저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Marc Faber는 인플레이션이 구매력을 침식해 서민을 가난하게 만들고 있으며, 2022년 현재 경기와 자산시장은 긴축으로 인해 하락 국면이라고 진단한다. 자산시장 현황: S&P500은 연초 대비 약 22~23% 하락, 나스닥은 30% 이상 하락, 유럽 시장은 달러 기준 30~35% 하락, 신흥국 시장은 수년째 약세장이라고 설명한다. 글로벌 유동성(통화량)이 수축 중이며 이 때문에 자산가격이 하락하고 있다고 본다. 채권: 과거 약세장에서는 국채가 강세를 보였으나 이번에는 아니다. TLT(장기 미국채 ETF)는 18개월 전 약 170달러에서 100달러 아래로 하락했고, 오스트리아 장기채는 50% 이상 떨어졌다. 안전자산 도피처가 없다고 지적한다. 기업실적: S&P500 이익 추정치는 아직 올해와 내년 상향 상태지만 실제 실적은 둔화되기 시작했다고 본다. 엔비디아, 페덱스 등의 실망스러운 실적과 신저가 하락을 근거로 실적 하향 조정이 대규모로 나올 것이라 예상한다. 자산가격 하락이 소비를 위축시키는 수요 파괴도 과소평가되고 있다고 주장한다. 물가와 소득: 태국 북부에서 관찰한 바로는 연금 수령자들의 외식이 줄었고, 독일 영상 사례에서 식료품 바구니 가격이 1년간 39% 상승했다는 점을 든다. 임금과 연금은 이를 따라가지 못한다. 정책: 중앙은행이 2009~2021년 사실상 잠들어 있었고, 인플레이션을 일시적이라 했던 판단이 틀렸다고 비판한다. 금리 인상 중단을 주장하는 목소리(유엔 등)에 대해서는 인플레이션이 일시 둔화될 뿐 다시 올라간다며 반대한다. 현재 금리를 상당 기간 높게 유지해야 하며, 이는 저금리 환경에서 자란 세대에게 고통을 줄 것이라 본다. 현대통화이론(MMT) 등 정책 담론을 허황되다고 비판하며, 금융업계가 자산가격 상승으로 수수료를 얻기 때문에 이런 논리를 지지했다고 지적한다. 종합: 단기적으로 자산가격과 실적 하락, 높은 금리 유지, 인플레이션 지속에 대한 비관적 전망이다.
다듬은 글
the price over one year had gone up by 39 percent I don't know any wages that go up by 39 percent and the pensions don't go up by 39 and so four cents you can ask your viewers they can all check with their parents who are pensioners or so all of them suffer at the moment problem of inflation it erodes the purchasing power of Ordinary People it enriches rich people it's unusual I've been through so many bear markets starting with 1970 to 70 the end of the 69 70 bear Market the financial markets uh will move according to what central banks will do to a large extent but also they will move according to fundamentals in the world I think if I look at the whole world in terms of economic activity we have not recovered to the peak that occurred in 2018 2019.
we had the recovery moves but let's say if you look at Travel statistics international travel statistics in most countries we're still down very substantially and if you look at valuations the valuations are still very high they have come down somewhat I have to point this out because as you know the s p is down 22 to 23 this year and the NASDAQ is down over 30 percent and the European markets if we measure them in US Dollars they're all down around 30 35 percent and so forth and Emerging Markets they have been in Bear markets for several years now now we also have to look at individual sectors in some sectors have performed better than others but basically what has happened is liquidity in the world Global money supply has been contracting is still at a very high level but it's been contracting and when this happens asset prices tend to go down and we had this tightening mode in the world among central banks uh the central banks were sleeping essentially for 12 years between 2009 and 2021 and even in 21 a year ago they all said oh inflation is transitory now we may have to look at exactly did did they do it by let's say in did they do it intentionally oh were they so dumb you know this is two different things because if you look at the action of politicians today frequently you ask yourself do these characters actually want to destroy the economy or are they simply so ignorant that they take measures that are negative for the economy then there is a question of corporate earnings in some emerging economies corporate earnings have come down in some sectors they have come down but say for the s p the estimates by our brilliant analysts are still up for the year and they're up for 2023.
so uh I asked myself from my observations about economic activity around the world which is down there's no question about this uh can the s p earnings still be up this year and next year when in fact this year the earnings have already started to decline but the analysts haven't adjusted yet and when I see the results of disappointing earnings say in the case of Nvidia or in the case of FedEx and stocks stumble to new lows then I think that this will be a factor that will wait on the markets going forward when the earnings disappoint and what is not considered sufficiently is the demand destructions the destruction that is taking place a from falling asset prices you know the last few years we had this money illusion everybody got richer who owned real estate who owned collectibles art and stocks bonds and so forth because everything was going up now everything is going down and in concert some assets are going down more than others but it's unusual I've been through so many bear markets starting with 1970 to 70 the end of the 69 70 bear Market 73.74.
81.82 and so was normally when markets went down bonds rallied treasury bonds rallied not necessarily junk bonds but treasury bonds rallies that was also the case in the Great Depression but this year you look at the TLT this is the long-term treasury ETF the symbol is TLT it's down from 18 months ago from 170 to now below 100.
in Austria the long-term bond is down more than 50 percent so there was no place to hide for asset holders and whereas A very wise hedge fund manager actually runs the large side from in the world at the end of 2021 wrote cash is trash now he's saying she's still at this tune so you understand this has been a brutal decline in asset prices which will impact the consumption of many people because many people lived from asset price increases number two someone out of Germany just sent me a video uh an hour ago and it shows uh an analyst he took a basket of goods in the supermarkets from butter cheese and so forth all kinds of items and soap and whatever the household needs for the daily life all together the price over one year had gone up by 39 percent I don't know any wages that go up by 39 percent and the pensions don't go up by 39 and so forth and so on and so the consumption is impaired is is shrinking because people don't have the money look I live in the north of Thailand Shanghai Thailand is a famous for the tourism among young people and elderly people but it is also famous as a retirement country it's consistently voted as one of the most Pleasant countries to retire and to live because the price level is a reasonable and so my friend he owns a restaurant the restaurant is a French restaurant that is bistro style it appeals to everyone it's simple outside you can smoke and inside there's no smoking and so forth I can observe that the pensioners starting around the 25th of the months frequent that restaurant much less than when they get the pension they get the pensions usually around the fifths to tens of the months from Germany Switzerland and so forth and so on so then they have some purchasing power but not the same as before because their cost of living has also gone up but the pensions from Germany Switzerland and so forth in Switzerland they haven't gone up I don't live from my pension because I'm a working man but uh I I can tell you you can ask your viewers they can all check with their parents who are pensioners or so all of them suffer at the moment all of them and so I think the corporate earnings will begin to disappoint massively and how do we get out of it well as you said before there is no easy answer because the two things essentially the authorities can do well there are many things they can do and that it will give you a solution uh one of the things they can do is they could stop increasing interest rates as some people are calling for including the UN that is the best stroke I ever heard that the UN is calling for central banks to stop increasing interest rate what is funny about this is it coincides with the UN having concluded kind of a joint venture with the world's economic forum as if the world economic Forum was ever interested in the faith and in the prosperity of the small guy in the world I said it's a complete joke but anyway that they can do they can stop increasing interest rates say in the Western World inflation is running at say between seven and fifteen percent depending that on the household and depending on how many children you have on your eating habits and so forth and so on but interest rates are still say in the U.S at three percent and in Europe the next to zero in Switzerland they're at zero uh if they don't increase interest rates then inflation may slow down the temporary you know for six months or one year but it will then go up again and so you'll get more and more inflation and less and less purchasing power and this is the problem of inflation it erodes the purchasing power of Ordinary People it enriches rich people and you will get a mess but maybe later on or they keep on increasing interest rates until inflation really slows down but they have to maintain interest rates at a fairly high level for a while and then there will be pain especially given the fact we have an entire generation of people they grew up and starting and started working and investing and buying a home in an environment of artificially low interest rates since 2009 interest rates in the western world have been far below of what they should have been but this is uh this has happened because uh vulcness the Vogue culture has also invaded economics and for a while a great fashion was to talk about the modern monetary Theory and the great deal of academics they sort of endorsed this nonsense I call it because throughout history governments have gone bust when their debts became overly burdensome so to claim that the government can borrow endless money is of course total nonsense but this was endorsed and the worst part of it the investment Community the fund manager the strategist the analysts they all uploaded because these people in the financial sector including myself but the people in the financial sector they benefit from rising asset prices their fees go up the performance fees go up so they all upload they upload idiots who are sitting in central banks who do these things and at the end when it's proven that these idiots in central banks these morons are completely wrong they give them a Nobel prize in economics like today Mr Panther this is the best joke I've heard in a long
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