저자: DanFitzpatrick · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라는 단기 추가 상승 촉매가 보이지 않아 공매도 시도 가능성이 언급되지만 비추천 쪽, 뉴웰 러버메이드와 알코아는 지지선 부근 매수 기회로 제시. 테슬라: 2월 바닥 이후 꾸준히 상승했고 신차 주문 적체가 있다. 모델3 리콜(3열 좌석 래치 문제)이 발표되었으나 인명 피해가 없어 신뢰도 측면에서는 긍정적으로 평가. 다만 다음 상승 촉매를 찾지 못했고, 270달러 부근에서 고거래량 천장(클라이맥스) 후 분배 국면으로 보여 단기 공매도를 고려할 만하다고 언급. 동시에 추세 역행 공매도는 권하지 않으며, 270달러 상단 위에 손절(매수 스톱)을 두라고 함. 테슬라 저점 매수는 리스크 관리 계획이 있을 때만 권장. 뉴웰 러버메이드(NWL)와 잭슨(JAH): 잭슨 인수 건을 크레이머가 긍정적으로 본 것에 동의. 뉴웰은 인수 완료 후 실행력이 있다고 평가. 공매도 잔고가 높아 숏 스퀴즈 가능성을 언급하되, 차익거래 세력이 얽혀 있을 수 있다고 조심스럽게 짚음. 잭슨이 60달러를 넘으면 뉴웰도 46달러 이상으로 갈 수 있다고 봄. 현재 저가에서 뉴웰 매수 가능, 바닥이 상당히 의미 있어 보여 장기적으로 상승을 전망. 알코아(AA): 실적은 매출이 소폭 부진했으나 시장 예상을 웃도는 이익을 기록. 주가는 200일 이동평균선 바로 위에서 하락 중이며, 50일선이 골든크로스 직전에 있다고 봄. 200일선 부근 지지에서 매수하고 50일선 바로 아래에 트레일링 스톱을 두는 전략 제시. 다음 날 하락 후 지지 확인 시 진입 가능하며, 전일 종가 회복 시 약 5~6%, 박스 상단 도달 시 약 8% 수익을 기대. 지지선이 깨지면 이 분석은 무효. 출연자 전망: 테슬라 단기 조정 가능성과 리스크 관리 강조, 뉴웰/잭슨은 중기 상승, 알코아는 지지선 확인 후 단기 반등 기대.
다듬은 글
make our money right the next morning on a stock today I want to start with Tesla now here's the deal you know they've been had good news bad news and through it all the stock has just continued to move higher here uh since bottoming in early February here's the dealio um they have on their new car they've got a boatload of orders that of course they're not going to be able to fill for a long time then we just hear today that their model three which I think they've only got like 25 2700 cars out there it's a recall yep that's right they're taking a poan on it um and telling uh their consumers not to ride in the third seat until they get this fixed because the latch might um might not hold okay look I'm not going to dog on Tesla about this frankly I think they dodged a bullet um not that I would expect them to cover up this kind of thing I think that was a Ford deal if I'm not mistaken um but the thing is for them to have something like that and not have any fatalities or anybody injured on this that's a good thing for this company so I look at this frankly as a credibility Builder however with that said I'm also looking and trying to figure out what the next Catalyst for this stock to move higher would be and I just can't find one now I do not Advocate going against the trend in other words I don't Advocate shorting into an uptrend TR I just don't um I know you can find the top sometimes just like buying into a downtrend you can find the bottom sometimes but there's a reason why they say the trend is your friend and it's because it sticks with you a lot longer than you think it would but here's the thing I do I'm really really tempted to short Tesla right at this level and then keep a buy stop right up here uh hang on I got the wrong color and I'm just being real stubborn today I'm going to make sure it's the right one literally keep a buy stop just right up a little bit above 270 it just seems to me like when you look at this okay we see the big this is like a climax High it looked like with all this volume and then on the last 3 days of distribution it's all um higher than average volume so that tells me that the accumulation is kind of you know morphed into distribution I wouldn't be buying Tesla on this dip if you do just make sure you've got a risk management plan in place because I think you probably need it um okay newal Rubbermaid so they're uh buying jardan and Kramer was talking about this in some detail last night on Mad Money and the upshot is this um he likes new uh he and so do I I got half half of my containers are in my bachelor's drawer uh with all of them there love newal rubber mid he thinks this company can execute when they've completed the acquisition and I really can't disagree here's the thing this company this has a fairly High short interest and I don't keep something in mind don't just look at the short interest and say oh we're going to see a short squeeze this could seriously be one of those instances where you've got arbitragers who are short new rubber made but they're long jardan don't know whether that's the case here let's go to the right chart don't know whether that's the case but I can see that happening bottom line I think jardan if it starts moving above 60 bucks you're going to see new Rubbermaid moving above 46 bucks either one of them works for me I'm just with Kramer though take newal Rubber Maid take it on this weakness it's still kind of technically in this consolidation but this to me looks like a pretty significant bottom I think ultimately this stock goes higher and then the last one is Alcoa they reported earnings after the Bell um their revenues came in a little light but they had an earnings beat of course nobody really expected much of them so you know when nobody expects much of you it's kind of easy to exceed expectations um still stock is down but it's down right at the 200 day moving average I feel like this is a stock that this could if I'm not an aluminum guy it's just me although I have some titanium in my knees um but I I think if you want to be looking at Alcoa to buy this could be your opportunity to buy it seriously because you can see the stock if you've been studying my chart workor at all you know I like these kinds of situations these kind of conditions when a stock is running right along this two almost just picture perfect right along the 200 day moving average within a big downtrend 50-day moving average almost ready to cross over so all we're looking for is a spark to push that thing higher we didn't get it on earnings but what you are getting is an opportunity to buy this at a lowrisk level so you you buy it near the support level and then you keep a trailing stop just right underneath the 50-day moving average so if this stock is down tomorrow morning and it probably will and maybe you're looking at this video um on the morning of Tuesday morning if it's down here and then it holds that's when you can buy this stock and by the way if if you buy it and it just goes back to the prior day close that's a five or six% return in not very long a period of time and if it just goes up to the top of the range that's an 8% return so um the bottom line is I think this stock is consolidating and as long as this level holds it's going to give you a good entry to buy this tomorrow if it doesn't hold by the way forget what I just said okay that's it for today I'm Dan Fitzpatrick at stockmarketmentor.com I'll see you next time
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