저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준이 임시공개시장운영(Tommo)으로 단기 유동성을 공급할 가능성이 크며, 이는 강세 요인이라고 주장. 노동시장은 주간 ADP·JOLTS 지표상 고용 손익분기 수준으로 안정적이며 소프트랜딩 기대. 연준 SEP에서 GDP 전망 상향, 인플레 소폭 상향, 2025년 인하 2회(10월·12월) 예상. AI 로봇 산업은 장기 강세로 제시하며, 엔비디아는 저평가로 보고 AI 소프트웨어 쪽 선호를 언급. 'Meet Kevin' 유료 멤버십 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Well, it looks like the Federal Reserve is about to start printing money because institutions are now talking about not FOMO, not SOMO, but rather to. Yes, markets are now talking about temporary open market operations coming and that a tommo like facility to support money markets and reserves is coming to make sure we don't have a liquidity crisis in markets.
Now, not only do we need to talk about why that's bullish, but we got to talk about expectations for the rate cut tomorrow and what JPL might say, as well as look at the summary of economic projections. Because the last time we looked at the summary of economic projections, I said it was bullish that we would break through 600 on the cues.
And you can actually look back at my sheet in green is what we wrote down last time. Last time we looked at this, we said this is dovish. It is bullish rates down. It's bullish cues going through 600. And folks, that's exactly what happened. Now, we're going to talk about what we expect to happen tomorrow.
But let's first get started with why did this skyrocket? Why all of a sudden did we see Bitcoin skyrocket right at 7 a.m.? Why did we see Circle go full circle and start rebounding off the floor? Why are we seeing SIM come back to 64? Why are we seeing Tesla rocket off$433.99? Why are you seeing coreweave reject but actually get to and then reject within three cents of my line?
Mind you, all of these all of these right here were those well with the exception of Bitcoin. We just watched this one. But all of these that I just mentioned, Circle, SAM, Tesla, Cororewave, all mentioned in our alpha report this morning. You can use coupon code Santa reinvest at meet.com if you want.
But we got to answer why. So why did this happen? This bounced right at 7 a.m. We covered it in our cours uh was because of Jolt's data actually really impressing. Usually this Jolts data comes in pretty damn close to expectations. Not only did today's numbers not come in close to expectations, but they smashed.
They absolutely smashed. Uh it was really good. The the numbers were so bullish that not only did we compare them to the ADP numbers, but we updated the bare bull scale to a 56. The numbers are bullish. Uh we updated the bear bull scale because of jolts and the weekly ADP data which really didn't get a lot of news.
JP Morgan says consumer is still healthy. We'll see. Well, hopefully the consumer can step up and we can start getting job growth again like what we saw in Canada. Hopefully that's not all part-time. But you got to think about this with the ADP report. What did we get with ADP? Weekly ADP which got like no attention this morning suggested that we are growing at 4750 jobs per week.
Now, that initially, you might be like, Kevin, that's poultry. That's terrible. That sounds like nothing. But it works out to about 19,000 per month. A little bit more because week versus month, a little bit more than that. So, I'll call it about 20,000 per month. And as long as we're positive over zero, I think we're above the break even rate of employment.
Now, I'm not saying there aren't problems in the labor market. They're definitely we got to pay attention to these. That's why we're we're just slightly above mid-range. Well, let's put it this way. I'm adding stocks to my top 10 list of stocks to buy. We got a full list of top 10 socks out. Uh we just added number 10 this morning.
Uh that's doing well and so is uh our number nine from last week. These are great. Uh but you can see those all at me.com in the alpha report. But anyway, this 20,000 jobs roughly on a monthly. If break evens around 0 to 20k, we're basically at break even, which means the unemployment rate should stay stable as long as the participation rate doesn't skyrocket.
Now, if a lot of people go back to work, the participation rate could skyrocket or we get more layoffs. Of course, then we're going to have problems and we're going to have poopy dupies. That's why you want to be cautious. And it's exactly why I think we're now not just talking FOMO, fear of missing out, or somo, sadness of missing out, but that the Fed is going to turn on the tomo money printer.
Yeah, we'll talk about that. Now, why would the Fed turn on the money printer for tomo? And how does that work? Well, in part, I believe it's because I think when we get the summary of economic projections tomorrow, I think we're going to see a bump in the real GDP projections for 2026. I think they'll bump that up.
And so, I'll go ahead and make my prediction right here. So, my prediction, and I'll make a note that uh green was September, red is 129. Okay. So, what do we have here? 129. There we go. Okay. So, my prediction is that they'll actually write this up to 20 tomorrow. So, I think this is going to go to two.
I think this will actually go to 46 for the end of next year. And that's going to be in anticipation of the labor force participation rate going up due to participation rising. Uh, and then I also think we'll have a bump on inflation and I think that they're going to take this PCE level. Maybe not this number.
This might go like 27, but I actually think core has the potential of indicating I I'll go 27 as well. I think a little bump on both of these. I core might go 28, but I'll go 27 here. Uh, we also, you know, previously we anticipated five cuts by the end of 2027. If you included September, that would be accurate.
But I actually think that's been revised more to about four cuts. That would be October, December, and two in 2025. That's sort of the soft landing expectation right now for the summary of economic projections. Uh this would be the um you know, four rate cuts uh of uh a de two in 2025 equals mostly a soft landing play.
The issues would be twofold. uh labor force participation rising or layoffs rising. Uh not seeing that right now. Uh which is good. Again, the ADP numbers this morning were great and the Jules numbers, the fact that we saw job openings up, great. Now, job quits were down. So, people are nervous about the job market, but layoffs not enough to really cause a big shakeup yet.
Hopefully, our comboy stays that way. and job openings rising was a really bullish surprise. And so it's holding that 10-year yield a little bit elevated, which is contributing a little bit to funding stress. Now remember, the Federal Reserve stopped QT. QT is over, right? QT ended on December 1st. It's been about 9 days.
So, not only did quantity tightening end, and we see this repo stress hasn't shown up since December 2nd, which could just be residual overnight from December 1st, but we have not seen a single bar chart here show up on the repo facility, suggesting maybe ending quantitative tightening was a good thing.
But now we're talking to Tommo. So, what the hell is too? FOMO. SOMO. No. Sounds like that comedian, you know, who's like, "So, if C O M B is comb, what's B O M B? Boom. No, bomb." I I love those grammar things. I think they're hilarious. No. But anyway, uh if you go to this tommo, uh in honor of him, who's now dead, the guy, the comedian.
But anyway, uh not FOMO, not SOMO, but Tommo. These are temporary open market operations. Now, this is not technically quantitative easy, okay? It's technically QE light or or QE. QE temporary, right? It's sort of like overnight QE is the way to think about it. Basically, the Fed says, "Yo, we're going to print money to support overnight borrowing, but we're going to pay off that borrowing right away." And and you know, the printing, we're going to remove the printing right away.
So, we're gonna It's kind of like, all right, basic human analogy. We ran the vacuum cleaner like Luigi from Luigi's Mansion, sucked up as much money as we could, okay? Turned off the vacuum cleaner. All right. And now we're like, "All right, boys. We're putting the vacuum away." And then there's a little bit of private credit stress.
And so, what are they doing? They're just sort of like like they're revving the vacuum on and off like really quickly like uh that's kind of QE light. So it's like but you also have the blower setting so it flips between vacuum and blower. So it's LIKE BLOW VACUUM BLOW VACUUM. It's weird. I don't know if the analogy is any good, but the bottom line of it is it's designed to support the liquidity challenges that you're seeing at banks, aka private credit, because we know private credit is basically sucking on the titty of the banks.
And if private credit is sucking on the banks, and the banks need liquidity. When the banks run out of liquidity, private credit runs out of liquidity. That's not good. But if the banks get overnight liquidity, private credit holds up and everything's Gucci, so you can actually grow GDP. That's the goal.
Now, Morgan Stanley is really bullish on robots. Okay, I'm just going to throw this call in here. Okay, look at this. Look at this. You ready for this? China humanoid robotic survey. We believe AI enabled robotics will help usher in a third industrial revolution. Well, like imagine now to plus robotic revolution.
And if you get the soft landing, uh bullish catalyst, anyone? Bullish catalyst. Uh yeah. Uh, how about Santa rally or coupon code Santa reinvest lifetime access to membership. No, really, it's actually incredible as long as you know we don't fall off a cliff with the labor market. But look at this. Uh, our GDP is probably about $25 trillion.
And they're saying that AI enabled robots alone could generate $25 trillion of GDP uh alone uh from robots. So, it's basically like creating another America. It It's literally like doubling today's America. It's like doubling America 2025. And think about how big of the American economy, how big the American economy is.
You're doubling them. Like my venture capital company, we invested in uh Appronic, the humanoid robotics play. Uh I personally invested in them when they were like really risky and about to go bankrupt and almost out of money at like a $400 million valuation. Uh then when they stabilized we invested them at like a 17 valuation.
At that point we had our VC we invested in them there and now the information is reporting that they're worth somewhere around 5 billion and I wouldn't be surprised if they keep going because it's sort of like a discount Tesla and given Tesla's valuation a very discount Tesla. Uh, and you know, there's talk that that Appronic actually helped set up Tesla's robotics, but you know, who knows?
That could be just a rumor mill. Uh, so anyway, it is really interesting this robotics play. And so this broadly is long-term bullish, but the problem is I do agree. I think China is going to eat our lunch on the manufacturing. But that's okay because even if China eats our lunch on manufacturing, who's going to buy the robots, right?
China might eat our lunch making the robots, but who will buy the robots? Americans. Americans will buy the robots. It'll make us more productive. Makes Americans more productive, right? So, so we benefit from the productivity benefits of the robots. Uh, so I'm I'm very excited about that and obviously so is Morgan sailing.
But anyway, I mean going back to Tommo over here, uh the Federal Reserve tomorrow, we broadly expect them to cut. Uh this data this morning could be enough to keep Powell a little bit hawkish. So, you know, expect a little bit of volatility, but uh but really, I mean, if they announced any kind of Tommo facility is just pure bullish.
And so I think this talk about Tommo along with like soft landing style data is what really led to this rocket ship in uh in in like Bitcoin and and asset prices, you know, even Tesla. I mean, I think the Morgan Stanley piece by uh uh on robotics was was huge uh for this. So it's absolutely phenomenal.
Uh and uh and and and Coreweave, you know, coming back to its 90 line is is huge. Although the one thing that's weird today is that Nvidia, you know, while it gained yesterday on news about selling to China, if you look, you're within about a buck 50 of where you were before the China news, which kind of suggests that there's, and I shouldn't say this, but I'm going to say it.
We believe in you made it to the end of this segment so I'll I'll reveal it but we believe that the big PP place big PP right now this is my sort of protake if you will no guarantees but I think you know the noobs right now are saying hey Kevin like it's you know we still got to be in all the chips got to be on all chips that may be true like Nvidia's valuation is cheap okay they they're like a 1.6 six peg.
But I think the pro is saying where's the money being made from AI and it's in part Google, it's in part AI software companies, but you have to pick the good ones. And so I think we're transitioning from from chips to the AI software. And I think that's one of the reasons Apple is booming so much, which is ironic because while Apple's got the software mode, they have basically no AI.
Now to some extent, they're a little bit insulated from the AI spend. And people believe this is this is really a chart of the hope that Apple will finally adopt good AI, right? But I think that's the next phase of um of where we sit now. I obviously also feel so optimistic about uh about this. I don't want a recession because I honestly think as long as we don't have a recession, we can hopefully knock on wood IPO our product faster, right?
We got our, you know, invested house act. Little disclaimer there. There's risk with every investment, but but I'm of the impression we we look at our app and our software team and we're like, dude, the things that we can do, not only once we get our reinvest AI app out this month, uh, and y'all start using it and we add more features, but beyond that, we move from into new real estate AI verticals.
Uh, just our road map is crazy in terms of some of the uh, the plans that we have. So, we're really really excited and uh and so on in a biased manner, I don't want a recession. Uh however, I'm aware of the risks and being conservative uh because I also uh I you know, you should always be looking at investing as a long-term outlook, right?
Look at it as, hey, how can I invest for the next 10 to 50 years for how fact? Those are my 50-year plays. My top 10 stocks to buy list, those are my 10-year plays. Those are stocks I'm looking at going like, I want to I want to hold these for the next 10 years. and how can I get more exposure to them?
So, pretty excited. But this is good number. These are good numbers. We'll talk Fed tomorrow. Uh we'll be covering it live. And uh overall, I got to say bullish catalyst. Yeah. So, there you have it. Kevin's somebody we ' we'd .
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