저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 전쟁 장기화 전망 속 미국 방산주(RTX, LMT) 분석. 펜타곤의 무기 재고 소진 및 증산 요청(Feinberg 지시), 배당·자사주 제한 행정명령 14372 언급. RTX는 부채 과다·PEG 3 등으로 고평가라 장기 투자 비추천, 단기는 지정학 이슈로 押눌림 매수 기회라 봄. 호르무즈 봉쇄 지속과 유가 고점 유지, 연준 금리인상 가능성 50/50 언급. 이스라엘 선거·미국 중간선거 전 불확실성 확대 전망.
다듬은 글
What is happening in Iran? In this video, we'll break down all the latest developments, including Donald Trump's statement that we may walk away from the nuclear talks with Iran. We'll talk about the Feinberg directive that was just released, where the Pentagon is pleading with defense firms to produce weapons because the Iran war has depleted supplies.
Additionally, we will analyze shares of Raytheon (ticker RTX) and LMT, Lockheed Martin, as both companies are gaining more and more contracts and increasing profits to some extent, because the bombs have a pretty good price advantage. Some would say that there is no war without a price advantage , but when there is a war, there is also a price advantage.
Price advantage in ammunition, right ? Because the government pays for it. In any case, we will also talk about other headlines that appear in the news feed. If you want to get free access to the feed right now, go ahead and check it out. You can get it. This is what it looks like. Trump says the US is not publicizing its actions towards Iran.
We'll talk about it. Urgent: Iran to release footage of supreme leader. You can receive this news in real time, step by step. I've filtered this to just Iran, but you can get everything in real time if you download the Meet Kevin app on Android or the Apple App Store. By the way, you can use this news feed absolutely free of charge.
It costs us an incredible amount of money, but it's really not bad. Anyway , let's get to the point, because there's a lot to talk about, and I hate to say it, but as always, it looks like war isn't a case of the troops coming home by Christmas. In other words, I assume that this will unfortunately last much longer, and Donald Trump is looking for a strategic pause while preparing to recharge.
We just heard about the leak that hit Bloomberg and the Washington Post about the Feinberg directive; Feinberg is Steve Feinberg. He is the Deputy Secretary of Defense who on August 5 wrote a letter to the heads of defense companies such as Lockheed and Raytheon, etc., demanding that they propose accelerated delivery schedules, increase production, and provide an action plan within 21 days.
They need a plan for interceptors, missile tracking systems, air defense sensors, widespread surveillance, and so on . It's worth knowing that we have already spent in the first period of this war, in the first 30 days of this war, we used 850 Tomahawk missiles, 1,000 Patriot missiles and THAAD. These are interceptors.
And potentially 1,300 other ballistic missiles. Each THAAD system costs between $10 million and $12 million. And the craziest thing is, when you spend 815 Tomahawks, you have to ask how long it took to produce them. We started producing these 850 pieces back in 2012 . We spent 14 years of production on something we destroyed in 30 days.
And now we are in a worse position than we were before we burned through a 14- year supply of Tomahawks. So apparently Trump is saying, "I guess we need more bombs." The US military is also believed to have used up almost all of its tactical missiles and precision-guided weapons . I'm stumbling a little here .
It is expected that supplies of Patriot air defense batteries are close to exhaustion, if not already depleted. Of course, Donald Trump is parrying this. Some say the reason for this is that the generals say, " Dude, we're done." They still have some left, but the supplies are very low, and they are asking: " Please, let Washington provide us with missiles, okay?" And of course, Trump doesn't want anyone to feel unsafe, which is why he writes at Truth Social.
"We have more Patriots than anywhere else in the world." And that may also be true. Because we may only have 5% left, but that 5% could be greater than the entire stock of any other country. You always have to read between the lines. But, you know, I think some people are frankly scared right now . Or, as Negan would say, "I hope you put your pants on." General Keene says: " We need a way out of this situation because it's becoming a problem." Raytheon just signed a new $745 million contract for air defense and another $ 535 million for TOW missile systems.
These are anti-tank or anti-fortification missiles launched from a tube, with optical guidance and wired or wireless control. This is quite interesting stuff. It is worth noting that the margin on their bombs is about 12.6% . The margin on Pratt&Whitney commercial engines is about 8.3%, which means that the profit on bombs is almost 50% higher.
This is, of course, in addition to Collins Aerospace, which deals with the secondary parts market. The margin there is very high—15.9 %. After-sales service is like with cars. This is how they make money off you. If the plane is on the ground, you will pay any price. If the car doesn't start, you'll pay anything to get this mess moving again , you know?
Well, that's kind of how they can take advantage of you, as sad as it may sound. But let's look at some numbers for Raytheon , and then Lockheed Martin. Now let's look at what's really going on between Iran and Israel, because that will give you an idea of how long this will last. So, many people ask me about these two actions, because, in fact, this is what I do.
RTX sales grew by approximately 14.45% year-over-year . Their total expenses increased by 12.75%, indicating an increase in production costs. I should point out that they only have $8.3 billion in cash with $ 14 billion in accounts receivable . And they still have $63 billion in outstanding bills. Even if they received all their receivables tomorrow, they would still have almost three times as much debt to pay off over the next 12 months.
What? Dude, Raytheon is actually bankrupt. A company with a capitalization of $300 billion is effectively bankrupt. Look, on top of that, they have another $32 billion in long-term debt and about $7.3 billion in other long-term liabilities. They have a lot of debt. There's a lot going on here . Although over the last 6 months their net profit has increased by 31.5% and they have free cash flow.
They have a free cash flow of about 8.4 billion annually. This is approximately 2.8% cash flow yield. That's pretty good. They have cash flow, but frankly, they need it. They need every cent of it just to pay their damn bills. But in the meantime, they pay off about a billion dollars in debt and almost $2 billion in dividends in just half a year.
That's why Donald Trump is a little pissed. It's like, wait, you have 60 billion in debt, which is three times the amount of cash, and you have a lot of long-term debt. Are you using your free cash flow, are you using any of it for what? Did I hear correctly? Do you pay dividends? I mean, it's one thing if you're paying off debt, but you're paying dividends.
So Donald Trump signed the decree. Now keep in mind: if you cut the dividend, the stock could collapse, and that would make the company less able to expand its capacity, right? There is always some compromise here, but Donald Trump doesn't care. With 85 days until the midterm elections, he signed Executive Order 14372, which aims to ban dividends and stock buybacks with immediate effect.
This doesn't really require Congress to take action. This can take effect today, because he is the commander-in-chief. He can direct contracts and add restrictive clauses to new weapons contracts with these companies that effectively prohibit dividends and stock buybacks. Which, actually, doesn't matter.
They'll just move on to paying off their debts, which, frankly , they should be doing anyway, since, well, at least RTX is a little adrift. But in any case, Donald Trump says that this only applies to inefficient companies, and inefficiency means the refusal to use corporate capital to expand and improve production facilities.
Along with, of course, the disruption of deadlines. But this is actually an alternative. So if Trump looks at it and says, "Oh , it looks like you had a lot more cash flow than you ended up investing. It looks like you violated Executive Order 14372." These are quite far-reaching measures. This is actually one of those decrees that has real force.
I usually look at decrees and think, "Dude, this doesn't mean anything. Like, nothing's going to change, right?" And this one really has power. And the same goes for Lockheed Martin. Lockheed Martin is a smaller company, but they are getting a $ 59 billion contract to triple Patriot missile production over 7 years.
Interesting point about Lockheed Martin, then I'll give a quick price forecast and then we'll move on to other stocks. What's interesting about Lockheed Martin is that their sales are up 10.5% while costs are stable. So their P/E ratio actually increased significantly. I mean, sales are up 10% and expenses aren't—that's incredible.
This is partly due to increased deliveries of F-35s, which of course have higher margins than bombs. I've said it before. So they make more money on these things, even if it doesn't necessarily cost them more. So it goes into profit. And when you look at their assets: 7 billion in cash and accounts receivable , 11.6 billion in accounts payable, plus, you know, 29 billion in other long-term debt.
Another company that really should be paying off debt, and their pension obligations are equal to the amount of cash. However, their net profit for the first half of the year grew by 61% year-on- year, and they also have a cash flow yield of around 3.9%. 2.6 billion in free cash flow in just 6 months.
That's about 5.2 billion in free cash flow, money that's not being invested, right? So, you see, it's simply the difference between the net money they received, 3.4 billion, and their actual capital expenditure, 829 million. To be fair , these companies can't spend everything on capital investments.
They need this money to service their debts, because they are up to their ears in debt. I hate to say it, but they are deeply in debt. So, of course, this prompts many to ask, " Kevin, what do you think about the valuation of both of these companies?" I think they are overpriced. I think both of these companies are unfortunately overvalued.
I mean, Lockheed Martin has a price/earnings to growth ratio of 3.75. This is because the stock is trading at 19 times earnings, forward earnings divided by 7% growth, which gives us 2.75. This is too much for a company with a 9% margin. It's no better with Raytheon. They have margins of about 8% and growth of about 9%, and, you know, Raytheon has a PEG ratio of three.
So if you go into our AI for stocks, you don't have to wait for Kevin to tell you, you can just use the AI tool to see that the balance in RTX is a "yellow flag." So it indicates the risks of the balance sheet. However, a 54% reduction in value is needed to arrive at a fair valuation for Raytheon.
For Lockheed Martin — 33%. I think this company also has balance sheet risks. The problem, in my opinion, is that these companies are a bit overheated due to the ongoing war. People say, "Oh, of course, defense stocks will be a winner." I don't know, dude. They found themselves in a hopeless situation .
But I understand why Donald Trump is angry and raging, from an image perspective. However , in part, all our bombings have not helped much in fulfilling our mission in Iran. And now we are pushing for a $1.15 trillion defense budget, all while Donald Trump is supposedly, and I quote, "playing down" a war with Iran.
Yes, this is a new quote from Trump from an interview with Axios . Trump tells Axios: "We're playing down the Iran situation." Trump wants to allow economic pressure on Iran to build over time. He believes that the inflation they are experiencing will destroy them. He believes that Iran does not have enough money to pay its troops.
And Trump says we are only partially negotiating with them, calling it a chess game. Tips from American officials indicate that we are actually trying to sneak 8 million barrels of oil through Omani shipping lanes at night . This will be, you know , the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, not the Iranian side.
Let's just take a quick look at the map. The problem is that it seems like every night we hear about...well, maybe not every night, but at least last night we heard, or the night that was, given the time of the shooting, but you regularly hear, including last night in the Strait of Hormuz, about attacks on ships.
And they don't necessarily know who it is. We, of course, know who it is. These are radical elements in Iran who don't want people to use the Omani side. This is Oman right here, this little, you know, peninsula, okay? And this is Iran. Let me explain this a little more clearly. Iran wants ships to go around their little islands here so they can charge them a 7% tariff or whatever there, or just block all traffic by the US and its allies.
The trick is : "Maybe people can walk this way, and we'll share some of the gathering." And the US is like: " Oh, we'll just try to slip by." They are still being attacked. This is not very good. Not good at all . So, this is where Iran is now saying, “Hey, look, we want more money. We said we wanted reparations, and then you tried to twist our words, arguing that it was just, you know, established investments from a bunch of other Middle Eastern countries.
No. We have more demands than we stated before. So, what do we want? We want the war in Gaza, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, and obviously in the Strait of Hormuz, to end. We don't want Iran to be threatened anymore. We want the lifting of the blockade that is still in place against Iran. We want the sanctions lifted.
We just added more sanctions on Friday, so we're moving in the wrong direction. And Iran is also demanding full compensation and full unblocking of funds . This is very interesting, because back in April these were the conditions for the nuclear deal. Now it has all depreciated. These are the conditions only for reopening the strait.
So all this talk of Donald Trump: "Oh yeah, we're very close to a deal." No, that's not true. This will probably continue for a very long time. Now the markets seem to be turning a blind eye to this . You know, people are buying up these defensive stocks, even though I don't think they're doing fundamental analysis.
I don't know if these stocks are fundamentally...I mean, they've done great , but I don't think it's going to last long. Look, look at the relative strength of RTX. You have an indicator of 71. This is the overbought zone on the weekly chart. This is overbought. On the weekly chart, Lockheed Martin has an index of 58, so it's not that bad.
Stocks have moved slightly away from their highs. But people just throw money at them, thinking, "Okay, let's do it ." The war will last longer, but in the meantime, buy on the dip, baby. The market will continue to grow. Meanwhile, the Bank of America bull and bear indicator is at its highest level, signaling a sell signal like never before.
I have a graph of this indicator here. This is a bull and bear indicator, which is currently at 9.7, which is a clear sell signal from Bank of America. We were at the same level in December 2020, October 2025, February 2026, August 2026. So you see we are on the overly optimistic side here. Of course, we were here in March.
And we're barely down the bull and bear scale, aren't we? We got down to about six. But we haven't been in bear territory since ...well, a few times in 2023, according to this scale. So, in my opinion, this will unfortunately continue for a very long time. And I think that's why these defensive actions are at such high levels, because people are looking and thinking, "Even though Donald Trump may not be talking about pulling out of the nuclear talks, he's also getting ready to get more weapons so we can keep striking Iran." And so far, it does n't look like we're getting anywhere near the goal, especially given that Bibi, who has elections in Israel on October 27, is now saying, " Hey, Trump, to hell with your Gaza deal ." Yes, Bibi from Israel literally just said, "To hell with your Gaza deal, and as long as I'm prime minister, there will never be a Palestinian state in Gaza." These are very aggressive comments that have appeared either because he is trying to take a tough stance, saying: "Hey, Israel will strike Iran itself.
Vote for Bibi. Bibi will protect you. Trump won't do it. Vote for Bibi." Is n't that right? This is probably partly true. But some say it's because Donald Trump is quietly walking away from the nuclear talks. What Donald Trump is now saying is, "Hey, you know, we're just going to walk away." According to the Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump is now privately, quote, discussing the idea of simply exiting the Iran deal without a nuclear agreement to declare victory.
Of course, you know, this needs confirmation, but if this is true 85 days before the midterm elections, then it's not very good. Especially because Donald Trump doesn't want taxpayer money going to Iran, and Iran wants real reparations. They are demanding from the United States billions to hundreds of billions of dollars in compensation for the damages caused.
And Trump says: "We won't pay that." "Hey, other people can invest in your country, but we won't pay for it." So Trump is trying to present it like this: " Oh yeah, countries will invest in Iran." Iran responds: “No, if you don’t do this, the straits will remain closed .” Well, this is all very problematic.
As is the fact that we still haven't solved the very nuclear issue that was the main reason for starting the war. Meanwhile, the Houthis have just struck the Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Jazan. No injuries have been reported. Uh, but the Houthis have also resumed attacks on the port of Moha, part of the Yemeni army.
And on Thursday, Houthi rebels killed 58 government soldiers, making it one of the bloodiest days in recent years. This is a conflict that is building up. So, the Houthis are attacking the army in Yemen. And at the same time, the Houthis are attacking the Saudis. The reason they are attacking the Saudis may be because Saudi Arabia just signed a defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan.
Something like NATO's Article 5 : an attack on one is an attack on all. Israel, by the way, is very angry about Pickaxe Mountain. They call it a growing threat. I agree with them. That's been my suspicion ever since we bombed, you know , Fordow and Isfahan during Operation Midnight Hammer, and also Natanz last summer.
I said, "Why didn't we bomb Pickaxe Mountain?" Probably because we can't. That's the problem. Pay attention to this. Those of you who have been subscribed to the channel for a long time know this. I'm not, I'm not trying to clickbait with this. So , now Israel is increasing its concerns about this .
And that's not a reason for me to say, "Oh, you see, I was right." " Pickaxe Mountain matters." This is actually a way of saying, "this is a mess." Pickaxe Mountain is so important that the Israelis say, " Okay, we'll attack Iran ourselves." "We will continue the war." Which, of course, keeps the risks surrounding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz at a high level for a long time.
Therefore, accordingly, we see the oil market at such high prices. Recently, Brent has been hovering around $80–85. Although we did go lower, it was only during the memorandum of understanding. So, we had a kind of false bottom in oil prices. And it seems like we're now balancing somewhere around $80, which is certainly much higher than it was at the end of last year.
I mean, the peak at the end of last year was around 70. The low was around $59. A little sad . The longer this continues, the more inflationary pressure we will obviously see in the medium term, for example over the next 6 months or more. We need to get through the elections in Israel. We have to go through elections, midterm elections in America.
There's a chance that this will unfortunately only get worse before it gets better. Iran is also becoming stronger due to the missiles and ammunition they use. For example, they use these "Kheybar Shekan " missiles. They can be kept fueled , unlike previous models that had to be rolled out and refueled, which made them easier to destroy.
Here is an example of a destroyed missile. This missile is also likely capable of trajectory change , which is very important for evading interceptor systems. It is believed that the cost of one such missile is from 500 thousand to a million dollars. It costs us between two and five million dollars, and potentially even up to 10 million dollars, to shoot them down or intercept them.
So, the bottom line is that military company stocks are inflated. They are overloaded with debt. These are expensive companies with terrible net profits. And you know, Trump's aggression against them probably won't get him what he wants. At least not anytime soon . But this poses certain risks for stocks.
We'll see. In the long term, I wouldn't invest in them. Can they show good results for the next 6 months thanks to the hype? Of course, anything is possible. Next. This is not personalized financial advice. This is my personal opinion . Second: Donald Trump has angered Bibi quite a bit, at least in part, and this points to a potential escalation in the Middle East, not a reduction, which again suggests that high oil prices will persist for longer.
This unfortunately increases the risk that the Fed will raise rates, although it is now a 50/50 situation for September. Next: The Strait of Hormuz will likely remain closed for quite some time. Next: Iran is increasing its demands. There will likely be no nuclear controls , creating a long-term risk of World War III.
In the near term, this is a geopolitical opportunity to buy on dips. But in the long term, this nuclear issue is a big mess. It is worth being less aggressive, more careful with debts, or avoiding them altogether if possible. Obviously, there is also a very real risk that Iran could escalate its aggression at a time when our weapons stockpiles are depleted.
All this is not good at all. But if you want more of my analytics, including the Alpha report, which will be released again tomorrow morning for course participants, be sure to head over to meetkevin.com . Join our wealth creation courses. The next discount coupon expires on Friday, so see you next time. See you later . .
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