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Jamie Dimon는 2023년 미국이 6~9개월 내 경기침체에 들어갈 것으로 전망하며, 유럽은 이미 침체 상태로 본다. 경기침체 근거: 소비자 초과저축 약 1.5조 달러가 2023년 중반 이후 소진될 것이고, 금리 상승과 높은 인플레이션이 이를 잠식하고 있다. 금리·인플레이션: 연준 기준금리는 현재 4%이며 5% 이상으로 오를 가능성이 있고, 기저 인플레이션이 쉽게 꺾이지 않을 것으로 본다. 헤드라인 인플레이션은 2022년 6월 9.1%에서 6.5%로 둔화했다. 양적긴축(QT): 연준의 보유채권 매각으로 채권 가격 하락과 금리 상승이 나타나며, 이는 주식 가격 하락 압력으로 작용한다는 설명이다. 지정학 리스크: 우크라이나 전쟁, 에너지 무역, 미중 관계가 가장 큰 리스크이며, 러시아의 핵 위협을 중요한 변곡점으로 언급했다. 중국 재개방은 원자재 수입 증가로 인플레이션 요인이 될 수 있고, 유가는 향후 10년간 상승할 것으로 본다. 미국의 석유 투자 확대는 기후에도 이롭다는 견해를 밝혔다. 투자 원칙: 경기 예측은 어렵다고 보고, 경제적 해자(economic moat)를 가진 재무건전성 높은 기업에 투자하라고 조언한다. 영상 후반은 스폰서(Seeking Alpha) 소개다.
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and these are very very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S uh and the world I mean Europe is already in recession and they're likely to put U.S in some kind of recession six nine months from now Jamie Diamond just gave a frightening economic prediction while visiting Davos for the world economic Forum his forecast which is shared by other highly respected economists puts the US in recession within a few months as 1.5 trillion dollars of consumer liquidity is drying up fast today I'm going to be breaking down some new clips from Jamie dimon where he explains his economic predictions for 2023 and of course what it all means for investors today Jamie Diamond is the billionaire CEO of JP Morgan a position he's held since 2005.
Diamond built his 1.8 billion wealth almost entirely at JP Morgan with his 9 million shares in the company worth over 1.2 billion dollars today every now and then Jamie Diamond gives his outlook on the stock market and economy and he's one of the few people that I listen to on macroeconomic issues alongside Ray dalio and Howard Marx last week he sat down for an interview with CNBC while attending the world economic Forum in Switzerland the event is a week-long conference where thousands of investors economists and business and political leaders gathered to discuss Global issues across a series of sessions and it's one of the few times that we actually get to hear from some of the greatest Minds in the world of Finance in his interview Diamond indicated that he believes the US is heading for a mild recession in 2023.
but the the real issue for the world is Russia War Ukraine energy trade and that is serious and that's still out there hopefully it'll mitigate and go away but it may not he cited the war in Ukraine the U.S China relations and inflation as three key factors that could lead to an economic downturn in the near future and in another relatively recent interview he actually also gave a timeline for that recession suggesting that it will begin within six to nine months it's rates going up more than people expected already and probably a little bit more from here it's QT which we've never had before so therefore the unknown effects you see it today and bond markets around the world and Sovereign markets and people selling U.S treasury debt and it's the war and these are very very serious things which I think are likely to push the US and the world I mean Europe is already in recession then they're likely to put U.S in some kind of recession six nine months from now Diamond views the ongoing war in Ukraine as the biggest Global issue right now not just in terms of how it affects the economy but also how the outcome could set the tone for geopolitical issues going forward over the next few decades their only thing that matters for the future of the world is how this thing plays out Russia Ukraine and I and the humanitarian crisis I when I wake up every day and I read the missiles going into buildings and killing kids every day and and it's nuclear blackmail that this is the most serious issue and in my view could be an inflection point for the Western World 400 years just last week Russia's Deputy head of Security Council stated that the loss of a nuclear power in a conventional War can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war nuclear powers do not lose major conflicts on which their fate depends and he also said this should be obvious to anyone even to a western politician who has retained at least some trace of intelligence and that's not the only time that Russia has threatened nuclear war during their invasion of Ukraine back in April Russia also warned of nuclear expansion if Sweden and Finland were to join NATO arguing that Russia could use strategic nuclear weapons to defend territories in Ukraine and the conflict that has no real end in sight has caused Ripple effects across Global Supply chains and has significantly increased the likelihood of the US falling into recession for example Diamond stated that he believes interest rates which are currently set at four percent in the U.S are likely to rise well above 5 I actually think Rachel probably go higher than five percent higher and the five percent that's my own view because I think there's a lot of underlying inflation which won't go away so quick the mainstream narrative at the moment is that the underlying causes of inflation are subsiding and that the worst of inflation is behind us and this has certainly been the case in the short term with inflation declining from 9.1 percent in June 2022 to 6.5 recorded last month and on a month by month basis headline inflation has slowed to a halt driven by Energy prices declining after surging earlier in the year in addition China is beginning to open up after having long sustained covert lockdowns and many people view this as deflationary as it will ease some of the supply-side bottlenecks that have been plaguing American businesses over the past couple of years but Diamond like Ray dalio has a different view of these factors like we've had the benefit of China slowing down the benefit of oil prices dropping a little bit I think oil and gas prices are probably going to up the next 10 years we're not invested enough for all against to actually keep it low and it's you know and it's also a fragile system so like one terrorist bomb and you see you can see we can have the oil prices and so I think we should be very and wage is not going to win that much people left the workforce China isn't going to be deflationary anymore all these other factors taking place so I think it may have to be more than that firstly Diamond believes that China reopening could actually be inflationary as they increase their Imports particularly of Commodities used in manufacturing and how that could drive increased costs for U.S companies which are importing goods from China and while oil and other Energy prices are coming down Diamond sees this as being temporary essentially Diamond sees oil increasing in price over the next decade due to a lack of domestic investment and higher oil prices also doesn't fare well for the climate because poorer countries that can't afford the higher oil prices will resort to cheaper dirtier fossil fuels such as coal so while it may seem counter-intuitive to some Diamond believes that if the U.S was to invest more in oil production it would actually be beneficial to the climate in the medium term but also on an economic basis it would help to prevent another inflation spiral but even if the U.S chooses to invest more in oil production Diamond believes inflation will be coming back in a meaningful way in the near term and that the Federal Reserve will need to continue raising rates above five percent to get it under control there is one other factor that diamond is using to reach his conclusion that a recession is coming in six to nine months just before I show you that clip I do want to talk about a fantastic resource for staying up to date with the markets and economic news and a today's sponsor Seeking Alpha Seeking Alpha is a massive online community of stock Pickers and the Premium plan has a ton of awesome features for investors expert analysis and news for thousands of different stocks to help you learn the ins and outs of what's going on with companies and the economy you can import and track your own portfolio including buy or sell alerts there are consensus buy hold and sell ratings from Members Wall Street analysts and seeking Alpha's own algorithm you can screen for stocks using a wide variety of fundamental and technical analysis metrics access up to 10 years of financial data and Company filings also there's a ton of educational content to improve your skills including webinars podcasts and articles and best of all if you use my link down in the description below you can sign up today for an annual plan for as little as 10 a month so head over to hamisholder.com Alpha and try Seeking Alpha out today if you look in the short run the consumer is spending 10 percent more than last year and 40 won pre-covered they're spending in different things so all your speakers up here they're some are doing better some are doing worse that's a tremendous sum of money and they have a trillion and a half dollars still in their checking accounts more than pre-covered so the spending is down that's the good news and the companies are in good shape too by the way and they're bouncy consumer balance is in great shape the other news which is not good is the rates are now you know four percent on their way to five uh inflation is eroding everything I just said and that a trillion and a half dollars will run out sometime mid-year next year the enormous amount of liquidity created by the FED during 2020 has boosted the amount of savings people have to the point where today Americans still have 1.5 trillion dollars more in their savings accounts than they did before covert but with high inflation and now higher interest rates a lot of that is being eroded away higher interest rates means that households are paying more for their mortgages and if they have other Consumer Debt then they're paying more on those as well and higher inflation has meant that even though they have more savings to spend the cost of the items that they're buying the goods and services they're buying on a week by week basis have gone up substantially and according to Diamond the 1.5 trillion dollars of additional savings will be depleted during 2023 and then there's quantitative tightening something that we actually haven't seen play out in a meaningful way ever before it's QT which we've never had before so therefore the unknown effects you see it today and bond markets around the world and Sovereign markets and people selling U.S treasury debt quantitative tightening is the process of the Federal Reserve offloading some of the assets on its balance sheet currently the FED has about 8.5 trillion dollars of government bonds mortgage-backed Securities and some other Financial assets as they sell some of these Bonds in the market they're adding additional supply to the supply and demand balance and that essentially drives down the price of bonds and can also drive down the bonds of other risky assets whose returns and prices are seen relative to bonds essentially the additional selling of bonds mean that the yield of those bonds goes up and that means that the desired yield on stocks also goes up or in other words the stock prices need to come down but to understand it at an even easier level the more that the FED is selling bonds the more money they're drawing out of the financial markets but while these macroeconomic issues are very far out of our control Diamond offers some guiding principles for investors trying to navigate the uncertain market conditions and the economy of course we all talk about it it's like the weather we don't really know and I hate guessing about that we should have a little humility I've never seen anyone actually do it well the most important thing to recognize is that hardly anyone is able to predict economic events on a consistent basis because there are just too many unknowable factors so Diamond says don't worry about the so-called economic weather and instead focus on ensuring that you're protected regardless of a wide array of outcomes that could take place over the next 12 to 24 months I know they're going to be recessions up downs and downs I really don't spend that much time worrying about it I do worry about poor public policy that damages American growth I worry about a lot of stuff but not about whether you know what the weather's going to be like and of course you know I don't want to research it could hurt average Americans I'm not for it but I have to be prepared for it and the same principles should be applied when investing in businesses because we cannot know for sure if the US will enter a recession and if so how long or severe it will be it's better to focus on investing in companies that can survive a period of economic weakness on the other hand if you're investing in companies that need economic conditions to continue improving or they need interest rates to go back down because they carry a lot of debt then you're essentially gambling on economic factors that are well outside of your control and the businesses control instead focus on businesses in strong Financial Health and that have some kind of economic mode and economic mode is some kind of unique characteristic that protects the business from competition in its simplest form if a business has a product or service that cannot be substituted for a competing businesses product or service and it's a product or service that the consumer needs then you can be confident that that business is going to retain its customers even through difficult economic circumstances you can identify these businesses by looking for companies that have a sustainable ability to generate higher Returns on the capital they deploy for business can do that then they have an economic mode if there's two different businesses that sell phones for example except one is able to charge far more without customers substituting for the cheaper phone then clearly that more expensive phone hands is something unique and desirable that is needed by customers allowing them to probably invest a similar amount into manufacturing and that sort of thing but ultimately get more of a return on their invested Capital through charging higher prices there are many different types of economic modes and a really good resource for learning about some of the key ones is a book called seven Powers by Hamilton Helmer or check out some of the videos that I've done on economic modes and competitive advantages here on the YouTube channel I'll leave a couple of those videos linked down in the description below for you to watch after this video which is right now so go check them out if you're interested and if you enjoyed this video I'd appreciate it if you could hit the Subscribe button or hit the like button if you're already subscribed with that said hope everyone has a great rest of your week I'll see you in the next one
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