저자: Just-InvestToday채널진행자,출연자LiLu · 외국인
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결론: 중국 주식은 극도로 저평가됐고, 중국 소비 시장의 성장으로 알리바바·텐센트·JD닷컴의 장기 투자 기회가 크다는 주장. [중국 경제 성장 둔화와 구조 변화] 최근 8~10년간 중국 GDP 성장률은 연 약 2.5%로 둔화됐고, 2010년 이전과 비교하면 성장이 크게 느려졌다. 진행자는 기술 규제와 제로코로나 정책의 영향을 언급하며 중국 목표 성장률 4~5%가 여전히 강하다고 봤다. 리루는 중국 경제의 성격이 근본적으로 바뀌었다고 설명했다. 10년 전 순무역(수출입) 비중은 GDP의 약 9%였고 경제는 글로벌 시장에 크게 의존했지만, 이후 소비 주도 경제로 전환되고 있다고 봤다. 2021년 중국 소매판매 규모는 약 6조 달러로 미국을 처음 넘어섰다고 언급했다. [소비 성장과 수혜 종목] 중산층 확대로 소비가 경제의 핵심이 되며 이커머스 1위 알리바바가 가장 큰 수혜주라는 논리다. 진행자는 알리바바, 텐센트, JD닷컴 비중을 보유 중이라고 밝혔다. 리루는 중국의 소비 시장이 세계에서 가장 빠르게 성장하는 시장이 될 것이라고 전망했다. [주가 하락과 밸류에이션] 진행자는 알리바바 등 주요 중국 기업 주가가 고점 대비 약 66% 하락했다고 언급했다(77~78달러에서 26달러 수준). 중국 시장이 현재 전 세계에서 가장 저평가된 시장이라고 주장했다. [리스크 요인] 하락 측면에서는 정부 규제, 부동산 수요 위축, 상장폐지 가능성, 대만 전쟁 가능성 등이 저평가의 이유로 거론됐다. 진행자는 기술 규제가 합리적이며 경제에 나쁘지 않다고 봤고, 규제 리스크를 과도하다고 평가했다. [리루의 시장 구조 관점] 중국 주식시장이 아직 성숙하지 않았고 투자자들이 부동산·명품·시계 등에 투자하며 주식을 신뢰하지 않는다고 봤다. 신뢰가 회복되면 주가가 크게 반등할 것이라고 전망했다. 또 기업들의 자사주 매입은 저평가 상황에서 주주에게 유리한 행위라고 평가했다. [출연자 전망] 리루는 중국이 향후 투자하기 매우 매력적인 시장이며, 현재 변동성이 오히려 장기 투자자에게 기회를 제공한다고 밝혔다. 진행자는 향후 5년간 알리바바·텐센트·JD닷컴이 지배적 위치를 유지할 것으로 전망했다.
다듬은 글
're talking about this interview like a year ago with bruce and lee lou we already know about lee lou an amazing investor he's one of the only investors charlie monger trusts with his money and that says it all about lee liu so in this interview we're going to skip to the part where he talks about china because in the market right now we have stocks like alibaba tencent jd.com we have all of these companies going down the stocks have been crashing they're all at new 52-week lows and it's looking bad for china in this moment but as long-term investors we have to be able to look five ten years down the road and lilu breaks it down perfectly in how i'm seeing china's growth and what i see for the future and on top of that did you just know that tencent actually just gave us a dividend remember how everyone was saying that oh my god china they they don't you don't own the company you won't get a dividend blah blah blah blah look what happened they actually delivered a dividend as people are saying oh you don't even own the company you don't get any of the profits look what just happened anyways that's the side ramp but let's get into this video over the last eight to ten years china train has grown by only about two and a half percent a year that's less than one percent faster than u.s trade what does that say about chinese growth i mean that's clearly much slower than the trade growth prior say to 2010 2011 uh and it's if it's fluctuated obviously but if anything it's been slowing down what does that say about china's future you have to remember this is on the backs of the tech crackdown and zero covert policy going on in china so the growth isn't gonna be as high as it was before when it comes in terms of gdp they're still aiming for four to five percent which is pretty strong and especially in this economy as you can see what's happening so kind of have to take it with a grain of salt for this this might be one of those years it's not a good barometer on what can go forward so let's see what lee liu says about this well it tells you that the characteristic of the chinese economy has changed fundamentally you know up until 10 years ago chinese growth is bad has been uh was uh international trade to a certain extent and i would have said back in 2010 uh the net trade i mean the ex very important netted out was roughly about nine percent of gdp and so uh chinese economy was heavily dependent on global market now what happened is that and they were growing at really double-digit growth at the time when the rest of the globe global economy was growing at much much less a fraction of that and so at a certain point unless you become the largest trading nation you can't read the whole the rest of the world wouldn't be able to give up and the other thing that is happening is after the citizens become middle classes their demands changes from basically just work saving tuning into really work and saving a consumer it is just also human nature so roughly around 10 years ago as you'll point out that the chinese economy has slowly evolved into more of a consumer-driven economy now to the point that interestingly last year was the watershed near in a sense that the retail sales the total volume retail cells for the first time overtake in the united states china was the largest the retail market in the whole ward at 6 trillion u.s dollars this is one of the most important points of this little section that i'm going to play because remember the chinese economy is growing one of the fastest has the highest demand for retail overtaking usa the consumer base for china is developing the middle class is developing into a powerhouse pretty much as more people from poverty get lifted up into the middle classes charlie munger has always praised china because it lifted so many people out of poverty into the middle class at a crazy crazy rate so what do you think is going to happen with those consumers as the economy develops into a more consumer-driven economy and not as much as just relying on exports and imports gonna start relying more on the consumer demand and buying products and consuming products so who do you think are gonna be the main players in that alibaba tencent neo jetty.com and that's why i have good precise positions in tencent jd.com and alibaba alibaba is number one player when it comes to e-commerce and if you just think five ten years from now what is the predictability that alibaba stays number one or stains a main player as the middle class consumes more gets bigger develops faster who is going to be there alibaba and that's the extreme ball thesis when it comes to alibaba jd.com tencent all of these companies the graphic 5.5 now granted that that was that special year and says that uh the global pandemic ahead other countries hotter than china it's also said that china has done a better job in managing the pandemic but basically the trend is there china is emerging to become the most dynamic fastest growing consumer market in the whole world the fastest growing consumer market in the whole world this is why i'm so bullish on the chinese economy and everything going on in the china market right now even though we're seeing these huge sell-offs in all of these companies we've seen a 66 percent sell-off from 77.78 all the way to 26 dollars and these are the main chinese companies the main ones alibaba 1070.com you know all the main ones this has to be the most undervalued market right now just considering everything going on so putting your money here i can see as a huge bet going forward in the chinese economy on the downside you see many people believing that this undervaluation is actually warranted because we see the government crackdown on chinese companies we're seeing the whole demand in the whole real estate market going south we're seeing a lot of regulation a lot of people are saying damn like who knows if we actually own these companies delisting the taiwan potential war so there's a lot of reasons for all of these undervaluations but if you truly don't believe that this is all reasonable or you don't think this is actually to come to fruition i still think this market right now is super undervalued so go to the taiwan war people are just speculating on that that's not a guarantee like what percent would you put that in the tech crackdown the tech crackdown is not really like a real like the tech crackdown when you look at everything they're doing is honestly justified as they're trying to make an even playing field so what tech crackdown is actually a bad thing for the economy playing less games like is that a bad thing for the economy like that's probably a good thing overall like these kids are becoming addicted what about the the private sector of education like is that really a bad thing um cracking down an alibaba is like pretty much potential monopoly and saying you can't invest in our company or buy products or use our service if you're doing if you're using another service like come on like that is unsustainable in this market so all these techcraft towns seem very rational we see them coming against the d-listing like the d-listing thing they're saying they're trying to work with u.s firms or opening up their books so what crackdown what regulatory headwind is not sensible like everything seems sensible in my mind so that's why i'm going against the crowd it comes to all these huge sellers of chinese companies i don't think they're actually really really rational and that is likely to continue with many many more decades to come and so that really make chinese even more attractive uh to the global economy in terms of people who want to sell expand to the consumers for the middle class in china and the characteristic the economy will change and would also really provide unique and interesting opportunities for global investors so where do you see the unique challenges and opportunities instead of finding value investment opportunities in china well uh the china remains uh i think one of the best market uh if you're a valuable investor um in many senses and the market is still somewhat underdeveloped the market today is not as representative as the real economy the way for example united states listen there's a lot of development in our regard so when you think about this and saying that the chinese stock market is not as developed as the us market and that contributes a lot to these valuations that we're seeing with alibaba tencent and jd.com as a lot of investors in china don't really invest in the market they're still scared of the market they rather invest all their money into real estate or like luxury goods or watches something different than the stock market because they don't trust it so a lot of these people are actually saving or investing in real estate but in the us and canada people invest more in the stock market they look to the stock market as really good investments that provide good returns so the stock market for china is not even mature yet so once people stop trading and getting in and out of companies where can you see these companies like baba tencent jd.com b we already see these huge growth rates for these companies but that's gonna sustain itself as people actually trust the market more in the future when it comes to chinese companies and you know that's going to revert back like i don't think these chinese companies are always going to have this crazy distrust with the chinese market i think that's going to shift and that's when we're going to see these huge comebacks in babajidi.com and 10 cent like when that shift happens you're going to see these stocks explode in my opinion so the volatility as people are not really mature in this market with a lot of trading actually provides us with huge opportunities in this market as people get in and out of these stocks so baba being this cheap 10 cent being this cheap it's not really a really really bad thing as actually buying back their stock at these cheaper prices which is actually giving us a better valuation or actually returning money to us in a really good way but what do you guys think overall about this video as pretty much man lilu broke it down man come on like what are you thinking in the next five years for china and alibaba neo tencent jd.com all of these companies are dominant in their position and you can kind of see how the chinese economy is growing into that or growing into their future so what do you think guys please like this video share it subscribe to my channel and i get back to you in the next video peace
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