저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
주간 노동시장 회복과 기업이익 증가로 경기가 견조하며 AI·반도체 조정은 매수 기회라고 봄. 연준 금리인상은 워시 의장의 동결 기조로 과도하게 반영됐다고 주장. 메모리(DRAM) 가격 급등으로 반도체 기업 가격결정력 강세, 이란 관련 유가는 90~100달러 박스권 전망. AI 주식 급락 시 경기침체 리스크를 지적하며 전반적으로 낙관적 입장.
다듬은 글
Everyone need Kevin. Wow, we have some bullish reporting actually coming out of this weekend, which I was surprised by. I thought after Friday sell-off, we would have gotten a lot of institutions that would have started bagging on the market. And I remember saying my video that we posted Friday night, which was like, you know, 5:00 a.m.
Saturday morning. Thanks jet lag in Copenhagen. I'm like, "No, this is this is actually a good thing. This this is an opportunity. You like this is a buy the dip opportunity. You're probably going to see some of that buying early on Monday as a lot of leverage gets wiped out basically same day. That's one of the things about margin and people getting margin called is the debt and the leverage DTF liquidations, they happen same day.
It happens really fast. But some of the pieces that I've been reading just went over to Spain here, a little hop and a skip over. And some of the institutional pieces I was reading on my way over here were like this and I thought this was actually incredible. Jobs follows profits, right? We know that.
There's a lag to the labor market. This is why actually a lot of people worry that the labor market could be a recessionary indicator because the labor market takes so long to decay. But that's why it's so weird that the labor market decayed into December and now for the last four or five months, it's actually been coming out of that decay.
But it's a great line. Listen to this. Jobs follows profits. Profits began their upswing last summer and then accelerated in Q1 of this year and now, accounting for the usual lag, the economy is back to hiring. Last year's drop in hiring tied was tied to profits, not deportations, says TS Lombard. And they say that looking at May payrolls, there is an indication of AI's impact, mostly because we see some of that lower hiring in like finance and professional and banking, right?
That's where you're getting more of the automation. But overall, we see relatively broad-based hiring. They also believe that Kevin Warsh can convince the FOMC not to hike. Now, a few things to to consolidate there. Some people are saying the jobs report only did well because hiring coming up for the World Cup, but we are now at 5 months of a trend up.
This is more than just like some temporary hiring because of an event. Uh this has been a pretty strong trend up so far and seems to be continuing. I do, however, agree that Kevin Warsh will be an anchor at keeping rates down, which I actually think creates an upside potential catalyst for the stock market.
In fact, if we look right here, this is the These are the odds of a rate hike. 29% chance we stay stable, and then we are at over a 71% chance of a hike by the end of the year. Uh and then I have one more to show you here. Uh so, basically, we're pricing in you know, we're pricing in essentially a rate hike this year.
I don't think it's going to happen. I think Warsh is going to sandbag, wait for inflation to roll over, right? And then if we jump on into this chart, uh we can see the odds of us staying stable only sits at 13.4%, which is basically like fully pricing in at least one rate hike. But, we're actually over here pricing in two or three rate hikes uh with uh you know, somewhere around a 16 to 30% chance.
Actually, cumulative, probably closer to about a 45% chance there of two rate hikes, which is unfortunate, but anyway, I actually think that creates an opportunity. See, because markets are pricing in those rate hikes, what we're finding is the 10-2 yield curve, remember we used to talk about it all the time?
Uh that critical level is like 0.55. You don't want to exceed that long. We briefly exceeded it to like 0.7, but we've rejected off of that during the tariff warfare. We rejected again this time, which is great. But, what's actually really remarkable is you're seeing the yield curve flatten out. So, people have been asking, "Kevin, can you explain why the yield curve would be flattening?" Well, it's obviously because over this weekend we heard that uh the ticker Marvell is getting included in the S&P 500 and the stock's back up again 12 freaking percent.
Let's go. Which you know what that means? Use coupon code Marvell over at meetkevin.com to . And baby, we bought the dip today. So, if you're not part of the notifications, make sure you join. Okay? Once you get lifetime access. Now, why actually is the 10-2 falling? The 10-2, in my opinion, is falling because markets are pricing in higher chances that we're going to have higher rates for longer.
So, people are selling the 10-year and the 2-year. But, if they were selling them equally, you wouldn't see a move in the 10-2. So, what's actually likely happening is people are finally capitulating on the 10-year. They're like, "All right. This is going to take years to go down. Let's just sell more of the 10 than we're selling the 2." And that's why we're seeing that curve flattening, which is actually economically bullish because you're moving in the opposite direction of recession, which is that you have the curve going up.
It is flattening. It is going down. Opposite of a recession fear, which is which is actually really good. [snorts] Uh over the weekend as well, I was looking for more red flags on anything to indicate that the AI bubble has popped. Uh I'm asking in our community chat, which you're welcome to join as well.
You could join for free if you download the Meet Kevin app. There's a community page you could click on and you could join our discussion in there if you want. It's totally free. You get the daily wealth for free as well. Some of the data points that I put in there you get for free. And then, of course, if you're a course member, that's where you get your trade alerts, your alpha report, and otherwise.
Uh that, again, use that coupon code Marvell. We got that expiration coming up. Uh now, Citadel Securities argues that there is a risk rates are going to have to rise soon. This is going to be a fight. There are going to be a lot of people voting for rate hikes at the FOMC. I don't think we are going to have a consensus hold.
I do think there's going to be a push for rates to move up, but I don't think a majority will go for rate hikes. I think uh Warsh and Powell will actually aim for that stability. Powell, who's staying obviously, has in my opinion a fear of repeating 1970s. And he'll be able to round up the others to just stay stable and keep that strong message.
Nope, everything's fine. We've done well. Now, in fairness, something else to talk about is DRAM pricing and memory, right? Your Micron and your Sandisk and that. Over the last 75 years, every 5 years, we tend to see DRAM prices decline by a factor of 10. Which means if it's $100, it's $10 after 5 years.
And after 5 more years, it's $1. That is historically what we have seen for the last 70 years on memory prices. That goes all the way back to 1957, which I didn't even realize they had memory back then, but apparently they do. Well, that has had this insane breakout. Look at that breakout on DRAM pricing.
This is where we're seeing that year-over-year, you know, 6 to 7 X on DRAM pricing. It's pretty remarkable. That is very unusual. It is probably going to lead to some more pain, especially in in the smartphone market. That's why we also saw ARM give that warning in their forecast, though they've since rebounded quite a lot and actually even accelerated.
Smartphones, PCs probably get hurt there. Servers don't care. They will pay the price to get their hands on memory. And that's what's given these companies a lot of pricing power right now. Typically very cyclical. I did see some institutions say that ARK K and MicroStrategy are the degen crowd. That is where you can go to see momentum, but they actually said that those have done worse than high-profit companies, which to them was actually a sign of stability.
I think that was Goldman that wrote that. Uh which I kind of agree with. Uh so, not bad. In addition to that, we had some comments on oil. Obviously, what's going on in Iran is a little bit challenging. And then we had comments from Donald Trump on, you know, buying out AI stocks, right? So, let's break this down a little bit.
On Iran, we had this tit-for-tat. Iran sends missiles, especially to Haifa. Then you get Iran that or Israel that counterattacks and strikes a petrochemical facility in Iran. Donald Trump is like, "Guys, guys, can we all just get along?" And he's verbally like, "Can everybody just stop?" Pakistani mediators are freaking out trying to get everybody to stop and chill.
Iran's like, "All right, all right, we're done." Trump is like, "You guys stop." Israel's like, "All right, all right, we're done, but we're going to keep fighting in Lebanon." This problem's just going to keep going on. And a lot of folks are are looking at the oil market and they're like, "Why is oil not higher?" And I think the correct read here from this was definitely from Goldman Sachs is that the market has essentially priced in the inventory depletion argument and delayed rebuilding argument for oil.
And the market's essentially good with the oil situation right now despite the fact that Hormuz could remain closed for a long time. That, you know, if things get better, great, oil can fall. But other than that, we might be in a stable trading range between 90 and 100 on oil. I happen to agree with that.
I also happen to agree that the biggest risk to the stock market or the overall economy is not oil, it's the stock market. Uh and that's where there are some estimates that if AI stocks move up 55%, all other stocks could be up about 20%. I keep this side cover Jack if you don't mind because of the wind.
Uh shoutout to meet Jack over here. He's about to post a a video on his channel. His video's going to be called coupon code expiring tonight. His coupon code more value. He's He's not even responding. He's being so nice. No, he's going to post a video on a place in Copenhagen, which was pretty cool.
You should check it out. Meet Jack is his channel. Uh anyway, so upside AI stocks up 55, other stocks up 20%, so overall average up 30. Baseline, AI and other stocks grow in line with baseline, so maybe closer to 20% each. There's a bearish downside though, and this would be the recessionary impact where you see AI stocks down 40%, other stocks down 15, so a lot less.
And because that ends up destroying the wealth effect of what is driving GDP right now, mega caps and the top quartile or quintile of spenders, you know, whose wealth would decline if AI stocks decline, we would probably fall into recession. In fact, this is interesting. You get See this chart right here.
Contribution of wealth effects quarter over quarter annualized PC growth. Basically, who's contributing to personal consumption expenditures growth, so the growth in spending, right? Who's contributing? Well, it's mostly just that top quintile, top fifth. Actually, it looks like they're here at fourths, fourth, third, second, but No, these are quintiles.
These are quintiles. So, it's pretty much only the top 20% that are really driving spending here. And I wrote over here, this is probably why people missed COVID, because every single quintile of income was actually contributing to consumption. Uh which, you know, consumption growth. Right now, all the other categories are basically not contributing anything.
Though they're not, at least from what we could tell in this chart, they're not projected to be negative in 2027. Q4 2026 is expected to see some categories like the fourth and third quintiles in the negative and then rebound into 2027. I thought that was interesting. Uh next, we have commentary here that we're not seeing flow into meme stocks.
We are seeing money flowing into profitable companies. Households have added to their plate in profitable companies, which is obviously going to be bullish. This was also really bullish in my opinion. Yeah. It is This was surprising to me, because we have seen a compression in private credit lending available availability, banking credit for private credit.
And that's usually bad. When credit compresses, you usually get recessionary dynamics that follow. But, that's only for private credit, because right now GDP is growing at nominal GDP, so not including inflation, is growing at about 5%. Bank lending is growing at 7%. When bank lending exceeds GDP, you tend to get even more GDP growth, which is great.
On top of that, we expect that profits are going to continue growing at companies, which again reiterates even more hiring. Uh which is again very broad-based, with the exception of finance, insurance, business and professional services, all relatively affected by AI. So, broadly relatively bullish here.
Again, yes, problems with Iran uh and uh or moves, those will remain a problem. Donald Trump basically coming out to save the stock market though by arguing, "Oh, we might take stakes in AI companies." That's really cuz he can't handle red day. Donald Trump evaluates his own job performance based on how the stock market is moving.
And so, there's a red day, expect the Trump put to come save your butt. both short-term, medium-term, I guess not both, all three, and long-term, make sure you join over at mekevin.com. We had a really good alpha report this morning that I think broke out exactly what to expect for the day, and so far it is looking really solid.
Thank you so much for being here. We'll have another alpha report tomorrow. Take advantage of coupon code Barbell before the code expires. We are aligning the expiration of that with a release to our app, so that uh will either be later today or tomorrow. Shouldn't be any later than Wednesday. Depends on when Apple approves that update. All right, folks, thanks .
Comments 0