저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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스페이스X의 대규모 사모 펀딩(기업가치 2,500억 달러 이상)으로 기관들이 유동성 확보를 위해 엔비디아 등 대형 기술주를 매도할 것이라는 주장. 엔비디아 시총 5조 달러 이상으로 대부분의 펀드가 보유해 매도 대상이 되기 쉽다고 진단. 엔비디아는 하루 3.6% 하락, 소프트웨어·반도체·사이버보안 종목으로 매도가 확산될 수 있다고 봄. 이 흐름은 Anthropic, xAI 등 후속 대형 사모 라운드로 계속될 수 있다고 주장. 회복 조건은 MS·아마존 등 AI 투자의 수익화가 확인되는 시점이라고 제시.
다듬은 글
I am deeply concerned that it'll be that it'll become known as a market donor, a source of funds for those who want to buy these new companies and don't have the capital to do so. SpaceX is Nvidia's biggest threat right now. And Jim Cramer just explained exactly why. Just too easy to sell. Of course, this could be just the beginning and we are now are starting to see some software stocks roll over.
We saw some some a lot of semiconductors roll over this very evening and So, let's break down exactly what is happening here, argument by argument. Argument one, SpaceX is raising an enormous amount of private capital and somebody has to fund it. SpaceX is reportedly in the middle of one of the largest private fundraising rounds in history.
We're talking about a valuation that has surpassed $250 billion with billions more being raised from institutional investors who want a piece of the company before it ever goes public. Here's the thing about private deals like this. They don't work like buying a stock on an exchange. You can't just wire money and get shares the next morning.
These are complex negotiated transactions and the investors who want in are some of the biggest names in finance. The same funds and institutions that already hold massive positions in publicly traded technology stocks. So, where does the money come from? They don't just have billions sitting in a checking account.
They have to sell something to free up the capital. And when you need to raise billions quickly, you sell whatever is the most liquid, the most widely held, and the easiest to exit without moving the market too much against yourself. That is Nvidia. And that's just the beginning because what Cramer says at the end of this video, that's the part most people aren't prepared for.
We'll get to that in a moment. natural source of funds for these deals isn't a Chevron or JP Morgan or a Walmart or a Lilly or or maybe even an Apple. Sellers will most likely hit Microsoft and Amazon anticipating deals where they might be able to buy the stock back. Kramer names the likely targets, Microsoft and Amazon.
Because those are the companies directly involved in the deals. But he's already told us who the real casualty is. The investors who don't own Microsoft or Amazon still need to raise cash and they all own Nvidia. This is argument one. The SpaceX capital raise is so large that it forces institutional money to rotate out of public markets.
Nvidia, as the most successful and widely held artificial intelligence stock on the planet, is the first place they look. Argument two. Nvidia is the piggy bank of the entire artificial intelligence trade. Think about how Nvidia got here. Over the past three years, it went from a gaming chip company to the backbone of .
Every major technology company, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, is spending tens of billions of dollars on data centers and the majority of that spending flows through Nvidia's chips. That success created something unusual. Nvidia became one of the largest companies in the world by market capitalization, sitting above $5 trillion at its peak.
And because the artificial intelligence story is so universally understood and believed, almost every major fund owns it. Growth funds own it. Value funds own it. Sovereign wealth funds own it. Pension funds own it. When a stock is owned by everyone, it becomes the easiest thing to sell when you need cash.
Not because the story is broken, but because the exit is always available. Right now, Nvidia is looking like the biggest piggy bank in the world. While it's not going to be emptied, of course, it does have $5.2 trillion of other people's money as its market cap, you got to expect some withdrawals. dollars in market cap.
That's not a stock. That's a reserve currency for institutional investors. When they need liquidity, they make a withdrawal. And right now, SpaceX is the reason they're walking to the ATM. This is the core of argument two. Nvidia's size and universal ownership, the very things that made it the greatest stock of the artificial intelligence era, are now working against it.
The bigger you are, the more people sell you when they need money for something else. Now, here's what makes this particularly uncomfortable. We're not halfway through this cycle yet. SpaceX is one deal, but private markets are full of companies at similar valuations looking to raise capital in the same way.
Anthropic, xAI, Databricks, Stripe, each new mega round pulls more institutional capital out of public markets. And each time that happens, the sell everything liquid playbook gets repeated. Nvidia is at the top of that list every single time. Cramer said it could be just the beginning. He's right. The private market fundraising wave isn't slowing down.
It's accelerating. I hope Nvidia gets a chance to buy back so much stock. That'll be great, but you know what? It's going to be a little difficult right now. That's why I believe Nvidia's stock was down so hideously today. Down eight bucks, 3.62%. Down 3.6% in a single day, not because of an earnings miss, not because a competitor launched a better chip, not because Jensen Huang said anything wrong, because someone needed to raise cash for a private deal, and Nvidia was the easiest thing to sell.
Argument three, the sell-off is starting to spread, and Nvidia won't be the only casualty. What started with Nvidia is beginning to move through the rest of the technology sector. Cramer flagged it clearly. Software stocks rolling over, semiconductor names getting hit, cybersecurity companies losing ground.
This is a pattern that happens when institutional money rotates out of public markets in size. Here's why it spreads. When a large fund sells Nvidia to fund a private deal, that sale puts downward pressure on the stock. Other investors see the price dropping and start asking questions. Some of them sell, too, not because they want to, but because risk management systems automatically reduce exposure when a position drops below certain levels.
That mechanical selling then bleeds into correlated names. Other semiconductor stocks, other artificial intelligence plays, other high multiple technology companies. So, there's some cybersecurity, Olga club. We're going to see some other semis sold tomorrow. Big gains there, easy to take. Easy to take.
That phrase matters. When a stock is up 200% selling it feels almost responsible. You're locking in a massive gain. The fact that the story is still good doesn't change the math. If someone offers you a private deal in SpaceX, and all you have to do is sell a stock that's already tripled, that's a trade a lot of people will make.
This is argument three. The pressure on Nvidia isn't isolated. It's the leading edge of a broader rotation out of public technology stocks and into private market deals. The bigger those private rounds get, the more selling pressure lands on the most liquid names in the market. So, when does this end?
Here's the bottom line. Once we get through this period and we see that the buyers of Nvidia wares are making fortunes, we're hope-free. That will happen, or these companies wouldn't be spending all that money in the first place. Until then, though, it's a battlefield. That's the only condition that matters.
Not a new product launch, not a better earnings report, not Jensen Huang giving another great presentation in Taiwan. The stock recovers when the company spending hundreds of billions on Nvidia's chips starts showing the returns on that investment. When Microsoft's artificial intelligence products generate measurable revenue growth, when Amazon's data center build-out translates into margin expansion, when the spending justifies itself.
Until that moment arrives, Nvidia is caught in a trap of its own success. The best artificial intelligence stock in the world temporarily becoming the funding mechanism for the next generation of private artificial intelligence companies. I'll try to own it through these feelings of deals, but I have no illusions.
It's going to be a tough time for shareholders. Even Cramer, one of Nvidia's biggest believers, isn't pretending this is going to be easy. The story is intact. The fundamentals are strong. But right now, SpaceX isn't just competing with Nvidia for investor attention. It's competing for investor capital. And in that fight, Nvidia is the one writing the check.
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