저자: Kevin · 외국인
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로빈후드가 토큰화(테스트넷/유럽 진출 등)와 USDG 스테이블코인 등을 발표했다. 발표의 핵심은 로빈후드의 수익 구조(시장조성자 리베이트, 유동성이 낮을수록 스프레드와 수익이 커짐)이며, 토큰화는 비상장 주식·부동산 등 접근성을 넓히되 규제 부담은 여전하다고 설명한다. 로빈후드 주가는 상승했고 반도체 섹터는 약세, 서클 등 금융주는 강세라고 언급한다. 스테이블코인 수익률은 국채금리에 연동되어 금리 하락 시 함께 낮아진다고 본다.
다듬은 글
Robin Hood announced a bunch of stuff today. And if there's one bottom line that you need to know from all of it, it's more money for Robin Hood. Because after all, that's the goal of Robin Hood. Robin Hood's goal is not to just give you a shiny app or to have users on the app. Those are all things that lead to the end.
The end is more money. And how does Robin Hood make a lot of money? Well, through rebates from market makers. That already probably sounds really complicated, but just know this. Anytime a transaction takes place, and it doesn't matter what you're trading, you could be trading Pokemon coffee mugs, Pokemon cards, real estate, stocks, bonds, private equity, uh, options, perpetual futures, who cares?
Robin Hood does not give a fly in hoodie duty what it is you want to trade. You could be trading bets on sports odds or the odds of geopolitical events happening like what are the odds Trump's going to strike a run. These platforms do not give a flying hoodie duty what it is you are trading. And the more options that they can give you to take your money and buy and sell stuff, the more money they make.
And that's what Robin Hood's event today was all about. Because ultimately, here's a very, very overly simplified primer of how this works. When you sell a poop, okay, so let's say we've got a nice little flaming pile of poop right here, okay? And we want to sell this. Well, what we're going to do is we're going to put a box around it and we're going to slice this up into, let's say, 10 slices.
Okay? So, we now have 10 shares of poop. Well, the best user experience is that when you go into the Robin Hood app and you say, "I want one share of poop." And I swipe up. Do you really want to sit around and wait for someone else to sell one share of poop? No. So instead, a market maker has inventory and they're going to sell you that one share of poop from their inventory.
In exchange for doing this, they're going to take a spread. So let's say each of these 10 shares of poop are worth $1. Well, the market maker might go to you and say, "I will sell you that poop for $15 or I will buy poop from you for 95." Okay, this difference right here is called a spread. The spread is 10 cents.
Of that 10 cent spread, in this case, Robin Hood might get a rebate for basically sending the business to that market maker. And maybe that rebate is, let's say, 3 cents. I'm way oversimplifying how this works. But the whole point is Robin Hood does not care what is in this bucket. They care about the fact that people are doing this.
They're swiping up to buy and sell stuff. The market makers, they're the ones who hold the inventory of the piles of poop. And that gives users a good user experience. Have you ever like bought or sold a stock and it's just like or like an option? You see this a lot with options. It's just pinwilling like your order is just sitting there and you're waiting it for it to fill and you're like, "All right, I'll just change my price." And you just change your limits.
The more you change your limits, the more the market makers start salivating and go, "Oh, the spreads are so wide. Okay, okay, okay. I I'll I'll just I'll just inventory that." You know, whether you're selling an option, they'll buy it, or if you want to buy an option, they'll sell it to you. Right?
That's how brokers make money. They do not give a fly and poop what you're buying or selling or if you make money or lose money. Obviously, it's nice if you make money because you're likely to stay on the app, right? So, this is why they like to give you education and don't gamble and all this kind of sort of advice.
That said, Vlad's event today was all about, hey, we're gonna in the future create a Robin Hood chain so we can create essentially a realworld custody train and we're going to chain and we're going to tokenize a bunch of different assets whether it's bonds or private equity or real estate in the very long term.
That'll be the last thing that gets innovated or private company stock. So basically the presentation we got today was instead of a fl a flaming pile of poop because you don't really want to buy a flaming pile of poop, right? In this like box, what we're actually going to do is we're going to say, "Hey, you're going to buy shares of Open AI stock." Now, where does Robin Hood get OpenAI stock?
Well, either Robin Hood or a market maker, somebody goes and buys $200 million of OpenAI stock from some overpaid employee inside of the company who wants to sell. So, they now hold the private shares and then whoever bought them can go sell them at a premium. Like, I got OpenAI stock. I got the hot commodity cuz some employee sold it to me and then they turn around and and resell it.
You could do that today with like an equity zen or a start engine. The problem is it's a pain in the butt because often you have to be a qualified purchaser. You have to be an accredited investor. Robin Hood might be able to streamline some of this by filing, you know, regulation A offerings and and letting people invest in these private opportunities through their app.
Now, somebody's going to make money on this. Either Robin Hood's going to collect fees or sell it at a higher valuation or they're going to be wide spreads between what these market makers are charging. But the whole point is Robin Hood is trying to increase the amount of stuff that they have in this this box basically this slice, right?
So Robin Hood started, if you think about it, they started with US stocks, okay? Then they went into crypto because the spreads were huge. You can make a lot of money on crypto. Robin Hood makes as much money from crypto as they do on options. This is big, big money right here. So crypto and options, huge money.
US stocks, they actually make very little money every time you buy US stocks because it's very liquid. So, actually, the more illquid what the pile of poop is that they want to sell you, the more money they make. In other words, the bigger the spreads are. Cuz if you go swipe up on Apple stock, the spread might be one penny.
you go swipe up on, you know, some lowflat stock or, you know, a memecoin or a private equity option or whatever, the spread's going to be massive. The bigger the spread, the more the rebate, baby. That's how Robin Hood makes money. So, if they can now get into private equity or tokenized assets, their spreads might actually be even bigger.
It's more money. And this is what they're announcing today is that in Europe, they're going to allow you to buy US stocks by tokenizing it. So basically, every time somebody says, "Hey, I want $200 of Apple, Robin Hood will go buy the $200 of Apple, and they'll give you a token which represents that $200 of Apple that they hold." Now, obviously, this creates some issues.
First of all, are the regulators okay with this? because you're bypassing European stock registration regulation. Presumably, Robin Hood has figured that out and they're not trying to scam European regulators because they invited regulators to their event. It also creates some issues like, well, what if Robin Hood loses my Apple stock?
Well, they probably custody it over at the DTCC. So, it's probably not a Robin Hood issue. It's probably at some other higher level entity, right? Or some bank like a JP Morgan or whatever, right? The point is that's probably less of the issue. The issue is that Robin Hood or the whole point of the announcement is trying to create ways for people around the world, specifically now in Europe where they're expanding their platform to to invest in US stocks without those US stocks having to list in Europe.
You know, I gave this example of House Hack. If I wanted to sell House Hack to where you could just swipe up on Robin Hood, I could IPO House hack. So, it's my real estate startup house hack.com. You've heard about it before. We pay a 5% yield uh through conversion uh and then you get all the upside in the stock.
It's open to nonacredit investors. Now, one of the reasons I know so much about sort of the broker dealer world is because I've gone through broker dealer licensing series 27, 24, 14, uh the financial advisory 65, the 63, the SA, like I've done all these, the seven. There's a lot of legal and compliance work that's involved.
Where tokenization is really great is you basically have t plus zero. That means there's no settlement delay, which means you don't have fail to deliver or fail to receives that you have to deal with because there's no lag in when money shows up and tokens transact. So you actually have a faster system and it's a system that potentially enables you to say, "Hey, you want to sell that house hack stock in America?
Cool. You have to IPO in the New York Stock or on the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ. Cool. That's very expensive and it takes a lot of effort work to do, but it's okay. You could do that. You got your PCAOB audits, your securities compliance and everything, which we already have almost all of that.
If I now want to sell these shares in Germany, I might have to and I want people to be able to swipe up in the Robin Hood version of of Germany. You know, you can now I think you can now download the Robin Hood app in Germany actually. I would have to IPO potentially in the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
Well, now I have to be subject to German uh regulation, German audits, German securities filings, German attorneys. It's a lot of work. Or Vlad can just go in and go, "You know what? Just buy a token of Kevin's house hack and then Vlad will go buy the actual underlying house hack shares and he'll hold them or I'll custody him at a bank or DTCC or whatever." Uh, and all of a sudden you have skipped a lot of extra burden for companies to be able to share sell their shares.
So what does this mean for people? Well, it really makes no difference unless things go poopy dupy. Like if there's some kind of market panic and for some reason the tokenization system breaks, that would be a big risk. Other than that, the cool thing, the upside of it is you could now basically hold that deed, the ownership of your shares, the token, which is really just a representation of your ownership, and you could go send it to your friend yourself.
But then that also opens the door to questions of like, are you now selling securities in the United States? There's like a lot of regulatory big old question mark over here. The the big bottom line of this whole event is Robin Hood introducing tokens enables them probably to sell more stuff and make more money per swipe.
That's the whole point. So like everything they announced is good for the stock, good for the company, good for their revenues. How they figure out all the regulation between all these different countries to be determined. Are there downsides of tokens? Yes. But there are also upsides of tokens. Like again, tokenization faster.
No fail to delivered, no fail to receive. Uh it's much easier for compliance. In the future, it's going to be cheaper. You could do this 24/7. Tokenization is great. But remember, when you're tokenizing private equity, you're really just tokenizing somebody's ownership that they sold out, maybe an employee or whatever.
You can buy this stuff now at Equity Zen or Stard Engine or whatever. And if you see, oh, I have to be an accredit investor. Well, you probably have to be an accredited investor at Robin Hood as well, unless they do their own regulation, a nonacredited filing. So, tokenization sounds great, but you still have to do all of the legal regulation.
It's kind of like people tell me, they're like, "Hey, Kevin, why not, you know, tokenize house hack real estate?" We can do that, but we would have to do twice as much work as we do now. Because if I were to say to you, I want to sell you 10% of all the houses hack owns via a token. We would have to go do a nonacredited offering if we wanted nonacredited investors.
So almost everyone, we'd have to do a reggae filing. We'd have to get a legal opinion. We'd have to get an audit uh for that specific fund. It'd probably cost us 40 to $60,000 in audits and attorney fees and everything. Yeah, GPT probably writes it all, but you still need those legal professional opinions.
And then we could sell that 10% to uh nonacredit investors. And now if we sell that to nonacredit investors, we have to maintain a ledger of those shares. And if we tokenize it, we double the work. We do a token and a ledger because the way US regulation is kind of behind right now is you have to do both.
You do the token and the ledger. In the future, hopefully you could just do the token, but you're still going to have to go through that securities registration process. So tokenization has a lot of great in the background functions for making things cheaper. You know, Robin Hood is partnering on USDG, a stable coin.
And I think people are going to hear stable coin. They're going to go, "Oh, it's going to be like circle. It's going to moonlike circle maybe, but you need to see the partners that are involved in USDG DG. Uh, unlike USD, whatever. I I wrote some of these things down. Unlike circles, USDG is all of these different partners.
So, you're probably going to see way less stable coin profit. Uh, and in the future, I kind of expect stable coin profit to basically converge to near zero because everybody's going to have their own stable coins. Visa and Mastercard will have stable coins. Walmart, Amazon all have stable coins, whatever.
But they did mention this. Now, the whole point of everything that they announced today is access. They want European users to be able to buy US stocks and ETFs. They want you to be able to access private equity. The tokenization thing is really just the representation of your ownership. It's like the pink slip on your car.
When you have a loan on your car, you don't actually hold pink slip. Some bank trustee holds your pink slip. When you pay off your car, you get the pink slip. The token is nothing other than the pink slip. Like you can still drive the car and not have the pink slip. I know that's a little complicated to think about, but think about it kind of like a deed on a property.
A token is really no different than the deed of your ownership of the property. It records your ownership interest. It just does it faster on blockchain because and it's public. Everybody could see it, which obviously reduces costs for the inter intermediaries in the long term. But anyway, there were some questions that came up with this.
Some people were wondering like, well, you know, what is the potential that this like bubbles up valuations more? Well, if more people want to buy Apple stock, yeah, valuations could actually go even higher by enabling Europeans to just go buy all of this. Now, other companies have already been doing this.
They have, you know, European versions of Tesla stock. They have uh, you know, Binance has uh, international stocks that they've basically already tokenized. So, this is just specifically to Robin Hood. It's them getting into this game that has already been done by others in the past. Uh theoretically, you could also self-custody the token, but you wouldn't self custody the share if you're not in the United States.
So, you're kind of one step removed from the actual ownership of the underlying share. Uh somebody then asked me, you know, why like, you know, Vlad mentioned this word burn, which sounds like a dirty, potentially scammy word. That's because when you hear of meme tokens that are like, "Oh yeah, we're going to burn some of it to lower the outstanding supply to increase the price of the meme token or whatever, people usually associate burning with like it should be good for the underlying holders, but there's always a yeah, but and then like rug pulls come out of it." So, I don't think people really resonated with what Vlad was saying with this burn phrase.
So, I think an easy way to think about the I is this. Let's say you say, you know what, I want to buy like we just, you know, let's say you're like, "Hey, I want to buy $200,000 of House Hack, but I want Vlad to buy it for me." Okay, so you give $200,000 to Vlad. Vlad buys House Hack stock. Uh, and then Vlad gives you uh gives you the token to represent that interest.
Uh oh, I guess I never shared my screen. There you go. So, it's $200,000. You give it to Vlad. Vlad goes and buys the underlying stock. Vlad gives you a token. And you now have that token ownership of that $200,000 which you could transfer to your friends or whatever, subject, obviously the securities regulation.
Now, if you undo this and you're like, I want my $200,000 back, then what you do is you burn the token. Vlad sells that house hack and then Vlad gives you your $200,000 back theoretically or whatever the value is at the time, right? That's what they're doing. And the whole thing is Vlad doesn't want to actually hold the underlying.
He just wants to transact. Remember, why does he want to transact? He wants to transact because that's how Robin Hood makes money. So again, it doesn't matter what's in the basket. It just matters that they're selling stuff. The more illquid it is, the more money Robin Hood will make. That's why crypto and options make a lot of money for Robin Hood because they're very illquid compared to US stocks on NY or NASDAQ.
Private equity is even more illquid. So presumably would make even more money for Vlad, which is brilliant. Like I I love the guy. I think he's brilliant. But this is hopefully where where you understand what they're doing is just opening access to people to get what they want. Exposure to US ETFs or stocks or in the future real world assets or whatever.
And yeah, it potentially creates some more buying pressure and potential overvaluation concerns, but that's different, right? Technically, if you have more people holding something, there should be more stability and less volatility. Now, I know some people are like, like I see some comments here. They're like, "Oh, like how's this different from FTX or Sam Bankman Freed or whatever." So, the thing about FTX is that FTX was not a broker dealer, right?
So, and I'm not trying to like shill for the like the whole like Robin Hood here, even though I love Robin Hood and I probably would shill for Vlad and Robin Hood, but uh the point is that's not the point of this video. Uh, if anything, I'd love to show you House Hack. Get your exposure to real estate.
Go to househack.com. Read the investor paperwork and the risks related to investing in private equity. Anyway, the Robin Hood is a licensed broker dealer, which means they have really strict custody compliance in terms of who holds the underlying assets. Uh, FTX was not a broker dealer. Uh and then they they were able to essentially self-custody which then removed that that sort of level of security that you get by having like the DTCC custody your assets.
These are a lot of really big entities and names and words and stuff. But the point is, you know, here's a US regulated company. This was not a US regulated company. Worth understanding the difference. Now, a lot of people really liked FTX because it gave them access to like 40x leverage on crypto or gave them a tool to buy crypto back then.
But most creators, myself included, would always say, "Don't keep your money on an exchange." So, like, if you're going to use an exchange, you buy there and then you take your your you self custody, get it off, put it on a hard cold, you know, hard wallet, cold storage, whatever you want to do, and uh and get it out of these exchanges because you don't want to rely on that broker dealer.
That's less of an issue with something like Robin Hood just because they are so US regulated. But yeah, broker dealers do fail in the United States. And that's where in the United States we have something called Cypic. Uh and it's kind of a way it's sort of like FDIC. It's a little different. There are differences.
You should look up the differences between Cypic and FDIC. But it's basically a way to help you get some of your securities back should a broker dealer fail. But mind you, they're custodied somewhere else. So even if a broker dealer fails, technically the underlying assets aren't at the broker dealer anyway.
They're somewhere else. So CIPIC really only applies when there's a loss above and beyond, you know, what was custodied elsewhere and what was able to be redeemed. So I understand all this stuff is really, really complicated. Uh, and so I'm just going to like bottom line this as simply as possible. All these announcements from Robin Hood are exactly what Robin Hood should be doing.
It's exactly what Vlad should be doing. And there's a reason the entire finance space is rocketing right now because well, first of all, Circle gets everybody a big boner right now. Uh because it's the stock has just done so well uh to the dismay of like Visa and Mastercard. The people at Visa and Mastercard are fuming right now.
Uh me meanwhile Visa already does you know stable coin backend work internally and so do many other companies like JP Morgan has had a stable coin that they've had in the works for years. Uh Circle is just the most public of that if you will. But these these financial companies are doing really well today and it doesn't really matter what it is.
It could be a company like Dave that literally hands away money to get people to sign up for their account which helps them continue to show user growth which helps their stock skyrocket. It's kind of like a brilliant bubble that guaranteed will pop one day, but for now it's just going to the moon. So you maybe you can ride that wave for now.
But look at the fun the financials. It's insane. Uh really a topic for a different video, frankly. Uh but the financial sector is doing pretty decently. I mean Hood's up 10%, Sofi's up 9%. Carvana and a firm up a little bit, but finances are doing really well today to the downside of like the semis sector.
As you can see, just like what we talked about in our alpha report, we're unlikely to hold these these mid 140s lines. And sure enough, we're now bouncing off the low 140s. See, the lines are working quite well right here. Uh just like what I said on Circle, I said that people would be taking profit on Circle and don't get caught up in in a run on Circle today.
people are probably going to take their profits again. Also, in our , I suggested this would be a risky spot. Uh, so check that out if you haven't yet over at me.com. But anyway, broadly, so like bottom line on hood, more stuff to sell you, more tendies for Vlad, and maybe one day I can have a nice suit like what Vlad had for his presentation in the French Riviera.
Uh, so yeah. Oh, okay. I mean, there's a question here. Is Hood going to have a cash sweep problem if Hood get if Trump gets his way with cutting rates to 1%. It doesn't matter what interest rates are. They will just pay you what they are, right? So, example, if a stable coin, you could use a stable coin, you could use a bank, it replace it all for the same, but this question has come up before.
If a stable coin is paying you 4 and a.5% right now because they're paying you at all those treasury yields. If treasury yields go down to 1%, guess what they're going to pay you? 1% or maybe a little bit less. So there's a spread in there for them to make profit. If yields go negative, they might not buy treasuries at all.
They might just hold cash and then they basically yield zero. Or they hold treasuries that yield negative and then you yield negative in a negative rate regime. It it all balances out is the way to think about it. Uh, but I don't I don't see any particular risk theigh.
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