저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 혁명은 초기 단계이며 소프트웨어 급락은 구조적 과매도로 M&A 사이클이 올 것이라 주장. 테슬라-스페이스X 합병 가능성 언급, 알파벳 CapEx는 높은 FCF로 정당화되며 MSFT 하락은 과도하다고 봄. 살세포스·크라우드스트라이크 등 과매도 소프트웨어 매수 추천, 애플은 구글 AI 제휴로 상승 여지 언급.
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I understand, like the nature of like when you expand opportunities outside just traditional analyst, it's something where like, you know, you're breaking new ground, right? But it's something that if I chew gum, Wedbush knows. And the reality is, is that I get the criticism. But look at something like for 25 years being Bush and tack being Bush and I revolution it's led to obviously other opportunities.
But it's something where, you know, it's I get the criticism. I want to go back to first principles here. There was a there's a couple of courses. We took a network effect on Metcalf's law, an Ethernet study here, and the answers devolved into spectacular profits for a very few. Michael Moore was just being iconic on his early work as well.
It's still in play, right? When I look at Google's profit machine, it's about Metcalf's law. They're playing a different rule book and we don't understand. I mean, and that's not to further your point. If you look at the cloud growth, 48%, you look at CapEx now, it's basically, you know, going to be, you know, really almost doubling.
This just shows that these companies, they see the modernization path. It's happening now to investors big. Why would you not slow up? Because they have to accelerate because of the arms race that's playing out. And when you look at earnings season in the last few weeks, it's further validated that this is not a bubble.
This is an AI revolution. Amazon just started. And it's my view to view that software is essentially what I'll call an Armageddon like environment for software. And I think this is going to be viewed as, I think, a time where software names have gotten so oversold, I'd have to go back 25 years, maybe two or three times that I've ever seen a moment like this.
So how do you respond to the concern that some people have that poses a fundamental threat to certain aspects of software, specialized software, application software? Look, I think on the edges down the road, is it a headwind? Yeah. But then on the other hand, like for a Salesforce or ServiceNow for an Adobe for large ones that were that you could argue that a AI is actually a tailwind, but they just haven't seen the modernization yet because it's ultimately the use cases are going to be built by software and Palantir being the first.
When you say snowflake, Mongo or are next in line. And I just think the view that software is done that you're going to have companies that are going to go away from a salesforce for a quarter. An anthropic model is just it it's it's somewhere between ridiculous to fictional or whatever. Are you seeing the major software companies this pick on MSFT, are they having conversations in Redmond to say we're down 26%?
Do we take debt to buy back shares and other creative I mean, are they are they do they want to be opportunistic given this air frenzy? Well, I think this is going to create a massive M&A cycle in software because to Tom's point, if you look at the cash flow both on the on the P side as well as in the strategic and you look now where the where these software companies are, if you think about maintenance error, you basically would have to assume that numbers come down 25% the next three years not to buy that this sector didn't.
Actually, the folks worldwide were thrilled to have a mine. Robert Schiffman with us later, the best in conversation on technology. Okay, you know where I am. And Tesla, you and I sit up in the food court over cheese. I don't I have cheeses. I've said something. And you had a boys scarf you were wearing, too.
Okay, but yeah, but, but the bottom line to knives is they're going to take Tesla taking out two vehicles. Something is going to happen. They're going to run into x eight, whatever the hell that is, and they're going to fund it through StarLink. Are things in space going to make this accounting work towards my view that Tesla and SpaceX X eventually merge?
Okay, so, so this is x an x x air space. Is there going to be a legitimate red herring? Is there going to be a legitimate process or is it just musk blather? No, I think into a Jim. And I think this is all step by step in terms of what's going to happen. I think the realities look like, well, why would must do this?
Because essentially when you will get x I that's so much of the technology now that's within space. Space X basically being the vehicle that obviously get you to space. It's musk view where this he's basically creating his own ecosystem. You talk about circular financing everything else he's internally building this.
What I would argue is probably going to be the biggest ag company in the world. Is it is this whole new thing, this space slash X, I is going to go public this year? Well, yeah. I mean, I think it's one I would make a ton of sense for space X to go. But then you think about Exide being a key component to that.
I think then the other thing for investors is trying to figure out how does this affect Tesla? And when does that cross-pollination start? Okay, Bitcoin is 69,000. We have and broken down below, but everybody's paying attention. 69,500. The fancy people at crypto say where's the underlying? Where's the underlying?
And the combination of SpaceX and Tesla, what's the underlying free cash flow generation? I mean you look it's my view autonomous and robotics alone for Tesla numbers today if you have free cash flow free cash flow will be up 56x the next four or five years just based on that. Then when you actually if you actually combine it all, you're essentially looking at something where they could when you think about the longer term model, they would generate free cash flow potential on par with any of these.
So you're saying I don't. Paul, pose any questions. This is my last one called Alexis. Get out the surveillance cork and put in my mouth when I'm done with this question. You got a red herring out right now. Basically, there's no profit model and it's an innovation of hope five years out is that we have this exchange.
I mean, I would say $1,000,000,000 a month, whatever, that they're burning to you. But my view is like it's no different than the 185 billion that that Googles and is paying CapEx or Microsoft's doing CapEx right now. You are betting on the next two, three, four or five years. Now, does that is your view you have to be a believer and does that impact the near-term in terms of these names?
Of course. But the view from an investor perspective means my view is that we're in the fourth industrial revolution. We're in year three of a ten year buildout. We've had some great reporting from Bloomberg News on Elon Musk and SpaceX six and Excite and this merger here. And I think two themes out there.
The Bulls are saying, hey, you're putting together the great space X with the arguably the leading AI company. Put those two together. What a great story. Others might say, well, it kind of feels like space X is bailing out X or vice versa doing. But we don't know because we don't know any numbers there.
Do we know? We don't. I mean, obviously the burn which which we know is probably, you know, about a billion a month, but for SpaceX X, they're getting the AI technology from X A.I. so that they ultimately need if you think about this being what I'll call an I play, yeah, it was the first step. But they eventually go down the aisle with Tesla.
Okay. Just just published moments ago. We did this in real time. Folks will make it up as we go. Dan ISE. This was led by Robert Shiffman, who will be with us in the next hour, published just moments ago. This is on the credit and the build out of Google and A.I. Alphabet. Now I CapEx poster child, but risk is low.
He looks at 127 billion cash balance. And again, then as I go back to these things are profit machines like do you say the CapEx is almost a rounding error spread out over two, three, five years? For every dollar you're spending in CapEx, you're basically going to generate 40, 50% free cash flow and every dollar that you're investing cap, I mean, if you go through the numbers and that's why it's my view, you're going to continue to put as much into this given the cash flow machine that you've seen Alphabet produce, what I believe Microsoft's going to produce.
And I think so many other tech companies that are going down this path and they have no choice but to go down the path, despite me buying stocks this week or whatever. Over the last paragraph below is Oracle. Do you envision the Ellison's have got to at some point jettison Oracle because they don't have the EBIDTA to fund all those hopes?
I think that's why they did the 45 to 50 billion. They laid it out in terms of the transparency, how they're going to raise the capital. And I just continue to see investors. Okay, let's say Oracle never touched open the 300 billion. They didn't touch any of these deals. Okay. So you're saying would you spend 30 billion, 40 billion in the hopes that you could get five, 600 billion over the next four or five years?
Any company in the world is going to take that now. That's why I like Oracle's stock being so such an overhang on this. The math of it is this is essentially giving them the opportunity to change the trajectory. They're coming become a huge player when it comes to, you know, the 4 to 5 trillion that's going to be spent.
That's why they're doing it. Given some of the sell off here in software stocks. What are your top picks here on the weakness? Look, I think the one that is the most oversold relative to the install base free cash. And where they sit is Salesforce. Okay. Am I saying like, has Bloom come off the Rose and Benioff and Salesforce?
Is this disruptive to the business model? Yes. But to say that the stock right now is basically trading in almost you have to assume that this is a structurally broken company, which is not. Yeah. And then I'd say cybersecurity. Look, you need my CrowdStrike and there in the hyperscale. Well, if you look at it, if you look at the sell off on Microsoft here, I think it's one of the most head scratching sell offs that I've seen in my twenties.
So how do they respond to that? That's what I want to know. And they're going to get their CFO. It's going to be who's their CFO? I don't even know. Are you their CFO? No. Again, it's it's one where. To me, they're going to have to do something significant here to make a statement to the market. About their stock and about their confidence.
And I think look, and I think it's ultimately Amy Hood. What is Amy Hood said and Adele, are you kidding me? But Amy Hood, in my opinion, not just in tech, but across, I think I think just across any major public company is probably top five CFO out there. Yeah. So Amy Hood's not someone that she's going to sit here and watch this and do nothing.
Wait a minute. She went to Duke. It is the exact problems. So what is the conversation you're having with clients? Is it. Is it panic? Is it? I'm selling now and I'll think about it later. It's I mean, I'm hearing from clients I haven't heard from in a decade, seven years, ten years, because mine is like they're that panicked or nervous not to explain some of these sell offs, trying to say this is something that they're missing.
And my whole point is like booking coverage is going back to late nineties, like we've been through times where like where there is bubble burst, you know, financial crises. This is one is a massive it's a structural sell off and software that's unlike anything in terms of its core structure that I've ever seen like okay in 90 days when Microsoft is Q2.
So like, you know, ending March 30 and you wait 30 days or 40 days, they're going to come out with a report. It's the same old, same old cash generation, same and I'd say accelerated relative to what they got. I think the only reason the stock sold off so dramatically, it's because not all the CapEx is being out allocated to Azure, which that's what investors want to see.
And then it was kind of splitting hairs as you're not having a foreign firm. But from a growth perspective, is that 38, 39%. But I think that is a missing the overall point. The Enterprise I revolution goes through Redmond that's in their core backyard. So what's the what's the message you have today, which is, hey, ride this out or or try to pick winners and losers?
What's the message? The message is the winners. You buy them table LB their levels because it's my view, just like last year we had deep sleep and Liberation Day and maybe some other sort of, you know, geopolitical. You'll have these moments four or five times in a year. This is not the end of the air trade, right?
This is not a bubble that's bursting. You remember the bears will come out and usual. To me, it's like, look at earnings season. We'll get structural look in modernization and look. And that's that's the reality. But look like we're not going to restaurant last night and the chef comes out ask about if he should be back intact.
It's which actually happen it's definitely happened to Chipotle. They know it happened. It happened at an awesome Italian restaurant. They're actually very keen style McSweeney style. Yes. But look, when that happens, it shows. I got 57 seconds because Michael Barr needs is time is going to a tantrum.
I'm looking at Apple just for you. I did a long chart Apple Computer and the bottom line folks, is in April of this year, the world said, shut up, it's going to die. It's going to be terrible. And then I said, you know, 180 up to 280 as well. On a long term trend, it's trading just below trend line.
I mean, there's room to move to the upside. What will be that catalyst? Look at the stock movement the last two or three weeks, right. Against the broader, you know, techs. Off to me it's just look what Google said yesterday and is now coming to Cupertino. That's going to be huge. I think investors are underestimating what that is going to mean about monetization for Apple.
And I think that is ultimately what it comes down to. You are not factoring in any premium to air that goes through Cupertino and what all me is a 2.5 billion iOS device like clockwork Saturday, you have to go to the Apple store because one of the cherubs OMG my phone is dead.
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