저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라가 옵티머스 사업으로 1조~10조 달러 매출을 주장하며 막대한 투자가 정당화된다고 말함. 2025년 6월 오스틴 무감독 완전자율주행 유료 출시 발표를 호재로 봄. 다만 실제 수익화는 먼 미래이며, 회사는 자율주행 실적 부진을 미래 기술 발표로 가리는 패턴을 반복한다는 비판적 시각. 제작자는 책 홍보로 마무리.
다듬은 글
in the latest Game of Tesla throwing out massive numbers they stated that they believe The Optimist business will generate north of $1 trillion in Revenue that's right1 trillion of Revenue now I'll talk about that side of the business and other things that Tesla is developing that's driving prospects and investor enthusiasm for one of the hottest stocks in the market right now I want to thank the mle for here you have the comments from Tesla CEOs saying that longer term Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in Revenue so in that environment he says you can obviously afford a lot of investment to develop that technology which is true if you believe that it's going to generate $10 trillion in Revenue you can invest $500 billion to develop that technology and in fact that would be a great deal because your return on investment will be like 20x uh assuming that it results in $10 trillion in uh profit eventually right $10 trillion in Revenue that's annual and of course it's going to generate more than just one year of Revenue so in that world of course 500 billion do is a worthwhile investment so Tesla stock investors you can be prepared for a several billion dollar investment in this technology if the CEO indeed believes that the return on investment is going to be this incredible moving forward they also said that they're going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin Texas in June that was great news all the delays all the push backs are finally over and it looks like Tesla will be launching unsupervised full self-driving in Austin Texas in June they feel confident in being able to do an initial launch of unsupervised no one in the car full self-driving in Austin in June that's great news for Tesla stock investors it doesn't need to be great right it it could just be something that is driving the same Loop like going from the same spot to the other same spot and doing only that one route all day long and taking maybe two or three customers in a day doesn't matter it doesn't need to the tangible things don't need to be great it's the marketing of these things that will result in great news for Tesla stock investors just to be able to say like look we have unsupervised self-driving in the world today it's operating right now we're doing it even if it's just you know two customers in a day or whatever thing that it might be that's less important for Tesla stock this is what will drive the stock price increase is just the announcement the uh press release saying the pictures and everything all the promotion around the event of actually having that you know self-driving happening in Austin Texas and then you know they'll launch a second City and a third City even you know if it's just one or two little places that they're doing the self-driving doesn't matter it's just the marketing and the advertising the word of mouth the buzz that it'll create from these things that really drives Tesla's stock performance investors have become uh convinced that these events lead to stock price increases so they buy the stock in anticipation of these events and then when the event comes when it comes time to actually see the tangible results by that time they're already selling something else in the future they're already talking about something else that's happening like 6 months later or 9 months later or 12 months later some other event or some other announcement and so the actual results being less than great which is what those that are following this stock with a clear set of glasses we tend to see this as you know they say they're going to have a $25,000 model they have a $40,000 model they say they're going to have this and they have something else and so this is what is probably going to happen nevertheless I think this event will be great news for Tesla stock investors with regard to Optimus obvious viously I'm making these Revenue predictions that sound absolutely insane I realize that the CEO saying he realizes that these predictions are insane but then saying that I think they will prove to be accurate I'm making these claims that it's going to generate this much revenue and I think they will be accurate and you can make that statement because he can share data that says look according to what we've seen so far with the progress if we extrapolate that progress forward 15 years then at the end of that 15 years this is what I reasonably expect to happen I can reasonably make that prediction because this is what I see so far despite the fact that in the real world these may never happen the predictions can be made and the increase in the valuation of the stock price as a result of these predictions is happening today so they've been doing this for a long time now and they've done a great job of keeping shareholder value higher despite the lack of tangible progress on these developments now I said the lack of tangible progress which is an understatement they have made tangible progress but nowhere near the rate that would assume these products will become Revenue generating products anytime in the near future that's the kind of tangible progress I'm talking about these products are not resulting in actual revenues and cash flows and profits anytime anytime soon and so investors will have to wait a very long time for the Optimus robot and in my opinion I think as the realities of the driverless car market start to take shape and you start to Tesla stock investors start to realize now I fully believe that they're going to develop driverless car technology I think that's going to happen it's just a matter of when is it next year five years from now eight years from now they're going to develop that technology if they keep spending money and giving attention to that technology they will develop it but the market reality will disappoint the actual revenue and cash flow and profit from that market I think will be less than what they were initially predicting and so as that reality starts to take shape the Optimus robot will be time for them to start hyping up the Optimus robot so 5 years later as you start to realize the driverless car market is not generating anywhere near those exciting projections that they were making for this whole time then they can start making exciting predictions about the Optimus robot and by that time the robot they may have made more progress on the robot so they can have announcements and they can have demonstrations with the robot and then all the attention will go to the robot and then the disappointments of the driverless car market will be less in focus with investors if they continue that strategy that they've been able to execute for the previous five years which is you know whenever it comes time to deliver they shift the focus to the Future technology Because the actual technology that they delivered is nowhere near what they were forecasting in the previous three year
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