저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 하워드 막스 메모를 인용해 미·중 디커플링과 공급망 온쇼어링 흐름을 짚고, 중국 주식(알리바바·텐센트 등) 상장폐지·제재 리스크를 경고하는 영상. 하워드 막스 메모 주장: 러시아 에너지 의존 문제로 유럽의 공급망 재편이 나타나고 있으며, 미국도 글로벌 공급망 취약성 때문에 생산을 자국 내로 가져오려 한다는 내용. 반도체 사례: 1990년 미국·유럽이 전 세계 반도체 생산의 80% 이상을 차지했으나 2020년 점유율은 약 20%로 추정. 대만 TSMC와 한국 삼성이 최대 생산자가 됐고, 미국은 자체 파운드리 육성을 추진 중이라고 언급. 리스크: 미·중 관계 악화 시 중국 기업이 제재를 받을 수 있으며, 러시아 기업 사례처럼 주가가 0에 가까워질 수 있다고 경고. 미국 상장 중국주 상장폐지 우려로 기관 자금이 이탈하고 있다는 언급. 필 타운 질문: 불확실한 환경 투자에 대해 찰리 멍거의 견해를 묻고, 알리바바·텐센트·JD.com 등 보유 리스크를 어떻게 평가하는지 질문. 진행자 전망: 미·중 간 충돌이 실제로 일어날 수 있다는 우려를 제기하지만, 양국 생산 의존도가 커서 미국이 실제 제재 경로를 택하기는 어렵다고 봄. 다만 가능성은 열어둬야 한다는 입장. 결론적으로 확정 전망은 없고 시청자 의견을 묻는 마무리.
다듬은 글
in today's video we are talking about alibaba tencent jd.com all the international affairs that these businesses are gonna face in the future we're talking about howard mark's field town talking about the repercussions of everything that's been happening in the market from the ukraine war with russia from the damn whole pandemic happening globalization in their international affairs with china and u.s and how things are kind of changing now the pendulum is swinging back to the other side so howard marx talks about this in his new memo so we're gonna get into it in this video now so there's so much talk about the listing happening in the market when it comes to usd listing chinese stocks from the new york stock exchange and this is having general fear in the market causing a lot of alibaba shareholders just to flee the market especially the institutions the institutions are leaving china like crazy because they fear that everything is just going to go downhill from now the affairs between china and u.s is just going to crumble alibaba 10 cent maybe this goes to zero because of the situation happening with all these listing rules and everything and basically howard marx talks about how the pendulum is actually shifting to more in-house production how's that gonna affect china going forward because we know that there might be decoupling between the us and china and that's also a big fear especially since the ukraine war happened with russia people are scared that china is going to go to war with taiwan causing all this turmoil in the market so let's get into the memo just released by howard marx talking about this pendulum shifting europe's heavy dependence on russia to meet its energy needs russia supplies roughly one third of europe's oil 45 percent of its imported gas in nearly half of its coal sanctioning russia by prohibiting energy experts would cause a significant dislocation in europe's energy supply one of the major trends impacting the us economy over the last year or so and a factor receiving much of the blame for today's inflation relates to our global supply chains the weaknesses of which has recently been on display thus many companies are seeking to shorten their supply lines and make them more dependable probably by bringing production back on shore so now you're seeing what's happening europe is actually realizing like damn we made a huge mistake of trusting russia and now they're sanctioning them when it comes to gas european countries are screwed so what are they doing about this problem now they're shifting a lot of their resources and supplies by making sure they have enough gas and oil without russia so they're gonna build up more power in europe not depending on russia as much so you can see how this ukraine war is actually shifting the global supply chain issue and now when it comes to us they're realizing damn we had so much global supply relying on asia and a lot of these other countries that would now have to shift on shore so now they're realizing what's been the problem what's happening so this is causing i think more terminal between china and the us as they realize that they need to shift more onshore because you have to remember during those past decades and decades we were really supplying on china for a lot of this production a lot of production was shifted to china to generate more money for corporations in the us now they're realizing with all these global supply chain issues that they have to go back on short so the pendulum is shifting the other way this is a huge risk when it comes to owning alibaba and tencent as relationships with u.s and china are becoming more kind of fierce because of this issue that's on hand right now and people realizing like damn we were focused too much on globalization and now we're gonna bring that all back in line here's an example of that semiconductors present an outstanding example of this trend many of the most important early developments in electronics transistors integrated circuits semiconductors took place at u.s companies such as bell labs fairchild semiconductor in 1990 the u.s and europe were responsible for over 80 of the global semiconductor production by 2020 their share has been estimated to be only around 20 that is crazy taiwan led by taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company and south korea essentially samsung have taken the place of the us and europe as the largest producers of semiconductors today now us is trying to shift away from that we are starting to develop in-house now this would be more foundry production in the u.s because they're realizing damn all this time that we thought globalization was the thing to do to generate more profit to shift demand to get less workers in the u.s to get more profit again this is backfiring on us heavily so what's happening we're going to see the kind of divide maybe in the future on top of that phil town had a lot of questions about the chinese and u.s relationship investing in uncertain environments 361 watch this podcast if you haven't the ukraine and russian war open your eyes to the fact that china can actually be sanctioned in the future like it's not some crazy concept anymore that your stocks can go to zero when it comes to sanctioning when it comes to relationships with the us because that's what basically happened with a lot of russian companies it basically went to zero because all the sanctioning and all these decoupling from the u.s market and if there's ever an issue with china and u.s these same sanctions these same implications of the stock market can quoted zero you see how russia just shut down their market because they didn't like what the u.s was doing who's saying that china can't do the same thing so phil town is asking questions and wants to know what charlie munger thinks about this and how he puts this risk in the bucket of alibaba 10 cent jd.com because he's saying this is a serious risk if there happens to be some kind of conflict with us and china and he's saying it's honestly heading that way between a conflict between us and china but on the same premise i think u.s and china need each other way more than u.s and russia especially when it comes to production there's so much production happening in china with u.s companies i just don't see how they can us would even go that route like i can it could happen but damn all that production that us does with them china would just cause so many damn u.s companies to be affected by it if they just sanctioned them they just closed off their borders like it's just unfathomable that they could actually go that route but it could happen so guys what do you think about this relationship between us and china and how this russian and ukraine war open your eyes to the fact that maybe china can get sanctioned china can decouple from the us especially as us is looking to actually be more onshore with their production now who knows what can happen so guys please like this video subscribe to my channel and get back to you in the next video
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