저자: RandyKirk · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 단기 변동성이 크며 채권 가격 반등과 전기차 전환 가속을 긍정적으로 보나, 미국 경기 침체 신호(수익률 곡선 역전)는 아직 확정적이지 않다고 본다. [시장 전반] 전날 하락장 이후 Fed 연설이 몰려 있어 오늘 변동성이 클 것으로 예상. 다우는 소폭 하락, 나스닥·S&P500은 소폭 상승, 테슬라는 약 0.5% 하락. [테슬라] 10월 2일 생산·인도 실적 발표는 부진할 가능성이 높고, 3주차 실적 발표는 마진 개선으로 소폭 긍정 서프라이즈 가능성. 실적 콜은 일론 머스크 발언 리스크로 불안정. 테슬라는 과거와 달리 위험 성장주가 아닌 저위험 종목이라 언급. [UAW 파업] 댄 아이브스 인용: 디트로이트 3사(GM·포드)에 재앙적 상황, 테슬라에는 긍정적. [미국채] HSBC가 연말 10년물 금리 전망을 3.5%로 상향, 현재 약 4.5% 대비 1%p 하락 가능성 언급. 채권 가격은 금리 하락 시 상승. 금리 고점 도달 가능성 언급(조건부). [미국 주택] 기존주택 판매 부진은 금리보다 극심한 매물 부족 때문이라고 주장. 현금 거래·투자자 비중 높음. [에너지] 러시아 디젤 수출 중단으로 유가 압력. 유가는 88~95 박스권 형성, 100달러까지 상승 전망 유지. 유럽의 천연가스 사용 감소로 겨울 난방비 부담 완화 기대. [경기침체 신호] 캠벨 하비 교수: 3개월-10년 역전 지표 기준 과거 침체를 100% 예측, 평균 14개월 후 침체. 현재 역전 시작 이후 아직 기간 미달로 오탐 단정 불가. [전기차] 도요타 2025년 전기차 생산 60만대 목표, 2026년 판매 150만대, 2030년 350만대. 랜디 커크는 2027년 말 내연기관 퇴출 가능성 제시. [기타] 비트코인 소폭 상승(약 2.66만 달러대), 달러는 고점권, 금은 하단 근처. 테슬라·기술주 등 개별 종목은 단기 변동성 예상. 구독·광고 홍보 다수 포함.
다듬은 글
well the market was down yesterday some people called it a bloodbath I wouldn't characterize it quite that way but Tesla was down to now none of that was very surprising given the FED move on Wednesday uh and today we've got fed presidents speaking so that's never good anyway what's going to happen next this morning it's been all over the place Tesla the last time I looked was down in an up and down Market kind of flat Market um so we're as far as I can tell and this is you know this is just me making my guesses based on all the available information I think that we will now start the next leg of the bull and I think that the next leg of Tesla's move up will also be true not just because there's a whole bunch of catalysts ahead um but there's also uh uh you know the overall good news according to the FED now some people are saying look the fed's always wrong that could be true they have not had a very good track record of being able to predict what's coming next Tesla does have a couple of rough days they have October 2nd that could be rough this time that'd be the day that they report the production numbers and the shipment numbers and a lot of people might be surprised by how low those are but we've been reporting in that for a while now and uh every evidence would be that they're going to be pretty rough now we also have the third week of October when we'll have the reporting of the uh actual earnings and then the earnings call of course the earnings call usually is a disaster if Elon speaks the earnings themselves um maybe a little bit of a surprise on the upside not a huge surprise the upside but primarily because of margin uh margins probably being better and energy being better than expected we might get a little bit of a surprise there and I've already reported all this of course before so uh right now there's some bargain hunting going on but as I mentioned Tesla is down more than the market this is Randy Kirk in case you've forgotten or maybe you're new um Brian and I will be doing a couple of episodes later this morning I think those won't play today they probably play over the weekend because I recorded a show uh yesterday that I think we'll do later today that's all about the 24 now votes 24 votes that Tesla has that are surrounding the Tesla castle that are filled with crocodiles and amazing terrible things that you can't get past anyway then Larry Goldberg and I will be on later today around four o'clock and we'll be talking about all the good news Because by the time Larry and I report I think the Mark will be up in so will Tesla what do you think oh no going into the weekend so um we'll also of course talk about patreon for a minute and you'll notice that one of the uh Tesla listener I mean one of my listeners this morning or yesterday said hey Randy why don't you put the bottle and the uh the bottle opener up there on your library shelf and so I did um not very well lit but at least it's there all right the federal rules reserves expectations that the U.S comedy will continue to expand and necessitate additional interest rate hikes maybe one later this year to combat inflation prompted HSBC to raise its year and forecast for 10-year U.S treasury yields to 3.5 percent remember we're sitting at 4.5 right now just under they raised it to 3.5 from 3 percent um this was according to strategists at the bank this is a drop of a full point from here if they're right the bond market is going to have a very nice time between now and the end of the year and this is not investment advice but if that's your inclination I've been talking about it for a long time this is that investment advice is just true Bond values raise as bond yields go down and a lot of people feel I feel that we are at the top of the bond Rate rates right now we could go up a little more but not much more and so that means that if the bond yields start to drop and why would they drop they would drop because a lot of people decide it's the top just like any other Market okay all markets act the same so if there becomes bargain shopping with regard to bonds then bonds could go up that's just the way it is and people have been talking about this for a while I didn't it's not an invention of Randy Kirks all right Thailand's new prime minister strata yeah okay I should have looked up the pronunciation anyway he's the prime minister of Thailand said on Thursday he held talks with Tesla Chief Elon Musk during a visit to New York they discussed the electric vehicle industry my question how many presidents premieres Kings princes has Elon had meetings with this year is anyone keeping track uh he's missed one one of the big ones that would be Biden sales of existing homes in August came in lighter than expected lighter than I expected and are approaching a near 13-year low not shocking according to data release Thursday by a trade group still Prices rose as I said and mortgage rates could uh move another leg up to eight percent so I read this whole article and at the end of the article I mean it's pages I mean you know paragraphs or paragraphs and paragraphs there was not one mention of the fact that there's no inventory that it's the least inventory that's been in the real estate business ever that it is half of what it was pre-pandemic which was already historic lows I mean four or five years in a row historic lows and then the pandemic historic lows more historicals and then now half of what the levels were going into the pandemic so um mortgage rates are not the issue we've had much higher mortgage rates than this and we could have we could they could go to eight percent but properties are moving very briskly when they come on the market they move others recognize I'm talking about people like you and me that are smart we recognize if we're in the market for a house if we need a house we're going to move into a new area and we need a house or we need to downsize rep size and we're willing to take the hit there's a lot of ways to skin the cat when it comes to mortgages uh you can uh you know get a mortgage at these levels now and paid and and uh pay later to lower your rate uh in a refi you can um pay down the rates you people are paying all cash maybe you're going to be moving down in size uh you sell your house for a million dollars uh in you know maybe you only owe 200 000 you get 800 000 cash you go buy something for 600 000.
I mean there's a lot of that going on I think it's something way over 20 of all the transactions right now are for cash and a higher number than that are all investors so you know this is an interesting situation that we're in right now um if you are thinking about a mortgage you need a mortgage call my friend Bill Raymond 310-453-4016 uh he's in the top one percent of all mortgage lenders in the country he's also my client even my client for 15 years my friend he's done multiple mortgages for me for family members for for my friends and clients um I will put his information down below and uh speaking of that some people have been asking me for the contact information for my CPA she's also a client she's a co-author in making money out of thin air but I'll put her information down below her name is Shayla Chamberlain all right patreon member Beatles for sale sent me a chart that shows that the Europeans are continuing to cut back on natural gas use by a lot all of these Commodities like natural gas and oil Etc are international so the drop in price or the drop in usage in Europe will affect the total prices that you'll be paying for your heating bill this winter but it's a good indication that Europe you know Europe is prepared again to deal with winter natural gas is going to be fine well you know the everybody seems to be putting pressure on right now the Russians have created a a block a another blockade they've stopped all exports of diesel out of Russia which is putting pressure on prices again this morning we'll talk about that in a second um as noted over and over again eventually oil sales will be impacted by the massive amount of natural gas that's on the market right now and the low prices on natural gas because there are abilities to trade off from oil to natural gas and those will start to be people will start doing that from Business Insider Campbell Harvey the Duke University Finance professor Professor who coined the inverted yield curve as an indicator of the of a coming downturn back in 1995 was the first time you started talking about it he doubled down on the accuracy of his famed recession gauge in an interview with CNBC on Thursday now he uses instead of the two-year or the two-month to make his decisions he uses the three-month compared to the 10-year everybody uses the 10-year then they compare it to the two-month the two-year and now he does I mean that's the two months the two year he says no he uses the three month and he says he's been correct 100 of the time on every recession since 1968 with no false recession I mean in other words every single time that the there's been an inversion there has been a an eventual uh downturn in the economy now when he says eventual he says he says it'll happen within 14 months on average uh that he says that's because the yield curve inversion typically lags behind the start of the recession average I'm sorry average rate of over four past four recessions 13 months this is only over four recessions now and 13 months the curve officially inverted on October 26 last year although the other inversions started way back in July said data shows meaning that the recession signal is just a few days shy of the 11 month Milestone if history is any guide that would put the start date of recession sometime in December or January on average it doesn't say in this article and all and and though the yield curve has flattened its inversion over the past six months and now it's back up again though that's typical behavior and such a flattening has proceeded the last four recessions he he warned the indicator is eight out of eight when predicting recessions no false signals so it's way too early to say this is a false signal maybe it does turn out to be a false signal but you can't say it's a false signal before you even hit the average number of months I'm not saying this is wrong but it certainly gives a lot of leeway so I would say that the Elon Musk rule is that after any new product announcement it will be completed on an average of three years after the announcement and the Randy Kirk rule is that any stock prediction will be true with an average of two months after the projected date so if I get that much leeway I think I'll have a very much higher record in terms of my predictions Reuters is reporting this morning that Toyota is going to speed up EB production they're going to aim for over 600 000 vehicles in 2025 according to the Nikkei um they said that Japanese automaker is likely to step a production of battery-powered Vehicles over the next coming years to reach an annual output of more than 600 000 in 2025.
now if the the company is the company has said that it targets sales of 1.5 million by 2026 and 3.5 million by 2030. so those numbers all make sense to me uh 600 000 in 2025 I think they're they're they're only doing about 25 000 now but they could ramp up that quickly especially I think they've got three different Automobiles and three completely different divisions so that 600 000 is not unrealistic uh by 2025 or at least being in a 600 000 run rate hitting 1.5 million in 2026 that's a little harder 3.5 million by the end of the decade I think that's a do doable so but this is the kind of thing we're going to need from all of the companies in order to get ice completely out of the business by my estimate of end of 2027.
now end of 2027 under the new rule the new Randy rule that gives me I get two years on either side it's an average my average estimate is that it'll be 2027 end of 2027. anyway um but yes if if 21 companies are all making a million cars and a couple of them are making three and a couple of a couple are making you know elon's making 11 and byd is making six we should make it by the end of 2027.
all right uh no change in true flation today still sitting at 2.66 Dan Ives post this morning on X our worry around the UAW strike is it's a disaster situation for the Detroit big three with the head scratcher current deal on the table the deal in our view is mathematical gymnastics that negatively changes the business model of GM and Ford meanwhile Tesla has champagne on Ice okay lots of fed speakers today so a lot of opportunities for volatility the day treaters day Traders will be having a field day in my opinion now Maybe not maybe it all just flattens out and goes away but there's already a lot of ups and downs this morning the Dow has already been up 20 and down 20 or you know and and anyway a lot of a lot of crazy trading going on let us take a look and see where things stand as we hit just about seven o'clock on my on my uh on my time here California time all right so Tesla which has been down three been up to is now down 132 it is down where everybody all the other magnificents well Microsoft's down two cents uh the Dow is now down 36.
uh NASDAQ is up 61 s p is up seven in percentages those would be the Dow was just down you know 0.11 NASDAQ is up almost a half a percent s p up 0.16 and Tessa down a half a percent the rest of the magnificence now are all in green and all the Kathy Woods are down so it's a really weird Tesla on some days is following the Kathy woods again and that used to be true that Tesla was commonly very similar to the Kathy Woods as they moved up and down what I call the Kathy Woods would be the not only Kathy Woods actual ETFs but also some of the companies that she's strong on like square and PayPal and tdoc Etc and so I watch all those and typically because they are I call them risky growth stocks they change based on the uh based on the interest rates change a lot based on interest rates and that's what Tesla was doing for a long time but now Tesla should not be doing that anymore it is uh it is now not risky at all it is one of the least risky stocks on the market so I'm unclear as to why it is moving opposite of the mark welding but barely it's very very early and it's very a very small move but interesting the UAW should be positive for Tesla the the coming announcement of the the various catalysts all kinds of catalysts those should be positive I'm not sure makes now Kathy Wood has been selling a lot of Tesla stock lately maybe she's busy again this morning anyway let's take a look at the rest of the indicators this morning and what we've got is we've got the Bitcoin up a little tiny bit at 26.6 we have got the dollar at uh still at all you know very much at the top uh gold is up just a little bit but sitting down close to the lower end of this recent range we've got oil up again back to 91.
however now we're starting to see some range happening here a little bit of rain selling between 88 89 92 that's a very small range on the Texas intermediate same thing on the Brent 90 to 95 90 to 94 and a half actually so this is all of a sudden there's a little range settling in here maybe who knows which way it'll break out um yeah I believe it's still going to run to 100 um but it's but it's now starting to show a lot of resistance to getting Above This current range could could uh could meet more resistance all markets like I said up above all markets work the same and right now that's what we're seeing in oil okay and bonds they are down 4.458 for the 10-year so it's bounced up against that 4.5 was actually above 4.5 a couple of times yesterday but it's also having a little bit of trouble getting above that number if we look at the two month it is up a little bit this morning at 5.44 we look at the three months now okay that's just for fun five almost 5.5 so just a little higher than the two month um we've got so that those are going up while the tenure is going down uh and we've got the two year which is still above five at five point one um all right well that is where we are this morning what do I think will happen today I think I've already said I think it's gonna be a choppy day I think there's a lot of up and down that's what I've seen so far this morning I think that'll continue to be the case especially with I think four fed speakers coming out morning lots of opportunity for things to be tossed around would you like to be a part of the production team of this of this amazing organization this YouTube channel man would you like to get one of these for participating in patreon with me all you got to do is join at the 10 level thank you so much for so many people joining this month at the 10 level and if you join at the five dollar level now if you join the five dollar level you get one of the two books above there and there's two other choices as well um you get one of those for free on the audio version those are like you know 15 to 20 deals okay so you get those for free or well on the five dollar level that's all you get one of those at the ten dollar level you can have two of those and or I mean not and or you could have one of these magnets these amazing bottle opener magnets that's why it's leaning up against a bottle it's because it's a bottle opener be sure if you order one tell me whether you want stainless or whether you want the camo and these are just so much fun and they're only 25 bucks okay so they're great for gifts great for just something to put up in a shadow box in your home put it on your refrigerator uh maybe you're waiting and waiting and waiting for your camo for your camo version of the upcoming CT uh but you'd like to have something to to remind you of it every day of how how anxious you are sitting there waiting for it to come anyway information down below how you can go to PayPal dot me forward slash Randy Kirk all in uh uh lower case letters and 25 a piece if you're not in the country please add another five dollars uh uh to I'm sorry another twenty dollars real quick now if you're outside the country add another twenty dollars to cover the freight uh no matter how many you buy all right all right that's all I got uh let me get this posted so you guys can hear it and we'll talk to you a couple of more times a day
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