저자: DaveKrinsis/MikeAikens—사회자RonDelegie제외 · 외국인
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2020년 8월 ETFguide의 SOXL(반도체 3배) vs TECL(기술주 3배) 대결. 비용은 1% 안팎으로 차이 미미, 노출 측면은 TECL이 분산 우위, 성과는 최근 10년 SOXL 약 40배·TECL 약 44배, 나스닥100 3배 TQQQ 약 80배 언급. 두 심판은 단기 낙폭(2020년 1분기 약 80% 하락)과 변동성 위험을 강조. 최종 판정은 엇갈린 결과(split decision). 레버리지 상품은 트레이딩 도구로 사용하고 위험 인지가 필수라는 결론.
다듬은 글
welcome to the show i'm dr delegie and your prescription for today is two cups of coffee three jelly rolls and 25 servings of etf battles while i'm not sure if this is gonna guarantee you're gonna get better i'm more than confident it's going to make you feel better and our job is to make sure that your investment portfolio agrees i forgot to mention the jelly rolls are vegan and the coffee is organic you see you're feeling better already i told you so today's skirmish is between the direction daily semiconductor bull 3x shares that's ticker symbol s-o-x-l versus direction daily technology bowl 3x shares that's ticker symbol t-e-c-l both funds use 300 daily leverage as the 3x and the fund names indicate it's the second time in the history of this show that we're featuring leveraged etfs on the program and this battle is like ferrari versus lamborghini and i can already hear the screeching tires somebody's going to get a ticket i just hope that it's none of us by the way keep your etf battles coming hit us up on our youtube comments section be sure to include your ticker symbols you can also find us on twitter at etf guide etf battles we're only everywhere helping us to judge today's shoving match is mike aikens at etf action and dave krinsis at etf portfolio management the best in the business judges it's great to see you again thanks ron good to see you good to be here ron thank you so the four battle categories are cost exposure strategy performance and then the mystery category where you guys get to pick that one factor or several factors you feel are important to this particular battle and so we're going to go through each of these categories one at a time and at the end of the program we're going to declare a overall battle winner between these two etfs we can also end in a split decision but as you know i hate split decisions because i always like to see somebody win and so we'll see how this particular battle plays out anything can happen and we're going to begin with dave we're going to start with cost category you've got 30 seconds go well the expense ratio is just over one percent for technology three times tekkel and just under one percent for semiconductor three times soxel and given the volatility in these leveraged etfs their cost difference is immaterial so this battle on cost is a split decision very good that's a strong start let's shift to you mike how do you see it who wins the battle yeah i'm with dave here i think that uh debating one percent expense ratio on a product that can go up or down 60 inside of a month is really not worth the time or effort and i would say the only expense ratio to think about is the skull and crossbones warning labels that come with any three-time leverage product which i'm sure we'll have the opportunity to debate as we go along so toss-up on cost okay very good we need to move to the next battle category which is exposure strategy let's stick with you mike how do you see it all right so both um etfs are within the technology space 100 inside of technology the difference being that tekkel is going to try to capture the broad all of the sub sectors sub industries of technology whereas um sock cell is all about the breakdown of the semiconductor space they're both going to be top heavy with the biggest names um tekkel's going to have over 45 apple microsoft soxl is going to come with a lot of nvidia qualcomm so you're going to have exposure the largest things either way since they're both market cap and i think at the end of the day it really comes down to your view on the market that's why you're using these strategies if you're writing them out for a longer time i'd say tekkel if you're specifically looking for a reason a catalyst inside of the semiconductor space um you'd want to stick with saxel but they're both going to be highly correlated and they're both going to be very volatile i'm going to have to say that it's a toss-up again um and apologize but that's the way it is oh good that's all right that's sometimes how it shakes down let's shift to dave dave how do you see it in terms of exposure strategy who wins the battle well for exposure these two etfs are both concentrated sector funds and the big question to ask is do you really want more concentration when using leverage technology three times has 43 percent in microsoft and apple while semiconductor three times has 40 exposure in five big chip companies qualcomm broadcom and video texas instruments and intel and technology three times does have broader diversification albeit with a somewhat higher position concentration but it's time for an early etf battle wild card the nasdaq 100 three times has the bigger portfolio net that you need here because the broader market exposure includes companies like tesla and amazon that you really don't want to miss so tqqq is my favorite leveraged etf but in the absence of the tqs i give the strategy win to technology three times tekkel okay excellent and refresh my memory is that the american dream etf tqqqqq it sure is ron you know it well all right just wanted to confirm that let's move to performance um who wins the battle between saxel and teko dave will stick with you well this is where it really shakes out right investors should be very careful with risk assets especially when using leverage over the past decade 2018 and 2011 were difficult years for technology sector funds and tekkel held up far better than saxel in those down periods also in the first quarter of this year 2020 these leveraged technology etfs both fell by roughly 80 percent in four weeks however their long-term returns have been well worth extra volatility this past decade soxil returned 40 times your money and tekkel gave you almost 44 times and our wild card etf nasdaq 100 three times just returned 80 times your money let me say that again 80 times your money that's 10 000 growing to eight hundred ten thousand in ten years so we do now call tqq the american dream etf but for this battle the performance win goes to tekkel okay so tekkel wins on performance um mike how do you see it in terms of performance between these two etfs who wins i feel like looking at technology three times products in this current environment it's a little like playing monday morning quarterback and look how great i am um here's the deal these products are crazy volatile and if you stay the course there's the potential to add opportunity um however if you do not have the stomach for it um i believe they're best utilized as trading vehicles and to that extent from a performance standpoint it's going to come down to what you're trying to gain exposure to and just keep in mind that both of these strategies are just knocking the cover off of all-time highs every day so i would liken getting into either one of these strategies right now um like the guy who just takes all of his chips from a big winning on a blackjack table and doubles down and i think you have to think about the analogy there you're getting into a three-time levered product at all-time highs in the market um where do you think it's going to take you um and where is the risk reward benefit of that sort of volatility in this current market environment i just can't get either one of a winner i think they're trading vehicles and they should come with warning labels as such okay very good let's move on to the mystery battle category this is where our judges get to pick that that mystery factor where they think is important to the overall battle that we're discussing so mike what is your mystery battle category who wins it yeah so my mystery category is uh drawdown and drawdown over the last 10 years for both products there's been numerous occasions three times for tekkel where it's drawn down by more than 60 percent twice for i'm sorry three times for sock cell and twice for decl where you've lost over half of your money um in the last 10 years um basically inside of four weeks um so i don't have a winner i have a double loser and that is where i'm gonna stay with um understanding these strategies it's fine i actually believe that they're efficient way to gain leverage on the market used properly and allocated properly but as a investment vehicle and i think investments i think longer term horizon um i do not believe they belong in the uh conversation today we're going to shift to you on the mystery battle category between soxel and tekkel what is your mystery category and who wins so position weighting is my favorite mystery category because it's a big decision for most of your investments at etf pm we often cap leveraged sector etf exposure at 20 positions while the nasdaq 100 three times we cap closer to a 60 position so i give the portfolio waiting win to the wildcard etf tqqq but in its absence for this battle i'll call the portfolio waiting a split decision all right very good so now we're going to give our judges a final opportunity to weigh in between these two etfs and who the overall battle winner is we'll stick with you dave who is your overall winner between saxel and tekkel well to recap semiconductor 3x soxel is a great etf but technology 3x outperformed with somewhat lower volatility so i give the win on this battle to tekkel although our exposure is mainly in the wild card etf nasdaq 100 three times and regardless the extraordinary performance of these leveraged etfs along with spxl for the s p 500 and tmf for long-term treasury bonds these amazing returns all confirm our view that leveraged etfs are the future of investing and just lastly i want to say congrats to mike for his recent appearance on cnbc's fast money i'm a big fan of that show and the story about etn blow ups was important but the 80 times return in the tqs was the real fast money all right thank you very much and kudos to mike also for that fine appearance mike uh when your overall wow winner between soccer and tackle well uh first off i i wanna just say very broadly i think that leveraged vehicles used properly provide a very efficient way to gain exposure into certain areas of the market but then i'm going to stop there and say you need to understand what you're doing with them and they should be used properly in respect to an overall diversified portfolio uh dave has been working on a has written a book about how to use these strategies um if you haven't written a book about using these strategies i just encourage you to use them in little slices make a bullish call or a bearish call on the market it's a great way to get cheap efficient exposure but keep keep within your wheelhouse when it comes to diversifying and building an overall portfolio so my summary here is simply that understand the risks associated with these strategies understand the difference between daily resetting returns versus compounding resetting returns understand the mechanism of three-time leverage and how it compounds and understand why you would use it overall in a portfolio how you're hedging that exposure um so a long-winded answer to say my summary is these strategies should come with skull and crossbow and warning labels and it's not does not make them bad strategies you just need to understand how you're using them and have a plan before you hit that buy and click on that buy button okay so your overall battle winner between saxo and tekkel can't do it i just have to say it's a split decision between the two and it's based on what you're trying to achieve in your portfolio okay very good well our judges have weighed in and uh i'm gonna have to call this as a split decision between these two etfs our judges agreed on cost but they pretty much disagreed on everything else and that's pretty much how it works sometimes um a couple of the key takeaways from today's battle first of all leverage works wonderfully in sharply trending markets but not so well in flat or choppy markets drawdowns can be huge so do your due diligence and as the great peter lynch once said everyone has the brains to make money in stocks but not everyone has the stomach and so leverage you're going to test your stomach because there's going to be periods of time where you just want to puke but wasn't it uh i think it was paul tudor jones who said to do the trade that makes you puke i asked him paul what's your secret for trading do the trade that makes you puke so sometimes those are the trades that actually turn out to be the best but it's it's also the ones that test our fortitude and test our stomachs the most so that's uh i think the lesson our judges both made some great points and i want to thank you each for helping us to sort through this battle of ferrari versus lamborghini saxo versus techo we appreciate that and my question to you the audience which etf battles would you like to see next find us on our youtube comments section give us your ticket symbols be sure to hashtag etf battles on twitter at etf guide i'm ron dolege thanks for watching etf guide tv and until next time watch the battle before you invest
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