저자: Dividendology채널진행자 · 외국인
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브로드컴은 4분기 실적 호조(매출 +51.2%, AI 매출 비중 35%, 애플 AI 서버칩 딜)로 주가가 급등. 1분기 매출 가이던스 상향(146억 달러). 배당 11.3% 인상 예정, 10년 배당 성장률 34%. 주당순이익 감소는 R&D 확대와 신주 발행 때문이며 우려하지 않음. 역DCF상 시장은 연 20.3% 잉여현금흐름 성장을 반영 중이나 AI 성장 감안 시 가능하다고 봄. 장기 보유 입장 유지.
다듬은 글
one of my favorite dividend growth stocks broadcom is up a massive 20.5% on the day after releasing their latest quarters earns report now look at this company in the past year they're now up over 103% and if we look at them year to date up over 95% and actually if we look at my broad composition on my growth chart you can see this is my biggest winner I'm now up 328 on this position so let's dig into this most recent earnings report and see what's going on with the company if we come over here we can see Q4 non-gaap earnings per share came in at $142 cents which was a Beat by about 3 cents so a slight beat and revenue was in line with expectations coming at 14.06 billion but a lot of people don't realize just how fast this company's growing Revenue was up 51.2% year-over-year so let's take a step back and put this into perspective if we jump over to my profitability sheet you can see here I've already plugged in avgo broadcom so the data is loaded in but we come over here again 2024 Revenue came in at 51.5 billion and look at where it was in 2023 35.8 billion so we're talking about a massive jump up from a company that's already been rapidly growing Revenue over the past decade they have a 10year revenue kager of 28.3% so yes massive growth but a lot of people are arguing this was expected so what's up with the huge jump up in the share price for the company well there is a few good reasons let me show you first off you have to understand how broadcom makes money they have two main Revenue segments they have semiconductor Solutions and then infrastructure software and historically speaking semiconductor Solutions has been the majority of this company's revenue and if we look at revenue from semiconductor Solutions over the past few quarters we can see yes it's continuing to grow but look at revenue from infrastructure software in 2024 Q4 of 20123 Revenue in millions was 1,969 and lower it was in fiscal quarter 4 of 2024 5,824 so what was up with a huge jump up in infrastructure software and this boils down to broadcom's AI Journey obviously this is a market that's exploding lots of Chip companies have rapidly grown in price over the past year and at the end of 2023 broadcom was projecting AI Revenue as a percent of the semiconductor Solutions Revenue to be around 25% this was their target well guess where they ended up for the year they ended up at 35% AI Revenue as a percent of semiconductor Solutions was again 35% way higher than what they were expecting for 2024 but the good news doesn't just stop there earlier this week we got news about an artificial intelligent server chip deal between Apple and broadcom and this AI server chip is projected to be rolled out in a little more than a year at some point in 2026 so very very soon and keep in mind if Apple uses just 1% of its revenues on this chip for broadcom that amount to nearly 4 billion in additional revenue for broadcom so this deal really has the ability to move the needle for broadcom we're talking about one of the biggest companies in the world partnering with them and then to add on to all this good news they also gave us some guidance for the first quarter of 2025 they gave us Revenue guidance of 14.6 billion which was an increase versus 14.06 billion expected so they increased guidance now if we put this into perspective if we jump over to my quarterly data here's Revenue over the past few quarter since 2013 we can see the past few quarters have been far higher than what we've already seen like we touched on and what they just told us as forward looking guidance we'll put first quarter Revenue close to around right here closer to around 15 billion again higher than expectations now when you look at broadcom's earnings report it's important you have a full understanding of what's going on within the company we can see Q4 non-gaap earnings per share came in at $14 2 C but if we jump back over to our stock screener page come up here and plug in stock ticker avgo and hit enter all this data will load in and again like always you can download any of my spreadsheets and also get access to the ticker data add-on and Google Sheets that allows you to automatically import stock Financial straight into your spreadsheet by heading over to Ticker dat.com at the link in the description but if we come over here and look at earnings per share we can actually see in 2024 it was significantly lower than it was in 2021 2022 and 2023 so is that something to be concerned about and the answer is actually definitely know let me show you why first off if we come over here and look at revenue for share obviously like we've already mentioned revenue is growing at a really high rate and it's expected to continue to grow at a high rate free cash flow per share continue to grow now in 2024 it was actually slightly lower than it was in 2023 but again we're about to touch on why this is if we jump over to quarterly data again let's switch what we're looking at instead of Revenue let's look at research and development expenses what we can see is in 2024 broadcom dramatically increased its research and development expenses and this this is obviously in hopes of being able to continue to hit those high levels of growth so for me personally as a shareholder that's not something I'm concerned about the lower earnings is not something I'm concerned about and to add on to the lower earnings we also have to point out it looks like they actually issued some new shares in 2024 as well now a lot of the times that can be a red flag for a company when you're talking about companies that are growing at very high growth rates if you can issue shares below intrinsic value and grow at a high growth rate and this is actually beneficial to the company it gives them more capital for things for like research and velopment but because I issued more shares obviously other per share metrics are actually going to decrease just like we saw with earnings per share and so those two reasons are why I'm not concerned whatsoever about the drop in earnings per share that was completely to be expected the company also announced they're going to be increasing their dividend by about 11.3% another massive double- digit hike for this dividend Growth Company and this has been one of the best dividend growth stocks over the past decade let me show you what I mean so if we look at the dividend history for broadcom come over here and click on dividends and dividend history on Seeking Alpha you can see a rapid history of increasing dividends at a very high rate I mean if we jump over and look at the dividend growth rates over different periods of time we're talking about a three-year dividend ceger of 13.5 5year 14.7 and a 10year of 34% and here's what's interesting yes broadcom does have a low starting dividend yield right now sitting at 1.17% but if we jump over to my do-it-yourself investor toolkit and look at my dividend dashboard look at my dividend yield on cost for this position for broadcom right here it's sitting at 4.08 and this doesn't even account for the new dividend hike yet which will push it even higher and this goes to show you the power of dividend growth when you buy a stock that's increasing dividends at a high rate your yield on cost is going to continue to grow and if you buy them at a good valuation you'll get an even higher starting yield as well for example if we come back over to Seeking Alpha look at the dividend yield on cost history for this company if we look 10 years ago if you bought the company exactly 10 years ago your yeld on cost would now be 21.7% we zoom out even more say you bought the company around 12 12 years ago your yield on cost would be 67.6% so that's like saying you made a $1,000 investment one time in 2012 you didn't reinvest any dividends or add any new capital you'd still be getting paid over $670 every single year from a onetime $11,000 investment and again that's the power of dividend growth and this is only made possible for one reason and it's because of broadcom's ability to generate free cash flow look at my free cash flow analysis sheet I'll plug in broadcom look at the company's free cash low growth since 2017 it's grown dramatically and if we look at it on a per share basis we can see that the exact same is true now the three-year free cash flow growth on a per share basis is going to be a little bit lower but again that boils back to the fact that the company did Issue new shares in the most recent year so broadcom's obviously been on a tear over the past decade and it's looking like they're going to continue to see very high levels of growth moving forward but with that being said is the company still trading at a good valuation at $218 per share now when we're talking about very high growth companies really the best way to look at it is by backing into their growth rate projections how much growth is the market pricing in so what we're going to do is actually look at a reverse discounted cash flow analysis model and again what this is telling us is how much free cash flow growth the market is pricing into this stock so for example again we're looking at broadcom and the historical free cash flows for this company from 2015 to 2014 assuming they don't have any free cash flow growth over the next decade what the market is telling us is this company's worth about $443 per share so let's back into the number and see what gets us to the current trading price if we bump up this free cash flow growth rate projection to 10% we come to a reverse DCF price per share of $101 so obviously the market thinks free cash flow will grow at a much higher rate than 10 if we bump it up to 15 we come to 148 bump it up to 20 we start getting very close and if we bump it up to about 20.3 you can see we get right at the current trading price so the market is telling us they expect broadcom to grow their free cash flow at a rate of about 20.3% moving forward now that sounds a little bit ridiculous but with the AI play that is actually possible in my opinion keep in mind if we look at earnings projections for this company moving forward over the next few years we're talking about year-over-year growth of 27.3 19 16 so even earnings are projected to grow at a very high rate so the question you have to ask yourself when it comes to valuation is do you think free cash flow will grow at this high of a rate or even faster because if so this is still a buying opportunity but if you think free cash flow grow gr will be dramatically lower then you probably want to stay away keep in mind I think regardless of valuation when you buy into this stock you're getting a company that is growing free cash flow at a very high rate and in turn will be able to grow their dividend payments at a very high rate and with the way they're projected to grow free cash flow into the future there's no doubt I think we're going to continue to see double digigit dividend growth so I've seen lots of people talking about over the past year how we should be selling broadcom I saw this mentioned many times when the company was trading as low as $100 a share or even around 120 or even recently when it was trading around $170 per share the reality is I'm perfectly happy holding on to my shares right now for the long term because I know the dividend growth is going to be so good but let me know what you think of this company in the comments down below and like always if you'd like to download any of my spreadsheets and also get access to the ticker data add-on in Google Sheets that allows you to automatically import stock Financial straight into your spreadsheet then you can head over to Ticker dat.com at the link in the description so with all that being said thank you guys so much for watching and please don't forget to like And subscribe to the channel
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