저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 하워드 막스는 중국 투자에 긍정적이며, 중국 비중을 낮게 가져가는 것은 충분하지 않다고 본다. 중국의 정치·이념 리스크는 매우 커서 결과 범위(zero~최고 성장)가 넓고 아무도 정확히 예측하기 어렵다고 설명. 중국은 세계 2위 경제이며 장기적으로 성장 잠재력이 크다. 현재 유럽·일본은 '경제적 노년', 중국은 '경제적 청소년'에 비유. 워런 버핏처럼 확실성을 중시하는 투자자는 중국을 피하지만, 막스는 젊은 투자자로서 상승 여지를 본다. 주가 급락 시 리스크 대비 보상이 좋아지므로 중국 기업 비중을 크게 가져갔다고 언급. 막스는 중국 주식, 중국 NPL(부실채권), 중국 신용채권에 장기 투자 중이며 중국 채권·주식 투자를 확대하고 있다고 밝힘. 언급 종목: 알리바바(BABA), 텐센트, JD.com — 방향: 상승(장기). 막스는 5년 후 이들 기업이 지금보다 커질 것이라고 봄. 리스크: 대만 침공 등 지정학 리스크, 규제 불확실성, 시진핑의 의도 불명확. 출연자 전망: 중국 전반에 대해 장기적으로 긍정적이나 단기 변동성은 클 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
in today's video we are listening to howard mark's talking about china this is basically my alibaba prediction my forecast my stock analysis because he's talking about china and what he sees in the market and william green did an amazing interview with howard marx and man this guy is a godfather he knows so much about the investment cycle how to invest and what to do in these type of markets so let's listen to what howard marx has to say about china alibaba tencent all of these companies because they're all based in china when you have a chance listen to the whole interview but i'm just gonna listen to this china segment because it's super important before we get into this video can you please like this video and like it and subscribe what do you think about china in that kind of nuanced way where you're looking yes well uh you know uh one of my heroes was investment philosopher who died around nine i believe and he wrote a memo which is one of the greatest things i ever read called can can we reduce risk can risk being reduced to a number and one of the things in there is he said there's a range we don't know where the answer is going to fall within the range sometimes we don't know the extent of the range and that is basically china for you man because everyone has this thing in their mind that man it's either china goes down to zero like that ji jinping takes all the money out of your companies takes the company privatizes it does all that stuff making it a zero or china is the fastest growing market which is going to go to all time highs it's like either or there's like no in between when you're making this china investment so there's a huge range right now that no one really knows china is the range is enormous because we're dealing with cosmic questions and by the way we think we can do economic analysis these are not economic financial questions these are political ideological social questions uh and um so but it's an important question because china is the second biggest economy in the world and that's it right there people are trying to predict what's going to happen in china and what's going on so that's why so many people are avoiding china alibaba tencent because there is this kind of uncertainty around what is really going to happen even though xi jinping has been coming out and saying that he's trying to amend relationships with us he's trying to like kind of see the us market and what they want and actually kind of succumb to that by actually letting regulators actually look at their audit books talking to like the um american markets saying oh you're going to abide by your rules we don't want to have any turmoil so who knows what's really going to happen in the future and remember markets hate that they hate uncertainty and i have friends who can tell me the date on which it will become the biggest economy in the world and that's the biggest chance people are taking that china is gonna become the biggest economy in the world it's just due time they have so many people they're building technology so fast and it's just gonna it's just gonna be that but who knows when uh and uh you know i've always thought you should have money invested in china and you know one of the things i've seen over my years in this business is something comes up whether it be index funds or emerging markets or something like that and and people say oh we got that covered i got two percent in that you know if it's important two percent is not enough uh it won't move the needle you know people uh but it's not enough so there you have it two percent in china is not enough and that's how a lot of people see china like they it's either they put their two percent and it's like okay i get a little a little bit of upside or people like me man i have like what 30 40 probably a little bit more 50 in china so if china actually takes off then i just have all of that upside and i get all of that upside so it's kind of like an either or right now so people can say oh you're taking so much risk you don't know what's going to happen but i i just don't see where there's always a chance there's a black swan event with china if china just takes over taiwan some situation like that but for some reason in my mind i do not think that's going gonna happen in five years like it just i just can't fathom it even though it can happen i'm not saying it can't but man if i can go five years i know five years from now alibaba tencent jd.com they're all gonna be bigger than today guaranteed they're all going to be stronger better companies so if i can last that five years to maybe kind of sell down my position after like five years just so i can get more balance because i see so much upside and once i take some of that upside off and then get back down to like 10 15 20 i think i'll be happy honestly but if you don't have enough in the market in china then what are you really doing you're not really investing in china investing in alibaba if you don't have that more allocation to that because you don't get the upside barely get the upside if it ends up going crazy and and uh so if china is going to become the world's biggest economy and if things work out in a positive way in the long run is not enough in my opinion and as you say we've had uh we've we've had investments in chinese equities uh we've been long-term investors in chinese npls uh and and we're investors in chinese credits yes um how do you dope it out not easy uh on the one hand you do have the economic strength size and growth potential on the other hand you have the question of how will china behave towards its citizens businesses and towards the rest of the world and that is the big million dollar question that no one can really answer because no one knows what xi jinping is thinking so that's why people like warren buffer are just avoiding this because warren buffett is all about certainty of what he's doing and what he's investing in he needs to see a clear path 10 years out like a 10 year clear path of knowing where this company is going to be if he doesn't see that he is not investing in it so that's why you have people like warren buffett not investing in china which does make sense but i'm still young i still can see a lot of upside and if i make it out of this you make it big you're hitting the jackpot at that point and so in the last six months uh or so we've seen people say uh china is not investible that's the word uninvestible now my ears perk up when i hear that because if nothing else it introduces the possibility that china is cheap and that's it right there that was the main thing for me when people draw down these companies these stocks so much it just perks up your ears like he said and that makes us more attracted to that opportunity because the lower the price the better risk reward that we have for these companies so that's why i was so heavily invested in china when the market crashed for tencent jd.com in alibaba by definition nothing that people describe as uninvestible uh can be uh born aloft on the winds of of uh of uh adoration uh it it's not overpriced maybe it's underpriced maybe something once you do uh i'm not an expert in china when i go to china and they always say well what do you think about china i said why you live here but it has been my view for the last half a dozen years what i tell people is that europe and japan are economic senior citizens for economic adults doing fine but i would argue that the best decades are behind us china is an economic adolescent uh and if you've ever had an epilepsy in your house as i have then you know it can be tempestuous and there are ups and downs but you also know that the adolescent's best decades lie ahead so there you go are you willing to take that reward that is the big questions there'll be so many ups and downs in volatility with china you already see it this year which is crazy the last two years have been crazy for chinese stocks if you haven't been paying attention and i described china as an adolescent economically and um this is an example of the ups and downs that i was talking about now i didn't envision anything in particular but you know when they when they come down on for-profit education uh et cetera and and when the world worries about their geopolitically and militarily that's what we're talking about here uh when you get into the into the adolescence and the new new things uh stuff can happen i happen to be positive china you know by the way just like you couldn't prove the day after the lean democracy that the financial system was not going to melt down you can't prove what china's future holds and there you have it man he is bullish on china he's very positive about china he's actually going over to china to invest in like their bonds their debt and he even said he's investing in their equity so you have to do what's right for you and your allocation and how you think about china how you think about your safety in your own capital so man what do you think about this video what how remarks said about china about the alibaba tencent jd.com because they're all in china man so we're doing this prediction of what is gonna happen with these companies man so like this video subscribe to my channel and i get back to you in the next video peace
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