저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
Dan Ives는 테슬라와 엔비디아를 '피지컬 AI'의 최강자로 보고, 테슬라의 규모·공급망·공격적 실행력을 근거로 강세를 유지한다. 현대차(보스턴다이나믹스)는 규모는 있지만 도전 정신이 부족하다고 평가하고, 세 요소를 모두 갖춘 곳은 없다고 본다. 윌리엄블레어 Jed Dorsheimer는 AI 데이터센터 수요로 테슬라 에너지 가치를 1,200억 달러로 추정했으나, 발언자들은 이를 과소평가로 보며 일론 머스크의 장기 계획(우주 태양광·AI 인프라) 관점에서 테슬라를 재평가해야 한다고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities in a recent interview continued with his call that Tesla and Nvidia are the undisputed physical AI Kings. William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer, he says Tesla Energy could be worth $120 billion because of the surge in AI data centers with 2,100 projects globally. Now, it's great that he sees this, but still very much underestimating the likely future.
This is Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities. He's one of the biggest Tesla bulls. He's always been saying Tesla's great. So, let's listen to what he's saying now, the latest. Autonomous and robotics is the future, but it speaks to my view of Tesla. I think Tesla and Nvidia are the two biggest physical AI players in the market.
Question on that. In regards to the robots, I've seen projections of in 10 years a billion robots being out there. Talking with some of the guys from different firms. How does Tesla maintain an edge with so many coming into the market? They're not going to launch first necessarily, right? We're already seeing some of these other robots coming out.
Then, was it the Neo one who had the video that went viral this week and a couple of others? So, what do you think is going to be that Optimus edge? To me, it's what it always is for It's going to be the scale and scope. No one's going to have their global scale. I like when I visit humanoid robot factories, I've been to a few in the US as well as in China.
So, how many I think my production it's pretty minimal. Tesla is going to own that game. Now, again, of course, like 10 years out, a lot of things could change, but I'm just saying the next few years. Autonomous as well as when it comes to robotics with Optimus, it's their game to lose. That's why Well, Tesla is all about that story.
Like, you're not playing it for like deliveries in Q4. You're playing it for like how quickly could they scale robotaxis? Cybertruck production, Optimus production, regulatory roadmap in terms of giving them more I would think favorable regulatory roadmap on the federal side. Thoughts on what he said?
First of all, Dan is getting cooler and cooler with his cap and the Uh [snorts] Dan is definitely owning the fashion piece. I can't compete. I won't even try. But, he's one of the best analysts. He totally nailed it. And I think it's not just scale and scope for Tesla. I think the competition is serious.
We have to watch them all. I think Hyundai is serious, for example. They have massive scale. Uh but, the thing is in the end, you're not winning with through one thing. There is very strong technological competition in China, for example, and Korea, and Boston Dynamics now under Hyundai. There are people with enormous scale, enormous supply chain capabilities like Hyundai.
But, it comes down It's like with the rockets. You have to pull it all together. You have to make it work. And Hyundai definitely is completely lacking that aggressive entrepreneurial pioneer style that Elon has. They're They're all tool bureaucrats, effective, but bureaucrats are not taking risks. The little startups that have the pioneering spirit, they are totally missing the scale and the supply chains.
I still wouldn't underestimate the Chinese, but I think when it comes to deep tech, there's also no one that can compete with Tesla. And we shouldn't forget there is deep tech at play. To the idea to create a conscious This thing needs to be half conscious to be effective. Like, conscious AI in a robot is also non-trivial.
This doesn't exist right now. You need to invent that. You need to figure it all out. This is like a frontier problem. And so, frontier technology in AI combined with massive supply chain capabilities, combined with pioneering aggression for winning, who has it all three? No one. Hyundai has the scale.
Some Chinese might have the pioneer power. Frontier capabilities, I don't even know. Maybe OpenAI and the figure or something. But, all three, I don't even see anyone remotely close. Of course, it's a big It's a big bet on Elon again from us. And when you go to China and see what they're doing with the robots, of course, it's whoa, it's pretty insane.
But, that's also not deep intelligence. And these things will need deep intelligence. So, I remain extremely bullish. And I think again, it's like FSD, people underestimate the enormous iceberg these things sit on. Like, the enormous complexity of making this work. And most of that is intelligence, which is invisible to most people.
You need massive data centers. You need massive dedicated compute. You need massive data and you need massive know-how. For example, how do you convert these videos? We had this conversation, right? I think Tesla is actually working very actively with Grok on the ability to take YouTube videos and turn it into first-person perspective, which is one of the central breakthroughs for training.
Who can even do that at scale? Like, right now, no one can do it, but who's closest to being able to do it and who even understands that it needs to be done? So again, you need This is not one idea you need. You need like thousands and thousands of kind of breakthrough ideas and implement them all to get there.
And I think Elon has the best track record for doing that. You did a great job. Great articulated way did you explain that. So, yeah. Tesla has the most factories manufacturing at scale, and they have the biggest supercomputers. Cortex 2, Elon said, is about to go live, half of it, next month. This is the second supercomputer for Tesla that is going to be focused on humanoid bot.
So, this will be They're already laun basically, their supercomputer is already about to go live dedicated to Optimus. Now, you got to watch other players. Where is their supercomputer? Where is Boston Dynamics Hyundai's supercomputer? They might rely on Nvidia, but Nvidia is more of the tools, not the supercomputers.
We'll see how that plays out. And again, I don't know I don't know what what is happening, why it's always Elon winning like crazy. I know why he's winning, but how he put it all off like this. Cuz when you look at the details, his ability to actually build stuff is also extremely underrated in the AI race.
Look at OpenAI and Oracle pulling out of Stargate because they can't deliver They can't build it fast enough. Because they're building it now for a year, and Elon builds these things in 2 months. And this is all This is not cool tech or anything. It's just ability. They're having the same data center, but one does it in 2 months and the other in 2 years.
That makes a difference, and no one has that on their radar. They think, "Oh, it's all like models and this and that." No, it's all of the above. And the ability to execute fast is of absolute crucial importance. And that is one of these skills that just no one has, and that is another insane advantage.
That's interesting. Okay, let's talk about Tesla Energy. Here's William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer. So, he did his research, and now he says Tesla Energy could be worth $120 billion because of the surge in AI data centers with 2,100 plus projects globally. 174 gigawatt capacity could boost demand for grid storage like Tesla's Megapack.
He estimates Tesla's energy segment alone could be worth $31 per share, which is crazy low. So, he says that valuation supported by his tracking database, which now lists 2,100, an 8% increase from previous month. A total pipeline capacity of 174 gigawatts. As AI infrastructure continues to expand, electricity demand is expected to surge.
Dorsheimer emphasized that Tesla's Megapack battery systems are uniquely positioned to help utilities manage these power up spikes, provide critical backup energy for large-scale facilities. So, nothing new for us retail investors who follow this closely, but it's great to see these William Blair actually recognizing him, although still quite low in terms of what he's expecting.
What's fascinating to me is that of course, William Blair, for example, they look at Tesla like they look at GE or Siemens, like these big conglomerates. And they slice it and see, "Oh, what about the Megapack business? What about the solar business? What about this business, that business, business?" And then they add it all up and think the sum is the total is the sum of the parts.
But, what they don't understand or don't factor in is most of that stuff isn't even for sale in the future. Elon doesn't even want to sell Megapacks anymore. he needs it all. Because he's building some insane thing first on Earth and then a Dyson swarm. And these are all now components that go into that mega plan.
And the mega plan is AI and physical AI. And so, that's very funny. It's a very different perspective. It's on a very trivial level. It's like a company that basically does cotton and does dyes and all kinds of stuff. And then people analyze it, but their secret plan is to become a t-shirt company. And then actually sell the t-shirts.
And only on a different level. And so, it's not really about the pieces. It's about what is the plan. And the plan is to replace all human physical labor, take over global transportation completely, and then go to space. These are big TAMs. Hundreds of trillions in TAMs. You just said something I think that's incredibly important.
That's a really good insight, Joe. The The reason why Elon is making these massive goals. Like, he said, "Hey, both SpaceX and Tesla is going to go and have We're going to create solar, 100 gigawatts of solar production each Why? It's not because he's going the market's going to be massive. I'm going to make money selling it to those guys.
No. It's I need that much. I need that much. Tesla needs it. XAI needs it. SpaceX needs it. We're going to be able to building AI data centers in space. And so a very important point because it's like you can make a certain amount of money selling it, which is what they're doing with Megapack. And that's what he the guy did.
He took the Megapack business and said, "Okay, if you sold it to all these AI data centers which they might do, right? But the solar, that's the same thing. The same mistake.
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