저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
미 증시 반등 마감: 나스닥 1.3%, 다우 0.3%. 이란 추가 공습에도 전면전 가능성은 낮다는 인식, 유가 하락. 30년물 수요 강세. 미 주간 실업수당 청구 21.5만 건(예상 21.8만 건 하회). SK하이닉스 나스닥 ADR 상장 임박(공모가 149달러, 총 265억 달러 규모 예상). 마이크론 미국 투자 확대(2500억 달러 규모)·UBS 메모리 전망 상향으로 반도체 강세. 메타 자체 AI칩 IRIS 양산 소식(브로드컴 파트너)으로 브로드컴 3.2% 상승, 엔비디아 0.6% 하락. 테슬라 UBS 목표가 442달러 상향.
다듬은 글
We will now move on to the closing kick. Here is a summary of the US stock market closing situation . The three major indices all showed a rebound. In fact, even up until the start, there was some lingering concern or caution, as the market briefly shifted to a mixed trend. In the end, the Nasdaq broke through the 26,200 level by gradually gaining more momentum, reaching 1.3% right up until the close of trading, while the Dow Jones Index's gains were limited to around 0.3% as defensive stocks showed relative weakness today .
Even at the beginning of the trading session, oil prices were actually rising as news spread that the U.S. military had launched additional airstrikes on about 90 targets in Iran. However, the perception that the possibility of an all-out war is still low. President Trump said the previous day that he did not want an all-out war.
You gave off that kind of nuance. At the same time, international oil prices also reversed course and plummeted again. Both WTI and Brent closed down more than 2% on a futures basis . In addition, strong demand emerged in the 30-year government bond auction held today. Yeonju is currently expressing a strong determination to curb inflation .
So, the expectation that inflation will stabilize in the long term drives up demand for long-term government bonds . Attempts are being made for the 10-year bond yield to stabilize at 4.5% . Shall we take a look at the major headlines? First, the U.S. Central Command announced that it had completed additional airstrikes against Iran the previous day .
President Trump also stated that Iran had limited negotiations . Ultimately, the market is expecting that both countries will return to the negotiating table regardless . So, there is an expectation that the likelihood of it leading to a full lockdown or an all-out war is low . In addition, countries acting as diplomatic mediators are operating mediation channels .
The fact that such news was delivered also decisively eased market anxiety . Ultimately, the key will be how quickly this dispute ends; Wells Fargo Investment Research maintains the view that while volatility may increase in the short term, the index will eventually reach its target of 7,800 to 8,000 points by the end of the year.
And they are saying that the foundation for this will be the steady growth of stock returns and the continued strength of AI . Shall we take a look at City's comments as well? Ultimately, it is highly likely that both countries will propose negotiations on a weekly basis . Based on this assessment, it is pointing out that neither country will gain any benefit from an escalation to the point of destroying the Middle East's energy infrastructure.
In particular, President Trump is a president who pays more attention to the stock and bond markets than anyone else . Since he is concerned about the stability of the stock market, there are predictions that he will return to negotiations relatively soon . Shall we take a look at the indicators released today as well ?
The number of weekly new unemployment claims in the U.S., which we report every Friday, is 215,000. It has decreased by about 2,000 copies compared to last week . Furthermore, it fell short of the expected figure of 218,000 copies . So, this suggests that the labor market is maintaining a relatively stable state .
Now, this is SK Hynix, with just one day left until its NASDAQ ADR listing . The attention of the entire world is truly focused on this. Although SK Hynix is the second-largest company by market capitalization in Korea and is very familiar to us, major foreign media outlets are publishing a great number of articles introducing the company's overview and putting it on the front page for global investors who may not be familiar with it, ahead of its listing .
As you are well aware, the demand for memory has increased explosively due to the AI craze, and SK Hynix is the company that boasts the highest technological capabilities, having been the first to successfully commercialize HBM, a high-performance memory. It is referred to as the previous generation of memory, RAM .
While RAM took the form of simple memory that stores data, HBM is characterized by stacking this memory vertically to provide much higher performance . Industry forecasts suggest that SK Hynix's HPM market share will exceed 50% this year . The reason Jens and the NVIDIA CEO personally traveled to Korea to sign a contract with SK Hynix was precisely because Hynix's products and technological capabilities were so important .
You could look at it this way, too . Let's look at the overview of the listing. The ticker symbol is SK Hi. For the first day, the transaction is conducted with a chair attached at the end. Starting next Monday, the 13th, you can find it under the ticker name SK Hi. It is said that Gong Jok-ga made an offer of $149 per share .
This is about 3.1% higher than our stock market closing price yesterday. So, this shows Hynix's determination to be assigned a high corporate value . If confirmed as is, the total fundraising amount is expected to reach $26.5 billion. This would be larger than the $25 billion raised by Alibaba in 2014 .
It is also worth noting that this is the largest U.S. IPO by a foreign company, and the third largest in history when considering all global IPOs . According to a previous Bloomberg report, there was too much demand for this offering . It is said that subscription demand was more than seven times greater than the offering volume .
Therefore, I also think that there might not be any major issues with the success of the public offering . Now, let's look at the Micron issue. Ah, in the midst of that, they will become competitors now. Micro has announced that it will increase its investment in the U.S. to meet memory demand . Previously, $200 million was mentioned, but now the amount is being increased by about $50 billion to $250 billion.
This increase of $50 billion is planned to be invested in constructing state-of-the-art memory production facilities located in New York, Idahu, Virginia, and other areas, as well as expanding capacity. This expansion of investment could be seen as news that once again confirms just how much demand there is for high-performance memory and how much of a supply shortage there is right now.
Not long ago, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also announced that they would invest a total of $880 billion over the next few years to expand production capacity . Therefore, the investment competition among memory companies is also accelerating. Micron's stock price even surged by more than 9% at one point during the trading session as it digested this news .
At the same time, it broke the all-time high record last night . On a year-to-date basis, the return is approaching 250% . Above all, the news that reignited expectations for overall AI infrastructure investment today was precisely this. We can check this point . And the fact that UBS released an optimistic outlook for memory also stimulated investor sentiment.
I released a monthly report stating that global memory sales in July hit a new record high of $74.6 billion . It is said that this represents a 32% surge in growth rate compared to the previous month . Based on DRAM, a 28% surge. And Rand is recording high growth of 41% . And by exceeding the 10-year average seasonality by 2.8 percentage points, we can see that there is particularly higher demand coming in right now.
This is a comment from UBS. This month's data shows that the memory market is becoming even stronger as AI demand accelerates and long-term supply contracts are underway. Accordingly, UBS. We have raised our forecasts for memory prices for this year and next year . Structural supply shortages will continue at least until the second quarter of 2028 .
They are making such predictions. With the release of this report, call options on semiconductors have surged, and furthermore, volumes of short covering have also flowed in regarding the short bets. At the same time, we were even able to confirm that the prices of semiconductor stocks accelerated even further during the trading session .
Shall we also check the fluctuations by industry ? So, as a result, the strongest buying pressure came into the technology sector today, leading a 1.7% rebound, and consumer goods have already risen by nearly 1.4% . The materials sector, which had been weak due to the recent sluggishness of gold prices, recorded a positive movement of nearly 1.3% today as gold prices rebounded .
As I mentioned, the defensive sector showed weakness by 1.3% as various defensive stocks, including companies selling essential consumer goods, were performing poorly . Then, let's check the prices of the ETFs . Ah, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index really did waver a lot recently due to the influx of various negative factors .
There was an issue regarding Meta's computing being overcapacitated, and even though Micron's earnings announcement in June was excellent, this news actually triggered a selling movement . Meanwhile, during that period, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded a drop of over 8%. However, attempts are now emerging to shake off these things and rebound .
Reuters held a conference today, and executives at these companies will continue to strongly continue spending on AI infrastructure . The fact that such a comment was made also had a positive effect. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index attempted a recovery to the mid-3% range, quelling concerns about a recent investment peak-out.
Meanwhile, the Sweepstakes ETF recorded a sharp rebound of 10% . EWY, which invests in our stock market, and EWT, which invests in Taiwan, also rebounded by over 1%. Aside from that, XLK and Tackle, which allow investment in the technology sector, are showing green lights . Moving on to the stock prices .
Micro recorded a 4.5% surge as it absorbed the issue of expanding investment in the U.S., coupled with UBS's optimistic memory outlook . Of course, it is regrettable that the momentum slowed compared to the intraday, but it still finished today breaking the 4-second mark. In the case of SanDisk, it was selected as the primary flash storage provider for Meta's GEO AI infrastructure construction .
This has not been confirmed yet, and such internal documents have been leaked. And the stock price moved a bit . It closed trading with a sharp rise of 7.6% to 6% . In that case, I think it would be important to know what kind of issues there were in the meta . As several semiconductor stocks moved today following the news from Meta, we will mass-produce our own AI chip, IRIS, in cooperation with TSMC and Broadcom starting in September.
And next year, computing power will be doubled. There was news like this. And they unveiled MuseSpark 1.1, a developer model featuring an unconventional token pricing policy . This news has also been released. It was news that fueled expectations for continued investment in AI infrastructure . As a result, Meta's stock price surged 4.7% today, surpassing the $630 mark, and not only that, it also boosted investor sentiment toward Broadcom.
News is coming in that Broadcom is the company acting as the design partner for the full-scale mass production of the next-generation AI chip, Iris, which is set to begin in September. At the same time, the stock price surged 3.2%. Conversely, since this could be slightly unfavorable news for NBD, it is a 0.6% minus.
Actually, recently the stock price has risen to near its Phase 4 peak, and uh, it surged just yesterday, did n't it? At the same time, it is also true that some selling pressure emerged to realize profits. It appears that concerns such as the possibility of reduced long-term dependence on NBDI if Meta develops its own AI output chip were also reflected.
Now moving on to CPUs, AMD has also risen significantly, by nearly 5.7% . William Blair's side mentioned strong growth prospects. However, there is a risk associated with intensifying competition in the CPU market. You should also take these comments into account . And chip companies, which had been falling along with the recent weakening of semiconductor investor sentiment, showed an attempt at recovery today.
They had been subject to a correction due to concerns over delays in data center investment, but the rebound is occurring because Micron announced that it will increase investment . With Lam Research showing a recovery trend in the 6% range, Applied and K in the 3% range , and Dell Technologies outperforming within the hardware sector in the 4% range , the enterprise server replacement cycle is set to begin in earnest amidst continuing expectations for increased demand for AI servers.
Such forecasts have been received. Shall we take a look at Tesla as well? It was a 3.2% rebound. UBS has raised its target price from the baseline of $364 to $442, based on the long-term value appreciation of businesses related to AI and robotics. While digesting that issue, the market was on an upward trend, and within the software sector, Oracle's stock price also surged by over 2%, just as OpenAI announced GPT version 5.6 .
They say that the performance has been significantly improved compared to the previous version. As a result, investment sentiment from Oracle, a major partner of OpenAI, revived. We can evaluate it like this. And several cyber complement stocks also showed a noticeable rebound today. Stocks such as Palo R2 Networks, CloudStrike Holdings, and Fortinet surged by around 4%, and in some cases, as much as in the mid-5% range .
This is driven by the sentiment that as AI data centers expand, investment in security will also increase. And although it's not on the map, SpaceX was recently added to the Nasdaq Blank Index . Today, it recorded a 2.6% gain, benefiting from the inflow of passive funds . Finally, let's take a look at Costco.
The stock price fell by the 4% range . Net sales in June actually increased by 10% compared to the previous year . However, because gasoline prices have risen so much, there is an optical illusion resulting from it. Aside from that, the stock price fell significantly amid assessments that actual growth had slowed. It was a closing kick.
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