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you've been warning adventures of an epic multi-asset bubble since last summer are you still feeling the same way and are we getting closer to the crash the peak of a bubble is always hard to get right the market doesn't peak when things begin to look bad the market peaks on one of the most optimistic days i think the degree of optimism in some ways measures the most in february march where the real crazy stocks in the us did the best when tesla was hitting 900 where all the spikes were going crazy now they've cooled down considerably where bitcoin was at 60 000.
so i i would say most bubbles start to let out the air starting with the craziest most optimistic stocks there haven't been many great bubbles obviously anywhere they're quite rare but we had one in 1929 we had one in 2000 we kind of had one in 1972 the so-called nifty 50. well all of those were preceded by unusual events and that is that the very riskiest stocks underperformed the great blue chips and in 2000 in the great tmt bubble the crazies peaked in march but the s p had a second high in september and between march and september the crazy tech stocks were down 50 percent and the rest of the market about 70 percent of the market cap was up 16 or 17 to balance the books and and the s p was unchanged but the blue chips were up and that kind of environment where high beta stocks underperform as the market goes up is pretty well unique to late stages of the great bull markets and we are beginning to see that perhaps now it all may change and that we may have another great surge of growth stocks and this phase in 1929 went on for eight months in 1972 went on for almost a year and in 2000 went on for about seven months and now we're about to april may june we're about three months into this period where the highest beta stocks like tesla are not doing as well as the blue chips what could possible integrity correction that the fats tapering the great bubbles often have no trigger nobody knows what triggered 1929 nobody really knows what triggered japan in 89 japan was the biggest equity bubble of a serious market in the history of man there's a level of optimism that just can't be maintained they push the stocks up by increasing leverage margin today in america is back to the high levels of gdp that it was in 2000 and once it's past its peak you can't maintain the pressure however i firmly believe that the fed knows very little about stock market bubbles it hadn't got a clue in 2000 alan greenspan talked about really the permanent internet profit margin staying forever and the market would have very high pes forever and it's had it higher than average but it couldn't maintain them at 35 times earnings from 2000 so despite his enormous support the market cracked the nasdaq came down an astonishing 82 percent the smp came down 50 and then bernanke had enormous confidence in the us housing bubble he said the u.s housing market merely reflected a strong u.s economy he said quote the u.s housing market has never declined and and yet the housing market was a 100-year event on the data how is it that greenspan could miss that bubble how is it bernanke could miss the housing bill they always do they haven't got a clue about investment bubbles they don't take them into account they underestimate the pain of the bubble breaking and here we are for the third time with the same policy and each time they're confident right into the crash and even when the crash starts they tell you how short it's going to be how relatively painless it will be and they are totally wrong and this guy will be totally wrong just like greenspan and bernanke were totally wrong
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