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빌 애크먼의 퍼싱스퀘어가 2022년 1월 넷플릭스 주식을 약 3.59억달러어치(주당 약 359달러)에 매수했다가 2022년 4월 주가 약 226달러에 전량 매도해 약 4억달러 손실을 봤다는 소식을 다룬 영상이다. 핵심 배경: 넷플릭스가 최근 분기 구독자 약 20만 명 감소를 발표했고, 러시아 사업 철수(약 70만 명)와 향후 약 200만 명 감소 가이던스가 겹치며 주가가 급락했다. 애크먼 서한의 매도 논리: 넷플릭스 경영진 역량과 기업 자체는 높이 평가하나, 구독자 성장 둔화와 광고 지원 요금제 도입 등 사업모델 변화로 인해 향후 현금흐름의 예측 가능성이 떨어졌다고 판단했다. 그의 핵심 투자 기준은 단순하고 예측 가능한 자유현금흐름이며, 이 기준을 더 이상 확신할 수 없어 매도했다고 밝혔다. 진행자의 견해: 넷플릭스의 가격 인하(매력적인 가격대) 가능성을 언급하며 매수 기회가 될 수 있다고 보지만, 가격 인상 저항, 광고 모델 잠식 우려, 경쟁 심화(HBO, 쇼타임, 아마존, 애플TV, 디즈니 등)를 들어 확신은 없다고 말한다. 장기적으로 넷플릭스의 브랜드와 스트리밍 시장 지배력은 여전히 강하다고 평가한다. 결론적으로 진행자는 넷플릭스의 매수 여부에 대해 명확한 결론을 내리지 않고, 현금흐름 예측 가능성을 판단하는 것이 핵심이라는 점을 강조한다. 애크먼의 매도 이후 넷플릭스가 향후 1~3개월 내 어떻게 움직일지에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
we have to talk about this man bill ackman sold all of his shares of netflix man this is crazy this is a matter in like two months two and a half months he sold everything off is that insane or what man he had like what a 36 or around a 36 percent loss that is crazy but we can learn so much from this this is going to provide us with a lot of value investing tips tricks kind of insights and how to think about investing because there's so much knowledge to be gained in this quick trade especially with bill ackman and we know bill ackman's history and this is going to be an interesting video but we are going to talk about netflix we're going to break it down and tell me is netflix a buy right now man because the price right now is getting kind of cheap man i think people are kind of doubting it and remember when people doubt a stock without a company that's when you want to do a deep dive so everyone talking about netflix everyone's selling it off that's when you want to get laser focused and find out is this company valued fairly overvalued reasonably valued getting undervalued who knows man so let's get into it in this video before we do please like and subscribe to this like it and subscribe so just in january 26 bill ackman bought 3.1 million shares of netflix stock at its closing price of 359 a share on january 26 for 1.1 billion when the company closed at 226 on wednesday those shares would be worth about 700 million the sale arrives a day after netflix disclosed that it lost 200 000 subscribers in this latest quarter bringing its total global members to 221.64 million and this is the main reason why this huge netflix sell-off it lost subscribers 200 000 and you have to remember that's in a mix with kind of them getting out of russia and russia had around 700 000 subscribers on top of that they're guiding a 2 million subscriber loss and i've been seeing that a lot of people have been saying that oh like the 2 million subscriber loss doesn't really matter because netflix has whatever 200 million or 200 million plus subscribers but in the grand scheme of things are you seeing how netflix is kind of turning out and how they're doing all the kind of wrong moves at the time where people are more price conscious than ever they're raising prices on top of that they're saying that you're gonna have to start paying if you want to share your account previously they've been advocating for you to share your account and kind of get that exposure out to many people but now they're saying oh my god there's a hundred million people out there with um accounts that are not paying for netflix blah blah blah so that's another how to win like how are people gonna take that on top of that they're coming up with the ad supported netflix is that gonna cannibalize their original business or subscription model are people gonna leave the subscription model and go to the ad business like how is that gonna work and how's that gonna play out there's so many questions on what's happening with netflix what is it gonna do guys they have netflix so much competition i made a shirt on it hbo showtime amazon apple tv what else then fubu they have so much competition like it's crazy they have disney like there's so many avenues you can take and not buying into netflix and on top of that they're generating free cash flow right but that free cash flow is kind of like here or there or here or there because they gotta keep reinvesting that money to make new content make better movies so if they're not reinvesting that money how are they really generating that free cash flow because so now they're saying oh we gotta improve margins right but when you're improving margins that's gonna kind of reduce the content spend and if you could reduce the content spend then are you gonna be able to produce the same amount of good quality movies or shows and you already see they're not even producing that many good shows so on top of that they want to increase their margins by not spending as much or relying more on their legacy content man like i don't know there's so many questions you can ask yourself about netflix which is kind of having people on edge having people not knowing if i should buy netflix so we're going to read the pershing square letter that freaking bill ackman just released because bill ackman laid out his investment kind of his thesis and why he kind of switched to his role and switched his mindset when it comes to investing in netflix because man this crash in netflix is huge because he really what lost 400 million dollars on his investment which is a substantial amount of money man i don't care what no one says that's a lot of money man on 2.5 on two and a half months that is crazy so let's read what he's saying about pershing square making this netflix investment and how he sees netflix playing out or why he sold off so today we sold our investment in netflix which we purchased earlier this year the loss on our investment reduces uh purchasing score of funds year to date returns by four percentage points reflecting the loss as of today's close the purchasing score funds are down approximately two percent year-to-date while we have high regard for netflix management and remarkable company they have built in light of the enormous operating leveraging hearing in the company's business model changes in the company's future subscriber growth can have an outsized impact on an estimate intrinsic value so he's saying the growth or the no growth of subscribers is affecting his intrinsic value calculation because losing 2 million subscribers and not knowing if they're gonna gain that back because pretty much in every single geography netflix was used losing subscribers and this is on top of markets like inflation going up a recession is kind of on the horizon people are more price conscious especially and especially in the latin america they're more price conscious and then when you go to um india like all of those places can you really raise prices there even in freaking us they're struggling to kind of raise prices and you can see the kind of pushback but even with the kind of pushback people are still watching netflix and i think they're still enjoying netflix so that's where i can kind of see this might be a buying opportunity because as much as people say they don't like netflix or oh it's raising their prices i still feel like people are gonna go to netflix they're still gonna use it because it still has a brand it still has a good user face it grew revenue at 10 which is not too bad so even with that maybe we can kind of see this as an investment if it gets cheaper who knows in an original analysis we viewed the operating leverage favorably due to our long-term growth expectations for the company in response to continued disappointing consumer subscriber growth netflix announced that it would modify its subscription only model to be more aggressive and going after non-paying customers and this corporate advertising and approach that management estimates would take one to two years to implement so that's where the short-term kind of long-term issues come in so how is this ad revenue new project gonna turn out like is that gonna have a negative effect on cannibalizing a subscription model because a lot of people were banking on the subscription model to provide the revenue but how is this ad supported they don't even know how to use ads they have to go to someone else so someone else could take a cut of that profit like how is this gonna turn out man we believe these business models changes are sensible it's extremely difficult to predict their impact on the company's long-term subscriber growth future revenues operating margins and capital intensity this is amazing because a lot of people don't do this a lot of people will see all this coming up see everything bubbling but they won't make any adjustments they will stick to the holdings because they have this extreme bias but what bill ackman is doing which i really love is he's changing his mind he's changing his thesis that's always exceptional and so hard to do when you have so much money into this company so that's one of the things i really applaud them about is you switch your thesis you switch your stance in a company if you're seeing something different we require a high degree of predictability in businesses which we invest due to the highly concentrated nature of our portfolio while netflix business is fundamentally simple to understand in light of recent events we have lost confidence in our ability to predict the company's future prospects with sufficient degree of certainty based on management's track record we would not be surprised to see netflix continue to be a highly successful company and an excellent investment from its current market value that said we believe the dispersion of outcomes has widened to a sufficiently large extent that is challenging for the company to meet our requirements for our core holding one of our learnings from past mistakes is to act probably when we discover new information about an investment that is inconsistent with our original thesis and that's why we did so here his checklist one of the main checklist items for him is simple and predictable free cash flow generative simple and predictable he's saying that the cash flows are not predictable now because of this new structure this new structure that netflix is holding now and how it's trying to implement this new way of generating revenue that bill admin kind of is suspicious doesn't know a lot about yet and he just can't have that not predictable cash flows not knowing what it's going to do in the future he just can't have that in his core holding we are in the midst of an opportunity rich environment for person square to the dramatic shift in federal reserve policy the high inflationary environment geopolitical uncertainty and the resulting high degree of security price volatility we therefore expect to find a good use for the netflix proceeds so he's saying that there's a better opportunity out there he has that opportunity he has the opportunity cost in his mind please feel free to contact investor relations team blah blah blah for a long term partnership so there you have it guys see where bill ackman is coming from and that's why he kind of switched his mind on this netflix investment and lost over like 400 million dollars so coming back to the valuation and if i should buy netflix or if you should buy netflix honestly i just don't know like i'm honestly in the kind of same bowl as i'm kind of in the same boat as bill ackman why value a company if i actually don't know if the cash flows are predictable right that's what i'm trying to say that's what it really comes down to like are these cash flows simple and predictable and do you know for sure that this business could be cash flow generative moving forward as more competitors are entering this field very heavily very heavily so i don't know but man i'm still have questions about netflix my mind i'm still thinking about it i still see a future with netflix that's the brand it's dominance in the streaming business is still there like it's just hard to replicate netflix and kind of do what it does so i see the advantages of owning a company netflix so who knows guys what do you think about this huge sell-off by bill ackman guys can you please like and peace
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