저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시장 추가 폭락(20%) 위험 6가지 요인(자사주매입·배당 축소, 코로나 재확산·재개장 리스크, 정치 리스크, 중국 무역분쟁)을 검토하고, 대신 하락 시 분할 매수(적립식 물타기) 전략을 권한다. 디즈니·Dave&Buster's·AT&T 등을 사례로 들며 불확실성 속 정기 매수를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
the market crashing and this is double-dip recession JP Morgan analysts are saying hey maybe gold is a play a lot of people are saying what about Bitcoin we should get into Bitcoin to prevent their being affected by that hyperinflation that's bound to come because of the trillions of dollars that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome bowls printing with his money printer well a lot of these fears make sense but what I wanted to do in this video is do a quick breakdown as to my opinion when I read an article like this one this is six reasons why goldman sachs sees the market dropping and i wanted to kind of share with you what goes through my mind as I look at those six reasons so we'll make it pretty quick so let's hop right into it so when this article the first two reasons they suggest for the market dropping is a lack of share buybacks and a lack of dividends or a reduction in dividends and basically this is just saying that companies are going through a period of uncertainty and they're starting to hoard cash which makes a lot of sense I mean it's kind of what we're doing as well and when this pandemic kid in March I think a lot of us are like dude I need to get myself some more cash we're drawing on credit lines where we have um we're holding what we have we cut expenses we stopped paying things that we don't think we need to pay right now postpone whatever we can we take forbearance whatever we can do to protect ourselves and have more cash makes sense and the same thing is exactly what's happening with businesses with the exception of the fact that if you take mortgage forbearance apparently your credit gets dropped like 40 points which is pretty ridiculous but personally when I read articles like this I compare what they're saying to my investing goals for example if I'm investing in Apple yeah my Apple stock might not go up as much as it would if Apple would continue buying back its shares which just means creating more demand for their own stock right but apples winning in terms of the stay-at-home front more people are buying computers and Apple iPhones or whatever even though there are supply chain difficulties Apple is one of the leaders right now also when I look at other companies like Walt Disney who has cut their dividend I look at a company like Disney and see hmm we have a Netflix competitor without the Netflix premium of course it's anchored down by losses in the cruise ships and at the theme parks and even some production is stalled but to me I don't buy stock in Disney for their one point six percent dividend I buy Disney because I believe in the company over the next thirty years if instead I wanted a good dividend stock and I just wanted something that was gonna produce some cash for me right now and a stock that at least I reasonably thought would continue paying this dividend because they have been for the last thirty plus years and they've never reduced it in those last thirty years well then I've consider a stock like AT&T which at today's price under $30 one of my favorite price targets for this stock is 7% which means if I put $1,000 into AT&T stock right now I would get a check for $70 every single year doing nothing so I agree dividends getting cut and share buybacks not happening as much anymore is not so great I don't know if that's gonna cause a 20% decline let's see what else they have in the article the article cites reasons 3 & 4 as the roni Rona's and reopening risks and I have to give it to them this is a very real expectation this could very realistically lead the market to drop another 20% again I don't think it's going to drop as much as what we saw in March lows like March 23rd or even April 3rd but we might it might exceed those and here's why take a company like Dave & Buster's for example you know that company hood I mean I still go there play the video games that are all scattered around I mean that is like a perfect hotbed for contaminating surfaces and spreading germs amongst other people I don't know that I see Dave and Buster's coming back until there's a vaccine another stock is dirt cheap it's like just under $11 which based on their last year's earnings means you're paying about 4.7 times their earnings to own that stock which is extremely cheap it's almost kind of like it's priced for losses and that's because they might be experiencing losses see here's how this works Dave and Buster's makes about 1.3 billion dollars in revenue they get one point three billion dollars coming in in the form of you swiping that card and spending money on their carnival machines I mean they're gaming machines ya know wouldn't want to insinuate that by any means you're guaranteed to lose some of these games and when they bring in about 1.3 billion in revenue they tend to spend about 1.2 billion to service those machines and the leases for the space the problem is it's only gonna take about a 10% decline in revenues for them to have a loss with those operating costs now sure for every chicken sandwich that you don't serve you have less costs right so maybe their costs will go down a decent amount as well but it is quite possible a company like Dave & Buster's could see losses over the next year or two especially since you can't really take a massive Dave & Buster's store and just say alright we have 30% less demand let's just shrink the store by 30% no don't work do well now don't get me wrong I think Dave & Buster's is here to stay but that is a long play as in it might literally be two to three or more years to see substantial recovery in revenues and a company like Dave & Buster's know here's number five this article talks about political risks and number six the China trade deal risks which to me both of these are kind of political risks right Donald Trump is obviously fighting a Joe Biden for the election depending on which President gets elected we might see a lot of volatility in stocks a lot of folks were enthusiastic when Bernie dropped out of the race why because that sent a signal that wealthier people weren't going to get taxed as much but that came to the dismay of many people who don't invest in stocks but who would have loved a form of universal basic income or a more of a distribution of wealth and that makes sense and then we also know that Trump and the Republican Party are steadfast on making China pay for the roni Ronis which is a definitely a complicated thing think back to the last time we had a Chinese trade war the stock market was in the toilet but honestly probably the biggest thing that could actually cause this 20 or more percent sell in the stock market is the Chinese trade war that is we know that Donald Trump and Republicans are super steadfast at making China pay for the roni rona obviously their investigations going on everybody's waiting for more insights and data and trying to figure out what actually happened but at least they're pretty verbally assaulting China for the roni Ronis and only until recently was Trump a hundred percent certain that he was going to punish China well recently he did come out and indicate that he's right now torn on his existing Chinese deals and his agreements with China and what he wants to do about China but here's what I can tell you about uncertainty the last time the market fell substantially before the roni Rona's was at the end of 2018 and one of the biggest things that drove the stock market crash at the end of 2018 was China and the tariff battle that we were having between China you might remember hearing about that on the news pretty much as much as we hear about the roni Rona's now so what should you do right now in anticipation of potentially a Chinese trade war election drama we're opening drama roni rona drama and like what is this vaccine or AMA gonna come out what should we do well here's the thing anybody can talk big on YouTube but I like to actually provide practical information that can help you make money there's a lot of Fugazi magic and hope and dreams out there about how you can get passive income doing absolutely nothing my belief for example to you is that we should take all of these market fluctuations in stride and put a little bit of our money into the market regularly over time here's exactly how you can do it Disney had a red day today and using the simple platform wiebel I'm gonna go ahead and buy 10 shares of Disney right here that's about $1,000 worth of Disney stock it is after-hours so we're gonna go ahead and put in about 10 shares of that we'll make it good till cancelled extended hours buy and there we go now what am I going to do if the stock falls another 10% I'll buy another thousand dollars what am I gonna do if in six months the stock drops 20% I'll buy another dollars and it doesn't have to be Disney if you're too comfortable with buying a single stock that's totally okay you could pick up the vo Oh which I've shown you in other videos and you could trade it exactly the same way just for giggles let's go ahead and buy a share of the vo o right now that means today all I've put in in this video about twelve to thirteen hundred dollars into the market if I do this on every single time or every single red day the way I call it over time my wealth tends to go up as long as I don't get emotional if I see a red number the red number is just a signal to me that I should buy more and look I know it's easy to say just buy more but that's exactly why I recommend don't put your entire boat into the market all at once a little bit every time you got five thousand dollars to invest try it every time the market is red put five hundred bucks in do it for ten days in a row and it's probably gonna take you somewhere around thirty days to actually spend it off see how you feel and how much money you got in the market after those thirty days and as usual if any of this stresses you out get yourself life insurance and do it anyway you'll be better off in both ways if you do that join me the programs link below check out that coupon code and folks we will see in the next video
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