저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Nvidia 2027 성장 기대치 7% 상향 조정 및 시장 대비 낮은 27배 PER을 근거로 엔비디아 재평가 주장. 유가 안정·금리인하 기대로 기술주 반등 예상, 현금 대기 자금 유입 전망. S&P500 7,300 상향 목표 제시. 엔비디아가 AI 인프라 플랫폼으로서 수혜 지속 주장.
다듬은 글
there's also questions by the way about some of these services and what how valuable they are to people right now and I know some CTOs and others who are actually saying, "You know, we're actually not getting the value out of some of these products that we were hoping to." Tom Lee just made one of his most aggressive calls on Nvidia yet.
And what he said points to something far bigger happening inside the artificial intelligence trade right now. Something most investors haven't even started to process. Especially stocks like Nvidia are going to actually re-rate higher. Because if Walmart and Costco trade at 37 to 45 times earnings because they're predictable, then Nvidia shouldn't be 27 times.
This is a bold call. But not his boldest. There are three reasons why Tom Lee thinks Nvidia will go 100 times. And the last one is the one most people aren't ready for. Reason number one, Jensen just raised 2027 growth expectations by 7%. And almost nobody noticed. A 7% upward revision to 2027 expectations might sound modest in isolation.
Nvidia is already one of the fastest-growing large-cap companies in history. Its revenue has gone from roughly $27 billion to well over $100 billion in just a few years. A 7% upward revision on top of that base isn't a small adjustment. It's billions of additional dollars in expected revenue that weren't in the model before.
And the market barely reacted. I think that as oil flattens or cools the curve flattens, those names are going to get a bid and they've gotten already cheap. We know the Mag 7's trading almost at a market multiple. Tom Lee is making a valuation argument that connects directly to Jensen's raised expectations.
Nvidia is trading at roughly 27 times earnings. A multiple that, as Tom Lee points out, is near average market levels for a company growing at this rate. Compare that to Walmart or Costco, which trade at 37 to 45 times earnings simply because their cash flows are predictable. The argument Lee is making is straightforward.
If the market rewards predictability with a 40 times multiple, then a company with Nvidia's growth trajectory and its deepening monopoly on artificial intelligence infrastructure deserves a dramatically higher valuation than what it's currently getting. Jensen's upward revision to 2027 estimates makes that repricing argument even stronger.
Because the earnings that justify a higher multiple just got bigger. The market hasn't priced this in yet. That's the opportunity. Reason number two is about why the macro setup is now pointing directly at Nvidia. And why the timing matters more than most people realize. This is a critical insight that changes how you should be reading the current market environment.
The painful part of the cycle, the forced selling, the institutional de-risking, the panic exits has already happened across most of the market. 70% of the S&P 500's biggest companies have already taken their beating. That's not a bearish signal. That's the precondition for what comes next. Something like 70% of the S&P's already been through a rolling bear market.
So, I I think the possibility is that the summer lull that could happen won't be as deep because we've already fallen 8%. A massive amount of institutional capital moved to cash and defensive positioning during this period. That money is sitting on the sidelines right now, waiting. When confidence returns and Tom Lee believes it's already returning, that capital doesn't trickle back in slowly.
It rushes back into the growth leaders first. And Tom Lee is specific about who those leaders are. Yeah, I think things have possibly changed, Scott, because this war pulled forward forward a lot of repositioning. You know, we know people have gone flat or raised cash. Uh and they were ready to own defensive positioning.
The Magnificent Seven technology names are leading the recovery, not following it, leading it. And there's a mechanical reason why Nvidia specifically benefits the most when that sideline cash finally moves. I think the leadership has been revealed in the last 6 weeks because since the war started the number one performing asset class has been crypto, Ethereum, and then um energy stocks, Mag Seven software, financials.
When oil prices spiked during the period of geopolitical conflict, technology stocks fell. Not because anything changed in their businesses, but because rising oil signals inflation and inflation means higher interest rates and higher interest rates compress growth stock valuations. That's the mechanical reason Nvidia sold off even as its business kept growing.
As oil cools, that pressure lifts. The same force that pushed Nvidia down is now working in the opposite direction. And the capital sitting in cash is about to have a very compelling reason to move. And then the negative correlation to oil was the highest in almost a decade for the Mag Seven, Ethereum, and software.
The Federal Reserve leaning toward rate cuts is specifically bullish for Nvidia's core revenue driver. Lower rates reduce borrowing costs for cloud companies and enterprises, which directly accelerates their spending on data center infrastructure. Nvidia's single largest and fastest-growing business segment.
Every rate-cutting cycle in modern history has been followed by an acceleration in corporate technology investment. Tom Lee's macro thesis applied to Nvidia's business model means the biggest driver of Nvidia's revenue is about to receive a tailwind from the exact Federal Reserve shift he's already anticipating.
But here's what makes Tom Lee different from every other analyst making bold calls right now. He's not just saying Nvidia goes higher, he's saying the entire market goes higher. And that Nvidia leads that move. And he's been saying it with a specific number in mind from the very beginning of this year.
But there should be some inflation shock coming. It sounds like the Fed is already thinking about you know, still leaning towards cuts, which is good. We'll get some signal 7,300 on the S&P 500, all-time highs. Called with conviction while most of Wall Street was still in panic mode. That's the context you need to understand before we get to the third reason.
Because if Tom Lee is right about the broad market, what he's implying about Nvidia specifically is far more extreme than most people realize. Well, I I think stocks are now on the process to go back to their all-time highs and I think maybe get to that 7,300 that we're expecting this year. Reason number three is about why Nvidia isn't a chip company.
And understanding that distinction is what's makes the 100X conversation stop sounding like hype and start sounding like math. Most people look at Nvidia and see a hardware business. A very profitable hardware business. But a business that competes in a product cycle, faces new competitors every few years, and eventually gets disrupted like every chip company before it.
That framing is wrong and it's costing investors who hold it, who don't understand what they actually own. Nvidia doesn't just sell chips. It provides the foundational infrastructure layer that the entire artificial intelligence industry is built on. There is a critical difference between being a participant in an industry and being the platform that the industry cannot function without.
Nvidia is the platform. Correct. Yeah, I think there's an inflation shock still coming. Um I think that the broadening is taking place. The broadening Tom Lee describes, where more industries adopt artificial intelligence and more companies participate in the recovery, is directly bullish for Nvidia's revenue in a compounding way.
Artificial intelligence adoption isn't confined to technology companies anymore. It's expanding into healthcare, logistics, financial services, manufacturing, and energy. Every company that adopts artificial intelligence at scale eventually runs on Nvidia hardware. The broader the adoption, the larger Nvidia's addressable market becomes.
The artificial intelligence hardware market was roughly $50 billion just a few years ago. Analysts now project it could exceed $400 billion within this decade. Nvidia controls somewhere between 70 and 90% of that market today. And the switching costs are enormous. Companies have built entire artificial intelligence pipelines around Nvidia's software ecosystem and developer tools.
Replacing that infrastructure takes years of re-engineering. Competitors exist, but they're not catching up as fast as the market assumes. Think about it this way. Microsoft's artificial intelligence tools run on Nvidia. Google's artificial intelligence infrastructure runs on Nvidia. Meta's large language models are trained on Nvidia chips.
Amazon's cloud artificial intelligence services depend on Nvidia hardware. The entire competitive race between the biggest technology companies on Earth is being run on Nvidia's track. Nvidia doesn't have to win the artificial intelligence race. It profits from every single company that does. The narrowing is I think more investors are going to buy US because the US has proven its resilience in this wartime period.
Plus the US makes more money in a war. And but the broadening is that more US stocks rise. More global capital is flowing into United States markets. The artificial intelligence super cycle is predominantly a United States story. And Nvidia sits at the exact intersection of every trend driving that capital allocation decision. Domestic resilience, technology leadership, and infrastructure dominance.
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