저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
쿠팡은 드러켄밀러 포트폴리오 2위 종목으로 언급되며 주가는 상장 후 약 50% 하락했으나 연초 대비 54% 상승. 1분기 매출 28%·2분기 30%(환율 제외) 성장, 활성고객·로켓그로스 등 지표 개선, 매출총이익률 29.3%로 상승. 역DCF 기준 내재성장률 13.7%는 낮아 보이며, 15% 성장·3% 영구성장률 가정 시 내재가치 약 30달러로 약 7% 상승여력 제시. 중국 경기부양 등으로 럭셔리 시장 바닥 가능성과 파페치 인수 효과 언급. RSI가 높지만 과매수는 아님.
다듬은 글
it's been a while since I've talked about this company this is a company that sits in Stanley drer Miller's portfolio it's the number two position for him so pretty big deal if you follow these types of investors the company has a market cap of 4445 billion year to date it has been performing quite well but overall since it went public it's down close to 50% year to date it's actually up 54% now you can categorize this company as a risky or China attached type of company because well the sentiment around this one and around C limited for example has been bad but C limited is up triple digits this year and this company is up 54% this year as well but I do still think I do still think that it is flying under the radar the company I'm talking about is of course cang the so-called Amazon of South Korea of course without about the AWS business now it is not the cheapest one out there right now based on the current metrics that we have because as you can see right here forward PE sits at 86.1 times ev2 Abida 26 times price to sales is fine 1.4 times price to free cash flow close to 30 times now this is because as we go back here to the analyst estimates this is because in fisc 2024 EPS is expected to be ne2 cents but after that huge growth so 59 cents in fiscal year 2025 and then 90 cents in fiscal year 2026 basically growing 51 52% year over-year so you're paying around 27 times fiscal year 2026 earnings which which is okay especially if you are expected to grow close to 50% of course that 50% will not continue but even if let's say the year after that it's what 30% 30 5% I think paying 27 times earnings is not that bad now let's go over everything that has happened with coupang some metrics business metrics as well couple of comments from the past to earning score before doing that if you enjoy this type of videos leave a thumbs up subscribe if have not up in comments as I was saying this is stanes drug Miller's number two position the number one is this company right here in the industrial sector ticker symbol C HR the number three is in the energy segment so he's got 7.88% in coupang now this is what was mentioned basically in the last two earnings SCS so in q1 cang's Revenue increased by 28% year over year driven by increased spending from existing customers and a 16% year-over-year increase in active customers the company's fulfillment and Logistics by cang or FLC offering recorded a 130% increase in unit sold year-over-year the developing offering segment including farfetch grew over 340% year-over-year on a constant currency basis cang plans to invest billions in capital expenditures to strengthen its fulfillment and Logistics infrastructure aiming to increase delivery speed and expand free delivery across Korea the company also expects to provide over $4 billion in W membership benefits for customers in 2024 W is basically their Prime equivalent in Q2 cpan reported strong performance with Revenue growth of 30% on constant currency basis 23% excluding the farfetch acquisition the company saw a 12% year-over-year increase in active customers and a significant growth in Marketplace sales with outpace first party sales coupang developing offerings such as coupang eats also showed strong momentum looking ahead cang is optimistic about its untapped Market potential and plans to continue its strategy of disciplined investment and operational excellence to capture this potential the company is also making progress with its faret acquisition aiming for a positive adjusted evida run rate by the end of the year this happens going to be a huge huge success and so looking at the business from let's say a zoomed out perspective gross profit margin has grown to 29 .3% as you can see in q1 2021 that was at 17.4% if you look at the stock price the stock price has come down while these metrics have gone up developing offering Revenue has increased 76% since q1 20121 produ Commerce Revenue has increased by 56.9% since that same period now overall like we've seen stock is down close to 50% since q1 2021 total revenue is up 192% since then and gross profit is up 74.1% since then so the company has improved and has grown quite fast yet the stock has come down now okay maybe maybe when it went public it was just overpriced overvalued huge huge disconnect in the stock market and so it did not make sense okay fine but you have to admit that there is right now also a disconnect maybe now a bit less than at the start of the year since the stock is up over 50% but still this company is operating in a I would say nishish Market but a pretty big Market which is the South Korean one and so over the last couple of years Revenue has grown a gger of 18.5% gross profit closer to 39% and capex yes capex has increased a little bit as they said they plan on investing billions in the coming years that's great that positions them well and basically puts the bar even higher for competitors to compete against them yes of course their competitors are let's say Amazon as well but since this is a local player as we've seen with mercardo Libre usually their citizens let's say prefer to use the local player over a foreign one then we''re talking here about free cash flow free cash flow has been stable-ish other than two quarters here has been stable around 400 500 million or so as the company becomes more and more profitable expect that number to go up now if we do a quick reverse DCF here free cash flow in the last 12 months was $1.5 billion I put here a terminal growth rate of just 2% and a discount rate of 10% and so we reached an implied growth rate here of 13.7% that's how much free cash flow has to grow to justify the current price do you think that this is good enough or maybe too much or maybe too little me personally I think 13.7% for a company like cang right now is a bit low I mean if you look at the anest estimates yes this is just sales growth and EPS growth not free cash flow but you can see that one sales growth is probably going to be closer to 15% or so on average 13 14% or so on average in the next coming years and then EPS is still expected to grow probably above 20% for the next couple of years and so I do think that 13.7% right now which brings us quite close to the price we're at today is quite low and so if I put here 15% growth in free cash flow plus I also change the terminal growth rate to around 3% we get an intrinsic value an estimated inic value that is closer to $30 so representing around 7 % upside from the price we're at today of course we can change things around right we can put the terminal growth rate at 3.5% or keep it at 3% or 2% and then change the discount rate and maybe improve let's say the growth rates in the first couple of years and then decreasing in the year 10 year n or something like that and of course then you'll get some different numbers here but this is basically me being a bit conservative giving us some margin of safety so that's it right now I think I think it's fairly valued I think there should be some upside especially because of one the way they're operating business-wise it's founder Le great vision they're not really burning that much money on crazy projects yes they're growing outside of South Korea for example in Taiwan as well but that's still very very small for them it will take a while you might also say oh since they're only doing South Korea how big can this become well South Korea is pretty big it's a pretty stable economy as well plus with the acquisition of farfetch yes I know luxury Market has not been doing great recently touched on LV Mash but with the recent announcements in China stimulating trying to stimulate the economy I do think that the luxury Market could be bottoming pretty soon and so a company like farfetch could be benefiting from that as well and so right now looking at the stock it's right under $25 RSI is pretty high nearing being overbought but we're not overbought just yet we were overbought back here in April where the stock was at around 23 $24 of course right now we are higher and we're not overbought just yet so there might be a little bit of upside left of course we also have positive Market momentum right now rate Cuts more specifically of course in China some good news with regards to Ste stimulating the economy so yeah some positive momentum of course cang South Korea not a Chinese company but as we've seen with C limited they all get put in one basket for one reason or another so yeah that's just the way I guess the stock market works but overall I do feel like cang is a pretty strong company I've covered this company when it was at 17 $18 or so went back up I mean you've probably heard about cang on this channel because I think I'm one of the only one talking about this one so yeah it will be interesting to see how things evolve especially in the next coming quarters going into 2025 as well so that's about it for me in this vide see you all in the next one bye-bye
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