저자: RandyKirk · 외국인
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테슬라 광고 시작(일본 X 광고), 수퍼차저·FSD 양도 정책 언급. EV 대형주 연초 대비 20~45% 하락, 미디어의 EV 공격과 성장 기대 미스가 원인이라는 Jeff Lutz 견해 소개. 벤 쿠(Ben Kallo) 분석가는 장기 강세·단기 난관 입장, 목표가 $300 유지. 델라웨어 법원의 머스크 보상안 판결과 홍해 물류 차질로 1분기 인도량 리스크 언급. 다음 주 전망 쇼 홍보 중심.
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well after spending all day ranting about Tesla not advertising it turns out that according to Sawyer Merit Tesla has officially started advertising on X in Japan now just a few weeks ago I had recommended that and even suggested that I thought the shareholders of Tesla would be perfectly happy if if Elon used X as a method of advertising I am hoping that it spreads from Japan to the unit States and Canada and Europe and everywhere else because we need the advertising anyway um on the earnings call Elon Musk stated that the company's market share is low in Japan that's true extremely low and there's quite a lot of brand aware a lack of brand awareness of Tesla in country and Japan has the second most X users of any country well okay all that's great I'm just guessing that the country that has the most is the United States I'm guessing that the brand aware awareness of Tesla and the brand awareness of some of the issues regarding Tesla is very low throughout the United States and it's the number one auto market in the world but anyway um that's you know hopefully that's still to come so uh also breaking from now until the end of quarter 1 Tesla will allow those with lifetime supercharger to transfer it to their new vehicle if they buy a new vehicle anyway um FSD is a question mark it appeared that maybe FSD was also going to be okay for the rest of this quarter on new purchases to be able to transfer FSD but now there seems to be question whether that's true or not it should be permanent it should always be that way Tesla come on that really makes so much sense um or at least one transfer in your lifetime moving it along to the next vehicle in particular because I've had uh FSD now for three years we use it from time to time and we did get it at a very good price I think around 7,000 but um you know we didn't really have the whole deal so if we were to get our cyber truck now we don't want to have to pay for it again we'd like to be able to transfer it to the Cyber truck all right this is Randy Kirk please hit like subscribe notify and you know the reason you want to hit notify is because tomorrow night is usually the best show of the week and when I say best I mean the one that gets the most views all week long and that's what I call Monday morning and on that show we go for all of the events all the things that are coming up in the financial world in the coming week and it's not going to be as big a week as last week no week is maybe ever going to be as big as last week but there's a lot of stuff coming next week we also talk about things that are happening in the world of Tesla uh the news as well as things that are coming up in the future week uh that might impact Tesla specifically all right then you want to buy some cyber truck water uh bottle openers and uh and uh refrigerator magnets all that information is in the description below as well as join patreon I'll certainly appreciate that if you would do that for me all right we have the Jeff Lutz our co-host on the Wednesday night program and Jeff says every EV major stock Tesla byd uh Li rivan Neo uh x x xang I guess that is uh Lucid are down between 20 and 45% year-to date one trading month what in one trading month while the NASDAQ of course is up 5% so in his opinion the media Onslaught against EVS is the primary driver followed by small expect expectation misses off of a very high growth for Tesla boid yet the media makes it sound like literally nobody's buying them at all Eevee adoptions secular growth is still faster than any other product category shipping outside of of uh AI uh and the reality is the costs are coming down rapidly and the Tesla net promoter score are off the charts High people like their Teslas buy them again and tell their friends too he says Tesla makes most of the dollars in this space with a tremendous cash position and they're reinvesting for a an AI saas driven future for auto and Beyond where they monetize the stack from Network infrastructure down to the individual consumer no one company is doing that or has the capability so you know uh this is everything you just said is true there's what can I say I can't add anything to that but it is interesting that the media who is supposed to be all about anything that's going to help uh deal with the CO2 problem uh the media is just destroying the trying their best to destroy the EV business any time they can they're just you know I don't know I don't understand it I just well I do because you know they get a lot of money from the ice companies yeah there you go all right hey from tip ranks they have this Tesla is a polarizing name and regularly elicits strong opinions I agree end that article oh no okay some are firmly planted in the bull Camp While others are staunch bears but can you be in both camps at the same time well according to beard analyst Ben Koo that's possible he says he is an analyst on he's a is bullish on Tesla's long-term prospects but thinks the near-term landscape will be more difficult to navigate as such Kell has made a Tesla's a a bearish fresh pick that Accolade has been granted following the recent news that the Delaware judge said CEO Elon musk's 56 billion Tesla pay package is too much to stomach you realize of course it wasn't a $56 billion pay package it was a contingent pay package that was worth about5 billion at the time and went to 56 billion while the rest of Tesla stock holders all gained 10 times their Holdings at the during that time anyway the ruling came in response to a shareholder lawsuit regarding a pay package set by the board in 2018 the judge's conclusion was that Tesla and musk were unable to demonstrate the fairness of the compensation package indicating the company will need to devise a new compensation PL plann for musk of course the judge also wasn't able to come up with what was fair why why is she a judge isn't that her job anyway Kyo expects must to appeal against the decision but in the meantime it spells bad news for the stock bad news for the stock we believe he says that this will create a negative over overhang on the stock until additional Clarity is given the analyst said I'm not sure of that I'm not clear as to why that would make any overhang elon's not going anywhere don't believe for one second that this will will impact his decision to be fully engaged at Tesla I know that goes that goes to what the judge said that he didn't need the compensation in order to be excited and thrilled and working hard on Tesla it's Norm natural and reasonable to be more more if anything you're going to be slightly more incentivized in a situation like that but when you're already worth 50 60 anyway this is not the only problem however given the ongoing war between Israel and the ter organization Hamas along with subsequent attacks on ships on the Red Sea quarter 1's delivery numbers are at risk a recent twoe production shutdown at gular Berlin resulted from disruptions to steep Red Sea shipping routes this is likely to lead to a sequential design and deliveries jeopardizing the streets forecast of approximately 494 th000 deliveries in quarter 1 compared to uh fourth quarter 23 is approximately 4854 so um they're thinking that this might mean that there won't deliver quite as many cars in Europe um they did an extra at least a th000 if not 2,000 last week um and they're only doing about five four to 5,000 a week so uh it's might maybe impact by five or 6,000 um so you know yes it could or maybe they'll come back to work and they'll start doing 6,000 a week pretty regularly until they catch up depending on what the demand is right now in Europe nevertheless the current problems have't dampened kow kow I think it's kow's General enthusiasm despite these challenges which we view as near term we continue to view Tesla as a core holding and one of our favorite names in the longer term he summed up bottom line K maintained an outperform by rating on the shares backed by a $300 price Target the implication for investors upside of 60% from current levels and then a recommendation on how to find this guy Elsewhere on the street the stock claims an additional 11 buys 16 holds and six cells for a hold consensus rating however going by the $22.98 average price a year from now shares will be changing hands at an 18% premium so in other words you buy it now you would make 18% if it is 220 which is you know a good a good amount of money to make for the year uh and you may have seen some comments from Dan IES earlier today on brigher with Herbert Dan I've said the issue is with communication he also said he looks for the next six weeks to be kind of rough on Tesla uh but he believes it's going to be just fine over time and he has a current buy rating at $315 a share um he says the communications problem is not with Elon he says let Elon be Elon but there does need to be an adult in the room there needs to be somebody out there who can clearly enunciate Tesla's plans uh give the uh expectations that the street can rely on uh looking for things like like um execution guidance and guard rails I think that's all exactly right I think I've been talking today all about execution guidance yes I think it's always good to give guidance but you know they don't have to Apple doesn't many don't uh guard rails yes I think guard rails are good I think that should be part of the uh explanation but some kind of General expectation of where things are going in particular when it comes to the new items that are sitting out there that are getting absolutely no valuation in the stock right now like robotaxi like Optimus now I know Elon has been giving lots of expectations on road taxi for years so maybe he's gunshot anyway all right um be sure to hit like if you haven't already done that subscribe notify I just gave you the reason because tomorrow night is the biggest show of the week and then um you know buy cyber trucks and and join patreon those would all be good things to do oh by the way you know I I did two shows earlier today both of them had to do with advertising promotion about why can't Tesla get to 300 get to 2.5 million Vehicles this year I've got some feelers out for other people that I've been asking the question but as usual this particular crowd doesn't seem to be that interested in advertising promotion um marketing all those kind of subject matters so both of them did really lousy if you think that you maybe missed something I think you missed a lot because of course marketing is one of my favorite things in the world anyway you might want to go back and check those out I'll put cards up for both of them right here and here and you might want to go ahead and and and take a look I thought they were brilliant I mean basically I mean all right that's it for now it's been great talking to you
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