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Katie says: “ Robotaxi is Elon’s gift to Tesla’s patient shareholders, a $10 trillion market that increases Tesla’s margins from 16% to 80%, and the company’s costs by 2030 will be half that of Waymo.” Secondly, tech analyst James Altucher calls treating Tesla as an automaker a mistake of the decade, as Optimus is targeting a $60 trillion job market.
We're going to show Katie Wood, she's been saying the same thing for a long time . We know she is the biggest bull about Tesla. But now we have publications like Edmunds and MotorTrend. And more and more TikTok videos and big YouTube channels are testing Tesla FSD, and they're responding very, very positively.
Moods. Um, let's look at Katie Wood and see what she says. The same thing she said before, but worded it a little differently about a gift for patient Tesla shareholders. Let's listen to this. Because I really think Elon wants to reward us, the patient shareholders , by launching a robotaxi. And now, as analysts are forced to look at this new world, they see Tesla's model changing from 16% gross margin on electric cars to, ultimately, robotaxi capabilities.
This is 80–90% of the gross margin. But it's still a very competitive market, right? Well, it seems so. Many companies are trying to enter it . We believe that this is a winner-take- all market, as the company will get passengers from point A to point B in the safest, fastest, and cheapest way possible.
And it is on the last point that Tesla will ultimately win. Will take the lion's share. It's a bit like Uber and Lyft. There is a network effect, and that's why we think Tesla will take the lion's share. So, if we are right, then globally, including China, revenue from autonomous taxis will grow to over 10 trillion over the next 5–10 years.
And now we're only talking about one billion dollars. And again , the lion's share will go to a few companies. Platform providers will receive most of the profits. Tesla is a platform provider. Waymo—also, but Tesla, because it's vertically integrated from a manufacturing perspective, we believe that by 2030 its costs will be 50% lower than Waymo's, given what we know now .
And so it will be able to pass on these lower costs to the price and provide a cheaper trip. What do you think, Joe? Did she say anything new that you had n't heard before? Actually, no. I mean, we all know this very well. I think there are two reasons why Waymo has no chance, in my opinion. And I've said this before.
Reason number one: I think their technology is worthless. The technology stack depends on lidars. It's not really just a cost issue, it's a technical issue, you know? This means that they have a tangled, not in the technical sense , but a complex neural network. You know, not convolutional, but rather entangled technology .
They seem to have two types of input data. This is very bad. And secondly, we know that they have to manually do all this, map cities, which is different from Tesla's approach to validation. So, the second reason is the price disadvantage, not only because of the lidars, but also because they are not OEMs.
We had an analyst meeting today to discuss this internally, and one of our new analysts modeled a $45,000 cost base at the scale of a million robotaxi. So I asked him, "Are you out of your mind ?" Like: " Why?" And he says, "Well, I studied Waymo." And I replied: "Yeah." He's actually right about Waymo.
Even for a million cars, they'll probably spend 40,000 on a car, because if it's not your car, you have to buy it from someone else, and they'll take the money from you , plus the cost of the lidars. Whereas Tesla can produce them, probably at a price of 15 to 20 thousand per car, if they produce a million a year.
So yes, there is a huge advantage in many ways. That's the problem. So, what do you think about her comment that Elon will reward Tesla shareholders for their patience? I don't know about positioning. I don't like this way of thinking. I think it's very emotional. Like, okay, Elon is probably nicer than many other CEOs and founders, but he's still a tough business mogul.
He is the richest man in the world. He doesn't think, "I wonder how I can avoid offending Herbert and Joe." It's like, no. He has other problems. He wants to win. And he will do anything to win, and he is not going to intentionally frame Tesla shareholders. But when it comes down to it, he will make sure that everything will be the way he wants.
That's how it is. And the merger of SpaceX and Tesla is much more important to him than to us. So it doesn't mean he wants to scam anyone. This means he wants to win, and if necessary, it must be done. I think that...I mean, if you don't think so, you're living in illusions. That's what I think. I think everything she says is right, and she's still looking 5-10 years ahead, you know, to 2030.
So yes, all of this will eventually catch up to you . My thesis now is that everything has been postponed, that's obvious. Let's put it off for a year. Tesla is rolling this out slower than almost everyone expected this year, but what they haven't stopped is all the production, all the, you know, prep work.
So, even though there's a one- year delay now, it'll probably be a year closer in 5 years. Things that were supposed to happen in 6 years will now happen in 5 years because everything is so prepared and all that. So we will end up where we planned. I think we are in an emotional valley or rock bottom right now .
I think people see everything in too dark tones now. I haven't changed much. I think I may have pushed back my 2030 predictions by six months, maybe nine, but not much more. We will have millions of robo-taxis. I'm almost sure of it. Okay, well, that's it. You just said that sentiment is at its lowest.
That's what we'll look at today, because it looks like the sentiment has changed. Um , the number of technical videos on TikTok about people discovering Tesla's FSD, publications that were previously quite negative about Tesla are changing their minds. Um, and just general comments. Here's one from James Altucher.
He is one of America's most popular technology analysts. He says of looking at Tesla: "If you view Tesla simply as an automaker, that would be the mistake of the decade." He says Elon Musk has quietly refocused the company on AI and robotics, pointing to a project called ARM, which is short for " autonomous revenue-generating machine." I do n't know where that came from.
Okay. He is referring to the humanoid robot Tesla Optimus. I don't know if it's true that Tesla has a project called ARM or if he made it up himself. According to Altucher, Tesla is reducing its focus on traditional car models to target $60 trillion. Yes, we know that. A commercial ecosystem built like Uber for manual labor.
Ordinary people buy an Optimus device for 20-30 thousand and rent it to a business looking for easy-to- manage operations. Because they can work two shifts without breaks. We already know all this. Each device can bring its owner 30,000 per year of passive income. Um, we already know all that. Okay.
So the real investment opportunity lies in Tesla's supply chain , in a little-known semiconductor company that produces the critical current sensor chips for Optimus' motorized joints. He notes that now is the time to invest in such things. But, yeah, I mean, it's great to see, right ? More and more guys like that.
Yes, and I think when I said the bottom of sentiment, I did n't mean the product. I'm not talking about cars. I'm talking about stocks. Because you are absolutely right. FSD and cars have completely different moods, quite the opposite. There are more people buying FSD than ever before. Tesla is demonstrating a rapid return to the top brands.
People love it. So that's all very well, but I'm not too concerned about it. I'm worried about stocks. I'm worried about robotaxi. I'm worried about Optimus. So, the question is for you, Joe: it's good if you see the mood changing. Chris Camillo is well known as the leading expert and perhaps the best investor in the world in what he calls social arbitrage.
And social arbitrage is when you very closely monitor what is happening in culture, for example, on social networks. There's a surge of activity and he's watching it very closely, you know, Google searches and things like that. And then he realizes that there is an untapped niche here, because he sees a wave of people eager to get this product.
It seems like this is where we are at right now with FSD, Model Y, cars, and Tesla in general. What is your view on this concept? As an investor. I mean, social arbitration is great, but by the way, that's not the only thing he does. I think it's just his brand, but he just made a huge bet on Amazon.
It's a long story. I think it was a risk. People really disagree on this. I'm not saying he didn't do some awesome research and wasn't highly confident in Amazon, but betting on long-term call options before an earnings report is a bit crazy. Who the hell knows what the market wants, right? So he made this huge bet on Amazon, which was not social arbitrage.
I think he's just a person with a very good sense of pricing and does very deep research, and he certainly has a very deep knowledge of Tesla, but he's not investing right now. He made a very big bet on Optimus and then took it back because he said it wasn't the right time. He is very sensitive to the choice of time.
Mhm. So I would definitely keep an eye on Chris. He's also very passionate about robots, investing, right? He knows everything behind the scenes, knows all these guys , visits Figure One, Apptronik, knows them all. He doesn't know what Tesla is doing. And he says that revolutionary things are happening in the field of robots .
And I think with Optimus it's a bit like a robotaxi. All of these arguments for why Tesla is so amazing are true, of course, but they only matter if Optimus works too. Well, of course they win in supply chains and all that. And of course, as I said , the Chinese are very strong, but they will be blocked from accessing the European and US markets with humanoid robots.
They just won't be allowed to be there , you know. So, Tesla will be unique, just like with robotaxi. Once it works, they'll rip everyone apart. The question is, when will it work? Time. And it's the same question regarding Optimus. OK.
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