저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
2020년 말 기준 전자상거래 비중이 소매의 19.7%에 불과해 온라인 전환 여력이 크다고 주장. Etsy는 2024년까지 매출 2배 이상 성장 및 광고 비용 전가 모델로 마진 개선 가능성이 있어 우수하다고 평가. Wayfair는 마진·광고비 개선이 확인되기 전까지 주가가 횡보 중이라 리스크가 있으나 장기 보유 의향 표명. 두 종목 비율을 Wayfair 1:Etsy 2.5~3으로 제시.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, me Kevin here. Let's talk about two must-own stocks for easily the next uh 5 years and at what ratio to buy these. You got to have these in your portfolio, but I want you to know about the pros, the cons, and well, the risks because after all, I'm a dude on YouTube and both these companies could just go bankrupt or they'll two to three X.
And for you to be a long-run holder of this company or heck, maybe even trade it, you got to know what's going to move the needle. What's going to make a difference? Let's talk about both of these. They are both e-commerce stocks. And while retail sales across the country went up 3% this holiday season, at least looking at MasterCard's latest or preliminary retail sales data for the holiday season, at the same time we saw that 3% growth overall, e-commerce sales skyrocketed 49% compared to 2019.
Now, obviously, I'm sure COVID had a lot to do with this, but here's something that immediately made me go, "Whoa. I didn't realize this." What's crazy is that even though e-commerce exploded, obviously, we're still in the pandemic and e-commerce has exploded, e-commerce still, and again, still in the pandemic, e-commerce still only makes up 19.7% of retail sales.
That means right now only one out of five of every dollars is actually being spent online. In my opinion, that number should triple in the next decade as more of our money shifts online. And And personally, as you watching this video, ask yourself, how much money are you spending in physical locations relative to what you were spending online?
Personally, 98% of my spending is online. Suit jacket, groceries, cameras, computers, you name it, it's online. The fact that nationwide only 1/5 of our dollars thus far are being spent online to me says, "Phew, we got some sweet, sweet growth heading our way." And this is why we want to be positioned before that big 3x potential transition comes for getting that retail bulk online, which you'd think it would have already happened this year, but no, again, only one in five dollars online.
It's crazy. That That is up from only 13% of of dollars before that were online in 2019. So, it's still up, but it's still a sliver, right? Anyhow, if you agree with with this movement online, you're going to position yourself with certain stocks. And in this video, we're going to talk about specifically two of them.
So, let's get started with these. These are favorites that especially one of them I've been pitching since April and May heavily. And this is the one we're going to start with. This is a stock that I own 4,444 shares of. I just added it up and thought it was kind of hilarious that it is a perfect match.
Kind of makes me not want to buy more, but you'll you'll know my decision at the end of this video in terms of what I'm doing. But anyway, this is a company that I started buying for under $70 per share, and the company has blown up during the pandemic. We are over triple. We are almost at a three-banger already for this company, and it is Etsy, currently trading for around $190 per share.
So, it's been a great and very profitable holding thus far. And it makes sense. I mean, the company went from 818 million in revenue to double that by the end of this year, about 1.6 billion. See, the year's not over yet. And so, now the question obviously becomes, all right, like I mean, if it's already gone up two to three X, does it have anything else left in it?
Well, that's where things get fun. Average consensus estimates for 2024 from Wall Street. And we'll adjust those Wall Street estimates in a minute. But average estimates are that this company's revenues will double again by the end of 2024. But not only will its revenues double, its expense margins should shrink.
And I'll explain why and I'll show you the details in just a moment. But when you think about investing in Etsy, you really have to remember that this is a consumer discretionary company. This is not like an Amazon or a Target where you go to stock up on your essentials. Those are known as consumer staples.
A play on Etsy is really a bet on people who want to support local businesses, potentially sustainable businesses, and people who want customizable products. People who want something unique that they can't really get in a department store or Amazon. You know, ordinarily things that we would go to the downtown of a certain city around the world for.
That's what we can use Etsy for. And since Etsy is just the platform, Etsy doesn't actually manufacture carry these products, Etsy doesn't have to deal with product sourcing or shipping or distribution. Individual Etsy sellers have to deal with that. Now, sure Etsy deals with disputes and customer service, but Etsy's dispute rate is 0.3% which for retail is really low.
Now, that's different from obviously the return rate, but their dispute rate is only 0.3%. And this means that you are investing into this company with a $24 billion market cap that kind of fits nicely in the online re-commerce world or e-commerce world that has not too very much competition. It's kind of difficult to think about, okay, where else am I going to go other than Etsy that's going to get me those customized home goods, apparel, jewelry, uh designs, or or even 3D print designs, or mugs, or whatever.
Etsy's got a ton of this sort of stuff. And it's a great place for gift shopping. Sure, there's eBay and there are custom websites on Shopify, but those aren't as clearly defined as Etsy's one-stop shop, so to speak. Now, something that I also found particularly interesting about Etsy was actually in this chart right here on the iPad.
Take a look at this on screen now. So, this is a share of the total items listed at Etsy uh in terms of you know, what kind of products we see on Etsy. And this is items listed, not particularly items sold, but hey, if you build it, they will come. So, you can kind of see the priority here is around jewelry and accessories, home and living, and then we get into arts and collectibles, wedding, party, toys and entertainment, kind of go down the list here.
Now, what I think is interesting here is I put a little plus on things that have actually lost retail revenue during the pandemic. And those are jewelry and accessories and clothing and shoes. So, in the pandemic, Etsy has doubled its revenues, but jewelry and accessories and clothing and shoes have actually gone down, and I imagine wedding and party as well.
And and we can see this by retail data. I'll go ahead and pull that up here really quickly. Because, I mean, think about it. If you're not going out as much, why do you need jewelry? You know, why do you need clothing? Why do you need this stuff? Let's go ahead and pull up a MasterCard's spending sheet here.
So, here we go. Here's MasterCard's spending sheet. And to me, this becomes really important. Watch this. If we go jump on over here to apparel, we'll see that apparel's retail sales have declined 19.1%. E-commerce, we had about 15.7% growth, which is cool. But over here in jewelry, the entire market really shrunk 4.3%.
Now, e-commerce up as well, but the entire market overall in jewelry and and luxury non-jewelry related items have have have really fallen substantially. Now, to me, what I like about that is it's almost like if we're going to get into a a world that's reopening again, where you have people going out again, people need clothing again, people want that custom jewelry again, what happens?
Well, you actually benefit from one of the larger categories, jewelry and accessories, and another large category at Etsy, apparel. Potentially, you get those segments start blowing up again, almost like Etsy is a recovery play. You know, I I know there are a lot of folks that are like, "Oh, but Etsy got popular because of masks." Sure.
Etsy sold lots of masks, and I bought a few of them, and a lot of the custom-made masks weren't that great. You know, I'd rather put on an N95 and call it a day. Although, I have put Etsy masks over my N95. Kind of cool to kind of customize the finish. Yeah, mask sales are going to go away, but what's fascinating is to think that Etsy could potentially be a beneficiary of a reopening play, and given that now people during the pandemic have potentially been trained to use Etsy or consider Etsy as a source.
And boom, time to hit the ground running for apparel and jewelry purchases. Maybe Etsy becomes a stomping ground. And this is where Etsy yet again shines. See, Etsy's products are so unique, you can't really price shop them. You're not squeezing Target because you're going to go buy something on Amazon.
You know, you're not standing in the store price matching it. In fact, Etsy, which is also kind of cool, just for growth purposes, Etsy's only got a 5% slice of the specialty goods market, which means their ability to grow is insane. You can't price match them. You can't find these unique things elsewhere.
They've got a small slice. They're growing like crazy already, and they've got endless potential to expand into. To me, rather than just two x'ing their revenue over the next four years, which is what the Wall Street consensus estimates are, it's entirely possible this company could three or four x their revenues over the next four years.
And keep in mind, when we hear Wall Street consensus estimate, that's like taking an average of what everybody on Wall Street thinks. So, people on Wall Street, some think more, some think less. I'm going to lean more towards the higher end of the average, and we'll play those numbers in just a moment.
But, even when you consider websites like Pinterest, you know, blowing up in usage, right? When you consider these websites, go click around on Pinterest and see how many Pinterest listings actually just link directly to Etsy. It's incredible. Which brings up something else that Etsy is doing that, well, could end up being a massive, massive profit opportunity for them.
They're starting to advertise etsy.com through Google Ads, automatically showing some of their sellers' products. And ordinarily, you might be thinking, like, seriously, Kevin, that's going to be massive profit opportunity? Hold your horses. Get this, okay? And we're not even onto the second company yet.
Well, this is going to be fun. But anyway, if somebody ends up on etsy.com because, let's say, Etsy placed an ad for this 99 Slayer Runescape mug, okay? Etsy places an ad for this on Google. You click on it. You go to etsy.com and you buy the mug. Obviously, that's good for Etsy, right? But what's even better for Etsy is, yeah, they got you to get onto Etsy and maybe now you'll be tempted to look for coffee mugs on etsy.com instead of google.com, which is good.
You're kind of robbing people away from Google by sort of integrating them into your your company, your network effect. But what you're also doing, and this is the brilliant part, or what Etsy is now doing, Etsy is now saying, "Hey, you know, we were advertising etsy.com using your product. Uh and since we kind of just got you a sale, we're going to charge you, as the seller, a fee for the advertisement we placed to advertise etsy.com." The seller agrees to this because the seller is like, "Sure.
I mean, that's a reasonable fee. You sold some more of my product for me, and I didn't have to do anything." And Etsy is like, "Sweet. We just got some of our marketing expense covered, so it's a win-win." So, in other words, etsy.com gets more users, which is potentially more loyal users who come back over and over again, which means less advertising required because more people are coming back over and over again.
But then, also Etsy is offsetting some of their advertising costs by pushing those costs onto the sellers by partnering with them. It's absolutely ridiculously brilliant. Because one of the big things when you have a platform like this is trying to get your your advertising costs down. We're about to see that in the second company, okay?
We got some problems to speak of, but we'll get out there. Uh but anyway, something like this minor thing here could, in my opinion, destroy Wall Street's projections here. They could just get wrecked. So, uh you know, this to me is on top of the fact that 85% of Etsy's traffic comes from organic traffic.
AKA, they're growing massively without even having to advertise heavily for that growth. Let's go ahead and pull up Wall Street estimates here. What we're going to see at the Wall Street estimates are are really going to kind of help us understand, okay, where where do we want to go forward? You know, how how do we crunch the numbers here at Etsy?
So, uh this is a little boring, so we're just going to get to the bottom line of this really quick. Let's just go ahead and look at what the earnings per share consensus is for 2024 over here. So, we can see it grows. We can see that Etsy is profitable for 2020. We're expecting earnings per share of about $2.46.
Uh and this is expected to actually have a slight decline in 2021. You can see 2021 here. This is going to be interesting, and this is actually a danger here. Now, and you're going to see this at this next company as well, but anytime you get this kind of decline in EPS, expect the stock market to go, "Whoa, whoa, whoa, I forgot that we were expecting this last year.
Sell." Part of this is because Etsy's growth is probably going to slow down a little bit in 2021 as they catch up because they had so much demand pull forward to 2020. And and they had so much growth in 2020, it's going to be really difficult to hit those crazy growth rates they had been hitting. Uh now, the company had been growing like crazy.
I mean, their revenue, uh like I mentioned, it it was uh $818 million here in 2019. Uh it'll end the year pretty much double that, which is insane insane growth, really really good. But, for 2021, Wall Street's expecting a potential slight decline. Uh now, Etsy does have a history of beating earnings seven out of uh eight times at least.
But, uh then we'll start seeing that that solid growth again at earnings per share based on Wall Street's opinions. And we'll end in 2024 with about $5.40 in 2024 earnings per share. That's the current trajectory that Wall Street thinks. So, let's think about this a little bit. If uh Amazon today sells for somewhere around 90 to 100 times earnings, let's say that for Etsy, which I expect it's still going to be growing with this insane growth in the e-commerce space, let's say that Etsy sells for 70 times earnings in 2024.
And let's just for giggles take exactly what Wall Street estimates. Well, if we take their estimate of $5.4 in earnings per share times 70, Etsy would be selling for about $378, which is roughly double today's price in 4 years. That means the stock would return 18.7% per year, which is kind of cool.
No guarantees, obviously, but that's what Wall Street thinks. And of course, the price-to-earnings ratio could be totally whack. We'll see. Depends on how much growth is left going forward beyond 2024. Now, I personally think that uh overall, Etsy is probably I think they've got a good chance of beating the Wall Street expectations, and that's because of this advertising move, as a business owner, I personally think is a brilliant way to increase and fatten their margin.
Plus, I think e-commerce is going to grow a lot faster than the world thinks. I wouldn't be surprised if Etsy, rather than having that slight decline in EPS next year, will actually end up growing that. And if it does, then I wouldn't be surprised if Wall Street is off on their earnings estimate by about 20%.
In other words, I think that they'll have about 20% more earnings per share in 2024. And if that's true, times 70 times earnings, this stock could easily sell for $450. That means if I want to double my money in 4 years, I could keep buying Etsy up to about $225 a share. But folks, here's the danger.
Earnings growth at Etsy is expected to have that setback in 2021, at least the growth rate. They're still going to make more money. That growth rate could spook Wall Street. So, it's entirely possible that Etsy in kind of that next, you know, 12-month period could easily revisit previous support levels of around $130 per share.
To me, that's actually a beautiful buying opportunity. See, while I'm willing to add Etsy under 225, you know, after that, it's like, okay, I got to go find something else. You know, because I really want that 2x return in the next 4 to 5 years. That's really what I'm looking for in my stocks. I want to regularly double them within 2 to 4 years.
And sometimes I mean, obviously, 2020 has been an anomaly. You can't expect to double and triple your your picks. You know, I mean, Redfin's up like 5x for me, which is nuts, and that's a huge holding in my portfolio. Apple didn't quite double, but Apple's done really dang well. And obviously, Etsy, Tesla, and these other companies are just killing it.
But, 4 years for a double, hey, that is that is freaking amazing. If you can keep nailing those, you're doing really good. So, to me, look, if this goes down under 150, I'm shopping more big time. Under 225, I'm good continuously buying Etsy because I see that growth in this company, and I love it. But for right now, let's talk about Wayfair a bit.
So, Wayfair is different. It sells a ton of household furnishings. Wayfair is currently expected to grow its revenues by 18% easily over the next 3 years, every single year. And Wall Street thinks that their revenue in total is going to explode to over $25 billion in revenue. That's insane. It's a crazy big number.
Now, they're at 14 billion for 2020, so it's not quite doubling, but it's still huge. I mean, this is a lot of revenue coming in. Now, Wayfair though, it's pretty different from Etsy. See, Wayfair takes responsibility for warehousing and shipping items, plus dealing with returns. So, big difference in the model, right?
Even though to us as a consumer, they're like you buy stuff on them. Yes, this is true, but entirely different models. Now, Wayfair, they have like 74% private label penetration on their website, which means they actually work with companies to manufacture a good chunk of the stuff that they sell. So, even though they're sourcing third-party goods, they label a lot of the product on their website as some of their own brand lines.
And by doing that, they can actually increase the profit margin. Anytime you private label something, you usually get to take some more profit. Now, while this is great from the point of view of somewhat vertically integrating, you're not fully vertically integrating when you're private labeling, but but somewhat more vertically integrating.
You know, this strategy here is more expensive. And Wayfair's overall strategy is pretty simple. See, like Wayfair's in my opinion, Wayfair's strategy here is, "Look, unlike clothing, brand names don't matter when it comes to furniture or home furnishings. What matters is looks. So, rather than trying to get like, you know, these big brand names into wayfair.com, let's just make our own product lines, and we'll just private label stuff other people are manufacturing, and we'll sell stuff that looks good." That does make sense.
I mean, honestly, that's a good premise for real estate, something we talk about in the stock course and the real estate investing courses. Folks, bang for your buck based on looks. It really, really matters, especially when it comes to real estate. Now, it doesn't mean you want a cheap one, right? But anyway, that's a topic for a different video.
Now, the point is when it comes to household furnishings and uh you know, household goods, very few people care about the brand. This is at least I should clarify here. Look, if you're talking about doing kitchens like a Poggenpohl kitchen or a Bulthaup kitchen, you're going to spend 300 grand on a kitchen, yeah, you're going to care about the brand.
But for wayfair.com, the purpose is what the heck is going to look good at a reasonable price and something that's going to get you a fast and hopefully with free shipping. And unfortunately, Wayfair's got this pretty down. And even with that private label penetration, which which helps their profitability, they've got repeat customers reaching 67.4% in 2019.
And once the new numbers come out, I expect it's going to be even much better here in 2020, which is exciting. The problem with Wayfair though is they're spending an insane amount of money on their advertising to acquire customers. Let me pull up a chart here, okay? I want you to take a look and compare Williams-Sonoma to Wayfair.
And honestly, part of it is a little like, uh okay, like could be a little bit of a problem. Now, I'll show you what's good, but I want to show you what's good as well or bad as well, okay? So, here's the thing. This is Wayfair compared to Williams-Sonoma. So, Williams-Sonoma, uh you can see their margin right here.
So, their their profit margin, right? Williams-Sonoma blows Wayfair out of the water. 90% of the stuff at Williams-Sonoma is private labeled. Remember over here, we're just uh we're right around 74-ish percent, something like this, private labeled. And they're trying to get this up because that helps them grow margin.
But still, they are a world apart on actual profitability here compared to Williams-Sonoma. However, and this is why people like Wayfair, look at those e-commerce sales. Both of them in 2015 were pretty much par for the course here. But look at this, Wayfair now has triple the Williams-Sonoma sales.
So, really what you're doing with Wayfair is you're saying, "Hey, I don't mind that your margin sucks and I don't mind that y'all spending money like all right, Craig. I want to be part of that growth and in the future they'll figure out the margin and that's okay. But, if you're going to be that sort of in or have that sort of investor mindset, you have to keep an eye on their expenses.
And this is a big piece. I'm going to show you another chart here because this is exactly what you could pay attention to if you're sort of keeping an eye on Wayfair in the future because you want to be an investor in Wayfair and you're like, "Okay, Kevin, give me the good, give me the bad, what do I got to pay attention to?" So, here's another chart.
This is the breakdown of revenue of for every sort of order, an average order at Wayfair. So, the average order at Wayfair is about $242. The cost of goods sold COGS are about $185. So, this leaves them with a profit of around $57. But, this is where the fun kind of stops pretty fast. So, over here with $57 of profit, these folks are spending $9.50 on customer service.
Like, what? How are you spending nearly 20% of oh my gosh, your your gross profit on customer service? That's way high. Way high. They got lots of staff, okay? Lots of staff. Man, they need to get on to like Zendesk and Twilio here and figure out how to how to cut some customer service costs out cuz that's extreme.
They almost spend as much on customer service as they do advertising. That's a problem in my opinion, okay? Why you got that much money going to customer service? It's a big problem. But, it's not just the customer service and the advertising that's a problem. Look at this. They're spending 43 bucks on administration, selling, and general expenses.
That's insane. The amount of expenses this company is dishing out for the amount of profit they have is problematic. Now, some argue, and I'm inclined to believe this, that this company basically just built a big old building, and they're like, "Yeah, we're just operating over here right now." It's like, maybe one day they'll grow into the big building, and then all of these expenses will be, you know, a much smaller sort of sliver of the company.
Maybe. But, if you're an investor in Wayfair, you got to pay attention not just to their advertising, but to their employee costs, because employees are very expensive. This is something that Etsy has down pat. I mean, these guys, Etsy, they know how to milk money out of their employees. Their Their employees are efficient.
They make a lot of money off their employees. Uh that This is something where you got to watch management really carefully at a company like Wayfair, because if they can't get their employees to be efficient, you got big problems. Uh so so keep that in mind. And the company's also borrowing relatively more heavily compared to Etsy.
So, it's another risk factor, right? You got a couple issues here. Red flag on Is the management able to control their employee costs, or are they just setting up for the future? Like, what's going on here? Okay? Things to keep an eye on. Now, Wayfair's consensus estimate is that in 2024, they will have $10.27 of earnings per share at the end of 2024.
And now, if they're selling for 70 times earnings at the end of 2024, they still have good growth ahead of them, then this company would go from $253 per share to $718 per share. That's 3x. That's 3x, which, compared to Etsy, remember Etsy was like 2x when we did 70 times the consensus estimate, right?
Wayfair will be 3x. Now, that is a sign that the market is already pricing in more risk at Wayfair. There's a reason Wayfair stock price has literally been horizontal for 6 months. Yeah, look at the stock chart. It's been horizontal for 6 months. It's traded sideways. It's done nothing. Now, you know, that doesn't mean that Wayfair is a bad company.
It just means that we're waiting for some sort of validation that management can get their act together when it comes to advertising expenses and their general and administration expenses. Now, we do have some good news on that so far. Let's go ahead and look at the companies sort of expectations already.
And what we could do is we could do these as a percentage of revenue. So, let's let's look at this here. Let's pull this up on the iPad. So, this is so far. This is looking into the past. See, here's 2013, 14, 15, 16, 17. You get the idea. So, this number right here is the SG&A and then this number here is your marketing, your advertising.
And so, what you can what you really want to see is you want this percentage of revenue to go down over time. So, in 2014, the numbers both went up substantially. But then we had a nice downtrend, little bit of an up, then we got down a lot, down uh up little bit of a up on advertising here in 2019, little bit of up on the SG&A again.
Uh and then over here for 2020 so far, the expectation is we're going down. So, we're kind of doing this like teeter-totter. We're going up, we're going down, we're going up, we're going down. We got to keep an eye on this. Like, realistically, for our next earnings report for Wayfair, we want to see this percentage of of their staff and advertising costs start showing us a consistent downtrend.
To me, that's going to be validation that Wayfair, okay, we can now start buying it a little bit more heavily. That's what I'm looking for over at Wayfair. Now, hopefully, like we drew the picture of, this is just Wayfair, you know, building up the machine, so to speak. But we got to keep an eye on this.
So, here's kind of my thinking. If I drop the Wall Street consensus estimate for Wayfair by 20%. Remember, I did the opposite with Etsy. I thought Etsy could be 20% above. I'm going to go 20% down at Wayfair. Well, Wayfair still doubles as long as you buy it for less than $290 a a share. And obviously no guarantees.
These companies could go bankrupt. I'm a dude on YouTube. Uh but d and your four free stocks you can get via the link down below. But this is going to be my rule going forward. For every $1 I put into Wayfair, I'm going to buy 2 and 1/2 to $3 of Etsy. Potentially closer to $3. Wayfair could surprise well into the upside and I'm I'm optimistic for that.
I love Wayfair's customer service. I buy stuff for my rental properties from them, like vanities and stuff. They're great. Way better customer service than Lowe's. They also spend a whole lot more on customer service. But this is a sign that I do want to own Wayfair. I just want to be careful with the ratio here.
For now, I do want more Etsy. I I you know, I I I really have I have more upside hope for Etsy. Uh I like I'm more optimistic on Etsy than I am on Wayfair based on kind of what what we're seeing on consensus estimates. Uh that's why I've adjusted the numbers the way I have. But then again, you know, if you look at the stock price, the stock market is starting to catch on to the fact that mhm Etsy's pretty juicy and Wayfair, let's wait a little bit.
That's why it's been flat. Fundamental analysis for you. If you want to learn how I do fundamental analysis, I teach that in my stock and psychology group in the link down below. Now, I do want to mention that once Wayfair gets to scale, I mean, think about it. Once they actually have staff that finds products and then they sell, you know, instead of selling a thousand of a certain vanity, they sell 10,000 of a certain vanity, that scale is going to get rewarded handsomely in the future.
But you just don't have as much certainty in that process or that scale coming just yet. I think it will, and that's why I'm investing in Wayfair, but you definitely have a little bit more risk baked into Wayfair, in my opinion, when comparing these two. So, I do want to end off with one final thought.
And this is important. This is going to compare Wets Wetsy Wayfair and Etsy to Shopify and Amazon. And we want to look at their web traffic, because folks, web traffic is dollar signs. That's very important. We got to know, okay, who's actually cranking money out here, or who's going to crank money based on page views.
So, take a look at this, on the iPad now. We've got Shopify, Etsy, and Wayfair. And I I know shopify.com is not exactly the perfect comparison here, but uh we're going to include them anyway. So, with Shopify, you've actually got a decline here, and this is based on the last year. is what we're looking at here.
You've got this decline at the end of the year of Shopify here, you know, good sort of bump here in the middle of the year, but you've got the decline here at the end. Don't love that. Etsy, you got that growth continuing. I do like that. Uh and Wayfair, you actually do have a little bit of a slower kind of flattening here.
Uh Shopify's still got that declining trajectory, where Wayfair's got uh that flattening here towards the end of the year. Something to keep in mind. And it makes sense, you know, I feel like people are going to spend less money on furnishings and furniture during this part of the year. But what I really want to do now is look at this.
Look at the time on website for these different companies. Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, okay? So, that means Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair. Look at the time on website for Etsy. Holy smoke-us. Not only is it up 8% over just the last 3 months. We're now looking at a 3-month chart here, but 12 minutes and 31 seconds.
That's almost twice the amount of time people are spending on Wayfair. This is amazing and people are spending twice as much time on Wayfair as they are shopify.com. And Shopify different. I'm just throwing him in here as a comparison match. Let's also throw in now Amazon. So let's do the same thing with Amazon.
So this is going to give us sort of Amazon's trajectory here. Amazon's kind of difficult to throw into this chart. It's going to be difficult, you know, it's obviously it's just moving up. But just relative to the other ones on the chart we can see Amazon here. They're such a big company though you almost have to plot them on a chart all by themselves for you to actually be able to to see any kind of change here.
Keep in mind Amazon is like an over one and a half trillion dollar market cap company. Etsy and Wayfair you're talking like 22 to 25 billion dollar market cap companies. I mean you're talking teeny weenie little companies. Okay, so we got Etsy, Wayfair, Amazon. Etsy, Wayfair, Amazon. Let's look at the time on website.
Look at this. Etsy, Wayfair, Amazon. Look at that. Etsy is beating Amazon. Yes. Yes. This I like to see. And this is this is the last three month data. So we'll see how this evolves after the holiday season. But folks, this is money. So there you go. If you like my fundamental analysis, make sure to subscribe to the channel.
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