저자: ProfessorG · 외국인
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주식 가치평가 방법을 소개하는 교육 영상. 기업의 해자(moat)와 사업 이해를 우선으로 하고, PER·PEG·PBR·FCF수익률·DCF 등 핵심 지표와 동종업계 비교, 적신호(부채·일회성 이익·마진 축소 등) 점검법을 설명. 영상 말미에 Patreon 유료 그룹 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Valuing a stock to determine if it's undervalued involves combining financial analysis, market comparisons, and future expectations. In this video, I'm going to show you how to value a stock fully. I'll also show you cool free tools like Alpha Spread, which can show you something very complicated like the intrinsic value of a stock in seconds.
This is a powerful tool, but without understanding what the numbers and key terms even mean, it's just a bunch of pretty colors and a cool chart. With the contents of this video, you'll be able to start making serious profit in the stock market very soon. Here's a simple but effective step-by-step framework.
So, number one, first and foremost, you need to understand the business. What does the company do? Is it growing? Is it profitable? Does it have a competitive advantage? Look for moes like brand or network effects or patents or switching costs. When I teach at the university about entrepreneurship or specifically entrepreneurial finance, I always ask the students why would anybody actually care about your startup idea or your product.
If they're starting a new fitness clothing brand, I ask why would somebody switch from Nike or Adidas to your brand? If they're starting a coffee shop, I ask, "Why the heck would they go away from something convenient like Starbucks, a product that they already know and like in order to go to your new coffee shop that they have no idea if they're going to like it or not?" I'm basically asking them to clearly define and figure out what is their competitive advantage going to be because without that, businesses just don't survive.
So in stock picking, I like to look for companies that have clear competitive advantage. Ones that are going to have not only a small competitive advantage, but huge competitive advantage almost so much so that other companies can't even compete with this company old days. But businesses still do. Companies in a capitalistic society live in a cutthroat environment where if you happen to find a business niche that is exceptionally profitable, competition will come for you.
Our guy Warren Buffett loves exceptionally profitable businesses. But he also hates having these profits being taken away by competition. Therefore, Buffett insists that having a moat around the business castle is perhaps the most important criterion of all when investing in stock market companies. And he's not looking for small ponds either.
These moes should be as wide as possible. We think in terms of that moat and the ability to keep its width and its impossibility of being crossed as the primary criterion of a of a great business. And to our managers, we say we want the moat widened every year. Finding a moat when analyzing a stock means identifying a company's sustainable competitive advantage, something that protects it from rivals and helps it maintain strong profits over time.
Here's a couple of types of modes and competitive advantages that I look for. Number one would be brand power, strong consumer recognition and loyalty. Some examples would be Coca-Cola, Apple, Nike. Look for high customer retention, pricing power, and premium branding. Number two would be cost advantage.
They can produce goods or services cheaper than competitors. Examples here would be Walmart, Costco, Southwest Airlines. Look for high operating margins, scale economies, and lowcost logistics. Number three is network effects. Product or service becomes more valuable as more people use it. So examples would be like Facebook or Meta, Visa, Uber.
Look for rapid user growth, lock in effect, and platform model. Four would be switching costs. Customers face high costs or friction to switch to competitors. Some examples are Adobe, Microsoft Office, and Salesforce. Look for subscriptions, integrations, learning curves. Number five is intellectual property.
Looking for something like patents, trademarks, or exclusive rights that prevent copying. Examples would be Fizer, Qualcomm, and Disney. You're going to want to look for patent portfolios, licensing revenue, and legal protections. Six would be regulatory advantages. So something like government granted licenses or protection.
Examples would be utilities, defense contracts, telecom companies. A big one here is Palunteer. Look for high barriers to entry, limited licenses, and regulatory approvals. Notice how up until this point, I haven't even talked about numbers at all. You need to understand that you're not just buying a stock.
You're not just buying a number. You're buying a living company. That ticker symbol represents a living business. And so it's crucial that you understand the business inside and out before even going deep into the weeds of their actual business numbers. Once you feel confident about the business model, the business itself, the position that the business holds compared to other competitors, then you can start looking at some key financial metrics.
I'm going to give you the Spark Nodes cheat sheet here, and then I'm going to explain each one in a bit. So, with the PE ratio, you're looking for a target that's less than the sector average. And why that matters is that it has cheaper earnings. The PEG ratio is one of my favorites, and you're looking for a PEG of under one because that's growth adjusted value.
The FCF yield, you're looking for greater than 5% because you want to find that cash flow efficiency. DCF value you want it to be greater than the market price for that intrinsic undervaluation and the price to book ratio you want it to be less than 1.5 usually and that's the asset value relative to the price.
So let's go over each one of those just a little bit just enough for you to start your research. So the first one is price toearnings ratio. For the formula you're looking at the stock price divided by the earnings per share. We're trying to look for ones that are lower than peers in the industry because that could mean that it's possibly undervalued.
Make sure earnings are not temporarily depressed. Generally, a good PE ratio is under 20. But sometimes we have growth stocks like Palunteer or Tesla or something like that and they're way overvalued. If you're just looking at the PE ratio, you might see something like a 100 times PE or 600 in the case of Palunteer.
And so we like to use something different like the PEG ratio. PEG ratio is PE to growth. The formula is the price to earnings or PE divided by the expected EPS growth rate. A PEG under one equals potential undervaluation relative to growth. It's useful for growth stocks like Nvidia or Palunteer. You might see a higher PE on something like Nvidia, but then when you actually look at the peg, it's actually pretty good.
but it's in the one range. Unfortunately, when you look at Palunteer, that peg is still crazy high. So, be careful with stocks like that. Next is price to book ratio or PB ratio. This is useful for asset heavy companies like banks and energy. A PB under one could signal undervaluation, but only if assets are valued accurately.
Next would be free cash flow yield, FCF. The formula would be the FCF per share divided by the price. The higher the better compared to a 10-year Treasury for risk premium. Now, that's just a little list of the most important metrics to look at. I can do a video on each one of those probably in the future because you can go very, very deep.
But for now, at least you have the key term and a couple of things to look for. Go deep into that with your research and that's going to help your stock picking huge. I know a lot of those numbers and formulas are not most people's strong suit, which is why a bunch of us meet together every two weeks or so in my Patreon exclusive group where we do live Zooms together.
The link is down below to join the exclusive group where I give out my stock picks as I buy them and also explain when dips happen and when I'm buying. We also meet on a live Zoom, like I was saying, as a group multiple times per month, so you can ask me whatever you'd like. Now, another big tool when looking at stocks and another metric that you're going to want to look for is the discounted cash flow.
This is an optional metric, but it's definitely one that I like to use. This estimates intrinsic value based on future cash flows. You're going to want to project the company's free cash flows for 5 to 10 years, then discount back to present value using a discount rate, usually around 8 to 12%. Then, you're going to want to look at the actual current stock price.
If the intrinsic value is greater than the current price, the stock may be undervalued. A couple of free tools that I like to use come from Finbox or Guru Focus, but Alpha Spread is my favorite. This one's good for qualitative and quantitative risk. It also just shows you the intrinsic value right off the bat.
though, please don't just take what some model or some website tells you as this is the intrinsic value or this is the PEG ratio. Make sure and do the actual formula yourself because things change and also sometimes they get it wrong. So now once you've figured out a couple of these different metrics and you've figured out the business itself, you know how to do some quantitative and some qualitative, now it's time to compare these things that you found about a certain company to the peers within its same industry.
And that's very important. How does the stock's valuation metrics stack up against its own industry? You want to look at key competitors or similar companies. You're not trying to figure out the difference between Apple and Proctor and Gamble. Sites like Finnvvis.com, Seeking Alpha, or Morning Star are all good for this because they have sidebyside comparisons.
Finnvvis.com has a lot of very cool visuals and lets you see groups of stocks or industries by certain time periods, which helps with my research, and it's free. One cool feature on Alpha Spread from before is when you scroll near the bottom to a section called competitive landscape, you can see other stocks and companies in the same industry or similar, and you can go do your own assessment.
Now, I've just told you a bunch of different things to go look for, but one of the biggest things is the red flags to watch out for. Look out for high debt with low cash flow. Look out for one-time earnings boosts. Look out for shrinking margins or revenue. And obviously, management turnover or dilusion.
Just know that certain specific numbers can be fudged. Accounting can be shown to look a little bit better than it actually is, especially for these earnings reports. This is why I never just look at one earning report or look at a a stock that's done well for maybe like three months, six months and say that's a good stock to buy into.
I want to see it over years. Most of my stock picking are companies that have been around for 20, 30, 40 years. And definitely my ETFs are ones that have at least a 10-year history. I want to see some data in good markets and in bad markets. Remember, before doing any of that quantitative, any of those numbers and formulas type things, make sure you understand the business.
The qualitative type research is very tough to do and time consuming, but that's my specialty. That's what I like to do and that's why I'm a business professor. This is also why my clients love to meet with me because I can help that specifically. We also go over that specifically in the Patreon group.
The link's down below and it's only $20 per month to join the exclusive group where I give out my stock picks as I buy them and also explain what's going on in the market way before I post here on YouTube. Check out that now and come join the group. To learn more about stock investing, check out this video that I did that kind of sums up everything I've learned in the last 18 years.
Or check this video out that I just did this week to keep you going strong in investing. Remember to keep investing simplified.
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