저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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연준 FOMC 금리 동결 후 Warsh 발언 해설. 시장이 이미 금리인상 2회분을 반영했고, 연준은 자산 규모보다 금리 정책을 우선하며 당분간 개입 자제. 금 고점 판단 및 약세장 예상, 단기 조정 후 실적 발표 이후 회복 기대. 장기적으로는 미국 주식 매수 권유. 고용지표 둔화 우려 및 AI 인력 구조조정 언급, 경기침체 가능성은 수년 내로 봄.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, I'm Meet Kevin. Welcome to another video that analyzes what Kevin Warsh said. First of all, I apologize . This is the only Fed meeting I didn't broadcast live . Over the past 8 years, I 've even changed holidays so that I could perform live on the Fed meeting , but this time it just wasn't possible .
However, I am presenting this complete video, summarizing the important points that Kevin Warsh said. I think this will be a very important thing for future meetings. Also, one of the reasons I didn't go live today is because Disney gave me the opportunity to see the bridge of the October 2024 ship, the 'Disney Treasure' .
They didn't charge me anything for it . That was really nice . I ca n't believe this. My whole family was very happy with this . If you want to see us , follow me on Instagram . I 'll post a photo of us on the bridge with the captain there . We feel honored, it's very special , big thanks to Disney.
They were very kind and this trip was a wonderful experience. Okay, now let's get back to what Kevin Warsh said. I'm going to tell this in reverse order . In retrospect , he mentioned two principles . He talked about the Goodhart principle and the Lucas critique. Both of these are important, and the short answer is that it rejects what the Fed is looking at or what to expect .
Do you understand? What does this mean? Goodhart's law states that when a measure becomes a goal, it is no longer a good measure . What the Lucas Critique says is that it is foolish to predict economic policy change based on past history, because people change their expectations once they see history .
In short, old data is now useless because people are changing their activities in anticipation of what the Fed or someone else will do . In other words , to put it simply, what Kevin Warsh is saying is , " People, stop being impatient . But really , you've been waiting 63 months for inflation to get back to 2% .
So your impatience is justified , but you don't have to rush into what we're doing right now , because we're the new Federal Reserve. We're a Federal Reserve, and we're not going to mess with the market to figure out what to do . We're so mysterious about what we're going to do or what's going to happen with Federal policy that we think the market is doing our job for us.
This is the biggest news from the Federal Reserve. This is something that we've been talking about for the past few days . If you've been paying attention , many of you know, and let's go into a little bit more detail about this, because it's important. If you've been paying attention over the past few days , you've heard me say that the market has already made the equivalent of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates twice.
To this meeting You've seen me say this many times before , you've heard me say it . The market has already reacted to market forces or market events . Like what's happening in Iran , the market has priced it in . What's happening in the price of oil, it's priced in . That's the reaction that Kevin Warsh wants, because he's basically a market supporter.
It's a ' laissez-faire' approach, which means that the hands of the market are free to act, invisible hands are guiding the market, not someone's words. It's also considered the Austrian economic approach , where we're not going to solve problems by printing money . If the market goes down, we're going to let the market go down , because what did Kevin Warsh tell us?
He told us that the primary tool that the Federal Reserve should use is not the balance sheet. He told us this very directly in this meeting . He said that the primary tool that we should use is interest rates, the policy rates. We shouldn't feed everything into the market. At this point, we don't need to act.
We Let 's think patiently , and save actions for the future if necessary. In short , what he's saying is, " Listen, the market has already priced in two interest rate hikes on the curve ." Borrowing costs for artificial intelligence have already increased . We'll see if those higher borrowing costs reduce the inflation we see in memory prices, chip prices, semiconductor equipment, server racks, etc.
Let's see how much of it reaches the real economy. In short , friends, we don't need to do anything because the market itself has already made everything more expensive . So, now that things are more expensive than ever , why don't you give us a little more time? In fact, his reaction over the past 6 weeks shows that, dude, it's really hot out here .
We are going inside. We go inside. It is humid. If I stay here, I'll be uprooted and left in a hurry . It's okay. Welcome to Jamaica. However , he said that the market's reaction activity over the past 6 weeks has been in the top ten percent of market reactions . So, think for a moment about what that means .
What he's basically saying is that the markets have reacted in the most aggressive way they've ever seen to the Federal Reserve's silence . They have reacted very strongly , and we are in that 10% of extreme reactions . I don't think I said it correctly, but I hope you get the point. What he's basically saying is , " Look, the market is reacting to what we're saying even when we're not saying anything .
It's reacting to the data correctly . Markets should react to the data, not what we're saying. That's what it does. So, what more do you want from us? The market has already factored that in . We're right ." It was useful, the market actually went up because Kevin Warsh didn't say anything about interest rate hikes, right?
He didn't explicitly say, " We're going to raise rates at the next meeting," he just mentioned that we may have to act in the future . Even Jerome Powell had predicted, "Yes, we may have to take action at the next meeting ." Then the yield curve will predict which direction there will be a shift , so it won't be a surprise.
Even Warsh said, " We're not in the business of surprising the market." But basically, if the market does our job, we're going to throw our hands up . It would be great if this worked because I want to remove this from the background . How wonderful is this? That TV just disappears . I have to say this is one of the really great features because if you've noticed , if you have windows near your bed , it's hard to put one there, right?
When the TV is not in use , it is light and when it is a nuisance . Oh, stay like that , get down. Stay down. Stay down . Oh. Maybe a child put something in it . Oh, wrong example. It's okay. I thought it looked really good when I got here, and I think it looks even better now in retrospect. I can tell with the Apple Watch.
Thank you, Apple. Although the bed is a little messy , to be honest , I don't think you'd be worried about it . And to those five women watching this , you don't seem to care . Earlier in the comments, some people said I was being sarcastic and that I should stop being funny . Otherwise, if I wasn't a clown, they would have enrolled in the course and used the coupon code 'Dear Cruise Red' .
I'm, well, I guess that's how I am. However, during the discussion, we saw the Nasdaq 100 index rejecting 675 . QQQ rejected 675 during his speech , briefly broke above 675, rejected 680, and then fell at the market close . The reason it collapsed was because the Federal Reserve said, " Look, you can't expect anything from us anymore." We are not going to say whether we will raise interest rates or not .
In fact, we are happy to hear the market reaction . That's exactly what Kevin Warsh said . "I am comforted by the way the market has behaved between meetings, " he said. "We'll know in the coming months whether we need to do more, " he says. " Look, we're waiting to see what happens with memory and chip prices and employment, " I think he's saying.
Remember that Kevin Warsh thinks it is possible to have both price stability and maximum employment. Of course, this is what every Fed leader thinks . It shouldn't be based on one or the other , it should be both . The problem is, he had previously said that we would only look at what is to the left of the decimal point when it comes to inflation .
That was a big mistake, and he changed it in this meeting . He said, " Look, we're going for 2% and above maximum employment . That's our goal. Right?" That's when people said, "Then why didn't they raise interest rates ?" They ask . "Oh, the bond market raised it for us ." Let's be honest . Although he says, " employment is stable." The unemployment rate remains stable.
You and I know that there was a boom in the first quarter in the ADP weekly employment data . Actually, it was at the beginning of the second quarter. It was like April and May. But, it is already going downhill. So, the question now is, will it stop or will it continue to go downward ? This is a big problem, isn't it?
That doesn't mean there aren't some jobs in artificial intelligence. I think someone misunderstood what I said in another video, which is that we are seeing or have seen more layoffs in the tech sector in 2026 than in 2025 . They say, "Oh, but Kevin, there are more jobs." I know. But, just because there are more new jobs in the engineering field doesn't mean there won't be layoffs in other areas of engineering , which could offset these jobs.
So, to some people it may feel like we're hiring more people, but overall we may actually be losing more jobs , which I think is true. I mean, I see, . But, I look at the artificial intelligence we're building with House Hack and Reinvest, and I think it's getting better every day. I think it will be much better early next year.
I know, this will take time. Then, we will be on an 18-month timeline to get a great product . That's our real estate AI software. You can check it out at househack.com or reinvest.co . You can also use the coupon ‘cruise red’ on it . However, I don't advertise it much . When I say, "Oh, this is so much better, " it becomes even more expensive .
And, I think it's already looking pretty good. Anyway , the thing is, we're hiring people in the AI field , but we've laid off a lot of people in non-AI fields because we don't need them anymore. We can build an AI team with a small team, like a small ship, with the same productivity or even more productivity , while at the same time .
But there's a limit to the number of people you can add to an AI team , right? You can start AI teams, but if there are too many people in an AI team , productivity will actually decrease. Based on what I've heard from industry experts, I can confidently say that the performance of artificial intelligence (AI) teams also resembles a bell curve.
For example , when working in a group of five or six people , you get more progress. But, when there are 30 people in a group , you come down the slope of that curve. There, productivity decreases due to disagreements or lack of coordination . This is very important because I think Kevin Warsh knows that the ADP data on the job market is not that stable.
Even though the bond market is currently very aggressive , you should be careful . Because, there is a possibility of sudden panic . A liquidity crisis occurs when people lose their investments due to high leverage, leveraged DTFs, and the highest margin debt in history, right? It could all be completely destroyed .
We are already starting to see such losses in the semiconductor industry . A Federal Reserve that wants to be less involved could actually make such situations worse . Therefore, if there is no Keynesian-minded central bank willing to act against the market when interest rate policy reaches zero , the crisis could become even more severe .
That's kind of the context in Kevin Warsh's case. Let me explain this in a simpler way . The market cycle is usually up and down , right? Let's take a closer look. Sorry, it was in there for a while. Here it is. Okay. Therefore, the market cycle is up and down . This is the normal market cycle. A Keynesian would argue that when the market goes up, we should avoid hyperinflation by raising interest rates, controlling spending, and slowing growth.
A Keynesian would say that when the market is down, we should print money, increase its velocity, and stimulate the economy. This is just economic theory, I don't take any sides in this . An Austrian economist would have the attitude of not involving the government in this . Fewer regulations mean that there are fewer barriers to how much companies can borrow or what they can do , which could lead to the market rising more quickly.
So, without a real bailout via a money printing machine , you're going to see an excessive boom and then an excessive bust. So, the Keynesian approach, which is probably most likely Powell's approach , is commonly called counter-cyclical . And the Austrian approach is generally considered pro-cyclical .
So, no matter what direction we go, as we move up, we will stimulate and elevate it. When we go down, we will go down. In my opinion, that is the reason why gold is suffering. People keep asking me to make a specific video about gold . I don't know what else to say about this , but I'm not surprised that gold has peaked.
To tell you the truth , I predicted it beforehand . I predicted it when Kevin Warsh was elected. I said, "This is the peak of gold." I think this could be an 8-year high for gold . That means you could be in an 8-year bear market for gold . We have seen long-term bear markets for gold before . Because Kevin Warsh is not going to run a money printing machine .
The people on his team are not going to operate the money printing machine . So, what does this mean in the short term? Okay, let's break it down . In the long run , I believe in America. I still think you can do 10-year races. We buy a lot of stocks in certain sectors that we think will perform well over the next 10 years .
We send buy alerts to everyone with Alpha membership status , and with that you get daily wealth. When I 'm not on vacation, you'll get live performances from the course members. Every course to grow your wealth is available to you in one package. It's like lifetime access, so it's a great subscription.
Join us before the prices go up on Friday night . So in the long run, buy. In the short term, the market doesn't like this lack of support . Remember, in mid-June , we didn't get support . We would normally be treated favorably by Jerome Powell , but we didn't get that . We got Kevin Warsh, and Kevin Warsh almost hit the top of the market .
I don't think it was a surprise . So, I'm not surprised that the market went into a sell-off after the war. I think we will get through this downturn , and the best time to invest is now until Monday. In the short term, I hope the market will recover after the earnings results come out next week, after absorbing the Federal Reserve's decisions, and everything will be a bit quieter next week .
Okay. Now, what else do I have about the Federal Bank ? Okay, let's look at this. Oh, and I also think the hardware sector will see a resurgence in the medium term. This is my opinion, keep it in your mind . Even though the videos are a bit longer , I try to explain more clearly . Sometimes people ask something and ask, " What does this have to do with what you said the other day?" They ask .
So, I'm trying to make those connections understandable , and it's a little difficult . But I'm trying my best . I write down my thoughts a lot . Whether it's on the 'Meet Kevin' app or somewhere else . In fact, you can see many of my notes on the Federal Reserve on the 'Meet Kevin' app . Please note that this is completely free .
You can go to the website app.meetkevin.com. To access this you must already have an account on the 'Meet Kevin' app on Android or the Apple App Store, after which you can access it on desktop. Even though I wasn't live , it was great to see so many of you using the Reinvest AI tool and following what the Fed was saying via wire feed .
This wire feed looks like this. I'll make sure you know. Look here, I'm exaggerating a bit . This will give you a brief overview of it. This is the wire feed. So, you can watch this. Important news. This looks at whether new ideas will spark better discussion in the room . Get it from families and businesses.
We are very careful about what we do , and that's it . Not only will you get minute-by-minute updates from Kevin Warsh, but also from the earnings results that are coming out . So, Microsoft, whatever Meta is . I can scroll up and look at Microsoft or Meta's earnings results. Meta expects total spending for 2026 to be in the range of 165 to 169 .
This is what news organizations use to curate news for you , and it's available to you for free on the ' Me Kevin' app . I mean, you know, you can download the 'Me Kevin' app for free , no need to buy lessons or an Alpha membership. That's right. You can continue to use this . Alpha Membership includes all the other things I mentioned earlier, right?
So, I think it looks really good . Okay. So, let's look at Powell, or sorry, not Powell, but Kevin Warsh . Obviously , markets are predicting a rate hike in September. In my view, as Kevin Warsh mentioned, they are waiting for more data . He said this. He says, quote, " We don't rely on any single piece of personal data ." We love trends , and our teams help analyze those trends to see what's really happening.
In my opinion, we are going to see a lot of data and geopolitical changes by the September 16th meeting . So, if we look at the predictions for September 16th, the chance of an interest rate hike was about 80%. Now if we look at September 16th, surprisingly , it has dropped to about 57.4% chance of a rate hike .
So, we have actually lowered expectations for interest rate hikes . Let me make sure I spelled it correctly, interest rate hike . If I said interest rate cut , please interpret it as interest rate hike . We have reduced interest rate hike expectations by 23% , yet the market has fallen . Oh! That is also very interesting .
The lack of guidance is like people saying, "Oh, we thought there was a king in the room to lead everything." Now everything depends on the stock market . But, even though people say the bond market contains a lot of information, it can lead to a recession because borrowing costs become too high, defaults increase, and the market can change quickly.
We can understand this by looking at the difference between 10 and 2 year bonds . The bond market can move very volatilely . The bond market is very aggressive right now . It's shocking . The 10- year bond rose 9.2 basis points . Basic 4.7 . We have crossed the resistance level of 4.57 . This is not good.
This has left us in a slightly bearish position due to the geopolitical crisis . Brent crude oil rose 7.8% to around $91. These are all bad things. You know, these are the things that cause inflation. The bond market is responding to this . Warsh kind of throws up his hands and says, " Let them go." That's why the futures market predicts, "Okay, whatever.
" We think the Federal Reserve doesn't need to do anything. The bond market is essentially doing just that . This increases costs for hardware businesses . They can pay those expenses. Big companies can definitely handle them. Small companies ca n't. So, eventually those higher interest rates will take their toll .
However, so far the economy has been stable . Let's now look at the real GDP of the Atlanta Federal Reserve. It is estimated at 1.5% for the second quarter. Honestly, I bet we would be in a recession if it weren't for AI. But, it is necessary to continue that hardware spending cycle to sustain the economy at these high interest rates .
So, there is a limit to how long our economy can last. I don't think negatively that we will go into a recession anytime soon , but I do think we need to be prepared for it in the next few years . That's why we're investing , because we think there are many opportunities in the next decade; When I look at the investments I make, I want to hold those companies whether there is a recession or not .
So, if we experience a recession , that's okay. We will buy more shares of those companies. We think those companies would do better if there was no recession. In any case , we believe they will survive the recession. So, these are some ideas. So, to sum up my summary on the Federal Reserve , I know this is a topic that you'll enjoy, both from a novice and an expert perspective.
People will say, " That's it." " I'm leaving the video ." "I'm done with the video ." "I'm leaving ." "I'm not a noob." "Don't call me a noob ." This is not to call you a newcomer . I feel that if we could summarize the things we are talking about , it would reduce the problem . So, the novice and expert comparison is useful to me .
Okay, let's get to the point. A newcomer would say the following about this. Did you know? We need to zoom in a little more. That's all. Okay. A novice would say that the Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates because Donald Trump persuaded Kevin Warsh not to cut interest rates . Even if Donald Trump did it , the expert knows what really happened.
The expert knows that if the Federal Reserve were to raise interest rates today, one hike would be the equivalent of three hikes. Why? Because the bond market has already priced Treasury yields in at an average of two interest rate hikes . In short , interest rates have already risen due to Iran and crude oil prices .
The market is already doing its job , selling goods at higher prices as inflationary pressures mount. Jerome Powell is the complete opposite. Jerome Powell will give us a reaction function. We are going to do this . We are going to do this . Kevin Warsh is the opposite. He is the one who says, "The market took care of it .
We do n't have to do anything ." End the federal system . This is part of Project 2025 anyway . It 's amazing to think about. Anyway, this is the difference between a beginner and an expert . Okay, let's do one more thing. Time. Okay. A beginner would say the Federal Reserve didn't raise interest rates today because, oh, I'm confused .
I'm sorry about that . What I really want to talk about is how long it takes them to get the data on costs , right? So, I'll say it again. A novice would say that the Federal Reserve didn't cut interest rates today because Donald Trump urged them not to , but an expert sees it another way. The Federal Reserve believes that the rise in memory prices and AI prices is temporary .
Eventually, supply chains will recover and those skyrocketing memory prices will fall to their lowest point in history. Those Nvidia chips that doubled in value last year won't last . Those prices will go down. So, we are not going to overreact to AI-induced inflation or temporary things like war . Instead , we will sit back and watch, letting the market do its job .
Some might argue that this is like making the same temporary inflationary mistake. What do you think ? To be honest , this is also a fair criticism . Okay, let's see if we can do one more thing. To be honest, it's almost as if the market takes care of everything . We don't have to do anything . This will be temporary anyway.
This is almost like that . The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) was not our main basis. The job market is stable. But, I think that's a lie. So, I'm going to say it openly . Early adopters say the Federal Reserve does not need to change interest rate policy today because the job market remains stable and inflation will eventually decline .
But experts say, " No, the Federal Reserve actually realizes that the job market is weakening ." If you look at the 'Meet Kevin' app , you may notice that the graph of ADP weekly employment growth is trending downward. If that graph continues to decline, the Federal Reserve will have to face an employment crisis very soon .
They don't want to unnecessarily raise interest rates and worsen job losses . Instead, they throw up their hands and say, " The market itself raised interest rates ." I can tell you for sure that behind the scenes, they are saying, " We need to look at what's really happening in the labor market ." We may face more job losses than we expected .
Okay, great. I think this is all very useful information. I like those abbreviations quite a bit. They also help me summarize my thoughts . Now, I'm going to celebrate my vacation again . Go check out my photo tour of the pier. Dude, I'm still excited when I think about it . Oh. That's very nice . Disney does n't do cruise tours like this.
So, I feel very blessed. Thank you. For this, I sincerely thank the audience . I don't know if this has anything to do with it , but I'm grateful to all of you who continue to watch these videos . My thanks especially to both of you who watched the video to the end. Because I'm going to get to the point , I understand .
You are hiding something. I don't know . However, I think there was context to it, let it go. , best wishes .
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