$HSY $IBB $TSLA - 3 Stocks I Saw on TV

요약 보기

결론: 이 영상은 헤르쉬(HSY) 단기 돌파 매수 의견과 바이오(IBB)·테슬라(TSLA)에 대한 관망 또는 비추천 의견을 담고 있다. 헤르쉬(HSY): 옵션 시장에서 비정상적인 거래가 포착되며 인수합병 기대가 제기되었으나, 발언자는 인수설보다 기술적 돌파 자체에 주목한다. 하루 3% 상승과 평균 대비 2배 이상 거래량을 근거로 제시하며, 지지선은 94달러로 본다. 94달러 아래로 떨어지면 돌파는 가짜 돌파이므로 롱 포지션을 피해야 한다. 전반적으로 좋은 아이디어가 부족한 시장이라 이런 돌파가 한동안 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 구체적인 목표가는 제시하지 않았고 110달러를 언급하며 그 가격을 쫓아갈 생각은 없다고 했다. 바이오(IBB): 2016년 대선 후보(힐러리 클린턴, 트럼프) 발언이 바이오 업종에 부담이 될 수 있다는 이야기가 오가지만, 발언자는 누가 당선되든 중요하지 않고 시간의 흐름이 핵심이라고 본다. 현재 박스권 횡보 구간이므로 매수하지 않고 관망하며, 아래쪽 저점 부근에서 매수 관점을 고려하겠다고 했다. 10월 말에 다시 이야기하자고 했다. 테슬라(TSLA): 6만 6천 달러 대의 저가형 모델 S 발표 소식을 전했으나, 주행거리 제한 등 소프트웨어 잠금 방식에 의문을 표했다. 차트가 지저분해 현재 거래를 권하지 않으며, 240달러 이상으로 돌파하면 모멘텀 매매로 8~10% 정도 수익을 노려볼 수 있다고 했다. 직전에 샀던 콜옵션은 손실로 정리되었다고 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 발언자는 전반적으로 시장이 고점 부근에 있다고 보면서도, 헤르쉬의 돌파는 당분간 지속될 수 있다는 단기적 낙관을 보였다. 리스크로는 헤르쉬 94달러 이탈, 바이오 업종의 정치 이슈, 테슬라의 차트 약세를 강조했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. every morning to get that I saw on TV. We're going to start with Hershey. Um, last night on Fast Money, Dan Nathan was talking about unusual option activity. um essentially thinking that this company might be a acquisition candidate. Okay, I get that. But most of you guys aren't options traders. This is unusual stock activity.

02. Um Hershey is not a particularly uh shall we say mobile um stock. You know, it doesn't really move that much. And so a 3% move in a day on volume. I don't really care about whether this whether the move is because there's a conjecture that maybe the company's going to be acquired. I think this is just a good technical breakout here.

03. Um all the better if the options warrant um this as well if if they support this. But this is a high volume breakout more than twice average volume. I would say support right now is 94 bucks. I've seen the way these types of breakouts have been trading lately. It wouldn't surprise me if the stock kept going for a bit.

04. I don't know how high I'm not the guy that's just going to pound the table going like, "Oh, you got to buy it before it gets to 110." I don't know. I just know that, you know, I've seen these types of breakouts and they tend to keep going for a bit. And frankly, I think some of it honestly is because there just ain't that many good ideas out there.

05. It's this is just the kind of market we're in. Everything is kind of toppy. Um the only I mean even the money in your pocket doesn't have a lot of value in it anymore. So, um the bottom line is I think this is a stock that works. Just if the stock falls below 94, then this breakout is a fake out and you don't want to be long.

06. instead go to the store and get one of those chocolate bars. Okay. IBB uh lot of chatter now about um with the uh Democrat Democratic nominee uh being more and more likely to be Hillary Clinton and then you got Donald Trump blah blah blah all this and that. So the question is what's the biotech going to do?

07. What's the biotech industry going to do? you know, Clinton, you know, has tweeted, you know, death to biotech. Um, Trump, big populist guy. So, the bottom line is nobody who's going into the White House, unless it's a lobbyist, nobody who's going into the White House likes biotech. They all want to uh, you know, cause, you know, drop prices, etc., etc.

08. You get the point. Here's my point. Okay, this is when the election's going to be somewhere out here. Like really, do you really do you really honestly think that you can game this one way or another? Seriously, this is total headline crap, I guess. Um, I'm not putting anybody down. I'm just saying it's all interesting.

09. Very interesting to think about. Oh, what's going to happen with Oh, what's going to happen to the banks if you know Donald Trump like war on Wall Street, Hillary Clinton, my god, they're in it together. They both hate Wall Street. They're going to go after the banks. Guys, it's in November. Okay, let's deal with this planet here.

10. We'll deal with that later. Here's my suggestion on IBB. By the way, the previous rant was absolutely apolitical. I'm not talking about either candidate. I'm talking about the calendar. Okay, this is in a sideways congestion phase here. I don't want to be a buyer here because so far this is really where the sellers have lived.

11. I want to be a buyer down here because this is where the buyers have lived. Even here when we're in no man's land here, I think this is just no trade. It's a watch. It's really interesting, I guess, but this is a volatile sector anyway. You know, it's biotech for crying out loud. Don't seriously just don't waste your time even caring about what one candidate or the other is going to do.

12. Um, and in biotech, and by the way, it doesn't matter who wins. It's the passage of time. Who gives a rip? I don't. Talk to me in late October and then then we'll chat again. Okay. Tesla. Last one here. Um big news today. Elon Musk announces that they're going to be um selling a cheaper Model S to like 66,000 bucks is the base price.

13. Sure, that's cheap. Uh 66,000 bucks is a base price. And apparently the deal is it's going to have a limited still be able to, you know, to uh fill up your electrical tank for free at the charging stations, but it's going to be limited to like 200 miles. 200 miles a gallon. 200 miles uh a tank uh on your range as opposed to what you I I don't know what my I have one and uh I guess it's above 200, but I just go from charging station to charging station because it's very lonely being on the side of the road uh with an empty tank of electricity.

14. Um but the idea here is that they've got software that's going to keep the mileage down. And if you want more mileage, all you have to do is pay him more money and you can unlock the software code, which seems a little funky to me. But, you know, whatever floats your boat. Elon got to get to Mars. So, my suggestion here on Tesla is I wouldn't be trading this right now.

15. I thought that we were going to have a breakout here. We actually at Option Market mentor, I don't just tell you the good stuff. Um, bought some calls the other day and those got closed out for a loss. wasn't happy about that. But now this is just a crappy chart. It It doesn't have the Oh, here's a breakout, a possibility for a breakout, and it moves to 270.

16. Great. I don't see that. Now, um this is still a stock that's just chopping around. I would literally do nothing with this. If the stock starts breaking out above 240, okay, then it's a momentum trade and you can take it for like 8 or 10%. But even then, I got to emphasize the fact that this is a brutal chart.

17. There's nothing in here. It looks like somebody ate a box of toothpicks, couldn't get them swallowed, barfed them up on a piece of graph paper, and then wrote Tesla on the middle of it. So, it's not a great chart. Um, I don't think there's a trade here right now. At least not a safe one. Okay. I'm Dan Fitzpatrick, stockarketmentor.com. Hope to see you over there.