저자: AlissaCorm · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 반도체 강세 속 지수는 약보합 마감, 엔비디아는 기술적 약세로 관망, AMD는 단기 매매 관심, 브로드컴은 매수 구간 상단으로 추격보다 비중 축소 접근이 유효하다는 시각. 시장 개황: 나스닥은 약 0.7% 상승 후 장중 상승폭이 줄었고, S&P 500은 하락 전환해 하단에서 마감해 약세 다이버전스가 나타났다는 평가. 시장 리스크: 미중 무역협상 우려가 재부각되었고, 2018년 4분기 조정 당시처럼 중국 이슈와 연준 긴축 우려가 주요 변수로 언급됨. 연준 전망: 다음날 FOMC 금리 동결 가능성은 CME 페드워치 기준 약 98.7%로 제시되었고, 인하 가능성 1.3%가 언급됨. 1월 파월의 톤 변화 이후 긴축에서 동결 쪽으로 기조가 바뀌었다고 평가. 엔비디아: 200일 이동평균선 아래에서 거래되어 과거 2016년 같은 강세 패턴이 아니라고 판단. 아마존 데이터센터 파트너십 소식은 긍정적이나 차트상 매력은 낮다고 봄. 방향: 약세 시사, 관망 입장. AMD: 구글 게임 스트리밍 서비스 파트너십 소식으로 12% 급등, 직전 저항선 25.52달러 돌파. 단기 매매 관점에서 25.52달러 이상 진입 가능성을 언급하며 변동성 때문에 포지션 크기를 줄일 것을 권고. 게임 스트리밍의 지연시간 문제는 우려 요인으로 언급. 브로드컴: 실적 발표 후 갭상승 이후 상승세를 이어가며 신고가 부근 거래. 매수 구간 상단(약 288.72달러)에 도달해 추격 매수보다 포지션을 작게 가져가거나 조정 시 추가 매수하는 전략 제시. 과도한 확장은 조정 위험이 있다고 경고. 출연자 전망: 세 종목 모두 단기 시각이며 장기 전망은 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Good afternoon from Los Angeles, it's Alissa Corm and Justin Neelon with a look at today's stock market. On today's show we're taking a look at three chip stocks: AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom. But we did see the major indexes fade into the close on concerns over China trade talks.
What's new on that? How long have we been dealing with this, exactly? The Nasdaq closed up about 2%, the S&P 500 was mainly flat, and the Dow dipped just a smidge. Even though the Nasdaq was only up a little, tech definitely outperformed today.
That's one of the things where you want to look at both charts, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, to really get a sense of where the strength was. Today tech won, especially the semiconductors, which is why we're talking about them. But if you look at the S&P 500, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were up 0.7%, so it was having a fairly decent day. Then the S&P 500 got a little worse, more so than the Nasdaq. Again, it was chips that were helping prop the Nasdaq up a little.
Take a look at that divergence when you see it closing in the lower part of the range. That's one of the things you don't like to see. The S&P 500 was actually in danger of possibly triggering, depending on how volume comes in. Those are the things we look for when we see a weak close, because a lot of times some weakness follows, so we just want to be careful of that.
That's right. A quick look at the Nasdaq to see where we are. How we're holding gains little by little. As we've talked about, this uptrend has been quite profitable for many investors, so seeing a slow-down in the pace of the uptrend isn't too surprising. And it's funny that China reared its ugly head again. Yesterday we talked about how the Shanghai Composite was up 2.5%, and it didn't really translate into the domestic markets. But today we have these China fears again. It almost reminds me of Ross and Rachel, will they or won't they. Sometimes I think of it as a little bit of fatigue with the whole China story. That was definitely something in Q4 of 2018, along with the Fed and its hawkish moves, that was behind the correction we saw, and that was a decent correction.
Exactly. Along with trade, the other hot issue is the Fed and interest rates. With the Fed meeting this week, could we expect whatever is said to be a catalyst for the market?
We've certainly seen a very dramatic shift. Jerome Powell's tone on January 4th, the follow-through day, was a big shift in what the Fed was thinking. Now we have the Fed announcement tomorrow. If you go to the CME's market watch tool, or FedWatch tool, the odds are 98.7% of no change, and that's what it's looked like for most of the year. We went from very hawkish, "they're going to tighten, they're going to raise," to "they're probably going to hold pat," and that was a very good thing. Interestingly, the 1.3% expecting a change expect a decrease, so that's a very big shift in their thinking.
We'll keep an eye on that and the potential impact on the broader market. The announcement is at 2:00 Eastern time tomorrow.
Okay, we'll keep an eye on that. In the meantime, let's take a look at three chip stocks. Nvidia and AMD are somewhat competitors here, a tale of two charts. Nvidia for three years straight was one of the leading chip stocks, but now it's a different story. They've always had the graphics thing down, but AI is what really got people excited, especially with self-driving cars. Today they announced some partnership news with Amazon, which is using them in its T4 data centers, a big deal. But if you look at the Nvidia chart, what's hard for me to get excited about is that Nvidia is trading below its 200-day moving average. This isn't the chart we were looking at back in 2016, when it had its 300% rise coming out of a nice base. This isn't something I'm looking at right now as very exciting.
Now shift over to AMD, which as you mentioned is a competitor. Funny thing, Chris Gessel, our executive editor, tapped me this morning and said, "Hey, look at AMD." We didn't know what was going on or what the news was, but why did it come up on his screen? Just looking at strength: the chips were strong, and AMD was doing very well. It was crossing the area around 25.52, a previous high, and we were looking at that and saying, "Hi, what's going on here?" As the day progressed it kept going up more and more. I think it closed up 11%, or 12% today.
What was the news there?
The partnership with Google. It's a competitor to Google's video game streaming service, Stadia. I did talk to some of our gamers in our tech section, and their biggest concern is latency. Is the internet fast enough to handle this right now? Graphics are a big component of that. It's one thing for single-player games, and very different for multiplayer games, and how far you are from the data center matters.
Right now AMD is up 12%, and it crossed that previous resistance at 25.52. Because it was up so much today, you might have to take a smaller position size if you're going to play this, but it's definitely one to watch. If you added 10 cents above that 25.52, would that be the entry point?
That's the area of resistance. On a short-term play, this isn't your normal base, right?
Exactly, way too short to be a proper base. But as a short-term play, that's what I'm looking at as the resistance.
All right, last but not least, let's take a look at Broadcom, extending its gains after an earnings gap up last week. The stock finished the day up about 1.9%, so it's very positive to see these gains being extended.
More importantly, it's what we were talking about yesterday, holding the gains. That was the first component: it was able to hold those strong gains after its earnings report, and now it's moving higher into new high ground. It's right at the top of its buy range. We have that 28.72 buy point from the straight pivot, and it gapped above that, so now we're looking at the top of its buy range.
That's what I was going to ask: is it too far extended at this level? It looks like it's right on the cusp. Maybe if you haven't bought it already, you're buying a smaller position just because you're at the end of that buy range. Ideally you would have bought it on the earnings, so this is a time where you see it continuing to move and can add to it. That's generally what we like to do: add on strength.
What happens if you buy a stock that's too extended?
You put yourself at risk of getting shaken out if there's a pullback. Pullbacks are normal, especially after a big run. That's why with AMD up 12%, you've got to be a little cautious. You might have a lower position size to compensate for the extra risk of a pullback.
Well, there you have it. We looked at three chip stocks with compelling chart action. Head to investors.com for more stock news and analysis, and check us out on social media, whether YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram, to stay up to date on the latest. Thanks for joining us today, and we'll see you back here tomorrow.
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