저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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ARK의 5대 혁신 플랫폼(로봇, 에너지저장, AI, 블록체인, 멀티오믹스 시퀀싱)이 수렴하며 폭발적 성장 기회를 만든다고 주장. 비트코인은 암호자산 생태계의 핵심으로 3년 롤링 평균상 연간 상승이라 5년 투자 시계로 보유. 엔비디아는 하이퍼스케일러 자체 칩으로 점유율이 80%→40%(5년 내)로 하락 가능하나 연 20% 이상 수익률 가능성, 지분 보유 중. 테슬라는 올해 상반기 2.5만달러 저가차량과 6월 오스틴 로보택시 출시를 예상, 강세 유지.
다듬은 글
all right we're here at the Bitcoin investor conference uh in New York City Kathy we didn't plan to talk to you you just got off stage thank you for joining aliance we always appreciate your time oh my pleasure thank you for for having me of course so I I enjoyed what you were saying on stage but before we even get into some of that you early on bitcoin what's next well we're we feel we're early on the convergence among Technologies idea and you know the idea that the five major Innovation platforms around which ark created our company so robotics energy storage artificial intelligence blockchain technology broadly and multiomic sequencing in the life science space those five platforms involve 15 Technologies and they are converging and creating really explosive growth opportunities powered by AI now ai is is accelerating the rate of change in it everything and everyone you know one of our our mantras is get on the right side of change and we we give our research away because we want people to understand how their lives are going to change how their children their grandchildren how their lives are going how their grandparents lives are going to change with autonomous Mobility right um so just trying to help people understand that and then when we say powered by AI we're going to have both on from a personal point of view and a professional point of view uh agents working for us digital agents right uh this is AI at work and um as we do they they need the wherewithal to facilitate transactions and some of them are going to be microtransactions guess what's going to be involved crypto assets of all shapes and forms so uh uh we think we think uh Bitcoin has a very special place in uh the the crypto asset world and is going to be where most of the value in the crypto asset ecosystem is is going to be derived but we we think that there are going to be other ways with smart contracts so based on ethereum and and salana uh to enable some of these agents to get our work done get our shopping done uh taking the drudgery out of life nobody wants to shop for their own clothes right no I hate it I really do hate it people don't believe that I hate shopping but I hate it let's you know list speak to hear you talk about how ages my power currencies and various other assets are do you just ignore the moves in Bitcoin I mean we're seeing Bitcoin 27% off the highs does it matter to you um we keep our eye on the prize we have a five-year investment time Horizon and if you look at the threeyear rolling average of bitcoin's price movements Bitcoin appreciation it has always been up on a year-to-year basis so you take three years a aage them and then you're into the next year you average the last three that has been going up every year it has not gone down once so and if you look at uh some of the more traditional Financial indicators sharp ratios sortino take me back to my CFA books with the sharp ratios you'll see what a fabulous asset it has been over time and really most people are still maybe not at this conference but most people in the traditional Financial world are extremely underweight in in not only this technology and and asset space but also underweight are other Technologies why because we live in a world um especially since the tech and Telecom bust in in uh 2000 and even more so 2008 2009 people are scared to invest they want someone to hold their hand and that hand holding is called either passive investing or a benchmark sensitive investing and and so those benchmarks typically don't hold our names we're looking to the Future not to to the Past because if you look at the indexes those companies at the top the so-called mag six they are there because of the incredible success they have had in the past but some of these new technologies are going to be very disruptive to them just look at how apple is struggling to figure out an a a way through the AI Maes we've been watching them from year for years on the autonomous Mobility space what is the ultimate mobile device an autonomous vehicle that should have been apples I know our time is brief air you're very in demand in a conference like this but I want to get your thoughts on two stocks that you were seen as an authority on Nvidia sold off big on its earnings yes to me the numbers look good I get the concern around guidance what's your reaction to that quarter yeah yes we've um reworked our models and um we have never said Nvidia is going to be a bad stock what we have said is we think that the big bigger AI plays now that in or let's say back six months ago when it would was near at Zenith um we were saying back then you know there are companies out there people don't even understand are the most important AI plays and and share gainers in the software space and in the embodied AI space the physical space think Tesla which is robots and energy storage AI uh so we were very much focused on who Nvidia was enabling um now we're taking a closer look after this uh after this drop what we are seeing is the hyperscalers themselves are all trying to build out their own chips Andia still has the line share Even in our model we battle tested it dropping it from 80% share in gpus down to 40% in the next 5 years uh and taking its margin structure back down into the 60s the gross margins from the 70s we still get a north of 20% compound annual rate of return now um but I think many investors are just asking that question wait a minute are they going to lose share whether it's to AMD or to their their largest customers and not Intel no not Intel but Amazon has graviton and and tranium uh Google has the TPU Microsoft meta they're Dei you know they are evolving their own chips so this Market won't be nvidia's alone but all praise to Nvidia for the incredible opportunities it has created it really got the AI Revolution going and we think it's still going to play a mighty role we do own it in many of our F so Nvidia to you is still a growth stock still gross lastly Before I Let You Go Tessa I remember talking to you about Tessa three years ago out of my kitchen during the pandemic so let me reconnect with you on Tessa now sales have come under pressure overseas namely some would say it's because Elon Musk has gotten close to the president are you still bullish on Tesla given what we have seen with Tesla sales this year so obviously the economy I think one of the biggest things going on is the global economy is extremely weak and sure there are these political considerations you know but we're split right down the middle for every hater you have someone on the other side so I have no idea about that but the two things that are going to happen this year so this is not five years out Manana this year they're going to in the first half of the Year release their lowcost vehicle uh could be $25,000 uh no one except in China and the Chinese companies are not being allowed in here but no one in the EV Market in the US is going to come close to that we think that's going to drive to man the model y refresh I went to go buy exchang my model Y which is on Hardware 3 to a new hardware a new model y with Hardware 4 for full self-drive in Perfection and you know what I love about Tesla I go to the showroom he said oh no no no you don't buy that now we're putting out a whole new refresh line which by the way I knew and I don't know what I was thinking but and but there were telling customers that's the right thing to do so first thing is that lowcost car I think there's a lot of pent off demand the second thing is autonomous they're launching in Austin in June the robo taxi Robo taxi uh yes Robo taxi um in the vernacula so yes uh they're launching in June in Austin they just announced yesterday they'd like to start a ride hail service in California The Regulators are tougher there um so I now think they're going to start seeding every state and their FSD according to our calculations will be their Robo taxes will be safer in the fourth quarter than human drivers are wh MO is uh that would be uh a critical intervention every uh 700,000 mil we think they get there and they're only at 10,000 now that gives you idea of how explosive AI is right uh wh MO is at 400,000 so we think they're going to have a cheaper car and a better uh autonomous Robo taxi experence still sound bullish to me on Tesla kathywood Co CEO of AR always nice to get some time good to see you in person for a change thank you yes yes thank you so much we'll talk to you soon
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