저자: DavidTepper인용—발언자는영상진행자해설중심,설명란없음 · 외국인
요약 보기
Tepper가 최근 중국 주식(알리바바 등)을 공격적으로 매수했다는 13F 기반 분석. 중국 정부 자본 투입(약 1420억 달러) 및 경기부양 기대로 중국 주식이 급등. 알리바바·핀둬둬·바이두 밸류에이션은 낮은 편이나 실적 개선은 아직 확인 필요. 진행자 본인은 중국 주식 미보유, 미국 메타·알파벳·아마존은 여전히 매력적이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
Alibaba was a big position. You really ramped it up in the first quarter. You reduced it, I think, in the second quarter. What are you doing now? Have the changes in China in the last few days affected you, because earlier you said that you would not exceed 10-12%, and recent events indicate that you have about 12% in Alibaba.
Does this mean you've thrown away those limitations and are ready to own an even bigger share? As I said, the risk model is what allows me to sleep well at night. I exceeded that limit after the Fed announcement last week. I bought more when they made a statement a day or two ago regarding the Fed. And last night I did even more.
Only Alibaba, or do you also mean JD, Baidu? Sun- PDB, two Chinese ETFs, everything related to China. All. ETFs, you know, I would take futures too, right? Mm . All. All. You just heard billionaire investor David Tepper of Appaloosa Management talk about investing in China. In fact, he is extremely optimistic about his investments.
His portfolio already has quite a few companies and fairly large positions. As you heard from him, he is increasing his presence quite aggressively. Now I said: buy everything. Buy everything. We've heard him say this in the past. I found a post from 2010 where he says pretty much the same thing . Look right now.
What do you have now? I just have the Fed. What did they tell me? What did they tell me, Joe? FOMC? So, what did they...what did the Fed just tell me? QE2, maybe. Tickets are open. They will fail. And what did they say? They say they want economic growth, right? Is that what they said? Mm. And they said, "We want economic growth, and we don't even care...not only do we not care about having inflation, we want a little more inflation." Have they ever said this before?
Do you remember anything like that in your career? No. Do they say that? No. So, QE2 is the same thing. the market is up. Okay, so who am I? I'm going to say: no, Fed, I disagree with you. I don't want to be in long positions. I don't want to hold stocks. We are focused on bonds, but have changed our position slightly in favor of stocks.
Or will the economy improve on its own over the next 3 months, and what assets will perform well then? You can guess which assets will be successful. The shares will demonstrate success. Bonds will not be as successful. Gold will not perform so well. Or the economy won't recover in the next 3 months and the Fed will resort to quantitative easing, right?
So what will be successful then ? Everything is in the near future. All. Of course, times are different now, right? Other times, a major financial crisis. Now, yes, we've had a pandemic, we've had high inflation, etc., but I don't think we're anywhere near the level of destruction and despair that we had in 2008.
But it's interesting to hear him say or at least hint at the same thing 14 years later. Of course, now he is also talking specifically about China and the Chinese exposition . If you're not aware of what's been happening, China is injecting $142 billion of capital into leading banks. Bloomberg News and Reuters reported on Thursday that China is considering plans to inject $142 billion in capital into leading state-owned banks to further support the economy.
Financing for the infusion will primarily come from the issuance of new special sovereign bonds . Such a huge infusion would be the first since the 2008 global financial crisis , which was, of course, a rather positive signal for Chinese stocks. This came a few days after the People's Bank of China also announced positive policies, effectively stimulating the Chinese economy.
So what happens after such announcements? Well, Chinese stocks are rising, and rising quite significantly. They were already up about 10 % a few days ago, and today they are up another 10-13%. JD shares are up nearly 14% today. PDD, Pinduoduo, not a PDD person, grew by 13.3%. KWEB, which is essentially an ETF; if you want to gain exposure to many Chinese companies, just buy this ETF.
It grew by 11%. Alibaba grew by 9.6%, and Baidu by 8.3%. Now let's dive a little deeper into Appaloosa Management's portfolio, the positions in it, especially the Chinese ones. If you're interested, click all the buttons: like, subscribe, everything. We are on track to reach 60,000 followers by the end of this year.
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Thank you very much. So, David Tepper, Appaloosa Management. This is the second quarter data, the latest 13F report, they have 37 stocks. The value of the portfolio is $6.17 billion. The largest position is Alibaba with a share of 12.3%. In second place is Amazon with 10.9%. This is followed by Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Oracle, Pinduoduo, AMD, Adobe, FXI, Qualcomm, FedEx, Micron, Baidu, and ETN.
Of course, there are other smaller companies with a share of less than 2%. So, over the last two quarters, he has significantly added Chinese companies to his portfolio. In the first quarter, it increased its stake by 188% in Baidu, by almost 171% in Pinduoduo, by 158.6% in Alibaba, and also added Oracle, United Parcel Service (UPS), Caesars Entertainment, and opened new positions in JD and iShares China, which is an ETF.
In the second quarter, he slightly increased his holdings in KraneShares 2K Holdings, JD, and iShares China for Chinese assets, but slightly reduced his holdings in large companies by 6-7%, which you can actually see here. This is the history of holding Alibaba shares in this portfolio. Previously, in the first quarter of 2020, the share in the portfolio was higher— 13.46%, and in the fourth quarter of 2022 it was only 0.65%.
Since then, it has, of course, grown significantly , but the number of shares decreased from the first to the second quarter. As I said, he shortened the position a little. And, of course, as the stock rose in price, the proportion in the portfolio also increased slightly. So, this is about Alibaba.
If you look at Baidu, this is , one might say, a more recent position. But here, in the first quarter of 2021, it only accounted for 0.14% of the portfolio, and then in the second quarter of 2023 it grew to 3.24%. But now we have a decline again; Although the number of stocks is higher today, the percentage in the portfolio is slightly lower.
As for Pinduoduo, in the second quarter of 2023 it accounted for less than 1% of the portfolio. It's now about 4.18%, but of course there are significantly more shares today than there were then. But, as I said, from the first to the second quarter, he reduced the number of shares, but due to the increase in price, the share in the portfolio also increased.
Plus, of course, he sold some other positions, so that makes up the difference. Now, if you compare these companies: Pinduoduo, Alibaba, Baidu, from a forward P/E perspective, Alibaba now has 11.5. Pinduoduo—10. Baidu—9.3. If you look at the PEG ratio (price/ earnings to growth rate), Alibaba is 1.19.
Baidu—a little more than one. And Pinduoduo is not here. I don't know why they don't indicate this. Same with the price to free cash flow ratio, but I know that number. It is below 0.5. So, these are definitely cheap stocks to own. Same with the price to free cash flow ratio for Pinduoduo, it is also quite low.
Here Alibaba trades at a multiple of 13.5. Baidu— 10.7. If we look at EV to EBITDA, for Alibaba it is 8.1, for Pinduoduo it is 7.3, and for Baidu it is 5.6. Of course, this stock has risen in a short period of time, and we don't know if business has suddenly accelerated. I mean, we can assume that business hasn't improved much in the last 2 weeks, right?
Alibaba's growth rate is still quite low. Of course, Pinduoduo is growing a little faster, well, not a little, but a lot faster. Yes, from an assessment point of view, it is quite low. Yes, many of these companies have a lot of cash. And now that the Chinese government is actually stimulating the economy and will likely encourage these companies to buy back even more shares, we may see an acceleration in the growth of these companies, but of course it will take some time.
So, in the short term, it all comes down to finding opportunities or perhaps finding a gap between reality and the stock price. I still believe they are valued as cheap stocks because there are still some risks associated with them. Besides, the market is, of course, still waiting for a positive impact on each of these businesses, right?
It's great to hear that the Chinese government wants to stimulate the economy and so on. But we want to see these positive effects in the financial statements and earnings reports in the coming quarters . So, if you don't know which Chinese companies to choose, of course there are popular options, like the ones we've looked at: JD, Pinduoduo, Alibaba, similar ones, Baidu.
You can choose individual stocks or buy a basket here, KWEB, k-w-e-b, essentially an ETF. And here the largest shares belong to Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, JD, Pinduoduo, Trip.com, etc. So you get access to all these companies, essentially like an ETF in the US that tracks big tech companies or even the Magnificent Seven.
So, essentially, you get the same thing , but here—purely Chinese stocks. And yes, you see these numbers here because these are essentially stocks that are listed in China or maybe even Hong Kong, or both. He also talked a little about the United States. He said he wasn't going to gamble on relegation, but purely from a valuation perspective, it's not that attractive anymore .
So it will be quite interesting to see what he does with these positions here: Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet, because for me personally, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon are still extremely attractive. I mean, maybe not as attractive as late 2022, but I've covered these companies quite a bit on the channel.
I will be covering these companies more and more often. I still think they have a place in everyone's portfolio. Personally, I own shares of Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet. But I can understand his position: look, he's betting more on China now because, first of all , Alibaba is already a big position for him.
It also has Pinduoduo and Baidu. And now it is bringing results. The Chinese government is making it clear that they are ready to stimulate the economy. They will likely push these companies to buy back even more of their own shares because they have plenty of cash. So that makes sense. It makes sense to swim against the current, against the idea that "oh, China is not worth investing in." And I repeat again and again: you can invest in China if you can manage the risk.
If you can handle the risk—maybe that's a better way to put it. If you can stomach the risk that these are Chinese stocks and the CCP can do anything and essentially completely wipe out your investment. If you can do that, then yes, you can own Chinese stocks and find your “alpha”. Because Alibaba went from $70—not in the 1970s, but $70—to now have grown by 40-45%.
You can find a lot of alphas here, right? Because it's not suitable for investment? No, of course it's appropriate because people buy it. So, yes, it all comes down to choice: do you want to have a stake in China or not? Personally, I don't have any Chinese stocks in my portfolio. That does n't mean I hate these stocks.
No, not at all. I can find value in them . You can also find value in American or European stocks. There are still stocks that are undervalued, cheap, and have the potential to grow in the future. So, that's all, actually. That's the whole story with David Tepper and investments in China. I hope this was informative.
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