저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
기업 선정은 성장성과 경영진(promoter/management) 중심으로 보며, 지분 매도는 경영진 집중도 저하나 밸류에이션 과열 시 진행한다고 설명. 스타트업은 현금 소진 구조를 중시해 투자에 소극적. 인터글로브(인디고) 관련 항공 요금 규제 논쟁에 대해 정부 통제 한계와 항공사 퇴출 사례를 언급. 시장 조정 노래 관련 질의에는 예측이 아니라고 답변하며 개인 투자 철학(시장 사이클 수용, 인도 장기 성장)을 강조. 고PE 종목 및 SIP 관련 질의에는 고평가 종목은 피한다는 입장 표명.
다듬은 글
Its entry and exit is that it should remain a triple A company. Triple A in the sense that you should remain focused on your work. You should stay with him until he does not get defocused and continues doing his work. When you feel that it is becoming defocused, then you can leave it and go to another company.
So I plan my exit in such a way that the focus of the management changes and I exit or the valuation becomes very high then I exit or the valuation becomes unsustainable. Sir, one should withdraw it ritually, what is your advice and I did not invest Rs 50 lakh in one go, it depends on one's nature, when I have to withdraw it, so understand, it depends on me whether I have to withdraw it completely or not, it depends on you, if you feel that it is over, understand that the company has plateaued, then you will withdraw it completely, if you feel that its growth has plateaued, you feel that no, growth is still left, but I want to withdraw some money, once I become comfortable, you will sell a little bit, sir, people must be coming to you with proposals for many investments.
So on what basis do you reject that I will not do this and I will do this. Suppose you will see the promoters. If you look at the industry and study the balance sheet, what will be your weightage? No sir, first of all let me tell you that many proposals keep coming and mine because I do not run the fund.
I don't manage people's money so I manage my own money and I'm fully invested all the time. So I am short of liquidity. So, whatever other people tell me, I dismiss each one of them out of 100 just like that, saying, brother, I do n't want to work. Consider 99 out of 100 as work because if I work in something new then I will have to sell the old one.
So I'm happy with the new one. So am I happy with the new or am I happy with the old? Because I will sell it. My question was also that if you select it then before that there will be a complete process that you are selecting it. So on what basis will you select and reject ? Sir, the most important point which I feel is most important for me is growth, the growth of the sector and the growth of the company and the second most important thing is that of the promoter because ultimately you should understand that whether you are driving a Mercedes or you are driving an Alto, the driver is more important.
If you want to go to Gandhidham from here, it will take you 45 minutes. It is going to take the same amount of time in Mercedes too, sir. It will take this much time even in Alto because you will not reach there quickly as per the traffic. It can be 1 minute here or there, in fact you will reach late in Mercedes because you will drive a little carefully and because a lot of money is invested in it, both will reach within the same time, so this is his answer that I will see that yes brother, it is okay, if the management or the driver is bad then he will hit your Mercedes.
And if the driver is good then he will also take your Alto to your destination. So, as I say at many places, I saw a movie, Sir, in that story Vidya Balan says that three things are important in life, entertainment, entertainment, so Vidya Balan told me that three things are important for you, management, management, management, you just focus on your management, sir, you do n't listen, yes, I invested in Tata startup, yes, I invested in 13-14 startups, so you invest in startups and those who invest in unlisted space, so what is your investment psychology there?
No, mine remains beans. Even in startups, my thesis remains the same: what is this company disrupting? When is this startup going to become a big company? So whenever it is made, whenever someone brings a product, there should be growth in that product. So in that also I do the same thing in that also.
In that too, management is most important, if that management is more important than the listed, then its mindset is important because there are going to be so many ups and downs, new problems are going to come every three months, every six months. Sometimes the man left me and went away. Sometimes there was a shortage of money and the product was not successful.
They have to keep evolving all the time. Their RAD should be running all the time. These should continue running 24*7. So by saying this, the acumen of management and the mindset of management cannot be achieved with just the intellect. What about his stomach? What is there in his stomach as they say ?
What does he have in his stomach? It is very important how much strength his stomach has. It is more important than money. If he quits out of fear then your entire game is over. So, in startups, there is a lot of cash burn, so I don't invest in them. I invest to earn, not to burn. [laughs] So for me, this is also a criteria as to what he is burning.
For example, suppose he has ₹25 crores and suppose he is burning ₹1 lakh. If he is burning ₹5 crore per year then that is fine. It is calculated that it will burn in the beginning. But there are many companies which have ₹.5 crore and will squander ₹.5 crore in 8 months and then will come to raise it.
So I am afraid of them. They are afraid of such companies. He should also get his money back otherwise it will be closed. I know the names of only 5, 7, 10, 150 companies that have been successful. There are thousands and millions of such companies which have become unsuccessful. People do not know about him.
So by saying this it seems that startup is very locative. But I feel that for Lemons or for all our small people, we should work in a startup after thinking a little carefully. Of course, right now the cult of startups is coming, so it is better to do it with someone who has a fund. To understand them and to grasp the company.
He has more knowledge. Sir want to understand your thoughts on interglobe aviation. InterGlobe Aviation Airlines means huge growth. And brother, I will not talk about individual stocks. Ok. So in airlines, the companies have 50% market share but no pricing power. And he is our Aviation Minister. He has also said that he will make airlines affordable.
So how will their margins be ? So some thoughts on that, your brother, see, it is like this, boss, I do n't know what will happen to the future, it is a common thing, I have a principle in life that getting married is in your hands, having a child is in God's hands, it is in his hands, otherwise what will happen in the future, first of all I don't know this, secondly, it is not 50% but 60% market share, it is 62% market share of the company you mentioned, thirdly for your information that it is not in the control of the government, controlling the fare of aviation is not in the jurisdiction of the government.
The government can do this by convincing them that you should do something in this regard so that the fare does not increase. This is not in their hands. So first of all, what is the second thing that if you see it, what will you do now? So many airlines closed down. So many airlines are grounded. Ok?
40-45 planes are probably grounded, that of Indigo which you are naming. Some planes of SPI Jet are also grounded. The price they had, Pritney Whitney, what was their problem with PNW, they don't have the capacity. Suppose if the government creates more trouble then what will the government do, what should it say?
So go by train. After a certain stage, the government cannot do much. You can do it by convincing them. But what will they do? If you buy the ticket 15 days in advance, you will get it for Rs 23,000 or Rs 4,000. If you buy it 3 days in advance, you will get the ticket for Rs 15,000. So by saying this you yourself understand what can be done in this, Indian economy will shut down if Reliance shuts down, if it goes into losses, that is why these people died, Ago Air and Jet died, that is why King Fisher Visher died, all of them, that you have to forcibly reduce the fare, this competition has reduced, so I do not think that that work could have been done by convincing them, it should not have been done by force like this, maybe good afternoon sir, good afternoon how are you sir?
Very nice, I really enjoyed it. Sir, we listen to your songs and become alert. Every one of your songs has a perfect message and the timing is also great. A very specific correction took place on June 4th. Before that you should stay awake. It was told in the song that brother, stay awake. Some correction is coming.
Brokers do not ask you why you tell everyone this in advance. Do you do something like this? No, I don't tell you in advance. The thing is that I have also become a very smart man. I have composed songs for every situation. To climb, to grow, to go sideways, to crash. So whenever I feel like it, I play that song there.
But the timing is amazing, sir. Like your song comes, there was a trend 10 years ago. Used to follow the calendar. The lion that is on the calendar depends on which month it will increase and decrease. On the calendar. Calendar Yes, different calendars like this, are you talking about King Fisher's calendar?
Kingfisher came later, but before that, brother, control your emotions. Look, everyone understood. Yes, but no sir, in reality there came a time in the calendar stock market when it was as if they were following you and you were giving alerts like this. Let us alert you that the market is also there.
No no, I don't alert you brother. Let me tell you. I feel like I am wrong in this. Let me tell you. In this alert, let me tell you that my concentration is never dull. And I want to tell you one thing. I always I also have a quote that says we are neither in a bull market nor in a bear market. We are in the stock market.
You have to understand what you are investing your money in? Are you investing money in the stock market or in a company? If you ask me, I am investing my money in India. What I am repeatedly telling you is that I am just thinking about the extra market potential. My attention remains focused solely on the inside of that thing.
So sometimes I can compromise a little bit in the quality of management within it. So whatever money I am investing, I am investing it in India. So if I am investing money in India, then the bull market and bear market that I see is not of India. That is the gift of the stock market. Bull market and bear market that is buying and selling FI.
Taking FI. FI is also selling it because it has incurred losses in Brazil. He has to quit India. He got the redemption of India Dedicated Fund. There are many reasons. There are 50 reasons. Same is the case with mutual funds. Mutual fund is the largest shareholder. His rim reddening came. I have to sell it and leave.
They keep getting something or the other throughout the day, every day, every month, saying that this fund is over and it is not worth selling it, they will sell it and go away. The function of bull market and bear market is the function of stock market. The Indian economy is not a function of the Indian economy.
There are fewer and fewer of them. So I try this little by little. I try to think like a promoter. You tell me or understand that if there is going to be a drought, then you know that during the drought a farmer sells his land and later when spring comes again in the next year he takes back his land, this does not happen, right brother, so I think from that perspective, so for me there is no difference between bull market and bear market, first of all I hold on to this saying, even when I say that the market is going to fall, I still hold on, I do not come for cash because this is the order here, this is the rule here, like day and night happiness, laughter, joy and sorrow keep going on.
Similarly, there are ups and downs in the stock market. So I am just afraid of the new investors that these new investors who have just entered, who have just come, have not fallen into that illusion. They will get confused, they will invest money and later they will say that it is a gambling den. So I put them in empty to make them one.
But I don't sell my shares. Sir, if you actually see now, all the shares are on high PE, all the donkeys, horses, lions, all are on the rise, nothing is cheap, in reality, I have found something like this, a multibagger, like that, all those sitting here will start their SIPs, as you said, the story of India, I agree with you, but the money that is going out right now, that poison is being spread, the SIP investment is going out at high valuations, my 36 months investment went to high, I had done the balance thinking that on every low high, SIP will be my contribution.
It will become average. Now it is too high, it is overvalued, so the seized players are exiting. Operators are selling. Fund Mutual Fundsc Yes. So friend, let me tell you in short what is spreading. If you feel that this is high PE. Somewhere you feel that the value is irresistible. It is SIP sir. He is a general, do n't listen to him.
Boss, SIP is a 20 year old game. Okay, right? Do not compare SIP with this. If you are asking that if you have high value shares then you should stop SIP. If you want to ask this, no sir. So I say it should not be stopped. SIP is a different ball game. Here we talk about direct investing. If you continue SIP, you will get more benefits but you will contribute more to the higher price.
So it is not necessary that the person to whom you are giving SIP will be buying high value shares with your money. that's not necessary. So having high PE shares is a different thing. And in which mutual fund should you invest is another matter. As far as I understand, it is inside. And if there are high PE shares like 50, 60, 100, then do not invest in them.
Like I don't invest. Like I did not invest in defense. I was left behind. Defence shares all tripled and quadrupled. So I have no regrets about the fact that I ate this with something else. I always say, brother, understand that you get protein by eating ladyfinger. I get protein by eating fish. You stay happy in Veg.
I am happy with non-veg. Both are maintaining the ecosystem on Earth. Non- vegetarians are also maintaining the ecosystem on earth. So after saying this, look at yourself. He should not try to gauge the market too much. It seems like this to me. You could not even understand your wife. How will you understand the market, friend?
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