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I don't think they'll be able to raise their rates at all I don't think they should raise rates at all and I think um that I'm very glad that they learned the founder of the world's biggest hedge fund issued a warning in Davos at the world economic Forum today Ray Doo Bridgewater telling Maria that the FED will keep its hand away from the rate cut Flames now after having been singed but remember last month right before the fed's December meeting Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital went further than that when I asked him what the FED will soon be forced to do I think regardless of what the FED does on Wednesday after that is going yeah I am I regardless of what they do the next thing they're going to do is cut rates they're going back down to zero so Doo says pause shift says the FED shouldn't but will cut rates what does wall Street's most closely call it Economist say let's bring them in Mohammad leran of Al alons is here in a fox business exclusive Muhammad thank you for joining us who's got it right Doo Schiff or neither so I think both in the sense that they'll do nothing this year and if they do anything next year which is 2020 they'll probably cut wow okay why do you predict a recession here I certainly don't I think the US economy is in a really good place just look at the last Labor report the US economy produced twice as many jobs as people expected wages are going up by 3.2% people are coming back into the labor force what's the problem with the US economy two one that we can solve easily self-inflicted wounds the FED as Ray doio said has learned so we we don't have to worry too much about the FED communication and hopefully we can solve the partial government shutdown the second issue it's much deeper the rest of the world is is in a much worse place than we are Europe in particular so keep an eye on what's happening there because the risk is they may contaminate us I don't think they will but they may you wrote an oped uh for the Washington Post I I found it really interesting and it was about the US economy and all of this but it was also commenting on what comes out of Davos in the world economic Forum you know I've been nine years and I think it really attracts some of the most powerful business and world leaders but you know you you specifically said it it tends really almost to be somewhat of an echo chamber of negativity and that it it really doesn't help anybody in this article you say the global economy doesn't have to slow down um you Al you also said Davos has historically been much better at Looking Backward than forward it will help no one to engage in pointless moaning and blame games people in Davos Mohammad are very negative right now are you as negative because to me I see data that look relatively decent here so first I'm not negative on the US economy I can understand the concerns about Europe and China okay but I think that people go too far in extending that to the US now why are people so negative in Davos the Dynamics are the following they come together they talk to each other what do they talk each to each other about what they just saw what they just experienced and what are they experiencing the effects of a Slowdown so what they tend to do and we've seen this last year when they when they projected forward the the good feeling they project forward what where we just come from so be careful about Davos it tends to be much more backward looking than forward looking tell me now aside from the US because you say we look relatively strong here what other company uh country rather I'm always thinking business what other country has a healthy economy that you look at and say well well that may be a place to invest so there are very few right now um if you look at Europe that is the most concerning they're running out of steam they may produce 1.8 to 2% growth when the numbers for last year come out I'll be surprised pleasantly if that come in at half that level there is simply no Economic Policy momentum and reasons why is politics lots of Transitions and brexit which sucking out all the oxygen from policym so I really worry about Europe and it's very hard to find a Shining Light in Europe even Germany is under significant pressure well let's get to brexit for a second um are we overstating the the value or the impact that brexit might have on our economy does it have I guess the ability to derail whether it's our economy or our markets or is that just an overstatement it's a huge overstatement I mean if you want to look at the effects of of brexit focus first and foremost on the United Kingdom then the second derivative will be the rest of Europe but even there the impact will be much smaller by the time you come to us it it will have very little impact what people worry about is not brexit as such it's that politics is now contaminating economics that's what people are saying when we when they say we're worried about brexit here but our economy is fundamentally sound we're still going forward powered by the tax reform and the deregulation well let me end on this Muhammad what are you telling your clients at alons what are you saying to invest in at the moment and and is it a currency it doesn't necessarily have to be a stock market or any region in the world so what I tell people is understand that we've entered a much more volatile period And the reason why it is is because the three major major things that determin stock prices are no longer aligned growth liquidity from central banks and Technical psychology the Buy on dips mentality that's gone so this is going to be a very volatile environment we're going to swing plus and minus 10% with quite a bit of frequency so keep some cash dry that are really good companies that will trade cheaply and you have to be more tactical than than you've been in the past great great advice something tells me Muhammad this is going to be one of the most viewed interviews on foxbusiness.com folks we're going to put up the link in just a few minutes so that you can watch it in case you miss the top half of it we know how that goes Muhammad thank you so much I'm sorry about your jets who are you rooting for for the Super Bowl definitely the Rams all right go Jared go thank you Liz you got it thanks so much he's a man who loves those Jets
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