저자: DanIves외진행자·출연자 · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 엔비디아가 GPU 독점적 지위와 막대한 현금 보유(연 약 3000억 달러 현금창출)로 닷컴 버블과 달리 구조적으로 강하다고 주장하며 단기 주가 변동은 노이즈라고 봄. 인플레이션·금리 우려에도 연준이 대폭 인상하지 않을 것으로 보고, 엔비디아 밸류에이션(주당 이익 기준)도 과도하지 않다고 평가. 출연자들은 PCE 발표 후 반등과 시장 과민반응을 언급하며 장기 AI 수요는 지속될 것이라는 입장. 연준 정책 변화(매파 인식)가 최대 리스크로 지목됨.
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and for someone like myself that covered.com bubble 90s covered you you're talking about the average company was trained 30 times revenues 100 times earnings so every time someone Compares like oh Cisco 99 you go to your Christmas dinner like the uncle whatever it's like oh look at Cisco 99.com look at Nvidia I'm like yeah but here's the difference was there 2 trillion AI cacks who's actually spending it techcom is 1.2 trillion of cash and they generate 300 billion of cash a year this isn't a startup funded weight 90 as some man went through it Dan Ives a tech analyst emphasizes that nvidia's unique position in the AI Market makes it a strong long-term investment despite short-term Market volatility he argues that unlike past Tech bubbles Nvidia is cash-rich and poised for growth due to increasing demand for gpus I've stresses that stock fluctuations are often noise and that the real value lies in long-term perspective on AI Innovation he also highlights the current market volatility acknowledging concerns over inflation and interest rates but believes the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike rates significantly IES remains confident that the fundamentals of Aid driven companies like Nvidia are solid despite temporary Market reactions I think that is a historical view not recognizing that we're in a fourth Industrial Revolution and there's only one company in the world that has those chips like so so when when it comes down to it I could argue for a stock that could trade 30 times earnings if you start to get to a point where they're doing $550 $6 earnings 180 200 when you start to look at oute is is not that's not egregious so did ghouls be 12 years of a rate hike next year because that was sort of entering the conversation tors and slock over at a follow mentioned that in a research report on Wednesday but the DAT of today plus schools be comments does that sort of take that off the table in your view for a little while right until we get data that right exactly I mean that so when I looked early this morning the handles were maybe down 50 or so and then after that pce number came in um cooler that was down about 24 and I don't know what the rest of it was as the day went on maybe those interviews that could definitely be it CU those were very bullish but uh I think also some progress on the debt ceiling that helped as well and as well as the magnitude of yesterday just kind of that selloff was getting a little bit sloppy so um I feel a little bit better it's nice to see that CPE number come in or pce number come in a little bit better but I still think the trend is toward inflation and not a lot of not a lot of cuts right yeah I I look if you the numbers bear out what the market really how they reacted to the pce you went from you you basically rallied almost 260 basis points from 950 a.m.
until the markets then peaked up and then and then ween just small off to the end of the day but that translated into a major reversal over where we saw Futures so you you know you you you looked at your screens in the morning before the markets open and you said wow um this is kind of sloppy and we're probably going to go into the weekend and people are now reassessing their view of the FED but Karen I think you're right I mean sloppy in terms of how yesterday traded or how the couple days have traded really since those those uh those power comments I think that has as much to do with anything I think markets are jittery uh you look at the 5 day on the S&P it's it's you know we're down 3% I mean it's been even with this move today it's been a rough period after such an extraordinary period for equities where the the Assumption was that inflation was your friend we had a number of other prints uh going into the FED meeting that that had you believe that while inflation isn't out of the picture uh and disinflation is certainly a thing of yesterday that the FED is not going to be hiking having said that that is the biggest risk for 2025 at this point and it's not that the FED will hike it's that the perception of the Fed will change M yeah I agree with that I think the important thing is they're not going to be hiking so whether they're cutting by you know Twi twice or four times not really the issue the issue is do they hike but Powell the day of the meeting said that rates are meaningfully restrictive right so he agrees with gouby he agrees with Williams I think that and he also doesn't want unemployment to tick up so you do have the powerp put like that's the way I saw it I thought the markets totally overreacted did to the commentary I get it he he was a lot more hawkish than the market wanted him to be I don't think the narrative has changed economy does worse he's there he'll cut more aggressively and he's got plenty of tools or plenty of time in plenty of uh plenty of basis points to actually cut I think the market got it wrong but the market always overreacts I mean there is still the sort of the conundrum the the you know squaring the circle that needs to be done between raising your inflation forec and taking down the number of rate cuts and that's still even with the gby comments Mike that puzzle Still Remains yeah I think I think that's definitely true I think what Karen was probably also referring to is that you know a lot of the secular pressures that are inflationary it's not like those things are are just simply going to go away we are at relatively full employment so of course you know labor costs are something that we still obviously have to keep an eye on I mean to me though I think the important thing just in terms of what Tim was saying which is that the market is clearly jittery that bad news uh was really greeted with a very severe knee-jerk reaction I mean dropping 300 basis points in the S&P over the course of two hours sort of speaks to the fact that people might be a little concerned about the valuations right yeah and I think it's really interesting because even if we think about Optimus that's going to need gpus and if we talk about a million Bots I mean it seems like the the demand for the product is insatiable and it's not slowing if we're going to come up up with gpt7 one day but it's not but that's and the and the point it's it's people not understanding just like with a paler it's not understanding Jensen who he is individually and the culture see people they don't understand the culture of that company is they don't sit there and be like oh look where we are today options you know I could get a crazy car they view things like we got to continue to continue to innovate and that's the difference between them and a you know call pseudo government agency Intel right when you look at Intel it's exactly the shame that happened to Intel that essentially became almost a Beltway regulatory agency in the context of nvidia's uh stock movement we've obviously seen it go through a lot of ups and downs I'm assuming a lot of that is an noise to you because if you believe gpus are inevitable and they have a monopoly the stock could be further from it's noise and I hate again you say noise and then someone come out like no you loved it at 140 now it's 130 I'm like yo like when you like the point is that's like the sports fan like watching game like second quarter being go like it's just like this is a long game yeah like my view is it's a long game the only time that I get Negative if something structurally Chang changes in a name then that's you you have to like look at the thesis but when you look in video when the checks continue to be 15 to1 demand and supply and you look only at 4% Enterprise have gone down the AI path and where numbers ultimately go I'm not saying you don't have knee-jerk tariff worries stocks down people downgrade but at the end of the day my view is like this is a long game that we're playing here in terms of where but it comes down to like look man I could give you examples like nasdaq's 5000 yeah and you're telling people like remember this dude I made plenty of bad calls I'm sure you know people be like oh what about this call buy like NASDAQ 5000 like bullmark 2010 2011 oh what about tarp this fed 2012 oh Europe up debt Greek de crisis it's over the oh look at the FED deficit dude it's not sustainable here's the deal I get it but it's just like when we talk about with like Black Swan event Tokyo when I was there for Tokyo Black Monday just happens I was there this is it currency trade done you know it's like has anything structurally changed yes or no the money on the island 67 trillion many institutional investors are still very not well positioned you're going to have volatility but it's like when I look at things like yesterday and pal and like you go from three or four cuts to two here's the question are we still cutting yes are we hiking no are we in a cycle where like we're cutting 100 bips 125 next like 12 18 24 months yes soft Landing yes so AI re ution yeah Trump coming in deregulatory yeah that's why I'm just not someone that sits there like tomorrow night like oh is the Fed oh my dude the government's going to shut down like oh I'm here I'm like looking on CI to to see like what the betting odds are it's just like that's the stuff dude those are like they're like those are like the demon type things that mess with the thesis right Dan Ives a tech analyst is bullish on nvidia's Long term prospects citing its dominance in the GPU market and critical role in the AI Revolution he views short-term stock fluctuations as noise emphasizing nvidia's strong cash reserves and consistent demand for its products particularly in Aid driven applications like GPT and autonomous bot despite concerns about inflation and interest rates Ives remains confident believing that the Federal Reserve will focus on preventing unemployment rather than aggressively hiking rate he sees nvidia's position in the growing AI sector as a major factor driving its future success how will Nvidia continue to leverage AI technology for growth what effect could future Federal Reserve policies have on nvidia's stock
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