Ray Dalio’s Alarming Stock Market Prediction For 2023

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Ray Dalio는 2023년 경기침체 장기화와 부채 도미노 위험을 경고하며 현금이 유리하다고 본 것으로 소개되지만, 진행자는 특정 자산 전략은 따르지 않는다고 밝힘. 핵심 주장: 물가 상승으로 금리를 충분히 올리기 어려워 정부 부채(국채) 상환 부담과 채권 가격 하락 위험이 커짐. 근거: 영국 물가 상승률 10% 이상, 영란은행 기준금리 3.5%로 실질 수익률 마이너스; 이탈리아 등 유럽 재정 부담 언급. 부채 도미노: 고금리 채권을 발행한 취약 기업이 먼저 파산하고 위험자산 전반의 금리가 상승하는 연쇄 효과가 이미 시작됐고 약 9개월에 걸쳐 본격화될 것이라는 Dalio·Jamie Dimon 공통 전망 소개. 미국은 유럽보다 충격이 작을 것으로 봄. 미국 경기침체 전망(Greg Jensen): 연준이 금리 인하 여력이 작고(연방기금금리 약 4%) 물가도 높아 침체가 통상보다 약 2배 길어질 수 있음. 과거 1990·2001년 침체 시 금리를 급락시킨 사례와 대비. 자산 전략: Jensen은 현금 수익률이 경쟁력 있다고 보고, 물가연동채(인플레이션 인덱스 채권)가 장기적으로 매력적이라고 언급. 위험자산은 하락 쪽으로 해석됨. 진행자 입장: 경기 사이클 원리는 중요하지만 단기 자산 배분 조언은 따르지 않음. Dalio도 2022년 현금을 쓰레기라 했다가 틀린 사례 지적. 2020년 3월 매도 후 후회 사례를 들어 시장 타이밍 대신 인덱스 장기 보유 강조. 종목 언급: 개별 종목 방향 발언 없음(시장 전반·채권·현금 중심). 출연자 전망: Dalio는 단기 경기침체 장기화, 채권·위험자산 하락 쪽 전망. 진행자는 중립적 태도.

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01. now an interest rate that is high enough to deal with inflation is too high of an interest rate for the debtor and the and the dominoes are falling in a very very classic way Ray dalio just sat down and explained his stock market predictions for 2023 and his outlook for the next few months is pretty concerning balio believes the dominoes are beginning to fall in the financial markets and agrees with Jamie Diamond that a significant economic event is reaching its Tipping Point about nine months into 2023 and rather than economic conditions improving which is what the market seems to currently believe we're about to enter what he calls a prolonged period of recession today I'm going to break down these new clips from Ray Dalia where he explains his predictions for 2023 and of course what it all means for the average investor today if you don't already know Ray dalio is a wildly successful investor with a net worth of 19 billion dollars Bridgewater was founded by dalio in 1975 where he operated out of his apartment as a wealth advisory firm providing his clients insights on currency and interest rate fluctuations today Bridgewater Associates has 235 billion dollars of assets under management making it the largest hedge fund in the world Ray dalio is one of the very few people that I look to for commentary on macroeconomics dalio has spent decades learning about the economic Cycles going back hundreds of years and while stocks and other assets do get pushed up and down in the short term based on a huge number of unknowable factors the broad trends of how the economic machine works are important to understand as they happen over and over again across time one of these broad economic Cycles is the debt domino effect that dalio sees playing out in many parts of the world at the moment the basic mechanic at play here is the relationship between the bond market and government spending governments all around the world generate Revenue through taxation and Investments and they also spend money on things like healthcare defense and other government programs if government spending is outpacing the revenue they collect then the government has what's called a budget deficit and that has to be made up by the government issuing debt Securities known as bonds and the problem at the moment is that many governments in different countries around the world are currently having a very difficult time finding enough buyers for these bonds if you take the UK for example inflation last year surged to as high as 11 and it currently Still Remains above 10 percent with no real signs of it declining in a meaningful way at the same time the bank of England the UK's Central Bank has set their official interest rate at just 3.5 percent or in other words the interest payments that people would receive on those bonds if they purchase them from the government would be nowhere near enough to cover the amount of loss of purchasing power that the pound is losing through inflation and when this happens it can be very difficult for governments to find buyers to accept a negative real return on those bonds and it means it's difficult for them to fund their budget deficits of course the long-term solution here is that the Central Bank raises their their interest rate enough that it brings inflation under control and therefore increases the real return that investors get on bonds but there is a problem that happens in the short term as interest rates rise the government's debt payments rise too so either the government revenue needs to increase or spending needs to slow to make up the difference at a global economic conference recently Dalia spoke to the same effect happening in Europe the level of interest rates relative to the level of the inflation rates and the terrible choice that has to be made about if you raise interest rates what does that mean to Italy's Debt Service payments who is going to make up that difference there's just mechanics to this dalio is describing the stagflation reenvironment that the EU currently faces at its core because inflation has spiraled out of control the interest rate level that is needed to get inflation under control is now too high for debtors or borrowers to handle like the UK the EU needs to hike rates further to get inflation under control but those rate hikes put a huge amount of pressure on governments that are running massive budget deficits and unfortunately it's just one of those situations in economics where the value of the bond is going to go down one way or another now the question is do they go down in value because the currency goes down in value or because the bond price goes down in value but one way or another they're going to go down in value dalio in the past has discussed how governments often end up letting inflation run hot for really long period of time because the interest rate hikes needed to get it under control would simply the government and by letting inflation run rampant it actually allows the government to reduce their debt load because the inflation on the currency reduces the value of the debt on their books of course while that sounds good for the government it is absolutely terrible for the people in that country who see the cost of living rise substantially and their savings that they may have built for over decades eroded completely away at the same conference dalio goes on to explain the domino effect that he expects to play out over the next few months in the financial markets but just before I show you that clip I do want to talk about today's sponsor which is Seeking Alpha a fantastic resource for staying up to date with the financial markets and economic news Seeking Alpha is a massive online community of stock Pickers and the Premium plan has a ton of awesome features for investors expert analysis and news for thousands of different stocks to help you learn the ins and outs of what's going on with companies in the economy you can import and track your own portfolio including buy or sell alerts there are consensus buy hold and sell ratings from Members Wall Street analysts and seeking Alpha's own algorithm you can screen for stocks using a wide variety of fundamental and technical analysis metrics access up to 10 years of financial data and Company filings and there's a ton of educational content to improve your skills including webinars podcasts and articles and best of all if you use my link down in the description below you can join now for as little as eight dollars a month which also comes with a free trial so go check it out if you haven't already it is a fantastic resource or you can head directly to hamashotter.com Seeking Alpha to get the best deal available today and the and the dominoes are falling in a very very classic way for example if you take high yield investing now you have the risk-free rate go up to four percent and you have the credit spreads go up to not five percent now they have a nine percent interest rate so they are going to have they're going to be the first ones to go and you have this series of Dynamics dalio believes that Rising interest rates are likely to cause a domino effect of failing businesses this starts with struggling unprofitable businesses that have had to issue high yield bonds because these companies are in dire Financial situations they are forced to issue bonds or essentially borrow money from investors at really high interest rates but then they are also very sensitive to any increases in interest rates so as interest rates rise on those high yield bonds they are unable to facilitate or pay those higher rates and therefore they go bankrupt and then this causes somewhat of a debt domino effect as it flows from high yield bonds to even less risky bonds as interest rates rise across all risky assets W thinks this has already begun but will play out in a significant way over the next nine months a projection he shares with the CEO of JPMorgan Jamie dimon and the fall of the dominoes has started yeah you can see the fall of the Domino signing you could see it is like who has the cash how much cash do you have that are going to get you through are you going to have a year or two or three or don't you have the cash and The Dominoes usually fall in the same kind of ways and they're falling in the same kind of ways Jamie mentioned in nine months that's a reasonable time frame if you take a look at the cash flows and you watch those things that's what it looks like however dalio doesn't see this domino effect happening everywhere around the world equally in fact while he thinks this debt domino effect will be massive in the EU he doesn't believe it will be that big in the US in an interview just a few weeks ago Chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates Greg Jensen outlined their projection for the stock market in 2023 and when we listened to Jensen we're essentially listening to Ray dalio because Jensen took over from dalio as CIO and dalio still acts as a mentor for Jensen as a part of the Bridgewater succession plan in an interview with Bloomberg Jensen explains why he believes the US is on the cusp of a prolonged period of recession that is likely to drive further declines in stocks and other asset classes and what you see in these periods of higher inflation when central banks ease more slowly into the recession is they last longer and the drawdowns in assets are longer so we'd expect kind of double the normal length of a recession because the fed's not going to be at your back for a long time and that's a big deal over the past 40 years every time the US has entered a recession the Federal Reserve has very quickly been able to lower interest rates significantly in order to stimulate the economy for example in the late 80s strong economic growth drove inflation from a low of 1.2 percent in 1986 to 6.3 percent in 1990 then naturally to combat that inflation and to prevent another inflation spiral the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from about six percent to 10 across four years and the tightening of monetary policy as it tends to do put the U.S into a recession in 1990 so then the Federal Reserve immediately reversed its rate hikes and dropped interest rates from 10 to 3 percent and the same thing happened in 2001 inflation was Rising the fed combated this by raising interest rates and the US went into recession due to tie to monetary policy and the FED ended the recession by dropping rates this time from six percent to one percent so while this has happened many times over the past 40 years if the US goes into recession this year then the Federal Reserve has far less ability to stimulate the economy for two key reasons firstly imp previous recessions there has been plenty of room to lower interest rates whereas today the federal funds rate is just at four percent so there's not a lot of room for them to work with secondly inflation is still pretty high in the U.S so the FED may actually take longer to provide any stimulus at all so essentially Jensen and dalio believe that the recession is likely to be twice as long as a typical recession because the Federal Reserve will take twice as long to act to stimulate the economy given the current interest rate and inflation re-environment finally Jensen comments about the types of assets that they believe will work well in the next year well I think first off cash adds you know at these levels are is is competitive you know that's going to be one of the dilemmas right so this year you saw it as the interest rates changed a lot that the change had a big effect now the bigger deal is going to be the level difference right the yield on cash is competitive with the yield and Equity markets with obviously the yielded Bond markets so I do think you're going to see more people draw into cash and it's not terrible at at those levels it's a PR it's a pretty reasonable choice we do think inflation index bonds are attractive long-term inflation has not been priced into markets and if the economy weakens a lot real yields will need to fall so we think that's an area that's that's reasonable funnily enough he says cash doing well which essentially means he sees risky assets like stocks going down but while I think it's important to understand the main mechanics of how these economic Cycles work I never listen to specific advice on which asset classes are going to do well particularly in the short term in order to make actions in the market I'm not listening to Jensen here and moving into cash for example and that's because even though these economic events are real and they do happen over and over again in Cycles they always happen a little bit differently and we never really know how the stock market for example is specifically going to react to the specific event we don't know if the stock market's going to fall before the recession or maybe the stock market even rallies into the recession we really don't know because how that plays out has been different across time and while right dollier has had a very good track record of explaining the different Cycles as they take place he's also been wrong on the specific actions of specific asset classes I mean it wasn't even that long ago when Dalia was calling cash trash when in 2022 it was one of the best performing asset classes simply by the fact that stocks and bonds fell significantly and I mean he could be right this time he could be right that cash is the correct place to be and that equities and bonds are going to continue to fall and continue the same trend from 2022 but if he's wrong and you move to cash then you're going to be left behind the amount of people that I spoke to or that I knew who were selling the majority of their shares in March of 2020 because they thought things were getting worse is enormous I know so many people who were either not buying shares or even aggressively selling shares at the same time that I was loading up not because I knew that that was the bottom of the market it could have continued to fall for the remainder of the year or even longer than that but because I saw businesses that were at great prices and I didn't care if the market was going to go down further in the short term it's the mindset of timing the market that is going to get you into a lot of trouble and miss out on some of the best opportunities to invest and if you're an index fund investor then it's even easier than that you just have to stay the course and recognize that this is a normal economic event it's normal for the US or the globe to go through a recession to go through tough periods but over the very long term if we look back historically the US has done a very good job at driving productivity and driving economic growth broadly for businesses in the US