저자: NolanGoa · 외국인
요약 보기
QQQM·VGT·SPMO 세 성장 ETF를 소개하며 장기 수익률과 분산 특성을 설명. SPMO는 하락장 방어력이 상대적으로 좋고 모멘텀 기반 재구성이 강점이라고 평가. 최종 제안은 SPMO 40%, QQQM 40%, VGT 20%의 비중이며, VGT는 고평가 우려로 비중을 낮추고 조정 시 1/3씩 분산 매수하겠다는 입장. 장기 투자 관점이며 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
It's no secret that if you want your portfolio to skyrocket, you need to be invested in the best funds. To add firepower to my portfolio, I choose to invest in some growth ETFs because they harness all the stocks skyrocketing to the moon right now and make it so that the gains are insane. Three huge ETFs that I invest in right now that are absolutely amazing are QQQM, which is the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF, VGT, which is the Vanguard Information Technology ETF, and SPMO, which is the Invesco S&P 500 momentum ETF.
Looking at some quick numbers, QQQM for the one-year is at 23.66% and for the 10year at 20.33% on average each year. VGT for the one years at 27.9% and the 10-year average of 23.45% per year. And SPMO for the one years at 34.51% and for the past 10 years, it's had an average of 18.53% per year. So the average between the three for 10 years is about 20%.
To put that into perspective, if you had $10,000 to invest today and you invested just $500 per month in a fund or group of funds that averaged 20% per year over the next 30 years, you'd have 9,465,052. Remember that past performance doesn't equal future performance, but each of these funds does have a fairly solid long-term data track record and has been returning some outrageous numbers consistently.
Now, all three of these have monster returns. They're all very diversified and they have much history with lots of data. So, we can forecast and reasonably be able to expect a certain style of return from each one of these, but one of them definitely reigns supreme. If you were just going to invest into one of these, there's a clear winner.
I'm going to give you a very quick breakdown of each one so that you have a high-level understanding of what each one is and why it may be smart to hold it in your portfolio. But then also, I'll explain which one is the clear winner and even how I'll be investing in each one of these in 2025 and 2026 with the crazy AI revolution we're about to enter.
My name is Nolan Goa. My students call me Professor G, and I made this channel to make investing simplified. Remember that all investing carries risk, so do your own research. This is not financial advice, and I'm not a financial adviser. So, the first one I'll go over today is QQQM. And this one is so important because it's a good broad growth ETF.
There's only one thing that's better than getting super high upside from your ETF, and that's making sure that you also have a little bit of downside protection, and you can mitigate some risk while still getting that upside. So, this is one of the best in both worlds for so many ways. QQQM has been one of the best performing major ETFs with an annualized return around 16 to 18% compared to about 10 to 11% for the S&P 500.
Its focus on growth in technology has led to long-term market beating compounding, especially during innovation cycles. While volatile, it has consistently recovered from drawdowns faster than most indexes because of the resilience of its core holdings. QQQM tracks the NASDAQ 100 index, which includes leading companies in technology, communications, and consumer sectors such as Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Google.
These firms dominate global innovation in AI, cloud computing, semiconductors, digital media, and ecommerce. Industries that are expected to grow faster than the broader economy. One thing to very much point out so that you understand why this is such a must in my portfolio is because of the idea that it is a broad fund.
Yes, the focus is on technology, but as you can see here, it's not purely technology, and that's important. It also has a significant portion in consumer discretionary, health care, telecom, industrials, and more. Very important to mitigate risk in the event that technology has a bad period. Their strong balance sheets, pricing power, and recurring revenue models give them long-term durability and profitability.
So instead of trying to time or pick the next Nvidia or Apple, you get a basket of top innovators and any new top innovators that might come through. and all of it's in one vehicle. Now, QQQM is the exact same thing as QQQ. They both follow the NASDAQ 100, but QQQ has a higher fee. QQQ has a fee of.20% where QQQM has a 0.15% fee.
So, I'd rather go with QQQM in my portfolio. All right, the next one on this list is VGT. And this one is going to blow you away. The overall total return from VGT from 2004 to today is over 1,750%. And looking here at the total annual returns, it's very easy to see that this fund has produced a lot of green with very few red years.
Few ETFs have matched VGT's ability to compound wealth through multiple economic and tech innovation cycles. VGT is much more concentrated. Where that one that I just showed you before is broad, this one's concentrated purely on technology. It's a passive ETF that aims to replicate the performance of the MSCI, US investable market information technology 2550 index.
This index represents the entire US tech sector from large caps like Apple and Nvidia to mid and small cap innovators. This is a key difference from QQQM because QQQM's purely large cap whereas now VGT has midcap and small cap giving you a lot more diversification within the size of companies and sometimes you find this hidden gem that's a small company and it turns into a big company and you get all that profit as it's growing.
Managed by Vanguard, it combines sector focus with institutional efficiency and low fees with this one having a very low 09% as the fee. VGT has delivered about a 23.5% annualized return over the past 10 years, among the best of any sector ETF. Even after volatility and corrections, long-term investors have benefited from compound growth fueled by expanding margins and recurring revenues in software and hardware businesses.
VGT gives you exposure to the US technology sector, including giants like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, and Palunteer. As you can see on the top 10 list here, these companies are literally the core infrastructure of the modern technology right now. One big thing to point out though is companies are included only if they're officially classified as information technology under the GIS or global industry classification standard system.
This excludes some tech adjacent names in communication like Google or Meta or consumer discretionary like Amazon. So, this is important to note. As you can see, they would normally be right there in the top 10. This is a strength in my opinion since you're likely holding a lot of those companies elsewhere.
So, this further diversifies you. I'm going to throw the returns up here one more time because this speaks for itself. Those yearly returns and the consistency is just beautiful. Okay, so this last ETF is the coolest in my opinion and I've been adding it heavy for many reasons. So, SPMO is the Invesco S&P 500 momentum ETF, which has an expense of just.13% and year-to- date, it's crushing it at 28.21%.
This one is so cool because the index tracks the performance of stocks in the S&P 500 index that have a high momentum score. The fund and index are reconstituted and rebalanced twice a year. So, this is the superpower of this fund, and there's really none like it. Momentum is the key strategy here. Sometimes we invest in funds like say the S&P 500 and we have a pretty good idea that there's going to be a period maybe a period of a year or two years where it kind of lags or it kind of drops a bit and we're okay with that because overall it's going to do very well long term.
So we kind of deal with this in the short term but longterm it keeps going up. But what momentum does is it takes track of what's happening in the short term and makes changes right then and there. It said it reconstitutes twice per year. So every six months it kicks out bad performers and increases the current winners in the S&P 500 to hopefully always have a very solid winning portfolio.
And it's currently almost doubled the S&P 500's return this year because of this strategy, but also very diversified still. As you can see here, technology only makes up about 34% of the fund, but then also heavy in financials, communication services, industrials, and a whole bunch of other sectors, which really mitigates risk big time.
SPMO constantly tilts towards winners, which is the stocks with the most positive momentum and just drops anything that isn't going in that direction. How it works. So, every 6 months, it looks at all the S&P 500 stocks. It measures their past 12-month performance. The strongest performance get the biggest weights in the fund.
The weakest ones get removed or reduced. Since inception, SPMO has often outperformed the S&P 500 during strong trend driven markets. It remains diversified, holding around a 100 large cap stocks, but with heavier weights in the market's best performers. This thing's just amazing because it was made to have higher highs, but then also higher lows, not letting a certain draw down drop even as much as the S&P 500.
Watch this. We can see that versus the S&P 500, the highs are even higher most years, but the lows are even higher. Specifically 2018 and 2022, you can see that when the S&P 500 dropped -4.57%, SPMO was only downg.92%. And then when the S&P 500 dropped big in 2022 for -18.18%, SPMO was only downg -10.46%.
The less bad negative years really sold it for me. If I have a fund that's going to give me very very solid returns when we're in a good market, but then when we're in a bad market, it's mitigating my risk and making it so that my portfolio doesn't even drop as much as that. That's pretty easy for me to keep in my portfolio.
So, which one wins? Well, it really depends on what you're looking for as far as the winner. Clearly, over the last decade or so, the one that's brought the most amount of growth is very clearly VGT. The issue, though, is that we're not going back in time in investing. We're investing for right now.
So, we need to focus on what's the best value for us today and what has the most possibility to grow the most in the next 10 years. Since we don't have a crystal ball and literally nobody can predict the future, we can just set ourselves up with the best chance to grow, but also with mitigating risk and making sure that we're as safe as possible as we do this.
In order to do this well, I would set up the growth portfolio as such. SPMO is, in my opinion, going to be the safest option of the three and provide the most diversification as well as the most downside protection since it dipped the least in bad times. Investing in these three, I'd go 40% SPMO. The next least risky but with amazing upside is then QQQM.
I believe in this fund wholeheartedly and think it will be a winner. I'd go 40% here as well. VGT has been the top dog for sure, but because of that, it's quite overvalued with all the technology companies within the fund being so expensive right now after all this runup. So, I'd want to temper expectations, but still include it.
So, I'd go 20% here. Now, we may see somewhat of a crash or a possible correction in the next 6 months or so. If that happens, I would definitely see technology companies and AI companies that have been going kind of crazy through all this hype being the ones that drop the most. And at that point, it's going to make VGT back into a better value territory.
And that's when I'd be scooping up even more of that fund. In that case, I would go a third of my investable amount of money into each fund at that point. So, a third in QQQM, a third in SPMO, and a third in VGT. But for now, the way things are literally today, I'd be going that 4020 portfolio that I was telling you from before.
And remember, this is just the growth portion of your portfolio. I hope your whole portfolio isn't just these three types of ETFs. I hope that you would have some value ETFs and maybe some foundational ones like the basic S&P 500 or total US stock market. But of the three of these ETFs, one that you should definitely get to know even better and dive deeper into is SPMO, which I made this video here to go even deeper into it.
You should definitely understand it before you invest in it. But as soon as I understood it, I started buying in heavy. Or watch this video to keep you going strong in investing. Keep investing simplified.
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