저자: Dividendology채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏의 배당투자 복리 효과를 강조하며 S&P500 장기 적립 투자를 권장. 1942년 114.75달러 투자가 현재 약 40만 달러가 됐다는 사례 제시. 버핏 포트폴리오 상위 3개 종목(애플·뱅크오브아메리카·코카콜라)을 그레이엄·DCF·멀티플·배당할인모형으로 밸류에이션하고 적정가를 계산. 애플: 적정가 약 144달러 평균 vs 현재가 약 139달러, 10% 안전마진 적용 시 매수가 약 130달러 수준. 배당수익률 0.66%로 낮지만 배당 성장과 현금흐름 성장 기대. 뱅크오브아메리카: 현재가 약 37.11달러, 평균 적정가 약 58.63달러, 20% 안전마진 적용 시 매수가 약 46.90달러로 매수 신호로 제시. 코카콜라: 현재가 59.60달러, 평균 적정가 60.26달러로 거의 적정, 10% 안전마진 적용 시 매수가 약 54.23달러. 방어주 프리미엄 감안 필요 언급. 금리 관련: 현재 AAA 회사채 금리 5.2%로 그레이엄 공식상 밸류에이션을 낮추는 요인이라고 설명.
다듬은 글
there is no doubt about who the king of dividend investing is in 2021 Warren Buffett collected close to four billion dollars in dividend income and over the next 12 months Buffett's Holdings are expected to generate over 6 billion dollars in dividend income Warren Buffett's entire life is a clear example of how the power of long-term dividend investing creates a compounding effect that makes it ridiculously easy to generate wealth he gives a great demonstration of the compounding effect in this interview let me give you a figure that'll blow your mind I think I bought my first stock when I was 11 years old it was the first quarter of 1942.
shortly after Pearl Harbor I spent 114.75 create three shares 114.75 if I put that 114 into the S P 500 at that time and reinvested the dividends think of it figures to what it might be would be worth today oh man well it's okay I just want your audience to think for a second okay the answer the answer is about four hundred thousand dollars so if I as a little kid would tell you that 114 bucks I'd say the shuffling snow or whatever it does four hundred thousand dollars today one person's lifetime that's America that isn't me you know it's it is the huge Tailwind the American economy gives to any Equity investor now the Market's going down many times during that time people have Panic during that time headlines have been terrible you know it looked like we were losing the war one first one but America is a powerful economic machine that since 1776 has worked but it's going to keep working out you don't want to buy the hold for a year you don't want to buy with the idea that you can sell it in two years or three years necessarily make money you may you could lose money that way but if you buy it for 10 20 just keep buying the S P 500 Index and forget about all the other nonsenses being sold legal because I'll guarantee you one thing about to stop being sold to you it will carry bigger fees and what I'm talking about yeah so what investments did Warren Buffett make to create this compounding effect in this video we're going to be analyzing the top three largest Holdings in Warren Buffett's portfolio if you'd like to download the spreadsheet used to analyze these stocks then you can head over to my patreon page at the link in the description the first and largest holding in Warren Buffett's portfolio is Apple stock ticker AAPL this is a company that takes up over 40 percent of his entire portfolio we can see they're currently trading at a price of 139 and 50 cents per share and like we mentioned earlier he obviously loves to focus on dividend growth and apple just started paying a dividend around 10 years ago and if we scroll down we can see since then they have over doubled the amount they pay out in dividends let's go ahead and jump into our stock valuation spreadsheet to see if we can calculate its intrinsic value so we'll come up here and plug in the stock ticker and hit enter and you can see all this data will automatically load in the current dividend yield for this company is sitting at 0.66 percent and they're paying out 92 cents per share in dividends with a payout ratio of just 14.6 percent meaning they have plenty of room to continue to grow their dividend payments over time now analysts currently have a Target price of 179 dollars per share and the beta for this company is sitting at 1.24 so you will see a little bit more volatility than normal let's go ahead and jump into our first valuation which is going to be grams valuation and this is actually a valuation model invented by Benjamin Graham who is one of Warren Buffett's mentors and here's the formula he lays out for us to calculate intrinsic value so the first thing we need is our earnings per share which we have automatically pulled right here we then apply our growth rate projection and analysts still have pretty positive views for Apple when it comes to the growth rate projection we're projecting your growth rate of 13 and then we want to apply the current yield of AAA corporate bonds for y right here and at the time of this video it's sitting at 5.2 which is quite a bit higher than it has been over the past year but when we plug all these and you can see we come to an intrinsic value of 103 dollars per share quite a bit below that current trading price now keep in mind earlier this year the current yield on Triple A corporate bonds was as low as 2.8 so if it were to go back where to go back to that number we come to an intrinsic value much higher than that so keep in mind the current market conditions are really driving this valuation method down now the next evaluation method we'll look at is the discounted cash flow model and in order to perform a discounted cash flow analysis we need to project a growth rate to the Future free cash flows for the company so to do this you can see I plugged in the historical free cash flow for Apple so we can see our year-over-year growth rates and over the past few years they've had an average growth rate of around 12.75 percent and I'm applying a growth rate of 13 based off of that to the Future free cash flows once we've done that we calculate the terminal value which is the sum of all the future free cash flows past the year 2030.
we then take the present value of those future free cash flows and add them together here add Apple's cash and cash equivalents and subtract out their total debt to find their Equity value once we've done that we divide by the number of shares outstanding when we come to a discounted cash flow price per share of 190 dollars quite a bit higher than that current trading price the next valuation we will look at is our multiples valuation and the idea behind this valuation model is we should be able to value a company based on how the market is valuing companies that are similar in structure so we're taking companies like Microsoft Google and meta we're taking their stock price dividing by the earnings per share to get their price to earnings multiple we then take the average price to earnings multiple of these companies and multiply it by Apple's earnings per share and that gives us an intrinsic value of around 139 dollars per share now keep in mind we're in the middle of a huge market decline so all the price to earnings multiples are going to be slightly lower during this time which may mean that the multiples valuation could likely lead to a higher valuation under normal market conditions now moving forward we're actually not going to look at the dividend discount model because Apple still provides most of its value in the form of free cash flow growth while they do pay a growing dividend I think they haven't quite focused as much on this dividend as you can see by their payout ratio as I will in the near future so when we jump over to our output tab we can see three different valuation models the multiples at 139 grams at 103 and discounted cash flow at 190 when we average these three together we come to an intrinsic value of 144 dollars per share now the current trading price is around 139 dollars per share so when we apply a 10 margin of safety we can see our acceptable Buy price based off of our valuations is around 130 dollars per share so I think one of the reasons that Warren Buffett really likes this company is because he knows it has so much potential to be such a great dividend growth stock for a very long time like I mentioned earlier they have a slow starting dividend yield but that payout ratio is currently just sitting at 14.6 percent and they have very good free cash flow growth meaning they're going to be able to grow their dividend for a very long time at a very high rate so there's no doubt that's one of the reasons Warren Buffett loves this company let's go ahead and move on to our next company the second largest holding in Warren Buffett's portfolio is Bank of America stock ticker BAC currently trading at 37.11 cents per share this company takes up over 2 10.5 percent of Warren Buffett's entire portfolio and we can see over the past year they're down about 21.6 percent and year to date they are down 19.64 so let's go ahead and jump into our stock valuation spreadsheet so we can calculate its intrinsic value so again we're going to come up here and we're going to plug in the stock ticker for Bank of America and hit enter and we can see all this data is going to automatically load in if we come over here we can see the current dividend yield for this company is sitting at 2.37 percent and the payout ratio again nice and safe at 26.8 percent now analysts currently have a Target price for this company of 41.10 institutional ownership is pretty good at around 70 percent and the beta is sitting at 1.38 so you might see a little bit of volatility now the first valuation that we will look at is Graham's valuation and again we have the formula laid out for us right here and there's three main drivers just like I mentioned last time that's going to be our earnings per share the growth rate projection and the current yield on Triple A corporate bonds and we can see Bank of America has has very solid earnings per share a decent growth rate projection but again that current yield on Triple A corporate bond is going to drive down this valuation method but despite all this we can see this still leads to a very high intrinsic value of 92 dollars per share now typically the next valuation that we look at is the discounted cash flow analysis model that's not always the best way to value a Financial stock but typically there's two other things that I want to look at the first one that I want to look at is going to be growing assets under management that's very important for financial stocks as we can see right here Bank of America is one of the largest banks in the entire country we can see they've had growing assets under management for about the past 10 years it's really spiked up over the past few years as we can see here and the next thing that we want to look at is the historical Price to Book value so let's go ahead and jump over here and we can see the historical Price to Book value here one of the things that Warren Buffett has said before is that we as investors want to pay less per share than the book value per share so essentially we want to see The Price to Book value at around one or below and Price to Book value is essentially the market price divided by your assets minus liability so if you see right here with the current trading price they have a Price to Book value of around 1.1 so it's getting very close to that price to book ratio where this does become an attractive investment but let's go ahead and jump back over to our spreadsheet and look at our last two evaluations and the first one we'll look at is the multiple so we have some good comparables for Bank of America we're taking their price to earnings multiple and on average the price to earnings multiple is sitting at around 14.42 and if we jump over to our stock screener for Bank of America we can see their price to earnings is sitting at about 11.74 so when we jump over to our multiples valuation that it's going to tell us that essentially this is a potential company that is undervalued leading us to an intrinsic value of around 45.59 now the last valuation model again the dividend discount model values a company based on how much they pay out in dividends and how much that dividend is increasing over time so you can see here I plugged in the quarterly dividend payouts for the past few years so we can see how much they pay out each year here and we can see our year-over-year dividend growth so it looks like they had a really good year here of 20 they did have a year around 2020 where they didn't grow their dividend all which is not a good sign then they had another huge increase at 16.67 percent and their most recent dividend increase around 4.76 percent when you take all of these it still gives them an average growth rate of about 10.3 percent so moving forward I'm applying a growth rate of 6.5 percent a discount rate of 9 which leads to a dividend discount model price per share of around 37.49 pretty close to that current trading price for the company so let's go ahead and jump over to our output Tab and on the output tab we're going to be able to see the three valuation models that we use we have grams valuation 92 dollars per share the multiples at forty five dollars per share and the dividend discount model at thirty seven dollars per share so when we average all three of these together we come to an intrinsic value of around 58.63 now keep in mind we also like what we saw with the growing assets under management and the price to book ratio is getting close to where we want to see it as well so when we apply a margin of safety of around 20 percent we can see based upon this our acceptable Buy price for this company is around 46.90 so this is giving us a signal to buy this stock so this may be a stock that you want to look into in the future and the third largest holding in Warren Buffett's portfolio is Coca-Cola stock ticker KO currently trading at 59.60 per share this is a company that takes up about 8.4 percent of Warren Buffett's portfolio we can see over the past year this is one of the few stocks that is actually in the green they're up 5.81 percent and year to date they're up 0.51 let's go ahead and jump into our stock valuation spreadsheet and we'll come over here and plug in the stock ticker for Coca-Cola KO and hit enter you can see all this data will load in if you come over here we consider paying a dollar and seventy six cents per share in dividends which gives them a dividend yield a very close to three percent now the payout ratio for this company is quite a bit higher than the past two companies that we've looked at but this is a much more mature company than those other two companies so it's not really a red flag I think they have a very sustained simple divin analysts currently have a Target price of 66.61 cents per share and the beta for this company is sitting at 0.57 so you shouldn't see a whole lot of volatility now the first valuation that we're going to look at is the discounted cash flow model for this company so if we come over here and zoom in we can see the projections for this company I've plugged in the historical free cash flow we can see over the past few years they've had an average growth rate of around six percent now moving forward I'm applying a growth rate of around eight percent to the Future free cash flows and to the terminal value once we take the present value of those future free cash flows we add them together at Coca-Cola's cash and subtract out their total debt to find their Equity value and once we divide by the shares outstanding we come to a discounted cash flow price per share of around 62 dollars and 10 cents per share now moving forward we're going to be looking at the multiples valuation we don't have a whole lot of great comparables for this company but we do have a couple so you can see we're taking Pepsi and monster we're getting their price to earnings multiple and taking the average which is around 34.29 once we multiply that by Coca-Cola's earnings per share we get an intrinsic value of about 78 dollars per share now moving forward we're going to look at the last valuation the dividend discount model I think this is one of the most important for a company such as Coca-Cola but we plugged in the quarterly dividend payout so we can see how much they pay out each year this allows us to see our year-over-year growth rate for Coca-Cola it is going to be slightly lower due to the fact they've been increasing the amount they pay in dividends for almost 60 years now we have a growth rate of 2.5 2.5 2.4 and then a pretty good year here at 4.76 so that's an average growth rate over those years of 3.07 so moving forward I'm projecting your growth rate of around 3.5 and a discount rate of 8 which gives us a dividend discount model of 40.48 cents per share so when we jump over to our output tab we can see our three valuations DCF at 62 multiples at 78 and dividend discount model at 40.48 cents per share and we average those together we come to an intrinsic value of 60.26 which is extremely close to the current trading price for this company so let's say we want to apply a 10 margin of safety D based upon this the acceptable Buy price for this company is 54.
and 23 cents per share now one of the things you do have to keep in mind about this company is this is a company that's typically going to trade at a premium because investors are going to flock to these types of Investments during periods of Market downturns we also know this is a very popular dividend safe stock so people know they're going to get a reliable dividend and a growing dividend when they invest in this stock there you go those are the three largest Holdings in Warren Buffett's portfolio go ahead and let me know what you think of these companies in the comments down below and if you own any go ahead and let me know that as well if you'd like people to download a spreadsheet then you can head over to my patreon page at the link in the description so with that being said thank you guys so much for watching and please don't forget to like And subscribe to the channel
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