Recession 2022! How To Beat Inflation With Howard Marks (Real Estate, Stocks, Fixed Income)

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결론: 인플레이션은 공급망 문제 등으로 당분간 높게 유지될 수 있으니 채권 고정금리 비중을 줄이고 변동금리·부동산·현금흐름이 강한 주식으로 대응해야 한다. 인플레이션 배경: 현재 인플레이션은 1970년대와 비교되는 질문을 받는다. 공급망 문제로 부품 부족(도요타 차량 3만 개 이상 부품 예시)과 팬데믹 이후 수요·유동성 증가가 원인이며, 일시적 요인이 일부 있어 점차 안정될 가능성이 있다고 봄. 연준 전망: 1970년대와 달리 연준은 인플레이션 해결 방법을 알고 있으나 금리를 3~5%까지 올리기는 어렵고, 실제로 그렇게 되면 경기침체로 이어질 수 있다는 우려를 제시. 대응 1 - 채권: 고정금리 채권보다 변동금리(Floating rate) 상품 비중을 늘리는 것이 유리. 금리 상승 시 수익률이 조정됨. 대응 2 - 부동산: 수요가 탄탄한 시장의 다가구 주택 등은 임대료를 인상해 인플레이션을 상쇄할 수 있으나, 임차 수요가 뒷받침되어야 함. 대응 3 - 주식: 인플레이션(약 7%)을 웃도는 잉여현금흐름(FCF)을 창출하는 기업이 유리. 현금 창출이 없는 기업은 매도세가 나타나고 있으며, 강한 경쟁우위·우수한 경영진·합리적 가격의 기업을 선호. 언급 종목: 개별 종목 언급 없음. 자산군 수준의 조언만 있음. 리스크: 금리 인상 폭과 속도, 경기침체 가능성, 인플레이션 장기화 가능성. 출연자 전망: 인플레이션은 점차 안정될 수 있으나 당분간 높은 수준 유지 가능성 있음. 연준의 금리 인상에 따른 경기침체 리스크를 경계.

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01. hello everyone welcome to just invest today in today's video we are talking about the howard marx interview that he did with william green is the recession coming in 2022 or maybe even 2023 because so many people are worried about the recession coming there's so many signs and in this video howard marx talks with william green and they talk about how to beat inflation so if you want to watch the whole interview i'm going to link it down below but he gave so many jewels and gems i'm gonna go through it in this video because man inflation is already at like what seven percent and it might get out of hand because who knows man i feel like the fed is not even telling us the truth about the real inflation in this market man and this can all cause a big recession in this video we're gonna talk about it but before we do can you please right now the first thing howard marks actually talks about is that he always gets the question is this like the 70s because during the 70s inflation was double what it is today which is actually crazy to think so he gets this question a lot right now you have to think about what happened and why inflation is higher he still believes that some of this is due to the supply chain issues and that will fix itself over time because remember what happened during the whole pandemic and everything got shut down and he gives an example of a thai yoda that has more than 30 000 parts and if you don't have a part what are you gonna do you just have to wait so there's gonna be limited supply and there's gonna be such a high demand because people still wanna toyota's on top of that you had a lot of people just getting money right so there was just a lot of money floating around in the market because the fed was giving a lot of leave people were scamming using all those ppp loans had all this money to splurge but there was no supply for that still things that some of this inflation is still transitory which is kind of a good sign on top of that that pandemic relief is kind of slowing down or it's non-existent anymore so he thinks it's gonna more stabilize as time goes but he still believes that there's gonna be high inflation so we still wanna be able to beat inflation so we wanna be able to use stocks real estate or even fix income to beat inflation because we know the fed is really not gonna do what it's supposed to do back in the 70s they didn't know how to fix inflation they were using price controls and all these other elaborate schemes to try to hinder inflation but it wasn't working and now we know how to do it we just have to raise interest rates but guess what do you think the fed will actually do that to like three to four to five percent can you imagine that what it would cause in the market the recession would be upon us if that actually happened so howard marks does talk about three ways so let's get to the first way fix income instruments so when you're talking about fixed income instruments he suggests that you have more in the floating rate instruments and less of the fixed income because when it comes to fixed income you can't really do much you don't have any wiggle room for a high interest rate environment but with the floating rate instrument you're able to actually raise your prices as rates go up to adjust to the environment which is amazing so he wants you to actually get into the more floating rate instruments than the fixed income instruments that have like a baseline as for all the people using fixed income instruments next we have real estate man and we know the real estate market is going crazy so if you bought in a healthy market like a multi-family home you're gonna be able to raise rents putting all that onto the customer so that's gonna be an amazing way to actually beat inflation but you still have to have real estate in a good market where people are actually willing to pay for those rent prices third we have stocks if you actually want to be in inflation with stocks you have to make sure that your stocks the businesses that you actually own are actually beating out inflation seven percent so that's how you have to look at businesses that actually generate free cash flow so are they beating out inflation with the free cash that the business is producing so we want higher than seven percent and that's a good thing in this environment because a lot of these businesses that we probably own right now are not producing cash and we don't know how much cash they're gonna produce in the future but if you still have hope on that company that your purchase that doesn't produce cash now it's okay because if they're gonna produce all that cash in the future then you're still gonna make a killing in the market but people are so skeptical you can peop you can see that people are selling out of so many companies that are not producing cash because this high inflation environment plus interest rates may be going up that's why a lot of people are selling these high-flying stocks that sometimes are not producing cash because they want more safety what comes with more safety is buying companies that you understand that have a strong competitive advantage that have really good management and you can buy at a solid price for basics man so that's it for this video guys please like it subscribe to my channel i'm always producing so much content man peace