저자: HamishHodder · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 13F 공시 분석. 2024년 2분기 미국 주식 포트폴리오가 50% 이상 축소되어 약 5천만 달러가 되었고, 11개 종목을 전량 매도했으며 5개 신규 편입. 스프롯 피지컬 골드 트러스트와 HCA 헬스케어를 매도하고 몰리나 헬스케어 비중을 확대. 알리바바 등 중국 기술주 비중도 확대. 총 운용자산은 유지되어 비미국 자산이나 현금 보유 가능성이 있음. 주식 설명 중심이며 특정 가격 방향 예측 발언은 거의 없음.
다듬은 글
last week it was revealed that Michael bur's us stock portfolio had shrunk by over 50% to just over $50 million he sold out completely from 11 of the 16 stocks that he previously owned and only added five new Investments but even more interesting is that the total assets under management at his fund remained about the same so he's either increased his investments in other assets and countries or like Warren Buffett he's sitting on a huge pile of cash but regardless there are some fascinating stories behind some of the changes he's made to the portfolio some of the stocks that he's sold out of positions he's doubled down on and five brand new Investments two of which now represent nearly 30% of his us Holdings but let's start with bu's decision to sell out of most of his Investments HCA Healthcare City Group brought physical gold trust block Incorporated Signa group Advanced Auto Parts BP vital energy starbolt carriers First Solar and safe bulkers were all missing from the latest SEC regulatory filing together these stocks represented almost 70% of his us stock portfolio there's two notable names in that list the first is sprot physical gold trust at the end of the previous quarter it was his fifth biggest US Stock representing more than 7% of the Holdings I spoke about this in my last buy video because it seemed like a pretty obvious bet on trouble occurring in the economy gold is considered a safe haven during times of crisis when there's been a sharp slowdown in the economy many investors flee the uncertainty of businesses and put their money in Gold Sprout physical gold trust is one way to own some Gold without having to store the physical metal yourself instead sprot holds your gold at the Royal Canadian Mint and if you want they'll even let you exchange your shares for delivery of actual gold this makes bur's sale of the stock actually rather interesting because we don't know whether he simply decided he doesn't want to invest in gold anymore or whether he's redeemed his shares for the physical metal which he is not legally required to disclose in public filings the other notable stock he sold was HCA Healthcare he first invested in the company at the end of 2023 and while we can't know the exact price he paid he would have made between 13 and 55% on it in under 6 months the company owns and operates hospitals and surgery centers around the US and United Kingdom it's a highquality well-run business growing consistently year after year and it was pretty reasonably priced but this quarter buy found something even better in the healthcare industry he sold out of HCA and put all the money into Molina Healthcare about 14% of his us portfolio in just the last 3 months they provide Healthcare Services to lowincome Americans under the Medicare and Medicaid government assistance programs the stock has performed extremely well for years but in March of this year it hit a major roadblock falling 30% in just a couple of months it was during this decline that buy made his investment and while the stock did keep falling just last month things turned again up 20% in the last 4 weeks I want to show you some of the numbers behind this stock because they help explain why buy suddenly exited his other Healthcare bets and went heavy into this one and as we dive into the numbers behind this company I'm also going to tell you about the sponsor of today's video stockopedia this is the Molina Healthcare stock report it's one of more than 35,000 Global stocks tracked with institutional quality data that will help you uncover hidden gems Molina has grown revenues and profits very consistently at around 10 to 12% per year book value has grown at 21% per year as the company reinvests most of its profits back into the business and earning a 20% return on Capital one of my favorite features of stockopedia is their proprietary stock rank system which simplifies all of this financial data into rankings based on quality value and momentum two of bu's biggest Investments Alibaba and by are some of the highest ranked stocks on the site I'll be talking a little bit more about these companies later in the video Molina scored a 97 out of 100 for business quality which is no surprise given their strong growth and internal return on on investment for value they're about the middle of the road in terms of cheapness they have a forward price to earnings ratio of 14 the traffic light colors make it easy to see that this is better than most of their industry peers but about average when compared to all US Stocks Molina is also in great Financial Health scoring eight out of nine on stockopedia health Trend scale and they fall into the safe category on the Elman Z2 score which evaluates bankruptcy risk these indicators as well as the M score give you more confidence in your investment Decisions by identifying potential risks and exposure to losses the stock even qualifies for three different Guru investor screeners Joel green blats Richard bards and one of Warren buffets these Guru screeners are actually based off the investing styles of proven investment Legends so for example we know that Warren Buffett screens will typically focus on a return on Equity greater than 15% growing operating profits and margins above the industry average you can of course create your own screeners using more than 350 metrics to find Opportunities based on your own criteria but it's in the portfolio analysis tools that we can really see the way bur thinks about Investments you can use this to build and monitor your own portfolio allocation but I also made one for Buy's portfolio in the bubble chart view we can visualize the three different types of Investments that he targets highquality businesses that are reasonably cheap Molina is in that group then the Lesser quality businesses but they further to the right which means they're quite cheap and then there's that which looks like a horrible investment this is one of bu's new Investments the dot size means it's a small investment but it's a very interesting one which we'll take a look at in a minute if you're interested in unlocking a world of powerful insights and Cutting Edge tools my audience can get a 20% discount and a 14-day free trial on any annual stockopedia plan by using the link in the description or entering the coupon code hh20 check out and if you have any questions feel free to drop them in the comments Below in total buy added five new stocks to his portfolio Molina which we just covered shift for payments Hudson Pacific Properties Olex Holdings and bio atla Incorporated bio atas stands out like a sore thumb it's a tiny biotech company trying to develop drugs for cancer therapy it has no revenues and has been very quickly burning through its cash reserves not exactly the kind of stock that you would expect to find in a value Investor's portfolio remember Buffett's rule number one of investing don't lose money this is like the complete opposite of that almost guaranteed to lose money so why is it in Buy's portfolio well one of the drugs bio atler was developing was set to have Phase 2 trial results released in May Phase 2 is where they test the effectiveness of an experimental drug with a small group of volunteers if the results turned out to be really good then it could be a catalyst for the stock to Surge well they released their results and the results were um I'm actually not sure if this is good or bad but the market didn't like it the stock fell 50% since we know that Michael Brey invested in the stock somewhere between April 1st and June 30th it's very likely that he was just making a small speculative bet on the success of this particular drug trial there's also a few other drugs currently in Phase 1 or two trials that have results coming out later this year but I wouldn't be surprised if this stock was missing from the next quarterly SEC filing for all we know he might have already sold it buying stocks like this is much closer to gambling than it is to investing unless you have some deep industry knowledge around this stuff and even then if a drug they're developing is highly likely to succeed the market will already reflect that in the stock price but let's shift Focus to bu's biggest investment no pun intended shift for payments is now bu's third largest known invest M almost 14% of the US portfolio as the name suggests the company provides Payment Processing solutions to businesses they sell a full Suite of products and services such as point of sale devices and endtoend payment processing that can consolidate in store and online sales through one payment platform most payments in the US are processed by either Visa or Mastercard but there are many different payment businesses that give Merchants the tools to allow them to accept these payment methods from customer customers they mostly make money by charging fees on the volume of payments and per transaction but most of this money ends up going to the bank that issued the credit card to the customer and then the bank then passes that money on most of that money to either Visa or Mastercard for actually processing and authorizing the payment in fact after taking into account these costs and their other operating costs they don't actually make money from the payments themselves the profit is mostly from subscriptions that they charge their Merchants for using their point of sale devices so this kind of business is really really dependent on scale they only reached profitability in 2022 when they processed more than $70 billion worth of transactions one reason that buy might have invested in this company is the potential for it to be bought out by a larger competitor in the last few months founder and CEO Jared isman had received multiple bids for the company to be acquired but rejected them because they didn't sufficiently value the firm they're also putting a good portion of their profits towards repurchasing shares they recently authorized a $500 million program the worst part about the company is definitely their balance sheet they had $3.4 billion of assets but most are intangible such as Goodwill Goodwill assets are created when Shift 4 makes an acquisition of another company something that they've done a lot of it's not something that is inherently bad but investors generally will disregard it when evaluating the financial health of the business if you remove Goodwill from the balance sheet Shift 4 has more liabilities than assets primarily $1.8 billion in long-term debt the bad news is that most of this debt is due in the next 2 years if it's refinanced they'll likely be paying much higher interest rates the good news is that it's convertible debt so if the stock price continues to rise they won't have to pay it back but bad news again if that does end up happening it will ultimately increase the number of shares outstanding redu using the value of each share so it could end up being bad for investors anyway bre also doubled down on bets in Chinese Tech increasing his bet in the Alibaba Group by 24% and making it his largest US listed position a few names down he almost doubled his bet on BYU the owner of China's dominant internet search engine he did reduce his investment in jd.com by about 30% but it remains a large bet besides Molina Healthcare bu's three Chinese bets are the only companies that make it into the high quality and cheap category on stockopedia they've been horrible stocks to hold since 2021 and it can be largely attributed to the economy China is facing one of the worst property crises on record and with a large chunk of Citizen wealth tied up in the sector it's been extremely tough on consumers and while this has certainly impacted the growth of these companies they are still growing and producing a ton of free cash flow so the investment really comes down to whether China's economy recovers in the next couple of years and also the other looming macro risks the potential for further clamping down by the CCP on large businesses and the geopolitical risks of worsening tensions between the US and China the biggest piece of Buy's portfolio as always is unknown to us the SEC regulatory filings only allow us to see us stock positions and we also get a dollar figure for the total assets under management so we know buy is managing another $132 million which is held in assets other than US Stocks that's almost 70% of the whole portfolio it's pretty likely that at least some of this unknown part of his portfolio is invested in stocks outside of the us that he doesn't need to report but it could also include other types of assets it could include bonds property Commodities like gold and of course it could include cash but unless buy reactivates his Twitter account we won't know whether he's sitting on a pile of cash like Buffett or whether he took his money out of US stocks and just put it into other Investments let me know your thoughts down in the comments section subscribe if you enjoyed and consider checking out one of these videos next
Comments 0