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인플레이션 재가속 신호(중고차 가격 반등, 목재 가격 재상승, 10년물 기대인플레이션 상승, 공급망 악화)를 근거로 인플레 재부각을 주장. 이더리움 추가 매수 언급, 수요일 이벤트 앞 암호화폐 반등 가능성 제시. 시장의 인플레 기대 상승을 강조.
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hey folk inflation higher inflation that we're seeing and some of the latest inflection points in inflation and inflation expectations i do think what you're going to see here is potentially a little bit of a lead into what we might expect to see wednesday and as a result it's possible that we're going to see a little bit of a bump in crypto pricing we'll see i did increase my position in ethereum just yesterday uh when we were sitting around the high 24 or sorry 34 level in ethereum and i'm not opposed to adding a little bit more with cash that i just have on the sidelines sitting in my coinbase account as as we see some of these catalysts draw near but of course wednesday's gonna be a big day so anyway let's get into some of the sort of prefaces that we're seeing to what's coming wednesday right now take a look at this so we've been thinking that used car prices would inflict downwards and and they have but they started coming up again now they didn't originally go back to their may pricing when we last looked at this manheim vehicle index which is an index that tracks used car prices as of uh last week is when we last looked at this index and we thought okay all right so there's an inflection back to the upside in the manheim used vehicle index but that's okay you know so it came back up a little bit it's not going to keep going is it well look at the look at the chart right now so here's your may pricing this was sort of that inflection point to the downside in the shelf we hit the used vehicle index as of today is now actually a chunk above where we were in may in may we had a reading of two of three coming in now at almost 205 which is incredible because we were expecting this to rotate to the downside now right now that is only a percent but the chart gives us an idea of of potentially this inflection point again in the market where we do see uh prices that that came down temporarily as expected but then as not expected uh are or skyrocketing back up and that's not good now let's take a look at lumber just as another example here ta yeah take a look at this wow uh the lbs now uh back over 700 almost back to 725 this is lumber if we zoom out to the sixth month we'll see this massive plummet in lumber prices but it's really not until when you go out to a year or even the five year chart that you see this incredible spike here with the pandemic yeah the pandemic uh i would say let's see recession let's see if we can find it so recession's right here where my mouse is where we went from lumber prices of about 446 down to about 300.
lumber prices then proceeded to skyrocket uh excessively to about almost 1600 and that has substantially fallen since in the last six months here but which was just drop was expected the drop is definitely expected however what again is not expected is the fact that look at the last month here folks we've been straight up in lumber prices again and this is the danger that we're facing right now is we're facing this this scenario where golly we thought prices were going to go down they started going down everything started suggesting that uh central bankers were right inflation was temporary uh everything was going to be transitory uh the re there were going to be two big sort of bouts of inflation there was going to be one when we compared base effects that was going to be uh april may june sort of data that came in and that's comparing to the whole of the prior year to see a year-over-year boost in numbers and then the second was going to be the reopening that we would see a surge in spending at reopening but then we would see a subsequent slowdown and we actually did we saw a surge in spending this summer and then as we started seeing delta come back we actually saw a slowdown in consumer mobility in in spending consumer spending consumer confidence everything really rotated back to the dark side around the end of august uh how uh the end of july to the end of august however as delta has vastly dissipated we're again seeing somewhat of a resurgence and now we're seeing flight cancellations uh supply chains stressed more than ever before things aren't getting better and some in many cases they're getting worse shipping time frames and freight time frames are worse than expected you look at the port of los angeles usually has one docked uh freight ship now has uh somewhere around 80 docked freight chips waiting to be unloaded all of these things are driving prices up and again we're seeing this inflection here in not just lumber but in the used vehicle index aluminums also at an all-time high right now it's somewhat unbelievable how persistent the inflationary powers have been and uh earnings are going to reflect pain because of this and i think this is why you are starting to get some more downgrades as well before we head into the earnings cycle as uh institutions try to sort of call the uh the inflection to the downside so they can show that oh we're right but anyway uh so uh yeah it's it's it's gonna be a big issue that we're gonna have to pay attention to or the inflationary fears now i will say the the markets are surprisingly resilient in how they're pricing inflation if we go to the 10-year treasury bond and we look for rates we can oftentimes see this as a little bit of a forecast of what the market thinks inflation is going to do and what was very interesting was we spent some time kind of stuck at about 150 to 155 and there were a lot of forecasters suggesting okay we're not going to go back to that 172 or whatever that we had previously uh we're just going to level out by one five to one five five and that always seems like it's an argument of forecasters is that oh if things are going wrong don't worry it's it's uh it's just leveling out it's just temporary yeah well now we're at 1.61 let's see what the 10-year break even is doing 10-year break even treasury rate so 10-year break even nice way to to also look at what's happening in terms of inflation expectations and basically as the sin flex up inflation expectations are going up so take a look at this right here you've been pretty flat here on the bond market uh really from april through about september you've been relatively flat with the exception of a little pop here in may and of course we're going into the beginning of the year we saw a nice rise here in the 10-year break-even rates we're finally starting to see an inflection up again in in how this is being priced and when you see it's a little easier to see it here you can kind of see this little trajectory here since about september 22nd where the 10-year break even's moving up again and if i zoom in a little bit more recently here since the 22nd you could really see this nice move to the upside here and again this is the and here's may and again this is the 10 year break even which tends to be a little bit of a forecast for what the market believes inflation is going to do and we are getting a very similar may ask style push which it's worth noting that in may we had some pain uh in in the markets some stocks dramatically oversold uh for example take uh take a company like end phase that in may sold down to as low as about 108 120 as opposed to to really trading mostly sideways around that 150 is where we've kind of been and uh and and this was actually such a low sell-off that you had uh the company itself buying a chairs back as i saw it as uh relatively oversold so which ended up of course being a wise play but uh look it's it's everything and and now folks are even suggesting that biden's vaccine mandates for companies with over 100 employees are going to lead to even more worker shortages more labor shortages a lower labor force participation rate and more service based price inflation which one of the big fears for inflation is service based pricing so we'll have to keep an eye on that as well service based pricing and rents are going to be two of major major factors that uh that lead inflation to potentially inflect up plus of course uh some of our ogs like car prices which we've seen car prices now move up here's actually a comment we'll throw it up on screen here this is an interesting comment it's sort of uh piggybacks off of my talk about a lot of folks getting their flights cancelled this weekend southwest having about 70 uh 20 sorry 27 of their flights canceled on on this sick out movement where people are calling in sick in protest to vaccine mandates here's a comment both of my parents work for the airlines i think it's funny if people in the industry say the airlines american delta and regional air traffic controllers are planning more sick outs before they're laid off for no vaccines half of pilots are ex-military something to think about yeah that's incredible so uh let's see here here's uh so for example some other comments here in the chat i would quit my job before i ceded to a vaccine mandate
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