저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Marc Faber는 현재의 금리 인상이 인플레이션 대비 여전히 너무 낮고, 장기간 인위적 저금리와 대규모 통화 발행이 자산 인플레이션을 낳았다고 주장한다. 금리 및 통화 정책: 2011년 이후 제로금리와 대규모 양적완화가 지속됐고, 유럽의 마이너스 금리는 부작용을 낳았다. 연준 기준금리 4%는 물가 9% 상황에서 긴축이 아니며 최소 9~9.5%는 되어야 한다고 봤다. 예금 금리가 인플레이션보다 낮으면 예금자 자산이 매년 약 5% 줄어든다고 설명했다. 채권과 주식: 10년물 국채금리는 2020년 5월 0.57%에서 4% 이상으로 급등했다. 과거 약세장에서는 채권이 방어 역할을 했지만 이번에는 주식과 채권이 함께 하락해 이례적이라고 평가했다. 인플레이션 원인: 인플레이션은 정부 재정적자와 통화 발행에서 비롯된다고 주장했다. 코로나 대응 재정지출과 봉쇄가 이를 키웠고, 연준은 인플레이션 압력을 과소평가했다고 비판했다. 사회보장 및 연금: 사회보장 생계비 조정(COLA)과 연금 기금의 대규모 미적립 부채가 인플레이션을 고착화하며, 결국 연금 부족분을 메우기 위해 돈을 더 찍게 될 것이라고 전망했다. 과거 사이클: 1970년대에는 곡물, 커피·코코아, 귀금속, 에너지 순으로 상품 강세장이 이어졌고, 에너지와 귀금속은 1980년 1월 고점 후 급락했다. 과거 사례를 통해 인플레이션은 직선이 아니라 오르내리며 진행된다고 설명했다. 정치·경제 신뢰도: 정치인 자질이 최악이며 통계도 신뢰하기 어렵다고 비판했다. 현 젊은 세대는 35세 시점에 부모 세대보다 소득과 자산이 적다는 연준 자료를 제시했다. 결론: 하이퍼인플레이션 가능성에 대한 질문에는 정치인 수준을 근거로 비관적인 입장을 보였다.
다듬은 글
the tunes to what is happening in the U.S they are convinced the U.S will go to war with China hey are we gonna go into hyperinflation I think based on the politicians I see that we have in my view this is the lowest quality of politicians well I just want to say one thing people talk about the hawkish fed and the hawkish ECB and central banks and so forth uh we have to look at this matter in the perspective from a longer term uh point of view because today we have a generation of people who grew up amidst artificially low interest rates that were distorting economic life in other words you had in the in Europe you had negative interest rates Okay negative interest rates is a kind of a absurdity that the roads out of the so-called modern monetary syrians of us which is not modern at all because it was already used the example of negative interest rates in the 1920s this year negative interest rates this is criminally my opinion because it led to a lot of inflationary symptoms like asset inflation and in the U.S we had next to zero interest rates since 2011 and massive money Printing and this then kept interest rates artificially low for far too long and when inflation began to manifest itself long before Ukraine you know the central Banker says they all say oh it's the world where interest rates increasing and inflation is increased began long before that in any event uh the adjustment recently is in terms of percentage increase huge the 10-year treasury note went from 0.57 percent in May 2020 to now over four percent the huge increase I mean percentage-wise in a short period of time but when you talk about hawkish you're saying interest rates on the FED fund rates at four percent is hawkish when inflation is at nine percent you must be joking interest rates should be at nine and a half no steals money the central banks have stolen money from honest people who had their money on deposit because if inflation is uh nine percent and your deposit rate is say four percent you still lose five percent per annum let's put it this way in the 1930s and already before we had the the rise of the mafia which was largely due to the prohibition time so it created black market and a second economy a black economy or underground economy the government won it and then they adapt adopted the message of the mafia so the idea of the mafia has taken over Washington D.C and politicians do nowadays although the democratically elected they take measures that are dictatorial and this was financed by Central Bank spirit I also want to add one thing I started to work in 1970 so I experienced the tail end of the 1969-1970 bear Market right then experience the 7374 bear Market the 8182 bear Market and the bear Market the crash in 87 and the bear Market in Japan after 1989 and the Asian crisis and the bear Market 2000 2001 and the great financial crisis 2007-2008 in each these instances stocks went down but treasury bonds rallied now this year or starting a year ago treasury bonds have gone down and stocks in other words if you had a mix of bond stocks in previous recessions bear markets for stocks bonds gave you some protections because they rallied this time around both went down this is most unusual the FED denied the fact that this was a bubble and they are still in denial Powell also underestimated the severity of the inflationary pressures but is it a federal reserve and like ECB or political institutions they'll do what the voters tell them to do now to be fair to Biden he probably gave the approval to Titan but he has to because the government's action I'd like to make a statement inflation is always due to governments 1800 to 1900 in the U.S the federal government was very small no inflation we didn't have a central bank no inflation it came from massive fiscal deficits the latest bout came from a huge Federal deficit in the quest to fight covet which was man induced government induced it didn't come from a fish market and meat market in Wuhan it came from Laboratories very clearly and it was used as an excuse to spend a lot of money and to lock up people to control people and so forth and so on but who is responsible for all this you think any of these government clowns will ever go to prison no they get promoted the worse you are in government in terms of your ability the higher you will go in my view it has collapsed already but you understand statistics are made by offices and if you look at politicians today they all lie all of them and why shouldn't the statistical Office of the US be honest they're all liars and politically they can show the economy is expanding yeah look if I send the check to each American a thousand dollars present tomorrow then they go and spend it then GDP goes up is dishonest gross my government debt has gone up by a thousand dollars per capita so you can do a lot of fiddling around with the economy the reality is most people today and we have statistics published by the Federal Reserve people who are 35 years old they earn less than their parents at 35 years of age and they have less money than the parents have at 35 years of age statistics published by the Federal Reserve everybody can go and look it up one of the FED chairman said you know inflation is like a toothpaste once you let it out of the tube it's very difficult to put it back in and I think that we have today assist them of the social system where governments want to be re-elected by offering Comfort to the to the voters in other words you have a problem I want to be re-elected I say okay I will solve your problem we have an inflation problem I give you more money so I send you a check for the thousand dollars because the gasoline price has gone up you think it solves inflation it perpetuates inflation it increases inflation because I hand over money to you and I print it and we have social security and Social Security is adjusted to inflation cost of living allowance adjustments Cola now this year they go up a lot died and of course he cleanse it's because of me nonsense is built into the Social Security Programs discuss the cost of living adjustments and but of course the adjustments are less than the real rate of inflation but it goes up so people have more money to spend so you understand the system is so much entrenched into having to have some sort of inflation and having to print money because now the Pension funds are in deep they all fail a lot so they have huge unfunded pension fund liabilities these unfunded liabilities are going to be very painful unless you can refill them with printed money but I want to make clear you know in the 70s that's why I mentioned the movement of interest rates between 69 and 71 and then between 73 74 and the low in the 75-76 when these in in a cycle of inflation things move up over time but they don't move in a straight line they move up and down and up and down the 70s commodity cycle was high okay grain inflation 71 to 73 there were food shortages but then wheat corn soybeans all peaked out in 73.
they never made a new high in the 70s okay then came cocoa and coffee they at the pool Market until 77 and then they collapsed and it was over precious metals uh Gold Silver Platinum and also copper accompanied by the energy bull market the energy bull market started in 73. and then who is uh interruptions it went down a while after 73 but then it shot up again they peeked out in 1980 the energy bull market precious metals bull market peaked out also in January 1980.
I remember because they collapsed it collapsed massively we had lots of margin calls anyway and so uh to say are we gonna go into hyperinflation I think based on the politicians I see that we have in my view this is the lowest quality of politicians we
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