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Today is not a good day to be a prognosticator. It is wild and crazy. So, put on your seat belt, I guess, as you head to Austin, maybe. I am confused. You see, the invitations are going out for the robo taxi rides on this Sunday. Um, and Tesla is down. Three bucks, but down. Well, the whole market went down.
Tesla was up a little early on, but the market then went south. You see, um well, it is triple witching Friday. Uh I mentioned this last night that triple witching Friday has almost never occurred after a holiday. Um and that is so today is that day. Also, it's the record a record number of options are expiring today.
So, it is probably creating some additional confusion out there. In addition to all of that, you've got the Israeli situation, which if if I was going to be really really honest and not put my thumb on the scale at all right now, uh, you know, up until up until yesterday, I would say Israel was dominating and and I I didn't give Iran a chance to uh at all to be anything remotely like able to defend itself.
But yet today, I would call things a little a little more even. Um, so, uh, you know, you've got that going on. You've got a couple of, uh, reports. We'll we'll talk about these reports later, econ economic reports that were a little soft, but not that soft. Anyway, I'm having a hard time making sense of the valuation of Tesla today.
You see, um, four months ago, Tesla was worth 35% more than it is right now based on a hope and a promise and a maybe that the new com the new administration, the Trump administration would be kinder with regard to regulations and that they might, you know, set up a situation where there would be robo taxi rules that would be nationwide.
Now, those that hasn't changed. In fact, if anything, that's closer to reality. They've already made a number of pronouncements with regard to the fact that we're probably going to see changes that are going to be good for Tesla. Now, I I'll admit that there's things that are negative with regard to Tesla that have happened in that four months uh with regard to regulation, other regulations and other kinds of tax incentives and whatnot and also with regard to uh Tesla sales, you know, actual vehicle sales and all those things would be weighing on the stock.
But 35% So, I have to admit to being a little confused that this uh largest ever in the history of the world product introduction which is happening this Sunday, there's never been anything remotely close in terms of the uh probable likely uh income net in both both gross and net uh ever in the history of the world much greater than Nvidia.
Um anyway, that promise appears to be on track right now and yet the company is worth as I mentioned 35% less. So will that gap um be filled sometime during the next couple of weeks as the launch goes out well? If things go well over the next couple of weeks and they add to the numbers and they add to the territory and they don't have any issues, will the gap start to be filled?
Will I start to be will I start to get anywhere close to my 488 which I've promised you at the worst case worst case worst case two weeks after the actual launch. Um it it's yet to be seen. Well, Gary Black Well, I'm sorry. I I had uh I thought I had um uh what happened here? Uh yeah, that's good. Um oh, here we go.
Dan Eyes says, "The golden arc of autonomous for Tesla officially kicks off in Sunday. We view this autonomous chapter as one of the most important for Musk and Tesla as we believe the AI future at Tesla is worth 1 trillion to the valuation alone over the next few years and that does not include Optimus." Speaks to our bullishness, says Dan Ives.
Gary Black calls the roll out an asymmetric risk to the downside. H Gary Black goes on to say, "This weekend's Austin Robboex launchy robo taxi launch still seems more show than actual launch. We believe it will be a sell the news event consistent with other highly anticipated Tesla events. I I can understand a Tesla event being a sell the sell the news event if the stock wasn't already down 35% from its high.
We're concerned that more affordable vehicle launch targeted for a third quarter will be consistent will they're concerned that it'll be consist of a lower priced lowerc cost Model 3 and Model Y trims that are not new form factors that bothers them and they finally believe that Tesla second quarter volumes will be down.
Okay, so here are some of the things that we know about this launch this weekend. First of all, Tesla sends out the parameters of use. You must read through and agree to the attached terms of service, writer rules, robo taxi rider privacy notice, and service animal polic service animal policy. You must have a credit debit card on file.
You must request a ride in the app to or from anywhere in the geoenced area, including any airports only between 6:00 a.m. and 12:00 p.m. midnight every day of the week. These operational hours are subject to change. A map of the geopenced area is available in the app. Note that service may be limited or unavailable in the event of inclement weather.
Only the invite may download. Only the inviteee may download and use the robo taxi app to hail a roboaxi ride. Uh later on they're going to say that you can invite a friend to come along. Please be courteous um and treat the service with respect. Your participation in this early access program may be terminated for various reasons including violating these parameters or engaging in unsafe or uh disrespect disrespectful behavior.
Provide a star rating and feedback from your experience in the app. Photos and video of the experience are okay and they look forward to your feedback. Musconomy says this morning that Tesla robo early access rules included um must uh gosh I think he just gave a variation of that. Then there's a privacy a privacy statement.
Privacy comes standard. Cabin camera and microphone are off by default unless needed until you're running whether you're running errands, taking a call or watching a movie. Roboaxi is designed to protect your privacy. Cabin Cabin camera during an active ride. Cabin camera is not used unless you initiate a request for support or operator assistance is required in case of an emergency.
A green indicator is displayed on the rear touchscreen menu bar when cabin camera is active. If you choose to if you choose to riders can opt in and share cabin camera analytic with Tesla to help improve the robo taxi services um to protect your privacy. Even if you opt into sharing this information, this camera data is now is not linked to your account.
You may change this setting at any time. If a robo taxi safety driver is present in the vehicle cabin camera is often used by autopilot to detect in effect um inattentiveness after the ride if the I'm sorry, let me read that again. If a robo taxi safety driver is present. Oh, if it's present. Robo taxi ready.
Uh your so then sound detection. Your conversations are private. Sound detection uses the microphone to transpate audio only when you initiate a request to speak to support or when necessary to provide help in case of a safety event. An orange indicator is displayed on the touchcreen menu bar when the microphone is being used.
Sound detection also allows robo taxi to automatically detect and appropriately react to the road environment such as nearby siren and yielding to approaching emergency vehicles. When a safety event is deta is detected, the media volume inside the cabinet is lowered and the writer is notified in the center touchcreen.
Safety events around detection to proceed locally on vehicle is not associated with your Tesla account. Tesla. Even in the occurrence of safety critical event, unless you choose to opt in, this information will not be kept. You can opt in and share sound detection data with Tesla. Again, like this, like the visual uh situation.
Okay, there you go. It's all set up. It's ready to go. We'll take a check in a minute to see if Tesla is still down or maybe moving up, but it doesn't appear we're going to see FOMO today. But you never can tell on a day when you have triple witching hours at this triple witching at these levels. Anyway, Tesla archive says this.
Breaking new Tesla prototype spotted at Fremont factory. Disguise compact Tesla seen aggressively testing its suspension on 619. It looks like a short shorter Model Y or a more affordable version. Okay, whatever that means. That's very, very limited amount of information, but archive has been fairly consistent in giving good information.
Sawyer Merritt says this morning, Tesla Shanghai signs a $557 million energy storage station deal. Tesla's first China grid scale battery storage station using its megapac batteries will be located in Shanghai. The deal involving an investment of 557 million over half a billion dollars on their first order.
I'd like to had that first order. Twitter merit also says Elon Musk's company, the X AI RX or whatever it's called now, is about to bring online another 110,000 Nvidia GB200 GPUs in Memphis, Tennessee, bringing its total GPU count for a XAI trading for I'm sorry, AI training to 340,000 GPUs. By far the largest supercomputer in the world.
Um, yeah. Okay, this is Randy Kirk. Please hit like. I mean, actually, do it. Hit like. It just takes a second. I'll wait. Hit subscribe and notify. I'm assuming I'm guessing. I think it's going to be Larry Goldberg later today and then Brian Wong later after that, but it could change. Everything's subject to change after that announcement.
The Philadelphia Fed is announcing this morning that manufacturing activity in the region remained weak according to the firms responding to the June manufacturing business outlook survey. The survey's indication for current general activity remains slightly negative unchanged from May. The new orders index fell but it's still positive and the shipments index improved turning positive.
Both readings remain below their non-recession averages. the employment they're non-recession averages. The the employment index turned negative and fell to its lowest value since May of 2020. Both price indices moderated but re but remained elevated. The surveys future indicators suggested less widespread expectations for growth over the next six months.
Okay, so let me see if I can rehash that. Prices are still up a little bit but not as much as they were. Employment is down a little bit. unemployment uh opportunities. The current situation is not bad but the future is a little soft. The so then the conference board weighs in which nobody pays any attention to anymore.
The conference board indication uh in economic indicator for the US ticked down by.1% in May to 99 where 2016 was 100 after declining by 1.4 in April downward from a 1% report. That's even more than the 1%. So it's revised to 1.4 in April, down from the 1% earlier. The LEI leading indicators has fallen by 2.7 in the six-month period ending May.
A much faster rate of decline than the 1.4 contraction over the previous six months. The leading indicators for the US fell again in May, but only marginally, says Justanna Zabinska Lam Monica, senior manager business cycle indicators at the conference board. The recovery of the stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor of the index.
However, consumer pessimism, again, we've talked about the consumer pessimism, which I give no credit to credence to at all anymore, and other people are beginning to agree with me. I started talking about it months and months ago. Persistently weak new orders in manufacturing are a problem. A second consecutive months of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance.
We saw that. And a decline in housing permits weighs on the index. Those would all be very true. With the substantially negative revised drop in April and a further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the index has become more negative, triggering a recession signal. The conference board does not anticipate recession, but we do suspect expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024 with the real GDP growing at 1.6% 6% this year and with p persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026.
The conference board's coincident economic index for the US inched up by.1% in May to 115.1 after a2% increase in April. The CI rose by 1.3 over the six% six months last month. Okay. So what they're saying is is that the actual numbers are showing increase but the re respondents to their survey not so much.
Anyway, as mentioned, nobody pays any attention to this report anymore anyway, but overall I would say it's showing flat. Um, okay. Uh, we have got uh Tesla now down 2.43 uh dollars. Let's change all this to percents. The Tesla is down.76. It was up. It has been down more than that and is now trending upward again.
That is true of all of the markets. So the Dow is now is now up.19% after being up more and almost down to zero and now picking back up again. NASDAQ which was green early went negative and now is heading up is at 0.58 negative. S&P po similar is now.16 negative. I would say that all indices look like they're going to go back to the green in a very short minute.
We've got the magnificent seven all down at this point. 1% 1% 2%. Apple is the only one in the green barely at 37% up. The Kathy Woods are completely mixed. Um and uh but with some big numbers. I PayPal up 2%, Block up 1.47%. Interesting that uh PayPal and Block are both up in face of what I didn't report which is that Tes is that X has been promoting and promoting even more their new money system, which must be getting close to actually breaking.
All right, let's see. Let's go over to look at the bonds which are up only 8/10en of a percent right now after being up much more earlier today. So we're at 4.4 uh almost exactly. We have oil up 12 cents but Brent dropping $2 putting them very close together. 7526 for Texas Intermediate 76.83 for Brent.
Natural gas down 65% falling back below $4 after going up above $4 last night. Uh very close $3.96 right now. Gold is dropping 21 under 3,400 at 33.87. Silver dropping 2.61% down under 36 back down to 35.95. And copper is down 63% under $5. I'm not sure. I don't think I don't think copper got to $5.
Sitting at $482. We've got the dollar down uh even though it's setting it said the headline says it's preparing for a weekly rise, but it's down right now. Um and uh Bitcoin is basically flat at 104260. And there you go. That is uh by the way, Fed Governor Waller said last yesterday that the central bank could cut rates as early as July.
So there's one of the be the bank Fed presidents or governor. He's a governor, not a president. What is the difference? Does anybody know why some are called governors and some are called presidents? Anyway, there you go. Um, so let's let's the as as mentioned, I'm not sure you're going to be able to get a good reading today for the markets on anything fundamental because of all those options that are expiring.
Um, so good luck with that. I'm I'm not sure we're going to get anything really clear from Tesla either, although it's confusing. It's very very to me it doesn't make sense. What will make sense is if the the launch goes well on Sunday and we go into a normal week next week and all of a sudden Tesla starts moving upward 2 3% per day every day that nothing negative significantly negative happens.
That would make sense to me. Um heading towards the all-time high right now. Call me confused. Let me know in the comments below if you are similarly confused. Um, hey, listen. I've been wrong before. Ask Yeah, ask. You know who to ask. Ask my kids. Ask my wife. You know, I have been wrong before. Anyway, um, later on today, Larry Goldberg, I think.
Later on today, Brian Wong, I think. But who knows? All these people might be in airplanes right now headed to Austin. So, everything is subject to change. I am not headed to Austin. Um, I'm waiting for something. Uh, I'm waiting. I don't I don't know what I'm waiting for, but I'm not headed to Austin.
All right, that's all I got for you right now. Oh, one more. You want me to check? You want me to check uh Tesla just real quick? Okay, let me see here. Uh real quick, we've got Tesla still down 43. Still headed toward the green. There you are at the end of the story. It's been great talking to
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