저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프 CNBC 인터뷰 발언을 사실 대조. 애틀랜타 연은 실질GDP 추정치가 4%에서 1.2%로 하락, 제조업 고용 약 10만명 감소, 경제활동참가율은 1976년 이후 최저 수준. 건설지출은 2024년 중반 이후 급감해 디스인플레이션 신호로 해석. 반도체 자급률 40~60% 주장은 SIA 보고서(2032년 14%)와 불일치. 금리 인상 가능성 약 76.5%로 본인은 인상 가능성을 반박. 중동 전쟁·이란 관련 리스크, 레버리지·현금비중 리스크 언급.
다듬은 글
Donald Trump just gave an interview to CNBC. I'm going to break down everything Donald Trump said and then compare it to facts and data so we can really understand where we are in our economy today . Is there a potential reason why our latest Atlanta Federal Reserve estimates of real GDP actually fell to 1.2%, whereas they were previously at 4%.
What is changing in the economy? And which things Donald Trump says are true, and which of his words are quite stretched? In my opinion, these comments are actually critically important to know because as a long-term investor, you want to know what might happen in the future. To give you a quick example: Donald Trump suggested that Elon Musk and SpaceX would be willing to donate some SpaceX shares to Trump's accounts, similar to what Micron did with a $250 million stock donation.
Note that these stock donations were announced when the stock was up about 15%, and these shares have already fallen about 15%. So, maybe they tried to cover it up, so to speak. But anyway, let's consider what Donald Trump said. I find it useful to pay attention to some of these words. Let's look at this in more detail.
First, Donald Trump says that more factories are being built than ever before. And it's really important to know the details of this because, frankly, construction costs actually do the opposite. Despite the massive growth or development of artificial intelligence, construction spending in the United States has actually fallen sharply since around mid-2024.
This was at the end of Joe Biden's term. So we're not trying to pick a president here, but manufacturing got a really big boost from that low hole, thanks in part to the inflation reduction act and the chip act. Now remember that the inflation reduction law was built around introducing manufacturing similar to the inverter manufacturing in the final phase in America, and that's when the inflation reduction law was, ironically, initially inflationary, as there is a growth phase and a deflationary one towards the end of the decade.
Most people have forgotten about the Inflation Reduction Act, or even the CHIPS Act, because yes, they both stimulate construction in the United States; This is inflationary. But when that construction is complete for both, whether it's TSMC Arizona that Trump is bragging about (uh, we'll talk about that in a moment), Intel's manufacturing plant, Micron's manufacturing plant that we see in America, a lot of it will be completed in mid-'27, late '27, '28, '29.
That's when we'll see a lot more supply. And so even though we see the inflationary early effects of this building boom, and we still see this sticky inflation today, as a long-term investor, I look and I see, okay, Trump says more factories are being built . What do I do with this? I look at the data.
The data shows that I think more plants were built, mainly because of the inflation reduction law and the chip law, which Donald Trump apparently criticizes, even though he secretly funnels the chip law money to his minions. Uh, this reduction in construction spending, in my opinion, is a sign that construction is nearing completion and that disinflation is approaching.
So I take this phrase from Trump and think it's correct. That is why this thesis about disinflation appears. This is just part of my view that we will see more disinflation, although much of this is also based on research from the Congressional Budget Office ( CBO). The CBO, the Congressional Budget Office, conducted a study that showed that the inflation reduction law would be inflationary at the beginning of the first 5 years and disinflationary during the last 5 years.
We're barely approaching the second 5 years, which is actually exciting to me, and it's optimistic that the rates are going down over time. Donald Trump says we created a lot of manufacturing jobs. This is not entirely true. Since Donald Trump took office, manufacturing jobs have been cut by about 100,000.
What bothers me the most is when Donald Trump says, and I quote, "There are more people working than ever before." Please note, these are literally just the first two lines of the interview. It takes so much time to sort through all these damn statements. But in any case, this is not true. When we look at the labor force participation rate , if we just look at the total population, well, you know what?
The US population is growing. Of course , more people are working than ever before. But that's why we look at the ratio, what is the ratio of working people. Uh, what is the ratio of working people today compared to the past? And if we actually look at the labor force participation rate, which today has fallen another 30 points, what do we get as a result?
Well, the lack of CO to CO was pretty crazy. People stopped participating in the labor market. Of course. Excluding CO, we are actually at our lowest labor force participation level since about 1976, when our economy was experiencing stagflation. This is madness. And, in my opinion, that's not something to brag about.
Fewer people are participating in and benefiting from this economy than ever before. Perhaps that's why the civilian workforce was thought to have shrunk by 720,000 jobs in the last month alone. These numbers are volatile, so I usually don't like to rely solely on the Bureau of Statistics BS data, as I call it.
Uh, I like to rely on things like this, which is a long-term trend that we could see for decades. And we could see that labor force participation actually started to increase just before CO, if you recall. It was when I was covering Jerome Powell, and I remember Jerome Powell saying, "Folks, we're finally seeing low- income people participate, and other aspects of the economy, people who don't normally participate, are finally able to participate in the economy." Then they bragged about it.
The company came and destroyed everything. But, unfortunately, Donald Trump's policies have not made the situation any easier. Is it possible that part of this decline is also related to artificial intelligence? Absolutely. So I don't want to be here to lash out at politicians. I'm just trying to look at it as a long-term investor and say, " Look, buddy, where is this [ __ ] money and where is this money going?" And what I see is that fewer people are participating in this economy, which means fewer people will be able to buy homes, which means fewer people are contributing to the purchase of goods and services, which means a lower or even lower contribution to GDP.
This is not very good. Now Donald Trump is bragging and saying, "Oh, well, you know, people's 401k retirement accounts have gone up 80-90%. But that's only really true if they all invest in semiconductors or, for example, Micron stock. The S&P 500 has risen about 24% since his inauguration. About 19% of that happened just after, I quote, the ceasefire, in which, according to Donald Trump, we won everything, which we'll also talk about in a moment.
So, you know, yes, the economy is thriving thanks to some of this absurd spending on AI that we've seen, and that's great . But if this is getting off topic for another video, because we're starting to get some red flags, especially, you know, some of the additional comments that we've seen today. We'll talk about this later.
Well, there's not much left that's holding us back, and that's not great. Well, Donald Trump, and I actually agree with him , uh, not so much because they're bad people, but Donald Trump says that bad people want to raise rates to destroy the economy . I completely agree that if rates go up, the economy will be destroyed.
But I don't think that's what bad people are trying to do. I think this is the bond market saying, “Bro, you created another inflationary shock. We are going to punish yields and suggest that the Federal Reserve should raise rates.” Uh , I mean yields are up again today, even though we missed the employment data, and part of that is because there was such strong sticky inflation.
So the bond market is screaming that the Fed is raising rates. These are not bad people. This is the bond market collective. People are betting with their wallets, saying, brother, this is not good. To be fair , he has softened a bit. We have researched that our chance of keeping rates stable has now increased from about 18% to about 23% of the chance of keeping rates stable this year.
Personally, I do n't think rates will rise at all, but according to this, there is at least a 76.5% chance that we will see at least one interest rate hike. I claim this and have been saying it for the last month. I will continue to say this. I think that's wrong. My opinion is well known. And I think that's also part of this channel that people come back for, is, "Hey , Kevin, what do you think about this ?" You don't have to agree with me, but I'll tell you my opinion.
Yes. Uh, Donald Trump was asked directly, "What would you say to people who say you're just trying to get rich while in power?" And I mean, honestly, there were a lot of people who, and before I say that, I want to clarify that people will immediately respond to this. Good? So, I'll start with what people will say.
People always start by saying, “Oh, well, Donald Trump’s kids and the insiders who work for Donald Trump, like his advisors, they don’t know what’s going to happen in the Oval Office. They don't go to dinner, talk to each other in person, or play golf together. They can never know." These are just lucky deals.
How fortunate that Donald Trump's advisors bought Axon stock, Axon stock on February 10th, just a couple of weeks before Axon was awarded a huge Taser contract worth over $200 million . Or how about this? On July 23, 2025, Trump acquired Broadcom, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia for $5 million .
Later that day, Donald Trump unveiled his artificial intelligence action plan, a policy that benefited these very companies. Oh, but these were independent advisors. They could know, but they wouldn't have any way. Donald Trump reported over 21,000 trades in his investment accounts in 2025, an average of 80 trades per day.
While our economy was being crushed by the trade debacle of liberation, people were apparently saying, “Well, this isn’t Donald Trump’s trade. "This is unfair." Okay, people aren't saying Trump is trading. People say that Trump and his team are winking at insiders who trade on behalf of Donald Trump.
And of course, this is where Donald Trump, answering a question, literally answered the question: "What do you say to people who are trying to get rich and who say they are trying to get rich?" He literally jumped on us and said, “Well, the Dow Jones just hit an all-time high . We achieved 80 out of 81 maximums." Something like that .
Something like this , Donald Trump eventually came back to it and said that his family is doing this and he just doesn't know. Apparently, he also had no idea how much money he was making from cryptocurrency, that he had made billions of dollars from his cryptocurrency, while the Trump token and Melania coin had lost over 99% of their value.
He obviously had no idea that his investors were 99% scammed, but he made billions of dollars. I think that's what he meant when he called himself the crypto president. But he didn't give a direct answer to all this. He said, “Crypto, we need to be on top. "We must defeat China." And everything I do has a conflict of interest.
If I buy a cake , it has a conflict of interest. I can't do anything without a conflict of interest. This is fake news. Well, whatever. So the bottom line is that Donald Trump is doing what you would expect when it comes to insider trading allegations. Let's. What do you mean when the Dow Jones reaches new heights?
In any case, Donald Trump then claims that by the end of his term we will have 40 to 60% of our semiconductor chips made in America. Hmm. Good. When I heard this, I was really happy. I thought, "Oh, this must be really good for Micron or Intel, right?" And so, of course , I wanted to check it out as a long-term investor.
So that's exactly what I did. I checked this and it is incorrect. At least, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association, which published a report stating that the US is expected to increase its global manufacturing capacity, meaning semiconductor manufacturing capacity will grow for the first time in a decade from 10% today to 14% by 2032.
Now, US capacity in advanced logic will grow from 0% in 2022 to 28% by 2032 . Good. Good. Good. I mean, it's not 40-60%. So, we definitely won't be producing 40, 60% of all chips. We will produce 14% of all chips, maybe. And that certainly won't happen before the end of his term in 2029, unless he plans to leave office.
In fact, it will be until 2032. Advanced logic. This is actually interesting. Uh, DRAM manufacturing , advanced packaging , you know, 2 nanometers, whatever. Uh, probably partly because of TSM Arizona, but also what Micron is building. So it's actually pretty decent. Uh, and the US will provide a quarter of the world's capital spending between 2024 and 2032, second only to Taiwan in building these, uh, semiconductor factories.
So, you know, as always, it's worth adding color to what Donald Trump says. But I have to say, this is a good amount of advanced packaging coming to the United States. And this, unfortunately, just reiterates my deflationary thesis that , damn it, a lot of chip manufacturing is coming to the United States.
Donald Trump boasts about how Arizona is doing so well in chip manufacturing thanks to the largest company in the world, TSM. Those were his words. I think he meant the largest manufacturer. But anyway, yes, TSM announced a plant in Arizona during Trump's first term, a $12 billion commitment, but it didn't really happen until Biden wrote them a check for $6.6-6 billion through the chip law, and that's when it actually started.
To be fair , under the threat of tariffs, TSM says, "How about we invest even more? Please don't tax us , bro. It's already very expensive to build in America. Please don't make it worse . We'll just give you more money." Okay, okay. Uh, then we start talking about, uh, you know, this obviously supports my deflationary thesis, but anyway then we start talking about Intel and corporate shares from the United States or the United States in corporate companies.
Um, it's true that Donald Trump bought 9.9% of Intel shares, and it was a big, or should I say, profitable move . That was good. But the irony is that it was n't American money, like Donald Trump's dollars, that was used to purchase the stake. Ironically , again, they agreed to say, “Hey, Biden gave you $8.9 billion in grants.
How about turning that into equity? » Honestly, it's pretty brilliant because not only did the US get a share of this, which brought in tens of billions of dollars, which is great. So we have to give Trump credit for that. But, I mean, Donald Trump also rolled out the red carpet for Intel and, you know, made it a lot easier to get permits or something .
After all, it's nice to have the president in your pocket, and I think that's why OpenAI is now offering to give Donald Trump a 5% stake in the company. You know, they're saying they're postponing their IPO until 2027 because they're having trouble reaching their, you know, their $1 trillion valuation.
But part of it , to be honest, is probably just to get special favors from Donald Trump. People know that if you give money to the Trump administration , you get what you want. I mean, that's how Trevor Milton, a huge con man, eventually got his pardon along with other people. But in any case, the Trump administration’s request prompted OpenAI to delay the broad release of its latest AI model, GPT56, after competitor Anthropic suspended access to its Fable 5 model due to government orders coming from Henry Lutnick.
Right. Uh, Mr. Lutnick really, uh, Henry Lutnick, Howard Lutnick, uh, Lutnick, you know, has a lot of power here, turning off these models, and OpenAI sees this as an opportunity to get ahead of Anthropic. Hey, we'll sweeten your tie, our ties with your administration. How about you just have a little bit of stock in us and that will reduce your likelihood of wanting to turn us off?
Hey, keep unplugging, uh, Fable. Although, to be fair , Fable is back. He came back yesterday. I started using it again. I like it. I think this is a great product . In fact, I would pay more for Fable than for any other, uh, AIS. Uh , but that's normal. You know, they say it's like a horse race, you know, now one is leading and the others are leading and the others...because it's a horse race.
Like, you know , I actually really liked Gemini, uh, at the end of last year. I've talked about this many times on the channel, but it seems to me that Gemini is in third place right now for certain things. Yes, madness. Uh, but anyway, then Donald Trump invades Iran. Oh God , I'm sorry. I have to say, oh my God.
Uh, Donald Trump is entering Iran, and his line on relations with Iran is for the US to defeat Iran militarily. I think they agreed to everything we asked for. And I'm like, "Really?" Because if I look now at what Uni Credit says, it's actually the opposite. Here it is. UniCredit . Iran is likely to become a middle power in the Middle East.
Iran's main demands were accepted by the United States, including the complete lifting of sanctions and the right to continue enriching uranium for peaceful purposes. Iran could emerge stronger in the war, especially now that it can modernize its economy without sanctions and clearly controls the Strait of Hormuz, especially since it was the traditional route that ships traveled.
They would embrace Iran to stay, or they would embrace Oman to stay away from Iran. Well, now Iran says, “No, no, no, no. You all need to move closer to Iran around Larak Island so we can strike you if you don't pay our dues." So, you know, on top of that, Iran continues their, uh, production of whatever they're doing at Pickaxe Mountain, which, as far as I can tell, has not been touched by any of our military strikes, not just Operation Midnight Hammer, but our, uh, last operation.
Evil. Because, in my opinion, they are paving the way for nuclear weapons . And now they have not only the money, but the investment and economic freedom to potentially do just that. Especially because when you have peaceful uranium enrichment, the line between when peaceful enrichment becomes weapons-grade becomes very blurred unless you have inspections.
Donald Trump says there will be inspections, but we haven't heard of any such agreement yet. So we'll see. Uh, I'm just surprised that Donald Trump is a little, uh, bragging about Iran, but, you know, even the Pentagon itself published an article that wasn't that great. Donald Trump says their military is destroyed.
And there is a Pentagon estimate that says that 60% of the Iranian navy and 2/3, or 60%, of the Iranian air force are still considered combat-ready. Evil. Uh, then Donald Trump goes on to say that I don't want to be a president with depression on my record. I don't want to be Herbert Hoover. And it will be ironic if in two years we find ourselves in a depression, because, as you know, we should have predicted it.
But he says I don't want to be Herbert Hoover. Herbert Hoover raised interest rates and taxes and made a terrible mistake. But let's see if it weren't for the tariffs. Interest rates would likely be lower. If it were n't for this stupid war with Iran, interest rates would probably be lower. Both of these problems, created by Donald Trump, have prevented the Fed from lowering rates further.
And on taxes, how ironic that he references Herbert Hoover, because Herbert Hoover signed the Smudge-Holly Tariffs of 1930. A thousand economists predicted at the time that Herbert Hoover would veto them, but he...signed them anyway . Holly's tariffs raised the average tariff level to about 20%. Trump peaked at 27%, and now they are probably closer to 12-17% because of all the deals and exemptions.
It's a little hard to measure because there are so many deals. But Donald Trump says the real problem is that Holly didn't repeal, or, um, Herbert Hoover , uh, the previous tariffs, and if he hadn't repealed the previous tariffs, then, um, there wouldn't have been a depression. In other words, tariffs are good, and Herbert Hoover raised taxes, which he did in 1932, and that caused the Depression.
But the depression had already been going on since 1929. So , I think Donald Trump's story here is a bit blurry, to say the least. Donald Trump says we escorted ships from Iran during hostilities. I also find this very interesting because Sentcom has repeatedly denied this. He also says that Elon has a little problem with Donald Trump because Donald Trump repealed the electric car mandate and the electric car loans, which, you...you know, that's true.
Uh, but I do n't really think it upset Elon. I think Elon was upset that he put his name and his brand on Dodge to cut government spending. And then Donald Trump signed the " Big Beautiful Bill" into law, which Elon called a disgusting abomination. And he actually campaigned against a great beautiful bill, the debt expansion.
And after that, they started hating each other because Donald Trump's legacy was tied to this bill. Elon is like, “Why am I killing myself? "I'm making all these government cuts, and here you are spending all this other money." “It’s kind of like , you know, the wife is trying to budget and save money at home, and the guy spends, you know, $5,000 on premium golf clubs and a trip to Phoenix to play golf, right ?
It just upsets what would otherwise be considered a partner's balance. Donald Trump is also doubling down on his threat to prosecute Lisa Cook, which is quite remarkable that he is still doing so. Uh, he says he's going to improve the process and eventually get her out, even though the Supreme Court has effectively barred him from removing Fed leaders, but Donald Trump apparently thinks there's a loophole.
So, I think the bottom line of all this is that we are at a sensitive point in the economy. First of all, we have, uh, cash balances that are really, really low. Uh, overall cash balances and money market funds are very, very low. So people are very invested in this market, which is bad if it is clearly falling.
"Uh, and besides the fact that this is bad, it's also worth paying attention to what level of leverage is in the system." And the answer to that now is: a lot. You can download the Meet Kevin app and you'll see some of this data and these graphs, but assets under management are now at all-time highs.
We're in a somewhat precarious position, especially now that our GDP estimates are, uh, now down to just 1.2% . This is partly due to recent surveys showing employment in manufacturing. Look at this. Sharpest drop in employment since May 2020 in US manufacturing. And they suggest that the only reason we're actually trying to get up here on the manufacturing PMI is because of inventory accumulation and companies trying to get ahead of the pricing pressures of the Iran war.
We'll see. But subscribe for more and I'll keep you posted. Why not publiciz me. Kevin. It's always great to hear your opinion.
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