저자: CoachInvestor · 외국인
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빌 애크먼 퍼싱스퀘어 포트폴리오 중 치폴레와 로우스를 장기 보유 적합 종목으로 제시. 치폴레는 비싸지만 주식수 감소, FCF/주당 증가, EPS 5년 성장률 23% 등을 근거로 장기 보유 추천. 로우스는 DIY 소비 회복을 전제로 2024년 실적 반등 기대, 배당 성장 강조.
다듬은 글
hey everyone coach investor back to our video for today so let's talk about two stocks in Bill amman's persing Square Holdings portfolio that I feel are forever buys now if you don't know it's a pretty small portfolio of stocks actually it consists of only eight positions these are the eight companies Chipotle restaurant brand International Hilton Howard Hughes Low's alphabet Canadian Pacific cancas and the other thicker for alphabet now in this video I'll talk about the two positions which I feel are just buys and holds forever of course you might agree you might disagree that's completely fine I'll show you the current state of those companies those current stocks the projections for the coming years what analysts are expecting the graph later on then a couple of things from their earlier earnings report so first stop is Chipotle Mexican Grill of course some people will say extremely extremely expensive company right 40 4.5 time forward earnings market cap $61 billion I mean to me too expensive okay fine I can understand those that are saying that this is just way too high for a restaurant chain right okay but if we look further we can see that compared to its 5year mean it is actually cheaper if we want to have a look at a longer time frame we can do the 10-year even the 10 year it is a bit cheaper when you look at the forp when you look at ev2 Abida price to sales we are a bit more expensive with price to sales at 5.7 times compared to four times if we look at price to free cash flow we are actually a bit lower there 44.3 times compared to 61.9 times so yes it's cheaper but still expensive but there is a reason for that if we look at what has happened with Chipotle shares outstanding in the last 10 years well shares standing are down approximately 24% we look at free cash flow per share that has gone up quite substantially throughout the years and especially in the last two years and it doesn't stop there if you look at the EPS estimate 5year growth rates here sits at 23% now if we look at the current analyst price Target the average sits at $238 which represent just 3.1% upside then if we look at what the analysts are expecting which regard regards to sales and EPS growth for the next coming fiscal years sales growth in fisc year 2024 of 13.1% but EPS growth of 20.34% then a bit of the same in fiscal year 2025 so to me when a company like this can grow fiscally 2023 EPS 34% then another 20% in the two consecutive years year-over-year grow that is I mean to me that warrants a high premium now of course the restaurant business is not an easy one actually it's a very very difficult industry to operate in actually to succeed survive if we look at the numbers from binwise here what percentage of restaurants fail well approximately 60% of restaurants fail within the first year of operation and 80% fail within the first 5 years these numbers may seem offputting but the remaining 20% of restaurants go on to find long-term growth and success so of course wit she pootle already a big brand and established brand they know how to operate quite well in a profitable way this is a big Advantage for them of course the food has to be tasty as well otherwise well you'll fail just based on that now in their earlier earnings report back in October actually total revenue increased 11.3% to $2.5 billion comparable restaurant sales increased 5% operating margin was 16% that's an increase from 15.1% same year ago restaurant level operating margin was 26.3% an increase of 100 basis points and diluted earnings per share increased 23% to $11.32 so definitely the bottom line here increasing faster than the top line now if we go and look at the Outlook by the way they have also bought a bit more shares look at the Outlook 44 quarter and F year comparable restaurant sales growth in the mid to high single digit range 255 to 285 new restaurant openings that's for 2023 and for 2024 285 to 3155 new restaurant openings so despite this company being alive for quite a while and actually public for a long time as well and up 4,000 close to 5,000% since it went public and if we look at the 10 year it's up 37% despite all that this company is still trying to grow and grow quite fast and in a very much profitable way now if we look at this stock the graph here we can see that yes here as well back in mid October the stock started to go back higher and higher quite fast as the FED might have indicated that there might be some rate Cuts or more rate Cuts than expected already in 2024 so we went from around 1, $800 all the way to $2,300 which was the point where the stock was overbought since then we are going down under the 20-day moving average we are sitting right now above the 50-day moving average if you want to look at a better price entry the 200 day moving average sits at $1,985 so that's company number one of course I can understand those of you that think that this is not a buy for you too expensive I don't like it I think think in a couple of years people will be tired of eating the same thing but then again McDonald's have been alive and well for quite a long time the Big Mac still a bestseller in my opinion and chipotle has been alive and well for a long time as well serving the same type of food for a long long time so no I don't think that the food is the problem here maybe the price you're paying for the stock is again let me note down in a comments below if you enjoy these type of videos leave it a thumbs up subscribe if not we really appreciate that want to support me even further to check got the link down in the description and up in comment to get a top 10 best stocks to buy now or go to full.com investor thank you very much now company number two is a company that you can go either way with this one or its main competitor and that's low companies competitor being Home Depot now this is the full picture right now the last 10 years we can see that the stock is again same story here PE is a bit cheaper than the 10-year mean but if you look at the other metrics here EV the price to sales price to free cash flow we are a bit more expensive then if we look at a shorter time frame we are more expensive on all metrics now you might say this company still pays me a nice little dividend yes just over 2% yield more on that in a bit but first let me show you the power of share BuyBacks here again the last 10 years they've bought back 45% of their shares basically their shares have come down 45% free cash flow per share has increased ined quite a lot actually in the last couple of years here the EPS growth rate 5year growth rate sits at 8.41% yes there is a bit of weakness in the business because of the doityourself component but we're going to talk about that in a second if we look at the average analyst price Target that sits at $230 representing 6.33% upside if we look at the dividend we can see here that in the last 10 years the analyze growth was 20 % basically 10 years ago they were paying you 18 cents they're now paying you $110 if you think 10 years is too long okay last 3 years 24.1% annualized growth and last year 16.22% so definitely one of the favorites for the dividend investor that also wants some growth now if we look at what analysts are expecting for the coming fiscal years fiscal year 2024 a down year which regards to sales and EPS in fiscal year 2025 basically flattish for sales a little increase of eps by 2% but in fiscal year 2026 a full recovery should I say up 2.4% year over year with regards to sales and EPS will increase or they expect it to increase 11.5% now what exactly has happened so if we look at their latest earnings report they's say here total sales for the quarter was $2.8 billion comparable sales decreased 7.4% due to decline in di wide with your self discretionary spending partially offset by a positive Pro customer comp sales now in my opinion in 2024 we're going to see a flip I think we're going to see an increase in DIY discretionary spending of course that's just my opinion right now remains to be seen what really happens with interest rates remains to be seen what happens with macro but I think the headwinds are behind us then with regards to BuyBacks and dividends during the quar the company rep purchase approximately 7.3 million shares for $1.6 billion and it paid $642 million in dividends as for the Outlook full year 2023 total sales of approximately $86 billion which is a bit lower than what they previously guided for comparable sales expected to be down approximately 5% as compared to the prior year previously down 22 to 4% then IJ justed diluted earnings per share of approximately $13 instead of 13.2 to 13.6 and so despite all the let's say negative sentiment negative number should I say in that report the stock here as well mid to end October has rebounded from its lows right now it is sitting at the 20-day moving average the 200 day moving average doesn't sit that far from the price we're at today at $29 RSI is still pretty neutral so of course you might say yes maybe that's why it's a bit expensive since the stock has maybe run up too fast in expectations of a better year in 2024 but the business itself the fundamentals have not caught up with it just yet could be very very well true and so maybe if you want to open a position in that if you have a position dollar cross average moving that slowly look at the upcoming quarterly earnings quarterly results guidance for full year that might tell you a better story and of course do look at Home Depot as well so to conclude out of the positions for Bill Amman I think forever buys forever owns low and chipotle are the ones for me do share your thoughts down in the comments below if you enjoy this type of videos leave it a thumbs up subscribe if you have not and I'll see you all in the next one bye-bye
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