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morning. It's January 28th, 2026 and we have had a great set of earnings here this morning. AT&T, Starbucks, a lot of the tech ones yesterday. Got a couple of rumors, couple of government contracts and there was a couple of bad earnings as well too, but the real main event is PAL even though it's going to be a dud and then you get more big earnings after the bell and the focus is on the dollar from yesterday.
So, we got an exciting day ahead. We will see where it leads. But you know what we got to do? Before we ever will. And . So on behalf of the cult, the people here, the people not here, I want to give a huge special shout out all the active service, past service, anybody who has served this country. God bless you and thank you.
I hope you guys know you are very loved and appreciated. And the way I could show that is by I'm telling you, get a lawn term, save the 10%, own the land. I really want to see that come true. And I think your discipline and what you have learned in service will apply almost perfectly. So, God bless every single one of you and thank you to making their communities run echo.
But for real, man, we love all of you and thank you. If y'all doing it the right way, upholding your hypocratic oath, amongst other things. But . Send the church. Oh, it's game time, baby. Horna Chadonia. Chattonia. Oh man. Are you ready? Are you ready? So, I got a couple plays. I'm going to be watching IBM for the earnings front run.
Uh STX, Starbucks did very good. They actually did way too good. Uh Intel, they got a rumor with Nvidia. As post earnings, Sleep Number, you have a Travis Kelce uh investor deal and all of that. AI, they had some buyout talks. I don't think they know if that one's going to hit GRI Biotech and PDYN. Uh that is a government contract and there was a couple of more today too.
So either way it's going to be seeing what we do ahead of the earnings and then what do we do during the Fed and then after the bell you are going to get some action Chattonia. So we got two minutes to start. God bless America. And actually I need to go to the bathroom so let's get it baby. Are you ready?
Happy Wednesday. It is Wednesday. an ts. Can't beat on the ark. Want it easy or it and . Ill, ying it proud. Yeah, let's say it now. en . Amen. Game time. JP Morgan to match government contribution to Trump accounts. Well, okay. All right, man. Let's see what we got. Are you guys ready? Are you ready?
Oh, I hope we could get a good one. And then where is this, dude? Starbucks. Snap is spinning off their glasses, too. If only they used the Ray-B bands in 2016. They had a shot 10 years ago. Yeah. And silver's still up, too. Watch for the stall. There was some China stuff. 3 2 1. Round one, fight. All right, let's see what we got.
Pop. I'm in a co. Oh, I don't know if those will hit. And then where's net? S&P hit 7,000 points for the first time. So yeah, you already you melted up yesterday after the bell, but it started to work its way up. Yeah, I think you're already there. Let's see. Hope that won't film me. In again, Intel has a rumor with Nvidia and then the CFO bought a bunch of stock.
Uh, he bought 4,000 shares and it wasn't like a what's it called? It wasn't like a It was a weird uh it wasn't like a 10B5 trading plan. Hold on. I'm trying to get something here. They won't film me. This is stupid. All right. Nice. I'm surprised that one filled. All right. So be very careful. Then where?
Oh, I forgot too. Your metas. And then where's STX? Intel's still climbing away. Yeah, STX. I think that one's right there. Unh on the high as well. Oh [ __ ] they filled that. All right. Well, I got out of the STX. Those hit, but there's a fat spread, but it filled 100% above. I didn't think it would.
spa new alltime highs, son. Let's see. Yeah, bro. 7,0002. You're already coming back down a little bit again. There was a lot of different names here moving. But yeah, those STXs are getting a lot of demand. I'm pretty surprised that one biotech. Dude, the SD dude, the STX hit. I'm shocked. I put an order above like 100% and the spread was like 200 but it filled it so I'm down.
But that's either that means it's either going to rip or that one's that's it. That's all you get. That's all you get. Where's your boy Travis Kelce? I don't I don't know. Does Travis Kelce hit the same way? I haven't heard of Taylor Swift in a minute. But yeah, Sleep Number and Travis Kelce. That's that's up to you.
I don't know how you're going to take that. Okay, let's see what else we got. Oh, copper is up today, too. Don't film. Yeah, dude. All the semis, I mean, you had Asmill, doubled expectations. They actually faded. I mean, FFIV kind of kind of different, but a lot of the other uh chip stocks, STX, TXN, they held up that narrative.
And then just earnings in general were pretty great this morning. There's a couple that didn't do as good. Damn. STX rocketing now. So, I just did another 3 4%. No way. Oh my gosh, dude. Those places what I sold it at was Wow. It just doubled up again. All right. Well, that sucks. But very, very good.
Very very good man. You know they make it a move. Not a bad spread on that one is crazy. PPG missed expectations. Only Sydney Sweeney move stocks. I feel like, haven't we seen a Travis Kelce play? Like, not in football, but like I think I think I've seen this before. 150. I think the previous high the previous high before the Elliot, I think maybe 154.
Yeah, 154ish. That's where it kind of topped out last year. 157 really because then that'll be higher than any point in 2026 or 2025. USAR still dumping the giving it away. Yeah, that one's still again that's kind of how I feel about the Paladine. It's going to kind of do that get a contract and then start to fade a little bit.
Where is it? Iron still climbing again. There is some space stuff too. Oh, your boy NTSK, that one gapped up a little. Actually, that's lower than yesterday. And then NET coming down as well. Again, a lot of these that had big gains, they just kind of sell until it's going to stabilize. Oh, where's silver?
Yeah, silver's starting to rocket up here a little bit. Uh, hot dog. Where are those? Uh, Nvidia had H200 news. They're still holding up. UNH is kind of climbing up there. I just printed again. It printed right off the open, too. They're up too again. Elevants did bad. Asmill already went red. Trump comments on 7,000 spy.
Just hit for the first time ever. America is back. Welcome back. Yeah, those stories even from yesterday are kind of holding up. Well, at least I know I'm free. Intel's killing it, dude. I'll take it. Trump and Bessant speaking at 10. I think the real thing will be if they announce the uh the new Fed chair.
That will be a a kind of a game changer. So, we'll see. But yeah, that could be big. That could be big, my friend. All right. Yeah, intel is running really good. Who's the other one? These spreads are terrible. And then where's Meta? TXN's still going up and STX. Oh my goodness. Oh my goodness. Yeah, Boeing flips.
Spies moving around. I mean, we're still holding up pretty good. I can't believe we actually hit 7,000. So, you're going to see if you dance around there and whether or not that hits. That'll change some things around. Get ready for it. Oracle, you got Lucid going up. Yeah, Oracle. It's crazy because you would think the Open AI funding from SoftBank this morning, you would have think that would have kind of helped them out, but literally Oracle's uh Oracle CDS's right now are very high.
Uh I think it's higher than the 2001 bubble. Oracle CDS's are higher than COVID. Uh, believe it or not. What was that one? M you ripping. You only know what Oracle is. I feel bro or very good very very good name. Good brand name you know. Let's see. Did it pop? Let's see. Araco. Oh, yeah. Well, there you go.
But yeah, there was news this morning on it. Again, not really Oracle, but Soft Bank and Open AAI, so you would think that would have some effect. All right, I think those broke a little bit. Those contracts. Hold on. Oh, what the [ __ ] Oh [ __ ] Sorry. Hold on. I made a couple today, you know. I made a couple.
Just a couple. All right. Yeah, Intel. I mean, STX was I think the big one. Intel just Intel loves a good rumor as of late, but it just has to just don't let a [ __ ] executive say anything. That's kind of the the bad part to all of it. Bank of Canada, Tiff Mlum. Uncertainty makes it hard to predict timing.
February silver. So, what you want to watch for is silver just as long as it doesn't stall. I mean, again, it's up today and it's advancing, but if we stay too much in a range, it's going to slow down some of this uh craziness. Yeah, Bank of Canada comments in right now. Where is the spot silver price?
EWZ in Brazil. Damn, Spot is $114.90 again. And then EM that you could tie that into the dollar. That's still up a lot. Google's going up. They announced some AI stuff yesterday. So, we'll see how that holds. Yeah. We'll see. Gave her life for me and I proudly stand up. Yeah, Net gave up a decent amount of it.
Then UVXY on the high. Man, I feel like the VIX has been going up no matter what. And Nvidia and Amazon may be part of OpenAI funding round. So again, I think all of those might benefit Oracle more. And then SPY coming down a little bit. Again, you just had a Bank of Canada comments. GRRI. Where's Meta?
Meta is still holding. Where is the meta? Oh, the meta premiums already dropped from yesterday, though. All right. The premiums dropped. That was the first time they actually dropped after uh gapping up a little bit this morning. And then yeah, spy, you're still dancing around. You're right below 7,000, but you're dancing around here.
UNH and Elevance are going up here. Again, Elevance is the one with the bad earnings. UNH was yesterday, but CNC is going up, too. You got a couple of healthcare rebounds right now. Effects of tariffs on US inflation expected to expected to fade gradually this year. Apple Red, they had a little bit of the pre-run yesterday, that gap up, and then again, Microsoft's going to be the other big one, but seemed like the last unless today there's still a long time to go, but uh you might watch the uh the premiums move around, but it seemed like yesterday they were a lot more jacked up cuz today they already opened up a little bit.
You got the highs, but the premiums. Yesterday, Meta was down and the premiums went green. So, it's a little different. Asmill, I think they went red for a second there. And then STX, that had a nice extra 5% intraday. TXN7, would have thought that one would have moved a little bit more. Doc N going up.
So again, that was part of some of those trades yesterday with uh yeah, data dog. Honestly, Net's the one that's down. And then Net Scope's holding up. And then Data Dog and Doc End. Now's the one that's down or net. Why do I keep calling it now? Like Expedia, you got Vegas numbers. CVS. I think that's part of the healthcare trend.
A lot of those healthcare names that got squashed yesterday are bouncing. Let's buy premium for both ways on POW. Well, POW's not expected to do much, but yeah. And then again, we're ah we're already at all-time highs, but I think uh it just really if POW comes out swinging, it'll be an interesting day.
If not, then they might be rightly priced. But it's weird because I think Pal is going to be a little bit more hawkish just because of his politics, but everything else points to more dovish. I.e. the statement changes, how the economy moves, all of that. Silver, dude. Hey, bro. Silver is right at 115.
That's crazy. So, it's kind of moving slower, but see if it goes up there. And then gold is the one that's kind of on fire. That Robin Hood. Uh Robin Hood kind of with the little stick dancing around like something happened. They anticipate a harder economy. Why would they cut it all? I think the only argument is that they kept it very restrictive.
So I don't think the economy is hot or doing hot because of uh other reasons than kind of trying to make it hot in a weird way. But then also too, you know, kind of influencing it. It has it caused inflation. I mean, let me put it this way. You have in the last 12 months, you've had the lowest inflation you've had in the last 6 years.
And that's with everything going on. Oh, had something too. Um was doing like a processing mine or something about like rare earth uh refinery. That was in the morning. Hood Super Bowl betting numbers and money. Oh, they stole the thunder from DraftKings. That opinion spy just keeps dancing around here.
There's a rack again. Any of the funding for Open AI, I mean, I think it subtly helps them out. And then healthc care still going up from yesterday. any of the ones that got beaten down. Yeah, dude. Copper is doing good. The premiums are higher on copper, but the ETF is just staying there, IOP, Figure, Circle, Baba, and then data.
Dude, all those cloud plate sympathies from yesterday, those are the ones that are really going. And that's the one that's lagging. data cal StubHub again. Yeah, these cl every cloud play except for service now is going up. CRVL or CRML. Oh, circle. I was like, which one's that? I ran. That one keeps climbing too again above 60.
Da kelp habibi. Da kelp. You don't know. Very good. It's very, very good. And then AT&T had a really good earnings. They're up four. Honestly, those premiums don't move a lot, but if that starts to get jumpy here at the high, you might get lucky on those. Yeah, circle still going. I don't know where Bitcoin's at.
Where are the staples? Staples are down today. XLV, I'm surprised XLV, I think that's maybe because of Elevance, but Elevance found a way to go green. Spot Palladium's moving up. Silver, Silver hit that high, then started chilling out. And then SPY working its way back up, too. And then a lot of software, a lot of tech is doing fine.
NASDAQ's up 6. SPY and Russell are closer together. And then the Dow is the one in the red. We have five more minutes till the top of the hour. We'll see where this will lead us. Oh, Starbucks, dude. Starbucks was a phenomenal earnings. I'm surprised it's only up five, but that was the first Starbucks earnings I've seen in a while.
That was like actually good. They killed it. They did good in China. They did good in America. They had uh they had a lot of things going for them. I'm surprised actually. Oh no, where's Corning from yesterday? Corning's still up. Their earnings wasn't good. They just had the meta deal yesterday, but their earnings wasn't good and they're still doing great.
And then Amazon, too. Remember, they had a nice little meltoon with a lot of their headlines yesterday. Adab, where is Intel Intel of 48. That's not too bad. I think again definitely though a tech day tech momentum again a couple of earnings. You had a few few uh non- tech names that reported really good.
But yeah, I think uh more love going to tech hyperscalers you anything related to that. It's been a while. I mean [ __ ] even Oracle is going up for crying out loud. They had Airbnb Brazil planning road map to move away from fossil fuels. EM still chilling. Where's the dollar? Dollar is trying to co come up a little bit.
Paulo Alto again more of these cyber security API type plays. Every single one of them except for net is going up. See data kelbenhabibi data kelen neutral that was a bio wasn't GRI was today they didn't do [ __ ] that one red Verizon uh we talked about it yesterday I'm not a fan of the communications too much I mean I'm not you could get them if you want I just watch be mindful of the premium but you know I don't want to be stuck in communications if they kind of lag and do nothing I would if I w if I was willing to wait and do that.
I would have just rather picked up uh healthcare BNI. That was the one from yesterday. Paladine still kind of CL. We gave up half of that game again. That just every time with all these little serrals and contracts and all that. Who's the other one? You know, we had the processing RCL on the high. I feel like I've seen a lot of travel go up.
Expedia, RCL, Airbnb, and then Adab again. Poaching Brian Nicholls. It was worth it. They paid a premium, but they did do good. That was That was the first time. It's been like a year, right? That's why I'm surprised. I mean, yeah, they got rewarded a little bit. They had the little gap up in, you know, what 20% here to start off the year.
So, that's still you're still actually at the Brian Nichols premium spot. You're like on the top end. But that was a good report from Starbucks. I'm telling you, they doubled up expectations in China. They finally grew in America a little bit. I mean, growth in quotations, but it was still better than uh, you know, that was a very, very confidence inspiring I would say I don't know.
I'm surprised any of the other restaurants they might be doing good. I don't know. What do you guys think about this? I heard this the other day. Are you ready? This was uh this was part of the Kshape economy discussion. Netflix still ramping up there. But they're saying that Chipotle Chipotle is now a luxury item.
Do you do you agree or disagree with that? Do you think Chipotle is a luxury item? No. You don't think so? Yes. You do? No. Yes. It's overpriced. Not luxury. No. They say luxury. Luxury. Like getting Chipotle. And if you get Chipotle a lot, that's a luxury. You would argue eating out is always a luxury.
Amen. I can see that. Not back the dog. Back in the day, dog, we had a junior bacon cheeseburger, a Mc Chicken. $1. $1, Bob. $1. Beans and rice. I need beans, rice, and Jesus Christ. Amen. Amen. Yeah. Circle still going up. A lot of those plays now. AT&T. I'm saying AT&T had a good earnings as well.
So, we'll see. That's amazing. I would consider adding Humana, but only if uh UNH isn't at this price. Cuz remember, we didn't go like 218 the day after. We bought it at like 230 and then I think if you waited you could have got it at like 218 the day after I bought it. That was funny. But yeah, but now UNH is lower.
So as long as uh if UNH bounces and you and Humanana is still at the same price, I would get Humanana. But if they're both kind of in the gutter, I'm taking UNH. But they all the same thing I was saying about UNH applies for Humanana. I hope you guys are aware. It all has it's the timing. So I think Humana and UNH have really good value, but you it might be good value for the next year or two.
And that right there is kind of the uh you know I don't don't really have a rush order on it. Skyworks are Quervo going up. These are the earnings that were down. Some of them are coming back up. But yeah, they're saying Chipotle is a luxury good now. That's the part of the K-shaped economy. They're saying people at the upper part of the K that's they're buying luxury goods and luxury food like Chipotle.
Mhm. I think that is though. I I mean you ask my mom, she'll tell you any eating out. Eating out is luxury, habibi, what do you think? And then my mom says it's a sin cuz it's bad for you. So thanks mom. Mhm. Silver and gold again. It's slowing down a little bit, but as long as it's not stalling, it's actually kind of working, bro.
All right. Amazon 2 Meta even woke up a little bit. And then Spyy's coming down. I mean, Russell just went red and then Dow is actually climbing back up. So, Dow is the only one that was red. So, now they're matched up. It was closer to the spy earlier again. gold and silver equal weights back to break even.
And I mean, you're what 10 points exactly from uh the gap up and other all-time high above 7,000. Would I buy more Kimberly? I would. Uh we're going to get our deposit in next week and if it comes around, you know, a little bit below. Remember, we got it at 99, but I'm actually I like the earnings. I'm down to buy it.
I think you're still going to kind of get a little bit of drama with the Ken View like transition, but I'm I'm actually I would like to build that up and then as long as by the time I get my deposit, as long as TAP doesn't come back down. So, if TAP drops like 10%, I'm buying TAP probably cuz I already stacked up on TAP.
I would like to build out that position a lot bigger. But if uh yeah, if TAP is still going up, there's nothing else. I mean, I like the UNH and Humanana, but they are I mean, I I think we could put our money to work better in a year before it's time to grab those. But yeah, I would I would be more than happy to buy more Kimberly.
I keep seeing that IVF stock go up again. Netflix went up a little bit. Now you got Roblo. That's why. Well, speaking of all this Chipotle, I mean, I'm thinking Starbucks, man, because not buying Starbucks, but the fact that Starbucks actually surprisingly did well. I don't know if that was the company.
I don't know if that's the consumer, but let's see if you get any sort of follow through out of any of these other names. If the Cavas, the Chipotles, Sweet Greens, all that. Apple on the low, you're kind of tweaking. Spies kind of tweaking out a little bit. Broadcom and Apple on the low. Silver on the high.
It could be on coffee prices cratering. Yeah, but I don't It was just re It was just like traffic. It wasn't necessarily like, you know, profits, if that makes any sense. So, I'm sure the coffee prices would have helped them as a company, but it just seemed like they had they finally had demand. Seems like it was a very good quarter for Starbucks in general.
US debt rating stable. Second downgrade. Unlikely Fitch. Thanks, guys. Thank you, Fitch. Fizzerve. I'm I'm happy with the position. Very small. I think it makes up like what, 1% of the rebuild. But that one's because it's risky and, you know, it's not something I use as much. But I want to, you know, if it goes up enough, it could turn into a deposit.
But I don't think we need to chase it. Let's see. Fizzerve makes up 3% of the account. So yeah, at this size. So yeah, I don't need to go too crazy with it. And we're up on FizzerF still, believe it or not. Just a small amount. But we'll see if everything uh if by the I mean I get a deposit in 3 days, 4 days.
So if any of these prices change dramatically and they go a lot lower or other stuff runs up and we can't get some of the opportunities we're building, then yeah, I mean we we'll have a different draft class. But for now, it seems like the Kimberly uh tap draft class is still in play. There were some better ones end of the year, but that did change.
go a patient index fund and I I've done a lot on financial literacy around 120 128 to 136 that they start to uh to move silver to copper that's the break even to get everyone a stake in the great innovation in our country and the economic engine and I I I bet if we do the survey in 5 10 years we'll have dra drasticly different results
well it it helps that the S&P is making new highs guys every day. We're coming off of three straight years of double digit consecutive gains in the S&P. We're at 7,000. I I mean, how how sustainable is that? Uh again, markets fluctuate, but I think we put in the good policies for sound economic growth and we are seeing record S&P earnings.
uh we are seeing the trillions of dollars of investment come back to the US and we're seeing inflation move back towards the Fed's target. So and that as someone who's studied this and made a career of it that the previous the performance doesn't dictate what we're going to see this year. It it's it's events and its policy and I think we got great policies.
I mean, speaking of investing in in America, I mean, one question people have right now is the appeal of US assets, especially when they Yeah, you kind of don't want to have 20% in one stock. That's kind of a lot just like cash. But that's what sucks cuz like on the rebuild because of the growth, Intel is 31% of the portfolio.
So, you got to move that around a little bit or not, you don't have to move it around. You just buy other stuff. And that's why I'm not buying setting the right fundamentals. And I think silver President Trump with the one big beautiful bill with our regulatory policies we are making this the the best place to come build your business have tax certainty regulatory certainty energy.
Yeah. On the small account though Intel's only 12%. The the on the rebuild it's on the screen can fluctuate o over six months. dramatic weakness in the dollar that again if we have sound policy listen to this the money will flow in dollar and we are bringing down our trade deficits so yeah dollar is spiking off of that
automatically that should this is what people were expecting Trump says one thing kind of combats it says the other strengthening the yen that happening absolutely not that's why silver is dropping right now you're planning take a look there was word that the New York Fed was was looking for prices Again, we we don't com comment other than say we we have a strong dollar policy and again I think President Trump
Yeah, Yen's going to move off that too, especially after yesterday. 2025 was about setting the table and now I think silver is going down because of Bessant right now just cuz he's his dollar he's combating. Remember yesterday just like yesterday at the bell that little Trump comment you've already unwound it and now you're getting the Bessant push
the Bessant bump. It's a high growth number and one of the questions is can we get that kind of growth without sparking inflation. Silver is a lot higher still surprisingly what causes inflation is supply constraint and with the deregulatory agenda that we have we are creating supply whether the it's in financial lending whether it's in energy we're increasing manufacturing.
So again, what led to the great inflation was the Democrats caused a demand shock with government spending, but they caused a supply constraint with all the overregulation. We're we're doing that. We got a private sector boom and we are taking out dozens of regulations for every new regulation that goes in.
But there there will be stimulus this year as a result of the what the big beautiful bill, the tax refunds that are set to hit the economy. I guess the question is can we avoid inflation in that in that scenario? We're already starting to see it in wages. Sorry, we're already starting to see wages climb,
but we're also seeing substantial productivity. So productivity and wage growth does not lead to inflation. And there's measured inflation and observable inflation. Measured inflation is with a lag. So we can see that rents are substantially down. It's different than the measurement. So yeah, bro, even bonds got a nice bit off of that.
Some of the more uh online ahead of Fed or quick sampling inflation numbers are substantially below 2% already. Today it's Fed day. We're expecting the Fed to do nothing today on rates. Is that a mistake? Again, that that's up to to the Fed and we we'll see what what they do. I I said absolutely not intervening members on the board who had a false narrative on inflation and I hope that they will have an open mind and see what's coming over the next couple of months.
Speaking of what's coming, when do you expect the president to make the decision or the announcement around the next Fed chair? Because this weekend is when Governor Myron's term is actually up. Uh well, it doesn't have to be up. So it it it can continue. I went out with the president to Iowa for a great rally yesterday and we had a long discussion on the plane back.
Did you make your recommendation? Uh I don't make recommendations. I give the president options and outcomes. It's going to be the president's decision. And again, the president has I'm going to go pee while he's talking, but then he'll end right when I get up. How many candidates? Four. Still four candidates.
We haven't narrowed that down. Sorry. We haven't narrowed it down beyond four. uh we we haven't narrowed it down. We haven't expanded it. Okay. And and and we don't know exactly when that announcement is coming. Uh only the president knows. Okay. So the the other, you know, sort of factor on investors minds right now is is the geopolitics.
The fact that, you know, this week President Trump is raising tariffs on South Korea because they haven't ratified their their trade deal. What what signal does that send to some of the other countries that you've negotiated these deals with and have already announced them? uh sign the sign the trade deal.
It's the the South Korean parliament has not passed the trade deal. So there is no trade deal until they ratify it. So that's until they ratify it, they will face the 25% tariffs. Well, I I I think it's help helpful to get things moved along. What about Europe and India signing this this massive trade deal?
Does that does that threaten America that some of these these countries are moving ahead with free trade without us? Uh again, uh they should do what's best for themselves. But I I will tell you I found I find the Europeans very disappointing because that the eur Europeans are on the front line of the Ukraine Russia war.
Uh the Europeans uh India started buying sanctioned Russian oil and guess who was buying the refined products the Europeans. So the Europeans have been funding the war against themselves and like something that you you couldn't have made up. The US sanctioned or put a 25% tariff on India for buying the Russian oil.
the Europeans were unwilling to join us. And it turns out because they wanted to do this trade deal. So every time you hear a European talk about the importance of the Ukrainian people, remember that they put trade ahead of the Ukrainian people. Trade, European trade more important than ending the war in Ukraine.
They need energy though, I guess, is is part of their issue. Uh at a price they want cheap energy. Look, we we could have cheaper energy, too, if we were willing to buy sanctioned Russian oil. What about Canada? We've got a bit of a rift there lately. And and there's different accounts between you and Prime Minister Mark Carney about that call this week post Davos with with President Trump.
He says that he dug in and reinforced the message. You said that he walked it back. Uh I I I will I was on the call. Uh, Prime Minister Carney, I in my investment career, I've seen what happens when a technocrat tries to pivot and become a politician. Never really works out well. So, I would just encourage Prime Minister Carney to do what he thinks is best for the Canadian people, not his own virtue signal.
He have a US MCA negotiation coming up. Oh, [ __ ] Bessie. He uh he likes color on an anti-American anti-Trump message and that's not a great place to be when you're negotiating with an economy that is multiple larger than you are and your big biggest trading partner in the end. I think we will end up in a good place may not be a straight line.
Are are you saying that they will face consequences in these trade negotiations reopening the USMCA? I I I am saying that I I would not pick a fight that going into USMCA to score some cheap political points. Either you are working for your own Oh, I go into the peach every day. That'll get you some political points
in great negotiations or not. What's up, Bradley Frizzle? How you living, big dog? I don't know what to expect. Oh, God bless America. Look at this spy. Spice said peach and they don't care. Stop it. All time highs. The peach has been there every day. Mood of the country when it comes to the funding of ICE.
Happy Fed day, bro. The pre President Trump temperature on the situation. He's in constant contact and he is urging them not to shut down the government and and again that much of what came what happened during the shutdown or some of what happened knows very knowledgeable at these so that's why he could really
he shuts it down and throws a little shade at the same time there's a big permanent loss I hope the Democrats won't do that again are you hearing from business leaders it's hard not to like the guy unless who don't like it. No, as keeps going again. We had those again there's satellite rumors going around.
You're going to get a government contract eventually. Not for them, but somebody potential economic fallout around this if we see I don't know certain pockets of of workers, immigrants reluctant to go to work, that sort of thing. Well, I I what I what what I can tell you is that we we have seen about two two and a half million the illegal aliens either through voluntary deportation or or
you know Bessant is really good when the only way like Nome can talk [ __ ] about him is making fun of him being gay. Like that's you didn't you okay Newsome's the Democrat but then like they'll just it's actually mind-blowing. But I like Besson a lot. He is I had high hopes for him until he uh backfires but for now I mean he has been uh
he's been holding it down. I you know the business leaders that we talked to that I Yes. He is the first gay treasurer of the United States openly gay. This year there's been some surprises. The latest is the the health insurers selling off on on keeping these Medicare rates flat but also you know trying to get Wall Street out of the housing market capping credit card rates.
Some of these are seen as more populist, less pro business measures. Well, again, the the business leaders always want everything all the time. Guy guy makes like five good speeches. Y'all forgot the big banks or all all banks. I care about merit. I don't care what you do in your bedroom. He's a He's a smart guy.
FDIC. We've been very pro uh dollar's still going up off it. Dollar really likes this conversation. record profits, which is good considering the [ __ ] blowout yesterday. And then they get upset when we want to examine the credit card business. He did. He used to work with George Soros. He said that Obamacare,
you're just making fun of George Soros's son the other day. Companies. All he did was say, we're not raising the amount that we're paying to these health. China's going down too off this dollar stuff. Walmart couple staples climbing. I mean, SPY's near the low. NASDAQ's only one in the green. Spies tenth of a percent away from going red.
that the credit card one can't ultimately pass. Again, sir, what we've seen is in in the old days, you used to compete on APR, the the annual financing rate. Now, you you compete on benefits on rewards, and the benefits and the rewards go mostly to upper end clients. So, why why not pull down the benefits and the rewards a little and h have a look at the rates because before before the GFC the average spread over Fed funds for credit cards was about a thousand basis points and now we've just blown that out.
Okay. Well, we'll we'll see what happens and where that one goes but we certainly appreciate the time here at the Trump account summit. Secretary Besson, thank you. Good. It's exciting day. We're going to have some exciting announcements. Okay. Oh, yeah. You got announcements here. That is the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant.
And then joining us later, Carl Brad Gersonner of Alimter, who helped birth this idea, brought it to to the government. We're going to talk to him about what it's also get his take of course on Magnificent Seven names which are set to report starting today. All right. Well, Bessie, I mean, that did cause moves.
It that stopped the uh movement there with gold and silver and then changed some of that dollar trajectory from yesterday because that was a big deal. uh the dollar going down and even uh remember end of the day yesterday when Trump made those comments uh saying it's not it's not even that bad. Uh it kind of went down a little bit more but you know this was expected.
I will tell you a lot of people remember this has been a game that they that they play where Donald Trump will say one thing and then Lutnik or Bessant will kind of like walk it back and then give another side of the story and then it kind of you know you'll find an equilibrium. So this Kai again, it shot down yesterday, shot up today.
I'm sure we're going to start to see it move around a little bit more and kind of, you know, settle at at a certain spot. So you could argue it's expected, but yeah, literally it's good cop, bad cop. But that way too, you get you get it moving, but then you also don't I mean, again, this Bessant stepped in every time the bonds get to the danger level.
So it's interesting because you have the Fed day today, so we'll see how that moves around. But even with the Fed and not expecting much today, this that might have been the uh you might have got a bigger move on the dollar out of that. But yeah, we do have a lot of different events. You're going to hear from Trump and whoever's at this summit.
I mean JP Morgan already announced today that they're going to be doing their little Trump accounts, too. And then yeah, we'll see if Powell wants to surprise again if he's going to be political. But then again, Powell the the statement most people are expecting a dovish shift in the statement today.
Uh, other than that, that might be the only thing you get and then it'll be all about the presser. Got bills. I could take this [ __ ] Federal McDonald again. I think the food plays too, bro. I don't know. I think food consumer. That was a nice little Starbucks mixed in with a couple of the other consumer stocks.
But staples aren't doing that well. I think just most of the uh hype is going towards the uh what's it called names? It's going towards the uh the big dogs, the techs. That's where you're a lot of tech momentum today. Qualcomm, I was looking at that earlier. And then see if the dollar does make a bigger move, you'll probably re, you know, gold, silver, bonds, even damn oil that might start to move as well.
But there is Iran comments. That is why oil is up. They keep mentioning Iran. Even Germany had a Iran comment today earlier as well. Oh, let's get a checkup. Let's do it. Let's do it. S&P 230 green, 270 in the red. NASDAQ 64 in the green, 34 in the red. And then Dow Jones 16, 14 red. Nice mix. And then UNH is leading you again.
Some of these healthcare companies, medical tech 2 is going up. That's what just had BSX up there. They're going to announce new Fed chair. That's what dude that has been my expectation for a long time and they haven't done it yet but you know knowing Donald Trump and kind of all of it. They might maybe but maybe they wait I don't know if he's going to wait till March cuz March is the uh is the SCP.
So cuz like this meeting doesn't really mean anything. All this meeting means is that Powell has less time and then people keep talking. I mean I guess it's Powell day. We could talk about it, but you guys can I you want me to be honest with you guys? I got kind of pissed off this morning. You know that I got pissed off at Powell.
Not really Powell. I think it's Bloomberg's fault. That's why I [ __ ] the news. Uh, you know, just get objective news and interpret it yourself. Cuz I had to hear these people in the morning explain. They're like, "Well, Powell is quite credible and and if Powell feels that the institution is at risk, he will not give it up." I'm like, why the [ __ ] does Powell get to make that decision?
Why the [ __ ] would you let Powell hold a damn mutiny and try to stay? So, I don't know, man. I love Powell, but I just can't I can't I can't envision it, man. I can't see why who in their right mind would expect uh Powell to like hold a [ __ ] last stand at the Fed trying to uh you know hold on to this power when when again I mean I I like Besson's explanation if you didn't hear what he said.
He says simple man you know the they increase demand with a [ __ ] ton of government spending. You guys do you guys remember last year when I was telling you that? Do you guys remember the phrase government demand? And that's why sadly though, I do think there's government demand being caused by the big beautiful bill.
Make no mistake. I just think it's going towards metals, minerals, [ __ ] like that. War, defense, clear. You know, we went through the whole bill. Uh but yeah, it's like uh you know, government demand mixed in with like tight regulation. I think that is what what caused I mean, literally even without the regulation, the government demand, you know, just thrown about, especially once we come to realize, you know, the amount of fraud and [ __ ] like that.
It's like, dude, that caused a lot. But yeah, I don't know. I don't Powell doesn't if Powell try I don't know. I don't think he'll do it. I think the news is trying to like goat Powell into like trying to have a [ __ ] Alamo at the at the Fed and trying to do this battle. But I would just I I think I would vomit.
I think I would if Powell Don't go out like that, Powell. You're better than that, dog. You're better than that. Will we be going over earnings today? Uh you could go watch the video on the pricing. I think that'll help you a lot. I mean I got some good meta plays last week or two weeks ago. Uh but really all that matters there's two sides of earnings today.
Uh one is going to be capex. So Microsoft Meta uh even Apple later this week depending on how much they spend. That's going to fuel a lot of the plays you're seeing today like the the mid-tier techs and all of that. Uh other than that uh every company kind of has their own little thing. uh like Meta is going to be about revenue guide for next quarter uh plus if their capex goes higher or lower.
Microsoft although people like Azer and want the cloud to be good what really matters is if they could actually turn up some AI demand that isn't SAS and then that's you know they those are the two with their specific factors. So, it's kind of following the macro in a weird way, but then uh you know, capex will drive the the other plays.
And then, you know, if you really want to make an opportunity to play it or gamble on it with options, the opportunity I think relies on the premiums and the and the price and the average move that you got coming into it. So, unfortunately, I I do think the meta like again, we made a couple hundred% on the metas already.
So, you can still play it if they surprise to one side. I mean, you could still make some money on an option, but you know, there there was a nice little little easy one that was there prior, and that had to do with what I'm saying with the premium expected move in and average quarterly move. Lenar and DHI going, "Oh, watch the homebuilders." Actually, low key, I mean, they he said, I don't know, Pat Besson just hinted at another action.
So, think affordability, Trump accounts. You You might get something. I don't know what the I mean, the Fed chair, bro, it's a lot of power. I say Powell didn't Powell had a good seven-year run, dude. Powell didn't tweak out till literally the last segment. And again, I mean, I give the guy grace on transitory for crying out loud, but yeah, I don't know.
It's it's a lot of responsibility. Yeah, the yen's still going up. PNC, where the banks at? Ironically, the banks are all down here today. MGM, you had those Vegas numbers. MGM's getting a couple sticks, little baby ones. We have a future Fed chair in the chat. I think so. I believe it. I'm excited.
That's why. And I hope uh whenever they get tempted to cut before election, I I hope you get Josh flashbacks. They make the bonds. You can't the history. I don't know. Do you think the Fed, the ch the Chad Fed, you think he'd be more like Vulkar or more like Powell? Do I think he's made a better job of transparency for the Fed?
Uh, no. So, that's kind of like it seemed like that in the beginning, but like just cuz they talk a lot doesn't mean they're transparent, right? like you would hear all these Fed people talking, but it didn't necessarily make uh what they were doing transparent. Hence the confusion over the last 2 years or so, you know, cuz you had data and you had other stuff.
That's why they kept moving the goalpost and it just didn't really make sense, you know. So, this is the chart I kept showing everybody yesterday. Uh and this is uh this is something that I think is important. I don't want to I said it earlier. I I should probably give you a disclaimer before I show you this chart, but long story short, if you uh if you view this and you're impatient, you this is going to [ __ ] you up.
If you're not, if you just view it, you know, take it as another data point, you know, you'll you'll be good. Uh but literally, there's only two times in history where you have cut rates by 100 basis points and the mortgage rates uh in the long end of the bond curve have stayed higher. uh literally 2008 and then literally right before the election uh where the cycle this is the cycle we're in now and then this was same exact thing happened in 2008.
You could kind of see it. You ran out you ran rates ran down you cut the rates longer end went down with it leading into it. Then they really started cutting and just you know we had our real cutting cycle uh and then you kept cutting but then the rates both times have just they're not coming down. uh which which this hasn't happened throughout history again going back through the whole entire history of the Fed.
Uh so it's like stuff like this where it's that's why uh you know in the and throughout the last year you've had data even prior to that we've had data that you know if they were really transparent by their meth methodology we would have uh I think markets and bonds would have had a way better picture and been able to respond.
But just cuz they talk a lot and they've had these back and forth meetings and say all this other [ __ ] uh, it doesn't change the fact that, you know, you don't know why Powell cut, you don't know why he held, why did he cut at 9%. Why did he keep rates at zero near 9% inflation, why when inflation is low, why why does he insist on holding rates higher?
and you know he g he's given reasons but then once you would check off one of those boxes he'd have another reason. So it's like that type of transparency I don't I don't think he's done very well at hearing from Fed members. Yeah, we've we've heard from all of them a lot a lot and they like to trade.
Can't blame them. I you know don't we all? Yeah. Gasoline inventories crude oil minus 2.29 29 estimate was a gain of 1.9 distlate draw or gain versus a draw. Uh UNG is actually coming up on that believe it or not. F I thought that [ __ ] was down earlier. Silver's kind of chilling out too since the Bessant fiasco.
Dollar's still up there. See if See if silver could move without the dollar. That'll be interesting. GL Dubs meta. Yeah, UNNG is still climbing. I know, bro. I'm literally all the sympathies yesterday didn't do [ __ ] and then Net was the one. They just literally flipped them all. And then even Paladine's getting wrecked, too.
Let a Amazon flipped. A didn't arm have stuff. Corre was doing good in the morning, but flip that's not moving as much. A lot of healthcare. You're kind of rotating back. So Russell's still down. Dow came back up. Staples want to go green. NVO dropped two. That one's down three. They added option expertise two days for Tesla and Nvidia.
Yeah, make that money, son. Beyond new products sold out. Which one? The [ __ ] protein juice. Yeah, they're moving off of that. Wasn't it protein drinks? Protein juice. Protein juice sound weird, but I think they had something. Who is this? David Saxs. He looks familiar. Every child born forever more.
Oh no, Brad. This is the magnitude of social security will get an investment accounted with $1,000 in it. Moms and dads can add. Oh yeah, I saw that earlier. You said you got a bonus and then KMBB or tap. Well, I mean, I like those cuz I just I'm thinking 10 years out and I'm trying to uh take advantage of some of the uh the good value there.
I mean, if you want to take risk and you don't care about losing the money, I mean, you could go for growth. Uh just, you know, a lot of them have I mean, a lot of things have ran, but other than that, like that's that is what I am buying. But I'm not trying to uh you know look bonds, dollar, a lot of these I think there's a lot of good opportunities but you know keep your head on a swivel and and maintain the 10-year plan is what I'm doing.
Uh just cuz uh but like I get tempted by the little bubbles that are forming but I've just been gambling on them rather than uh applying the long term. the long term. I mean though the plays I'm picking for the long term, you know, we got a little bit of risk, but I am thinking for, you know, stability.
I want I want this stuff with upside, a good yield, and then something that no matter what, you know, actually, you even saw it the other day, like, you know, if we get a surprise, things start to go down from all-time highs, I think a lot of those names will rip. Uh, and then vice versa. If things actually do good do good, we get a good run it hot.
Uh, get AI benefits. Those companies still have that upside as well, too. So, you could go, you could paint outside the lines. It's up to you. But, I mean, as far as what I'm focusing on, you guys should be aware of uh my draft class. And I've I've only bought a couple names here. We bought a couple more towards the end of last year.
I mean, you got the CMGs, the Fizzerves, the Sweet Greens, and those were a little smaller, but then uh again, in anytime, TAP was at just the good book value play. I I really appreciated that. And then we got to build up some dividends. Uh so, you know, I'm still thinking 10 years out cuz if we could build stack, we're going to get them.
Even if you get a bonus, just, you know, kind of keep it. But I don't know. I feel like I feel like people are getting some FOMO or I don't the the other day the what was it? Somebody said they got a bonus and they wanted to buy silver. So, it's like if you want to take risk with it, I mean, you can, but I I kind of like viewing bonuses as I'd want to keep it forever, not necessarily double it or lose it.
Well, that's up to you. You think storage will become the AI vertical? Uh, what do you mean like real estate storage like or like data storage, cloud storage. Yes. Uh but not like the like what's it called like oh why am I blinking? Not like storage units but data center I mean if anything it's more of a manufacturing in terms of the space but then that's why like these like cloud plays.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Like net and all that. Not I mean Western Digital STX all those that's just the memory part of it but like I think the cloud storage mixed in with like managing API and cloud access that's where that's becoming its kind of its new vertical. So we're going to see but you need like the trends to continue.
So if this like Cloudbot stuff keeps going it's going to uh I think it's going to start to impact a lot of those. But it might take a couple months. You might need to see, you got to go through earnings with a couple of these companies and then let's see if Claude, Chat, GPT, even Grock, see what they if they start to develop stuff like this Claudebot, I think it's going to boom a lot of those other names.
That's what I'm saying. Like you could like net you could add Net to the long term, but like it's literally up 20% in 3 days. And then if you're wrong, I mean, you're going to lose 50% of your money uh if it comes back down to a certain level, right? But then it's like if you want to invest in a we all use Cloudflare, you know that, right?
Every single one of you uses Cloudflare whether you know it or not. So it's like stuff like that. Like if you really wanted to take risk, but I don't think you're getting the same bang for your buck. And then if anything goes wrong, just like you guys remember 2022, right? You know, there was a lot of names that were booming.
uh when you buy them on the boom, if you buy them on the right boom, it it's a lot of fun and it and it works out very well. But, you know, if you are on your 10-year plan, you know, my plan is just buy what's cheap while it's in front of you and then, you know, keep an eye on the stuff that's expensive now and then you should get another time to buy it.
uh you know in the next five to 10 years I I think uh I think some of these names will come across but yeah it's like net I mean you you use it and that's that's but I think these are going to become bubble plays depending on how the trends with uh Claudebot and these like advanced agentic AI stuff starts to to develop.
Oh, didn't it? Oh, is that after the bell? I think waste management's after the bell today. STX. So, that's like the physical storage. But yeah, and that's already going up just because of the the buildouts of Rubio. Yeah, Rubio's at a he has like a thing. He's talking Venezuela. I don't know if y'all want to hear it.
The lunar. When would I consider pain pal if we ran out of options? But I think you have so many more options. That's kind of the part that's like I don't know if people are like I don't know if you guys are trying to like if you're trying to get laid cuz like I keep saying no no no and people keep asking me in like different ways and you're like yeah yeah just one more drink Josh.
Okay yeah no no Josh. Okay. What about this? Same thing. Someone even asked me about uh Verizon again and I feel like the Verizon commercial. I'm like can you hear me now? No. Okay. Can you hear me now? So yeah, it's like even even down to the other tap and Kimberly, uh it's just like people are asking me if there's other plays, but I think you got good [ __ ] right in front of you.
Um my I guess my question is why why are those not sufficient or why would those not be good enough? Because that's what I'm saying. It's like till then I mean end of the year last year, bro, a month ago. Oh, you had some really, really good names that they all went 20% in the last month. Uh, 10 to 20%.
So, it's kind of along that lines where it's like if you don't take them when they're in front of you, I mean, it's nothing's going to stay the same forever. Uh, and if it does, I mean, that's going to create its own little setup, but it's just like, yeah, you got to kind of go through the uh just use what's right in front of you at the time.
And if you if you want to buy stuff that's up in front of you, I mean, you can. Uh, but I I think we've done very well and kind of being a little hard on you guys to take the deals and don't buy things that are up. I think it's it's had more benefits than not. More people have ended up pretty good. It's not enough where you'd want to put it in more than two.
Well, you could put it in one, but like I'm saying, it's just I'm believe me, don't I'm not really bothered by it. I'm just trying to encourage you guys to, you know, just I'm look at what I'm doing and learn from what I'm doing. I'm taking what's in front of me. Uh, you know, if if it was a month ago, two, there was some other ones and we didn't buy them.
Uh, and then they were able to run away. So, you only got a couple of options there. And I'm sure in the next couple of months it's those options are going to stay the same or they're going to change. But like I'm saying, taking advantage of what's a what's a good deal in front of you and thinking for for 10 years minimum.
I didn't buy UPS, but we were talking about that below 100. Let's see. Yeah, we were talking UPS in the 80s. So, some of you took that. A lot a lot of you did, actually. I was waiting on that. I think I grabbed uh tap around there instead, but I think a lot of y'all grabbed UPS. I was worried a little bit by the dividend, but I know a lot of Chad's got UPS and target.
That was a great pickup. And that's what I was saying at the time, you had you had different options. And if you grab one of those now, like you could already see how it's how it's already shifted. But yeah, I think you guys uh I think you've got to see it though. Like the patience. That's really what it comes down to.
You know, you're going to get the names you want or the names that are high today. like you've seen it with enough time you you'll get a fair price and they may not it may not go back to the bottom but you'll get a fair price but that's why too sometimes remember in the moment it felt like UPS was in the 80s forever and then now it's not same thing with Target and and a lot of other plays the [ __ ] who else was it a lot of things on the XLP a lot of those names that were in the red end of last year so you just got to as long as you're sticking to the timeline and the patience it's not that's why I have the lack of FOMO.
And that's why it's like, you know, you don't have to be perfect. You may pick up the one might go more than the other, but give it another cycle. Give it another couple months. Give it another year. It's going to it's all going to come back around. And if you uh keep planning on saving and building, like you're not you're not really And then that's the the funny the irony of all of it.
Like even if you buy it and it triples up, what are you going to do? You're not going to sell it. So it's like you got to you got to think in that that sense too like what what is the rush? I forgot Whirlpool earnings. I'm surprised didn't come up as one of the big ones. Let me check. Oh no, they're after the close today.
I thought they reported in the morning. I'm tripping. So yeah, but we'll see. They're not I mean, again, they're expecting 4.2 two and then they've actually been up on the year. That's up 15% on the year. And they've had a year ago they this quarter they actually could move pretty big. Yeah, I think that one might get some movement.
Ryder. Oh, I don't know where they're at. I know Ryder is part of the economy, but I mean you tell me. What do you think about this chart? Good company though. Writers used in everything. And like I don't if I was going to take anything that's at like super duper highs, I'd probably buy something related to uh the next vertical of AI or I'd buy Adobe.
But if it's uh just like what I was saying with like names like Mo and I can't believe MO has already rocketed back to 64. But I had this conversation last year. Do you guys remember when I was kind of warning people about buying uh kind of these more stable stocks and like you know economical you know part of the economy not necessarily tech a different part of the economy.
You don't want to buy them too high because if you do you could be down 20%. and it'll do nothing. I think MO is part of this staple hype at the beginning of the year and then they're trying to make that shift in uh in the tobacco or the nicotine products in the designation. Yeah, Rubio's live in front of Congress.
After strike after strike against drug trafficking boats, in several instances, senior leaders of the administration briefed this committee and others, we were told that military action to remove Maduro was not on the table, that the campaign to try and deter drug trafficking was not going to include the exact military action that followed.
Yeah, bro. Mo yet it was being rehearsed. Where is it? If there was time to practice, there was time to consult. I think we collected consulting with Congress highminded principle, not some act thing, not a nice to have. It's a got to have. So you got 42% on the the chairman saying that this was limited in also collected backed be happy about the result.
It's kind of nuts. That much I agree with. That's why that president continues to threaten Deli Rodriguez and the remedy regime with military force if they go through these cycles. We should think about it. We were buying it. What are the policies? What is while it wasn't doing it and then you have a year to get it long and painful and then it's been two years going up.
That's why it's like it'll probably level out maybe around if it does keep going down or you'll take another one. Expensive years long. That's how all of them are going to work. in Iraq in particular in Libya and elsewhere things you have to be very patient with MO and so constant is a great play it was fun truthful [ __ ] leader is critical in your took us three years four years to build it
you experienced it I was in the room as you held to account members of previous administrations for not coming forward as they should have so look in order to avoid our men and women in our armed forces going into harm's way doubting whether they have the support of the Congress, consultation, hearings, and deliberations are required.
I understand the risk of leaks. That's a risk every administration takes. But at the end of the day, our framers entrusted the power of the declaration of war to this body, not to the executive. And where there is the time to consult, there has to be consultation. Second, I just wanted to talk about allies and alliances.
Um, I was just in Europe. I led a bipartisan delegation as Senator Shaheen referenced to Denmark and our president's comments about NATO, about Denmark and his attempts to coersse Denmark into giving up Greenland are appalling. They profoundly harmed our security and I am asking you to do everything you can to reinforce our commitment to NATO.
I was concerned that you just said NATO needs to be re-imagined. Let's just be clear about the record. You know as well as I Article 5 has only been invoked once and it was in defense of us after we were attacked. Danes and soldiers from almost every other NATO ally deployed and served, fought and died.
52 Danes. And for me the most emotional moment of my visit to Denmark was laying a wreath at the memorial to the Danes who served, fought and died alongside Americans. So when our president says, "We never asked for anything from NATO and they never gave us anything." And you suggest that they aren't carrying their weight, whether it's in bases or in access or in troops or in service, it is allies that will keep us safe in the Indo-acific.
Our treaty allies, Korea and Japan and Australia and the Philippines are going to be critical to Indoacific security against our principal threat, China. And in Europe, I am worried that the very foundations of trust are being shaken. Our democracy depends on consultation with Congress that is truthful and timely.
And the confidence of our allies depends on them knowing where we're going next. Today, an armada is steaming towards Iran. Our president is on social media threatening Iran. And I hope I can count on you, Mr. secretary to consult with us and inform us before our next actions whether against Nigeria, Colombia, Cuba, Iran or anywhere else.
And I hope and believe that I can count on you to reinforce the sanctity of NATO. Not to reimagine it, but to reinforce it. Thank you. Well, let me unpack the three points you touched upon. Consultation, NATO, Greenland. I like Rubio. Well, he let me tell the consult. Look, this has been a ball of attention, not just in this administration in Congress, but in multiple administrations as you rightly pointed out.
I um I was a big fan of consultation when I was sitting over there. Now, you know, it's a different job, different time, but it's not that's not necessarily this is a very unique situation that we faced here. Um the fact of the matter is that our mission and the one you were briefed on and talked about.
That mission remains ongoing and that is the counter narcotic mission that we continue to carry out in the as controversial as it may be. You may not all be fans of it obviously but it is happening in the Eastern Pacific and it is also happening in the Caribbean basin. The problem is or the good news is there aren't a lot of drug boats moving in the Caribbean basin anymore and that's what we had briefed Congress upon.
This specific mission that you've talked about, one of the reasons why you rehearse it is to see if it's even feasible to basically go to the president and say, "Is this something that's even an option on the table?" The truth of the matter is that this not even this mission could not have been briefed to Congress because it even wasn't even in the realm until very late in December when all of our long failed and the president was finally presented these options and made these decisions.
It was also a trigger-based operation. It may never have happened. It required a number of factors to all align at the right place at the right time in a very limited window and it wasn't even clear if it was ever going to be possible. There's also the aspect which I do not control and that is deference the department of war on operational security.
Despite the fact that we had kept this quite constrained the truth of the matter is that this was leaked. We now know it was leaked by a contractor the department of war that had it been published would have endangered the lives of people andor would have probably canceled the ability to carry out the mission.
So this is a real tension and one that I'm doing the best I can to try to manage within within the constraints of you guys know what leak they're talking about security and also they're talking about the poly market Venezuela didn't he made like 60,000 or 600,000 I forgot but like pretty much somebody bet on the Venezuela thing right before with a brand new wallet and then that's and then the guy went to jail actually they found him and they jailed him within 48 hours
to the president who also certainly has to be reimagined and the reason why it has to be reimagined is not because its purpose is reimagined, its capabilities have to be reimagined. Let me give you as a point of example. There's a lot of talk about security guarantees and it's something that the general case of Ukraine but those security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops
primarily French in the UK and then a US backs stop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backs stop. It is not the the and and I'm not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a in a post-war Ukraine. What I'm pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backs stop.
And so and the reason why you need such a strong US backs stop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years. Now hopefully that's going to change. Hopefully that is changing and in some cases and in some particular countries it's already changed.
But this is a fact that we cannot ignore. NATO is going to be stronger if our allies are more capable. Especially, and here's the reality, whether we want to accept it or not, we have interests all over the world. We have interests in the Middle East. We have interest in the Western Hemisphere. And we most certainly have interest in the Indoacific.
A number of you have already pointed out that China is the chief's challenge. We can't have the same soldiers or the same ships in both Europe and in the Indoacific. We have to pick. No matter how many ships we build, no matter how many capabilities we grow, we're going to have to make these adjustments.
And the stronger our partners are in NATO, the more flexibility the United States will have to secure our interest in different parts of the world. That's not an abandonment of NATO. That is a reality of the 21st century and the world that's changing. Now, in the case of Greenland, I'll say we're in a good place right now.
We had excellent meetings with the general secretary of secretary general of NATO. Um, in fact, even as I speak to you now, there'll be some technical level meetings between us and our partners in Greenland and and and Denmark on this issue. And I think we have in place a process that's going to bring us to a good outcome for everybody.
The president's interest on Green. It's a national security interest. It's a long-standing interest that predate this administration. He would just look like Dana White knowledge is real. Bro, he kind of look like done. We're going to begin that. You know what? He look like Bruce Willis straight forward way.
I think I [ __ ] with Donald Trump more now. We're going to try to do it in a way that isn't like a media circus every conversations happen because we think that I can see him at the Nagasaki building. What's it called? Decides to arrive positive outcome. He looked like Bruce Willis. I thought it was noteworthy and important that despite concerns, the president at his speech in Davos made very clear that the United States I [ __ ] with this force or military force in Greenland.
I think I'm going to make this my Twitter profile picture. We got a little bit of work to do, but I think we're going to wind up in a good place. And I think you'll hear the same from our colleagues in Europe very shortly. Mr. Secretary, the gang of I really appreciate that. It is critical that you consult with Congress.
For us to be safe, our allies have to trust us. And for this committee to do our work, we have to trust you. Let's work together to restore that tower. Mr. Secretary, thank thank you for being here. Defending American interest in the face of Russian, Iranian, and Chinese encroachment in the Western Hemispheres.
It's a key to the Trump coral area of the Monroe Doctrine. That's my new profile picture. Venezuela's new interim leader. I'm a big I'm a big fan of this actually defends their ties. I really appreciate it and the PRC. You have no idea. Said this week had enough. So beyond I'm going to go shave my head today in your testimony.
Now that I think about it, what steps does the administration take, you know, I already got the ball max on top to demand from the interim government to put incentives in place to ensure that they prevent malign actors, foreign terror organizations and so forth from continuing to have uh influence and safe haven in Venezuela.
Yeah, it's two. I mean, yes, there's leverage and I wouldn't just say oil. I think anything that's sanctioned in Venezuela, in order for them to normalize it will require cooperation with the United States. But not it's not just leverage, it's also their national interest. It's an alignment of their interest.
The truth of the matter is that the United States will be a far better partner for a future Venezuelan government that's free and democratic and even for the current authorities than some of the partners they've signed up with now. Um, frankly, uh, I I we think it's not in Venezuela's interest to have an Iranian presence or the sale of Iranian weaponry or anything like that into their country.
So, I think there's alignment there. We think and can argue that some of these criminal elements which they've allowed to act with impunity in parts of their country is a deal with the devil. In the short term it provided revenues to some corrupt regime officials but in the long term has created real destabilization not for just them by the way but also for Colombia.
Just understand something. The FARC dissident and the ELN operate with impunity from Venezuelan territory. They control Venezuelan territory and some of that was through deals with individuals aligned with the regime because they made money off of that. We don't think that's in the long term interest and and what's been expressed to us by leaders of the interim authorities is that they agree and now we're going to
despite the public commentary there's a recognition you think and and progress look we all have politics. Yeah. Even in places like that suffice it to say what I've said from the very beginning we are going to judge based on action and that's going both ways. You can tell us you're going to do all these great things and you don't do them.
You didn't do them. Or you can say I'm not going to do these great things but if you do them you did them. Good. And I think we've made I think we can point to some things now that show you just as an example. Think about it. Within two and a half weeks of Maduro's removal, they passed reforms to the hydrocarbon laws which basically roll back many of the Chavez era restrictions on private ownership and investment in their country.
Um it doesn't go far enough. It probably needs to do more. But that's extraordinary. As long as I don't have a sharp scalp, are you talking about the Maduro was still there? Why do I know exactly what you're talking about? Do they still have political prisoners? They do. But many are increasingly being released every single day and some are actually being released and beginning to speak out again.
Well, I got a forehead like a bulldog that'll be a bulldog forehead. You touched on my on my You know why? Cuz I'm empathetic. They said of very sorted history for you if you do a [ __ ] president. Apparently, I'm an empathetic individual based on my forehead wrinkles in the oval office to talk about the opportunity to invest and there was you know worries about the safety of
my girlfriend says I need a moisturized in terms of the hydrocarbon law security guarantees for workers any sorts of certainty that investors are gaining which is going to allow them to have the confidence to move on the opportunities of yeah I mean the first step is some of these investors or potential investors need to get a license from OFAC to be able to even explore this.
Then they need to be able to go down there and meet with people and see what's happening and make that determination. Here's what I would say. Venezuela has a lot of oil. They do, but there's a lot of oil in other places, too. Companies are only going to invest somewhere if they know we're going to invest.
We're going to make our money back with a profit and our land isn't going to be taken from us. And if you try to, there's a court we can go to and contracts we can enforce. That's the level of certainty that we're talking in ter terms of security. And that's what that's part of this transition process.
That's part of this recovery process is to normalize their industry because if not they'll just invest the money in Guyana or they'll just invest the money in some other part of the world that has oil. They're not going to risk it. So it's to their benefit to have set up a normal transparent process that encourages foreign investment not just in oil by the way in other natural resources but in other sectors of their economy.
I mean it's unlimited whether it's retail whether it's banking. I mean a country that's prosperous and generating economic activity holds the promise of all sorts of economic activity. Try to squeeze in one more question if I could just uh in my remaining seconds. Just very briefly. We've heard such differing accounts and the president have spoken strongly.
You have as well on the the deaths in Iran uh and the horrible atrocities are being committed. Can you give us some sense of we see reports of thousands, tens of thousands. What's the State Department's best estimate of what's happened on the ground? Well, I don't in the thousands for certain. Um, and and look, I think regimes, including that one in Iran, Iran, have learned that when you start shooting people in the head with snipers, it's effective.
I mean, it works, and they've done it, and it's horrifying. And that's what we've seen. That regime is probably weaker than has ever been. The core problem they face, unlike the protests you saw in the past on some other topics, is that they don't have a way to address the core complaints of the protesters, which is that their economy is in collapse.
And the reason why there's economy is in collapse is because they spend all their money and all their resources building weapons and sponsoring terrorist groups around the world instead of reinvesting it back into their society. And as a result of taking on massive global sanctions which has isolated their economy and their country and so that's what the Iranian people are demanding is that they stop doing that and start caring about them and get these sanctions off them.
And this regime is unwilling to do it. So the core challenges the the the the protests may have ebbed but they will spark up again in the future because this regime unless they are willing to change and or leave have no way of addressing the legitimate and consistent complaints of the people of Iran who deserve better.
Very good. Thank you. Thank you Senator Murphy. Uh thank you very much Mr. Chairman. Listen I think the scope of the morning runners got in Venezuela is without precedent. You are taking their oil at gunpoint. You are holding and selling that oil, putting for now the receipts in an offshore Middle Eastern account.
You're deciding how and for what purposes that money is going to be used in a country of 30 million people. I think a lot of us believe that that is destined for failure. And I know that you're telling us today just to be patient, but um a month later we have no information for a Democratic people are still in charge.
Most of the political prisoners are in jail. And by the way, those that have been let out have a gag order on them from the government of course these guys still in exile. This looks already like it is a failure. You say you're in serious talks, but as you note, the Venezuelans are great at being in serious talks.
They almost never deliver. Um, so I'm just going to give you my three questions and and hope that you'll answer them because I I do think we want to try to understand how to judge the efficacy of this as time goes on because I worry you won't be back before this committee um anytime soon uh and to understand whether this is just facilitating corruption both in Venezuela and here at home.
So here are my three questions. First, reports are that you've given no bid licenses uh to two companies to sell Venezuela's oil. One of them is a massive donor to the president. To many Americans, that reeks and so my question is, can you commit that partners for future sales are going to be chosen through a fair open selection proc?
What is this? They signed strategic agreement with you. Jesse Rodriguez, who is over the counter and syringe line, the head of Maduro's torture operation is still in power 6 months from now. Does that mean that your policy is a success or failure? How do we judge when we've had enough of Rodriguez? And third, in your testimony, you reserved the right to use force again.
India to slash tariffs on 100,000 European cars to 30 to 35% with your request. So if for instance they refuse to give you access to the oil in the future if they India is lowering tariffs on European themselves would this cause you to consider military action and do you concede that if you're using military action simply to try to compel cooperation from the government you absolutely need congressional authorization for that.
So if you can answer those three. Yeah. So the the first question was about the trading companies. The second is about Deli stolen power 6 months from now. 6 months from now. And the third is on the u use of force. Yes. Okay. On the first one, the two trades. No, the Fed meeting is going to be more determinant on the press conference is they have no place expected changes occur.
We're going to talk about I'll have a baby preview for you guys. Right. Right ahead of the only way to move it to market very quickly is to plug into these two primary trade companies that could sell it in the open. But right now, I'd probably be more concerned with the dollar. That is obviously if the bonds do die problem which is they were literally storing oil tankers and we had tankers sitting offshore just to hold their oil.
At some point their capacity to produce was going to be shut down and their ability to generate revenue. So we had to move that oil very quickly. The long-term plan is not those two trading companies. The long-term plan is for them to have a normal energy program that sells directly into the market directly uh to refineries and to companies that are exploiting and exploring it.
For example, Chevron has operations there that never stopped. They seek to expand those operations. They don't use they don't need those trading companies. So those trading companies were a short-term fix for a very acute problem because we wanted to prevent societal collapse because they had no money for revenue.
On the second point about her being still in power look this a couple things. This is not unprecedented. I can point to a number of places. Spain, Paraguay, two examples of places in which there was a transition, you know, from an autocratic regime to a democratic regime. And it took time. I can't give you an timeline of how long it takes.
can't take forever. It can't. It's only It's not even been four weeks since Madura was year two. Well, I think we need to be let we need to be much further along than six months from now, even 3 months from now. That may not be satisfactory to you, but I'm saying we have to be much three or four, five months from now cannot look like what today looks like.
And I think there's acknowledgement on both sides of that. I can probably give you a better quarter of her time. When we finally get people on the ground like the ambassador and the team around her on a daily basis that are interacting cuz one thing is for me to pick up the phone and talk to Deli Rodriguez three times a week.
Another thing is to have someone on the ground on a daily basis that's following these events is talking to civil society but also engaging with interim authorities. But the fact of the matter is that yes, we want to see quick progress. As you said, it's unprecedented. Okay. All I'm saying to you is before this this was stagnant.
Before this, we had spent 14 years. You were involved in some of those efforts. 14 years trying to change the dynamic in Venezuela. 13, 12, 11, 10. I was a big part of my career in the Senate was spent on this. This is the first time in over a decade that we see even the glimmer of an opportunity to change conditions.
A lot of that will depend on us, but a lot of that will depend on them and it also depend on the rest of Venezuelan society. Intel still up 9% ones that want to go back. That's still on the Nvidia River civic and economic life back. Well, yeah. A lot of the pre-market runners lag from the morning. We recognize that.
So yes, we have to be much further along in 6 months. We expect to be further along. And if we and if we're not, I'll tell you, we'll tell you on the third point of use of force. Look, the president never rules out his options as commander-in-chief. Silver and gold at this point probably the dollar.
I can tell you right now that's what caused the the last we are not postured to end to close yesterday. It's been the Trump comments dollar move and then Bessant comments dollar move. The only military silver is a little bit higher though at an embassy. there's still its own little that is our goal.
That is our expectation and that is what everything that outlines towards. That said, if an Iranian drone factory pops up and threatens our forces in the region, the president retains the option to eliminate that threat. I'm asking a more specific question because in your testimony, you suggest that you would use force to compel cooperation, for instance, with oil sales.
Do you agree that you have to come to Congress to get authorization if you were simply using force to try to compel cooperation? Well, there's two things. There's the con. Look, I there's a there's it seems like under the War Powers Act. No, under the War Powers Act, if we're going to be involved in something um that's going to put us in there involved in a sustained way, especify you within 48 hours after the fact, and then if it's going to last longer than 60 days, we have to come to Congress with it.
We don't anticipate either of these things having to happen. Everything is moving in a very different trajectory right now. On the other hand, if we tell them we don't want to see drones from Iran, as an example, pointed at the United States or threatening our forces or our presence in the region or our allies presence in the region and they refuse to comply with the president option in self-defense, didn't Congress already say that.
We don't see that. We don't anticipate it, but it could happen, but we hope not. We don't want it to happen. On the contrary, if we had this hitting the wire earlier that headlines on this talking about I can tell you military action is not good for, you know, uh recovery and transition. That's not what we hope to see because a lot of that will depend on them.
But I think it would it would require the emergence of an imminent they would do they would do [ __ ] like that participate at this time. I think the big part was that the rumor that it coordinated with the CFO buying 5,000 congratulations. What you and President Trump have demonstrated in the past year is clearly peace through strength and I think the leadership from both talk a lot about Venezuelan oil focus a lot on energy going to China and 3/4 of all the oil that went from Venezuela out of the country there last year 75% of it went to China they got it at deep discounts lots of money back to Venezuela through oil for loan deals since the start of this blockade basically Venezuela crude shipments to China have fallen done dramatically.
Can you assess or talk a little bit about the impact this has on China's broader energy strategy? Just to be clear, it's a quarantine, not a blockade. A blockade is a act of war. It's a quarantine and it's been very effective um in the sense that it's given us this leverage. In fact, can I just add something?
And this might be to Senator Murphy's question as well. The Venezuelan authorities are now identifying ships that they want us to grab. In fact, about a week and a half ago, we grabbed one of these ships that was because here's what happened in the aftermath of the Maduro. About five ships took off without authorization from the Venezuelans because they they they were controlled by some network in the country.
With the cooperation of the interim authorities, we seized one of those ships. We brought it back into Venezuelan waters, handed the ship off to the Venezuelans, who in turn fed it into this mechanism, the short-term mechanism that I described to you was created. So, we're seeing cooperation on that front.
Now, I think your question more specifically was about China. Yeah. So, look, China can buy Venezuelan oil, but they're going to have to buy it like everybody else in the world is going to have to buy. Yeah. At at at the at the normal price. And uh and that money is going to flow back to the benefit of the Venezuelan people in a structured way.
And I know that in the short term that will involve healthare is still doing good. It's the opposite of yesterday, but you still got tech leading the Russell down. But again, Eleance, UNH, CVS, they're all kind of catching a bait after dying yesterday. And but it's not just about oil. There's other economic acr.
I mean, Venezuela was and still, we're not talking about some third world country here. I mean, we're talking about a country that doesn't just have wealth. It has memory. It has history of economic activity of people who own chains ofarmacies. I know some of these people of people who own chains of retail stores, including American retailers who have a presence.
We just want it to be a normal. I'm delighted to be back in the beautiful Melon Auditorium. Wonderful family. Tim Melon is a great guy. He's the current version of the Melons. They're a fantastic person to celebrate a thrilling new milestone for America. The first generation of Trump account children.
Trump account children. For the first time ever, we're going to give every newborn American child a financial. Be on the lookout. might announce something new again. A fair shot at the American dream. Something people don't talk about so much, at least not for the last four years. They haven't been, but now they're talking about it big this last period of time.
It's been unbelievable when you see what's going on with our economy, the tremendous investments that's been made in our country. We have over $18 trillion coming in. The most I think was three, that was 10 years ago. another country, not even our country. We have $18 trillion and we have thousands of businesses being built all over the country and hundreds of massive plants.
so big car plants, AI plants. With the support of the men and women here in this beautiful room, over the next 15 years, we're going to put three to four trillion dollars of wealth into the hands of young Americans who otherwise would have really started out with nothing. It's really an amazing thing because it gives young children that start out with really nothing and we gives them boy it's more money than anybody could imagine from their standpoint they'll have a real start in life and that's why decades from now I believe the Trump accounts will be remembered as one of the most transformative policy innovations of all time and I've done a lot of them the tax cuts we've done a lot of them more than I think anybody and I I think this is going to be one of the most outstanding.
Last summer, I signed the great big beautiful bill delivering. It made this possible, too. It actually made this possible. Without it, we wouldn't have been able to do this. Delivering the largest tax cuts in American history, including no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on social security for our great seniors.
And you know, we did another thing. When you buy a car now, you get a deduction on the interest payment if you borrow money. So, think of it. Rich people get so many deductions. I'm the king of deductions. I love deductions. But people, middle- inome people never had a deduction before. Now, they're getting a deduction on interest.
They buy a car. That's going to have a huge impact on the automobile. By the way, there's one proviso. It has to be made in America. If the car is made in another country, no. Yeah. This is live right now. But they're all going to be made in America pretty soon because we have factories coming in from Canada, Mexico, Japan, Germany, all over Europe.
They're all coming here to make He said the same thing in Iowa yesterday and several other times. Very complicated. You'll see those numbers starting to produce. That's why you see these massive construction numbers and soon when those things start opening, you're going to see you're going to see employment and you're going to see wealth creating, bro.
middle inome people like you've never seen before. Every single Democrat in Congress sold those SDXs way too early. I can't believe they went that high. Their whole campaign was raise taxes. I thought those were going to be dead. All my life I grew up. Yeah, that's going up still. I hear politicians we will cut taxes.
We This is the only Starbucks selling off a little too. And then Lunar. No wonder they lost. Actually, there were other reasons also. But together with the majorities in the House and Senate, we overcame their obstruction and we put more money into the pockets of every working American than anyone thought even imagine.
Bro, the STXs went up 600%. I took them out 100 and they thought I'd be good. Beautiful. Those I did not think those were going to hit. More consequential than Trump accounts. Under this program, the US government will automatically create a tax-free investment account for every newborn American child.
something that nobody really would have even thought of. There were some brilliant people that thought of it for a long time. They're here with us today. We're going to introduce a couple of them, but nobody really I mean I've had friends that top people in business. They came up to me whose idea was this.
This is great. They never thought they said I never thought of that. We'll fund those personal accounts with a seed contribution of $1,000 which will compound and grow over the course of their lives and could grow it to very very substantial numbers. Parents, employers, churches, states, and loved ones will also be able to add up to $5,000 in additional money for those accounts.
And with every modest contribution, Trump account should reach at least $50,000 in value by the time the child turns 18 and could be very substantially more than that with slightly greater contributions. The typical Yeah, silver's gone without the dollar,000, 200,000 and can even grow up to past $300,000 per child
per child. Uh we think most likely the most likely case is in the 200,000 300,000 range. The size and scale of this wealth will dwarf all government programs ever created to benefit America's youth. There's never been anything like this. That's why everybody's talking about it. Even really people that truly hate me are making this investment.
One person hates my guts. He spent put a billion dollars into it. They said, "You must like this program a lot because you can't stand me." I said, "I do, but I do like you more than you think." They liked me more in the last year than they liked me before. Although we had a great first term, we can't forget that we had the greatest economy in the history of our country.
But this is blowing it away. So, every president, thank you. Every president in modern history has left our children with nothing but debt. But under this administration, we're going to leave every child with real assets and a shot at financial freedom. We'll ensure that Americans don't just end their lives with a nest egg, but instead all Americans will begin their lives with a beautiful nest egg.
There's never been anything quite like this. I want to express my tremendous gratitude to a very special couple who believe so strongly in this vision right from the beginning that they personally donated 62 $25 billion that's 6 billion 250 even the 250 is a lot of money when you think I mean you know two Nikki do you hear that money that's big even compared to rapping all the money she makes she's here she's hearing a number like that she say how many songs do I have to make to catch that But amazing uh amazing
yeah I kept a couple billion2 million dollar to fund Trump accounts early on [ __ ] everything children age 10 and under and that's Michael and Susan Dell. Two incredible people. Where are you Michael? Where's Michael? Stand up Michael. What a great guy. 18 years they'll buy one semester of car. Why don't we just give them nothing?
How about that? [ __ ] them. Right. You know, I fascism do it for his business. He did it, I guess, probably for I want to go on Reddit now, bro. But you know what? I hope he goes out and buy. I told you Baron, he loves that computer. I don't know what the hell you're doing to it, but he likes it. But I just want to thank you very much.
And Susan, it's uh unbelievable. Really unbelievable what you've done. So, Michael and Susan made this donation in recognition of America's 250th anniversary because there's no better way to honor the [ __ ] than to invest in America for cheating with my best friend. And this is perhaps the largest, one of the largest certainly, but perhaps the largest private donations of all time.
That's a lot. 6 billion, 250 million. And uh somebody did say that conservative women are having kids at nearly 2 to1 ratio compared to liberal women. Is this going to cause a political demographic bias in 20 to 30 years? A lot more than I haven't even talked about the six billion. The news was JP Morgan this morning.
That's what he was saying. The guy who hates him and build you know routinely make such a payment and investment in the youth of our country. Trump began his speech in Iowa asking supporters whether he should run for another term fascist. And I also want to say hello to and thank some very special people that have been with my administration and really become friends of mine on occasion.
I have little arguments but uh generally I would say 2026 might not be bad after all because open AI loses 14 billion. Phenomenal job. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson. Scott, thank you very much. Scott. And he loved this right from the beginning, Scott. Right. He saw this and he said, "Wow, what a great idea that is.
This is, you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars. By the time they reach 18, but we can go 21, they can keep it in longer." But, uh, he saw this right right from the beginning. He said, "Wow, this is great." And we have some other ideas that will be great, but this was one that just hit everybody.
This was an easy one to think about. And again, that bill allowed us to do this. Otherwise, can you imagine trying to get this approved by Democrats and Republicans? Let's get together. We got it done. Also, a man who's made your life much easier because those of you that are building plants and equipment so you can give your money ultimately, you're giving your money away anyway, no matter how much you make.
But, uh, he's made it a lot easier. You know, approvals for big plants used to take 20 years, 25 years, and then you'd get rejected. Actually, you go 20 years environmentally and they'd reject you. You finally, if I think of it, a guy starts young. He starts an approval process. By the time he's middle-aged, they take a vote and he loses.
It's not worth it. But we have a man that's getting these things done in a matter of weeks. And the biggest plants in the world are being built right now, and he's getting them done fast. He's getting electric plants built so that we can buy them. They're paying for them. They want to pay for them so they can open up their AI plants and they can open up their automobile plants and lesser.
So the automobiles, believe it or not, take much less electricity. You're going to have to tell me why you need so much electricity to create information. I said, "What's your primary product?" Information. Oh, I see. Information. It better be damn good information for the kind of money. But uh Lee Zeldon is a star and he has been incredible.
Thank you, Lee. And you know uh I have to say this is Scott and I were talking about it. So Lee went out to California after the fire, which would have never happened. If they would have let the water flow from the Pacific Northwest, which everybody's been telling him, including me now, I just opened it up.
We literally sent in the military to open it up. Wow. But if they would have let, you wouldn't have had the fires because you would have had a little thing called oldfashioned way water in the fire hydrants as opposed to empty fire hydrants. You would have had water in most of the houses had the sprinklers on top.
No, there was no water in their sprinkler in their living room. All those fires wouldn't have started. But they did start. And I will say that uh Lee, the most difficult permit was Lee. I went there a couple of days after the fire. met so many people on the streets were many cases fairly wealthy people some very rich people some of the best houses in California burned down and I said to him uh so what do you want to do they sir we want to start immediately immediately well we'll get your permits now the hardest permanently was the federal permit is that right he got everything done in 20 days right the whole thing is that a correct
bro unh still going again that's helping lift up the Dow here a little bit even it'll help I think they're on ready to No. Oh, no. And I went for a meeting and this mayor who's a grossly incompetent person, she said, "We're going to try and have the permits done years." Remember that? I got into an argu I said, "You mean within two days, right?" She said, "No." And I'm meeting all these people as I'm walking along the streets with the fire departments and the policemen and they're all devastated.
You know, the the they're still smoldering, but they weren't even allowed to go in there. The Environmental Protection Agency local said, "Don't go on your property." Okay. We said, "Okay, don't worry about any any problem is gone. Any problem is burned. Any germs are burned. They're burned. They were burned.
Anything like it, but necessary that it happened, but we got it all done in 20 days. The whole place Good to know." And yet now still more than a year later, they don't have permits. Almost nobody is building. So, I haven't told this to Lee Zeldon yet, but I'm gonna put you in charge of getting permits.
I think we're going to override the local authorities because they're never going to they're never going to have it. And when I was dumping JP Morgan where you can override the local authority, the winner of this speech done, oddly enough, because it's really to me it's a national emergency. What they've done to these people is horrible.
It's just horrible. and they'll still vote Democrat. Can you believe it? After all, it's just they get used to it. Although I must say we converted many. We'll probably convert a lot more. But I just want them to get into their houses. And I don't want a big section of the area built into lowincome housing.
They want to put lowincome housing right smack in the middle of it. This isn't a stimulus check. This is like a 360 deal for the kids. They didn't do that. And like it goes like they can't touch it till they're old. But you don't put it is a tax write off for corporations but then it just pumps the S&P
those people and I recommend it strongly that everybody gets the approval immediate approval to build a house and you give them a 10% bonus bro I wish I can't believe those STXs dog 10% loss that was the worst contract possible and they [ __ ] they've been happy with my 100 build a little bit bigger if you want will you accept the job he's under a lot of stress
a lot of stress all Right. Override those people. Those people are override between the mayor and the governor. They're incompetent. They'll never get They'll never get approved. They'll never get approved. So do whatever you can, Lee. There's a provision that you're allowed to do it and we will. I'll sign it in two seconds, frankly.
Yeah. Putting Zeldon in charge of LA Wire Fire rec. I also want to uh introduce Gavin got mad about that. Frank Bigno. Now, if you met Frank and if you knew Frank, he's quiet, but he's actually a stone cold killer. He was one of the biggest people in business. He would been sitting with you. In fact, now he's got a better seat because he's working.
Trump just said he's friends with the killer. Another reason he's done this, can we frustrating working on social security? He's working with Scott on both of them really. But ICE may have caused an international incident as they illegally try to enter Ecuadorian consulate to the biggest pay cut in history without a warrant to abduct somebody.
He went from being paid 35 million a year to being paid about $35 a year. Carvana is a short report. I think you may have taken the biggest pay cut in history. He'd be close. He'd be one of the top five because a few people have done that. Few billionaires have sort of left. But Frank has gone from one of the most successful people.
He was a he worked with Jamie Diamond. I don't think Jaime likes me too much nowadays, but that's okay. I I never mind at that. But Frank, you are fantastic and you're doing a great job. We appreciate it. Thank you. And thank you to their family. Thank you. The director of National Economic Council, a man who's in the news a lot.
You know, my only problem is I don't want to lose him. I will tell you that he's working from a big deficit because I don't want to lose him. So good. Kevin H. Thank you, Kevin. Thank you, Kevin. A friend of mine, a senator who has been unbelievable. Uh she's a tremendous woman, a tremendous married to a great football player.
She's her husband is a massive man. This guy, he played in the NFL, I guess, for 11 years. He was top-of-the-line player. I met him, I said, "That's not a normal situation. Look at this guy. This guy was seriously powerful, big. And he's as nice as he is big. And she is one of our best senators. Senator Katie Brit.
Thank you, darling. From Alabama. I love Alabama. Alabama. We have We love Alabama. Uh Marsha Blackburn is an incredible person. Fortunately, she's running for governor. She's running for governor. Gotham City Research. I'd love her not to. I begged her. I said, "Marca, don't. We don't want to lose you in the Senate." But I have to say, they're lucky.
They're lucky to get you because you are a you are a talent and a great person, and you've been with me all the way, and I appreciate it. And uh you're a very special person. Marcia, stand up, please. And a senator who's a friend of mine. You wouldn't believe that cuz we went through a rough campaign together.
It was nasty. We got along so well and everybody we actually did joint rallies. Can you believe it? He wanted to get somebody action. So he's smart. He said, "Would you do a rally with me?" But we we did joint rallies and the press used to say, "Will you ever, you know, start fighting?" I said, "Don't worry, it'll come." He said the same thing.
"Don't worry, it'll come." He's a very tough guy, very brilliant guy. In fact, when I said, you know, because I had never gone into a debate before officially. My whole life was a debate, but I'd never debated before. My whole life was a debate officially. And I I said, "Let me find out about my competition.
Who are these people?" Because many of them, you know, they were senators and mostly senators and governors. And uh I said, "Well, why don't we start with this guy named Ted Cruz? Let me, you know, give me Well, he was the best student at Harvard, number one in his class. He was the best student at Princeton or something.
and he was the national debate champion for three years. And I said, 'Well, I don't like that. I didn't know that. I don't like that. And he was very good debater. I will tell you that a smart guy. But uh I'll never forget because he was the first one I looked at. You know, I just joined the ranks of politics and uh the first famous it was the Rosie O'Donald.
Remember that? Only Rosie O'Donald. We they can Ireland you can keep her. Ireland has done us tremendous the head of Ireland said are all your people this way? We don't want that. Are all your people this way? Ted Cruz has one thing that I if I ever have problems because it's hard to get people approved.
He's a brilliant legal mind. He's a brilliant man. If I nominate him for the United States Supreme Court, I will get 100% of the vote. The Democrats will vote for him because they want to get him the hell out. And the Republicans will vote for him because they want to get him the hell out, too. Where's Ted?
Where are you, Ted? And with all of that being said, he's a great guy, too. He's a great guy. We've become popped a little bit more surprising on the House of Common. Thank you very much. Bonds didn't move. The man knows more about it. Everybody that I know, Jason Smith, congressman, wonderful person.
Thanks, Jace. Thank you, Jason. Great job. Idaho Governor Brad Little. Terrific guy. Thank you, Brad. Georgia Lieutenant Governor Bert Jones, who hopefully will be the governor of Georgia very shortly. The rumor is rumor a lot in the polls. He was outstanding as a lieutenant governor. He's great everywhere.
And I've endorsed him fully. So, I don't want to, you know, do anything that you don't know about. I have given him my complete and total endorsement. Bert Jones, where are you, Bert? Thank you, Bert. Great guy. Chief Design Officer of the United States, Joe Gabia. Joe Joe Gia Airbnb. Great idea. Great, great ideas.
Also, we have Mr. Wonderful Kevin Oly. I like Kevin Ol. [ __ ] Kevin Oly. Kevin is so nice. He's with me 90% of the time, but when he's with me, he's really with me. Great. And we got the Tik Tok deal. He's [ __ ] Canadian. Who the hell thought we could do that, right? The [ __ ] I know. I I wish he wanted to buy Tik Tok so much, but And I would have done it, but his price was slightly lower.
Slightly. He wants He's uh he's fantastic. What a good You're an entertainer, businessman. You had the whole quality. So, I I appre I know what you did. Having done The Apprentice. I see you on television. You have what it takes, right? So, I appreciate it and thanks for all the nice things you do. And Cheryl Hines, where's Cheryl?
Wow. Married to a very, very powerful, important man. And I said, I'll tell you, Bobby, she's strong. I watched her in an interview. I said, Bobby, you keep him in line, don't you? She said, yes, I do. She's got no choice. He's doing He's doing a great job, and so are you. Yeah, he's doing a great job.
He's doing a very different kind of a job, too. And he's doing things that people have wanted to do for a long time and they didn't they didn't have the courage. So, say hello to Bobby. Okay. We're also pleased. Uh my daughter, she went crazy when she heard that this was I want to go. you know, she happens to be in the wrong state right now for that.
But when she heard that there's a certain person that's here who's the greatest and most successful rapper in history, Nicki Minaj, I was going to say, come on. And you know, Nicki Minaj and Nicki makes a lot of cash. Not as much as Michael Dell. Not quite. Not as much. Why are we comparing Nicki Minaj to Michael Dell?
A lot of money. and she's generously stepping up. She's investing hundreds of thousands of dollars in Trump accounts to support the children and really really the children of her incredible fans. That's great. Focus on that. Why should you give to somebody else's fans? Give to your fans. I like that.
But uh and and I just think she's great. You know, I've been hearing so much over the years. Nicki Minaj, Michael Dell comparison. She's a big Trump supporter and a Trump fan and she took a little heat on occasion. in her community isn't necessarily, I tell you, we did pretty damn well with it with your community as we as we say.
But, uh, Nikki has been an unbelievable supporter. She gets more she gets almost as much as Mr. Wonderful over here. He's been another one. It's been so good. But, uh, I'd like to ask you to come up, Nikki. Come on. Nicki Minaj. She's been such a great supporter and a great supporter of Trump accounts.
And I said, I'm going to let my nails grow cuz I love those nails. I'm I'm going to let those nails grow, bro. Why? Beautiful. The way it's like four or five inch nails. They look amazing. I said, "Wow." She's been with us all the way, right, Alex? She's been with us all the way. If Trump Trump going to pull up with acrylics tomorrow
and it wasn't so easy for you. It was easier. Donald Trump says he likes long nails. I am frustrated. Should I cut my nails? You've been terrific. I always like doing my nails, but now that Trump likes it, I want to get a nose ring and cut my nails. That was the last person I was expecting to come up here today.
Hello. Uh, damn. They ain't giving her a step stool either. I don't know what to say, but I will say that um I am probably the president's number one fan. number one fan and that's not going to change. And the the hate or what people have to say, it does not affect me at all. It actually motivates me to support him more and it's going to motivate all of us to support him more.
We're not going to let them get away with bullying him and you know the smear campaigns. It's not going to work. Okay. He has a lot of force behind him and God is protecting him. Amen. Amen, sister. On behalf of all the entrepreneurs in America, I'd like to thank you, Mr. President, because we create 72% of the jobs companies 5 to 500.
Kevin Ory said, "Nah, [ __ ] You going to let Nikki on here? I'm getting up on the stage, son. We love policy, pro business policy, and these accounts are fantastic for independence and support." I thank you very much. How many American kids you got, son? an entrepreneur and I think you know that sir.
See y'all keep throwing shade at Nikki. I don't [ __ ] with Kevin. I don't like Kevin Oolir. You know if Kevin Olirri wasn't half ball maxer I would be I would be much more harsh with my criticism. Interlude. I don't know. That's better than getting Scott Bessant up. I think Scott Besson's a barb. Thank you both very much.
Two terrific. I do. Well, Nick is not bad. Trump accounts officially launch on July 4th of this year. Every parent will be able to activate their accounts and access the funds at the trumpaccounts.gov. So, it's all set up, all ready to go. It's beautiful. The site is beautiful. On that glorious day, we also expect to have commitments from generous private individuals in all 50 states, and they'll be making additional contributions for children in their own states.
And already legendary investor Ray Dallio has pledged to adopt the entire state of Connecticut. That's pretty good, Michael. And thank you very much, Ray. Great legend. And today, one of the original advocates of this program has agreed to adopt his home state of Indiana, Brad Gersonner. And Brad's here someplace.
Where's Brad? Come on. I think Michael and Brad, would you come up here, please? Nicki Minaj was the announcement. I mean, this isn't exactly Mr. Wonderful and Nikki, but I think they might be worth more money than Mr. Wonderful, right? These guys are worth a lot of money. But Brad is donating, listen to this, $250 to Trump accounts for all children under five in Indiana.
So, every children, all the children under five, 250. and he'll be donating tens of millions of dollars more in matching contributions to millions of ch children all across the country. He's going to make a massive donation already. We know what it is. Brad is not only one of the most successful business people, he's the founder of the Invest America Foundation and he's been working on this idea for years and he was the one he went over to see Michael.
Michael loved it and those two were a hell of a team along with uh Mrs. Dell, who's been so great, Susan. I also uh delighted to report that dozens of major employers have signed up to add the Trump account contributions to their employee benefit packages, including Uber, Schwab, Charter Communications, and many, many others.
And just today it was announced that Intel, Nvidia, Broadcom, IBM, Stake and Shake, Coinbase, Continental Resources, and Comcast have all signed up for really big contributions. So, I want to thank them. I want to have you two guys come on up. Would you say a couple of words? Brad and Michael, would you say a couple of words?
Brad and Michael, only Indiana. You can't do bigger. We love Indiana, but you know, how about Indiana, Iowa? So, we appreciate it. Big numbers. Thank you. Thank you. Well, four years ago, we set off on a journey to reconnect every child in America with the American dream. This president ran on a main street agenda that too many people had been left out and left behind.
And his articulation of no tax on tips, that doesn't help rich folks. That helps those left out and left behind. No tax on social security. uh no tax on overtime. And when Ted Cruz authored the Invest America Act in the Senate um and Michael Dell partnered with me to bring the private sector to bear on this, we had the opportunity that this president was willing to sign.
He immediately understood the impact that this wasn't about the wealthy folks in America. This was about the 50 million American families who will be living dumping away the American dream because this is now the law of the land for every more forever more. Every child in America from rural Missouri to rural Indiana, from Trenton to Compton, is going to start off life with an investment account at birth seated with $1,000 where they privately own Nvidia and Microsoft, all the greatest com companies in this country, right?
Not dependent on government, independent from government, not more socialism. The answer to more socialism is fascism, capitalism. This makes every child in America a capitalist from birth. And it would not have happened. You guys are helping the kids. I don't [ __ ] buy Scott Bessant without the leadership of the speaker and Ted Cruz in the Senate.
But most importantly, be much more helpful if you did nothing. In America will tell you this. For too long they had no access in Washington to the White House. People didn't want to hear their ideas. This president is voracious in his desire to hear from America's leaders about how to make America better.
This is citizen democracy at its best. An idea that started around a kitchen table in Silicon Valley makes its way to this day. I'm humbled and honored to be here and I'm grateful for your leadership. Thank you. Thank you, Mr. President. Uh, you know, as you heard from Brad, you know, the fact that this bill got passed itself was a was a miracle.
And it creates a platform for communities, for families, for corporations, for philanthropists to add to these accounts. And in not too many years, essentially every child in America will have savings invested in the greatest companies in this country. And that will change the face of this country uh over the next 10, 20, 30 years.
And we couldn't be more excited about this and uh the opportunity to make a difference. You know, the best investment a an a country can make is in its people, especially in its children. And this creates an incredible platform for that to occur at enormous scale. And we're excited to see it all come together.
Thank you all so much. Those are two fantastic people. I can tell you that. I want to give a very special thanks to some of the CEOs here this morning. Vlad Tenev of Robin Hood. What a job he's done. Where's Vlad? What a job you've done. Young guy. Nice young guy to Arjun Seti of Kraken. Arjun. Kraken.
Bunch. Wherever. I'm so glad Vlad didn't give us look backs. He gave you guys 3% man. [ __ ] awesome of SoFi technology in SoFi. Thank you very much, Anthony. These are the ones you read about and Bill Aman is here. Persing Square and Hawk Tan of Broadcom and so many others that I I if I name them, we'll be up here all day.
But I just want to say that uh what a job you've all done. Incredible job. Everybody. Just about everybody in this room. Not everybody. I'm not in love with everybody, but a couple of them I don't like very much, but if they're here, I'm starting to like them a lot better because they're here for a very good reason.
I'm officially calling on all employers all across America to follow the lead of many of these amazing companies and make matching Trump account contributions to benefit for the American worker. And they're going to benefit the American worker so much. This morning, I'm also pleased to announce that Visa is creating a brand new platform which will allow credit card holders to deposit their cashback rewards directly into Trump accounts.
That's a big deal. Visa, thank you. Where's Visa? The head of Visa, thank you very much. Visa, these initiatives could not come at a better moment because there's never been a better time to invest in the United States of America than right now. Who knew it would have happened this fast? I inherited a mess.
We were a country that was laughed at a year and a half ago. We were laughed at. Now we're the hottest country anywhere in the world. Yeah, I feel you, bro. Everybody who donated like hundreds of millions to children that they've never met. He shouldn't even mention Michael. I didn't think it was going to go.
I knew we were going to do it, but take a couple of years. Like if they're all helping out and giving money to the kids, he shouldn't even mention them. Amazing. But like the real it's all a tax break. But we don't want I don't want to give you more ammo 57,000 for the first time ever. Ever ever. So I say America is back.
America is back. Since the election, the stock market has set 52 all-time record highs. Visa kind of tweaked dollars in value and $18 trillion of invest. Remember it did this the other day. Country is going to be higher than that. See if it has any followup. Over one year ago, we were a country that lost its way.
We were mocked and scorned. And every American child will now be and have access to something that is really incredible. And they can watch directly the economic boom that's taking place. This is a boom that's taking place the likes of which we've really never seen. I don't think people, you know, get it yet.
Not a lot of people, they don't get it. They don't see the thousands of businesses being built, the hundreds and hundreds of massive factories that are going up all over. Uh but uh they're going to start to see it. They're starting to see it. I mean, if they're modestly intelligent, if they're very intelligent, they saw it about a year ago.
With us today is Craig Smith, a fourthg generation family farmer and volunteer firefighter from Co Pepper, Virginia, along with his wonderful wife, Heather. Craig and Heather have an 18-month-old son and a one-mon-old that they also welcomed just recently, twin boys, and they can't wait to activate Trump accounts for all three of their children this July 4th.
Craig and Heather, do you want to come up here? Craig and Heather, where are you? Craig and Heather, come on up. Craig and Heather, come on up. Come on up. It meant so much to them. You know, people write letters. Every once in a while, you get a letter. It just hit you. Craig and Heather, come on up.
Thank you. That's great. Wow. Look at this family, huh? They're our rich family now. The kids are richer than the parents. This is the way we want it. I thank you very much. Wow. We just want to thank President Trump for all of his hard work and dedication uh to American families and farm families like ours.
Uh farming is not always easy and sometimes Yeah. Visa and Mastercard still too. I don't see any headlines into our children really help us to buy diapers and formula and not have to worry about um making financial decisions for them this early on. So, thank you very much, President Trump. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you very much. So nice. Also joining us today is the Goens family from Fedville, Arkansas. Charlie works in manufacturing and he's here with his There's a spending study earlier, but I don't know. I feel like it's related to this. 22, Charlie and Savannah open their home to foster care, expecting really
expecting to take in one child, but soon they were taken in a family of three siblings and formally adopting them. Later, Charlie and Savannah also welcomed a biological daughter. Trump accounts will give each of these children a much better start in life. And Charlie and Savannah, where are you? Are you down there?
You want to come up? Come on. How much are they worth, bro? We're holding up a lot of big business people. We There you go. [ __ ] yeah. Michael will take back this donation. Say what? I want my money back. Come on up here. How dare he talk about money and something all about money. [ __ ] Millions and millions of families that are going to be so amazed and so happy at what's taking place.
Sort of a miracle, I think. Nice to see. You're just trying to buy votes. 18 years ahead. I see right through your fascism plan. How dare he? Uh thank you, President Trump, for having uh my family and me here today. Uh my wife and I have spent the better part of our adult lives adv working to advance children in our community.
And it was our faith that first led us to uh open our home to foster care. And it was God's plan that uh that allowed us Absolutely. Look at this guy. How many kids he got? And it was God's plan that uh that allowed us to He seems young, too. Top three amazing children out of foster care. Uh to uh welcome so many more.
and of course uh this past year welcome our youngest daughter Florence into the world. Uh it's through our experience that uh we've seen how opportunity or the lack thereof can um really impact a child uh at the very beginning stages of their life before they even get a chance themselves. And that's why, you know, my wife and I uh uh along with some of the work that the first lady is doing u we are working to uh help foster families and foster and adopted families and personally in in our state uh with protections and support in our home state of Arkansas.
Uh you know, every child deserves hope, stability, and a strong chance uh at a future, a strong future. And uh for young families especially like ours that uh your first priorities are of course your diapers and your wipes and your car seats and all that stuff. And so starting uh yeahu you there it's going up off of that headline all the uranium ones now too
priority list and we're so thankful to have this and I think this sends a powerful message lag for a little bit believes that financial opportunity can start early that it is intentional and that it can impact every single family and my wife and I are so excited that this administration has uh placed families and children like ours at the forefront of economic policy.
and we're so excited for uh the the future of the children and for this country. Thank you. Woo. Low ticker still ticking. Spy going down. Yeah, you got a big candle. 3% on weed. That's a great job. I was wondering. Check news, my friends. Good. Did you notice weed stocks popping getting heavy? That's still 50 pounds or something.
I said, "How much longer is that?" And finally it only had 2% wants to go. But you could see a loving father. I'll leave you I'll leave you the cheap one for you. Was that a loving father? I watched that. He was grabbing. That's a great family. Thank you very much both. Beautiful. So in conclusion, the ultimate success of the Trump accounts will be measured not just in the wealth created.
It'll be seen in young people buying houses. Yeah, they don't. There you go. That went up 300. Make it free. I left it for you. That's what I would do. I would have took it and made it free. You got 50% on the bait. You can make it free. You don't even have the confirmation. Rescheduling speculation.
Been told that the DEA is drafting rules and moving it ASAP. Trump accounts will help bring the There you go. I left that one. There's your confirmation. Community wants to see. There you go. You can make it 50% American dream. The American dream is% I would mention. And then it's going to level out.
See what it does though. If you get more legs and more people chasing that, it'll it'll go a little bit. Others don't talk about it. But we have the American dream back. I think now better than maybe better than ever before. For generations, Washington politicians have done nothing to take from the hardworking people of our country.
They take and take. They do nothing but take. Wow. They've made workers lives harder, set prices higher, pushed your dreams out of reach. And both parties, I mean, they didn't do the job that they were supposed to do. Some were fighting, and sometimes we fight against uh some of the great politicians we have here.
They fight with me, most of them, and we fight to make things better, but we run into walls of other politicians that either don't want to do something or they almost feel like it's a destruction. Oh, yeah. do a push-up, too. I'm about to stretch. But now we're doing something much better than giving the next generation a handout.
We're giving them ownership of America's future so that they can grow up, chart their own destiny, and make our nation greater and stronger and better than ever before. So, I just want to thank all of the people that participated, bro, you could still qualify for a Trump account. Great. So, if your daughter is one years old, the people that are in this room, you've done so much.
You could you could still apply for it and get it. I believe a little bit of a shout. I think you even have like you guys have like 2-year-old voting some of the states donated. If you have 5 years old and you have also get a Trump account as well that it's uh amazing that it got done if you knew the political process.
It was very complex, very hard to get done to get I think they're already going to make your kid the account based on their social but you have to just claim it and Brad and Michael. So yeah, if you already made your kid a lawn term, I would keep building your child's lawm. Thank you very much for being here.
Thank you. Thank you. Well, I was doing the push-ups, man. I hope you guys do your push-ups as well. Get that going. But yeah, there it is, man. Donald J. Trump. Marco Rubio missed it, bro. But yeah, that was interesting. you got to hear. I did not I was surprised by all the guest stars from Kevin Olirri, you had Shark Tank, you had the Nicki Minaj, who else was there?
There was just some again, you had Foster Parents, you had a lot of things, but yeah, you guys should go get your uh go get your Trump account, man, if you have a child. That's pretty awesome. Pretty awesome. There was Yeah, there was uranium news from CNBC on like an investment. Then you had the weed rescheduling rumor that popped it up for a little bit, but it kind of faded.
Uh again, I took one earnings front run and now we are chilling. But yeah, do a push-up, man. I'm I'm actually doing some uh lunges and all that right now. It sucks. Everything went red except for the Dow. So, healthcare recovered today after getting demolished yesterday and then that brought the Dow back up.
Russell once again lagging behind the SPY, but this time everything went down. But yeah, NASDAQ gave up like 7.8. I mean, this is not too uh atypical for earnings. Uh you know what I'm saying? Like you actually uh this isn't like too uh what's it called? I don't think it's that crazy because uh again, you get the earnings.
Some of the ones that really ran, they're doing very good and then that's it. Oh, I put 12:00 p.m. Eastern. You're right, dude. I meant 2:00 p.m. 2:00 p.m. Eastern. I'm sorry. I got excited. You know what's funny, though? Today's the first day people didn't ask me. So when it's the right time, they they like, "Hey, what time is the Fed meeting, Josh?" But then today, it's been the wrong time.
And then nobody asked me, ironically enough. So I think that's a pretty fun fact. And then yeah, gold and silver without the dollar. Weed stocks came down again. You actually still up 50% on the bid from that one play. So good luck if you got it. But yeah, dollar's still up. I'm surpris I think gold is moving more than silver, but silver is finding its way back up.
So again, it kind of stalled, but it's still in the green, still advancing. I mean, that is better than not. All right, let me get a wall stretch. Let me get some trunk twists. Let's get it popping here. Fry apparently does not want to um enforce federal immigration laws, something that he himself posted and then Fry
the markets as we await these big events this afternoon. Dow the only thing in the green albeit slightly. Everything else is just a little bit red. So we did Joe get 7,000. We're two hours away from the Fed decision. A handful of hours away from Meta, Microsoft and Tesla as we begin those mega cap earnings.
uh you know, you got that, you got gold and silver, uh which were ripping again today. The dollar is very much in focus, which was down uh to a 4-year low. The president saying, "Hey, I think that I think it's great." And then the Treasury Secretary making his comments. The US always has a strong dollar policy.
Okay. Uh what do you think? Volatility up four and a half% today. So maybe the message from that increase in volatility is what we've seen in the last several days which has taken the market to the new highs. It's really concentrated. We've lost that broadening out narrative. It's not in play anymore.
So for me personally in the last several weeks I've been buying energy names. I bought Twilio. Um I introduced uh further positioning and Zoom. So I'm buying over the last 10 days. Here we are today. I think it's a moment where you have to take a pause. You have to take a pause. You have to take a step back.
You have to allow for the earnings to come out from the hyperscalers. Let's hear tonight from Meta and Microsoft. Remember something on those stocks. Meta is down 11% since its earnings report. Microsoft is down 10% from its earnings report. Why? It's because there is this perceived risk surrounding spending.
And the reality is we need to hear tonight what the return on investment is for that spending itself. So I think the market we achieved new highs. Great. Congratulations on that. But we're doing it in a very the [ __ ] I got one more stretch in there, bro. Spending itself. So we achieved new highs. Great.
Congratulations on that. But we're doing it in a very narrow capacity and I just think it's time to maybe take a step back, look around, don't get too excited about taking on more risk. Well, Bren, you know, I wish we could show this which we had yesterday and maybe we can the the oneweek move in some of these mega caps because yes, they have underperformed and if you look at them year-to- date, it's sort of, you know, whatever.
But if you look over the last week, many of them have been running into these prints, meta included. And I wonder what that does to expectations heading into this afternoon when it all begins. Scares the option, sir. I I don't think it does much right now because if I actually break these charts down, you know, Microsoft is trading below the 200 day moving average.
And you know, Scott, there's an adage, it's pretty correct. Nothing good happens under the 200 day. So, it would really be great if after Microsoft prints, we could get back above that. I think so many people have confidence in SA and Amy Hood. I know I do. And I think to Joe's point with Meta, the return on capital, they don't have a cloud business.
Are they going to build one? Think about the capex spend there. That just seems like a really poor choice of of of of capital at this point in the cloud cycle. And so I just think that Meta and Microsoft specifically are really under the scrutiny of investors to say, what are you doing for me? What are you doing for me?
How are you monetizing? I think Microsoft's in a much better position because they do have cloud, they have so many other business units whereas Microsoft whereas whereas Meta, you know, are they going to charge for ads now or charge for premium service on Instagram? Are we actually going to do that?
Um, so I think it'll you'll continue to see dispersion among these names all year long. You know, Jenny, we like when Meta reports because it's the only of the mega caps that you own. So, it's our only opportunity to get you into the mix when we talk about these earnings reports and what your expectations are.
Again, it was a tremendous disappointment, at least the price action in the name after the last report and we've had a nice ramp now into this one. So, what are you thinking about? Well, just to be fair and clear, just because I don't own them, doesn't hold me back from talking about them. So, as we as we've learned.
So, okay. Um the way Bin said it where she said we're going to be investors are going to be saying what what can you do for me now? That's exactly where we're at. Bin Brin summarized it perfectly. So they're forecast you guys still have snow and ice in capex this year and we're watching to see if that's justified.
All the rest is easy, right? They have a reasonable multiple. They trade at 20 some odd times. They have really strong earnings growth ahead. Revenues are expected to have grown 22% in the fourth quarter. So So the numbers are easy. It's really it's really exactly what Brenn said. What what are you doing for me?
How are you going to spend that wisely? So, Rod, there there are those who think that these earnings reports bring the herd right back to the names that and that's what you've started to see in anticipation of these reports being good. Deutsche talks today about fresh eyes, attention might swing back to tech that all of these other names.
Thank you, CNBC. Thank you. All right, man. But it is about the earnings. I do think uh the followup I think STX is just doing the [ __ ] Sandis meltup. We talked about it, but the play again I'm telling you the shittiest plays. I sold them at 100%. Because they were like $100 out of the money and they still went up 600%.
So I think people are just going to get hyped on that and then again if you have another set of earnings that facilitates more capex, more of these names doing good, they're probably going to go up. But then again, Microsoft and Meta, I'm surprised they didn't talk about it, but each has their own little story going on.
Uh Meta is about Capex as well as first quarter guide. If they could get Capex plus a good guide, as long as Capex doesn't go crazy. Uh but you want it high to support the other names, but not too high to doubt Mike Mark Zuckerberg's spending. And then a good revenue guide would just I think really change the story for them and help them out a lot more considering how they've underperformed.
And then Microsoft, although everybody wants to believe it's about cloud, it's about AI. They have to be able to show that Azer isn't lagging, but then they want to be able to kind of show some gains out of all of this AI stuff. And if they could do that, I think they'll they'll have a good time, too.
And then there is probably like 200 names, 100 names that will either benefit or lose depending on their capex. So, that being said, too, you got Powell. Uh Powell is in a couple of hours, but I will have a preview about 30 minutes before. It's a very small preview, honestly. There's not really much to talk about with Powell.
I do think uh a lot of it will be live uh in the sense that whatever he says during the press conference, we're going to be here. I'll be here. I'll be yapping away. But, you know, depending on how he handles this press conference, there's like there's a little bit of a cloud overhanging from the last video that he put out.
But other than that, some people are thinking he won't even address it as much or that he'll try to kind of uh brush it off since the markets brushed it off. So, we will find out. Dude, you guys are snowed in still. That's crazy. Is this ice though? It's just cold. A lot of snow and cold in Detroit.
Water pipes burst. School kids are out of school. Oh, wow. So, they get snow days. I've never had a snow day in my life, man. Oh, that's good, though. It seems like it's bad. It didn't I thought it was going to be terrible. Weren't people saying they were like people were going to die. People were It was supposed to be really really bad, but it doesn't seem like it was that crazy, which is good.
Which is good. And then, yeah, man. NASDAQ's back to green. Dow is the leader of the day. You didn't see that coming. That was up almost 1% today. 10° here is fine. Nothing out of the ordinary. God bless your soul. That's ordinary, bro. 10°? That's crazy. I get five times as much as that. I'm freezing.
Do you wear socks inside or how what do you wear inside? Is your heater on? That's 10°. That's crazy, man. God bless you, man. If y'all go to the gym and it's cold, that's amazing. Like 10 degrees cold. That's That's real dedication. You wear snowboarding socks. Yeah, that's what that's what I would I would be wearing the whole snowboarding outfit.
Mhm. 13. Not too bad. What are you guys saying? That's That's terrible. You guys could grow ice. You know, can't you if you left water outside, it would freeze, right? That doesn't happen here. Yeah, man. Wear sock. That's what my feet get cold. My feet. If it get cold, too cold. I don't like it. You don't think we could do felo today?
I don't think we are going to have a felo today. No. So, the Reddit heathens rejoice. Uh, but other than that, you had a good felo yesterday. I could probably drop a couple of oneliners on you before give you a nice little message, but yeah, we're not not expecting a fileo today because of uh Jerome Powell and his mutiny.
So, but we'll find out. You never know. It's not I'm not expecting much from Powell, though. So, I think that's going to be the uh interesting part about everything going on. It's -9 -2. Dude, I saw some of the snow in Canada. I saw people their dogs were going in it. It looks very fluffy. It looks fun.
But yeah, that's okay. What happened? Y'all got the negative 20s. Be safe, man. Be safe. Get a blanket. Get a blanket. Man, I told you my house hit like 53 degrees the other day and I thought that was heresy. Man, Lunar's still going again. I made those free, but those space stocks, they've been hitting, man.
Hitting, but very volatile. Not an easy hit. Yeah. Why don't you guys make ice cream? Grow ice, make ice cream, you'll be good to go. When are we going over earnings? Did you just ignore what I said the first time? So, I answered your question before, man, and then I I explained it and ironically enough, I just gave a little recap, but you were kind of killing time.
I would make your decision now. And if two times isn't enough to get the info, you may want to refrain from playing. Uh but yeah, the real it's going to be a big event though. Uh but and you could wait. I did do another earnings play that's not earnings though. So I think earning sympathies you might have a better shot if you they talked about it on CNBC.
They were just saying that last week or two was the real runup and I I'm glad that we captured it. But I would probably go for the uh the earning sympathies at this point. There's a couple of of them out there. I did break I literally just broke it down. I know that sucks if you missed that twice. That's crazy.
Can you hear me now? Good. Can you hear me now? Good. We must pay much closer attention to what we have heard lest we drift away. Hebrews 2:1. Damn, you just you just dropped the Bible verse on him. Damn. Amen. Amen. Well, good morning. Still pretty early, bro. We got what Euro close was 30 minutes ago.
45 minutes ago. And then you got it to about hour 45 till power power. Uh Boeing came back come back up. That was a red red to green again. That's lifting the Dow. The NASDAQ came back up to green. SPY is too Russell's still lagging. But now a lot of these Dow components and then Intel CX 1.2 on that candle.
See what we got. M preliminary earnings report. Cava again Starbucks they faded a little bit but they have earnings or excuse me they have investor day tomorrow. That one's going to be interesting. Apple earnings are tomorrow. Citing an unnamed source, CNBC says the Fed has not yet complied with subpoenas as Powell probe continues.
Uh, hot dog. Kimber Oh, Kimberly hit 99 again for a second. So, yeah, we'll see. I get my deposit in three more days and we will find out. Those uranium stocks still going as well. And again, spy a little bit off the bottom. It's really I see more Dow and industrial plays. Again, energy, those are the ones moving.
I mean, gold and silver did come back here. Silver is kind of lagging. Gold was the one on fire from last night to this morning. So that's still holding up as well too. Yeah. Alo now high ticker is actually pretty active if you look at the bars. See what we got. NASDAQ 45 in the green, 56 in the red.
So yeah, you remember I think it was a 60 or 70 earlier. And then Dow Jones 16 green, 14 in the red with UNH leading and then Spy 247 in the green, 253 in the red. Great time for Filela. I'll drop a little one on you maybe before the uh uh what's it called? Before the lame duck Powell. But yeah, it's uh we usually don't have Felo on on Powell days.
I've came to accept that over the last seven years. You know, Powell, there was a time we didn't even have Felo actually if you think about it. But yeah, you know, Powell, we got it's s I don't really have a crazy preview for you. It really sucks how how inconsequential today really is. But I think my my real big preview is that I would just expect anything today just in case because even though people I'd say it's a 90% odd then nothing happens but that little 10% and given how Powell has been behaving the drama the dollar where the bonds are at I think you might get a little bit of a surpriser possibly one one in 10 chance.
So, we'll see. But it should be quite uneventful. But even if it is, uh, we're we'll stick to the schedule. Expect the unexpected UPS driver training. No way. US agents involved in Saturday's Minneapolis shooting have been placed on administrative leave. Oh, no way. So, I don't know. Do you guys want me to get political with you?
Is it too early to get political? Because I heard an idea the other day and I think it's kind of a good idea. Would you guys like to hear it or is this is this I don't I could read you Reddit headlines instead. I already did that today. That was a little fun. But yeah, there's a there's a couple of ideas going around, man.
There is a couple of ideas going around. You want it? Okay. So, here's the deal. What if Donald Trump just offers citizenship citizenship and benefits to illegal immigrants if they vote for Republicans in the midterm? It's a It's a bad idea, but kind of a good idea because then that way I guess what if he just offers them the same offer that they would have?
Yeah, I don't think the I think the liberals would start turning into ICE agents if that was the case. That's I know I know you may hate it, but what if he said, "Listen, okay, if you vote for me, I'll let you stay. We'll give you a couple benefits, but you got you got to vote in you got to get out there on the midterms.
It would be it would be a Uno reverse card. It really would. I don't think I think people would short circuit. I think Yeah. Right away some of you were like, "What the [ __ ] What?" Mhm. So, yeah, man. Anything could happen. Is that what Reagan did? I mean, wasn't it was it the ' 80s or the 70s where I'm pretty sure at one point America voted like 90% red?
That might have been it, bro. Might have been it. But yeah, I don't I thought it was an interesting approach to the whole problem as far as the whole social contention. He won all but Minnesota and DC. Yeah, it's pretty crazy how the maps have developed over times. What you guys So, you think it's a bad idea?
I think it's kind of funny, but then it would be kind of effective. I think it would really shake up the landscape a little bit. Well, be careful. They might do it, man. I think, you know, depending on how deep this gets, I feel like that's going to be in the realm of possibility. I want to, you know, we laugh at it for we've laughed at a lot of things in the beginning.
Yeah, AMD, Intel's still going up, but kind of off the highs. I forgot Tesla, too. It's a lot of things stayed pinned, man. You got last 10, 15 minutes, you got this little rally, but you know, besides the morning, there was a couple names that did really good that kept going and then that was it. CarMax going up.
I don't know if they're benefiting off the Carvana short report. And Carvana is still going down. And Bobo's still going up. And then Lunar. Man, that one's actually still ripping. I'm kind of mad. Not really, but that thing has been so volatile. But that was a good play from the beginning of the year.
I can't believe it's been a month, you guys. Don't you realize? Yeah. You have two more. Oh, wait. Today's Wednesday then. And then we're almost halfway done with today. But yeah, you guys realize we're almost done, man. That's it. Two more days including three including today. Two and a half. And then the month of January is over.
Isn't that terrifying? Valentine's Day is on the way. I think you guys are entering in that zone or you might want to start asking your girl to be your Valentine. Don't fight with her. That's what the chat said yesterday. Said you guys got in an argument about it. I think you could avoid a lot of problems and do very well.
All you got to do is just ask her to be your Valentine. You know, it's more of a formality. VG up six again. Alo and those nuclear ones. Whatever this is still popping a little bit. What is this? 920 Voros France and Unilever. There's a couple headlines, but they're foreign. It's been six years. 2020 feels like yesterday, dude.
It's the time time warp continuum. What? First time in 3 years you're going to be single on Valentine's? You recently broke up with your girl. Wait, when? Dog, I swear you had a girlfriend like 48 hours ago. What do you mean? What happened? Did you ask her? Are you just doing this so you don't have to get her a Valentine's Day gift?
Well, either way you guys, you'll be good. The gym is open on Valentine's Day. That's it. And I think just take it as a blessing, but for real, man. I don't I It's Listen, man. It's not I don't think I don't know how many guys in here are excited for Valentine's Day. So, I don't know what you're missing out on, but you know, I don't worry, man.
You're You'll be fine. Mhm. Yeah, you'll be you'll be fine. Broke up last week. Oh, man. Well, sorry to hear. I said, don't don't spiral out of control. That's good. You'll usually run into opportunities though. I mean, you should know the story. Life life gets good after breakups. I told you I even last year, I think a year and a half ago.
No, was it last year or two years ago? I was like I kind of wanted to break up with my girl just to see what how much better things would get cuz that's how my life history has played out. So yeah, man. You guys you guys will be fine. That's it. Make some money. Focus on on on your spirit and your soul and you you'll be surprised.
You would be surprised. You have a daughter now, so you got to get a a gift. I feel I don't have a daughter, but that's a that's a good dad right there. Amen. Oh, I should probably get my nieces Valentine's Day gifts, huh? Yeah, now that I think about it. Thank you, Brandon. Let's go, Brandon. You remember that, bro?
Somebody said that the other day and I was like, dude, I forgot about that. Do you guys remember Let's Go Brandon. So, thank you, Brandon. God God bless you, man. Good morning. Would you like a horn? Does that get you? Would you Does the horn get you hyped? I think it's I think it's a hype day. You guys know, give me like an hour, I'll start to get excited every 10 minutes.
You know, that's what happens on Fed day cuz even though it's going to be a dud, I mean, I think excitement is in the air. Focusing on God, money, and gym. Best revenge. I mean, man, you already got the peptides, too, right? [ __ ] You ready? You ready to go, baby? You [ __ ] ready to go. I didn't back in my day, we didn't have peptides during breakups.
You had to You had to thug it out the the hard way. You had to [ __ ] You got to eat some protein. Now you got instant recovery. That's it. Just don't turn into a looks maxer. Maybe a bald maxer, but other than that, you'll be fine. Post New Year, pre Valentine's breakups are very common. Really? Why?
I thought it just people trying to avoid giving presents and [ __ ] which I could understand. It gets good even if you really wanted the relationship. So, you guys agree with me? I I love it. I used to think my take on this was a little psychotic, but it seems like a lot of people have had this universal experience of a great life improvement.
That's why. So, I don't know. What's meant to be is meant to be. Bald Max could be looks max. Yeah, some for some people. It makes you look good. Just don't hammer your face. That's all you got to do, man. Just stay away from the anvil, you know? Stay away from meth. You'll be fine. It's kind of how I view it.
Moisturize. That's what my girl tells me. You've been single for too long. That's why you got to That's why you need to get the house, bro. Okay? Cuz one day you're not going to be single and them food expenses are going to go up. Every expense is going to go up. Okay? You going to have nice little European babies.
Their expenses go up. So just do it now, man. Do it now. You saving a lot. That's what that's the also. Congratulations, bro. Who got broken up with, man, you got you just doubled your income. I don't know if you real saved on expenses. It should be a chapter in richest man in Babylon. Now now you could save more.
Now 50% of all you earn on food is yours to keep. Isn't that amazing? You broke up with your girl, too. You all got in breakups. Why are you guys just telling me now on Powell Day? What the [ __ ] Y'all had the whole week to tell me it's been We are a month into January and y'all telling me now on Powell Day.
What about Jerome Powell? Is it cuz we're about to break up with Jerome Powell? Is that it? Mhm. Is that Is that what it Man, that's crazy. Is there a such thing as short maxing for us short guys? Yes. I've been trying to share it with you guys this whole time. It's called get a long-term brother. Get a longterm.
That's your only way out of the hype prison. You did you not watch the Donald Trump? What did he say? He got a lot of money. A lot of money. Wow. Everybody likes him. He has a lot of money. That's honestly one of your best efforts at this point. I mean, it took me a long way, but at the same time, you know, you see this killer personality over here.
But yeah, don't worry. I'd like I like the short maxing. I'm a big fan of the short guys. I wish I could inspire the short kings more, but like I don't know. Like I'm too just like if if anybody tripping on your height, bro, they are probably into weird [ __ ] or they're a [ __ ] Okay, I I mean it respectfully, but you know, I've I've I've had different experiences IRL, man.
IRL. And that's it. And you could always import a European. That's what I did. And it worked out very well. She's taller than me, bro. I like to think we're the same height, but any chance she gets, she said, "No, I am to do." And then she started like [ __ ] painting the Lou and [ __ ] I'm like, "What the fuck?" So, yeah.
But it'll be good, man. Just get get that longterm up. Be happy. Do you guys know being happy goes a very long way? Like Like you you think being short is your problem? How about being depressive? Like, have you ever been around a depressed person? Do you know what that's like? Do you can't be bring you can't be short bringing that energy around anybody, man.
So, I think if you enjoy the life you live, man, uh and you bring a lot of enjoyment to it, I think uh you'll you'll attract good things in your life and what's what's meant to be there. It is, man. Do you know like I don't even think you have to be funny. I just think you have to not be depressing nowadays.
No, I'm laughing cuz I don't think y'all re I really figured this out not too long ago. But like I really think that's that's like the big uh that's the really big killer, man. I think some of y'all like you got to re you're like every do you know what it's like in the world? Do you know what it's like being 5'2 and nobody do you know the world is set up against us?
It's not like that's not that's a lot. Like what do you talk about on your first date, man? You got to like I don't know. Like colors are pretty and [ __ ] I don't know, man. you know, do you have a you like animals and [ __ ] Like, you know, there's a lot of cool things that you could be happy about.
But I think I think depressing is the is the real silent killer in terms of uh relationship prospects. You dated a really hot, depressed artist. Well, yeah, a [ __ ] artist. Why you It was the most annoying relationship. At least you gave it a shot. So, I guess you still have a shot if you're depressing.
But he was hot. Like, he was probably tall, too. So, at the same time, you can't be depressed and short. And now, I get how being short can be depressing, but at the same time, I think uh yeah, you can't you can't you can't be doing that, man. Mhm. So, yeah, man. Smile today. How about you do that? You smile.
Happy maxing. Wow. Do they have happy maxing? Oh my gosh. I didn't know all of these offshoots of maxing. It is easier to to get swole when you're short. [ __ ] yeah. That's why the guy all the tall guys get mad when I tell them I be benching. Like he doesn't you don't have to pick it up as far. I'm like, "Okay, bitch." Like what the why are you getting mad at me, bro?
Why are you getting mad at me? Did you just use Juicew World as the counter example? I think you could pick a better example, sir. I love JuiceW. was very talented, but I don't think he ended up good. Let alone, have you seen his girlfriend? That [ __ ] little demon. How dare you? You know how she stained his legacy?
I even I got more respect for Juice World than she see. Don't be depressed, man. Go get smile color. Yeah, animals, bro. Happy maxing. I like it. Well, it was a nice ramp, but the market didn't like it. See, like imagine when the market gets depressed. You guys don't even like it. But then some people don't like the market when it goes up either.
We've gotten less of those though. I think some of you don't recall like four years ago, 5 years ago, 10 years ago. People used to get really mad when the market would go up. I don't know if you guys recall cuz you guys know it's been like a decade of everybody thinking it's supposed to crash and it's a bubble and then we got real inflation.
That's the funniest part about it cuz then you're like, "Fuck this. It's unsustainable. Quantitative easing." And then here we are. today would be more volatile. It will after the bell. I mean, Powell's going to bring some movement, but this is what I was saying the other day. This is kind of a typical earnings.
Like remember earnings, it does this. It'll gap up in the like a lot of the move here was overnight. So, remember we closed like right here yesterday. No, I think it was like right dude wasn't it like right here and then you melted up after hours on the reports. Then you gapped up this morning and then we started moving down.
So, it's going to be like that. You're going to have a lot of like even today Microsoft Meta you're going to have it at the end of the bell that's going to probably move us pre-market post market and then you're going to start moving up from there. PLTZ Oh yeah, it's not too bad. CAT earnings in the AM.
Second biggest Dow component. GM, what's his name? Was at the Iowa thing yesterday. Deer. John Deere lot of equipment. Yeah, Caterpillar is [ __ ] ripping. Again, industrials, man. I think industrials have been one of the most purchased uh on the year actually again and then manufacturing industrial activity that has all just been running up.
None of that has slowed down and that's like part of the run it hot theme. you have seen that hit directly in manufacturing uh right in like first 30 days uh without any delay and again energy is good then we got the damn critical mineral stuff so not too bad but yeah I would expect moves like this even till next week next week you're going to have a lot of mid-tier companies a couple more big ones and then we'll probably free up a little bit depending on whether or not it pushes us out of the highs and then then all eyes will be on Nvidia And then you'll be towards the end of the quarter or like middle of it and then end of the quarter uh March that's the real Fed meeting we want and then before you know it less less power man less pow pow nu ai kind of big pop uh it's tweaking out a little bit and then no defense cat's up 100% since liberation Okay, VB WDC.
Is STX gone? I That one was crazy. Can't believe it. I can't believe it. The long term keeps jumping jumping. Is Rubio still talking? Then more space stocks again. There is that rumor. Trump live with Nikki. Oh, is he going live again? No. Yeah, he already talked. But I think they might have another meeting.
How about your guys' favorite? Elliot staking in Toyota. They haven't ruled. Dan, last time Elliot bought Pepsi, they [ __ ] killed the rally. Ain't that something? situations where like the crosswalks are impassible, bus stops are a mess, um you know, snow plows are plowing snow back onto the crosswalk.
Donnie holds press conference to discuss Adam's budget crisis. Um now that you have this storm under your belt, are you looking at any new ideas for snow clearing and dealing with future storms? So people, you guys want me donn wheelchairs? Absolutely. We will continue to look at every which way that we can deliver for New Yorkers and we want to make sure that every single New Yorker no matter their mode of transit is getting that delivery from from Robinood is ready.
I think I can just give you look like a magician. recent statistics of what we're talking about. As of 17 this morning, the DOT workers have cleared a total of 3,00 shelters, which is about 95,400 bus stops with shelters. As you've said, property owners are responsible look like and the positioning around some of the the retail traders that use Robin Hood.
How they never do Dude, that's the first time I made that connection. Yeah, there's a lot of enthusiasm about a few technology waves. Obviously, AI has been now you see the buy button, now you don't part of the of the last couple of years and people are looking to public markets to get weed is going up again.
Seeing the the AI names other frontier technologies spreads are a lot wider this time. Computing electric. That one play you got that one I left for you still up there. Hold on. you're getting another weed rumor are gaining momentum as well. But also a lot of the best companies and the second one if this could really break but it hasn't gone above three this whole time.
One of the other crusades that that I'm working on which I think is very crusade accounts initiative is how do we get regular people exposure to these private companies and upside now you're seeing a world where many of the top AI labs are you know private valuations of hundreds of billions possibly won't go public until they reach the trillions which means that a retail investor going into an IPO these companies would potentially have to get up to the hundreds of trillions of market cap for them to get 100x.
So, it's it's not like, you know, buying Apple or Microsoft and and seeing a 100x return in public markets. I think that's going to be harder to come by and I think that's uh a very dire risk that we're worried about with AI that we're working really really hard to uh to counteract and and to mitigate.
Speaking of dire risks of AI, Daario Amode get m much buzzed about very long post. He's the founder of Anthropic about some of the dangers facing humanity around AI both economically, society. I know you have very strong views on this. What were you thinking? Yeah, and and I really like Daario. I I like how, you know, he writes these long pieces and, you know, every year or so he drops one.
It's like it's a medio. But yeah, Oracle the the danger is we can get distracted by infinitely many low probability risks while ignoring the thing that's right in front of us which is these private companies are raising capital at the valuations of hundreds of billions and and the people benefiting from that are dozens.
Blackstone commits debt and how can we get that to millions? It's only for one project though. Well, if if retail investors don't get exposure to these companies, that's good, though. Like I'm saying, their credit default swaps are [ __ ] It's not like in crypto. Crypto did this right from a very early point by distributing the the value, letting regular people uh have exposure to it.
So saying any of those other deals, the Amazon, any funding for OpenAI with Soft Bank this morning. Blackstone just sold off some unit and now they're going to if they do any debt for that, it'll be good. accounts initiative. I'd love to see a way to get AI companies to donate their shares so that the future generation uh gets exposure to that as well.
And I think we we have mechanisms. That's why I'm excited because this isn't just a one-time donation by the government. It's a platform for private individuals, businesses, philanthropic organizations, churches to all uh direct money into the future just borrowing money from the future and and leaving the next generation with higher and higher debt, which is what's largely been happening.
So, yeah, I I think I think the president has done a a tremendous leadership. Um, this program is is starting off very very well and we're excited to to support and and do what we can to make it a success. Yeah. Certainly fits in with your ethos at Robin Hood. Vlad, thank you for taking the time here at the summit to talk to us.
Appreciate it. Always a pleasure. Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robin Hood, on a mission, Scott, to to get more investors into some of these private AI companies and share the wealth. All right, Sarah, thanks for that. Up next, Seni with his midday word. Well, thank you for that, Vlad. Appreciate you. Yeah, so you had weed and Oracle on that Blackstone investing, but didn't I mean, it was up more off of the off of the morning hype, but then it faded.
Yeah, you do have Iran adviser. Any military will prompt Iran to target US, Israel, and their supporters. Does Vlad sound like Charlie Kirk? I didn't catch that. No. Rest Rest in peace, Charlie. Bro, rest in peace, Charlie. Well, I know. I I guess I'd have to listen. Let's see. Space exploration. They had a good day today.
What time is it? 9:44. So yeah, man. We got like what, hour 15. It's so weird, man. The VIX is going up. Skew is going up, too. Interesting. And then again, this is the biggest volatility of gold compared to spy volatility. So the it's actually hasn't been like this since Lehman Brothers. Did you know that gold volatility is so high and then stock market volatility is so low?
Yeah. No look back options. But hey, you could get 3% on your collateral for buying options and selling premium. So, not bad. You know what I'm saying? Not bad. Not bad. It's okay. Options still expire worthless, but it's cool. We didn't We didn't [ __ ] need that. It's not like the market moved like 5% back and forth and that would have been very helpful.
[ __ ] yeah. You know what I'm saying? [ __ ] that. I get it. I get it, man. It's cool. They're lucky they don't got a liquidity. The liquidity eased up a little bit. You guys missed the window. that window last year. Y'all thought I was playing with you. You had a window, dog. You had a window. Now you got 2026.
You're wearing a Lehman Brothers08 risk management hoodie right now. Wow, dude. Did you see? I was going to buy one of these. You want me to show you what I wanted to buy? But don't buy it cuz then someone's going to buy it when I show you it. I know you guys. Let me see if I can find it. Let me see if it's still for sale.
Oh, it's Oh, it Wait. Damn. The one I wanted sold. [ __ ] All right. Would Will you guys buy this for me for Christmas? Will you guys get me a gift? But I don't know how I feel about this. That's why I didn't buy it because I was like, I don't know how much I like it. Oh, wait. That's the other one.
Hold on. This one's a new one. I was going to buy uh Bernie Maidoff trade slips. There was a Intel one, but now this one just got listed. There was a Bernie Maidoff Intel slip from 2000. You could see you could buy the actual in. Look it. He bought Intel, bro. And he would send these to the clients.
So yeah, that's I guess 25 bucks, bro. Collector's piece. A Bernie Maidoff slip, man. Mhm. Yeah, they had Bernie's old suit for sale. Then I started looking. I was like, what are they [ __ ] selling from Bernie Maid off? But I guess he doesn't hold the same collector value. But you know, he made the NASDAQ, right?
We don't we don't want to talk about that. But yeah, you know that, right? Bernie Maid off is the like made the NASDAQ like no like no exaggeration. Mhm. Some Enron stock. I know. I feel like they'd be collector's items, but then it's like, you know, usually like the biggest scams in the world don't really have the uh the thing.
I was gonna buy some of those [ __ ] those Parkinson's patches from Sam Bankman, but I didn't know. I don't think that's legal. But yeah, I don't know what what it was. You saw Enron truck in Louisiana? What? Hey yo, as ESTS and GAT, but literally all these satellite, I was telling you guys the rumor this morning, but then even [ __ ] Lunar is already up 12.
Ay, yeah, those are fire, bro. But yeah, all the space stocks today, that rumor actually gave it a little bit of legs. I don't know if it was the rumor or if everybody was kind of front running it. Best I could do is Bostic Insider trading slip. It didn't. It wasn't. It would gave off the appearance.
It was the appearance of insider trading, but he was not found guilty. They still got Enron trucks. Enron was violent though, man. Have you ever seen the Enron documentary? Like Enron was like sav, bro. I I think you could argue they were like they were sliming fools, bro. Enron was not like they were not friendly.
Enron's like Boeing, but then like Enron would uh like if the analyst didn't if you didn't [ __ ] with Enron, you would lose your job. You know that? So like if you were an analyst and you said anything but buy rating, dog, you got black ballalled. It was not a not a fun time. Mhm. He also brought it down for a little by the dip.
Habibi by the dip. made off. Lunar, lunar, lunar, can't you see? Sometimes satellites hypnotize me. No. Okay. The earnings call. I've heard one back in the day. Do they have them on YouTube? A Colt hoodie? Maybe. I feel like we missed I should have made it before a [ __ ] winter storm. I feel bad. I should have made y'all blankets or something.
Colt blankets. What is it? This is April 2021. In Skillings public image appeared 2000 took question midway. It was balance. They can't produce a balance sheet or a cash flow statement with their earnings. Well, you you you Well, um, thank you very much. We appreciate this [ __ ] [ __ ] That's a conference.
And then quite audibly you could hear Skiillig say [ __ ] And then he said [ __ ] Damn, bro. See, maybe that's intel. Come on. You [ __ ] Whatever. Intel's up 10 today. Yeah. FBI execute search warrant at Fulton County Election Office in Georgia over 2020 election. Uh, Bitcoin going up. I do I I think a blanket is I don't know.
Are you guys into blankets? This is maybe an odd question, but like I have a lot of blankets at my house. I have a lot of like the throw blankets and [ __ ] I [ __ ] with blankets. I'm a big fan. Yeah, but I don't like blankets when I sleep. I just like them on the couch. So, it's just a very odd thing, but that's why I just I like couch blankets.
Is Oracle holding the only thing I don't like about Oracle, man. I think and then again, I mean, if give it another quarter here, [ __ ] you could even take the risk now if you really insisted. But if we run out of good value and there's only growth left and then if Oracle does come down, I mean, that one's enticing.
Qualcomm looked pretty interesting, too. And now, think about these, too. Some of these plays that are lagging, if they have good earnings, they could come up a lot or they might even start to frontr run a little bit as we get the other stuff. Yeah, the debt. It's not They had the debt for a while. It's just people started tripping on Open AI.
It was all literally after that podcast where they were like, "How are you going to spend 10 times more than you make, sir? You want to sell your shares? Is that what you want to sell? I'll buy yourselves right now, Brad." So, yeah. All right, SPY's coming back to that little last time we had a rant again.
Uh, Bitcoin going up. I don't know where gold, silver, and then uranium as well. And then the space stocks, those have kind of been up all day. But yeah, that was that time. I mean, it was a couple months ago now at this point, but ever since that like interview and like right before as people started to question it, that's where the Oracle [ __ ] started getting bad and then yeah, I think people started doubting.
And then also too though, Gemini took over. Uh even even Anthropic, dude, Anthropic is actually like I hate to say it, they're running laps around OpenAI right now. It's kind of crazy. So again, they just updated their revenue guide yesterday. We should do Colt gold pendants. Now, how about like a class ring?
You know that? I've always wanted a class ring, but I never got one. I was like, why would I get that? We should make like a Super Bowl ring. That's it. Once you get a lawn term and you you close on your first house, we'll have that option available. You'll get a Colt ring. You can put on your pinky.
I don't smoke cigars, but you could smoke cigars. Can you make it in silver? Can you could wear silver, right? Silver doesn't isn't bad for you. Why don't we make it in copper, bro? Why don't we get Let's get real early and ahead of this. We can make it out of copper. You like Josh got me a 10 pound ring for my for my longterm.
Do they have co Can you wear copper copper fit? Yeah, Carvana is still on again. That last time when we were saying it's coming back down. Holy [ __ ] That just took another 20 bucks. Now, more nuclear SMR. Your heated blanket. Be careful. Just don't sleep with it. You see that people like sleep with their heated blankets and they get like [ __ ] up.
Dangerous out there. Oh, I think I don't think they pulled a credit line. I think they just stopped adding to it. But that does sound familiar. Do I f with watches? Not really. I missed very good opportunities with them, but I know a little bit about their value. Uh, and I've I've advised some people just because.
But like people, have you noticed people stopped asking so like a lot of people chilled out on because they chilled out. I mean, watches are still expensive, but it got a lot worse in terms of like the watches that really held. But then you also had to have a, you know, just same collector value. Like you can't wear them if you really want to, unless you got like a crazy AP or not, excuse me, like a PC Nautilus that was like at retail back in the day.
You could wear it a couple times and still, you know, have a bunch of money on it. But yeah, you know, if like remember like a year or two ago people asked me about it. If you uh if you bought like one of those watches like a Rolex, even a damn Daytona and you started wearing it, you didn't it it held its value.
You got to preserve some value, but it didn't necessarily uh make you money. But like if you buy a watch and don't wear it, I mean you at minimum you'll get your money back assuming it's not like a two-tone or or a watch that nobody wants. But that is the uh kind of the breakdown they're feeling. It just it hasn't happened in a while.
I can't remember the last crazy watch that came out that like like valuewise, isn't there? Let me see the index. Here's the Kronos index. The Krono 24. It just chilled. So again, it got a little hyped end of last year, you know, beginning on Trump tariffs, all of that. But watches, this is the index.
They they do it on an index, but a lot of the watches haven't like really moved. And then it's very sensitive uh based on the uh like the type of watch it actually is. That's what really uh move things around. Yeah, it does hold value. That's the thing. But that's kind of how gold used to be. That's what I'm saying like gold most of them most of my holding gold and everything uh it was uh it just didn't move like your money was worth what you spent on it but then again you wouldn't really wear it out.
GD GDRX always scams with that but there is a headline on the Trump RX but GDRX just never got involved. I think they did and it still didn't go up. Well, yeah, it's it's earning season, so like that kind of rugging that you're noticing, it's kind of normal. USR talks on stronger rules for key industrial goods, meeting with Mexico.
Oh yeah, this is kind of a typical earnings reaction, but yeah, you had a the momentum is a little bit different. Much nicer than the Lambo Index for sure. No one's made a real Lambo Index though. I wish they would have. Dylan, Colorado webcam. [ __ ] That's what the New York video went to. Yeah, the watch the watch flippers that's start that's that was during 22 23.
You had so many people trying to buy watches, walk down the street and sell them. That was a big thing. The only jeweler guy that I like is Traxxen NYC. That's the only dude that I like because he actually gives you information. He was actually even talking about silver refiners the other day. I saw a video.
I said, "What? I [ __ ] with that." Yeah, Vukum was the first like watch flipper dude, but then that kind of started a wave of [ __ ] trying to just a lot of them are fake like where they just, you know, they're buying you. You're not buying a watch and selling it for three grand down the street. Like a lot of it was kind of that was kind of the entertainment, the hype.
But like tracks, I [ __ ] with him. No, no, no. Tracks NYC. He's the man. I've been to this store in New York. It's not even like they It's so Have you ever been to the Diamond District? It's such a weird place. It's nice kind of, but like you go in there, it's like you walk into these stores with like five other 10 other companies.
So like he's in u Yeah. Tracks. I've been to the place. It's like a It's like a company. It's like a store and it has like 10 other booths and there's like other companies that they share it with and then Traxx has the the shop in the back too. He has his own thing. But yeah, that's how they all are.
There's like a couple of other big companies that own their own building in there. But it's a it's a cool little place. They got the little diamonds at the end of the street and like on the stop lightss. It's pretty interesting. Johnny Dang. Okay. Okay. Paul Wall. Dude, I need to find my grill, man.
You know that? I don't know where my grill is, but that thing's worth like four grand now. You know that? I need to find my grill, bro. I stepped on it and then I put it somewhere and I said, "Okay, ever since I stopped wearing it, bro, I don't know where it is, man. I need to find my grill." You guys know that I have I have a grill.
I have a gold grill like Paul Wall for my teeth. I bought it like six years ago. I put 1 oz of gold into it. I was I was bored. The gold was [ __ ] doing nothing like it always did. So, I said, "I want to put it on my teeth." And then I got a grill made and I had it. It was fun for a little bit. It looked It just made me look like I had alien teeth.
It looked like I was missing teeth when I wear it. But yeah, I don't know where I put I stepped on it once cuz it was it fell off my desk and then I like it wouldn't fit anymore. But yeah, I don't know where it is now. It's somewhere. I have it somewhere, but it's definitely worth $5,000 now. It's kind of annoying now that I think about it.
Where's my grill, bro? I'm gonna go find that today. I think I need a It's worth enough now where I should go hunt for it. Well, it's not 24 karat gold. Then like it's a rose gold, so they mix some aluminum into it. So, it's it's at least maybe worth like 4k. I don't know how the refine I don't know how we going to refine it.
Yeah, I'd melt it. I don't know. Can we bring grills back? Well, how would you feel if I met you and the first thing you see is I'm wearing a gold grill? You like Josh uh AP, this is a post earnings. They're down 10, but that's starting to run up right now. I don't know if they have a delayed call or something.
Then it's 10 and then Google settles Android data set case for 135 million. Amphanol. I tell you to get a lawnm. I got a long term in my teeth, son. A long time in my mouth. Look at this shine. Look at G [ __ ] G physical G. So yeah, that's what probably what I would reply with. Yeah, APR. I just popped two and a half% right there.
I lit I literally went from grills to grilling. [ __ ] man. I'm getting old. Sad. Rose gold was with copper. Oh, dude, you might be right. It might have copper in it. [ __ ] yeah. I definitely I'm up on that cuz I swear copper was like a dollar when that [ __ ] was made, bro. I don't know how I think it's only 20% copper, but still that's at least $4 a pound.
Damn it. I only got like It's not even I probably made like 30 cents. I like Nike. I mean, Nike is one. I just hate how it bounces off those damn lows. But in that 57, if it ever comes back around here again, we'll see. We get our next deposit. You know, we got a couple of names we still like, but if that kind of fades back down, I would I would not be afraid of Nike.
And then Oracle is trying to work its way up. I got a grill with my grill. All right. Damn, we missed push-ups again. I want to say do a push-up. Um, do you guys want to hear? They have a live event at the at the Trump thing. People who want to build a small business or have a dream. Oh, this is hosted by the Treasury
audio sucks and I think about all of the kids that didn't have exposure to this to to get involved. All right, are we are back? Well, here's the bathroom. Move around a little bit. don't see the US intervening, but that doesn't mean the Bank of Japan wouldn't get nervous should a resurgence in selling the yen occur again.
Even though history dictates that they should probably not intervene, I think that may be a possibility. Yeah, absolutely. And there it is again. You can see a little bit of that weakness after those comments this morning back up to 153. Rick, thanks very much. Rick Santelli, thank you. Now, while Chair Powell's press conference could kind of get into politics today, uh let's say my next guests are laser focused on what he will say on the labor market because that will ultimately determine the pace of rate cuts and the dollar this year.
Joining us now, Claudia S is chief economist at New Century Adviserss and Steven Whiting is the chief investment strategist at CIO Group. Welcome to both of you. Steve, I'll just start with you and and the expectations again, no move today, but do they leave open concerns about the labor market or do they get rid of those with more hawkish tilt, do you think?
Well, private sector employment rose 29,000 per month on average in the fourth quarter. Now, again, we got to remember this is a quarter that's tracking close to 4% GDP growth for the third consecutive quarter. There were a few distortions in private sector employment from the government shutdown. So, it's uh a slowdown in the labor market that's very real.
While massive growth in data center spending is pushing up GDP, I think the Fed's perspective, they don't have a GDP target, they have labor market concerns. So, I think it's very plausible that if they can see inflation subside deeper into 2026, they're going to be focused again on the labor market and probably take some additional action.
What about the, you know, we talked to Mike Furley at JP Morgan a week or two ago and they've come out and said they don't think there's going to be any more rate cuts. And I said to him, "What about the weakness in the labor market, this 29,000 pace that you mentioned?" And he said, "That's the new normal.
The new normal is between 0 and 50 for a healthy labor market." The reality is, if we're seeing a uh technological force and demographic forces, too, which a little more complicated, but a technological force push up structural unemployment, there's little the Federal Reserve can really do about this and still meet its inflation mandate.
But I don't think it the Fed will stop trying. Right? So in that case, we think that the Federal Reserve will still try to act with counteryclical policies and push us a little bit lower and better that they do that than eventually plunge us back to zero rates in QE. So you think the bigger concern, in other words, you want them to ease a little bit now so that we don't have an economic blowup that results in zero interest rates again?
Well, we can't always prevent every economic blowup we see, but um there are all sorts of instabilities. There's some financial instabilities. There's difficulty meeting employment and inflation mandates in a period of technological change. So all of these things are hard for the Fed. I think that 175 basis points and rate cuts has given them a pause today.
They're in the neighborhood of doing the best they can. Claudia S, are you in the camp of more cuts here or or no? I expect there will be more cuts, not imminent. And and I do think the the Fed is in a position. They've done 75 basis points of cuts late last year. There is fiscal support coming on early this year, household and business tax cuts and and there's some sign in the data that the labor market may be stabilizing.
The unemployment rate kind of leveled off late in the year. So, I think the Fed is in a place where they want to gather evidence about what's happening in the labor market and gather a lot more evidence about what's happening in terms of inflation. I just think it's going to take some time, but they are still pointed in the next move is down, not up.
But it sounds like you're saying you're not sure the next move should be. If the chair sounds like you this afternoon, the Dow's going to be down a thousand points. No. Well, I think they they really want to stick to the evidence and the economic conditions. This this is a Fed that has been in risk management mode for years.
Like this really is a defining characteristic of the Powell Fed. And they moved on downside risk to employment that seemed to be building. Those seem to have backed off some. We still have elevated inflation. inflation is still running above the 2% target. There is a risk that we get stuck at at the kind of close to three and not 2% and the Fed needs to be sensitive to that.
There are some signs in the data and I think pal may mention this today some signs that we are going to get some relief on the inflation side that that's turning but they just want to build the case before they start cutting further. I I forget who it was on the show a few days ago, Claudia, who said um the president doesn't realize that Powell is the biggest dove on the committee, right?
because he seems to be staking out a position where where people could differ and they could they could say more what you're saying. They could say there's a risk that this becomes entrenched. 3% is the new 2%. The Fed's not going to finish the job. Powell actually has usually taken the other side of that so far.
I mean, they did the cuts last year. He's talked about productivity. He seems to be more sympathetic to the labor market. Do do you think that's correct? Well, I So Pal is very cognizant of what's happening in the labor market. And if we think about the 175 basis points of cuts that we've seen in the last two years, they have been motivated by trying to shore up and give insurance to the labor market, like inflation is elevated, but inflation is not elevated in a way that you want to risk a recession over it.
So, and I think pal sits very much in the middle of this committee. There's there's a wide disagreement. There has been for several years now. What's happening with inflation? What is it going to take to get inflation down? There's a lot of disagreement. I think pal is very aware of the labor market.
The Fed has moved to support the labor market, but you know, inflation is an issue, too. So, it's a big balancing act. It has done a good job with it so far. To both of you, Claudia, first to you, are we going to import? I just made $5,000 on with the dollar. Does anything happening and that you've seen all of the discussion about anything that you're worried about?
Well, so the piece of evidence, dude, it looks so nasty. Goods inflation starting to turn down. That's been I want to try it on, but then I'm like, I need to clean this inflation that's coming from goods subside. Yeah, bro. I found it. Weak dollar could I got it. Put some pressure in the other direction.
Like, we need to see that improve. Should I give it away? You guys want to do a giveaway for my grill? So, I don't want to like overstate. That's crazy, bro. This is probably one of my stupidest purchases ever. A little bit, Stephen. And this is for another discussion to think that this thing is like what Stephen Myron was writing about before and kind of this re orchestrating of the trade keep the reserve currency maybe weaken it and do all these things.
the the concern from tariffs was that the dollar would strengthen to offset that impact and and you gota keep it, bro. You gota keep it. If they run into a situation or whatever, this is becoming an heirloom and we have a weaker currency that could potentially I was going to give this to my son. You know what I'm saying?
Inflation is I was going to be like you're when you get older, you're old enough for your first grill. A spiral I think is relative. There you go. You're old enough for your first grill. Everybody, every young man needs a [ __ ] needs a [ __ ] grill going in an independent direction. You want to wear it, dog?
Dog, that's not how grills work, dog. Of global tariffs. It's literally gold molded to my teeth. Some cost to have this trade uncertion last year and yet we've seen manufacturing employment decline every month since April, right? So the costs of uncertainty are very high. And you know, we take a look, you were talking about this earlier, we I mentioned 4% GDP growth for the third consecutive quarter and yet the strongest performing assets are gold and silver.
So this type of uncertainty is very concerning for portfolios and for investors. Barring that, we should be able to come out of this and put together a pretty strong expansion. So it's very important that US policy uncertainty come down. So do you then stay exposed to US equities which have continued to hit new highs international?
I mean there's a lot of the stock markets globally seem to be quite merry about all these developments. Ironically, the US does some things exceptionally well. Software, commercializing AI, um, a good deal of what we do in healthare, but we've incrementally moved to add non US assets, right? And that is definitely to get exposure and year-to- date, uh, we're 4% stronger in non US equities than we are in the US and we're keeping allocation to the CIA group and things like assets like gold, which are again, like you said, behaving like a meme stock.
But you're in it. You're in the trade. You're not fading it yet. That's interesting. Not jumping out uh just at this moment. We appreciate both of you joining us today to kick things off. Obviously, it'll be a busy next hour. Claudia S, Steven Whiting. We appreciate it. Coming up, three mag seven companies are also on deck to report results after the bell today.
We'll tell you how high or low the bar is ahead of those prints. But first, we'll hear from the commissioner of the Social Security Administration on that program and the launch of Trump accounts for newborn babies. JP Morgan, I think, is the latest company to say they'll match contributions. 45 minutes until the Fed move on interest rates or lack thereof.
We're back after this. This is The Exchange on CNBC. That's crazy, bro. Are you ready? Are you guys ready for it? I don't know if it's a good enough picture. It looks It doesn't look as nasty as it the picture, bro. Why my camera catfishing this [ __ ] dog? It kind of look dope in the picture. You could tell it's gold.
Oh, this is disgusting. That's amazing. Yeah, bro. All right, go on my Instagram. That's crazy, bro. You can see it. You thought I was kidding. I literally just found this I put it on the wallet so it didn't it my mouse pad looked ridiculous. That's crazy, bro. I'm worried about tariffs that the dollar is weakening.
No, not as that's what I was saying yesterday with the GDP. They keep saying 4k or 4% 5% 6%. But just remember like you know some Europeans just want to transfer their money but weaker dollar starts to make us a lot more attractive for goods and services. So maybe you'll get it. It won't again 5% GDP on a way weaker dollar still means something but nominal that's why you remember how Blutnick kept saying that nominal GDP nominal GDP here.
Go look at my go look at my Instagram story. You can see the degree. It should look familiar. If you've really followed me for a long time, you know, you you know exact. It's the same one, bro. I just can't believe it. I thought I lost this thing, bro. That's why I had it. I had it in a little fanny pack.
I knew where that was. I was like, "Let me check that." And it was there. This one didn't even make it to the safe. I have all my other gold and silver. I only I only keep my Ever since gold and silver became worth money. I only keep my one or two Washington been hearing from a number of my one or two ounces of silver now.
Oh, wait. What does it sound like, bro? Oh, you hear that? That's the grill on silver. Does it sound different? That's gold on silver. That's silver on silver. You can kind of hear it. Amazing. I can't do that though. Gold is soft. That is so stupid, bro. My teeth are kind of small. I'm looking at this thing.
Oh, yeah, man. It's pretty funny. Pretty funny. Riff Raff vibes, dude. It's This was I guess it was That's over 10 years old now that I think about it. That's probably 10 years old minimum. I want to say I got it made in 2015 or 2016, maybe 2017. I think it's just under 20 2017, man. We balling now, bro.
5K for gold. It just it just hit a new high on that. What kind of grill is that? It's just a I had it custom made. I took a ounce of gold to a jeweler. I paid him to mold it. They mold your teeth. It's supposed to be like a drip. Like the gold is dripping down my teeth. It looks terrible when you put it on.
It looks like it it that's why I saying it looks like my teeth were missing. It's not It looks cooler in theory, but yeah, no diet. It's just pure gold. That's that's what that was my dumb logic 10 years ago. I was like, "Well, it's an ounce of gold." So, even if I don't want a grill, I said, "What else am I going to do with this gold?
I don't I don't have a gold chain that I wear." I was just like, "Let me put it into a grill and then that way I could wear a grill or at the very least it will hold its value." And I think it that theory remained. You know what I'm saying? I think the theory actually uh actually works cuz now if I really did want to melt this, I would think I would get at least I think I'd get at least 3k back at the at the current prices cuz you got to melt it down.
There's some copper in it, hence the the rose gold nature. But yeah, I did put an ounce of gold into it at the beginning, but gold wasn't that expensive. So yeah, that's [ __ ] hilarious, bro. What a time to be alive. And speaking of which, GLD on the high. It is pretty cringe, but back in the day it was dope.
I mean, and now it's just worth a lot. So we did it, y'all. You're buying coal. How does that What? How do we relate that? So, that's what's going to happen though. If you like try to buy jewelry for an investment, you're going to look back at it 10 years later and you're going to be like, "What the [ __ ] was I thinking?" Or or you're going to get lucky.
Cuz if gold wasn't up, I don't think I would be as excited. You know what I'm saying? I don't think I'd be like, "Yo, man. So, yeah. Shout out to the lawn term. Good hedge for the dollar debasement kind of. But that's I mean remember up until like 4 days ago gold and silver was going but you didn't have the dollar really dropping like it was.
What time is it? 10:30. Oh yeah. So [ __ ] The Fed is in like 30 minutes, bro. The Fed is in 30 minutes. NextG Neuralink three times capability to be ready this later this year says Elon. I'm kind of popping off that again. Gold is actually taking off right now. That's it. It took a high of 5,300 to get me to look for it.
Senior adviser to Supreme Leader Kamini. Talk of a limited strike by the US is an illusion. Thank you. He said, "Go Minnesota. I support the Minnesota uh the timber timber antifas habibi keep protesting. How does it feel man? I've heard people they're like the Minnesota resistance. I'm like your biggest supporter is the supreme leader of Iran.
How do you guys feel about that? That's a very I didn't know that's a cool fan to have, but I don't know if that really is what you wanted for your cause. All right. Yeah, man. Powell is going to be a little disappointing, but every time like last year there was like I think one out of three Fed meetings where Powell wasn't supposed to do anything, it got kind of exciting.
So, you never know. But I wouldn't I wouldn't really expect too much. That's kind of the the problem there. But yeah, in like 5 minutes we will begin the preview. The preview is only going to take me like 5 minutes, dude. There's really not much. So, let's see. Let me see if I could get you something else.
bright spots and dark spots happening with every monthly data release is simply hard to predict. I think the market might be exuberant and optimistic. But yeah, and their negativity about the economy, but that's not the same as like a bait and switch or a rug pull. I mean truly our economic situation is difficult to parse.
The Fed's not trying to get ahead of the situation in a way that is unwarranted by the data. So I I I understand that the market wants to make long decisions, but the Fed has to take it as it comes. Well, absolutely. And he's going to have to explain his rationale, of course, in a room full of reporters.
And I'm wondering your thoughts on what might happen after 2:30 because this is of course the first meeting in which Jay Powell stands before reporters uh since his hostage looking video around the announcement of the criminal investigation, the DOJ investigation into the Fed chair. To what extent will he need to continue sending that message that he delivered in the video today?
I would suspect that he hopes it doesn't come up at all and that the decision-m of the board of which is not solely him acting today uh speaks for itself and has the data speak for itself and not having to defend his position against political attacks. I mean, this this press conference is supposed to be about his take on the economy and what the Fed sees going for forward, you know, telegraphing stability and independence.
I I'm sure he doesn't want to talk about it. I'm sure someone will bring it up. Yeah. I mean, then there's reality. Of course, the the tenure of the Fed chair seems like fair game, and that's what of course this is all leading to. I'm I'm sure that Lisa Cook is going to come up as well. What would you ask the Fed chair today, Katherine?
I think I would I mean it depends. Is it going to be Mr. Fed chair? Is it going to be candid? I've always wanted to know what Powell thought about certain aspects of our economy. You know, just how much the pressure the labor market can take. You know, how long our estimates of monthly job growth are going to be able to be sustained in the face of population declines and what the Fed plans to do about that.
I mean, the political questions of the today are in some ways the least interesting. He's being attacked because he's independent. I don't know what he could say that would make that a more interesting conversation. I mean, the real questions about our economy are the are the big ones, the ones that we don't have the answers to.
He's under attack for no good reason. But what are we going to do if immigration does decline to the degree that it could given the crackdowns? What are we how are we going to view economic growth if all of it is coming from the health care sector? Is that really a sustainable future? How does the Fed think about those types of issues, these big picture questions about the economy?
because we focus on this press conference of this meeting of this day for this rate cut but they look 20 years in the future and we don't really ask him about that and I would want to know I would want to know about those big picture swings the ones that really have our economy on the line what a really great answer does Christopher Waller's status as a Fed chair candidate ride on his position today
I couldn't tell you I I I don't mean to sound glib but I just I don't think that Trump's appointments are that predictable uh or that transparent. You know, it's really about what they say behind closed doors of how loyal they are to him. And we can only speculate what that is. I mean, Powell was a Trump appointee and here we are.
Yes. You know, all these years later of him being the wait, what did he call I don't even care. Um calling him some name because he disagrees with him. I mean, that's there's no really predicting that. What I will say is I I I think that there are a lot of people who are going to be forced into the position of lying to the president about their independence if we are able to preserve Fed independence.
It's going to come down to someone being a very successful liar to the president in order to say, "Well, of course I'll do what you want and then I'm going to become a Fed chair and you have no control over me." That's a pretty tenuous place for a very vital aspect of our economy to be in. Yeah, that's quite a pretzel.
Katherine Edwards, will the president have to deal with the overhang of affordability for the rest of this year? Yes. Yes. It's a it's it's something that I think the Biden administration had to learn as well is that there are some bills in the economy that come due and it's not your fault. You didn't start it, but it's coming due on your watch.
We've had a solid five decades of pretty weak income growth and wage growth for the bottom third to 70% of the income distribution depending on the year. We've had very little successful foray into making housing, health care, child care or elder care more affordable for families and these things are going to stack up over time.
They're going to accumulate and get worse. There's no one or two month fix for a five decade problem. Got about a minute left. Does Jay Powell stay on the Fed board after this term ends? Has the president put him in that position or do you think he cannot wait to leave? I think he stays. I mean, I think his character would be that he would that he would stay and kind of help shepherd the next Fed president through a very delicate fight to maintain independence.
And I don't think he would walk away. I mean, he's going to have that great book deal whenever he leaves. It's in a year or four years. So I don't think I don't think he has to rush out to sign. I think that he can stay and finish the job. He strikes me as someone who has a lot of personality buried underneath a public.
All right, Chad. She was a nice lady. I like I think my favorite quote of that was the uh what did they say? The Powell hostage video. I think that one's fascinating. Powell hostage video. That was D. I wonder again a lot of people uh don't think he's going to say much today, but I think it's very odd considering that was the last time you heard from Powell.
So on that note, Chattadonia. I got a little felo for you. I know. Forgive me. Forgive forgive me for forcing a a felo upon you. I know Powell's coming out. I'm just going to give you a quick couple of words, man. And then we'll get into the preview. It's uh I I wish I I had more for you uh today, but you could you could blame the Fed chair.
Don't don't blame me, man. So, here's the deal. Uh just I'll give you two little ones, man. One has to do with your time. Okay. And it's the beginning of the year still. We've already gone through a month. And I've seen a lot in the chat. I've seen a lot in the world. I see a lot with finance. What everybody talking about, getting used to, getting stressed about, you name it.
But it's very simple, my friends. Whatever your habits are, that is how you use your time. Redemption. And I'm not No, I know your soul has been redeemed. And we could talk about your soul being redeemed and all of that. And and it's funny because that that word it means a lot. But here's the deal, my brother.
Are you ready? Very simple. Very, very simple. How you use your time is how you redeem things. Think about it. Every time you redeem something, that means it's yours, right? Are you Are you Again, you could apply that to the cross if you would like, but do you get it? Redemption is how you use your time.
Obviously, the word means more than that. But for real, bro, I I mean, why I'm telling you all this is just straight up, you guys got the rest of the year and building good habits. I mean, this is something I've always said for many, many years, bro. Small good decisions. And if you redeem your time well and you use your habits, bad habits, all they do is steal your time.
That's it. Nothing more, nothing less. uh you know they every one thing leads to another it does it goes back to the seeds bro and I'm telling you if you ever uh look at life bro it just everything is just a giant habit that's all I mean how how do we get this is all a habit you guys don't realize that the stock market live being here the markets the lawn term bro everything is literally habit so I encourage you to use your time well and that's why use it in places that are going to build you up use it in places that are going to be profitable to you profitable to your growth, your soul, you name it, bro.
That that is the the redemption of all of it. So, that's the first one. The second quick thing that I will give you is now having to do with my, you know, someone said it. They were reading Psalms and Proverbs. And I don't know, have y'all ever read Psalms? If you haven't, let me just give you a little sneak peek.
Bro, homeboy keeps it really real and he talks a lot. You know what David says a lot in Psalms? He said, "God, why have you not answered me?" You know that, you know how many times David like complains and says that in a song? You know how many songs David has written? He says, "My arms are reached out tirelessly." Imagine reaching out for God and all you get back is nothing.
Yeah, you know that happens, right? But if you actually go read the Psalms, he tells you the answer every time. It's actually funny. So, I'll tell you the answer right now, bro. You know what you do? And I don't know if you ever feel empty. If you feel whether empty, if you maybe you don't believe in God, that's fine.
But if you feel you believe and you believe God, you're like, I don't know, he ain't hear me. This is what you should do. You should go look back at your life and thank him for everything he has ever done. And I'm telling you, put your mind towards that gratitude. I talked about it early this year, bro.
I'm I'm very very grateful for many things. But anytime, bro, whether it's I, you know, I've learned to do this in good and bad, but that truly is the answer. He doesn't, you know, he don't complain about God and say I don't have an answer and not give you an answer. The answer is very simple, bro. Like, for real.
Oh, it's not I mean, it's it's it's one step above praise God, bro. It's like straight up really think about how far you have came. I mean, look, I just found a grill, bro, 10 years ago, and it's it's a it's crazy to think how how far in just what I thought was certain things and how far that has changed.
Bro, I'm I'm grateful for all the days of my youth, what I what I learned in elementary school, what I learned both in good and bad, what I've learned through people. Like, go back, bro. Go back and you'll realize. So you may get bogged down by what you don't see right now or today or who knows maybe you feel like uh don't don't let your soul faint as David would say.
Uh but very simply man just don't ever forget what God has already done. And that right there is a answer. It's not this ain't no cliche. I promise you this is this is like a answer of mind answer of thought. Go backwards and then you'll go forward. If you really don't believe me, you feel like you don't see a path, you don't know any of that, bro.
just telling you go backwards and be thankful of how far you've came. Every bullet that you have dodged and I I think you would be surprised and then you might get a little hope and you might wire that thing in your your brain. You guys know belief in and hope and all that. It's like it's a brain function.
I don't know if you knew that but it it messes with you in a good way. So yeah, man. Just don't forget how far you've came. And that's that's what he says. And you know, it's easy to remember the silence. It's easy to remember the times it feels like nobody understood, but go back. Go back and realize how far how each every single step, bro.
Again, you've dodged many bullets. I I hope you realize that, Neo. I hope you realize that. So, that being said, that's all I have for you. That is my mini fileo. That is my mini quick fileo. I I don't think it was too abrasive for any of you. So, I do hope that you can enjoy it. And now I got good news, bad news.
I'm telling you, I have a Fed preview. Uh, but I don't want to let any of you down too much because I really don't have much for you. Uh, I'm telling you. So, realistically, the Powell video last time, that is the only element of potential hawkishness, but that is only going to boil down to the whole Fed debate of Fed independence.
Remember, Fed independence will unleash the whole sell America trade. you name it. Right? So that's the only element people are looking for today to be hawkish. But whether you agree with it or not, what has happened in the last couple of months, inflation has not gone higher. Even after the data releases and the shutdown, nothing has got worse.
GDP actual estimates as well as the actual results have only gotten up. The jobs market, continuing claims, initial claims, non-farmms, you name it. None of that has gotten worse. You're still in this low higher low fire environment, but it did not weaken as abruptly as some people would have thought, especially if you were cutting rates not too long ago.
So, I hope you guys are getting it. All of this means the economy has actually gotten better uh or it's at least way better than the last statement perceived. So, this is very important because essentially, if you're not picking up on it by now, what this means is that your statement today is probably going to read more bullish.
So, that's going to be the the only thing people are expecting today. Uh, and that's where, you know, some people even believe Powell, besides the uh besides the hostage video, I just like saying that now. Hostage video is kind of fun to say, uh, because it's how it all played out. But besides the hostage video, that that's the only thing that might surprise uh what's going to happen with that uh in terms of being, you know, more bearish or hawkish.
But other than that, everything is actually going to probably be dovish. More people are leaning towards a dovish Powell, barring the whole Fed independence discussion, what Powell is going to do. Not to mention, we love Powell. Got a lot of respect for the guy, but remember his term is coming very, very close to expiring.
He could stay on the Fed, maybe be a voter, but he's not going to be the Fed chair anymore. And that with that comes the fact that a lot of his potency as Fed chair today, uh, it's it's not going to transfer over in the same way. So yeah, I mean, if you are thinking nothing burger today, I would put that in consensus.
The consensus, I would, like I said, it's about 90% chance nothing happens. Now, like I said earlier, last year, uh, anytime there was these meetings where we expected nothing, I'd say one out of every three, you got a little bit more excitement than you bargain for. So, that could still be in the cards, but I just I wouldn't expect much.
That's why I will be here with you today. If anything does happen and happens abruptly, I will let you know and we will be able to pretty much respond to that quite quite quickly. So, that being said, here is your only piece of information today that I have for you. And this is an expected strike through statement of what to expect.
And this should explain to you really the reality of the situation. I just explained it to you, but you don't have to take my word for it. I mean, this has all been reflected through the data over the last couple of months. So, this is from Morgan Stanley. A couple of banks have different expectations, but the some expect different words, but most of them, the big three banks, uh, anybody who's covering this, they they do expect that the statement is going to be the one that's going to be there.
No, I don't think you will get a surprise cut unless Powell wants to vote for Trump. Uh, but I doubt I doubt that. I really strongly would doubt that. So, here it is. Available indicators suggest their economic activity has been expanding at a last time they said moderate remember they were a little worried people were getting worried in the end of the year if you guys recall that has changed they're going to expected to change that to solid pace i.e E people are expect this is the dovish part of it.
So right when the statement comes out the the algos might actually take it bullish for a little bit. I don't know how bullish though I don't I don't think the expectations today. I don't think you have a scenario uh that prices in more than like 1 and a half%. But essentially it's going to say solid pace job gains instead of slow this year.
They're going to take it around. But this is the part some people think they might remove slow and change it with something more stable. Morgan Stanley believes it'll be the same and they're going to say unemployment rate has edged up. That's what it said last time, but this is also the other way to to signal that stability.
They're going to say but remains low. IBM going up. Uh but yeah, so that right there again solid pace of jobs. Unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. That is going to be a nod towards the labor market not getting any worse in the last couple of months. So then they're going to say more recent indicators consistent with these developments.
Inflation has moved up since earlier of the year and remains somewhat elevated. This part again, if they give a nod to the jobs, the other part is going to be how they regard inflation. Although inflation went down. If they really want it to be dovish, they're going to change this one. But some people are saying that you could pretty much nod towards the jobs and then keep the inflation the same and you'll be fine.
But that's the first one. And then they're going to remove the judges downside risk to employment, play the dual mandate card, but not give you one of those optionality statements uh that gives yes or no. Cuz here's the thing you got to realize though with all of this. I mean, what are you guys expecting this year?
You got to really think about it that just cuz this statement is optionality and again when they bring up the dual mandate, but the thing about it is that most people are expecting rate cuts this year, but now this is the hawkish part. You're not expecting it anytime soon. You're not getting it today.
You might not even get it to March. So depending on whether or not this gets removed. If they take that out and they kind of buy more time, that's going to be hinting at rate cuts later rather than sooner. But you're going to get that. Then they're going to decide that they said that then they're going to say they decided to maintain.
All of this is normal. And then the last part, uh they're not going to talk about the QE. Uh that's the thing I think you should pay attention towards during the press conference. the QE again, the whole quantitative tightening, what they plan to do with that. I think you're going to get a question on it cuz people have implied that that is like a baby QE that's kind of going on.
So, we'll see how that one all plays out. And then you're going to get a different set of voters cuz it is a new year. I hope you guys are aware of that. So, some of these names are going to change. Uh and then we're going to see if we actually uh get the uh descents. And believe it or not, people are expecting that Mr.
[ __ ] is going to descent again. and argue that he wanted a half a point or a quarter. They should have changed. It should be a quarter point, not a half a point, but who knows? So, you're going to get some of that stuff and then we will see where that all plays out. But that's pretty much it. But what you really got to walk away from is understanding how the economy has developed.
Uh based on the data and based on what has happened, the economy has gotten more favorable than what we've seen at the last Fed meeting. You know, things have not gotten bad. You know, things are pretty decent. So it's not again the jobs stopped dying out of nowhere. People got worried about that end of last year inflation you again especially at the beginning of the year you could have saw inflation go go up but it didn't.
So that's kind of the idea there. And then now the fact that jobs are still good economy is doing fine. I mean these are all it's you could argue this is what Powell wanted. I mean they're not having to worry about inflation. uh they still could worry about it in the future. More time has gone on the economy not putting them in there.
I mean you might get questions on financial conditions and everything else but when it's all said and done this isn't uh it's it could support the pause which which you are going to get today. you are going to get a pause. And that's the other thing because this is what I've been talking about and I said it last time at the last meeting uh in October uh both in October and uh uh leading into the beginning of the year because do you guys I hope you are all aware of this.
You are at a very unique spot. This is this is our current rate cutting cycle. This is the mortgage rates. This is the Fed funds rate. You know we started dropping before the election. People were anticipating a rate cut. you got it and then you got a double cut and they kept cutting away and we were feeling good in the 24 and then they stopped but then the bonds and mortgage rates did not go down and that doesn't happen.
You've only had that happen once in history uh 2008 where you got the front run a little bit then they start cutting rates but then mortgage rates stay up. That's what happened in 2008. And a lot of this is doubt. Again back in 2008 they doubted the mortgage back securities. they doubted a lot of things as to why even though the Fed was cutting, why per se they they didn't really want to uh participate too hard on it.
So that's kind of the issue here and this is where I'm saying like you are in a very unique cycle. So that's why it's like this meeting they may not move it down and that could buy them some time but even in 2008 they they had what maybe 3 months of not moving. So we had about 10 months of not moving and then now we might start that again after moving again.
So you might buy another 3 months and then we see how that plays. But for now economy nothing changed abruptly. Things are better than the last time which you know get got you a reluctant cut out of Powell. So this time I mean a lot of signs point towards the pause but we're going to see. And then really when it comes to the press conference you just want to see about the future path.
uh which I don't think Powell, not only is he the lame duck Powell that we've talked about, but he might be a little hardressed to to give you a little bit more information on that. So, we will see my friends. We will see. So, other than that, do you have any questions? Uh they didn't rename the QE.
I mean, they're pretty much it's the end of quantitative tightening, which kind of brings back the QE. So, the fact that they're not tightening up and that they're going to roll over the balances now to mortgage back securities, it should ease up on bonds. And then the other side of that coin is that you have the treasurer, literally Mr.
Bessant, he is also buying back some bonds as well. Not to mention Fanny and Freddy bought back. So, it's the Fed kind of easing up those conditions. And they might ask him this question. They might ask him how it's not QE. They asked him last time and he just said it's part of a normal plan and they've been doing it slow and adjusted as they intended.
I would watch out too. We'll see cuz again the Fed made those comments towards the rate check. Bessant said stuff about the yen and the dollar today and given how the dollar moved that's probably going to be important but I I doubt Powell is going to give you an answer on that. But really the main questions if there is going to be anything surprising it will be regarding the path forward.
Remember we all expect rate cuts this year. just most people expect it after you get a new Fed chair and more clarity on how that's going to play out. So if Powell is willing to to give you information on that that that could play a little bit too. So V will see my friends skipping felo. Oh, we just had it.
We had a little mini felo right before this. Oh, so you missed it. But other than that, I don't have a I don't have another Felo for you. So yeah, we just went through the baby Fed preview again. You're going to get the Fed independence question. Uh again, a lot of Fed commentary, too. Uh if you think about it, you've had a lot of Fed members go back and forth today.
Or not today, just over the last month. Uh remember, actually, would you guys like a pop quiz? How many of you remember what happened? What was one notable Fed commentary? Not from Jerome Powell, but one notable Fed commentary that occurred. Do any of you remember? I don't know if you guys could recall.
You kind I think you had Powell after that though. You don't remember? No, it was John Williams. You guys remember it was around he did it before the last meeting, but remember we were dying and then John Williams came in and was like, "You know what? I think things are actually chill and they started toning things down." So again, you you've had a ever since then the Fed kind of shut their mouth, but a lot of them have been playing the back and forth game with the politics.
A lot of them have made comments on the uh what's it called excuse me they've made comments on the uh oh excuse me they made comments on the uh Fed independent stuff ever since all in defense of Powell but other than that they've kind of chilled out since the meantime but yeah that was a notable one in the last even though it covered the other meeting you could argue that was probably one of your bigger you know pay attention to the other Fed members.
uh there is the dot plot but and that you know that might get brought up they're going to ask about those questions but remember in March you are going to get uh another dot plot and that will be a little bit more active and then the reality is just from this is what I'm saying here from the last dot plot till today a lot has changed in the economy that last dot plot they cut but think the last dot plot was in October I believe so people were were a lot more concerned about what was going to happen actually no you had the last one in December But uh people were that was the data from October, November and then you had the uh the government shutdown.
So people were a lot more concerned about oh my god remember that's even when Oracle started happening and people were getting worried about all these little bubble concerns not to mention the economy what's going to happen but a lot of that has faded and just a lot of the data we've made it to this year you got a lot of stimulus to run it hot jobs has only gotten better inflation is chilling and again this isn't an opinion this is uh kind of objectively what we have already encountered here so that is where we are at uh what else is is there.
Again, you're going to get Fed independence and then yeah, you just want to know the path ahead. So again, right now people are I think the lowest estimate right now is about one rate cut for the rest of the year. That would probably be the more hawkish one. Anything implying more than one rate cut will be a little bit more dovish.
And then by December, we were talking about three rate cuts for the year. But now, ever since the drama and all of that, that that might get thrown into doubt. But the bigger the change on the rate cut odds for the future again market is you know they've kept it in their pants. Everyone could kind of tolerate that you might not get an answer for the next meeting or two that's acceptable but people really want to know by the end of the year because that's going to encounter a term without Powell.
So if you start to again if Powell starts hinting and the questions answering kind of all point to less than one rate cut or one rate cut only for this year I think that'll be a little bit more hawkish. Again watch the bonds out. But again in all of these I'm just telling you how things could play out.
But none of none of these things are expected to happen. Uh but understanding how many rate cuts are priced in uh to uh to the end of the year that's the important part. And then yeah they're going to ask his role. They might ask him a question on uh Rick Reer or Kevin Hasset, but I think Powell is going to try to dodge it again.
Then I just don't know. I think the wild card for today is Powell's uh hostage video, the X Factor, cuz I just don't know how he's going to respond. I don't know if he's going to come out swinging. I don't know if he's going to try to ignore it. I don't know if he's going to use that as an opportunity to answer questions about the topic.
So, yeah, it could it could go it could go a couple of different ways. But yeah, upgrade in growth, less downside risk on employment and dovish hold. But other than that, if they do change, if they do want to panic on inflation, that'll be all surprising. So, we have the little readout. We will see where it goes from here.
But I think we'll have a good idea. I think we'll have a good idea. I'm in a cop. All right. Any other questions? Usually they don't cut once. Yes. That's that's the sad part about this. I guess you got two cuts in a row last time. So, you know, we had the we had the October cut and then we had the December cut.
But that's why it's like the way the the data was a lot more cutw worthy I guess you know things are getting a little worse but they are starting to pin it now. So yeah remember leading into October we had the cut and then you had the other cut there too. That's why I'm saying it's like it's been a 100 basis points of cutting since this all started uh before the election.
So it's it's a massive amount. That's why I'm telling you historically you could compare it. you've never really seen this big of a move that kind of has led to it. So stopping abruptly, I mean it it's not really typical of the Fed, but that's that goes back to the whole trust, credibility, and kind of how Powell is dealing with it.
But again, a lot of you have asked too, you know, what's what's the point of cutting if we're running it hot? What's the point of cutting if if the economy seems to be doing great? These are all valid questions. So, that's where we we kind of get into this this drama. And I'm sure Powell's going to try to try to use some of that to to explain it.
Oh yeah, man. We only got four minutes remaining. Chattonia. Oh my goodness. Are you ready? Are you ready for the FOMC? So, like I'm saying, if all all expectations I've shared with you so far, uh, in about 5 minutes, 4 minutes when this comes out, uh, we are going to be expecting that it'll it'll probably have a slight dovish read.
However, if that statement comes out not as expected and it comes out a little different and it doesn't acknowledge the economy, if it says the labor market, if they are kind of still expecting a rapid deterioration, if it starts to say inflation's high, all all of those things will be bad and then the market might take it a little bit hawkish.
But for now though, although we like Powell, I do think this is going to be a dud. So get ready for it. But you got three minutes. Again, any questions, let me know. Schwab joint statement may have some adjustment to inflation. And then Congress must reauthorize national quantum initiative. That's what Nvidia says.
That's coming out now. Sockgen, the market seems to be pushing back on the timing of the next easing. Am I particularly bullish on specific industries if they cut? Uh just the same ones. I mean, that's the beauty of all this, you've kind of already seen it. Uh, you know, that's why I think a run it hot theme and then some of the stuff we saw last year.
I mean, remember this this rate cut is not new. That's why I was saying even from October when we got those last two cuts there, just remember none of this is new. This is all going back from October. You have lived through a through a year of of rates going down. Yes, you are still on a delay. So, the data should come out.
Uh probably by the time you get it though, it takes the same amount to circulate. But and then I should have a little bit of a jump on the power one. But yes, the locked in is not on a delay. We turn the FOMC into a truck. I don't know. That's what I'm very like I'm telling you cuz like the last time we heard from Powell, it was very dramatic.
Uh so you know with that type of energy I would think he's g he's ready to come out swinging but most people are not expecting that. So in a weird way if you think Powell is going to be dramatic and like punchy towards the Fed independence that's not a base case but I do believe that that is more I just you don't see that too often.
But then again they w remember the market brushed it off. They ignored it. That one lady what was her name? Marjorie uh didn't or yeah Marjorie didn't she say that was her? It wasn't Trump. Trump denied it. He said it was that one lady and she just said that Powell hasn't responded. So we'll see. Hawkish better for medals.
No. Uh cuz if hawkish if he's you know hawkish means tighter conditions. Uh it it would depend on the dollar. So I would really look today cuz the medals have responded. But if he is more hawkish and that gets the dollar up, I would watch uh I would watch the uh gold and silver. All right, man. 20 seconds, a little less.
Get ready. Game time. So, it'll come out here in a second. Let me get it. I'm going to keep this up and then go to the Fedreserve.gov. Oh, there it is. Show signs of stabilization. No way. So, yeah, they literally use the word stabilization. All right, it's out. Uh, give me the What the [ __ ] Says page not found.
solid pace. So, that one was correct. Job gains have remained low. So yeah, but remains low. They even took they didn't even say slow and employment rate has shown signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. So pretty dovish. It's about there. Honestly, I think the the job they see they seem way more bullish on the jobs.
And then inflation, you didn't get the uh olive branch on inflation. That's still the same. They see they took out the QT. They didn't mention that. And then voting against was [ __ ] and Waller who preferred lowering by a quarter point. That's what I was telling you. Not a half a point. So yeah, this pretty much was in line.
Again, they just took out, bro, they they took out that whole paragraph. No, they still a committee seeks to remain 2%. But yeah, they took out the back end of it. They So they did remove the judge's downside risk to unemployment. So yeah, slightly more dovish. Dovish on jobs, inflation the same, took out the optionality that going to make you a little bit more uh a little bit more patient towards what's going to happen next, unfortunately.
So, the statement doesn't really it's not too confidence inspiring about the path forward with rates. And then again, if the jobs are good, that's bullish for the economy, but not necessarily bullish if you want rate cuts. But yeah, they did not they did not adjust the rates. So yeah, Waller and [ __ ] wanted 25 basis points, but they chose not to cut the rates.
So again, you had cuts at the last ones, and now you have your pause. Once again, you have your pause. Let's see. Yeah. So you had October, December cut, and now you're pausing after two. All of it's expected, but again, I think maybe the the economy is good, but that like I said, it's going to be a little bit more hawkish there.
I think they didn't adjust inflation and then both of them kind of uh both segments of it just really addressed that, you know, they seem very confident in the jobs. So for now, it just this doesn't give you a path forward on rates. And then they were down to pause after after a double cut. So get ready for the press conference.
But that first reaction is is uh negative. Even though you kind of got the uh dove towards the economy, but I think more people wanted the rate cuts. Where's the Russell actually? And then look, dollar went up. So that's going to be your other reaction. And maybe watch the Russell, but I think it's going to be smaller like this till he gets on, unfortunately.
I'm in a co. Yeah. Literally nothing, dude. They were really con. So that's the thing. I think that's the biggest surprise cuz you guys have seen the data. Like I said, it's objective. This isn't an opinion. It's it's literally a fact of like, you know, jobs chilled out from the last two cut meetings.
Not enough to to be really confident, but that statement reads like they're confident. And then again, they got rid of the optionality. That's what I was telling you there. the fact that they're not playing this dual mandate game and we, you know, kind of setting up for the next move that all of this is kind of implying that you're at least another month or two away from another rate cut.
Cuz again, once they pause, that's the weird part. Once they start, they keep cutting. They cut in October, cut again in December. Now they're stopping. But then it's like they took out, you know, that means the next time they're going to have to start hinting at it or you're going to need the jobs data to really deteriorate.
And then with the inflation, if they were willing to change the economy and jobs, again, they said the economy was solid and stabilized. That's the other big one. I think the stabilization, remember, we were just saying they were going to say the economy slowed and then hint at it. But yeah, they they said it stabilized and then they started talking up the jobs market.
That means you're not going to you might not get this rate cut talk or they're setting out the the theme that you won't get the rate cut talk until the economy actually starts to trip out again. I know, man. If only there was an election coming up, then we could have got a rate cut. But yeah, I think the market didn't like that at first, but they're just bullish on the jobs.
And again, that was kind of they they're acknowledging the fact of the data, but that might be what they were setting up as the that might be your new pylon. That might be the new goal marker. Uh that again jobs, jobs, jobs, economy stabilized. I mean I think most people can expect that the economy is going to keep going up here for 2026 at least with weaker dollar and run it hot theme.
But yeah, they are uh I think the market is going to is starting to put two and two together here about what the Fed is going to set up as their target and it might be that rapid deterioration of the jobs and now that that disappeared. So, the last time October, December, you had it, but now now you do not.
Uh, yeah, be on the lookout. Trump might make some comments again. You already had him in the morning. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised. We don't need rate cuts. I I would agree with you. I think we just need the long end of the bond curve to to come down. That's that's it. So like, but that's kind of the problem is that we don't need the rate cuts per se, but you know, I don't think rates should be higher than 2022 on the long end after cutting 100 basis points.
So that that's that chart I keep showing everybody cuz that's very unique. You don't it's been a year. We're still we're staying at 100 basis points of cuts, but the fact that rates are higher than a banking crisis, higher than a long than a 9% inflation, that's kind of the part that's like you don't need to necessarily cut rates.
I would I would argue if you didn't move rates at all and the Fed could calmly signal uh you know the reality of the situation and get the long end back to an appropriate level that you don't need to cut ever again. uh and you could balance it out a little bit better. But the the oddity is that we don't need a rate cut.
They've already cut rates even as recently as December. But now again, your your long end and the stuff that really affects more aggregate demand. That is still pressuring people uh and still pressuring the rates when theoretically you could you could argue it could at least go down 50 more basis points.
So yeah, that's kind of uh how I view it. Yeah, watch the dollar for the rest of the day in gold and silver, but I don't think we're going to get a play out of this, you guys. I I hate to break it to you. Yeah, nothing's moving too crazy. Yeah, just the macro data got a lot better. So markets are even the same sort of uh in a weird way now market expectations are similar to the Fed.
So that last dot plot, but then again that was the dot plot after after you had two cuts. Yeah, they really leaned. They really they It's so crazy because when the labor I mean to give Powell credit when the labor market a couple months ago is weakening, he did say it could deteriorate quickly, but they're they seem pretty confident in it again.
No cut till June. That's about right. That's why I was saying that removal of the optionality statement. I think that that makes it that pushes things out a little bit more. So now your your only hope of a of a cut that might let me put it this way depending on what Powell says but after reading that statement that might be the LA December might have been your last cut of Powell's career cuz that's what that's kind of what this is implying that you know again we're still expecting at least one more cut that'd be the minimum of the market in the dot plot but towards the end of the year but I think he's you know again as if labor's up economy stabilized He's still going to be worried about inflation.
Uh, you know, it was uh that's that's it. That December and October were the last cuts of Powell and I think that that's what June says. So, we'll see. But market's right back to the level that we came at when this came out. So, we will see. Dollar had a everything just very slightly. Do I think we need more cuts?
No. Just like I said, I don't think uh I don't think you need cuts. I think you need the long end of the yield curve to come down. I think longer term interest rates should be a lot lower. Uh because we've already cut. So, you've already gotten the cut. Let me It'd be like It would be like going to the barber, waiting there for 3 hours, and then I come back home and my hair is not cut.
I I don't know how to describe it. What's another example? It would It would be like taking Ozmpic and getting fatter. That's the better example. How about that? That would be like being on Ozmpic for 12 months and I weigh the exact same. So you' be like, Josh, do should I take more OMPIC? No, you should stop eating.
That's what I think should happen. Or something something need you already took the stim you took the pill already. That's the craziest part about this. Over the last 12 months, we have taken the ompic pill of rate cuts. You've already cut a hundred basis points in the last 12 months. So, the you've already got your rate cut.
It just needs to the long end needs to come down. But that's why, you know, that's why again Powell flip-flopping drama with the media, Trump, all of this other stuff, the big beautiful bill, mass spending, you name it. It's, you know, it's not only Powell's fault. It's kind of everybody's fault. You know, I think the the step parents are fighting.
Powell fights with Trump. Trump fights with Powell. Media disregards anything good. Highlights the drama. Freak you out about tariff inflation for 12 months. It's created this environment where you have already got your damn rate cuts, but now the long end is higher. And literally that's only happened one other time.
But the one other time that it happened was after a [ __ ] collapse in Lehman Brothers and there was a reason to doubt the long end of the curve. A real objective reason in the market. So unfortunately I don't that's why that's why it's a weird game to play. It's like I don't think you need to cut more rates, but I do think the long end needs to do what has already happened or at least half of it.
Go bring the long end down by half a basis, half a percent, you'll be fine. Uh but again, if the long end could adjust more naturally, like I'm saying, I do not think that the long end of the curve, I think the market was more uncertain and bad policy, bad spending, everything. Again, I didn't trust yelling as much.
I think that was a lot worse after bank collapses and yelling than it is right now. Uh especially when when you're on a path to like crazy crazy growth right now. So yeah. Well, yeah, the cuts didn't work. But that's why I'm saying I kind of blame everybody. I blame Powell. I blame the Trump. I blame the liberals.
I blame Bloomberg. I blame all of the people who kind of uh it's like people wanted people really went out of their way to to bring That's why I said it's kind of a [ __ ] up game. Maybe they just don't want people to frontr run, but it's it's been riddled with a lot of doubt. A lot of doubt and mistrust.
And why do I say that? Because the last time you had doubt and mistrust that manifested in the exact same way, it was 2008. But there was a real reason to have doubt and mistrust. It was because of the mortgage back securities. It was because of the the economic situation at play. It was actually terrible.
So that's why it's like this time around it's playing almost exactly the same. But this this has been manufactured. Even that's what I said last year. You know, again, the whole freak out about tariffs. Be afraid. I I believe a lot of that was manufactured because otherwise we wouldn't see the Fed talk about e economy stabilization and jobs market.
you wouldn't be here a year later with four 4 and a.5% GDP growth and then with prices and true real-time inflation at like 1.8 that just that that was manufactured. So unfortunately, yeah, it's uh I I blame everybody cuz it didn't work. And that's why it's like if kind of we had more if we could all just where is the love?
Where is the love? If we had more cohesion or more objectivity in uh in terms of the what's happened in the economy, I I think we would have done a lot better. Do we got a video? Let me see. I'm going to get some feeds up. Where is Jerome? Home. Where is Jerome? Oh, no way. I'm trying to get you the faster feeds.
There's a couple people who have it live in there already, but I can't tell if they're uh the real ones. We'll see if this one actually hits. Let's see which one's faster. I can't tell. Wait, this guy's already sat down. This one might be ahead. I can't tell. They keep walking in front. These are the two fastest ones for now.
I got it. I think this one's faster. This one. And spy going down a little bit more. I'm looking at this Baldi, but I can't tell. Okay, wait. She might be the tell. Oh, yeah. This one's ahead then. Okay, that one's This one's faster. I have two other feeds up, but we'll see when they get up there. This usually is not the fastest feed.
That's the crazy part. Circle on the White House news. Yeah, they say they're gathering uh banking executives meeting to focus on ability of crypto. Take a look. Coinbase and Circle. That was a couple minutes ago. That was like eight minutes ago. Time. We got Pal in 10 minutes. Okay. All right. York.
That's true. All right, compare these ones. I still think this one's the fastest. Oh [ __ ] No, this one's faster by a lot. All right, this one's a little quieter. Again, those crypto names are going. Okay, we got nine minutes. Oh. Oh [ __ ] Steve Leeman. All right, we got a bell. Okay, this one's faster.
Yeah. Great. Hello. All right, guys. You guys should still be pretty quick here, even with the delay. Some of these are like 30 minutes 30 seconds behind. All right, I'm going to go pee real Quick 5 minutes. This should be the fastest feed though. I've gone through a bunch. Even with your delay, I think you guys will be surprised.
You will be surprised. White House posted a 7,000 picture on Twitter. Good for them. Good for them. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. Now ladies. Yeah, man. Keep an eye on silver and the dollar. I haven't left yet. Setting it all up. WhatsApp will now charge AI bots in Italy.
Damn, bro. So, Meta trying to get in on that API game. That's part of the Cloudbot [ __ ] Hi, everyone. So, remember that was the big update. conference begins. When the news begins, the chair will make a brief opening statement and Michelle Smith will be standing over. I'll be back. Which is your favorite child?
Yes. Somebody Yes. Right. No, the WhatsApp thing is a new development. So like with Claudebot, not all of them can do that. Like the whole communicate through WhatsApp with the bot, that's not a common thing. That's a that's a new thing. But yeah, I don't know. I might turn off the uh background music cuz the re the fast feed this [ __ ] is uh two-minute warning.
The fast feed is very quiet. So yeah, man. Oh yeah. How did Net react to that? I put bet a little bit. They got the premiums didn't get killed too hard on that surprisingly though. All right. She is I'm gonna keep up gold. I want to keep up silver, but gold has been the one that's been more responsive today.
And then again, uranium stuff is still going. And then, yeah, I'm going to have to uh so quiet, bro. So, yeah, when power comes on, I'm going to turn off the meditation music and I'm going to crank up the volume. So, mute your speakers. What's up? Low ticker is K. Uh oh. Check if Trump said something.
You're moving pretty big right now. And that's again he doesn't come on yet. We were expecting something some shenanigans. Well, I don't see anything out of Trump. Bro, you just dumped literally nothing. Oh [ __ ] I got one. Good afternoon. Good afternoon. Uh . The US economy expanded at a solid pace last year and is coming into 2026 on a firm footing.
Firm footing. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization and inflation remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. Having lowered our policy rate by 75 basis points over the course of our previous meetings have remained low.
We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward both our maximum employment and 2% inflation goals. I w so far. Economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Consumer spending has been resilient and business fixed investment has remained weak. A temporary shutdown of the federal government likely weighed on economic activity last quarter, but these effects should be reversed as the reopening boosts growth this quarter.
The real move is going to happen with the dollar that conditions may be stabilizing after a period of gradual softening. The unemployment rate was all of these little pump fantas. Wait till the dollar moves. If he's going to say anything have remained low, but the presser should bring all of the ed at an average pace of 22,000 per month over the last 3 months.
Excluding government employment, private payrolls rose at an average pace of 29,000 per month. A good part of the slowing in the pace of job growth over the past year . Other indicators, including openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, show little change in recent months. Inflation has eased significantly from its our 2% longerrun goal.
Estimates based on the consumer price index indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.9% over the 12 months ending in December and that rose 3.0%. These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the sector which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs. In contingu sector, declined from last year's peaks as reflected in both market and surveybased measures.
Mos maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3 and a half to 3 and 3/4%. Since last September, we've lowered our policy rate 75 basis points or 3/4 of a percentage point, bringing it within a range of plausible estimates of neutral. This %. Once the effects of tariff increases have passed through, rate based on the incoming data.
At least said when it passes through. He's he sounds more confident. They're going to ask him a question on that. Monetary policy is not on a preset course and we will make our decisions on a meeting bymeating basis. . Is he about to change the community sustainably bout your commitment to communities?
at the Fed will continue to do our jobs with objectivity, integrity, and a deep commitment to serve. Yeah, that's that's new, bro. Thank you. That was his shot towards the video. That was very different. He does not end like that. We will continue to do it with objectivity. Chris Rugabber at Associated Press.
Thank you. Um I wanted to ask that you know you attended the Supreme Court uh hearing last week on the Lisa Cook case that as political. Can you say why you attended and uh what you would say in response to the secretary's criticism? So let me start with I I don't respond to comments by other officials whoever they may be.
It's just uh not appropriate to do that. I will tell you why I attended. Um I would say that that case is crazy. First question is not even about the economy legal case in a 13year history. And I as I thought about it, I thought uh it would might be hard to explain why I didn't attend. Uh in addition, um Paul Vulker went to a Supreme Court case famously and I guess 1985 or so.
So, it's precedented and uh I thought it was an appropriate thing and I did it. Just quickly follow on to explain whether he went or not. You mentioned last month that I'll give you the household survey might be distorted. Um and you also mentioned the potential for uh I'll give him that jobs. Uh which would suggest that we're still in a negative hiring pace.
Um, so do you if he didn't show up, they would have asked and uh I'm just what's the basis for saying that things have stabilized? Thank you. Question. So yeah, really two questions. One is so we're we're getting through the the distortions in the data from the shutdown. What however big they were in November, they're smaller in December.
So we're getting to a place where they're no longer material. They're still there, but it's a tweak here and there. Um the reason why we why we changed the uh statement, let me pull it out. Um u was was simply uh we it's it used to say that judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.
So we saw you know data coming in which suggests some signs of stabilization. I wouldn't go too far with that but some signs of stabilization. There also some signs of continued cooling and uh so we thought that was no longer an accurate description of the data. In addition, the outlook for economic activity has improved to clearly improved since the last meeting and that should matter for for labor demand and for employment over time.
So for those two reasons, we thought we would take that language out of the statement. We said the data change, but feel the same on the economy. Bonds reacted more to that than any Wall Street Journal. Uh, Chair Pal, you've generally avoided engaging with political controversies directly. The video statement on January 11th was a departure.
What made this different? And are you concerned it could draw the institution further into political debates? So, today on uh uh I'm simply going to refer you to the statement that I made on January 11. I'm not going to expand on it or repeat it. He's not going to talk about it. He's pulling the punches.
This is really about the press conference and and and uh the economy and what we did today, but and some ancillary areas, but I'm not going to be getting into that. Can you say whether the Fed has responded to the subpoenas? I have nothing for you on that today. Damn, Mike. All right, pow pow. I can respect that, too.
Michael McKe from Bloomberg Radio TV. Have you made a decision on whether you would remain as a governor of the Federal Reserve? If so, top three question. Can you tell us what it is and when might we anticipate a decision? Uh, no. And uh, I really once again have nothing for you on that today. Yeah, bro.
That either. Uh, why why would you uh want to leave at all under the circumstance? [ __ ] ask him about inflation. I uh I don't want to get into that's not something I'm there's a time and place for these questions and and uh but not not something I'm going to be getting into today. Thank you. Thank you.
Um CLA Jones, Financial Times. Thanks a lot for for taking my questions. Um in another one that might, you know, lead to a similar answer, um we've seen quite big movements in the dollar over recent days. What do you think is driving the US currency lower? And have you been at all concerned just by the extent of the volatility we've seen this week?
Thank you. So Claire, as you probably know, you know, we we don't comment on the dollar really. The administration, especially the Treasury Department, has the job of oversight over over the the currency and so and exchange rates and all that. We don't comment on that. It's not our not our role. Um so I have nothing for you.
But I mean, what's your view on the market movements? I mean, what do you think behind them? Is it asset managers diversifying? Is it? Yeah. I just don't, you know, we don't we don't talk about the dollar. We don't talk about what moves it around. Um I it's just it's just not appropriate for us to do so.
Really, the Treasury Department has that. It's their their role, their Bailey Wick, and and we stay off it. We do monetary policy and some other things, but we don't we don't comment on the dollar. Sorry. Neil dollar went down on that. Hi, Chair Pal. Neil with Axios. Um, obviously no SEP in this meeting, but in light of the slight firming up of the language around growth in the labor market in the statement, should we assume that the timeline for any further rate cuts is push back compared to what people might have thought in December?
Well, first of all, if if you look at the incoming data since the last meeting, um clear improvement in the outlook for growth. The the data have come in and sentiment, the the beige book, everything comes in suggesting that this year starts off on a on a solid footing for for growth. Uh inflation performed about as expected and as I mentioned, some of the labor market data came in suggesting u you know, we're evidence of stabilization.
So it's overall a stronger forecast it really if that's your question. Um I'm not sure I answered your question. Uh but but in terms of uh timing or pacing of any additional easing. So we we haven't made um you know what what we what we'd say about this was that answer rate cuts. We're well positioned to address the risks that we face on face on both sides mandate and we'll continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on the incoming data implications for and the implications for and the outlook and the balance of risks.
Haven't made any decisions about future meetings but you know the economy is growing at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has been broadly stable and inflation remains somewhat elevated. So we'll be looking to our variables and letting the data light the way for us. Steve Steve Leeman, CNBC. And sticking with questions you might answer.
Thank you. Um, uh, you had previously, I believe, described the current policy rate being at the higher end of neutral. And if you look at the longer run, the SCP and the longer run rate, 16 of 19 officials are actually below there on their long run. Is the Fed still in a process of bringing it down towards a middle range of neutral?
And what would it take to get there? So I the count I did was that four of the 19 were at or above that. Maybe I missed by one, but I thought I thought it was four. Um and if you look at the um the dealer survey, it was 10 out of 58 where we're at or above. So you're right. It's it's it's the high higher end of the range.
What we say is it's it's within the range of plausible estimates. This is this is the higher end of that range, but it's in so for some people they think it's it's neutral. I think and many of my colleagues think it's hard to look at the incoming data and say that policyy's significantly restrictive at this time.
It may be it may be sort of loosely neutral or it may be somewhat restrictive. You know, it's in the eye of the beholder and of course no one knows with any precision. Um so is that you had a follow up? I get what you're saying, but um are are some officials have described the Fed being in a a mode of bringing it down eventually over time.
Are you still in that mode or is this a place to hang out? Yeah. No, I I I would say uh if you look at the SCP from from December, you most people had additional normalization, but at the same time, we've done a lot of the process of normalizing. A good piece of it is done with 75 basis points and before that 100.
It's 175 basis points. we've cut since we began cutting in September of 2024. So you've moved now to, you know, 3 point Fed funds is running just a little below 3.65%. Um, so you've moved a good way and we think we're well positioned here to watch how the economy performs. Look at the data. We're not making decisions about future meetings, but we we do think we're well positioned after those three cuts to to let the data speak to us.
Why doesn't anybody ask him about the long end? Thank you, Chair Pal. Marokquay from Bloomberg News. To what extent did the did the committee discuss the possibility of cutting at this meeting or in March? And how are you all thinking about the conditions that would merit another rate cut? Is there broad agreement on the on the committee about what it would take?
So there was broad support on the committee for holding today. Broad I would say including among non- voters. Yeah, guys. Of course, some people did want to cut and and and dissented, but committee pretty broadly for for for holding today. Um, we're not trying to articulate, you know, a test for what for when to next cut or whether to cut at the next meeting.
Um, you know, what we're saying is we're well positioned uh as we make decisions meeting by meeting, looking at the incoming data, evolving outlook and all that. And um you know we're in a position where um you know we have to we still have some tension between employment and inflation but it's less than it was.
I think that the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks risks have probably both diminished a bit. So u you know we'll be looking at that. It's about how you weigh uh the risks to the two goals and and and how big those and quantify them. And so there are different views on the committee and you know we'll find our way forward as the data evolve.
Edward. Thank you. Uh, thank you, Mr. Chairman. Edward Lawrence from Fox Business. Has the effects of tariffs um already moved through the economy on prices? A lot of it has. So, basically, uh, estimates and and they're all highly uncertain, but most of the overrun uh, in goods prices is from tariffs.
And that's actually good news because if it weren't from tariffs, it might mean it's from demand and and you know that's that's a harder problem to solve. We we do think tariffs are likely to move through and be a one-time price increase. So most of the overshoot if you if you were to take that out, you'd get and you would I mean inflation core PC inflation is running just a bit above 2% x the effects of tariffs on goods.
And the other good news is if you look away from goods and look at services, you do see ongoing disinflation in in all the categories of services. So that's a healthy development. That's what's going on. The expectation is that we will see uh the effects of um of tariffs flowing through it. It does relate to what he said last week and then starting to come down assuming there no major that then we can price in more cuts.
But uh and that's what we expect to see over the course of this year. If if we see that if the if we see that that would be something that tells us uh that we can we can loosen policy. Also policy the labor market still holding on it's not stabilizing that in fact it's the downside risks reemerge or or the data just get worse.
We'd have to look at both of those. We have a two-sided mandate. If I could um if President Trump does pick a new Fed chairman before May um what does that look like? How would you work with that person and what does that transition period look like? I don't have anything for you on that. What the That's a normal question, pal.
That's that will depend on ones and things I I can't speculate on. Howard Schne with Reuters. Thank you for taking our questions. Um, given the changes in the statement and all you've said so far, is it is it fair to describe uh risks to your to both sides of the bandaid as roughly balanced right now?
And is the next move necessarily down? I'd say trying to ask him if he'll raise rates. The the upside again, the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks risks to employment have diminished, but there they still exist. So, there's still some tension between the mandates. Are they fully in balance?
Uh, hard to say. Hard to say. And, you know, we we again, we think our policy is in a good place. Um, I've just discussed reasons why we might change our policy and, you know, we'll just have to see how the data lead us. I I'm wondering you you you a minute ago you said you felt expectations were consistent with your with your mandate that the two and the 10-year break evens have moved quite notably in the last couple of weeks I believe right
there. Any concern on that front? I mean, the I I recently looked at at all all of the both survey and market-based short-term inflation expectations have come way down. You know, they they they were in a good place at the beginning of last year. They spiked around liberation day and now they fully retraced in the last few months.
So, that's very comforting. And the longer term inflation expectations have remained in places that are, you know, very consistent with 2% inflation over time. So expectations are have been solid and they they reflect, you know, confidence in in the return to 2% inflation. Andrew, apologies if this is a little bit repetitive, but in the past you've said that the reason you cut rates was that the risk to the labor market was greater than the risk to the inflation side.
Is that still true? You know, we haven't made You're right. We we uh we saw the labor market weakening and we acted and I think that was the appropriate thing to do. We have you know we will always act to to address what we see as uh the economy moving away from our goals. Uh risks to both of the variables are a little less.
I think that the upside risk to inflation again a little bit less and the downside risk to employment a little less. Um, I just would say that I I'm not making a judgment about how, you know, one of them is more at risk than the other, just that the risks to both of them have have diminished. Okay. Thanks.
Um, BIS wrote a paper last summer which concluded that global investors were hedging their dollar exposures in ways that previously they they hadn't because of policy uncertainty. Do you agree with BIS? We really don't see much at all about that. that whole that whole story. There's just not a lot of data that that suggests that there's much to that.
Thanks, Anna. Anna Swanson with the New York Times. Um, can you talk more about what you would need to see in the labor market to conclude it's time to resume easing? Do you need to see further deterioration in the labor market or would it be enough for inflation to soften? So we'll always be looking at both things and so there could be combinations, infinite numbers of combinations that would cause us to want to move.
Certainly a weakening labor market would be an argument for loosening. But what's happening with inflation? If inflation were at the same time getting worse, you know, you just you just have a very difficult situation there. So we'll be looking at both. Clearly a weakening labor market calls for cutting.
A stronger labor market says that that the rate rates are in a good place. We'll have to be making similar judgments too on inflation though. And if inflation does pick back up and the labor market doesn't show further signs of deterioration, is it there a chance that you could raise rates rather than simply remaining on hold?
What would you need to see to consider hiking? We don't we don't take things off the table, but it isn't anybody's base case right now, anybody's base case that the next move will be a rate hike. But, you know, ultimately we'll do we'll do what we think is the right thing. But that's that's not where people's expectations are right now.
Victoria. Hi, Victoria Aguido with Politico. Um, I I wanted to ask, you've talked in the past about concerns about the US fiscal trajectory, and we've seen in the Japanese bond market a lot of turmoil recently, uh, in part due to concerns over their their fiscal and and long-term economic outlook. So, do you worry that the US could at some point find itself in a situ similar situation to Japan, whether for fiscal or demographic reasons?
You know over time you've seen that US rates have remained pretty nuclear still going up really for a while but they haven't moved a lot buys right at VWAP but none of this is really gamechanging so Intel it's more of an overtime thing again I would start getting ready for Microsoft and Meta earnings
uncontroversially on an unsustainable path the level of debt is not unsustainable it's very much sustainable but the path is unsustainable and the sooner we work on it the better but um you right now the we're running a very large deficit at essentially full employment and um so the fiscal picture needs to be addressed and it's not really being addressed.
So uh that's important. I I I'm not in any way connecting it to some sort of near-term market event, but u ultimately it's something we'll have to deal with and you know in the end in the end game that's that's where you wind up is in some kind of a difficult thing. But that's that's not where we are.
It's not what Japan is either. But u it's certainly not where we are right now. Does it reduce the effect of your rate cuts that longer term rates have overall not really budged that much? There you go. I wouldn't say that. You know the thing is um I mean technically technically higher longer term rates means less accommodated financial conditions but remember many many things means longer term rates.
It's not and it's not mostly what happens on the short end. there can be effects of longerterm rates from our moving our policy around but you know it's much more you know assessments of the fiscal path and fiscal policies and and risks and things like that that move the tenure around. You can you can look back at and find periods where we've been very actively moving the the policy rate and over the course of a year and over the course of that year the tenure is exactly where it started.
Yeah. So there's only one time like this. 2008 [ __ ] You know 10year rates and and the overnight. That's my question. That's it. Of course he's technically. Thanks so much. Elizabeth Schelsey with ABC News. Republican Senator Tom Tillis who sits on the Senate Banking Committee said he will block any Fed nominee including the chair until this investigation into you is resolved.
Do you support this move by the senator? And what conversations have you had with the senator? I I've got nothing for you on that. More broadly, what would happen to American households if the Federal Reserve loses its ability to operate independent from politics? You'll answer that. So really the the point of that is not to protect policy makers or anything like that.
It just is that every advanced economy democracy in the world has come around to this common practice. It's just an institutional arrangement that is that has served the people well and that is to to have a separation between uh to not have direct elected official control over the setting of monetary policy and the reason is that monetary policy can be used you know through an election cycle to to affect the economy in a way that will be politically worthwhile.
So this isn't I'm not talking about the US context. This is for economy democracy of any size. So it's a it's a good practice. It's pretty much everywhere among among countries that look at all like the United States. And I think if you lose that um it's first of all it would be hardability of the institution.
People lose their faith that we're we're we're making decisions you know only on the basis of our we gained a lot of faith public rather than trying to benefit one group or another. If you lose that, it's going to be hard to retain. And we haven't lost it. I I don't believe we will. I certainly hope we won't.
But it's very important. And the reason it's important is that it's enabled central banks generally not to be perfect, but to serve the public. You're confident it can maintain that independence at this point. Yes. I mean, I'm I'm strongly committed to that and so are my colleagues. So, literally the last two questions,
Archie, this was the chart I'm showing. I mean, again, that was before the election. Archie Hall from the Economist sort of stabilization of the labor market question. How much do you see the week last six months year as a kind of data mirage around immigration and the government shutdown and so on that's now resolved or how much have we seen a kind of real underlying firming up in the state of the labor market do you think?
Well, part of it is to your point, part of it just is that that uh labor supply, growth in labor supply has come to essentially a halt from a fairly fast uh uh clip of growth over the last couple of years driven by immigration and then that the halt being driven by a very sudden stop in immigration.
So many outcomes were possible with that. Um you know, supply came way down. It turns out that demand for labor also came down a very similar amount, maybe just a little bit more, which is why the unemployment rate has gone up. So I don't know whether that's a coincidence or not, but that's that's what's happened with with that part.
But if you look at other um uh things like for example the just to pick a couple um the conference board's measure of job availability that came out I don't know was it yesterday or today but uh you know it shows ser it's a survey showing that that workers feel like job availability is it's a very low reading just one reading but it's an indication of softening uh people part-time for economic reasons uh which is a category within the broader U6 category measure um has moved up significantly.
So there there are lots of I could go on and on. There are lots of little places that suggest that the labor market has softened. Uh but part of but you're right part of payroll jobs softening is that both the supply and demand for labor has has come down. Growth in those two have both have come down.
So that that makes it a difficult time to read the labor market. Um you know so imagine they both came down a lot to the point where there is no job growth. Is that full employment? In a sense, it is. If if demand and supply are in um are are in balance, you know, that you could say that's full employment.
At the same time, does it do we really feel like that's that's a maximum employment economy? U you know, it's a challenging it's very challenging and quite unusual situation. Thanks. And not as confident in the labor market based on that strong growth outlook or strengthening growth out weird. How much is the fiscal stimulus we're seeing from the beautiful bill, the tax cuts and and all of that?
So, you're seeing it already. You don't have much of the fiscal cuts. I think the outlook, you're right, it's it's financial conditions and it's u it's fiscal policy for 26. Um, but you've got strong consumption that's been happening before financial conditions have been supportive, but before the fiscal uh uh effects really are shown.
So essentially the economy has once again surprised us with its strength not for the first time. Uh and you know consumer spending although it's you know it's uneven across income categories but consumer spending overall numbers are good and um we're benefiting from the you know from the AI buildout of data centers.
That's that's another thing we're benefiting from. But the economy overall growth is growth is um is on a solid footing it looks like. And and it's not just those things. It's it's just the consumers the consumer is filling out you know surveys that sound really negative and then spending. So there's been a disconnect for some time between these surveys and you know reasonably good spending data.
Thanks Sher Pal. Christine Romans from NBC News. You talked about how consumer spending is uneven. The president calls inflation defeated and solved. The FOMC says it's a somewhat elevated inflation, but you talked about those customer survey or those consumer sentiment surveys and public opinion polls that show that most families say the cost of living is still issue number one.
What is the conversation around the table with your colleagues about how wealthier consumers seem to be driving so much of the economy and why so many families still feel like they just can't make ends meet after 5 years of rising prices? What is that discussion like? So, a couple things. one, there's something something to it in in that we know that um higher income households that tend to own real estate and tend to own stocks, you know, securities and those assets have been going up in value and and you know, increases in wealth do support spending over time.
So, and that's that's clearly a part of the story. We also know that for some time now, for you know, a year or more, we've been hearing from u retailers, for example, that serve lower income customers, whether it be food or the big box stores or any they're saying the same thing, which is our consumers are looking to economize.
They're they're trading down from brands and they're buying less and changing their buying habits and that kind of thing. So we're seeing that and that's that is a reality of what we're seeing. They're still consuming but but um they're they're feeling it in a different way. I would say more broadly on affordability.
We we you know we have a vast network uh through the reserve banks and also through the board of governors where we talk to small and large businesses and and households. And so we do hear a lot about affordability and we take we take that very seriously and we take it to heart because you know our job is one of our jobs is price stability and so you know the the best thing we can do for for people who are feeling that squeeze is to keep inflation under control and you know frankly to finish the job of getting inflation back down to 2%.
You mentioned the AI buildout as being a positive for economic growth this year. I wonder as you look at the weakest year last year for job creation of a nonrecession year since like 2003, are you concerned about AI maybe supplanting more entrylevel work and entry level jobs and how does that play into your what you're watching about the labor market?
You know, so everyone of course is watching AI and the deployment and you know trying to understand exactly what's happening. Um and there's a wide range of possibilities. It's it's hard to say. We're and of course anyone who uses it is amazed at at what it can accomplish, right? So, uh, every every technological wave will will eliminate some jobs and and create other jobs.
And it's always been the case if you look back wave after wave after wave. There will be some disruption, but ultimately technology uh increases productivity which is the basis for rising wages. And it may not all happen immediately but over time it's what it's what enables incomes to rise over time is rising productivity.
So will and we always ask well this this is going to be different you know is is it going to be different and we we don't know um and we may in any case see in the short term uh jobs that are being eliminated by the capabilities of AI we may see that um we just don't know what the overall effect is going to be.
So how to think about it in in ter in macroeconomic terms it's very hard you know we we can look at the aggregate data uh we can we can analyze for example the the there is some connection it appears between the um low hiring rate for recent college grads uh and AI but it's not the the the main or only driver um you hear large companies though saying many of them saying that they either won't be hiring for some time or that they're hiring less or that drilling people often they they tend to refer to AI uh when they when they do that.
So we're all watching and learning and it could could certainly have pretty significant effects on the economy, the workforce and our society. Um we don't really have the tools to address the concerns that may arise but we have a lot of people who who focus on analyzing it and try to try to understand what the macroeconomic implications are which which is our job.
Beggy. Thank you, Chair Powell. Beggy from AFP News Agency. Um, you mentioned earlier that on inflation the broad expectation was for onetime price increase and then for inflation to come down and I was wondering news still for inflation to start cooling in the second half of 2026 and if you could elaborate how far we are from target currently.
Thank you. I wonder you might get some other questions. So, how far we are from target is um as I mentioned in my opening remarks, we're we had 3% 3.0% core PCE inflation over the 12 months ending in December. And that's pretty much what we had the year before. So, on net no progress, but the story behind that is is modestly positive in that most of the overshoot was in goods prices, which we think is related to tariffs and ultimately we think those will not result in inflation as opposed to a one-time price increase.
Okay. So that's that's where where it is in terms of if you asked um so it no one thinks they they will uh you know Exanti understand really clearly precisely when this will happen but there's an expectation that sometime in the middle quarters of the year we'll see um tariff inflation topping out. So what we do is we when a tariff is put in place we track the effect of those tariffs
over time seven eight n month period and you can see and then you can see for that tariff how long it takes to reach a place where it's it's affected and that's it gold likes we're getting better at that and and our estimate is that it'll be sometime in the middle of the year but I wouldn't look for great precision in that but you know we'll be able to see whether things are moving in that direction.
I think you know we'll be able to see come in a week they're talking Fed chairpick message but thanks Richard Escobido with CBS News um I want to look outside the US about what's happening outside our shores and how it trade um Canada's prime minister said last I'm surprised nobody's asked him about gold and I wonder how political risk as it economy
he said nothing on the dollar he say anything on gold or silver speech or statement or anything like that. You know geopolitical risk for us is a lot of it is around um energy oil and so far we haven't you know with all for all the turmoil we really oil prices are have come down as you know and and so we don't really see much you know longer than that uh it's trade and you know the the trade uh the economy our economy has has pulled through pretty well you'd have to say given the very significant changes in trade policy the US economy has has pushed right through.
Partly that is that the the the way that what was implemented was significantly less than what what was announced at the beginning. In addition, other countries didn't retaliate and in addition a good part of it hasn't been passed through to consumers yet. It's being it's being taken by companies that
the last comment pretty much saying that part of the statement about inflation will probably get removed in June if Powell's timeline holds up. It's already gone. Thank you to your pal Jennifer finance with third quarter GDP growing at 4.4% and the fourth quarter expect as to what the Atlanta Feding at a time when you had a government shutdown and we thought that was going to shave off some growth.
You've also got the fiscal tailwinds you've talked about big tax refunds coming potential tariff dividend. How could you cut rates and not spur inflation in that environment? Well, um, we didn't cut rates today. Uh, but, um, you know, it would dep it depends on how fast potential output is growing, right?
I'm just ask ask in principle. I'm not, you know, I'm not saying this is what's happening, but you know, there's growth inflation, how fast the potential is growing. And at a time of of um, you know, high productivity growth, potential output is rising. So it really matters whe whether um potential output is growing as fast as actual output and and it would matter over time.
The numbers you cite were for quarters and quarterly GDP is you you need to look at 12 months because quarterly G GDP can be very lumpy. You know GDP was negative in the first quarter last year. So the overall over the year the numbers were nothing like that. You know it was more in the mid twos for the year.
And how do you explain the divide right now between strong economic growth and the job market? Is it productivity that's filling the gap? And is productivity being driven by AI at this point? So we there has been you're right there has been a divide of solid growth but what look like a weakening labor market and that can be explained by um by rising productivity.
But um I would say we we do see signs of um certainly of the of the unemployment rate stabilizing. So it may be we're seeing the beginning of the resolution of those two things. Also, as you probably know, the the lore is that when GDP and and the labor market get into an argument, in the end, uh labor market is more the labor market data is more reliable.
GP data is is very hard to to collect and understand. But nonetheless, I think we we may be seeing that that tension resolving a little bit. Too soon to say with any uh confidence though. Matt Egan. Matt Eaggan with CNN. Chair Powell. After today, you have two meetings left as Fed chair. You've obviously experienced a lot during your time as Fed chair, served under multiple presidents.
I'm wondering what advice you have for whoever your successor might be. Honestly, I'd say a couple things. One is um Oh, yeah. What you got? You know, stay out of elected politics. Don't get pulled into tell them not to cut before an election. Don't do it. And that that's another thing. Another is um that you know our window into
laser army contract speculation accountability is and it's not a passive burden for us to go to Congress and talk to people. It's an affirmative regular obligation. If you want democratic legitimacy you earn it by your interactions with the our elected overseers. And so it's something you need to work hard at.
and I I have worked hard at it. So, um and the last thing is, you know, it's easy to it's easy to criticize government institutions so many ways. I will tell whoever it is, you're about to meet the most qualified group of people you you not only have ever worked with, you will ever work with. And when you meet Fed staff,
I don't believe you. And not everybody's perfect, but but there isn't a better contrib. Thanks for that answer. Um, if I may follow up, as I'm sure you've noticed, gold and silver prices have experienced historic gains of late. Yeah, I'm wondering how much attention, if any, you moves and and what message you may take from these uh significant price increases we've seen for precious metals.
How can you not ask about it? Don't don't take much message macroeconomically. Um the argument can be made it's, you know, that we're losing credibility or something. It's simply not the case. If you if you look at where inflation expectations are, our credibility is right where it needs to be. So we look at those things.
We don't we don't get spun up over particular asset price changes. Although we do we do monitor them, of course. All right, fair enough. That's what I'm saying, bro. You can't have the wildest move from the 1800s in the Fed chair has nothing to say. It was good, though. You just said has nothing to do with my
the Fed's economic models are are somewhat backwardlooking um but should be more forwardlooking, incorporating things like productivity increases from AI. How do you incorporate current and future developments into your analysis and decision-m? And do you have a an answer to those critics? Yeah. So, by and large, those criticisms, as somebody on the inside, they just don't make sense.
And I'll tell you why. Every FOMC participant writes down a forecast every quarter, right? The summary of economic projections. And that's the basis for how we think about the economy. So and the the other thing is you know uh what an what an economic model can do is it can grind up all the data for the last number of years 50 years let's say and it can it can identify what are the relationships between variables A B C D and all that kind of thing and it can tell you if you change one of those variables this is what should happen in the macroeconomy that's just the way it works however the structure of the macroeconomy is constantly changing for example we We hadn't had a pandemic in 100 years.
It wasn't in the model and we knew it from the very beginning. It was not in the model. A trade war of this scope, we'd never had that in, you know, in a hundred years. And and so there's great uncertainty at at uh at different points. Um, another thing I'll say is, uh, you know, when it comes to, uh, you know, technological developments that raise potential output, some kind of technological renovation, you know, revolution like like happened in the '9s here and like maybe happening now with AI.
We're all over that. And, you know, we everyone studies those periods and, you know, we're very cleareyed about the possibility that this higher productivity may persist um, and also that it may not. You know, we we we're not no one's sitting here unaware of the possibility of higher productivity. We've been talking about it for three years.
It it long predates the current situation. It's been going on for five or six years. Productivity higher. We've been talking about credibility on the back end. It's very much on our minds and we we are well well aware this whole thing. Higher productivity means higher potential output. Anything changes the way you think about potentially inflation, growth, labor market and all those things.
That's all in at least nothing new from the last couple months if it's a question better models bring them on you know where are they we'll take them but I think survey are in contact with anybody respond to this and and we're always looking to do better at that but that's that's how I think about that
and just a quick followup we've been talking a lot about tariffs and passing through and we've been talking a lot about them for the past few months you know the trade landscape is still in a constant state of flux uh announcements threats, negotiations, they're all frequently changing. So, I'm wondering how you actually track these, how what data channels are most critical to follow this in real time.
Trade. Yeah. The impact of tariffs and how they're changing. Decent question. Yeah. I I think our staff has done a really nice job on that and and they've kind of put it together in real time. So, as I mentioned, a tariff gets put in place. you can pretty much track its effects on pricing and on everything and and so you build up build a model up from all of the all of the tariffs.
At the beginning it was very much of a forecast. Now it's it's every every cycle that goes by it becomes more informed by actual data. And you know we were we our forecasts were not far off. Um what changed was as I think I said earlier what changed was what was implemented was smaller than what was announced.
In addition we didn't see retaliation internationally and I think people did generally expect that because we saw that in the past and that really mattered too. And then the other thing is that pass through didn't know how fast that was going to be to consumers. Didn't know how much exporters would take how much it companies in the middle would take and how much the consumer would take.
And it turns out it's a lot of companies in the middle who, by the way, are pretty strongly committed to passing the rest of it through, which is one of the reasons why we need to keep our eye on inflation and not declare victory prematurely. Thank you. We're done. Okay, that's it. Thank you very much.
No last question. Wow. Chattonia. Well, not too bad, bro. I think that was very very boring. At least you got your question on gold and silver. That was a little bit different. But yeah, you only have 45 minutes left in the go. Let me switch this up. We have the earnings now. So you have Microsoft and uh what's it called?
Microsoft and Meta. But dude, that was uh kind of disappointing, but exactly what we expected. The statement changed. He acknowledged I mean he acknowledged it many times about inflation even though they kept it in the statement. He did acknowledge how in the short run it kind of has been very good.
He talked about the labor market. There was one question where he was discussing how you know demand of labor went down but then so did the uh so did the the weakness at the same time. And that that one on full employment. I think that was probably the best question and answer as far as the labor market.
But you got your changes on this statement and now all we're doing is probably waiting till June. But like I told you guys after kind of processing it there for a little bit. Uh very simple. That was probably the last uh what you saw in December, that was probably your last rate cut of Jerome Powell's career.
Uh at least as the Fed chair. So yeah, really you're going to get him till you'll still have Powell till like May or June, I believe. But that's like even then his answer on tariffs kind of gave it away because the one thing with inflation and then they said uh it's going to pass through you know they just he said probably by June he gave you a pretty direct timeline.
I'm very glad they talked about gold and silver you know he did kind of they talked about it with hedging but that wasn't it but like he did get defensive about gold and silver. He was saying I don't think that has to to do with my credibility. I had nothing to do with my credibility. What do you mean if that they are willing to buy medals?
What are you saying? So yeah, but I don't think that was too bad. But unfortunately, there was not a there was not enough, man. Microsoft and Meta earnings. So yeah, man. Fascinating, exciting. Not too bad. That wasn't too actually a little longer. I mean, some of the other ones only lasted like 30 minutes.
The one in October, uh, that was about 45 almost 50 minutes. So, again, I think the the fact that we have the earnings coming up here, that might get it a little bit more exciting. But other than that, dude, it was pretty uh pretty chill. So, we will find out. But other than that, my friends, that is all that we got.
It was pretty much a dud. I mean, you're what? You're back up to you're below the first like little freakout candle when he started talking. You had that little freakout and then you're barely above where we started. Gold and silver kept going without the dollar. But I do hope you guys noticed that uh gold and silver literally made a move on the uh what's it called?
Uh gold and silver moved on the uh oh what was it? The the tariff comment. So the tariff comment leading into uh you know when the pass through is going to finally you know when they'll they won't see those tariff inflation effects. Gold and silver moved on that because you guys got to think about it.
If you wanted to frontr run a rate cut if you wanted to assume where the economy and policy and other things were going to go I mean that makes a lot of sense. Uh again they they started running off of that. But I don't think this is going to be gamechanging. Sadly, uh, like we talked about, I do think that Meta and Microsoft.
That'll probably have more to do with the market than not. I mean, overall, it was his last time cutting in, um, in December. You're not going to get much from him now, but you still got a couple more meetings, but that was it, man. And that was not not much. Not much at all. So, I have something for you, though.
In the meantime, if you guys want, you can uh you could screenshot these if you would like. That's the guidance for Meta and then that's the guidance for Microsoft. So I have the expect maybe you might want the expectations too. So maybe we could start with this. So Meta is down 10% on the quarter uh if you're not aware since last earnings.
Uh and then last four quarters they've moved down 11 positive 11 positive4 positive2 and then Microsoft Microsoft down 13 on the quarter down three plus 4 plus 8 down six. They've kind of moved the same but both of them are only pricing in five and 6%. Again Meta moved 10% on the last two weeks and it it was only pricing in five.
So now they're pricing in a little bit more and then it's already made a big move. And then Microsoft kind of moved this similar just not as as juicy and then they're still pricing in five. But take that how you please. Oh yeah, you do have the Tesla earnings. I forgot about I keep forgetting about those.
I think I still even have a Tesla play. Tell me why Tesla's only going to matter on margins. So those are your previews. Again, uh the numbers will matter, but not really. Uh like I'm saying here, what matters for Meta is the Q1 guide. Uh whether or not they're going to I think I have that. That one's not on here, though.
But if Meta could have a strong guide, I think that's all people are going to care about. No, I don't even have it. I'll have to go get that. I could pull up Tesla for you right now. But yeah, Tesla's all that matters is margin and then robo taxi deliveries. Otherwise, Tesla, remember they come out with the delivery number.
So, it's not really the uh biggest mover, but then uh Microsoft, you want to see AI. If you could get like actual AI [ __ ] out of Microsoft, I think people will like that. Uh but other than that, it's going to get clapped without with only Azour. People might even get disappointed. And then all you need is make sure Mark Zuckerberg doesn't spend too much.
And as long as Zuckerberg doesn't spend too much, mix it in with a good Q1 guide. I mean, Meta probably has the most room to run. Oh, let's see. It's sad, bro. Powell's done, man. That's it. You'll never get a rate cut out of him again. So, yeah. Okay, here's Tesla expecting 24.77. Uh the gap gross margin 17.7 adjusted EBA margin 143 and then damn those uranium plays still going and then pricing in 6.1 last four quarters on Tesla positive2 minus 8 plus 5 plus three.
So, I don't know if you guys have noticed so far is that uh it's kind of uh all these earnings like they're big names and you know these couple of percentages mean a lot but at the same time it's not like meta Microsoft if Microsoft if you're lucky will move 8 to 10%. Otherwise, Meta is the probably going to be the bigger one but it's not like they have to move big.
Some of them, some of them moved a lot lower. So, yeah, man. Good luck. Spies still carrying away, but like for real, I think uh everybody is going to be moving on here into uh into meta mode. You only got like 35 minutes left, so good luck and get ready, my friends. Good luck and get ready. I think that's all I have for you.
All we got to do is That's sad. That's it, man. the the Fed meeting, first one of the year. First one of the year, one of Powell's last ones. All of the big reporters literally just they wasted their questions asking him uh about the politics. I was surprised by that, though. Like I was telling you, that was the base case.
The base case for most people coming into this, they were expecting Powell to not say anything about uh what was going on. They did not expect him to say anything about the hostage video. But I'm surprised he actually didn't. He He avoided it. He didn't even answer if he answered to it. They stayed far away from it.
The one question that he answered that was kind of borderline was the one regarding uh what advice he would give. He didn't even want to talk about the transition. He didn't even want to say anything about working with the transition for the new guy. But he said the advice I would give you is stay out of politics even though you could argue Dan Powell.
He's a wise man. He's a wise man and he's a wise guy. You know there's two two different things. Two different things. What's alkt? That looks to be something, brothers. ALT. Are they going to halt that? Oh, those options are terrible. Will it give you one? Yeah, it will. I feel they're going to halt that [ __ ] bro.
I just popped 8% in one candle. Oh, yeah. I have no idea what it is. I just got a cheap one, though. ALKT. Yeah, they won't fill anything on that. What is it? It has to be a buyout or something. Al KT ale. That's I don't know, man. If it fades though, that'll be a dud. But 7% on one and those options are terrible.
But it gave me one. Usually they don't give me one. Bro, I don't see anything on that. Alkt said to tap V advisor to explore sale. Oh, nice. All right. Well, those [ __ ] hit. Tell me why. All right, it's leveling out. They fived all of them. That was just too big, bro. Too big on the first candle. But they they chilled out for a second there and then they then they keep flashing back and forth.
I put a high offer and it won't fill me. All right, it came back. Yeah, you'll get a follow through on that. I don't know any of the details, but that's coming out now. I'll stick around for earnings. Yeah, that's why I got you guys the previews. We'll see where it leads us and then we'll have a good old jolly old time.
Again, I've already made my Meta Plays free. uh I took a different play instead of Microsoft and maybe that could be the best uh advice I could give you not a recommendation but you want to again capex capex capex so you kind of want to think about the sympathy plays you might have a better chance playing those and then think about it if it's a really good or bad earnings everybody's going to get kicked into gear off of those so I think that's going to be the uh other opportunity so good luck and God bless and we will see where it leads us.
Yeah, that's up seven. See, if it takes another leg, they'll fill those those contracts are they came back down for now. One more leg, it'll go crazy. But that first little fiasco is worth anything. Yeah, gold is still bro. My grill is making money, you know. Yes. And that was I posted it on my Instagram.
Some of you asked me about it. That was my grill. So, if you know Paul Wall, what I I don't even I forgot how that song goes. I keep thinking of Nelly. Give me two grills. How do you I was Let me I need to hear it. But yeah, I I have a grill like Paul Wall. I bought it 10 years ago. Uh but like Yeah.
And now I did I just found it today and apparently it's a it's a good one. Yeah. You remember this? Yeah. Well, GLD man new high. Is that there's a I don't know. I think it could. I feel like it could have been. I don't know. I don't It's not That was not as exciting. I like give me two. I need two power so I could get to stopping in my Air Force One.
But yeah, man. That's all we got for the girls right there, bro. spot gold plus 800 in last nine trading days. I still think silver is crazy. I am so glad they asked that question though that some of y'all were really about to let that slide. You know that you just saw the first ever like biggest move since either 1970s or the 1800s and you literally a a silver gold move unlike anything you've ever seen during an inflation cycle.
Y'all were about to really let the Fed chair get away with not ask. Are you serious? Like, come on, bro. I It's not because I own a bunch of silver and gold and because I've been telling y'all all last year and the end of end of last year. It's not because of that. It's because where you are at in the cycle, how rare you are at in the cycle, bro.
All of this. You guys are really about to let him slide. Not. So, yeah. I'm glad we got to to hear about that. But damn, bro. Smile for me long term. Let me save a 10. No. Okay. But yeah, bro. There's no way. No way you could have let that slide. All right. Well, 9% on AOKT. The options went back up, but they chilled out.
They were They went 1,000% real quick. I should have filled it. I thought I was like, I'mma wait. Let me see if I get a price on it. Amid activism has hired advisor holder Jana urging company to explore sale. Smile for me long term. All right, man. Well, let me go pee and then get ready for earnings.
You only got 30 minutes left, Doc. Only 30 minutes left. Even though they they don't have the the lion share of the equities, they are still more invested than many years past. So it's a it it's helping a big part of America. Of course not that bottom of the K which just continues. And yet by some measures by some measures conference board consumer confidence hasn't been lower in the last decade.
Explain. Yeah. Conference board was was weaker. You miss was stronger. I think the net of the two is a consumer that feels bad about the their the price level in the economy, which is something that cannot be changed easily by any means, but they're largely employed and they they they don't like the policy uncertainty.
So they're they continue to spend because most of them are employed and continue to make decent wage gains. They also have the wealth they benefit from that wealth effect. But when you ask them how do you feel about the economy, it's perhaps not great. Or maybe four 5% nominal GDP is not what it used to be.
that it's not a lab as labor intensive that this growth is coming from tech capex spend that not changing the lives of everyday Americans at least not now. Isn't that a good explanation as to what's going on? Yeah, I think that's part of it and also concerned about the future prospects because we all know AI is going to have important impacts on the labor market.
You continue to see headlines about job cuts. The thing is at this part of the year there is often headlines about job cuts and everybody gets scared in January about the labor market because they see all these headlines and then it proves to be not such a big problem. And Jeff Rosenberg, I'm sure you're aware of Posen and Orzag's mapping out of a higher inflation, a more resilient inflation.
What does your bond world do if we get inflation resilience? So, a a big part of that, Tom, is in the term premium, right? The Fed and what we saw in 2025 was that the short end of the yield curve, shorter maturities were very responsive to policy rates. It came up in the press conference today in the question about long-term interest rates and Powell basically admitted that, you know, longerterm interest rates are going to be a function.
He focused on the fiscal policy uncertainty, but there's more than that. There's real interest rates. The whole other picture to AI is an incredible shift in investment demand that raises real interest rates. And the inflation piece to your question, Tom, is about inflation risk premia. And as you move further out in time, there's more time for that uncertainty for all those reasons to to to affect inflation.
And the bond market impact is a steeper yield curve reflective in nominal space of of of greater inflation risk premium. I mean, I look at this Jeff and the question of where we are and this goes back to dollar analysis of the last couple days is it's very nonlinear at some point. If I looked, you know, to look at the benchmark 10-year yield, how close are we to a point where you get accelerative tendencies?
If we unwind, that would be lower bond prices, higher yield. Is it 10 beeps away? Is it 30 beeps away? Is it a fiction? It's just out there somewhere. Yeah. Again, it kind of came up in the context of the recent volatility and JGBs. You know, is there a nonlinear uh event for the US bond market? uh you know it's a different market.
It's much bigger. It's much deeper. There's a lot more impact in terms of price and substitution effects that can happen. He talked about it in terms of the fiscal side. It you know the the the debt level is sustainable but the path is unsustainable at some point. You know no one really knows where that point is.
We we used to talk about it in the context of small open market economies around 100% 80% debt to GDP. That's a very different setup than for the US economy and we don't really know. I I I would I think it's a much longer term process in terms of building a risk premium slowly and less of this kind of tipping point argument.
Let's go. How you can move forward with your long-term? What do you want to do? I mean, I would like for you to go over all of the trading fraternity videos, just the ones last year. It's maybe like 12 or so. Uh and get an idea of how we how we did the rebuilder. Go to the Intel video. uh the video of me buying Intel last year uh right before the government.
Uh you could kind of see the start of the the launch term and I you know I redid another one because the other one now is getting a little old. Uh and even though it's the smallest account, you could still kind of see how we're going about the rebuild. But you know try to use the rules 20% cash. Uh that's your max.
You want to get a good balance between growth stocks and some dividend stocks. And you know let your portfolio speak to you. So, I mean, I would ask you uh before you email me, tell me a little bit about your portfolio. What do you what do you see so far? What do you have the most of? What do you have the least of?
How much cash do you have? And you know, are you familiar with the latest plays that we have actually added to the lawn term? Cuz I think that's a good place to start. Some of y'all is it who is it in the Bible? You guys are acting like the Bible character. Y'all trying to get to Rachel. Y'all acting like I'm hiding a Rachel from you.
You know that. I don't know if you know Bible analogies. You guys act like I'm making you work for like five years and then another five years to give you the ugly sister. But I'm telling you, bro, like there's some there's only there's a couple of good plays out there right now. There's a there's a couple of good plays out there.
So, I'm I'm not holding anything back. I mean, we talked a little bit about if you really wanted to take some some bigger risk, you can. But even then, I mean, just the last couple years with the long-term, I mean, kind of keeping you guys away from higher prices, you may I mean, even then, some of the plays that went the craziest, they they didn't they met the criteria.
They weren't trading at the at the highest level possible. They were actually trading really low and then they got really really high. So, you don't want to be the guy buying them just yet. But, I mean, if you really insist on it, uh, that that if your portfolio allows it, you know, I was willing to take some risk, higher price names because we had a lot of growth stocks or we had a lot of value stocks and all that, but yeah, you just got to find your balance, brethren.
You just got to find your balance for remote jobs. I mean, I think you would have a bigger advantage right now doing non remote if possible. So, I feel I feel like they call like remote jobs are very rare nowadays. Like you could get some really really good uh if you get get a remote job, I I heard it's the holy grail.
It's the holy grail, but then you can't move up. They say it's kind of like golden handcuffs, but other than that, I mean, if you are willing to to go to the office, I don't I don't know what you work in, but it's there. And I mean, I've been telling people I'd think about opening your own business.
That's always a good option. Uh again, there's a lot of stuff you could do with coding and AI all all of that, man. Mhm. Silver V, dude. Just like yesterday again, that June comment, the June comment on tariffs, that's really what started to uh to set this thing off. Humanana is crazy. It's not that crazy.
You guys don't remember when I bought Humanana and then it dropped to $200 the day after. So, in a weird way, you've experienced this price. It's a lot better, but considering it's been almost like a year since then, actually, a little bit over a year, I'm not too excited by it. Especially now that you could get UNH, but even then, please be aware of the healthc care expectations.
Maybe it might save you some time. Bumble got hacked. Oh man. You guys in shambles. Really good remote accounting jobs. Well, there you go. Uh long-term. Honestly, like I mean this this might sound rude, but like don't send me your long term unless it's like you followed the rules cuz I'm just going to just throw it out the window.
You know what I'm saying? Like I just I I'll try my best to help and I might remember it and if you're actually involved, I'd be down to definitely help you out. But you know what I'm saying? Like if you [ __ ] got like dude, just don't don't give me some [ __ ] lawn term. You like Josh, I did everything you told me not to.
uh I sell out once every four months and this is what I call my lawn term. Just call it something else. You know what I'm saying? Just don't don't do that. But other than that, like I'm saying, I'm really trying to push people to to learn. Like, you know, I hope you guys realize like I I do this in front of you so that you could see what is happening.
Both the timing, how to execute, you know, we're even talking through all the stuff I've ever purchased. I I'm talking y'all through it and you're kind of seeing, you're watching me wait. everything from letting the dust settle to the cash balance, even turning it into a property. So, I want you guys to get in the game and involved and understand that I'm not doing there's no secret sauce.
There's nothing that I am doing that you cannot do yourself. And I think that's very encouraging. That's why I'm saying I'm not trying to be an [ __ ] But I do want you guys to to learn how to have this ability because it really just takes once a month if that. And you got to you just got to get a a very fundamental basis of your emotions.
emotional stability to and again if you're really going to commit for the long run this is going to be one of the easiest games you could play. You don't got to overthink it most of the time like when people don't know what to do with the long term or they're like keep you know like what do I do? What do I do?
How come? It's like you're trying to negotiate. You're trying to get around the rules you know get around the cash balance get around buying stocks that are really really high on the year all all of these other factors. You know the rules are very very simple. uh they they haven't changed and I I like to think I followed them to the tea for you guys.
You know, I feel like we've colored outside the lines a little bit early on uh in the early stages of building it on the smaller account and you could kind of see how that's played out. But, you know, definitely got to to really stick to it and and you guys have got to see it. So, I that's why I'm saying I encourage you to to try to see how we've executed on it because you you can do it.
Uh, and you guys you guys should know what what the opportunities are and be patient, too. If you feel like you missed an opportunity, no worries, baby. That shit's going to come right back around. Uh, I'm telling you, that's something you got to have faith and confidence in because it does. I think I've proven it time and time again.
And a lot of you, you've missed it. The [ __ ] the globe turns around every year. You know what I'm saying? Another revolution around the sun. You got to see it. Like, you might miss it, dog. It's going to come right back in a different shape, a different form. But the principles are always going to remain and and always will apply.
So that's the that's why I'm saying I mean I'm always down to look but I don't I've been trying to get away from the habit of you know I I want to I want to unscrew the uh training wheels and I want to burn down the fence. I want you guys to to do it on your own. And not because I want you to crash, not because I want you to get lit on fire.
I want you to get on fire and passionate about your financial future. But I I want you to really, bro, you you could ride this bike. You could do it. It's not it's not anything crazy and like it's not as you could do it in a very safe manner and you don't need to uh you don't need to risk too much and you could do it in this way and that's why I'm saying like you know sometimes getting burned is the best way to learn but I think people have had enough opportunity and that's why just start start getting into it.
I'm giving you a at at the very least I am cutting down a lot of trees for you guys so that you have a pathway cleared. You know what I'm saying? I'm giving you at least every quarter. You got 10 20 stocks to pick from. You're seeing what I'm selecting. You're watching me wait from one to 3 months at a time to make a move.
You're watching me build them up. These are all names that you should know about. And you know, we're working our way into it. And that's exactly how you're going to do it. And that and those results are great. But very good, I tell you. I'm about to start talking like Trump. Probably the best results, I'd say.
I've seen good results, but man, one by one, one, one brick by brick. Would you look at that? It's a brick. One brick, two brick, three brick, you got 30,000, 300,000. I didn't think so. I know. So, yeah. I think I only bought like two stocks last No, I bought I bought like five. I got Intel, NVO, pizza, SMG, SG, CMG, and then TAP and Fizzer.
That's like six, seven. I got a couple up there. I waited very long in between them though. But and then again though, we got we shot at some good times. NVO, I got a little high, but you know, that one's still in the game. We're still working around it. And that's the beauty whether you were you don't have to be perfect.
Uh, you know, that's the best part I hope I've got to show you. You know, some of them were great, some of them were decent. Give it six months, give it a year, you're able to build all around it. And I'm telling you, man, it just it works. It works most of the time. If you ever feel like confused, if you feel like you got FOMO, I'm telling you, all of this [ __ ] is emotional.
It's emotional feeling like you got to do more and you're like, I got to do this. I got to Again, most people, the biggest threat to their money is themselves. Telling you, I've even done that. That's what I learned in uh 2022, 2023, trying to short the market when there's a bunch of [ __ ] I've done good at that in my life, too.
But there were certain times where I was like, "Wait a minute. Rates are at [ __ ] 7%." Why don't I just [ __ ] chill and make a better idea? You will be you will be the biggest threat to your money. That's what I'm saying. The threat isn't you missing out on money. I guarantee you. There is I've I've said this uh years ago, bro.
My whole life, every year or two, there's been a gigantic bubble. there's been something that went crazy, some sort of opportunity where you could have made a lot of money on it. So, don't stress. You You'll catch one of them one of these days, especially if that's what [ __ ] ruins your life and emotions, you know, feeling like you missed out of it.
Yeah, dog. These doors are opening and closing all the damn time. So, that that I have a lot of faith in that and a lot of confidence and you should, too. Uh that's why it's just like most of the time it's the emotions and you're going to feel like I got to do something. I got to go. I got to catch up.
I can't believe I didn't get that. Now, let me do this. And that second step being from the emotional, you know, flowing of all of it, that's usually what messes people up. So, I'm telling you, that's why I said even today, if y'all could preserve the money and make sure you don't lose it, I could almost guarantee you're going to gain.
That's just how it work. This is some Charlie Munger [ __ ] That's that's the game. That's the game if you really want to stay alive. And notice I've been alive and I've been a well and annoying for a very long time. Uh, and that that's that's the crazy part. That has nothing to do. We've had great plays, great pickups.
[ __ ] all of that. You know, think about it. I say I got meta at $90, [ __ ] That's the second time. I got it first at $20. Don't even Lord bless him. But that don't even matter. Look how long ago that was. That was three [ __ ] years ago. You don't give a [ __ ] anymore. You're like, "Give me the next one.
Give me the next one." Exact. I feel you, bro. I feel you. Believe me. But that's why I'm saying it's like, you got to stay alive. There is going to be the next one. There is going to be another opportunity. You don't want to get wiped out when that happens. When [ __ ] liberation day hit, we were fine again.
2023 22 hit, it stung for a little bit, but we were still in the game to be able to acquire more and keep building it. Uh even damn Colt Sister was able to [ __ ] make it out alive. So, it's just like you're going to get that opportunity. Uh but we got to if you don't die, you don't lose your shirt, you don't get [ __ ] up, you're going to win.
That's just how this game works. It is Charlie in the Chocolate Factory. So yeah, man. I hope they feel me. I hope they feel me. Mhm. That's all you got to do. So out of that list, I own all of them. Those are the ones I'm kind of down on. Find the ones that are down. I'd like it if I'm down on it and then go for quality.
So sadly, out of that whole list, Kimberly Kimberly quality. Woo! Kimberly quality. Kimberly Clark's probably the best quality out of that list. NVO is a little more risky with how it's moved and then probably o I don't even know maybe either Fizer or TAP out of that. Uh that's why I'm saying quality cuz all of those again we were picking them up for years and at different times different places they they represented a different opportunity.
But yeah, Kimberly quality. That's why I like Kimberly quality cuz it's quality, bro. It's quality. Kimberly quality. That's the part where you're not going to really regret it when you start looking back. Red Fin at under three. There's a lot of them, bro. That's what I'm saying. But it doesn't years ago.
You don't even Some people remember them and some of you made a lot of money on them and that's awesome. But it's again, it's wait till we have more and more. Wait till we look back and see what the the plays we just got to. And that's kind of the whole idea. You need to uh you need to find your uh your opportunities, but you got to stay alive till then.
And hopefully you could grow your money uh while that's happening and getting up to those moments. Meta is 750. Meta is 750. Meta to 750 after earnings. I think Meta is going to surprise and go up 12. Thank you. Thank you. Did you go over earnings? Did you go over earnings? Did you go over earnings?
When are we going over earnings? Will we be going over earnings today? I'm just reading the chat facts, bro. I'm just It's fun. Are you okay? How much money you put on this? You should You should like You should give me money to like get good vibes. You should sack. You should give a tithe. I'm just saying.
I'm just read I read it word for word. Bro, I did not add nor take away. He's still No, he's been Is it going 750? Are you What's the law term looking like, man? See, so again, if it goes to 750, I hope you make a lot of money, but if it doesn't, then he's going to we're going to play this game, bro.
But yeah, I got I only got one free one or two free ones left on Meta. We had some good ones. That stressed you out. Really? I could imagine if that was what you put your money on. But I think Meta has the most upside out of all of these, but I like the sympathies better. I'm a I'm a sympathy guy. I'm a sympathetic empathetic individual based on my forehead wrinkles.
Mhm. You hate front running earnings. Feels like a crapshoot. It all depends on the season. It's it's still a all of it. All of earnings is just a roulette wheel. That's all it is. You know, you hit it right, you get the right front run, you even get the right play, you're going to make some you're going to get 36 times your odds.
But otherwise, not so much. But yeah, there I got clapped on the UNH's with the meta. If you I'm glad I stretched the meta cuz that paid for for a lot of it, if not almost doubled even the losses. Is he going to 750? So, yeah, we'll see. Where's uh spot silver? Tell me why. If the move you invested too much, if the move make you nauseous, difference between a rock and diamond is flawless.
You don't save money. I find that appalling. Yeah. You're three bucks off the alltime high. Hey man, I hope it's good. I hope while you're in school, too, man. Let that long term grow. Let it work. But I'm telling you the just don't under the world. Everything's a circle. Everything's a cycle. The revolving door of opportunity.
It's so easy to miss and it's so easy to get caught up in the in where you're at on the stage. But I'm telling dude, Starbucks gave it all back. Oh, I hate when it does that. It might be like a two-day lag, but I'd like that cuz they have investor day tomorrow. Where did they go to? Damn, they were at 104.
HB, that's actually dirty, bro. Not much, but it's honest workout, man. You are Do you have money on Meta? How come the guy who wasn't even pumping? He's there. How come he giving me the tithe, bro? But I don't know why I even call it a tithe, you know? But then again, they if they say the churches can do the Trump accounts, maybe we should make a church and give the money to to Trump accounts.
So, I'll make y'all some Trump accounts and manage them. I'm kind of down low key. Well, thank you, my friend. I can't believe where's [ __ ] Is it 750? Did you go over earnings? Did you go over earnings? Will you go over I bet you he wasn't even there when we went over it for the third time. I'm sure he probably that could happen.
You lever too much if the move make you nauseous. Difference between a rock and diamond is flawless. It is, bro. Not saving money is appalling. It's your future, baby. Do it. It's 10%. All you need is 10%. Long-term and then see. I don't know, man. What if we get a meta intel deal? No. Okay. Don't go open the video.
You guys jack it up 10% after the CF [ __ ] see if my goodness. Don't let the time pass without enjoying some. I agree, bro. Amen. All right. But yeah, I got my sympathies in play. I encourage you to think about who's connected to Meta in Microsoft. And if they're especially if they're down, you're you'll probably have a better time.
So, make your choice, brother. Make your choice. And then those space docks killed it. We did it, Jo, copper, silver. I keep forgetting about Tesla. I keep I show Elon no love, bro. My bad, Alonia. Oh, damn. Final five. So, yeah. Get ready, boys. You got earnings here. I'll stick around for a little bit.
I'll have the previews. We already went over them. Like I said, none of I mean, Meta is the one that moves like 10 to 11 on the big earnings. Otherwise, 6 to 8 for Microsoft. Tesla only moves like 3 to five. And then they're all pricing around 5% but then most of them or at least Microsoft and Meta they've moved a decent amount there enough to start long-term following the sniping rules with quality even though I'm learning to read financials.
Yeah, man. I mean I like financials and I like to understand the companies but you know when I started showing people and we made the lawn term uh I was just telling you guys like you don't need it's not that sophisticated. You know the if you can't read a financial, it better be a name you [ __ ] know about and use and that it's like right in front of you.
But then don't use that logic to buy dog [ __ ] cuz then people will be like people will buy I use Xerox copas. You haven't used the Xerox. Shut up. You're lying. Okay. When did you use a Xerox? But you know like I'm saying Kimberly Clark Proctor Gambles. There's so many things in this world. Uh, and again, even some of the the cheaper restaurants, I just want to go crazy on them, but like, you know, even [ __ ] Chipotle was one.
You guys know what Chipotle is, right? Have you guys heard of Chapatle? You might have heard about it. But yeah, that's what it's there. Okay. Meta. And let me There's one more. There's one more. There's actually two more. There's two more. Those are those are some other ones. There you go. Don't forget KDP dump dude.
Yeah, that one showed up too. I think it was a 500% increase. Oh, that went 3% on the puts though. That one that you called out earlier that triggered. You don't save money. Yeah. L the luxury band Chipotle. Uh-huh. Mhm. Exact. You've heard of it. Yeah. All of them, bro. On marketing, then we all pay the price.
I mean, we have it in our lawn term, but I don't I just think [ __ ] 850 over there is gonna really pay the price. But, you know, it shouldn't be that bad, bro. Shouldn't be that bad. As you know what I'm saying? I just don't We'll see. But, I think Q1 revenue and the guide, that'll probably be how much they get on the clicks and then everything after that.
It'll be dependent upon like as long as Mark Zuckerberg don't spend like a drunken sailor. What's that? Shave with a rusty razor. Shave their belly with a rusty sucker. No. Okay. Anyways, Chad, you only have a one minute. Go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, it's time to wrap it up.
Bring it home. Finalize those plays. Speak now or forever hold your peace. Shares, options, earnings, futures, you name it. Are what are you going to play tomorrow? Friday Junior. You even got Apple earnings after the bell, but you're going to get a little bit of a reaction. You already got Powell. I hope you made your mind up.
I hope you understand the revolving door of opportunity. Don't play yourself. Don't get too emotional. I'm at 850. 10 seconds remaining. Wrap it up and finalizing. Have a wonderful day, baby. But we will be here for the earnings. Let's have a good one. 3 2 1. Drop that delay to horn. Oh, gold still going after the bell.
Yeah, bro. Let me get that delay. GG, bro. What's up, son? Are you kidding me? We did it. We made it. 7 hours in the books. I don't know what meta is going to go to, but I know you made it to the bell, baby. God bless you all, baby. Thank you for your time. I hope you learned something today. It don't matter what happened.
You better learn something. Walk away with the long term. We made it. We made it. And these [ __ ] we bitching. We did it. We made it. And these [ __ ] hating. My creator creating. Did it. We made it. And these [ __ ] hating. I'm singing. I'm praising. My god is amazing. My dreams is accomplished. They're not complaining.
They scheming and blotting, but that did not phase me. Look like I'm homeless. ain't got me no job but my car teach not to judge a lot I don't know but I know some love the money I'm back I ain't sir so Meta platforms hosted by Lizardberg uh what is it revenue 59.89 89. Where's the estimate, dog? Oh, they killed it.
They beat the top end on revenue. EPS or fourth quarter net 22.7. Honestly, I'm going just go to the guide. Oh, I don't have the guide. I forgot. But yeah, they beat on there, but all that's going to matter is there. And then Microsoft, I believe, is out too. And then they started to come down a little bit.
shaved their belly with a rusty razor. Outlook above first quarter above consensus. Ah, yeah, they killed it on that earnings, man. Ad revenue 58 verse 56 revenue beat, EPS beat by 10%. Everything's again, I think the guidance beat, too. I don't know. Microsoft isn't showing up yet. I'm looking for that one as well.
But yeah, capex 115 to 135. Wait a minute. And then full year 162 to one dog. So see if the other guys move off of that. Hold on. So if you start to watch any of the other guys go up, that'll tell you a lot. Ay, let me see that if I have that guide. will give me the capex capex 21.9 that's on the quarter that's the full year I don't it already sounds ugly total ex yeah full year provision tax rate 10% too delivering operating income above 2025 Microsoft EPS Oh, what?
Did Microsoft miss bad? I think that one's out now. How' they do this? Yeah, so far. Yeah, Meta raised it by like 5 to 15 billion. Microsoft didn't come out on that. Microsoft's out, but you have to read it. It hasn't hit easy numbers yet, but Microsoft is out. I saw a EPS number way lower. I don't know if that's actually right.
Net income was 2410. Yeah, 323. I think their estimate was five. Non-diluted 414. But yeah, Microsoft missed on that. Revenue was 81.3. Estimate was 80.28. So they beat on that. Operating income was 38.3. Estimate was 36.5. Again, I just don't think the AI stuff is hitting for it. I don't know where Azer is.
And then remember, they both give it up. Aer was up 39%. What were they expecting for that? Oh, they missed on Azer by point4. So then damn, you have a [ __ ] cloud miss and you had uh just EPS and everything kind of slightly. Revenue did a little bit better. revenue in personal computing was 143 decreased by three.
That's not good. So again, even some of the AI stuff. Let's see what else. Microsoft 365 up 29. That did a little better. Yeah, kind of a dud, bro, on all of them. I think Meta just Meta wait till the guide comes out. But they raised capex by like another 10 to 15 billion. So watch some of these other ones.
Tesla's coming out now. 24.9. Uh they beat by 200 million. I don't know what their uh EPS beat by 5 cents. Uh go check the margin on Tesla. That's all that matters. Okay. Yeah, easy numbers are coming out on Microsoft. They beat, bro, on the revenue, but everything else, but again, they missed by point4 on AER.
You're going to have to wait till the conference call. So again, this is already kind of one standard deviation, but you have to wait till the conference call. Meta's earnings wasn't bad. You have to wait for their guidance as well. But then they also uh they raised capex by 15 billion on the top end, 5 billion on the low end.
That's the problem. Oh, there it is. 535 to 565 verse 51. Yeah. So they raised guidance by 10% almost little bit under and then raised capex by their guide. Literally that one's tough. Meta might hold up still. 670 870. No. Okay. But yeah, Micros I think Microsoft was pretty bad. That's the one that's going to be a little bit weaker.
I'm surprised though the extra capex it didn't hit any of the other companies yet but but Metab has a chance to stay alive but then Microsoft Microsoft they're going to give the guide for Azer and all that Tesla remember you already got your Tesla delivery numbers you just need the margin revenue is 177 let's See, Tesla's flying.
Oh, it did come back off the bottom. 5.9 billion in non-GAAP profit, free cash flow 6.28, 7.5 billion in cash and cash investments. The record Q4 energy deployments gross margin was 16.3. Oh, 20. What? Total gap gross margin was 20.1. No. Habibi adjusted Ibida margin 167. That gap gross margin I think is fire.
Yeah, gap gross margin. They killed it. Adjusted Ibida margin killed it, too. That's it. So, yeah, that's why Tesla's rocketing. They had really good cash and uh literally uh free cash flow, cash from operations were also good, but Tesla's all about the uh that's that margin beat. Like I've been saying all morning, you know, nothing really matters with Tesla but margin.
And they just [ __ ] it up like in a very good again 20% margin. That is their highest gap gross margin in a year. Even adjusted IBIDA, that's their second highest. But you know, again, that was comparing it against the pretty strong comp. And then IBM is out now. Meta's waking up. But yeah, Tesla great margin.
That's it. You could also like if you like the cash flow and everything else, but the I think the real sticking story on that one is margin. IBM's up a little bit. I don't have the guide on IBM. Good job, Elon. Good job. Is it the robots? Whatever it could be the deployment of the energy stuff, too.
And the meta's coming back up. Like I said, their guidance was raised to about the same amount as the other one as capex, but fully year capex went up another 10 bill at the full year. Reality Labs did better. No. Okay. No. Okay. I don't know. Maybe. Yeah. But Meta didn't do bad. Like I said, they still had a chance and they're coming back up infrastructure 19.1.
So yeah, estimate on IBM 191 they did 197 consulting revenue they beat or in line adjusted EPS 450 estimate was 420. I don't have the guide, but yeah, beat on top and bottom on IBM. And then yeah, Tesla's all about the margin, bro. If a Meta Well, there's nothing in the filing for Meta, but we'll see.
They still have a call, but again, everyone's brushing off the spending, and if the, like I said, Q1 guidance, if you beat on that, that's a good sign. Wait till the till the other sympathies start moving. Microsoft's the only weak one. Microsoft has a lot of question marks still. I don't know if that one's going to snap back until the conference call.
You need a really good conference call. Tesla focused on maximum capacity. 700 is one standard. That's crazy considering how it moved ahead of time. But yeah, Meta is starting to go now. Again, I think Tesla's the best one. Tesla to acquire 2 billion of preferred stock. again their their investments went up 7 billion.
I bet you Elon's going to say something about SpaceX. If it could hold up on that, it might do very well. If Elon pumps the SpaceX like ownership and how he wants to do that, that might be good. He spent 5 billion more pretty much. They raised the capex guide on Meta and they're getting but then they raised the guidance.
So, people are overlooking it, but that first knee-jerk reaction to Mark Zuckerberg spending was not good as always. Again, the numbers beat though. So they beat on this quarter. They beat the top end of guidance and then they raised the guide, too. So it started bouncing. Like I said, it was right here when I was saying the guide came in.
And once the guide hit, people started uh that that could follow through. Wait till their conference call. They could still [ __ ] it up with the with the spending, but you got a couple of AI pumps in that statement as well, too. But other than that, it's uh I think Microsoft's the only weak one. I think Elon Tesla was actually really great, man.
I think it I think Tesla was phenomenal, dude. That was a 20% gross margin is crazy. Even the adjusted Ebida margin was great, too. Both uh both GAAP and non-GAAP or GAP and adjusted were [ __ ] phenomenal. So, I think that's the only thing that mattered. Tesla earnings, you already knew the deliveries.
You knew everything else. All you found out was he had more cash flow, more investment, and then a way better margin. So, yeah, there's you're getting a one standard on there. That's kind of crazy. 670 to 900. Yeah, it's already 20 bucks. So, it's like 5.1. You need a little bit more. It'll be like 704 or something.
That might get you there. Or 707, but not. Yeah, Microsoft was the shitty one, bro. Shave thy belly with a rusty razor. No, I'm sorry. I don't know. Microsoft wants to just tag along, but that that one wait till the conference call. They don't give Azer guidance till then, but everywhere you could have been soft, they were [ __ ] soft.
That's the only thing I don't like about Microsoft. But yeah, now the scalers are starting to go up. IBM did good. Now they're starting to go. That was the one I wanted for the front run, but let's see the follow through. If they really start hyping it up there, that could go that's going to be at an all-time high.
All right, Chattonia. I think I don't think I'm going to stay for the conference calls. I think, you know, Microsoft is the only question mark. The IBMs and other ones, they're going to do their thing. Meta, you still Meta could end up cucking if the conference call is not good. And I think Tesla was the best one out of all of those, bro.
Would you look at that? Would you look at that? All right, let me get you. Let me get you a track, bro. Launcher. Launcher. Hey, this [ __ ] is [ __ ] made a lot of money. Hard not to be cocky, but I work to get here. My name isn't Bry. I am 5'6, but I still call her shotty. I catch the dip. I do not catch a body.
If the money quick, I will probably be cautious. You lever too much. Shift the move make you nauseous. Difference between a rock and diamond is flawless. You don't save money. I find that appalling. Never been in battle, but I got a war chest. I believe in God. I don't make poor bets. Ask Pascal the wager to tell you I'm legit.
Sometimes you feed the haters cuz the haters make you rich on everything. My words could change your life. How you so stubborn when you never got it right. Admitting that you wrong is the hardest thing to fight, but it's a pretty deep hole if you think dark's light. Save time. Let's get right into it.
It's still the truth even if I am a hypocrite. Blood on the hands but they tell you that they innocent. That's why I don't act. I'm just waiting on my sentences. So judge that balance sheet by they really not black. They don't really got cash. If you don't know accounting, you won't laugh at that. They can't match my swag intellectual and I bought some property.
I told them be the self but some of them just copy me. I'm really not mad. I enjoy all types of comedy even if it's irony. How yall still trying me? That sounds tiring. Pull up in a brand new damn that's inspiring. Stand your ground but understand that I'm firing you grinder guys. I'm the type who not retiring.
I cover a [ __ ] like indifference. You're a hoe. That's an inference. Is it refusal or just ignorance? I'm going pray for your deliverance. Gang way. My launcher is my slang. You buying m seven but I bought it when it's f. You don't really got the juice. I don't even think you tame. How you going to call it change when you in black think the same?
really fell from misdirection. I really hope that you're reflecting but you don't want to talk about it. Kind of sound like Ivormect. Yikes. Shouldn't say that Bible where I lay at. Know they getting tribal but survival how I play that. Do you know the difference between the bands in a Mayback? You can say the same about this life cuz we the same man.
That's a lesson very least the bar. I have never golf but I know they subpar. A lot of people taught that don't mean they got the cards. Your head got to be strong if the head is always hard. Damn like that. Never had a loss that I didn't get back. 145 5x quick math. I'm just talking minimums a different blackjack.
But I learned waited for my turn, bro. You would think it's crypto the way they try to burn though. They work but not pay. They ain't on a furlow. I called it communion before I called it Marlo. Story of my life. I can write a book, but I rather show you live. So let it ride my turn. Longterm long term.
Am I mad or just passionate? Are you fam or just acting it? I know I talk a lot but I always keep passing it. Got to keep it in the roto. We are not the same. Like rice isn't risoto. All the real ones know it's always no photos. Hit the market crash. Stop packing. I'm the goto. Just because you know me that don't mean that I'mma know you know talks non-stop.
I am really him. If your name not B, we ain't really friends. Franklin at the end. If you ain't getting that. I think all y'all do sedatives or worse. I hope it's not hereditative. You ride the wave, but I invented it. I saved and then I started lending it. Make trades and I put it to another [ __ ] That's a formula I did my whole life.
My bro knew I was quick, so he taught me how to fight. Said you being followed if they take three rights. If they don't want your chain, then they want your life. So I go and share both of those. If you kill me or you rob me. Either way, the money overflows. All about a dollar. You can tell my heart is really cold.
Something in my head cuz my soul is getting really old. Don't let a gamble tie your mind up. Nah, don't let a [ __ ] [ __ ] your life up. It's true. Nothing good happens at the night, bro. Money is fun, son. I hope you made your mind up. Tell me with the line. Show me where you find her. You can have a roll.
It don't matter when your time up. Handed in my Bible when he asked for a light, bro. We are not the same. Like a lion's not a tiger. The difference is the difference. Ask my old [ __ ] [ __ ] Ask my new [ __ ] Ask the YouTube in the Twitch. From the hills to the trench in the game to the bench. The difference make the man.
You can have a rolly. It don't matter when your time up. Handed him a Bible when he asked for a light. Bro, the difference is the difference. Oh, IBM is hitting. Wow. All right, Chattonia. That's all. That's all. I'm going to go try on my grill. We'll see what these conference calls bring. You got a couple of other little scragglers out there.
Should be a good vibe. That's it. As long as Microsoft don't go any more lower than that 6%. That was the one standard deviation. I think market could absorb it with a good Tessy and a good Meta. But then again, these conference calls might screw up everything. They might screw up everything. I don't know.
So, we're going to find out. And then I'll see you tonight. I don't know. It's a Wednesday. We might not have a a watch list. Tomorrow, Friday Junior, we'll have a watch list. So, I think tonight I'm gonna be getting my grill fitted. Post a pick with your grill on. I don't know. I think I've only posted a pic once of my teeth and it was actually my my girl's dog.
I posted his teeth and some of you thought I I had canines. So, I I don't know if I'm comfortable posting my teeth. You know that. That's I kind of want to give the the grill away cuz I already lost it. That's what I'm saying. In the last couple years, I already lost it. I already figured I didn't have it.
So, I'm down. You guys want to make a challenge this year? We could we could talk about it tomorrow and Friday, but why don't we why don't we have a discussion? What What would be a fair way to give the grill away? I'm going to melt it. I want to give you the grill, but I feel like I have to melt it down.
I don't know how I feel about giving you my my exact tooth imprint. I don't know what some of y'all are going to do with it. I don't know. Some of y'all witches, y'all going to be like, "It's voodoo. It's voodoo. I will copy his biometrics. I will get into your safe now. I have your lower bottom teeth, son." All right.
So, I don't I'm a very paranoid individual. Uh but yeah, I can melt it down. You'll probably get you'll get at least a 3/4 of an ounce, I assume. It's uh you know, a 1 oz went into it, but that paid for the the molding fee, too, at the time. But it's mostly gold and then there's a little bit of copper in it.
Yeah, DNA. I'm gonna piss on it then before Wait, that's still my DNA. Never mind. I just I'm See, I have a bad idea to in the in the name of deterrence. But yeah, man. Best long-term under 30K. We could do that. Maybe best long-term plus best Bible streak. Maybe best long-term plus best house. Maybe you got to complete a course.
You got to complete the economic lessons that see I don't know. Get some ideas for me. But I'm kind of down to give this [ __ ] away, bro. I think it's a very cool cult heirloom. You know, this would if we did that little those boxes I put I would have if but I didn't know if I had this then. Now I do.
I can't I found it pretty easily though. I just had to look. So, we'll see, man. But either way, Chad, God bless you. Thank you for your time today. I hope you have fun. And I hope you learned it. I hope you didn't shed too much of a tear over your boy Powell. You know what I'm saying? Pow pow. His last rate cut, man.
So, thank you for your time. I hope you have a good one. I'll see you guys tomorrow morning. Friday. I'll see you on Friday, Junior. I like that. He said, "I'll see you Friday, Junior." I I feel you, bro. Get some good rest tonight. Be safe. Be easy. And like I told y'all, man, I don't know. The The Lord is with you, and I hope you create good habits.
That's really what it comes down to, man. Get in the habit of of Can you You guys want to do it? Do you want to Do you want to meditate on it with me for a second for real? I need you to get into the habit of understanding the revolving door of opportunity. Do you understand me, motherfer? I've said this felo so many times.
You know what I'm saying? I've given you this felo so many times about the circle, about the cycle, but for real, bro. The revolving door of opportunity. Do you not understand it? It just keeps spinning. It's going. That's it, man. I don't know if you maybe maybe you just had opportunity. Maybe you missed it.
Maybe it's been a while, but it's going to come back every time, dog. Every time. Every time. So, believe me, man. Your opportunities are are always going to be fleeting. The success is never safe. It comes and goes. But that's a good thing, bro. That's why that's that's what the Lord is fair. The rain shines on the just and unjust alike.
The rain shines, the rain pours. The sun shines, too. I'm just saying, man. So, for real, you should think about that. And that's why get into the habit. Understand the habit. Redeem your time. Well, you believe that the Lord redeemed you, why don't you redeem your time? That's a habit. The habits are either going to steal or add to your life.
That's it. Straight up. I wish it was I wish it was different, but it is what it is, Doc. It is what it is. And just again that's if you ever feel you know God I love I love Psalms you know that he said I he said it yesterday and I was like you know it's just a book of Psalms right you know Psalms is just a bunch of tracks it's just a bunch of bangers and he always be making these emo tracks David like Lord where are you Lord I don't see you Lord I don't feel you Lord my arms are tired where are you but I will Remember, I will remember.
I will thank you for what you have done. Are you You think he's just making an emo track, dog? He's telling you the answer. I'm telling you the answer. He told me the answer. And he David, you could get the same. It's the same source. Do you understand? So, don't forget. Don't forget. That's what you know why that's the revolving door of opport.
Y'all don't stop playing with me. Why you acting like you ain't? So, Chad, have a wonderful day. God bless all of you. Thank you for your time. And don't forget why we're here, baby. Why we keep going. Why that faith, hope, and love ain't ever going out of style. And why you will remember, brother. You will remember.
And why the Lord is with you. And that's why your habits will be redeemed for good, brother. Amen. Why, baby? Why? Finger to the sky, baby. To God be the glory and through the grace of God alone. Amen. Amen. Chatonia, I hope you have a good one, man. I'm out, bro. I'm out. Where is this track? I'm trying to get you.
Oh yeah, there it is. I got you. Peace, bro. I told you it was a cold. Well, you know, praise God, nephew, first and foremost, all the time. Whip dirty hair a mess. I do not care. Told them all the truth. They respond like it's not there. Still, I do not care. I don't think they see it. Looking for the money, they looking for disagreement.
Hit by hit, it's brick by brick. They should have made a move, but they rather move their lips. I just need four quarters. It don't have to make sense. Yeah, I wake up every morning like I still pay the rent. That's early. Get your cake up. Don't play wait up. Got to hit the layups. If you really got the mission, you don't even got to say it.
You could talk it or you live it. Only one of them is paying. I respect the only fans more than the hater. Tell you got time to talk [ __ ] but no paper. Bro, you not hard. You got trouble trying to wake up. Bunch of wicked service always telling you to save it. Grateful that ho say it's better if you waste it.
Everybody's cooking but success is always tasted. Why you keep on looking if you tell me that you hate it. Why you keep on looking? I'mma go and [ __ ] take it. Now you know exactly why I would call them cucks. I just made another stalker and I made a million bucks. You don't got to give me star. I just bought myself a truck and another another C.
So I pull my fingers up. I want your money, they will lie for that [ __ ] We want the truth, we will die for that [ __ ] You ain't right, you ain't buy on the dip. So don't ask me if it's time right after I doubled it. A fake [ __ ] never got along with me. Can long form, not authenticly. Can't top it's time to get busy.
Bottom tick top ticks a fl. Tell a [ __ ] I know a bit about a slow jam, but you ain't in the whip. Why you telling me to slow down? Worry about your [ __ ] I'll do the same. Can I go now? I'm just playing. Don't ask permission from these hoes now. Go and tell the hotel. Not afraid to throw down. Brought God to the showdown.
He told me to bring no round. So if you kill me or I kill you, that just means it's his plan. I am scared of myself. I'm not scared of a stand. This my life. Grateful. You a [ __ ] I don't have to use. They tell me sorry, but also knew I forgive them though. Reminds me of the times when I knew I was spiritual.
Too afraid to say that I believe in Christ. I knew I found a treasure but was scared to lose my life. Ironically, I do that every single time. I'm right. They warned and we ignore until we feel it. That's life. A liar always make you think twice. Liar call it worthless. Then he brag about the price.
Born name certain found thing called the dice. He could do anything, even catch a knife. He came up with the plan. It'll work and do it right. His diligence was due when it stops roll tight. Plan was all perfect. Success was in sight. He was ready for the day, but he died that
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