Jeremy Grantham Warns of the Super Bubble Bursting & This Is The Last Chance To Get Rich!

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Grantham은 2021년 버블이 디플레이션 국면에 들어섰고 기업이익 감소와 경기침체가 내년까지 이어질 수 있다고 본다. S&P500은 추세선(약 2500pt) 아래로 내려갈 수 있으며 미국 부채(33조달러)와 고금리가 위험 요인이다. 러셀2000은 좀비기업 비중이 높고 빅테크 7개 집중도 우려가 크다. 미국 외 선진시장(영국·일본·유럽)이 상대적으로 저평가되어 있으며, 저부채·안정적 수익의 퀄리티 기업이 유리하다는 입장이다.

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01. now let's get to a big warning from a big bear investor Jeremy Grantham says the stocks Super Bubble that he warned about previously has yet to pop the GMO co-founder sees more trouble ahead due to what he calls a dangerous mix of overvalued equities today we're delving into a crucial topic the Stark predictions made by the renowned investor Jeremy Grantham regarding a potential and imminent Market collapse we find ourselves on the precipice of a bubble ready to burst with a 70% likelihood of a market crash in the near future grantham's cautionary words carry significant weight particularly given his reputation for going against the norm and accurately predicting market bubbles he draws parallels between the current Financial climate and past Market collapses such as the 1929 Black Thursday crash that wiped out 14 billion dollar in market value in a single day and the burst of the 2000.com bubble both both of which led to Major economic downturns with the 2021 Market experiencing a 10% dip investors are understandably nervous as the US Stock Market approaches record highs once again Grantham sounds the alarm about its concerning High valuation you are well known in the investment world for uh saying that sometimes there are bubbles and Bubbles should be avoided do you think we're in a major bubble now at right now in the United States and do you think that uh the tech bubble has burst sufficiently so so that the tech bubble burst is over I think we are descending from the 2021 bubble which was one of the great Bubbles and this should be normally the deflationary Peri period the deflating period uh which is a function of uh will the earnings uh decline will profit margins decline will the economy go into recession and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and and an accompanying decline in stock prices so the recession that you're predicting is probably not going to happen in 2023 but maybe may start in 2023 in the face of a potential Market downturn investors May wonder about the implications and how to not only endure but also Prosper during such times Jeremy Grantham offers a distinctive Viewpoint advocating for the acquisition of elements designed to withstand and Thrive Amit a crash his approach revolves around intelligent asset allocation and the identification of potential opportunities even in non-declining market conditions in our video we will delve into grantham's insights providing actionable advice on safeguarding and enhancing Financial assets during periods of economic instability I I suspect that they will once again Dominate and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and and an accompanying decline Jeremy Grantham has recently issued a warning about investments in the US Stock Market he emphasized the possibility that under specific challenging conditions the S&P 500 a key indicator of the US stock market's Health could experience a significant decline potentially surpassing a 50% fall the trend line being slightly generous is 2500 and most of the great bubbles the super bubbles go below Trend and stay there for quite a while uh in the Greenspan era that tendency stopped in 2000 yes the NASDAQ came down 82% which was fairly brutal Amazon came down 92 but the Federal Reserve braced to the rescue so loudly and strongly that they stopped the decline in the S&P at trend line it only declined 50% 50% is a hell of a big decline but it was only enough to get it back then to Trend this time trend is at most 2500 and I would expect even if the Federal Reserve tries to do the same it will be hard to prevent the market from declining to that level Grantham expresses deep concerns about the US Stock Market particularly focusing on the SN p500 citing several key economic factors firstly he highlights the massive US national debt currently standing at $33 trillion as a potential destabilizing factor for the economy Grantham suggests that high debt levels could impede economic growth and Shake investor confidence additionally he points to the impact of rising interest rates in the US higher interest rates could lead to increased borrowing costs for businesses potentially reducing their profits and adversely affecting the stock market Grantham also cautions against unsustainably high yield levels indicating that current optimistic investment return expectations may be unrealistic hinting at a possible Market adjustment Grantham extends his concerns to Encompass the real estate and mortgage sectors he notes challenges in the US housing market which experienced a significant drop in home values only during the 2008 financial crisis currently the housing market faces a shortage resulting in increased demand that surpasses the available supply of properties for sale or rent this coupled with Rising mortgage rates and declining housing affordability intensifies competition for limited housing options there is a noticeable slowdown in home price growth year over years since 2022 suggesting a potential cooling down or deceleration in the housing market they only specialize in what I call the really great bubbles if you go back to 1929 to 2000 to Japan and and the housing the housing part of the housing bubble and you ask how did conditions look profit margins look great the forecast was great there was no chance of a of a recession a few months ago smart people were saying there was a 20% chance of a re recession in 3 years I mean it's quite amazing and what happens after the bubbles break is there's always a recession pretty quickly and um people never get it people never forecast it and and along with the recession Comes A Drop in profit the potential challenges in certain sectors may have broader Economic Consequences impacting both consumer confidence and financial markets this is a significant factor contributing to Jeremy grantham's deep concern about the US Stock Market shaping his currently bearish perspective here's an overview of his stance and some pointers on adjusting your investment strategy if you align with this cautious view grantham's key analysis is centered on the Russell 2000 Index comprising the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 index and primarily representing small cap stocks these stocks are often seen as a reflection of the overall US economy due to their focus on smaller domestic companies Grantham highlights a noteworthy aspect of the Russell 2000 indicating that a substantial portion cons assist of zombie companies firms struggling to cover interest payments without incurring additional debt approximately 40% of these companies are not turning profits while carrying record high debt levels in addition to his concerns about the Russell 2000 Grantham maintains a cautious view of the S&P 500 a comprehensive market index including 500 of the largest US companies he anticipates a potential decline to below 3,000 points from its current level of around 4,500 points in more severe scenarios he even considers a drop to 2,000 points as a possibility these perspectives underscore grantham's apprehension about the Market's health and inform his bearish outlook on its future trajectory despite the potential for such a drastic fall requiring a Confluence of significant problems Grantham directs attention to what he calls the Magnificent s the seven largest US tech companies by market cap including Apple Microsoft Amazon Google Nvidia Tesla and meta according to Grantham these Tech Giants currently serve as pillars supporting the US market and exerting influence globally their robust earnings and high stock market valuations partly fueled by the rise in private Equity have propelled them to achieve multi-trillion dollar market caps Grantham emphasizes that without the performance of these Tech Giants the SNP 500 would not have posted positive results for the year however he expresses concern about the extraordinary concentration of the market around these seven companies this Focus raises several questions about the future Paths of these Tech Giants gr them speculates whether they will sustain their growth trajectory maintain a significant share of the global market cap face regular challenges or enter into intense competition with each other potentially affecting their profit margins the ambiguity surrounding these prospects contributes to broader Market uncertainty in response to these concerns Grantham advises investors to look beyond the US market so if I said to you look I'm not that wealthy I have $100,000 I'd like to put it somewhere where where I'm not going to lose it what would you recommend the person just a Index Fund or something else no no I think a a global index fund that that had um most of its money outside the US and if if they were up to it I would say only invest outside the US for the time being because this this overpricing in the market is mainly a US event the markets outside the US are not particularly overpriced Grantham advises investors to explore well-developed markets such as the United Kingdom Japan and Europe where he identifies more attractively priced investment opportunities he underscores the importance of investing in Quality Companies to successfully navigate Market volatility Grantham equates quality with a company's fundamental strength and stability emphasizing that these aspects have been chronically undervalued in the market for decades drawing a comparison Grantham Likens the concept of quality to AAA rated bonds widely regarded as the safest due to their low default risk he points out that while such bonds typically perform well in bare markets they might lag in Bull markets due to their lack of excitement in contrast during bull markets investors tend to pursue more speculative and Sensational stocks like Tesla or popular meme stocks which promise quick returns however Grantham argues that in the long run quality focused companies exemplified by Coca-Cola usually deliver more consistent results breaking down grantham's concept of quality in investing he highlights the significance of low de using the analogy of lending money to a financially stable friend he notes that companies with low debt are seen as less risky better equipped to handle economic downturns without the burden of large debt repayments for instance a company with high debt company a could face Financial struggles in tough times whereas a company with little or no debt Company B is more resilient Grantham emphasizes the appeal of high stable returns as investors prefer consistent and robust performance He suggests seeking out companies with a history of delivering stable financial performance citing Coca-Cola as a prime example with its long-standing history of steady returns driven by consistent demand for its products quality companies according to Grantham are typically associated with reduced risks and less price volatility while riskier stocks may be tempting for their potential High returns they also come with greater unpredictability in contrast quality stocks offer a more stable and reassuring investment especially during Market downturns where they are less likely to plummet dramatically compared to their high-risk counterparts in essence grantham's investment philosophy revolves around focusing on a company's core fundamentals rather than getting caught up in fleeting market trends he Likens this approach to choosing a dependable well-constructed vehicle over a flashy sports car investing in highquality companies characterized by low debt consistent returns and lower volatility can lead to more reliable and sustainable long-term gains underscoring the enduring value and often over potential of quality as an investment strategy and that's it for this video let us know your thoughts in the comments down below thanks for watching till the end before you go make sure to like And subscribe and click the notification Bell to trigger YouTube's algorithm and see more of our videos on your homepage thanks for watching and see you next time for more interesting videos like this