저자: InvestingwithTom · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거가 2001~2004년 테네코(Tenneco) 주식과 채권에 투자해 약 1000만 달러를 약 8000만 달러로 불린 사례를 분석한 영상이다. 핵심 결론: 멍거의 테네코 투자는 주식(중간~고위험, 고수익)과 채권(저위험, 고수익)을 병행한 가치투자 사례로, 과거 성과 설명이며 현재 종목에 대한 예측은 없다. 투자 배경: 멍거는 50년간 Barron's의 종목 추천을 읽다가 테네코를 발견했고, 약 2시간 조사 후 투자했다. 테네코는 자동차 부품(Monroe 쇼크업소버 등) 제조사다. 기업 상황: 1990년대 EBITDA 3~4억 달러, 순이익 2.5~3억 달러였으나 2000년대 초 자동차 업황 악화로 적자, 부채 누적, 자기자본 마이너스, 파산 우려가 컸다. 당시 시가총액 약 8000만 달러, 기업가치(EV) 약 16억 달러, 부채 약 15.2억 달러로 레버리지가 매우 높았다. 주식 논리: 주가 약 1달러. EBITDA가 3~4억 달러로 회복되고 EV/EBITDA 6.5배가 적용되면 주가는 10~27달러 수준이 가능하다는 계산이다. 리스크는 파산 시 주주 가치 0이다. 채권 논리: 액면 이자율 11.375%(2009년 만기)인 채권을 액면가의 약 35센트에 매입. 정상화 시 액면가 회복 및 이자 수익, 파산 시에도 채권자 우선순위로 회수 가능성이 있어 리스크가 낮다고 평가했다. 결과(영상 기준): 주식은 약 1달러에서 15달러로 15배 수익 후 매도, 채권은 35센트에서 약 1.07달러로 회복. 전체 약 1000만 달러가 약 8000만 달러로 증가했다. 이 자금은 이후 Li Lu의 중국 펀드에 투자되어 약 4~5억 달러로 불어난 것으로 설명된다. 조건/리스크: 과거 사례이며, 자동차 업황 회복과 부채 상환 능력이 전제였다. 영상은 멍거의 자산 대비 비중(약 1/4)을 언급하며 집중투자의 중요성을 강조했다. 출연자 전망: 현재 시장이나 대상 종목에 대한 향후 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 진행자는 멍거의 인내와 결단력을 높이 평가하고, 훌륭한 투자 기회는 드물며 발견 시 과감히 실행해야 한다는 멍거의 철학을 소개했다.
다듬은 글
charlie munger for many decades at this point has been known as the right hand man at birch hathaway 2 warren buffett one of the richest most famous investors of all time arguably the greatest to ever do it but charlie munger is a phenomenal investor in his own right he had his own investment partnership through the 1960s and 70s which returned about 19.8 percent per year and that period of time actually included a massive stock market crash during the early 1970s now in this video we're going to be talking through one of charlie munger's uh phenomenal investments that was made in the early 2000s in his words he made around 80 million dollars with virtually no risk i found one investment opportunity in parents other which i made about 80 million dollars with almost no risk we're going to go back and analyze the investment that charlie munger made in a company called teneco at that time and go through all of the things that manga was looking at in the early 2000s and how that investment played out now before we get into that i have to give a shout out to two resources the first one is a youtube clip of charlie munger himself uploaded to youtube by infinite dreams publishing there will be a link down in the description to that video and the second thing is a blog post slash article from broken leg investing now broken leg investing also analyzed this investment that we're going to go through today and a lot of the numbers used in this video come from that article so with all that said let's get into this investment uh this phenomenally profitable investment from charlie munger now the investment that we're going to talk about today took place from around 2001 until about 2003 2004 sort of time and uh that investment was in a company by the name of teneco an auto parts manufacturer and it's really interesting how manga actually came across this investment idea in the first place uh in his own words he had been reading barons for 50 years and every edition of barons there are a certain number of stock tips and after 50 years after seeing that baron suggested that you know this was a cheap stock he did some digging and actually made an investment now to have the patience to read a whole lot of stock tips for 50 years and then suddenly put money to work in an auto parts company after all that time after only about two hours of research by the way is phenomenal uh displays extreme patience but also extreme decisiveness when the right opportunity does come up so that is how tennico got onto charlie munger's radar in terms of the company itself teneco like i said was an auto parts manufacturer they own a few different brands probably the monroe shock absorber being the most well known and charlie munger did have a little bit of experience in this area he knew that car parts like the monroe shock absorber were very sticky there were a lot of old cars that were highly dependent on these parts and it allowed him to get his head around the business relatively quickly now through the 1990s teneco was quite a profitable business they produced ebitda of 300 400 million dollars a year they produce net income of 250 to 300 million dollars a year but by the late 90s and early 2000s the business was facing headwinds although they had some of these brands within their business that these old cars classic cars were quite reliant on uh the auto parts business is cyclical it does go through ups and downs and they went through some serious downs through the early 2000s to the point where they were losing a lot of money they were accumulating more and more debt shareholders equity went negative and there were a lot of fears in the market about teneco actually going bankrupt now manga after doing some digging on teneco had other ideas he did not have the same fears of bankruptcy that the general market did but what he did was something really really interesting which actually protected his downside even if the stock did go bankrupt now manga did that by investing in teneco in two different ways firstly he just straight up bought the stock and we'll go through some of the numbers and behind that investment shortly and the second thing he did was he actually bought the bonds in teneco he bought some of the debts and as we'll talk through later that was a way that he could protect his downside even if the business went bankrupt now charlie munger as you may already know is a value investor and he is not out there in the stock market looking for low risk low return investments or high risk high return investments he is looking for low risk and high return this unique combination that value investors seek basically by paying a price well below the intrinsic value of those assets so firstly let's take that thinking and look at the investment in the stock of tenneco now in my mind the stock investment that manga made in teneco is probably a medium to high risk investment actually but it had an extremely high reward if things did work out now the bonds are much lower risk and still had a high reward which we'll get to shortly but first let's talk through the stock itself now through the 90s when tenneco's business was performing really really well the stock was trading at about fifty dollars a share now when manga first made his investment into tenneco the stock had crashed very very dramatically all the way down to about one dollar per share and within that the business of teneco had an enterprise value of about 1.6 billion dollars now if you're not familiar with enterprise value basically uh the way i like to think about this is what is the earnings power of the assets of this company worth in this case that was about 1.6 billion dollars for teneco now you may not pay that exact price when you invest in the business because there's things like debt in the business there's things like cash and that may mean that you pay a little bit more or a little bit less than the enterprise value for that company now in the case of teneco although the market was valuing the earnings power of those assets of 1.6 billion dollars they had 1.52 billion dollars in debt and that meant that you ended up with a very highly leveraged stock with a market cap of only 80 million dollars now what that means is that we have an enterprise value and debt that are almost the same number uh we have a thin slice of equity at 80 million dollars and what that basically tells us is that the market cap or the stock of teneco is very highly levered to that enterprise value price so if the earnings power of the assets goes up a little bit and people value those assets slightly higher we're going to get a very highly leveraged return because of all the debt that is built into teneco now at that time auto parts companies were typically valued at an ev2 ebitda multiple of about 6.5 now uh regular viewers of the channel may know that that is also the aquireus multiple uh a 6.5 acquires multiple is very very cheap for many types of businesses so it's certainly not unrealistic to see a 6.5 multiple put on the enterprise again we take off the debt and then we end up with a market cap or what we should pay for that business but the maths basically works out like this so if teneco could restore its earnings power its ebitda production at least to around 300 to 400 million dollars that would put the enterprise value of tenneco back up to about 1.95 to 2.6 billion dollars now we still obviously have that 1.52 billion of debt built in but we get a highly leveraged stock and upside if that earnings power does return and in this case um that would put the market cap anywhere from about 430 million right up to about 1.08 billion uh in stock price terms that could take the stock from a dollar to as high as 10 to 27 dollars if tinaco could return its earnings power to normal so right there even though manga is investing in a stock with a lot of debt and what on the surface of things might look like a fair bit of downside we have dramatic upside of earnings power does return to anywhere near normal anywhere from 10 to 27 times returns if ebitda gets back on track so overall the stock is a medium to high risk investment with an extremely high return so now let's look at the bond investment now in my mind and i think really in charlie munger's mind as well the bonds are a almost zero risk investment and extremely low risk investment which still has a high return nowhere near as high as the stock that we just spoke about but this is where munger put a fair chunk of this investment money towards as well so let's talk through the bonds while the bonds were issued at an eleven and three-eighths percent yield maturing in 2009.
basically what that means is for every hundred dollars of debt that the debt holder has issued to teneco they would expect to get around 11 and 37 cents uh an interest each year and then they would have all of their principal paid back in 2009. now if we go through to when charlie munger was looking at this investment uh there were a lot of fears that teneco were gonna go bankrupt and you could actually buy this debt for 35 cents on the dollar and that is exactly what charlie munger did now when charlie manga bought those bonds teneco was still paying the 11 or so interest on that debt and they were paying the 11 or so interest rate on the original amount on the full dollar value of that debt the par value of the debt now since munga had acquired that debt for only 35 cents on the dollar the interest rate that he was effectively getting paid on his purchase price was more like 33 so over the two or three years that he held those bonds he was earning 33 a year returns uh and interest on the bonds that he'd acquired now let's look at the possible outcomes for this bond investment firstly um if everything goes really well and teneco returns to its normal earning power and the fears of bankruptcy go away basically these bonds are worth par the 35 cents is going to go back up to a dollar uh manga is going to get his 33 interest per year in the meantime and when it goes back to a dollar he's going to get roughly a 3x return on that investment because he's got these bonds going from 35 cents back up to a dollar now if things don't work out well for tenneco um charlie munger has bought these bonds at such a distressed price that him being a debt holder in the business he's actually likely to get some equity in a potentially restructured teneco after a chapter 11 bankruptcy and this is the main reason why i think charlie munger is really saying that this tentacle investment had basically no risk if things went back to normal his 35 cents would turn into a dollar with him receiving a lot of interest in the meantime and if things went bankrupt and even if the bondholders took quite a substantial haircut on their full dollar of debt he's bought it at such a substantial discount that he's likely to still get his money back if not even make a little bit of money even through a chapter 11 bankruptcy because what happens in a bankruptcy is that stockholders go to zero and the debt holders are first in line to try and get some money back out of the assets of that business so there are the two investments that manga made in teneco the first one is the stock medium to high risk extremely high reward if things work out well uh but a potential of going to zero if things uh go bankrupt in that in that stock um but then he also had the bonds and the bonds were still a pretty high upside as much as a 3x plus two years worth of 33 interest per year um and downside was basically zero in the mind of charlie munger it was almost a no risk investment as he put it in the bonds manga bought a little bit of both he bought both the stock and the bonds and he waited a couple of years to see how it panned out so how did it work out well uh by about 2004 teneco had in fact returned to a more typical earnings power their uh ebitda went back up to around 350 million dollars uh they were valued at about that 6.5 times acquirers multiple and that translated into about a 15 stock price for tenneco munga had gotten a 15x he went from one dollar per share through to 15 per share at which time he sold now the stock actually continued onwards over the subsequent years to about 30 or 40 this year which manga did not capture um but still he got a 15x in two or three years on that stock now in terms of the debt or the bonds that manga held those bonds got re-rated as well so he um collected his 33 a year interest for a couple of years the bonds went back up to par and even traded at a slight premium so they went from 35 cents on the dollar through to about a dollar seven uh before teneco actually repurchased those bonds and went and sought cheaper financing elsewhere so overall things worked out extremely well and charlie munger was able to translate a 10 million dollar initial investment through to around an 80 million dollar uh final exit from teneco within about two or three years just an amazing investment return now that's not quite the end of the story there is one more thing that charlie munger did with this 80 million dollars which is really interesting he shipped that 80 million dollars off to lilu who was a very well known value investor and put it in his chinese investment fund lilu is the only fund manager that charlie munger has ever put money with and he's actually turned that 80 million dollars into about four or 500 million dollars now if we do a quick google search on charlie munger's net worth and of course these net worth google searches are a little bit of a guess often times but this tells us that charlie munger is worth approximately around 1.7 billion dollars now some basic maths tells us that this one investment decision to put 10 million dollars into tenneco and then the second decision to put those profits uh into lilu's fund have resulted in about over a quarter of charlie munger's entire net worth coming from these two decisions now charlie tells us all the time that great investment opportunities are rare and when they come along you have to jump on them aggressively do the work understand the risks and put the money to work and see how it plays out and that is exactly what he's done with this technical investment it's a phenomenal story that i absolutely love and i've been wanting to share it on the channel for some time so if you did enjoy the video i would really appreciate you hitting like and also subscribing to the channel if you haven't already but that's all from me today and i will see you in the next one cheers
Comments 0