저자: JeromePowell관련라이브방송진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
증시는 빅테크 주도로 대형주 중심 상승세. S&P500은 신고가 1% 이내, 나스닥100은 신고가 경신. 이번 주 이벤트(관세·지출법안·Powell 발언)를 앞두고 7월 계절성 기대. 일본은 엔화 약세로 관세 충격 흡수 중이라 인플레 우려는 낮다고 봄. 방송 중 Trump NATO 발언, 이란 시설 공격 논란 언급. 결론적으로 과거의 악재 후 회복 패턴 반복 가능성.
다듬은 글
. The rally continues. So, there really wasn't much. It was actually a very quiet day uh overnight. You know, you didn't wake up to any random developments like you have for the last couple of weeks. You're holding it up within 1% of a new high on the S&P 500. NASDAQ 100 has already set a new record and the animal spirits are alive.
you're going to you're going to hear him say that. But long story short, we get Jerome Powell all day and then it's just going to be about melting and moving until you get bad news or we keep going into July and remember that is where you start to get all of your events. You know, we have the events from reciprocals to the spending bill to meetings and other stuff from Russia, Ukraine, more power and Fed the summer.
So yeah, get ready. And then July seasonality, uh, we talked about it a lot on the watch list last night if you didn't get that. So either way, should be a good one. I I'm not expecting much. You know, we've talked about this summer session. It could be slow, but that doesn't mean you don't go anywhere.
And just keep in mind, like yesterday, it was a slow grind up. You get what I'm saying? Like you moved and you moved up and you closed at the high. It was 1%. It wasn't small, but like dude, you spent like 7 hours doing that. So keep that in mind today. We'll look for velocity. So, I don't it doesn't have to be low velocity, but if it is, I hope you guys are all prepared for that.
So, let's have a good day, baby. Call out any news. You need anything from me, you let me know. And we got about one minute. I kind of need to go to the party, but I guess we could hold it. All right, man. All right. Yeah, they are about to inject trillions. So, we don't know how it's going to get spent though.
We have a general idea. They've put a a couple of changes, but I want to see like, you know, to give you a good example like Bill P. You, if you follow him on Twitter, he's always complaining about uh Mr. Powell and other things and he's talking about a lot of stuff like I want to see what type of money goes to the FHA.
I want to see what type of money do they actually have programs that is going to get earmarked for dollars that could affect real estate. Are they going to have targeted tax cuts that will help and assist more or less demand for real estate? And then again, we even talked about it, you know, rate cuts that that creeped up today.
So if Powell does sound bullish, keep that in mind. But 5 seconds, baby. Four, three, two, one. Round one, fight. All right. What's that? Oh, yeah. Medical devices. All right. Okay. And then coin FedEx both side FedEx moves. FedEx was pricing in seven. Uh but actually some of the Fed the FedEx downsides are are holding.
Both the chains are open though. So it is ready to go. Netflix 52- week high. So again, you're going to have some names like Meta is already near there. A couple like Apple have already lagged. And then again, like I told you here in the morning, watch Staples. So, they haven't woken up yet. That might be a July thing, but either way, yeah, UPS no reaction again.
Chips are looking good, too. The video is near that 150. Okay, Uber again. Remember, you had the Whimo Atlanta stuff yesterday. Yeah, Nibbus and Cororeweave. Oh, excuse me. Oh, they woke up very aggressive today. Apple Big Pop. Yeah, they did lag yesterday. A lot. Oh, I'm business. 20 of them. I got the hiccups.
Oh. Oh my goodness, dude. Good morning. Oh yeah. Core weave on the high. Oh my gosh. Yeah, I have hiccups all of a sudden. Mhm. I'm almost 20 of them. I can't even say 20 without hiccup ink. SMCI. Yeah. I don't know why Tesla I mean Tesla's only down by three, but remember yesterday it did dump. Yeah, QuantumCape.
So wait, remember is QuantumCape a battery? This has nothing to do with quantum, right? But again, they had something uh some news about putting a product into production today. Oh my goodness. Circle going again. Crypto and coin. Good sentiment sucks, bro. 20% drop. You didn't get anything off of the puts yesterday.
They're the same price. Yeah, it's battery, right? And then Google on the high uh late stage yesterday that started to wake up. Mhm. Lend financials. Then you got Oracle. Pretty decent candle. $2. No. Yeah. Well, yeah. Oracle just moved like 1% right there. Bottom right. Hims is going up. Again, Google.
NASDAQ's up half a percent. Russell is down. SPY is up by 0.1. I don't know where Dow or Equal Weight is at. Let's get an idea. XLP dumping. Yep. So damn you hit 6108. So again 6117 but really like 6125 6127 I believe that is the price. Oil is up on the day but still below 70 NVO flushing. Okay equal weight equal weight is down half a percent.
So yeah you are being led uh primarily by your big tech today. Again, I think chips, you got Google and a couple of others, but equal weight's clobbered, Russell's down, NASDAQ's up half a percent, SPY's barely green. So, again, you're holding up the yesterday and you just no no real developments, but yeah, you're only being held up by like the mega caps right now.
I'll get you a breakdown in a little. JP Morgan hits market with largest active ETF launch in his history anchored by two billion institutional client. Good morning. What up Mr. Garcia? How you living? And then there's Nvidia. So Nvidia, Google, all of that. Hold my breath. I'd rather hold my longterm.
You know what I'm saying? Everything else we don't. That's it. But when it the long term, I'mma hold that. I've been trying I've been trying to tell them, bro. I've been trying to tell them. Yeah, Zoom again. There was a couple of earnings today. Uh who who was it? Yeah, like GIS and then I think Rubric was buying.
Good morning you guys. How y'all doing? Yeah, remember you guys are asking me about General Mills. They didn't do that bad, but people were just talking [ __ ] on the cereal. Tesla low, Apple high. So, yeah, bro, big tech is leading today. So, again, like we talked about, you're still kind of advancing.
ULY, that thing's up 94% breaking out. Now, you got AMD. You guys saw that one the other other day. But yeah, bro, this is just big tech leading you up right now. And then again, gold General Mills. Uh people were talking about the uh sugary cereals not catching a bid. Boeing on the high. Visa and Mastercard now too.
Wait, I thought Boeing was on the high. Still low. Remember Abbott in those devices from yesterday? RFK comments. Nibbus on the low now. J and Jay starting to move up. Google again. All right. Apple remember Apple was lagging. So what's going to happen I think till like Euro close and then remember we are going to have Powell here in a second but pretty much like until Euro close or even like 30 minutes is going to get led by big tech and then after after Euro closed just be on the lookout to whether or not it's big tech or if everything broadens out.
So now oil's moving up. It was already up half a percent, but that is starting to climb already. And then we got POW in about 20 minutes, so not bad. Health at your fingertips. There's a what's it called? A health meeting. Google, dude. My goodness, bro. Coin got a price target for $500. So, the same analyst price target was at $310 and they upgraded it to 510 today.
So, like I said, I like Coinbase a lot, like as a consumer product. I've always liked it. I mean, that's how I bought Bitcoin, you know, and it's like I I like what they're doing. I mean, I like what they're doing in the whole space. I think they're tied in with the institutions as well, but I I don't like the price.
So, you know, we have it in the long term. It's working. It's very, very volatile. If it ever comes down at like a, you know, there was a time you could have got it very cheap. I like it. But other than that, I think we just watch it. Where is it? They don't have the Senate thing up yet, so I'm looking for that.
And Zeni, let's see, baby. Not bad. Oh, dude. Yesterday, man, when we talked about European, just watch the currency. I I can't believe it broke out. So, that might even be one of our uh next levels that we're going to have to deal with at some point. Got you a gifted mama. Shout out on more business.
Amen. Netanyahu, US attack on Iran destroyed the facility. You guys see that? Or every tell me why Associated Press and CNN are like, "You didn't blow it up." They're like, "I don't It was It's the funniest back and forth. We blew it up. You guys didn't blow it up. You actually No, the Iranians said you didn't.
We blew it up. Stop lying. You're lying, Donald. We didn't blow We blew it up. So, yeah. Nvo. I It could be all the drama with Uber. I don't know. But AMD ripping right now. Let me check NVO for you. Oh, yeah. NVO should be doing good. It just had all of that at 80. But now like I'm telling you the eur the euro and all these other currencies are doing very very good.
Uh but then it could be the uh the hymn stuff but yeah there was a takeaway. No there's like some event but tech that was very very small. So yeah I don't think there's anything on NVL. It was just down. Yeah. No news on the day. IBM 52- week high. Was there a Spanish health probe? May have been earlier, but I don't see it as like a breaking thing.
Yeah, there is under investigation by health over its website communications on the weight loss drug and Spanish health ministry. Uh, wait, it ordered something under probe over advertising. Yeah. No, that's it. It's weird. You have to like search. It doesn't show up as like breaking, but that that is true.
Yeah. And then Hims, they just said they're still selling the [ __ ] even if they don't have a deal. Yeah. Him again. Hims was down 30 the other day. Amber on the high. You guys remember that one? You had the offer. Trump is live. He was live in the morning, too. Oh yeah, Trump is about to give the NATO summit remarks.
Oh [ __ ] So yeah, get watch LMT, RTX, all of those defensives will be active again. Uh the Europeans just committed 5% of GDP. That's huge. They've never they haven't done anything like that since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Actually, I don't even think they ever did. So yeah, that is uh so watch defensives.
He's probably going to applaud that, talk a little [ __ ] and then yeah, but I don't think it'll cost too much unless he starts talking deals and deadlines. But yeah, he already gave them at 9. So there might be this might either be something else or it's older. But there is there's a few feeds that are setting up for him to go live right now.
So there might have been stuff earlier, but there is literally uh there is a NATO press conference scheduled. Where is it? I'm trying to find your boy. So, yeah, pal should be up 17 minutes, but they don't see it. Maybe he'll come on a little later. Bloomberg releases new salt cap. Nice. So, that's crazy though again.
But Trump is giving him salt so that he could get the rest of it. But yeah, that's bullish. I love salt. You guys know that. I love salt deductions as someone who lives in a liberal state. Oh, dude, I love it. That's why all these liberals, bro, they love salt because then that way you get to live in Cali and New York and you get to live in these liberal places and then you could write off a whole [ __ ] income for no damn reason.
So, yeah, the salt deductions are are very uh highly soughta in these high tax states, but they're expensive. They have Palanter, Broadcom, INSM, high ticker just running, bro. But look at just like yesterday. Remember how many times you saw the high ticker like go crazy and then the equities barely would move.
But you are one point within the high. What happens? We go up till 4th of July and back to square one. What do you mean? I just think at this point you're probably going to melt up until there's bad news. That's it. It's what you've been doing. Like you guys don't realize we've been we were we started going up.
You hit a high and then bad news. And then you come down, freak out depending on how much you believe it or how much they propagandize it. Bad news. And then you get over it. It takes a week, a month, two months, then you go right back to melting up. And then here we are now. You got the bad news from the war out the way.
People are not worried about tariffs in the same way. Now even the spending bill, you're getting all of these things. Then you're worried about Trump and Powell. You're all you can name it. But all of these are going away and the market has been exposed to it now. So yeah, now you get to uh just you're within 1% of highs.
I wouldn't be surprised if we hit it. But then again, eventually you're going to have a bad headline, whether it's Trump trade, uh, a black swan, an external event, who knows what it is. And then we're going to keep rinsing and repeating that until we get a structural change, until Powell changes rates, until the economy actually shifts.
Uh, or until maybe maybe this spending bill that that might be a structural shift. You know what I'm saying? You're worried. I was worried about Japan for a little bit, but then I showed this yesterday. I'm kind of not worried about Japan. Obviously, you know, their little [ __ ] financial experiment over the last couple of decades is worrisome, but in a weird way, bro.
Like, their currency is helping. It's so [ __ ] weird, dude. So, listen what I showed yesterday. All of you should pay attention. Bloomberg does not want you to see this. I I I promise you because they would have showed you by now. So I challenge you Bloomberg to go make a segment on this and explain this to your viewers.
Uh because a I said this yesterday on the watch list, a lot of people and a lot of whether it's willful or just pure ignorance, a lot of people are ignorant towards the tariff impact after currency effect. And what I'm trying to tell you is that like Japan's like inflation and then they're, you know, the weakening of the currency and and all of that and they're they're trying to get that inflation, right?
Yeah, bro. Think about it. You're worried about terrorists, all of that. Ever since Donald Trump won, all of these currencies front ran so heavy. And yeah, it doesn't really matter what happens with the tariffs to a degree. And again, this is one of those things where a lot of people were worried about tariffs couple 6 months later now it it hasn't materialized.
But this is from the Bank of Japan. So ever since Donald Trump announced tariffs, there is many industries and products on a currency adjusted basis that have plummeted in terms of export prices. So literally passenger cars exported to the United States have dropped the most in five years on a currency basis in Japan.
It's crazy. So again, uh there's multiple of these charts. But yeah, that's the the whole idea is that like currency. So that's why I'm saying you're asking if I'm scared of Japan in a weird way. I think Japan is kind of absorbing uh you know the the dollar [ __ ] and whatever we got with tariffs because it is it is causing certain effects and I do think you could get a little bit of inflation eventually but the more and more we see stuff like that then that that's going to go out the window and and nothing's materialized.
Uh Nvidia on the high and bonds starting to go now. Yeah, I did see Tesla on the low. It's weird. I feel like the last like month or two, the days that Tesla does good, everyone does bad. And then the days that everyone does good, Tesla does bad. German automakers considering autonomous tech for military use.
I don't even know what that means. Well, devaluation or devaluation of the dollar and now it's just easier to get their hands on dollar. So prices might increase but it it's not because of tariffs as much as it be weaker dollar or again depending import or export weaker or stronger. It just all depends.
But the fact is that the currencies have moved so much already that it's like that is, you know, to think to to live in a world where you're scared of or all all focusing on tariffs but not the currency effect that that's it would it doesn't make sense to be scared. It would be like being scared of a plane crashing that hasn't taken off yet.
You know what I'm saying? You're on the ground still. Like tariffs are important and they play their role, but if the currencies are moving 10, 20, 30%. What good is policy if everything's balancing out? You know, this is this is IP 101. This is what happened with the East Asian financial crisis and other times even like Breton Woods leading into it when other when we would move and other countries would move too.
It didn't change anything. Is there a Nvidia conference today? I probably could, but yeah, Spy just dumped there for like I told you guys, remember said wait till like Euro closer. Give it a couple of hours. We want to see is big tech going to hold or not. Cuz like I was telling you in the morning, everything was already weak.
It was being held up by mega caps. So now we're coming down. This is probably where everything comes down. or you're going to watch them rotate a little bit and then we see if everything balances out or if it's going to be tech dominance or we wait until again Powell or the bond auction. Fed Collins expect to be appropriate to lower rates later this year but much depends on tariffs.
Yeah, bro. Tesla's getting mollywapped. I mean, there was numbers on uh European registrations today that dropped, but yeah, I don't see anything else. The intelligent I see. No, they're just all the mainstream media talking [ __ ] on the attack. So, first they talked [ __ ] on Trump attacking and then they're like, "You didn't even attack it." Good.
But yeah, that's the only headline I see. Again, bonds haven't done the fear move. You did have oil going up just a second ago. Yeah, it came down. Nectar that is on 52- week high. Trump should be at the UN. Yeah, I had the video up. Yeah, they're waiting for Trump right now. RTX on the low. Maybe this is a front run, bro.
Yeah. So, Trump is about to talk. I mean, this is the video. You can tell by how it packed the crowd is sap. T-Mobile on the high and then I know then T-Mobile uh someone talked about it that like you know that like satellite number they came out with the other day. It's because they're giving it away for free.
So, they were touting satellite numbers, but then it's pretty much they just give it away to people who have certain plans. Coin dropping now. Still up three. eBay on the high. Low ticker is taking over. I mean, we have five minutes to drop in here. We are awaiting Trump. You got Fed Collins talking now.
And then, yeah, no other data, but you do have a bond auction. And then we have Powell. They're all coughing in the background. Everyone's waiting. So, like I said, I'd watch defensives, but then other than that, you're not going to get I mean, again, let me check. I don't think we have any data, no nothing.
Uh, you'll get new home. No. Yeah, new home sales. And those have been kind of hot. New home sales should do good. Yeah, remember last time new home sales rocketed. Rumble CEO tweet Zalinski had long productive meeting with Trump says he discussed with Trump how to achieve ceasefire and real peace. Interest.
So Zalinski frontr running Trump right now. You have a Zalinski comment about meeting with Trump. Rumble coming out with shorts. All right, man. And then again, Powell is going to be we're going to juggle a little bit. So Powell starts in about five minutes, but you know, not much is going to come from it.
And then we are going to listen to your boy Trump at the same time. Wait, what? I think what the fake news wrote and it was CNN. who was a New York Times and they're both uh disgusting disgusting really horrible groups of people. Uh the pilots did an unbelievable job like nobody's ever seen. They hit the old one.
You see where the I guess you probably look they I think this was the one from the wound is on the earth. There's one of him talking right now in front of the NATO background. and they should be admired and respected for what they did and the fake news uh in order to try and hit me the fake news made them look bad but now they look really good again.
So that was the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission and it was also about the High Commission of Iran just said it was totally demolished. long term. We'll go to verify. Yeah, I guess that was that wasn't it. Hey, Spy came back. SMCI, bro. Just straight up. It's been doing that. Oh, no. Adabul. Well, thank you very much.
This has been an honor. All righty. It was a fairly long trip, but worth it. All righty. On the wall, uly was the runner from earlier. Healthcare going up. Listen to a lot of wonderful speeches from the heads of a lot of wonderful countries. But I want to thank you for joining us at the conclusion of a highly productive NATO summit in the Netherlands.
want to thank them for the royal treatment they've given us. Couldn't couldn't have been nicer and uh it's a beautiful country. Really a beautiful country coming in. I saw the most beautiful trees. In fact, I want to bring some back with me. I want to also thank I had uh I had breakfast this morning with the king and queen and their incredible people.
Uh I called I said your central casting beautiful people great people big beautiful heart and uh I enjoyed that and also uh NATO Secretary General Mark Roa who's been terrific he's been a friend of mine used to be right here running this wonderful country now he's the NATO secretary general is doing a fantastic job and the prime minister we appreciate everything you've done and as you know last weekend, the United States successfully carried out a massive precision strike on Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities and it was very, very successful.
It was called obliteration. No other military on earth could have done it. And now this incredible exercise of American strength has paved the way for peace with a historic ceasefire agreement late Monday. And uh we call it the 12-day war. Spoke to a few people. I guess that just sounded like the right the right name.
It was a 12-day war. And we think it's over. I don't think they're going to be going back at each other. I don't think so. Not only have we dealt decisively with the critical HSBC and new home sales came in light 623 verse 693 surprising still elevated but it did come in lower to do the political thing but we've also reasserted the credibility of very low which is like no other the people at NATO yeah bro pivoted never been anything you know I rebuilt the entire military during my first term And uh we have a great military.
Yeah. The lowest one of what? Got to know the good ones and the bad ones. We kept the good. Yeah. Home sales w cuz remember dude that rocketed up. Yeah. It got plummeted and also had kind of odd for me. I'm pretty sure discussions with the king and the queen. I guess in 2024 you had your drop the prime minister but it's even lower than that discussions.
Very knowledgeable people. Major focus of our conversations at the summit was the need MSTR SMCI. Again, crypto's been up all day. Defense of Europe. Yeah, bro. SMCI just killing it. Financial burden. As you know, it was 2% and we got it up to 5%. And they said, couple of them came up to me, one in particular said, "Sir, we've been trying to get it up to 3% for 20 years and we haven't been able." And you got it up to 5%.
So they're going to be most of them I guess almost all of them are going to be contributing now 5% the number that uh people are surprised at but you need it today. The United States accounts for twothirds of all NATO defense spending since I began pushing for additional commitments in 2017. Believe it or not our allies have increased spending by $700 billion.
Uh I said to people you don't have any money and a lot of them weren't paying. And so I started the process and I picked it up as soon as I got back, which is six months ago. And following my election last November, almost all have accelerated plans to reach the 2% 3% 4% and then ultimately very quickly 5% and uh all of this is going to be done very quickly, almost immediately.
You probably know this as well as I do. I'm sure they've been talking about it's really been a big focus. Tesla in a very historic mile dramatically increase their defense spending. It looks like it's nice but it's just still dropping something that no one really thought possible and they said you I don't know why the doubt I did it but I think I did no idea.
This will be known as the HEG defense commitment, which is pretty good, pretty appropriate. When the allies reach this number, it will add more than1 trillion dollars a year. Think of that 1 trillion per year. Okay, Powell is live. It has began. This is a monument. Little surprise when we were talking on Monday, but it's a monumental win for the United States because we were carrying much more than our fair share.
Was quite unfair actually. But this is a big one for Europe and for actually western civilization. For years, past administrations failed to get most allies to contribute uh even the 2%. I remember when I came here we had four countries that were up to 2% and uh I remember Poland was there a couple of them were there and but most of them were we had 28 at the time as you know it's increased a little bit and uh they've agreed now to more than double their budgets in all cases and Europe stepping up to take more responsibility for its security will help prevent future disasters like the horrible situation with Russia and Ukraine and hopefully we're going to get that solved.
Last week they lost 7,000 soldiers, mostly soldiers, but they're also getting hit in Kiev. They're getting hit in some of the towns also. Uh, and that means life life is disappearing also in the cities and towns. Should have never happened. Would have never happened if I was president. I said it a thousand times and it never did happen.
It's never even thought about. But it's vital that this additional money be spent on very serious military hardware, not bureaucracy. And uh hopefully that hardware is going to be made in America because we have the best hardware in the world. You saw that where 14 missiles were shot at us the other day.
And uh they were very nice. They gave us warning. They said, "We're going to shoot them. Is 1:00 okay?" They said, "It's fine." And everybody was emptied off the base so they couldn't get hurt except for the gunners. They call them the gunners. And uh out of 14 high-end missiles that were shot at the base in Qar, all 14, as you know, were shot down by our equipment.
Amazing stuff. Amazing that they can do. It's like shooting a bullet with a bullet. It's the same thing if you think about it. 14 out of 14. And they were they weren't even that surprised. I said, "Do you do that well often?" They say, "We pretty much do, sir." The Ukraine crisis has also highlighted the urgency of rebuilding our defense industrial base, both in the United States and among the allied nations.
We cannot afford to be dependent on foreign adversaries for critical minerals. And as you know, we made a deal with Ukraine to take a vast amount of the land they have for minerals we needed. And once again, I want to thank all of the people in the Netherlands. Incredible people. It's a great place.
And all of the NATO allies for the tremendous summit that we just had. Uh a letter just came in and uh a statement came in from the Atomic Energy Commission of Israel. And I just wanted this is an official letter and they're very serious people. As you know, the devastating US strike on Fortoo destroyed the site's critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility totally inoperable.
It was devastated. We assess that the American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities has set back Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons for many years to come. this achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material which it won't. Uh it's so so sad that that whole thing had to go but I just I just want to thank our pilots.
You know they were maligned and treated very bad demeaned by fake news CNN which is back there believe it or not wasting time wasting nobody's watching them so they're just wasting a lot of time wasting my time. And the New York Times, they put out a story that, well, maybe they were hit, but it wasn't bad.
Well, it was so bad that they ended the war. It ended the war. Somebody said in a certain way, you know, that it was so devastating. Actually, if you look at Hiroshima, if you look at Nagasaki, you know, that ended a war too. This ended a war in a different way, but it was so devastating. Also, they have Nagasaki, Alexi, Have you ever tried saki spokesman?
This is well you know Nagasaki says it's near it's similar it's similar it's nuclear were very badly damaged by Nagasaki the American strike so what bothered these Obama was put out by the New York Times failing I call it the failing New York Times because it's doing terribly without me it would be doing no business at all but uh and by fake news CNN and MSDNC all of these terrible people, you know, they have no credibility.
You know, when I started, they were at 94% credibility, the media, and now it's at 16%. And I'm very proud of it because I've exposed it for what it is. But when I uh when I saw them starting to question the the caliber of the attack, was it bad? Well, it was really bad. It was devastated. They were obliterated.
Fact, you can't get into the tunnels. They just put that over. They just came out. They can't There's nothing. There's no way you can even get down. The whole thing is collapsed in a disaster. And I think all of the nuclear stuff is down there because it's very hard to remove and we did it very quickly.
When they heard we were coming, it was, you know, you can't move it. Very hard, very dangerous actually to move to. And they also knew we were coming. So I don't think too many people want to be down there knowing we're coming with the bunker busters as we call them. We're the only ones that have them.
We have the best equipment, best nuclear equipment, and we have the best equipment in the world. And by the way, uh we can't forget our submarine, which was out there, submarines actually, but submarine was out there. We shot uh 30 rockets into uh an area, every single one of them, I think it was almost 400 miles away, I think, Pete.
Right. Fund and long. It was in the ocean, long ways away. And uh we shot we shot uh a total of 30. Every single one of them hit within 9 in from where it was supposed to be. It took out a lot cuz we didn't do just we did uh two others in addition which hadn't been completely uh destroyed. So we hit them with a submarine from hundreds of miles away.
Amazing. Just amazing equipment. Greatest submarines in the world. Nobody's even close. at 20 years behind us when it comes to submarine technology. So that's one and the other was uh was from the Atomic Energy Commission and they have about three or four of them now coming in from atomic energy commissions from various places but the one that we have that just came out.
we released it a little while ago was from the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, but numerous of them are getting to see the site and the site has been demolished. And again, uh we had these brave uh patriots, these incredible flyers, these uh people that can fly a plane better than anybody can fly a plane going into very hostile territory.
No, bro. I mean, I'll tell Dude, I just think it's weird territory that and I don't think Donald Trump's the weird one. I think why he's like having to rant about this. Like you guys don't think it's weird that right when he does the move and attacks, they're like, "Oh my god, why would you do that?" And everybody got mad that he attacked and then it turns out the attack actually led to nothing.
Right? And then you see what I'm saying? He's only explaining it cuz everybody is now insisting well they didn't really attack it then. And then so I just think it's weird. I think it's weird that we even make the president uh have to like, you know, this it's just a weird game of well, well, first we're mad that you did it and okay, now that nothing bad happened, we're we're going to doubt that it actually happened.
What? But if it did happen, you would have been mad about it. So, there's a lot of It's just really weird, bro. So, yeah, if you're wondering why he's like I think he's trying to highlight it would take four to five years. We eliminated it. I don't know why they keep saying that. That's why he's ahead of the joint chiefs of staff right now because experience with him.
He knocked out ISIS. You are going again. The dollar is going to die a few weeks but MP on the high. So watching material start to go up. But even then NATO comments he was saying buy defense. We had a great uh victory there and we then came here and I think we had a great victory here. But this is an ongoing project.
This is the safety of Europe, the safety of the world. And they've raised it from 2% to 5%, something which nobody and you're talking about over a trillion dollars a year. So we're talking about a lot of money from coming in from countries that we're not paying nearly enough to be effective. So uh I have, as you know, Marco Rubio with me and Pete Hexath, Secretary of State and Secretary of War.
Should we say Secretary, you know, it used to be called Secretary of War. Maybe for a couple of weeks we'll call it that because we feel like warriors. Used to be called Secretary of War. In fact, if you look at the old building next to the White House, you can see where it used to be Secretary of War.
Then we became politically correct and they called it Secretary of Defense. I don't know, maybe we'll have to start thinking about changing it. But we feel that way. Uh do we have any questions, please? Wow, that's a lot of questions. That's a lot. Uh, who's a nice per? Oh, you're not a nice person, but I'll let you ask one.
Go ahead. What's he going to ask? He is not nice at all. I know him well. Thank you, Mr. President. Thank you for taking the time before flying home. Um, you just said you believe the conflict between Israel and Iran is over. What makes you so confident it is, and what do you do if it isn't? because I dealt with both and they're both tired, exhausted.
They fought very, very hard and very viciously, very violently. Uh, and they were both satisfied to go home and get out. And can it start again? I guess someday it can. It could maybe start soon. Uh I think a big telltale sign was when uh as you know Iran somewhat by not the so they're going lower ceasefire and Israel had the planes going out that morning and there were a lot of them 52 of them and I said you got to get them back and they brought them back.
They didn't do anything. They brought them back. It was very good. I thought it was amazing actually. Uh they have fought a hell of a war. They fought very hard. I think the war ended actually when we hit the various nuclear sites with the planes. And I just hope you people can give these pilots, these are the best pilots in the world.
They're the best shots in the world. They call them shots. That's what they are. And and wait a minute. And I I just hope you can give them the respect they deserve cuz they came home to fake news. I know. Like, oh, hardly any damage. of things that it's not even that they came back to that. It's the fact of the matter is that if this [ __ ] popped off negatively, everybody would have got mad that he did that.
And I think that Iran weird, thank you to our troops and they can do things. I don't see them uh getting back involved in the nuclear business anymore. I think they've had it. They've been at it for 20 years and I don't see that happening either. Now, if it does, we're always there. It won't be me. It'll be somebody else, but we're there.
We'll have to do something about it. Yes. Uh, please go ahead. Go ahead. Please go ahead. Oh, fake news. CNN. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Here we go. When do you hear this question? You You should really say how great our soldiers and our warriors are. I think everyone appreciates our soldiers and our warriors.
I I do have two questions for you, Mr. President. You just cited this smugness um on these attacks. Earlier you said US intelligence was inconclusive. Are you relying on Israeli intelligence for your assessment of the impact of the strikes? No, this is also Iran made the statement and it's also if you read the document that was again you guys you're getting taken down now at big tech.
I mean Tesla doing it some of the big tech holding damage but they didn't take but yeah this is big tech. It could be limited or it could be very Dow Jones 10 green 20 red say it could be limited or it could be very very severe and NASDAQ 43 green 57 red it's half and half since then we've still intelligence we've spy 130 green 370 red and the site the site is obliterated and we think everything nuclear is down there they didn't take it out okay question please go ahead go ahead yeah blue Thank you so much, Mr.
President. Yesterday you said China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran. Yeah. Are you giving up on your maximum pressure campaign because there are sanctions right now? With who? On Iran? No. Look, they just had a war. The war was fought. They fought it bravely. I'm not giving up. They they're in the oil business.
I mean, I could stop it if I wanted. Could sell China the oil myself. I don't want to do that. Uh they're going to need money to put that country back into shape. We want to see that happen. We did. No. If if they're going to sell oil, they're going to sell oil. We're not taking over the oil. We could have, you know, I used to say with Iraq, keep the oil.
I could say it here, too. We could have kept the oil. Um no, China is going to want to buy oil. They can buy it from us. They can buy it from other people. But you're going to have to put that country back into shape. It needs desperately needs money. Yeah. Yeah. Please. Here we go. I'm picking the beauties today.
Go ahead. Mr. President, Secretary General Ruta has described President Putin as an adversary, a threat, an enemy. Do you view him the same way? And in addition to that, you mentioned General Kaine, your chief of staff, the the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. General Kane. Yes. He has uh said that Mr.
Putin has territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine. Do you view that in the same way? It's possible. I mean, it's possible. I know one thing. He'd like to settle. He'd like to get out of this thing. It's a mess for him. Uh he called the other day. He said, "Can I help you with Iran?" I said, "No, you can help me with Russia." Because, you know, in the last few weeks, we took care of India and Pakistan, Kosovo, Serbia.
Uh I think on Friday we have coming in uh the Congo is coming in and Rwanda is coming in. That was a vicious war that went on a machete war. Heads chopped off all over Africa. They're coming in. We did uh two others in addition to that. Nobody's ever done anything like this. Uh no, I consider him a person that's uh I think been misguided.
I'm very surprised actually. I I thought we would have had that settled easy. I've settled four of them in the meantime. But he did call up and he said, uh, you know, he's close to Iran. He'd like to help us get a settlement. I said, "No, no, you help me get a settlement with you with Russia." And I think we're going to be doing that, too.
Yeah. Please go ahead, please. Thank you, Mr. President. You've made clear your position on what impact the strikes had. I wanted to ask you what is next with Iran. For instance, is there any indication from US intelligence that Iran was able to move any material, including No, we just the opposite.
We think we hit them so hard and so fast they didn't get to move. And if you knew about that material, it's very hard and very dangerous to move. It's called It's called uh in many people they call it dust, but it's very very heavy. It's very, very hard to move. And they were way down, you know, they're 30 stories down.
They're literally 30 35 stories down underground. You think you got it all? Oh, yeah. We think we got Well, we think it's it's covered with uh granite, concrete, and steel. Can I ask you, are you interested in restarting negotiations with Iran? And if so, have they received? So, our people, Marco could answer this, but our people are uh not I'm not The way I look at it, they fought, the wars done, and you know, I could get a statement that they're not going to go nuclear.
We're probably going to ask for that, but they're not going to be doing it, but they're not going to be doing it anyway. They've had it. They've had it. Now, maybe someday in the future, we'll want that, but I've asked Marco, do you want to draw? I just asked him the question as we were walking on the stage.
You want to draw up a little agreement for them to sign because I think we can get them to sign it. So, Nvidia, TSM, a couple of chips are popping right now. Mr. President, Tesla on the law. President Trump has shown a willingness to meet and talk to anybody in the world who's interested in peace. I don't know of any president Supreme Leader Rubio to meet with anyone and talk about peace.
We'd love to have relations and so um obviously that'll depend on Iran's willingness not just to engage in peace but to negotiate directly with the United States not through some third country or fourth country process. But I know of no president probably in our modern history that's sought peace more than President Trump has.
Sounds like the door is open but you're in no rush. Is that right? Sounds like the door is open. I'll tell you what. Look, we're going to talk to them next week with Iran. Uh we may sign an agreement. I don't know. To me, I don't think it's that necessary. I mean, they had a war. They fought. Now they gone back to their world.
I don't care if I have an agreement or not. Uh we the only thing we'd be asking for is what we were asking for before about uh we want no nuclear, but we we destroyed the nuclear. In other words, it's destroyed. I said Iran will not have nuclear. Well, we blew it up. It's blown up to kingdom come and uh so I don't feel very strongly about it.
If we got a document wouldn't be bad. We're going to meet with them. Actually, we're going to meet with them. Yeah. Yeah. Go ahead, please. All right. I'm going to go get Thank you for visiting our country as you're going to be flying blind. Good luck. Of course, like to know how you slept last night at the house of the Oh, I slept beautifully.
But probably more serious question. I think you just had a meeting with President Zalinski. Did you discuss any ceasefire in this Russo Ukrainian? No, no, I just I wanted to know how he's doing. He was very nice actually. You know, we had little rough times sometime. He was couldn't have been nicer.
I think he'd like to see an end to this. I do. I think uh what I took from the meeting couldn't have been nicer actually, but I I took from the meeting that he'd like to see it end. I think it's a great time to end it. I'm going to speak to Vladimir Putin and see if we can get it ended. But but uh look, these are brave people.
They're fighting these wars all over the place. You know, uh last week they had, I guess, close I told you seven close to 7,000 young soldiers, Russian and Ukrainian soldiers were killed. 7,000 in one week. It's crazy. It's crazy. So, I'll be speaking to Putin. No, I had a good meeting with with Zinski and I had a lot of good meetings.
We had a lot of good meetings with a lot of people, a lot of great leaders, but uh he's he's fighting a brave battle. It's a tough battle. Yeah. Okay, I'm back. I need to go. Produce acquired. Thank you. Again, Powell is live. I just haven't gotten any Powell comments. Uh you have played golf with President Alexander Stup.
How do you see Finland as a NATO ally and partner, and how would you describe your relationship with our president? Well, he's a very good golfer. Okay. In fact, he was on his college golf team. He went to a good college in the South, as you know. Very good college. And he was a good golfer. We had a good time.
I think my relationship's great. I want to buy uh uh ice breakers. You know, you're very good at ice breakers. And uh I actually made him an offer. I didn't go to Congress. They'll try and impeach me for this. But there's an old, it's not old, it's fairly new, but it's used icebreaker. And I offered him about onethird of what he asked for.
But we're negotiating. We need ice breakers in the US. And if we can get some inexpensively, I'd like to do Yeah, but I thought he was talking about a mint for a long time. Also, we may buy some ice equipment to You're the king of ice breakers that particular country. I thought he was talking about the candy.
They make them really good and they don't. So, you're going lower, though. You hit a new low on that weight. So, we're negotiating with them for about 15 different ice breakers, but one of them is available now. It's old and it's uh, you know, old. It's like five, six years old and we're trying to buy it.
I'm trying DKS again life. All I do is make deals. Yeah, please. Go ahead, sir. Go ahead. You have not filled the gap. The baby gap. Question for NewsHour Dutch TV. First of all on on article 5 on your way here you spoke about the commitment of the US to article 5 saying I'll give you my definition once we're here.
What is your definition and may the US commitment to article 5 change in case some of the NATO members do not reach the threshold that was uh discussed today. My second question is following up on a colleague on Iran. What intel reports do say that everything over there was um obliterated? Yeah. Well, there are numerous of those reports and they're coming out fast and furious, but the most respected ones we've already seen and I will say that on a very uh confidential basis, they're looking at the reports uh uh like numerous reports and including people going to the site and checking the site and they're going to be having I guess you're going to be having over the next couple of days of full you're going to encapsulate it.
But no, the site was obliterated just like I said it was and just like the pilots should be given credit for as far as article 5. Look, when I came here, um, I came here because it was something I'm supposed to be doing, but I left here a little bit different differently. I said, uh, I I watched the heads of these countries get up and the love and the passion that they showed for their country was unbelievable.
I've never seen quite anything like it. They they want to protect their country and they need the United States and without the United States, it's not going to be the same. And you can ask uh Mark or you can ask any of the people that were there. It was really moving to see it. They love their country.
They were so respectful of me because I'm the head of the United States. And I made, you know, the king of Saudi Arabia when I was in uh I was in the Middle East. So I was in Qatar for a different reason, not a reason to get shot at. We were in there for economic development reasons. Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
All three leaders of those countries, and we took back 5.1 trillion dollars into the United States. All three leaders said, you know, you're presiding over the hottest country in the world. The United States right now is the hottest. Everybody wants to be there. Everybody Everybody wants a piece of it.
He said, a year ago, your country was dead. You had a dead head running it. You had a country that was dead. And it was dead. You had people pouring through the borders. It had inflation. You had everything. He said, "You've made it in five months at that time. You've made it the hottest country. This is the hottest country in the world." United States right now is the hottest country in the world.
And when I was around that table, it was a nice uh group of people, many of whom I knew from previous. When I saw the passion they had for the country, almost everyone, and you probably have the tapes, it was very public, but almost every one of them said, "Thank God for the United States. Without the United States, we couldn't they couldn't really have NATO.
It wouldn't work." Yeah. There was a headline. It said, "Trump, US, and Iran will talk next week." So you got a little pop, but you faded a couple of the other ones. So Pan Powell is talking, but I do think this is a little bit more important right now. Countries. It's not a ripoff, and we're here to help them protect their country.
Okay, we'll do one or two more. Thank you, Mr. President. A question on Spain. Are you satisfied with uh today? Oh, I think Spain's terrible what they've done. No, I do. They they're the only country that won't pay the full up. They want to stay at 2%. I think it's terrible. And you know, they're doing very well.
The economy is very well. And that economy could be blown right out of the water with something bad happening. You know, Spain is the only country that Are you from Spain? Good. Congratulations. You're the only country that is not paying. I don't know what the problem is. It's I think it's too bad. So, we'll make it up.
You know what we're going to do? We're negotiating with Spain on a trade deal. We're going to make them pay twice as much. And I'm actually serious about that. We're going to make Spain I like Spain. I have so many people from Spain that it's a great place and they're great people. But Spain is is uh the only country out of all of the countries that refuses to pay and you know so they want a little bit of a free ride but they'll have to pay it back to us on trade because I'm not going to let that happen.
It's unfair. It's unfair to All right, sir. Please go ahead. Right in the back. Yeah, you tall one. The tall man. Mr. President, Johannes Petra from Austrian National Television. How are you? You once said that you would end the Ukraine war in 24 hours. You later said, you said that sar sarcastically.
Of course, it was sarcastic. But you've now been in office for 5 months and 5 days. Why have you not been able to end the Ukraine war? because it's more difficult than uh people would have any idea. Uh Vladimir Putin has been more difficult. Frankly, I had some problems with Zillinsky, you may have read about him, and it's been more difficult than other wars.
I mean, look, we just ended a war in 12 days that was simmering for 30 years, frankly. Uh we ended uh Rwanda and the Congo. It's coming to sign the documents. We've already signed basic documents, but they're coming, I think, to the White House on Friday. uh we ended uh Serbia was going to go at it, but maybe the most important of all, India and Pakistan.
And that wasn't whether or not they may someday have nukes like we're talking about in the Middle East like we're talking about with Israel and Iran. This is the half. Uh yeah, oil's launching though right now. did that with a but yeah Spain will be penalized causing that and then oil just took a go fighting each other was getting very bad you know how bad that last attack was it was really bad if you're going to go fighting each other we're not doing any trade deal no you have to do a trade deal we're not doing any trade deal and in fact I had the general really was very impressive uh the uh general from Pakistan was in my office last week uh you I know Prime Minister Modi is a great friend of mine.
He's a great gentleman. He's a great man. And I got them to reason. I said, "We're not doing a trade deal if you're going to fight. And if you're going to fight each other, we're not doing a trade deal." And you know what? They said, "No, I want to do the trade deal. We stop the nuclear war." Go ahead.
Go ahead, Jeff. Here's another beauty. Jeff, he's that beauty. All right. Go ahead. Uh, Mr. President, follow up on Ukraine. Will the United States contribute any more money to Ukraine's defense this year to the 5 billion that allies are giving? And one question, you had another meeting with the Dutch opposition leader, Mr.
Wilders. Can you tell us about that meeting? And are you upset about his anti-Muslim stance? I'm not upset about it. It's just his view. He's unhappy with the way things are going in this country and various countries. He was an opposition leader and I was asked to meet with the opposition leader by the people that are running.
I think they have some deal where if you have a meeting, you're supposed to meet with an opposition leader. I said, "That's strange. That's we don't that, but I met with the I don't I didn't know him. Uh he seemed like a very nice guy, but he's in opposition to the current people, and that was set up by the current people.
So, I assume when I met with the prime minister, you're supposed to meet with the opposition." We'll have to try that sometime in our country. Let's not do it. Uh but he was he was I thought he was very good as far as money going. Uh we'll see what happens. There's a lot of spirit. Look, Vladimir Putin really has to end that war.
People are dying at levels that people haven't seen before for a long time. Go ahead. Go ahead. White shirt. Oh, she's all excited. So, um BBC News Ukrainian. Um I Where are you from? I'm from Ukraine. Oh. So my question to you is whether or not the US is ready to sell anti-air missile systems patriot to Ukraine.
We know that Russia has been pounding Ukraine really heavily right now. Are you living yourself now in Ukraine? My husband is there. Wow. And I can see you're very, you know, it's amazing. And me with the kids. Um I'm in Warso actually because he wanted me to be Is your husband a soldier? No, he's he's there now.
Yeah. Wow. That's rough stuff, right? That's tough. And you're living here in Oslo. And you're a reporter? I am. Good. So, let me just tell you, they do want to have the anti-missile missiles. Okay. That is interesting set of questions. And we're going to see if we can make some available. You know, they're very hard to get.
We need them, too. We were supplying them to Israel and uh they're very effective. 100% effective. Hard to believe how effective. And they do want that more than any other thing as you probably know. That's a very good question and I wish you a lot of luck. I mean, I can see it's very upsetting to you.
So, say hello to your husband. Okay. Thank you. Go ahead. Thank you. I can't tell. I think it's a genuine question and like he's being nice, but then it also news. I mean, he is asking about wonderful. You were criticizing the Federal Reserve chair before coming to this summit. Yeah, I think he's terrible.
I was wondering if you've begun interviewing different candidates for the Fed pick. Yeah, I I I know within three or four people who all going to pick. I mean, he goes up pretty soon, fortunately, because I think he's terrible. Um, he goes up soon. We have no inflation. We have a tremendous economy.
Hundreds of billions of dollars of tariff money is pouring. I know three or four people because they don't want to pay the tariffs. So, they're building them all over the country. I think we're close to $15 trillion. I told you 5.1 trillion from the middle. Dude, did you know Powell? You ready for this, bro?
There's never been anything. I got Powell [ __ ] drama for you. We have no inflation. I was shocked. We have borrowing because Biden stupidly uh they did short-term debt. So we have borrowing coming up and you know we'll go 10 years maybe longer maybe shorter but we'll go a long period of time when we do the debt and because of him because of this guy uh we will have to pay for years we'll be paying for him and I said to him listen there's no inflation he says but maybe there'll be some that's true I said if there is some what you do is raise the rate I'm okay with that you raise the rate in two years from now or a year from now but because the r's high, we have to pay more for debt.
It's pretty equal. In other words, if it's 4%, it's 4%. If you drop it a point, you'll pay 3%. So, it's fairly equal. Not necessarily, but fairly equal. So, we're going to end up paying maybe two points or three points more. Uh three points would be about $900 billion a year because of this very average mentally person.
He's an averageely mentally person. I'm going to start saying that. what he does. Low you got average mentality IQ for what he does. Average mental person. Uh wait. So on said instead of paying 900 billion dollars, we don't want to pay 900 just because he doesn't want to lower the rate. I said if there's inflation in two years or three years or one year from now, you raise the rate, you take care of the inflation, among other things.
But he's probably a very political guy, I guess. I don't know. I think he's a very stupid person, actually. All right, one more. Let's go. How about you? Go ahead. I mean, I don't think Jerome Powell is a stupid person, but I do think, you know, willfully paying that much money in interest when you can reasonably change it and save money is foolish.
That's okay. Spain, by the way. I think it's unfair that they're not paying, but go ahead. It reminds me it would be like having five times the amount in your bank account and but then you're choosing to run a balance on your credit card. Does that make sense? Like I'm saying, I don't I think I think Pal's a smart guy.
I think Powell is actually above average. I think Powell has actually came up with very good ideas. And you know, at certain times we needed Powell and I think he did very well. But I I do think this element of like, okay, now that it's been like almost a year again, it's just like foolish to keep paying this much money for no reason.
When again, I I agree. Just cut it, do whatever you need to. If something happened, just go [ __ ] raise it again. Uh but at the end of the day it's like you have the money and you could do this but you are literally choosing to pay 19% or whatever your credit card balance is when it's like dude you have the money just pay it off then we could run up the balance again later but why why wouldn't we pay why wouldn't we pay it right now?
So there it is. All they can do is take a guess. Now, if you take a look at the pictures, if you take a look how it's all blackened, you know, the fire and brimstone is all underground because it's granite and it's all underground. You don't show it. But even there, with all of that being said, the whole area for 75 yards around the hole where it hit is black with fire.
Uh the group that's run by this gentleman, in fact, you may want to talk about it for a second because we're going to issue a report. Uh, why didn't you fire him? I mean, look, bro, just you're going against a very Well, one, you're not supposed to fire the Fed chair. Maybe we should establish that.
But at the end of the day, too, it's not worth the political risk. You're going against weak state. I mean, you go and do you go accomplish a Middle East victory. Last time you saw something in the Middle East, it had eight dead Marines and everybody was rejoicing over it. Uh, and now you got people tripping over what?
Over a peace deal. What the [ __ ] So, I don't think you He doesn't have the political capital to fire Powell. And it's dumb when he when Powell leaves in a couple months. You know, it may take six to eight more months. But, you know, and that's going to cost $400 billion. But at the end of the day, unless the people or people are going to support this idea and realize that, yeah, it cost a lot of money.
I I don't think he's going to try to fire him. If you could get him to leave, it's kind of like an eviction, right? I think Powell I think Trump wants to talk [ __ ] and try to get him to leave. That's what Lutnik P and Trump are trying to do. They want him to evict himself. talk enough [ __ ] get him to resign, right?
That way, boom, then you save $400 billion. Other than that though, he's gonna run it till the end and then Trump can't fire him or it's not worth it and then Yeah. then we'll [ __ ] save our money later to spin it for their own political reasons to try to hurt President Trump or our country. They don't care what the troops think.
They don't care what the world care about blinking [ __ ] look. Of course, we've all seen plenty of leakers and what yo headset just made direct eye contact with me. I couldn't you know that I'm not even there in NATO but he just made eye contact with me preliminary [ __ ] a preliminary report that's deemed to be low a low that's why I'm glad who was our last military guy did he give you the same report and why is there like what was he made a little bit more than I do bombs buried under a mountain devastated so if you want to make an assessment And the AMD, you better get a big shovel and go really deep cuz Iran's nuclear program is obliterated.
And somebody somewhere is trying to He's like, I promise you it's obliterated. I sent the pictures to my mom. I'll show those that dropped the bombs precisely in the right place. I I can show you the classified material right here. You know who else knows? [ __ ] enough of this [ __ ] That's why they came to the table right away because their nuclear capabilities have been set back back beyond what they thought were possible because of the courage of the commander-in-chief who led our troops despite what the fake news wants to say.
But you're not disputing. The report said what it said even though it was initial. The report said what it said and it was fine. It was severe, they think, but they had no idea. They shouldn't have issued a report until they did. But we've gotten the information. I think Pete said it better than you can say it.
And you know, you should be proud. You I think we should honor our troops. I think Trump did a good job. I think it was this is literally Everybody wants to bring up everything, bro. Last time we did anything in the Middle East and pulled out of Afghanistan, eight Marines died and people cheered like Joe Biden did something.
So, I think we should honor all that and then we should make fun of Pete Exact. I think that's a good middle ground. instead of trying. You don't think so? We can honor our troops. Rejoice there's not another war in the Middle East. And let's make fun of why can't you guys settle at that? I think that is fair.
And I got a call. Instead, you guys are backing the [ __ ] state sponsor of terrorism and being like, "No, it didn't blow up shit." And they all said it was hit, but oh, but we don't think it was really made to hit that badly. And they were devastated. They they put their lives on the line and then they have How did CNN get the info?
Supreme leader for 200 negative. They say Don Don CNN. Where is Don Lemon? Let me talk Don Lemon. Don Don, I promise you, Don, no bombing, no nothing. Don, I have all the uranium right here. I show you. Look, I send you right now. No problem. What do you mean? Trump because they don't understand fake news because they have a normal life except fly very fast planes.
But it's a shame you should be making them heroes. All right. In the back. Look at those back white. Yeah. White jacket. Yeah. Go ahead. Give my mic. CNN. We have a more uranium after. Yes. I know. I know. They gave us more uranium. I just So false. So false. Do you regard your NATO allies as kind of children?
No, he likes me. I think he likes me. If he doesn't, I'll let you know. I'll come back and I'll hit him hard. Okay. No. He did. He did it very affection. Daddy, you're my daddy. Do you regard your NATO allies, though, as kind of like children? And they're obviously listening to you and they're spending more and you're you're obviously appreciative of that, but do you hope that actually they're going to my dad think about the conflict.
You don't want to know, man. Europe on their own. So, my family, it's very representative of the Middle East. I think they're going to remember this because my whole family just disagrees on everything, too. They took it. One of the gentlemen said, "You know what? We've been trying to raise money for raise the rate 30 years." He said, "20 years from almost the beginning and he's been there for a long time." He said, "Until you came along, it never happened.
What you did is amazing." It's been sort of an amazing day. Yeah, half for a lot of reasons but also for that half of my family is like Zionist and the other half is like terrorist balances out but okay for heading back I want to thank these two gentlemen behind me there catch up with the family opinions on all this really they've done a fantastic job and Susie's in the front and she's done great and Monica thank you very much cliping it was quite an exciting time uh and we're going to be heading back we'll be back sooner.
We'll we'll see you in Washington DC. Uh remember this, we have the hottest country anywhere in the world. Thank you very much every hottest in the world right now just down in NATO now. American. Do you trust the American intelligence agency? Thanks for watching. All right. Now, do you think it's over?
It's not. If um oh perfect timing president's trade negotiatory which I define as both sides reducing in a quid proquo reducing tariffs and trade barriers as much as possible. Ideally in a perfect world um we would end up with two sides with zero tariffs and zero trade barriers. Would that be inflationary?
No, not at all. That would cause the economy to roar, wouldn't it? I think it would be. Yeah. Okay. Thank Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I appreciate your endorsement, Mr. Chairman, of the reconciliation bill. Senator Warner. Thank you, Mr. Funny, Senator Kennedy. I didn't interpret. I'm going to go back so we can hear it all.
Okay. Is that okay? I think you guys are all Thank you. Let me echo what I'm going to Thank you for your five minutes so we can hear, Kennedy. Um, well, it's pricing, you know, it's reacting to economic. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Um, Mr. Chairman, did did I understand you to say that the u the reconciliation bill is the most extraordinary legislation you've ever seen.
Did I hear that correctly? There may have been some lost in translation. I was a little Kennedy's pump. Tell me what uh tell tell me what the bond market's telling you. Bond market is fine now, functioning well. It's pricing, you know, it's reacting to economic news. Uh there's adequate liquidity. Um rates have come down pretty significantly from uh from where they were a couple months ago.
So I think it's uh I think inflation expectations have come down a bit from April and in general the bond market is uh is functioning well. Okay. Um, explain to me why we have seen in the last few months weakness in the dollar. That's a that's a great question. Of course, the Treasury Department has the job of is responsible for No one's talking about the currency front.
So, I just I don't know. I think the You don't know Powell. You're smarter than me, Powell. you know, markets have been digesting a um that a bunch of [ __ ] Europeans in Black Rockck bought the dollar and the pound and gold and all. No, you don't know why. You know, have have reacted the way they've reacted.
The dollar's kind of stabilized now. In fact, it's moved back up here in in the last couple of weeks a bit. Uh and you know, there are plenty of people who are still writing that the dollar is still overvalued. We don't have a view on that, of course, but uh I wouldn't I wouldn't really have a an opinion on exactly why it is what it is.
Well, you know, in a clearly there's a lot of geopolitical risk right now. Um, which would lead one to conclude, all things being equal, that people would would be flocking to the dollar and it would be stronger. Well, you have seen some of that here in the last few days, but um, again, I I there I don't really have a an official view I'd like to share on that.
I think there are possible explanations, multiple possible explanations. Again, one of which is that people still some people still feel the dollar is is highly valued. Yeah. Um but we'll see. I want to talk for a few minutes about um tariffs and inflation. What what does history tell us about uh about tariffs and and its impact on inflation or deflation?
So the thing is we've you know we've been through a long period in which tariffs were going down. Remember since World War II really it's been a process of lowering tariffs globally. So there just isn't a lot of modern um learning on that. I think people look at the incidents of tariffs during the president's first term but those were like one sixth the size of of what's what's people are estimating now and they they do find some effects on inflation.
But remember in in 19 in 2019 when those tariffs were put into place, the economy was slowing. We actually cut rates three times, inflation was running at 1.5%. So it was a very different time. This is this is different. I think one of the reasons why it's so challenging is that there really isn't a modern precedent.
And I think we have to be humble about our estimates and we are very open to the possibility that transmission through into inflation will be less than we think or maybe more than we think which is why we're in a position of wanting to take our time and make a make a smart decision as we as we see how this unfolds.
Well, obviously the size of the tariff doesn't and we don't know yet. All right. Coming down behind us and we don't have a view on any of the merits at all. Our job is inflation as you know and and maximum employment. Could does it will it also matter us assume that there is upward price pressure? Um would it matter how much businesses decide to pass on versus just eat?
Does that make sense? Yes, that matters. That is what matters. You know the question is who's going to pay for the tariffs? Originally it's the importer but it gets passed along through the distribution chains to some extent to the consumer. The ultimate question of it is how much of it does show up in inflation and honestly it's very hard to predict that um in advance.
So, we're watching to see, you know, what shows up in measured inflation. If we if if um if if the president's trade negotiators pursue reciprocity, which I define as both sides reducing in a quid proquo, reducing tariffs and trade barriers as much as possible. Ideally, in a perfect world, um, we would end up with two sides with zero tariffs and zero trade barriers.
Would that be inflationary? No, not at all. That would cause the economy to roar, wouldn't it? All right. I think it would be Yeah. Thank Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I appreciate your endorsement, Mr. Chairman, of the reconciliation bill. Senator Warner. Thank you, Mr. Funny. Senator Kennedy, dude. Why is Kennedy cooler than his interns?
Oh, I'm his intern one. Thank you. Senator Reed said, "Thank you for doing the job." Um, all right. Now we're live. So, now we're live. Thank you, Mr. Kennedy. One quick question on that. Just following up on Senator Kennedy's line of question. Tell me why. So, if a tariff was put in place, oh, hold on.
and the prices went up, wouldn't that be a one-time event, right? Because after that, it would be baked in. It's just a one-time thing. So, it might well be, as I indicated in my opening remarks, it might well be a one-time VIX is on the high. That isn't a law of nature. You know, we we were going to make sure of that.
Um, we were more sure of that back in 2018. Um, because we'd had, you know, 40 years of low inflation. um coming off of of an of a global inflation episode where we haven't fully returned to 2%. It's it's something just that's question we will approach carefully. But if the tariff is only put in once and just maintains the flat rate there, then how could that be inflationary in the second year?
Well, because it could be a process of many years. I mean, that's a couple things. If it comes in quickly and it's over and done, then yes, very likely it's a one-time thing like an oil shock. A one-time oil shock where the price comes back down, it goes through the system. it doesn't raise inflation, just raises prices once.
But if you have a process that goes on multiple shocks for years, for example, or if the shocks are very large, um that kind of thing. And I think again, you have to we have to be conscious of the current situation, which is people haven't seen 2% flat inflation for some years now. And it's different from what it was in 2018 when we had tariffs earlier, when we actually cut rates.
So, I'm not saying we're we're not reacting at all to this. It's just it's a risk we feel like as the people who are supposed to keep stable prices for the benefit of the American people, we need to manage that risk, too. That's all we're doing. We're not deciding what to do yet. So, if Senator Warner's comment that a tariff is a tax, would that imply that then taxes could be inflationary as well?
No. So, what's the difference between a tax and a tariff then? Or do you disagree with Senator Warner's characterization that tariffs are not taxes? I wouldn't disagree with that, but it's not the language I use. I look this is I as I say one time could be the base case but in a situation like this where the process could go on for a long time where the effects could be large or small it's just something you want to approach carefully in a world where inflation is not back to 2%.
And that's our job. If we if we make a mistake here people will pay a benefit why he's not willing to be fluid. So we're just approaching the question carefully. That's all we're doing. Why are you not willing to be humble? You may not do expect to cut rates between now and the risk assessment. It's not that hundreds of billions of dollars a strong view that that it will risk inflation and not a one time cost increase.
It's just that we're going to attack careful approach to that very critical. Why is he not willing to be fluid? Well, let me switch gears on you a little bit. Um he's not willing to sing threat and finance. You could even argue Arthur B. The US must ensure security of our financial system against communist China's malign influence.
And in 2022, Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee released a report identifying efforts by Communist China operatives to infiltrate the Federal Reserve. But I would like contain real life examples attempts and tactics used to ask Federal Reserve officials, you know, many ways and like we keep asking the Federal Reserve was arrested.
Why are you not trade secrets to benefit and advance fluid if we accept what you're saying? This Wall Street Journal article from May 2025 details potential ramifications actions. The kind of data and trade secrets that this Fed Reserve employee shared could allow Communist China to manipulate the US market and gain advanced knowledge of changes to the federal funds rate.
It could provide Communist China with an advantage when selling or buying US bonds and securities. uh chairman, has the Federal Reserve made any changes to strengthen its internal counter intelligence and security protocols since the development of these incidents? So that's that's an incident. Um and I would say we take it very seriously.
We have quite uh elaborate and and uh serious and strict provisions around staff access to information. Um serious protections for for um confidential information. We have background checks. We have annual training. We have many of those things. I don't know that we've made any fundamental changes, but we're certainly um sorry, very sorry to see something like this having taken place and and uh you know, I mean, we're certainly looking at our at at the protections we have in place.
Great. Well, I have another question and we'll just QFR, but I know the chairman said you've got a heart out, so I'll go ahead and uh yield back my time. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you, Senator Van Holland. Uh thank you, Mr. Chairman and Chairman Powell. Um, good to see you. I want to start by acknowledging the continued uptake of the Fed Now real payment system.
I know I've raised the development and roll out of that system with you in many, many hearings over many years. Um, we're now about two years after launch. I want to continue to work with you and your colleagues uh to encourage expanding expanded adoption uh of the capacity capability and capacity so that customers have real-time access to their money.
So um I just ask that we continue to work on that together. You agree? I do. I thought you might. Thank you. So I want to ask you about the um Intel student situation uh in the country and you've talked about this in the past and you've talked about how it can be a drag on the economy especially when it gets um to be very high in terms of um balances that cannot be paid.
According to the New York Fed, student loan balances grew by 16 billion uh to reach 1.63 63 trillion in the first quarter of this year. Data shows an uptick in the student loan delinquency rate overall, the age of delinquent borrowers and the number of newly delinquent borrowers. Department of Education meanwhile restarted debt collection activities last month and starting in July, nearly 2 million borrowers could see their wages being garnished.
Meanwhile, here garnish wages for student loans. President Trump and Republic senators are working to pass this. I mean, they did take on the debt, but I didn't know they garnish your wages. Make limit. If you guys don't know what that means, that means they just take it out of your bank account and make it harder for responsibly straight from your back on a path toward financial health.
So, so you get job, you get you said uh in your testimony money goes in, they take that student loan debt can negatively impact borrowers ability to fully participate in our economy and that it can weigh down on the economy overall. Is that still your view? Yes, it is. And could you just share your assessment just from a factual new though, right, perspective about how this problem seems to be point in time and what would happen um if we allow all of these borrowers uh to uh default.
So the the point I was making I I try hard not to comment on things that aren't Fed policy but I broke that rule in this case many years ago and I so I'll just say what I said then which is you know you can you can make all kinds of investments and you can discharge if you if you can't pay back the loan you can discharge it in bankruptcy.
The one exception we make is student loans and I ask whether that is wise national policy. People would borrow to invest in their education that we do not forgive. It seems like for something for Congress to consider. That's all. It's none of none of the Fed's business really ultimately. It's not a big macroeconomic thing.
But I've said it before. I said it again. Mr. Chairman, I appreciate your breaking your own rule before and I appreciate your now. Um, I could not agree with you more about the anomaly in the ability to discharge a debt in bankruptcy. Uh, the idea that student loan sort of is the one category of debt that we don't allow to be discharged um is confounding.
I I think unfortunately I didn't know that. I'm going to [ __ ] structure all my real estate loans companies as student loans in that area. I'm not even going to put a lean on the property and I I just came from another committee. like this is a 300,000 so I apologize rehab student loan the tariff situation student loan uh the [ __ ] you mean I know this was obviously a factor that you all had to consider in making decisions about changes in the interest rates uh obviously there's a lot of uncertainty in the economy I mean I hear it every day from Marylanders we have the port of Baltimore we have lots of small businesses that rely on tariffs um you're an economist you know that increasing tariffs is like increasing ing taxes uh across the board, but can you just speak to the uncertainty component of all of this and how that is weighing on people's decisions?
So surveys can you talk about the uncertainty very widely that people feel uncertain about the the economy and they do tariffs in in in that answer. I will say talk about how confusing it is back so that we can see how confusing it is. has come down a little bit and if you talk I know don't explain the other stuff but of business people in the last four months of what's already feeling is a little better now than it was you give more to the uncertainty you know Mr.
I say surveys are still showing depressed sentiment but but it's moved up from where it was I would say Mr. chairman. Um that may be the case at this moment, but we all know that we could wake up any morning and see another tweet. Um and that could change dramatically. Um so I I appreciate I appreciate your your efforts to try to do what you can to meet your dual objectives uh at the Fed.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Yes, sir. Senator Senator Deal, bro. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman here, bro. You're good. As you know, as long as the price has for the last four and a half years, the Federal Reserve is the bank supervision function as opposed to the monetary policy function. So, I'm going to focus on bank supervision.
Um, first of all, I do want to thank you and vice chair uh Mickey Bowman for ensuring reputation risk has been removed from the bank supervision process. Um it was uh very arbitrarily used uh by those who were supervising. Um on January 27th, 2023, um I'd call it the high watermark for Operation Chokepoint 2.0.
The Federal Reserve Board in coordination with President Biden's White House executed a coordinated attack to isolate the digital asset industry from the banking system. And while the Fed has taken steps to adopt a more balanced approach to digital assets, which I appreciate, the legacy of January 7 27th, 2023 remains to January 6.
So I'd like you to look at this quote. Um, issuing on open public andor decentralized networks there hasn't really been any similar system here is highly likely to be inconsistent with safe and sound banking practices. So my first question is do you recognize this quote? Yes. Not super clearly, but yes, I do because it's from the Federal Reserve Board's policy statement on section 913 of the Federal Reserve Act, which was formally adopted by the board on January 27th, 23.
So now, Chairman Powell, I want to show you another statement, and I'm sorry if you can't see it clearly. I'll read it to you. Um, it's from the Genius Act, which just passed the Senate by a vote of 68-30 last week, and it takes the opposite position to the board's policy statement on issuing stable coins on an open public distributed ledger.
So my question is um what has changed about the risk of stable coins since the board adopted um its policy in 2023? And now that the Congress has weighed in, at least the Senate has weighed in and sent the Genius Act to the House, um does the board plan to withdraw the policy statement on section 913?
So what I think what has changed is um if you go back that's a couple years ago that was the period of um high-profile failures and fraud and that kind of thing. And what's happened is I think um you know the industry is maturing our understanding of it is improving and in a sense it's it's coming becoming much more mainstream.
So all of us are revisiting you know the the things that were done during that era. uh and you know I think the the current view is that um you know that it's appropriate for it's always been appropriate for banks to choose their customers and to be able to undertake activities as long as they're safe and sound.
In terms of I think I have to get back to you on 913. I think it's a it's a it's a broader thing that has nothing to do with um crypto but that was that was a piece of it. We are we are looking at and withdrawing many of our pieces of crypto guidance from that era though as you know you're still two points filling the gap.
Oil's coming up again. Hope that by is still green. Eco weight hitting a new low. ego is destroyed. You're also and then NASDAQ still up by.3 Russell Towning and admonishing your bank's supervisors um to when they're when when there are uh efforts to um regulate banks that provide too much uh discretion to bank regulators uh to pick winners and losers from among the customer lists, the loan portfolios of banks.
um it it's anothetical to the American system of banking and I do think that there was that kind of uh discretion unleashed on uh banks u and it had a negative impact a a real chilling impact on banks as they selected uh and banked certain industries and then debanked other industries and other people uh during the last four years.
Um so taking the guidance documents and and uh policy statements out is important but also guiding the people that there are changes now and that they can no longer um use their own subjective biases towards DEI and ESG and other things um in supervising izing uh the banks uh is also a critical component of bank regulation.
I agree completely and as you know a vice chair woman is actually a former bank supervisor so she's very well placed to get oh man make that happen. Well, it's here. The she is the second one directly. I hope that you'll use your road to Jerome. Are you kidding me? The importance of um you know why we love the bank.
It is genuinely like bro the legacy of Powell before the legacy of the peach. I don't think legacy of the peach will ever crumble. They don't get it. Morning. Good morning. Uh committee. Um, so Chair Pal, a few months ago you issued you issued a warning about the trajectory of our national debt. Speaking at a New York Times event, you said US federal budget is on an unsustainable US federal budget is on an unsustainable path.
The debt is not only at an undis. Would you still agree that that is true? I know. Yes. That's the one thing that I I would always say and that my predecessors have say and that's the kind of the only thing we say about fiscal policy. Exactly. Exactly. And I would agree with that at a time when Americans are struggling to figure out how to afford their lives and have low confidence in the economy to add to the deficit now as the big beautiful bill strikes me as unsustainable.
Now, I'm not asking you to moderate between Republican and Democratic policy differences on uh the Big Beautiful bill, but would you agree that the Big Beautiful bill adds to the deficit based on the data that you've seen? I'm just not going to comment on the on the reconciliation. Okay. Well, um I will just point out to my colleagues that the CBO says that it adds to the deficit.
The joint committee on taxation says that it um adds to the deficit. The Yale Budget Lab says that it adds to the deficit. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says that it adds um to the deficit. The Pen Wharton budget model says that it adds to the deficit. And even some of my Republican colleagues, Senator Johnson, Senator Paul, um say that it adds to the budget.
And um as Senator Johnson says, um it's wrong and immoral. So, I appreciate that you won't comment on any of this, but let me just ask you, um an economic question. Can you um talk a bit about what impact a rising deficit has on our goal of lowering costs for Americans, especially in the Trump um tariff environment that we are in right now?
I'm sorry. What impact does a rising deficit have on our goal of lowering costs for Americans, particularly when we are in a Trump this Trump tariff environment, the unpredictability of that? So I I think it's likely that when markets are pricing longer term Treasury securities, there's something baked in to that in the markets thinking about uh interest rates.
You know, what should be the appropriate interest rate? But it's, you know, it's hard to unpack that with any precision, but these are factors that have lots of interplay amongst between one another. Yes. Yes. Um and Chair Pal, could you just comment um briefly about the sort of the potential risks of stagflation where we have slower growth and higher inflation?
I know this is something that the Fed guards against and could you just comment a bit on the risks of that and what it means for regular Americans trying to afford their lives. So that's we're not seeing that now. Um but and I don't it isn't really the base case that that's what we're going to see. But of course that's a very difficult thing because you know a stagnant economy wants more wants more stimulus, but a high an economy with more inflation wants less stimulus.
So, it puts the central bank that's the third one. We've warned of it, but it's it's honestly not something that we're facing and Bank of America to face, but it's I mean, you did hear stuff on what? Yeah, they're kind of moving up now. Um, I want to follow up on a question I asked you. Um, the last time you were before the committee, um, I asked about the impact of severe weather events, otherwise known as climate change, on home insurance costs.
And you testified that I think you said if you fast forward over 10 or 15 years, they're going to be regions of the country where you can't get a mortgage um um because of the, you know, can't get a mortgage because of the in because of the impact of of um the challenges of insurance companies just not being able to um provide that.
Um, since February when I asked you that question, home insurance rates have continued to climb. A recent analysis um about climate re risk from First Street found that financial burdens from severe weather are driving up household costs and triggering increased mortgage defaults. Now, it's at about 8% now, but they project that by 2020 2035, pardon me, um 30% of all for foreclosure losses would be related to climate impacts.
um which is like pretty stunning. Um now I realize this is a complicated issue because insurance is regulated primarily at the state level. Um though there are exceptions. Flood insurance and and terrorism insurance um are exceptions. Um but I I wonder if you would um comment on this. I'm thinking a lot about what impact this has on housing costs um which is a big component of inflation and um a place where housing costs are rising higher than the general inflation rate right now.
Many many things are driving up uh housing costs. It is it's of course mortgage rates but I feel like we haven't heard about housing zoning costs and things like this for properties that are near the water for example we spend some time down in Florida. I yel out property insurance just gets more and more and more uh expensive and to the point where it al almost makes sense to selfinsure and that's because of just big big losses companies are just putting that in their models some of you guys are and they're charging what they need to you know to charge to make a return and if they can't get that then they'll get out of the video how I made $5 million what's happening be like how Mr.
I bought a compound and then Chad blew it up. So there you go. Insurance. Explain to you. Thank you. That's why they call me the velvet hammer, sir. I didn't I didn't I didn't say that you weren't calling me to do it. Like just right now. Why you say not to get a weird nickname hammer? Uh away from Chairman Pal.
Uh just want to make certain I understand this correctly. uh control inflation and maximize employment. That's it. Two things, correct? Yes. So, let's take one at a time. Maximize employment. Do you care if every American makes minimum wage or makes uh a livable wage? Is that something that factors into your conver into your thought process?
In other words, we have full employment. I have a like too, but most Americans are on substandard wages. Does that cause you velvet hamburger? Does that change my what calculus? Does it do you care? In other words, is it full employment is full employment? Every American has on Twitter who's calling they're making minimum wage.
Show me. Uh versus having a family sustaining wage. Is that does that matter to the Federal Reserve? It would matter to the country a lot. I'm saying does it matter to the Federal Reserve when you're making your decision? Honestly, we wouldn't we don't really have the tools to affect that. Right. So, so it doesn't it doesn't factor in.
Now, that's different than us. The people of this country elect us to make certain that their wages are higher than inflation. by the way that the records show that real wages are up this year. So we we've done that, not the Federal Reserve. Second piece of it is let's talk about u inflation first. We've we've helped control inflation which we're talk we're going to jump right into the inflation conversation.
Uh there's different kinds of inflation. There's different causes. There's not witnesses to inflation. There's key actors to inflation. Would you agree? Sure. Okay. So let's talk about the actors. Uh, did you comment during COVID lockdowns that that was a bad idea? Meaning that you're shutting down the entire economy?
It's not a button. You can't hear me. I hit the button. You can hear me. It's on and off. CO wasn't that. We just shut down the economy. Any comments on that? Of course not. Okay. So, you didn't comment on that. Vaccine mandates. Something that my Democrat colleagues loved. If you don't get the vaccine, you're a terrible human being.
You can't go to work. In fact, Joe Biden I got [ __ ] three channel strikes for that [ __ ] because he said that if you work in a company with more than 100 employees and you don't get vaccinated, the company has the ability to fire you. Fire you unless you prove that you are negative on CO. That obviously is a supply chain shock.
Wouldn't you agree? Mexico looking to file lawsuit against put people six feet apart. Now I have people uh quitting or not coming to work or I have to fire them. That's a supply chain shock. Wouldn't you agree? I mean it's a medical thing that you No, but it's a supply chain. I'm not asking you to make a medical decision.
I'm ask Fed decision on inflation. Way outside anything but but it affects inflation because supply it didn't in are wait are you saying that supply chain shocks don't affect inflation? They do but okay they do. So that that's clearly one. If you ban the export of liquid natural gas, which is an under which is going to cause the commodity price to go up, would that uh supply shock not also cause inflation?
Potentially could. Yeah. So, and now my the ranking member loves to talk about billionaire corporations, you know, that are going to get away with paying taxes, right? Who pays corporate taxes? Like, who pays it? Is it like some obscure Wizard of Oz character behind the curtain that uh is a corporate entity that pays taxes?
Who who pays taxes? I mean, ultimately it's shareholders and and customers. So, it would be I'm going to read you a line. You tell me this is accurate on taxes. It's not possible to know in advance precisely how the costs will be shared for taxes. That's I added that. But it is highly likely that consumers will pay a meaningful share.
Meaning if if my the ranking member has her way, let's just tax corporations at 100%. Why not? Be fantastic. It means it ends up paying nobody would want to start a company. But that aside, uh that cost would be added to consumer products. Correct. A tax or a tariff? What are you talking about now? T in if the income tax for American corporations goes up, they will share that tax burden with their consumers.
True or false? Ultimately. Yeah. So then taxes do raise inflation, but you don't comment anymore. I got empirically it's not true. The chairman is going to beat me up in 56 seconds. So, but you sent me a very nice letter, which I appreciate, and it says the Federal Reserve plays no role in commenting on trade policy.
So, you don't comment on supply shocks. You don't comment on tax policy, which clearly affects inflation. You don't comment on demand pool. You just said now that we should forgive student debt. Why is a person that goes to Harvard that does get a gender studies major pays Harvard obscene amounts of money because professors are grossly overpaid there.
Is that person better than a workingclass Ohio and that is a plumber but can't afford a car because interest rates are too high and car prices have gone up? Why is that person Why don't we forgive that person's car loan instead of forgiving their student loan? But you don't comment on that. You comment on tariffs.
So I'm going to just show you I don't comment on tariffs at all actually. I comment on the chart only commenting on the wisdom of tariffs. The wisdom of tariffs. The chairman's over there in the conversations. I'm going to show you a chart here. This is car prices. This is car prices. This year car prices are down to be honest.
That's not my data. Inflation. I'm not claiming it but amen bro. She's showing you all this by millions of one person. and he doesn't want you to be in that job. And you are costing this government $400 billion a year by refusing to lower interest rates. Nobody in this chamber has that kind of power $400 billion impact on this economy on our deficit.
And I just think that you should consider uh whether you're showing this from a fiscal lens or a political lens because you just don't like tariffs. Senator Waro is next. Thank you, Chair Scott. They said thank you. Thank you, Chair Scott. And uh thank you, Chair Powell. Good to see you. The United States national debt currently exceeds $36 trillion.
I like it. He watched it. Watch. Last year, we paid nearly $1 trillion in interest on the debt alone, more than the federal government spent on educating and feeding our children. Chair Powell, how does the Fed consider rising national debt levels during discussions about adjusting interest rates? We really don't.
We we take fiscal policy as completely exogenous and we look at the data that's coming in, but we don't um we're never going to take into account uh budget deficits and things like that. Well, well, here here is my concern. Maybe maybe Congress should be thinking about it. Uh the world is losing faith in America's ability to repay our Anyways, Mr.
Waro. No, bro. Because this is what I keep telling y'all. It's a very weird like dude we are in La La Land right now like there is like so much objective data that is pointing one way that you could form your own opinion like like I'm saying if you're scared of tariffs and certain things it's like bro you can it's been of you could have had a baby you know what I'm saying a baby would have been formed in the womb in this time and the data has already formed a lot and that's why it's like, "Yeah, bro.
It's It's kind of nuts." So, and that's why just like it's obvious and if you actually cared about it, you'll see it, but then it's just like people are just acting as if it's not there and spur investor. Yeah, that's why I was showing you the charts yesterday. Slower economic times. I'm I'm happy to say that today those things do not affect our ability to do our job.
The concern really is that if we don't do something then there will come a time at at which it will be a problem not not for us but for the country but that at this time it it does not interfere in any way with our ability to that is a realistic concern in the future given the rate of increasing debt and and it's something I'm I'm concerned about and maybe because it's in the future maybe that's why you know folks who have power who sit in these jobs aren't as concerned about it as as uh perhaps the Congress should be.
I'm concerned about it as a father of a six-year-old and an eight-year-old. I'm concerned that uh my Republican colleagues are planning to ram forward a bill that according to the Congressional Budget Office will increase the deficit by $4.2 trillion. So, I want us to think about that. We're we're taking food out of the mouths of hungry children.
This bill could cut as mere as many as 16 uh million Americans off of health care. When we think about Medicaid, 71% of the Medicaid recipients in Georgia are children. So, we're taking their health care and then we're saying to these children that you'll have to deal with these trillions of dollars in debt uh one day, $4.2 trillion increase.
Senate Republicans are trying to use a budget gimmick to claim the bill only costs a fraction of that by simply not counting things they don't want to count. They don't like the math. They just change the formula. But the markets and those investing in our country don't care about these budget tricks.
And I don't think it will help my six-year-old and my 8-year-old when when the bill comes due on this. They know the truth and they will react based on on the truth. The big ugly bill will put the United States on a disastrous fiscal path and it will be catastrophic for our economy. Even worse, the big ugly bill uh is cutting people off of their health care and for what purpose to give tax cuts to the wealthiest.
So, this is an interesting moment uh for me for someone who didn't know I'd end up in politics or just paid attention to politics over the years. Um, they're getting ready to create a whole lot of pain for a lot of people. And the question is, for what purpose? To give billionaires a tax cut off. I think we ought to work together to prioritize extending tax cuts.
Yo, are you talking to me? For the working class. We shouldn't be cutting their healthcare. We ought to save the country trillions of dollars. You be you you can't even accidentally spell dog. What the [ __ ] Americans if we try to work together. Can you accidentally put a sentence together and then insult my intelligence, please?
I'm going leave that up there real quick. I believe in tax cuts. I think No, no, no. I'm going to leave that for y'all real I'm going to let them see that. And uh we ought not be burdening our children with all of this debt. With that, you and the chairman should take note that the Baptist preacher is done with three seconds left.
And the people said, "Amen." Okay, Senator Hagerty. Thank you, Chairman Scott and Ranking Member Warren for holding this meeting. And Chairman Pal, it's good to see you here again. Um, Chairman Pal, I want to talk with you about inflationary and deflationary trends in our economy and how they impact your thinking.
I understand based on your testimony and recent statements that you're acutely sensitive to the inflationary risks of our administration's trade policy and though I note that it's not the Fed's responsibility to attempt to steer or to direct you there for you Chad. Um I I look at I look at that I look at your perspective but I also look at many of the other developments in our country that I think uh present the opposite risk which is a disinflation God bless you Billy.
And and let me dig into this a bit. We're witnessing artificial intelligence adoption at breakneck speed that's going to bring about productivity gains in nearly every aspect of our economy. We're about to pass a tax bill. That tax bill is going to encourage capital expenditures and do very simple. I have intentionally I didn't do anything honestly.
I don't know [ __ ] bro. The Lord has provided give God the glory. But whatever you think I know or didn't know, we have talked about it in advance and in front of thousands of witnesses. We have made a fortune off of it for thousands of people and we are still on. And I'm not saying I haven't been incorrect, but in terms of the macro economy, what has gone on and happened, I think I've been one of the most accurate people in the world the last nine months of the point.
So good luck. So if if uncertainty around tariffs is the problem, you don't love me personally. Be gone, bro. Go home. Angry, man. How do you That's fine. I apologize for making fun of you, but that's what happens when you come at people with that energy. We do look at the overall. I don't think I did [ __ ] bro.
I'm a legit I I shouldn't be doing what I'm doing, bro. I demand more from politicians in the media. They should be giving you better than what I can regions of others have done economy that matters for inflation. I get asked about tariffs a lot and that's the one where else manics you're going to end if I was really about that big it's going to be underperforming with you but it's just something we're doing we're waiting to see more information on so we can make a better decision on interest rates.
That's all it is. Well, I I I hear the discussion about not knowing the magnitude and the timing of of the the trade talks and the resulting tariffs that will ensue. It does seem to me that there's a bias toward Okay. viewing this as more inflationary than deflationary. And I I'd like to ask you this.
If u Ambassador Greer is successful at bringing the trade deals together soon and alleviating that uncertainty, what would that do to your perspective on rates? Would that put you in a position to think more aggressively about lowering rates? Yes, potentially it would. I mean, really, it's reducing uncertainty would help and also just what's going to be the final tariff rate and getting that settled.
Um, and it would it and I I think that's the that's the path we're on. You know, I think that's welcome news. I think the markets will welcome that as well because I do believe that we're on the path, as you're as you're about to say, of having some significant resolution in trade uncertainty. We've lived in an unbalanced world for years with the United States has had the lowest tariff barriers in the world and you know, other nations have taken advantage of that.
Jameson Greer and his team, Scott Vesson and his team, the president, everyone is making a concerted effort to fix this. So, I'm I'm looking forward to that. Uh the one other area I wanted to touch on because it's touching close to home and and that is legislation that this committee has just passed out and that we've just passed uh in the Senate has to do with the Genius Act.
We just passed it last week and it provides an urgently needed regulatory framework for payment stable coins and it requires that they're backed one to one by cash or shortdated US treasuries. Over the last 5 years, the total value of outstanding stable coins has increased from approximately $4 billion to over $2 billion today.
One market participant has predicted that if a framework like the Genius Act is adopted, total issuance of dollar peg stable coins could reach nearly closed in 10 seconds by the end of the decade. So, I wanted to get your perspective again, Mr. Chairman, but what impact would this new future trade deals may allow you to consider?
what impact would it have on short-term rates? You know, so more demand is going to have a tendency to to to drive down rates. I I don't really have a sense of how big that effect would be, of course, and let me just say that it's a great thing that we're making progress toward a fra stable coin framework.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I I couldn't agree with you more. The the direction clearly is that it's going to drive rates down. I think it's very positive for the economy, positive for our cost of borrowing as a nation, and u I appreciate your response there, Mr. Chairman. Uh, thank you very much for that.
Yes, sir. Senator Cortez Basto. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Chairman Pal, it's good to see you. Thank you for being here. Um, I want to follow up on a a question from Senator Warner about data deterior deterioration. I I'm concerned about that as well. Um, that the the Trump administration I'm watching as they've ended dozens of research studies that business and government leaders rely on.
So, uh, my question to you, are there specific research projects that the Bureau of Labor Statistics provided that they no longer do provide that the Federal Reserve researchers cannot replicate on their own or through other sources? Um, and I'm not aware of any. Okay. Um, that doesn't mean they don't exist, but mainly it's the regular data they supply and as you know, they've cut back on the size of that survey, right?
So, I would hope as we move forward and not just in today's hearing, but if there is some other data or you're relying on data that you're not getting or there's now another source for that data, um I would please share that with the committee. Thank you. Yes. Um during the Biden administration, the the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the Federal Reserve worked together to improve access to the discount window for banks.
What is the status of that collaboration with the uh FHFA? I I can't speak to the FHFA. I can um I can speak to the fact that we're we're really looking carefully at um you know, modernizing the discount window and making We're not there yet. No, it's going to be it's this is a project that will take some time.
You know, it's that the discount window uh needs to be updated and refreshed from a techn technological standpoint so that people can access it readily and that kind of thing. It's still a little bit behind the uh the the the age in that respect. Do you have a time frame that you're looking at to I I'll get back to you.
You know, it's something we've been working on hard or is there a funding impediment that is also addressing? Honestly, there's nothing that with it. We were down in the morning, but really it was just mag 7 kind of leading. You know, you had Trump and NATO, but there hasn't really been any real development.
So NASDAQ is still green. So is spy, but equal weight, it's really just big tech kind of leading and then we're just chilling near the high. Like I was saying, I think we're going to be in melt mode, but the velocity, you know, remember how we got here. You guys don't remember. Let me pull it back for a little bit.
But just remember how did you don't remember how all these highs played out? You would rock it up and then you kind of like chill for a couple days, hit the high, chill for a couple days, and then you would keep doing this. So, just remember how you melt it up here to begin with. You're probably going to keep doing that uh until there's bad news.
So, I wouldn't be too reactionary. Uh and just be careful. You are getting a red. Uh Iranian intelligence says secession of military operations does not mean end of hostilities. That's how you guys are when I unban you. Just because you unban me and I will watch every day Josh, it does not mean the end of hostilities.
El Jazer Alazer YouTube. So yeah, but other than that, we'll go back to this has fallen. What um what specific challenges do you see for community? I still think you're in melt mode. Just think of the last couple weeks, you guys. Community banks, these little pullbacks. I mean, I'm going to I'm looking for structural shift.
I'm looking for developments. Everything's going to be good. Community banks are absolutely critical. They know what's going on. Still the he has risen rally. Exactly. You know that the big banks can't possibly critical part of our infrastructure. I think about how we got here pressure because frankly regulatory cost to contribute to that all highly and it looks like you're not something we're trying to foster.
even if we do talk to break the lower range. So, we try not to add to to what is a secular trend um because we think they're important. Thank you. Thank you for being here. Appreciate it. Thanks, Miss Chairwoman. I yield my time. I know, dude. The the YouTube houthies, they're confused and then me and Google came to a ceasefire, so they're [ __ ] they're like, I thought we launched our rockets YouTube.
Don't we all hate start um don't we all hate Jesus? No. What do you mean peace deal with YouTube.com? Believe that community. You guys will figure it out. Just get along. Credit unions, financial institutions that serve everyday Americans and main streets across the great state of Alabama and our country are so critically important to people being able to actually achieve the American dream.
And want to make sure I know we've talked about this the last few times that you've been in front of us. We've talked about the rewrite of Basel 3. We've talked about long-term debt. We've talked about REGI. We talked about a ton of things and talked about my concern that no one was looking at the cumulative impact of those things and the trickle down effect.
I just want to get a commitment from you that as you are reviewing rulemaking across the board that you will consider and make sure to make um the perspective of the smallest US banks and non-financial industries like the a sector who did not maybe have a seat at the table in previous administrations but give them a seat at the table and make sure that you're thinking about the impact on on those individuals and the people they serve.
I'm happy to make that commitment. Thank you so much Chair Powell. Um I also want to talk to you about an issue that has been brought up briefly today um by another colleague of mine but that is childare look at the child care crisis that's 4% that has to be something loses about they already jacked a lot of the premiums be careful affordability and accessibility rel% pretty much it is said that anyone who has ages zero and fivep that's 5% that has to be something on shall described as active early stage to acquire the numbers.
I have that confirmed on the wire or parttime working parents say that they would like to enter the workforce. But that affordability or accessibility is an impediment to do that as we are looking to build back America as we are looking to create opportunity. They were already up 900 fucking% but I just hit 700%.
any specific addressing some of the shortfalls related to affordability of childare would have on that baby all you got to do on the economy. So I I think there's quite a bit of research showing exactly that and we really saw it during the pandemic as as I think you you know and pointed out did I make it role it's not a an issue that we play but boom less than a gone in 60 seconds 10 cents to 50 cents 500% and I still got a couple absolutely Alabama looks at our labor participation yeah that's coming that's confirmed bro I have that on the wire I caught it on the high low ticket here but then the wire I had the confirmation in addressing this head.
I thought I I thought I top ticket. So, thank you so much. Yeah, that was it. You're still wait till the news probably not even on CNBC. There has been some angst vocalized uh about Bloomberg bill and the president's policies being acquired by Shellism is both unfair and premature. Wall Street Journal is the source resiliency um and recent economic data actually continues to reflect confidence in the US economy.
Look at the recent Treasury auction which was notably successful and saw stronger than Don't post your play. I'm gonna have to ban you, brother. I tell you guys, if you're here paying attention to me, I have the monopoly on plays. I'll tell you I made 500% so you can know whether or not premiums have gone on policy.
At the end of the day uh you know if you're paying attention those fundamentals of the economy you know you have everything would you agree that the components of our economy actually don't post your place and flex it% of like I'm saying the plays have already moved in the context of your market expectations and mon and monetary policy discussions.
As you point out, the Treasury market is um working fine just now. Liquidity is adequate and um you know, bond prices are responding to economic events and so bond market's in good shape. In terms of the strength of the economy, I I would strongly agree. Um the labor market's in a solid place. The economy is growing.
Um inflation um is is in a pretty good place, come much closer to 2%. So, it's still it's a very solid economy. We are watching the labor market very closely as we always do and um a couple of things in particular. One is just a very low hiring rate which goes with a low um layoff rate but if we were to start to see layoffs we would see unemployment go up quickly and so we're watching that uh that carefully but we really the uh the labor market has remained solid and I would agree with your overall characterization.
Thank you. Appreciate you being here today. Thank you ma'am. Senator Kim. Yeah, thank you, Chairman. Thank you for coming before us today. You've often said in the past that when it comes to monetary policy that it works with a lag, right? That this is something that you're having to try to assess the data that's before you, right?
I'm thinking about this because, you know, we have the Federal Open Market Committee uh FOMC 5-year review and you were talking about tariffs and the uncertainty of this moment. So I guess I just wanted to ask you how do you balance sort of assessing between more of the backwards looking data that you're able to you know look at more tangibly in that way but also addressing sort of forward-looking models to try to understand where things are heading.
You know that's um that's really the challenge that all forecasters have and um you know really really monetary policy needs to be forward-looking. At the same time we need to be humble about our our you know how hard it is to forecast. So particularly at times of high uncertainty which which I would say I would include now you really want to you want to look at the at the the real data and take signal from that and and not be too brave about uh about what your forecast might be because it's going to be highly uncertain.
So you're saying that in times of greater uncertainty in some ways that makes you more interested in the the backwards looking data to sort of guide you. Well I'd almost flip it. Yes. But I'd almost flip it around and say at a time like that, you don't want to be giving a lot of forward guidance and you don't you don't want to be acting as though you have a lot of certainty about the path forward.
It it it makes sense to move more slowly in in most situations where there's more uncertainty. There are situations where where it would not make sense to move uh slowly, but in most cases, you'd want to move more slowly. Yeah, that's interesting. I mean, you know, I I talked to some of my constituents back home.
There's this one conversation I always had well I had that has really stuck with me where you know a woman was telling me that you know there's so much uncertainty right now in the world and certainly in her life that she says it's it's hard for her to even breathe sometimes she just feels this kind of weight upon her chest and I've thought about that a lot because I try to think through what can we do to try to alleviate that concern alleviate that anxiety for people but you can see it I mean right now whether it's about what's unfolding in the Middle East and the fragility of of what comes Next, when I look at this reconciliation bill before us in the Senate, I do worry not just about the deficit as some of my colleagues have mentioned, but about the potential of significant job loss that we're seeing whether in the healthcare industry, whether in uh the energy industries, and certainly when it comes to tariffs, as you said, trying to think through what comes next in terms of whether deals are struck and at what levels.
Are you taking into account that by sort of an issue based level or like are you looking at sort of the global instability in terms of the different crises that are out there? Is that factoring into how you're thinking about when we're talking about legislation here? I know you're not going to go into the policy per se, but if there's a potential for significant job disruption, is that something that you're looking into as you're forecasting?
Yes. Um, you know, we obviously pay great attention to global events and in an effort to understand what's going on in the economy globally because that that does matter for our economy. So, we pay close attention to all of those things and track them. Ultimately though, we're looking at the US economy and what are the fundamental drivers here and um and then making a judgment based on all of that.
And main mainly, you know, this is a big economy and and we're geographically separated from most of the other big economies in the world. So we have a smaller external sector than most of the European all the European economies for example. So we're really looking at the US and what's happening here.
I I wanted to ask you because you know in central banks in other countries including Bank of England and European Central Bank they've begun modeling the potential macroeconomic effects of artificial intelligence. um you know they're thinking about how they can use AI to be able to do some of the forecast what comes next I guess I wanted to get a sense of what you guys noticed they're not talking in the AI space the conversation is more broad than yesterday on AI and and more than that even monitoring research that's going on everywhere in the world and uh you know speaking of uncertainty it's um it's very clear that it has the potential to make really dramatic changes in our economy, in our workplace, in the jobs of workers, in the way companies work, and all of those things.
And but it it honestly there's a tremendous uncertainty about the timing of that and and what the ultimate consequences will be and what the medium-term consequences will be. I was wondering if the Fed is evaluating AI credit models and how that could potentially deepen disparity in credit access or violate fair lending standards.
Is that something that you've looked into at this point? And yes, absolutely. Is the Fed looking to potentially affirm some industry standards on this? You know, it's something we've been aware of for a long time. There's a lot of research that's been done before generative AI came along. It was it's also just machine learning and technology generally.
Um you you need there are implicit biases that can appear. It's something we're very well aware of and and you know we do work with people to make sure that that uh that doesn't happen. Okay. Thank you. I yield back. Thank you, Senator Banks. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Uh, Chair Pal, can you talk about how our interest rates compare to other first class countries around the world at the higher end and h how does that affect the United States?
Well, I mean, I think that reflects a couple things. One is just that the US economy has outperformed has been stronger than others. uh and I I don't want to pick on any other nations but many other nations have had much lower growth now have lower inflation and are you know have pretty low growth whereas the US economy has really been the outstanding performer and remains that to this day that implies somewhat higher rates you so you say it's higher than higher than most of of of first class countries can you talk about historically where we've matched up with other countries Yeah.
I mean, so let's go let's just go back to the when the pandemic hit, for example. We were at, you know, we had very low rates during that era, but they were by far the highest in the developed world because the US economy was the strongest. Um, the European Union had negative rates. I think the Bank of England was at 75 basis points.
I think we were at 2.4%. So, we were meaningfully higher. And again, it was a time when we were just our our growth was higher. Uh, and their growth was lower and their inflation was lower, our inflation was fine, probably about the same as ours. So, I think we've we've generally had um a little bit higher rates than those countries because they've, you know, they have slower growth, older populations, lower productivity, those kind of things.
We have the strongest economy in the world globally gone up as well. Sorry. Have have interest rates in those countries globally gone up as well? Well, they went up the US all all of those countries had their rates go up quite a bit during the global pandemic inflation, right? And as you know, um many of them have been cutting their rates and we had been too and u we'll at some point resume that but we're we're 100 basis points lower than we were.
I think the if you take the EU and the Bank of England, they've both cut a little more than that um recent how recently? recently, but you know, they're but I think that you know, you you probably read this, but you know, they're either at or close to the or close to the end of their cutting cycles.
Um I know there's been a lot of talk today about um deficits and the national debt, but how much does how much does tax policy affect the economy in the US? I mean, it affects it has big effects over time. It's really not something that drives what we do. it isn't um you know but I I mean I think you know tax policy plays over the long run a huge role in incentivizing investment which helps growth and things like that I think I think it's very very important over the long run certainly more important than monetary policy would would um a $4 trillion tax increase on middle class Americans affect the economy in Now here we're getting into the the bill uh I I I understand I'm I'm asking how that how that would affect the economy and I can only talk about it in theory.
I'm trying to not make any direct comments on on the bill today if I if you'll forgive me. Um but I take your point. My guy, we forgave you for transitory and a lot of things for that. But just there's got to be data that you sit on somewhere that would suggest that large tax increases would affect the economy, would stall economic growth in the US.
You could you could certainly get that out of a model if you wanted to. I mean, but again, I'm I'm I'm inevitably going to be commenting on the bill, right, if I if I answer that question. So, I So, a lot a lot a lot of talk today about inflation. You've you've already agreed that inflation is down from where it was a year ago.
And would you say steadily declining has been Yes, I more than agree to it. I'm very pleased by it. and all all of the experts and you know so so-called experts tell us that tariffs lead to inflation but you seem to you seem to um have suggested already that inflation is if not under control close to being under control.
So inflation's in a really good place. It is definitely in a good place and um you know we have we have a forecast and so does by the way every other you know well brand name forecaster in the country which is very similar to ours that there will be some inflation from tariffs coming not yet but over the course of the coming months and I think it's reasonable to expect that because someone has to pay you know this is hundreds of billions of dollars of of tariffs we're taking in some of that's going to fall on the consumer not all of it's going to all on foreign manufacturers and that that's the only insight we have and we're just kind of wanting to see more data on that before we one one final question about data.
Uh our trade deficits with China, the EU, Canada, Mexico have all significantly dropped recently. What what does the data tell us about that? Well, I think that's how how that would affect inflation. How it would affect inflation? I don't know that it has implications for inflation, but it obviously reflects the tariffs.
Uh I think recently you've seen Chinese uh imports come down quite a bit. Thank you. I yield back. Thanks, Senator Blunt Rochester. Thank you, Mr. Chairman and Ranking Member Warren. Uh Chair Pal, welcome back. Um inflation has come down meaningfully from its peak. Um and there are signs of moderation in the broader community economy, but prices for rent and other essential services remain high and the outlook is still uncertain.
Okay, you're like circling back. These are the late stage ones. I got like three comments on real estate demand for places like yesterday. Like I said, today was more broad and material than the other day, making it harder. Yeah, we're not really moving much on anything. Hope you realize that remember news was the latest thing.
This is not something you would say. Um but uh at the same time, while our Republican colleagues are pushing for tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, I'll tell you guys, I see you in the chat and some of you are like, "How is it this? How is it that? How come the economy, how come if prices like I have been trying to hammer this message in your guys' heads from the beginning of the year, it all has to do with money supply.
That's it. That's why you guys are like, "How come it?" Cuz dude, they just dumped a bunch of money everywhere for the last like five years and they're about to do it again. Do you understand? That's it. That's why That's why it's like, well, the prices are high, gas is high. How come people still like, who the [ __ ] buys anything, bro?
You, bro, I have a lot of money and I am still baffled cuz I'm like, who the [ __ ] buys anything? Cuz I remember when I didn't have anything. I'm like, what the [ __ ] How could you buy anything, bro? I remember filling up $20 in a [ __ ] gas tank for a week. So, you know, it's I don't get it either, but I do get it.
Like I'm telling you it it's like it's the the the world is foolish my friend, you know, and it doesn't make sense and you're like you would think everybody would be broke and you would think it would be a very stressful scenario and it is for vulnerable people. It really is. That is why I've been saying this about immigrants and other and lower incomes for a long time.
Not just now when it comes to housing and all these other things. It really does have that effect, but it's just like there's so much [ __ ] money in the world right now. ever since they started printing it and they're going to do it again. And that's why I'm saying it's wild, but like that's why you're getting this.
That's why it's very hard. It's going to be very hard to feel the big e economy slowdown with there's this much money. The money has to get trapped in people's hands and they want to not use it like Japan. Uh or kind of like what happened in OA. But the point is there's just so much there's more money floating around now than ever before in history.
There is it's easier to get your hands on a dollar today than any other time in the last 5 years. It there they have flooded the system with dollars. Again, a 1.7 trillion deficit, even if it's Donald Trump, that's a lot of money that they're going to do it again. That's why that's why everything is so weird.
That's why the prices, the cars, the survival of it. And it's like, how is it the lack of corporate defaults? That's why corporate real estate and even commercial is finding a way to stay alive. You know what I'm saying? It's just like there's all this money floating around and then there's all these deals backed on old money and old loans and it's all way lower and it's just there's so much going on.
But yeah, eventually it'll catch up. But we're we're still in the very short-term process of like just handling all of this money, bro. You're you're on a money overdose. Like I guess I guess it's like uh it's like taking a bunch of aderall and caffeine and then you guys are like, "How come I can't go to sleep?
I'm laying in bed and I'm my mind is tired and I'm so tire I can't go to bed. How come I close my eyes and I won't fall asleep for some? I'm in bed, the lights are off. I can't fall asleep because Yeah, bro. You just took a lot of [ __ ] stimulants. You get what I It's all still floating in the system, bro.
You know that? You know what I'm saying, bro? You got to give this like 24 hour. You're not going to bed, bro. The economy is not going to bed, you guys. That's why it's going to it'll overheat, but it's not going to stop. Uh, and with this much money just [ __ ] just injected every single day and minute and year.
So, yeah. Tada. That's why I hope that helps. I I really do. I really hope. And I've been trying to tell you this. I have been trying to explain this from the beginning of the year, end of last year even. And that's why I was telling you I'm so fascinated and fixated by this big, beautiful bill. But that's why right away I told all of you, yes, I support Donald Trump and I voted for the man.
But right when I saw that number, I was like, "Oh, we're [ __ ] We're doing it again." So that's all that matters, bro. All that matters is the money supply. Again, think what you want with politics. Go be smarter. Go be a better person than me. God bless you. I'll still love you and pray for you. But if you want to make money, you want to protect your finances.
You and you want to be positioned well in this economy, you got to start understanding that. That's why we hold long terms. That's why real estate I do think all of you should have it because with all this money floating around I don't think you're going to get mad that you own real property. Uh and then again if if the dollar going down all these weird things you know that's what's creating this uh you know perpetual just economy doing good.
So yeah, other instant focus on everything else. The key is is this is a global competition. I promise other countries are going to implement it. It is going to drop 80 billion. It's above 80 billion less competitive. If we don't either at the buyout price now or that's including transition is very I think very important to note.
I want to talk about SLR for a minute. I think uh you all indicated the balance sheet's going to continue to shrink. we're not going to get to pre-COVID levels. Um and uh which was I think somewhere around $4 trillion. I guess the question is um you guys expect to hold higher levels of central uh banks to hold higher levels of central uh bank reserves uh than we have in previous years.
Do you agree with that? I don't think we'll get all the way back to where we were, but we're still shrinking. Is it fair to say that the SLR should be updated to reflect the evolving preference? Yes. Thank you. Uh Fed Now, it's cost $545 million. You know, it's analogous to my hairline. I've never really liked Fed Now.
Um so, I'm like, maybe we should adjust to the time, but um I spent $545 million to implement implement it now. I think you're expected to spend another $245 million in 2025. So, the total price I didn't even tell you the drama. Um, I'll tell you when PAL is done. Act requires the Fed to cover all the direct and indirect costs actually incurred.
So, can you give me an idea of when we're going to see a fee structure that's going to generate the uh the uh and and actually pay for this implementation including the expected operations. I was not that fast. You're right. That is our obligation under the law is to have it be selfunding and we have during which that's supposed to happen uptake has been steady but not rapid.
That's it. You're going to be able to get that playing this game to not you're going to need to keep up the charade. I think it's probably still achievable. I I really think not 100% clear that we're going to achieve it. He's being really weird now. Yeah, that that's what I'm concerned. And I wonder if if that pricing is there given uh uh you know what I'm saying?
Like I'll forgive you. We'll just [ __ ] drop. You know what I'm saying? Like it's okay, bro. You caved. I get it. We'll you still have a great legacy. I'm excited. You know what I'm saying? Like concerned about the debt. Um like bro, if I bet you he could have been chair for another four years. I would have kept him for four years.
We had the refl inflation reduction act that cost us $1 trillion. And we had the PACE act that many of my colleagues I was one of nine Republicans that didn't vote for it that also cost us a trillion dollar. So I'm I'm I'm excited to see that my colleagues on the other side of the aisle want to get serious about our means.
Have you ever like lost your car keys? I um and then you blame your girlfriend. I did have a question. I think you just like and then you like you try to blame and you're like no you moved it and then you end up looking and then you find it in the obvious place but then you have to keep looking and then you have to act like you see what I'm saying is just playing a game bro capital requirements cuz he's done very well on the enough time he might be right but I don't think he will this time.
So we voted unanimously to remove that after they after many years of having it in place, they they did satisfy uh the requirements we' put in place and we removed the cap along with the other agencies. And uh you think your fact-based decision uh you stand by it? I do. Very good. Uh last thing is Walmart I've got other questions I'll submit for the record chair but Walmart on April 9th I think withdrew their uh forward guidance and they indicated the reason that they were doing that is there was uncertainty and it seems to have been timed somewhat with the uncertainty around trade.
Um so I would just suggest for my colleagues I don't know if you can respond to this or not. I won't ask you tax go up another question but I really want to but I know what your answer is going to be. You're a good dancer. Um uh I uh I I think that it is fair to say that if we there is going to be a correlation to increasing prices and Walmart having made the decision to withdraw their guidance is probably the best testament that they know that they may have to deal with cost and maybe inflation characterize that is maybe a likely reason that they withdrew their guidance.
It might be, you know, I I saw that they had I don't I didn't have a chance to go back and check why, but Well, if you tease through the language, it seems almost certain that they think that some of their input cost uh we're going to go up and they need to manage their margins. So, I'm just telling my colleagues, you know, we we just need to be realistic.
Uh that if if if you have a major household name withdrawing guidance because of uncertainty, they've got a lot of experts that probably are suggesting there may be some inflationary risk. We haven't realized gold names are going up and keep our eyes open. The spy still near the low like I'm telling you to pass.
I don't think that's weird mode up or down. Now the last mean anything until you break the range. I I just want to mention is that uh you can't respond to this. But I will tell you, if the Democrats succeed in preventing us from uh uh from avoiding the biggest tax hike in the history of this country, it is going to cause great damage to the people who can least afford it.
Um you don't get to respond to this. Giving you the economic collapse or delay. I'm sorry. I didn't realize she was here. I'm sorry. We were open to keep the party going pop another money supply to continue the tax cuts. Very simple. Thank you sir also ros thank you so much first part and ranking member Warren.
Thank you so much for hosting today's hearing. We thank you also chairman Powell uh for your tremendous service to our country. I very much enjoyed the meeting that we had earlier this year uh and look forward to working with you. Uh many of my colleagues today have been here and have rightly discussed concerns regarding how tariffs are affecting consumers and businesses.
And I'd like to highlight a specific business in Maryland that encapsulates the harm that I believe this administration is inflicting. Um but also the resilience of a proud Maryland small business. Bay Dog is a successful pet brand based on Kent Island. uh one founded by Barton O'Brien who's a Marine veteran who served three combat tours overseas.
Mr. Mr. O'Brien has calculated that if he were to make his products in the United States, he would have to raise his prices 400% just to break even. Uh the tariffs he believes are a burdensome tax that could put companies like his out of business. Uh but the damage doesn't stop there. Bay Dog is sold in thousands of other brick andmortar stores across the country, all locallyowned small businesses who similarly have to raise prices or lose sales to pay the president's tax.
Mr. O'Brien started planning for this last summer when uh President Trump started talking about tariffs during the campaign. He stockpiled inventory and has committed to keeping his prices stable this year. But what Bayog uh is asking is what is he to do if the tariffs are in place next year? Mr. O'Brien has calculated that he won't have to just raise prices.
He'll like likely have to cut his staff to stay in business. So, Chair Powell, there are 34 million small businesses in America, one for every 10 people. And if small businesses like Bay Dog have to lay off staff or go out of business altogether, what will that do to unemployment in this country? And what effect will that have on the broader economy?
Um I mean just mechanically I I I don't want to comment on particular tariff policies but uh sure if if business if companies go out of business then that'll hurt employment and activity and what we will see is of course and we have so many small businesses what we're facing now is that very prospect um is that we're going to have so many um and we believe that you know the inflation caused by these tariffs um let me ask you another question really have a very negative impact.
What if you had no tariffs in taxes? What does this mean for American workers? Well, the other thing is I think the tariffs are still in motion. You just can't use premature to say exactly. Again, everyone likes to be quiet and secret. We're kind of tax decision to do anything. No, it's just we want to see more and it the situation evolves day by day, month by month.
So I mean it makes sense but like I'm telling you there has been a lot of another question in our meeting some businesses love this some business monetary policy you've heard a lot of ane of the long-term challenge of housing supply demand again I think it's not this issue the same way I did as county exeunities that don't miss out on the fact there's now going to be other areas or again the planning.
So studies have estimated overion invested annually in housing in recent years and again we're talking about that supports affordable homes for working class families speak to the need to better see the difference between this private investments into affordable housing construction. Uh I'm working with private sector and and nonprofit stakeholders on legislation now but just wanted to know if you could comment on that.
So u I I would say this um interest rates are are you know slightly restrictive at this point modestly restrictive and that's that is weighing on economic activity in the housing market sector but you're really talking about a different problem. It's not one that the Fed can really address and that is we have a a longerr run housing shortage.
Many other uh advanced economy countries have this too and we it's not not our tool our tools don't really work to to affect that. It's really elected people and you saw this as county executive. It's it's things that the legislature can do uh that that can really address that not us. It's not about interest rates.
All right. Well, now I understand one other issue. The Fed is evaluating the leverage ratio rules um regarding the amount of capital required to be held by banks to withstand unforeseen risk. and I'm hoping you can then provide some insight um as to what potential changes this framework are meant to achieve.
Um on the other hand, I understand that access to capital is paramount particularly for communities I represent. So um and I understand concerns that a change in these requirements could could affect the resilience of the banking sector. Um though I know you cannot speak to the specifics um of the coming proposal, would you share some insights into what problem the proposed rulemaking um is meant to solve and and are you concerned that it could lead to a a deterioration resilience of the banking sector?
I'd be glad to. So the idea behind it is that still going upris uh the c the binding capital requirement to be we want banks to be sensitive to the risks that they're taking. If the leverage ratio is not risk sensitive, it treats every asset as equally risky. So, um, if that's binding, then that interferes with banks incentives to to manage their risks and actually discourages banks from taking on relatively low risk activity.
So, we've always at the Fed wanted the riskbased capital uh to be the binding one and and the leverage ratio to be the back stop. And so that's this proposal that we have that we're going to be meeting on in a couple of hours puts out a for puts out for comment a proposal to restore the uh you know the backs stop characteristics of the leverage ratio.
It should we think it should make for for it will it will not in any way diminish the safety and soundness of the u of the financial system and it will allow for banks to undertake lower risk. Thanks. Thank you so much. Thank you Mr. Chair. Yes ma'am. Thank you. Hey M. For senators who wish to submit questions for the hearing record, those questions are due one week from today, Wednesday, July 2nd.
Chairman Powell, you have 45 days from that day to submit your responses to questions for the record. Thank you for being here. That's it. This committee is adjourned. This committee is adjourned. Oh, thank God. All right. I got drama. I have so much drama. So much. Do you guys want drama or do you want peace?
I could give you peace. I don't want to give you drama if you don't want the drama, but I do thought it did surprise me. You know, I was very surprised. So, do you want it or do you want me to save you that? But good good afternoon if it's the afternoon for you. It's still the morning here on the West Coast.
But yeah, guys, uh I was just explaining it earlier. Just keep in mind, you know, everything's green right now. Equalade is red, but SPY is literally green right now about to go red. The NASDAQ is green. But it's just like, dude, think about how we got here. Cuz I know a lot of you are going to come in and be like, "Oh my gosh, why are we dumping?" But like, look, remember we would do this.
You hit a high, you chill. Oh. Oh. Oh, why are we dumping? Oh yeah, Rebo. Why are we dumping? We're dumping. Oh, you see what I'm saying? So, until we break out of the range, think structural, think like developments. Otherwise, man, y'all better just follow my soothing voice. And I hope you're prepared.
Medronic again. But okay, you want the drama? I'll give you the drama. Are you ready? Here's the drama, bro. Dude, did you know Jerome Powell? Are you ready? I love the guy, bro. I do. I just like I told you already. I think he needs to humbly just just stop with the games, bro. You know, but do you know that he's spending $1.9 billion to remodel the Fed?
Dude, I love I love following Bill PE, the head of the FHFA. Bro, you have no idea. This guy just talking [ __ ] on Powell. And they repost this article, bro. And I didn't know that. Apparently, he's doing like a $2 billion renovation at the Fed. They're they're like they're building like sky tow like it's like a mezzanine and like a rooftop terrace and like modernizing and Yeah, bro.
But they $2 billion at the highest. Like, bro, that's what I'm saying. Like, why wouldn't you cut interest rates so you don't have to pay that much interest on your renovation that the taxpayers are paying for? But yeah, isn't that crazy? That blew my mind. And then, are you ready for this? Shout out to Tyrie.
He tagged me on this one. And everybody was texting this. I'm going to talk to my boy in New York. Uh Olivia is out in New York. But dude, this is crazy. So apparently people started googling what socialism was after the polls closed. Yeah. And then bro, I listen, I'm not going to lie to you. I have no idea who this person is.
Y'all keep bringing up this New York person. So I did some research, but I don't know anything about them. And what I already read, holy [ __ ] bro. You guys are great. Yeah, bro. What the [ __ ] So, and then, bro, because everyone kept asking. I was getting text messages, dude. What is this? So, key proposal, freeze rent on stabilized units.
So, right off the bat, [ __ ] rent control. Now, there's just no rent. They're going to freeze rent on anything that was already rent stabilized. Then they're going to build 200,000 homes, which is good. But then they're going to crack down on landlords, support homeowners, and fight deed theft. Then this is the one that keeps getting a lot of headlines.
City operated grocery stores. So now in New York, the bodega is going to be owned by the government. The government bodega. I That's amazing. That's amazing. That one's great. Universal free bus and transit. So you went from te from from charging to go over the bridge to now all free travel. Sounds good.
No cost universal health care, baby baskets for newborns. Raise minimum wage to $30 by 2030. Regulate the gig delivery apps. Launch Department of Community Safety with outreach in subways. Expand gun violence. Tax 11 12% corporate tax rate in New York. Additional 2% on millionaires. Higher tax auditors.
Cut no bid t contracts. Recoup fines from landlords. Other priorities LGBTQIA plus rights. Immigrant protections. Trump proofing NYC. Healthc care. Climate action. Uphold sanctuary city policies. Long live the king. So there you have it. There you have it, my friends. Mhm. I know. Isn't that crazy? That's New York.
That's it. So it's a socialist dem a openly socialist Democrat. So he's like a socialist. And they're like, "Yeah, we're down." And and then Google searches for socialism in New York rose after the election. It's going to be amazing, dude. Governmentowned grocery stores. Listen, listen. I'm just so happy we're moving on a cult compound right now.
You know what I'm saying? In a world of socialism, you know, you know what? I'm just so glad. You know, I look forward to having my my third my 30 acres in my truck. Damn it. God bless America. So yeah, bro. I don't know. I couldn't do that. Y'all ask me how I live in Cali. That's how like New York like city and then that I couldn't I couldn't bank of the James.
What is this? I was only in the primary. Oh, so there you go. My sister moving. I don't know. I don't know. She lo I don't think she'll ever leave San Francisco. I think once you get like stuck in the San Francisco hole, you're never leaving. That's it, bro. Just, you know, we'll pray for soilent in the bodeas government grocery stores.
Get your soy today. Fake me. You were there for 3 years. Yeah. It didn't like it didn't take in your system. Your system rejected it and then you fleed. Good for you. But yeah, I now can buy a F350, bro. I now have a perfect excuse. All right. Well, it's 9:15. I I don't know, man. I kind of have an idea.
We'll wait. It's honestly We'll just go like 15 minutes early. I was just going to go to Felo. We'll give it 15 more minutes. But yeah, guys, I don't think anything's happened, bro. You know that, right? And like I'm saying, you better get used to this. You saw how we melted up here. Don't be naive and don't be so jumpy that every move you're like, "Oh, up, down." Like, just think about it, bro.
We've gone over a lot. And dude, it is what we're wrapping up June this month and then you you guys are about to get literally the spending bill. And like we were just telling you, man, that's very important, you guys. The money supply, that's all that's going to matter. I mean, like, look, dude, the dollar, the economy, the market.
I mean, dude, if they're about to spend that much money, you're about to have a lot of government demand. Shell downplays BP rumors, uh, reported. Oh, nice. Well, not really. It's fading. The plays are still up, but you're now Is there a bid? Yeah, plays are still up like 30% now, but no more 500. I can I only have the free ones left.
You can ride it off with salt, dude. It's going to be amazing. I don't know. So, I had some issues, though. We had problems with the cult compound thing yesterday. The plots were not exactly what I wanted. Uh then I did find out like I thought they last sold it like 10 15 years ago, but that was one of the plots.
So I did find out they bought it in 2020. I thought these guys owned it for like 10 15 years. So these guys are just flipping it from 2020. So that kind of made me a little sad. But then I saw another couple good comps. So yeah, but we're still working on that. We get two weeks. Two weeks to really decide it.
It has septic and it has a well, but you don't have to use it. It's also with the city, believe it or not. That's what's crazy. So, you have like gas, sewer, electricity, all from the city, but then it's also has everything for off-grid. So, you have both. So, we don't have to use the septic if we don't want to.
Uh, you know, you are you have sewer. That's the thing though. The well is not wired to the electricity though. That's what So, it's technically not off-rid there. And then it needs a battery. So, it has solar, but there's no battery. So, technically, you're not off-rid. It has the setup, but it's technically not not off-rid yet.
And then the well is uh like I'm saying, the well isn't tied to electricity. They run the well on a generator. So that's I'm hoping we could get some credits for that. But that does kind of bring it down a little bit. Can we pull the chat on if we melt up or melt down? I mean, you can, but I don't think it matters.
Like I think you all know what's going to happen. Just look at what's happened since Easter. It's the same exact setup. You will react to bad news. Until there is bad news, you're going to just slowly move up. So, I don't think that's why I'm like I wouldn't confuse yourself. And then, you know, essentially the best part is that until we get back into like breaking a range, I don't think the momentum really changes.
And then, you know, the funny part just brings you right back up to like November. PP could be split. Yeah, they they're giving updates on that. Even walking it back a little bit on the Fed. We could only pull that matters. Do you have a longterm? Amen, bro. Amen. And well, we'll see, man. If this spending bill, if all of this salt, imagine salt and all this money and then depending on what the FHA FA does or FHA, just keep your eye on real estate.
That's what I'm going to look for. So, I don't I haven't confirmed it yet, but I do think if we get certain programs or it'll be it might affect I think low in high inventory is going to be bad and then expensive homes might not be as good. But then I do still think lower income housing will be a depending on what happens and what credits they give.
That could be a driver. But we didn't hear about it a lot today on the Senate thing. You heard way more about it yesterday. What's the date today? Boom. Hey, remember the VIX was going up earlier before we hit the low and gold is climbing. Dollar is low. I got two Teslas. I thought that was circle. But again, most of the market today was down.
You had that big Mac 7 big tech. They they led a little bit. So Dow Jones 13 green, 17 in the red. NASDAQ 100, 33 in the green, 68 in the red, and then S&P 141 green, 360 in the red. So it's pretty much the same setup from the morning. Oh, I got I was like, why would I get a big bong, bro? It's crazy.
A gong. I feel you. But we'll see, man. We still need to close, but I'm getting nervous. That's it. We We'll see what happens when we get the the uh what's it called? The inspection. But I hope it works. I I hope you guys are ready. So, I don't know, man. We'll see. You You guys might I might be able to see everybody like at least once a month.
We will have a dedicated place. So, I don't know, man. It's going to Let's let the Lord provide, God willing. Let's see where we get lead about Micron. I mean, it could be big. They're kind of like FedEx and some of the other ones where they could price a lot and the real risk is it doesn't move as much.
But Micron's been on fire. So, it's had big earnings even from last year. But then prior to last year, two years ago, that didn't really move on earnings. So, that's what you got to think about. Can you come, dude? We were actually like everybody could come except for Nick Bowen for like he's just too nice and peaceful, you know?
We don't want your vibe is too OD. Like it's so amazing. We don't want it to we don't want people to get jealous. So yeah, everybody but Nick Bowen actually. Of course, man. Of course. Eli Lily again. NVO got washed. There's Spain. They got investigated by Spain, but I don't think that was the real thing.
I think that was part of it, but then it just really started fading. Can you go? I don't know who's going to I Dude, we're going to go really slow. So, if it took me 5 years to even get me a compound, like, what the [ __ ] do you guys think is going to happen? Like, you know what I'm saying? You're at Jo.
You're on Josh's timing now, bro. I'm just Welcome to my world. We're going to go st We're going to go at my pace. You know what I'm saying? So, I don't know. I don't know how it's going to work. Little by little. Like I said, we have some ideas, but you know, we could work it in and then we'll see.
You know, the goal would be little by little and then once I, you know, the way I see it, once you are able to visit it and if you visit it and you're legit, that's going to be easier for you to go in the future. You see what I'm saying? But then, yeah, we got Chadfax. I have a lot of other documentation, BBB list, and yeah, I'm I'm going to be very strict about it.
I mean, not too many people. Last time I gave away a house to people, they destroyed it. So, you know, that was almost 10 years ago, so I've got to learn a little bit more. So, yeah, we'll see. But it'll be a a very slow process, but yeah, I'm excited. We'll see. God willing, bro. God willing. Or we just keep the long term and we back out and just keep the long term and then that's it.
But then if the long term goes down, you're going to be like, "Oh, I could have bought a house. I should have bought a house. Oh, no. They I want a basketball court. But yeah, we were talking about it yesterday cuz we like, "Dude, we don't know what the fuck." Cuz I was telling LT my cult idea and I was like, "Yeah, you know, we need to everybody wakes up at 4:00 a.m.
He thinks I'm insane. I think I'm normal, but and then spy going lower. But yeah, I was like at bare minimum, we came to the conclusion that at least once a month though, like we will own our own event center. You know what I'm saying? Like that's it. Like you could just And then that way some people could come out.
I'm not going to be there. I'll show up for like maybe one of the days, but then some of y'all could chill for like a week or or a weekend and then that's it. But I don't think I will be having people staying longer than a week at any given time. So, but yeah, we'll see. I don't know, dude. I have no idea what's going to happen.
Oil's going up. Yeah. Why is oil I mean, you did have negative Israeli comments. Cold music room. It's going to take time. So that's why like we what we're going to do is we have to operate with whatever we have now. So whatever we buy it as we could like put up a little bit of things but anything we want we got to get it approved.
Like HOA I'm not worried about them. I'm talking like the city. So LT is already working on it. We're we're talking 9 months to approve, nine months to build. So 18 months is what we would do to build. like that's where we start getting all the new [ __ ] on the property if we end up keeping it. But yeah, that's where we want to build like a basketball court, a studio, and god knows whatever else.
But yeah, but then again, I don't know. I'd say we just don't even have internet on the property. See, there's many routes you could go, brother. Many routes you could go. All right. 12 or 9:30 12:30 Eastern fire sprinklers. Yeah, man. Let's give me uh give me a couple weeks and uh I will put out some offers for you guys.
You'll see. I think uh I'll I'll make a video. You guys will see the land and you let me know what you can add to it. Welcome to the cult. ADP Kelloggs. Yeah, man. again. You have 60% a little bit more in the red. That's it. They're going up to the sequoas. Yeah, bro. It's good, man. Silence is a good thing, says the guy who talks seven hours a day.
Yeah, it's very good. Big fan. animal. We could I was I think we should give it to a Chad. I'll let one of you lease it. One of you should run the land. If you know how to run a horse business, I'll just give you the land. You pay the fee and then you keep all the profit. And there you go. Yeah, there's I don't know what's going to happen.
Tell too many ideas, bro. You're in this for the life change, not a long term. My brother, the long term will change the life. And then again, I do hope though all of this talk, man, should highlight real estate. And this is why we are getting our long terms. And then again, depending on what happens here, spending bill or not, I mean, it's going to be a good combo.
Intel confirm plans. Yeah, that's remember I was saying watch mobile eye earlier. It just reacted now. It's crazy. Only one I think. Uh yeah, the BP one. That was that was the only thing I did today. Stalantis. I don't like the autos, especially Stellantis. I mean, they're they're like right in the middle of the EU trade stuff.
You know what I'm saying? But I I' I kind of like Ford better, but I just don't really like the autos. If I did like a auto, I'd take Toyota. because then you get the Japan exposure too. And then SPY, you haven't really moved for what, an hour. You have been near this low. SPY barely green. NASDAQ up just under a quarter.
Nvidia shareholders approve executive pay. So Jensen can sell 800, was it 800 billion? something ridiculous or no, was it 800 million this year? Very fascinating. They're going. Yeah, I don't. But Stalantis isn't if you like the autos, but I haven't been I haven't been interested in it. Last time people wanted autos was EV.
It was a trend, but then it faded. But yeah, I just don't even like them. All right. Why hasn't Netflix split that? I don't know. I mean, they did it what, seven years ago or whatever. I can't believe Pepsi went down. Watch those staples coming into July. That one's still on the list. Shell denies BP rumor.
So now it's going low. At first CNBC said there was more, but a straight denial that is an update. So watch. It's coming back down. Crisper. I like the technology, but I don't know where they're at. And then, you know, you got to kind of be careful with biotechs in the long term. Like, that's going to be I'm assuming if you're considering that, you better have everything hammered down.
You better have good growth, good dividend. You know what I'm saying? And I I wouldn't be putting a lot into it. But it's a lower price. I mean, I would like it at a much lower price. I remember seeing crisper back in the day. And then there is some other, you know, promising gene editing. I think the technology uh you know some people think it will violate religion and [ __ ] but at the end of the day I do think yes this was the one from yesterday.
I I think it's a great technology. I think it's it's like gamechanging but yeah other than that it's uh I just kind of don't like the price but I I could I could understand the appeal. I could I I would like that more than many other plays. I I like that kind of better than like a Stellantis or anything else.
Yeah, you can make a lot, but that's why you gamble on them. If you would like to be uh gambling, but don't call that investing. That's not your long-term portfolio. You know what I'm saying? If you are trying to make a lot of money on biotechs, I wouldn't lie to yourself and call it uh an investment.
And that's why I'm saying I've seen people put like Abby is biotech. You got to they have drugs. You know what I'm saying? Fizer, but they're much more established. So, you're not betting on a on a medicine becoming the big thing. So, crisper, that's what you are betting on. But I think it's as long as you don't go too crazy, it could be there.
But for now, I I would still say no to this because it's higher up, still at somewhat of a premium. And like I'm saying, just right now in an environment where Pepsi is still low, this is where you want to make sure your foundation is solid. So, if you don't have your foundation ready, I I think this might get in your way.
Maybe it'll help for a little bit. But yeah, but I like the tech. If you're asking me business industry-wise, gene editing is hot and it's been hot and it has been, you know, one of your modern technological advancements in the last decade. And I I think it's big. So, yeah. Where is it? I showed you that one.
about deo dr. I feel like I've been asked this, but is it construction materials or what am I thinking? But yeah, I don't know about it. Beverages. Oh, Johnny Walker, Crown Royal, Sak Smirnoff, Captain Morgan. So, yeah, I know this company. That's what I was saying. It's founded in 1886 in London. So, yeah, you know the brand and like you probably have interacted with it.
I think alcohol will be around in 10 years, but I don't think it's going to be the same trends it was. But yeah, I mean I could if you drink a lot, I probably wouldn't invest in it, but because again, I I think nicotine is a better trend, but at that it it meets criteria. I think it'll be around in 10 years.
It's at a low price. I don't know what's been going on with it, but yeah, I think that one that opts to your own personal decision. That's the thing. Remember we were just talking about it like they were saying like the younger generations like alcohol is on a permanent decline right now. Let me see if I could get you the data.
Is this it? So yeah, there's I mean you could just like search it. Go on like Twitter and you'll see some of them, but like so essentially uh yeah, alcohol this was made possibly permanent decline per Bloomberg. And then they're saying since the 70s, uh, all of the alcohol trends have just been going down.
Then there's one more. And this one, in 2023, the volume of alcoholic spirits in the US declined for the first time in 30 years. So, and last year, bourbon had its steepest decline of the century. So, like people don't like alcohol anymore. I don't like alcohol again. And like the young guys like they like nicotine.
So I don't know if we had like a you know people like oh recession people drink I think they're going to smoke more this time around. But yeah so like I'm saying if you I think alcohol is going to be around in 10 years. It's so it's not going to disappear. This these are brands you all know about. So that one just up to you and you know your port like your portfolio and depending what else you have.
But I just I would probably invest in cigarettes more than alcohol if we're going to go in that area. A flask even drinking. Yeah. I don't know. Alcohol is not there's many reasons from the generation to even inflation and a lot of other things and like all the [ __ ] alcoholic boomers. So there's a lot that goes into it.
Sam. Yeah. A while ago. That was just a trade. A bad trade. But I never owned it for like the long term. Yeah. Jewel. Mhm. They put vape sensors in the school bathrooms. What the [ __ ] a vape sensor? I didn't even know that existed. Who makes those? How do we get into that? They got vape sensors. That'll be a wave.
I would love to invest in that. Who got the patent? I did not even know. Is that real? Where's a vape sensor? If you just tell me a smoke alarm, I'm going to slap you. Yeah, if it was just a normal smoke detector. I'm talking like is there like new tech where it could detect like a nonsmokeless odor?
Like because again it's not smoke. Like a vape is vapor. Like I don't know what it is. I don't know. It's like cotton in a battery and then it I don't even know what the [ __ ] it is. They're already finding ways to block it. Halo smart sensor. No way. Yeah. Honestly though, so like listen, bro, I it's going to relate to FO.
All of you guys, if you guys have kids in like middle school or high school, I think you should talk to them about vaping. I think you should bring a vape home and show it to them and be like, "Look, look at it, touch it, get it out of your system cuz you know it's an epidemic, right?" Cuz when I was in high school, I was a child.
That's when smokeless the first ever before Zen, right before Zen, I was a baby and they had snus and we were doing that in school, bro. You know what I'm saying? like and we were like getting [ __ ] up off of it. So, I could only imagine uh like the [ __ ] vape sticks nowaday cuz it's easy, it's accessible, it tastes like candy, it's everywhere.
So, just I don't know, man. You'll see what I'm talking about. Uh, snus is just like snuss is um it's a European tobacco, but like so like 15 20 years ago when it first started hitting America, uh, Camel came out with snus and then it was like a spitless. So it was like a pouch of dip, but then it was like the first spitless that arrived in America and I loved it back in the day cuz I was a kid and we loved and then you could do it in school.
That was the whole point. That's really what what it that's the market it hit. They didn't advertise it like that, but that's what would happen is that you could now do it in school and you could conceal it. So yeah, then that's what and then a couple years later Zin came out and then 10 years later Zin got popular.
That's what I'm saying. I knew about Zinn before everybody. You guys, Zinn was not all of you. If you were like actively pack and chew, you saw Zen a decade ago. It just got popular recently and then it all started with snus or snooze and then Yeah. and here we are. But like I'm saying, I was doing that [ __ ] in high school and hiding it.
So that's what I'm saying with the vapes. Y'all better uh I mean you your kids probably doing it. So I I hope you at least are I wouldn't be weird about it with them. I would at least kind of take away the mystique. But yeah, it's crazy. Mhm. It didn't take off. Yeah, it didn't take off. No, that was again that's why like when you look at the trends of like MMO and I've been telling you guys about like smokeless has been around but it's been gradual.
It just blew up with Zen and then all of them just started then the young generation just went crazy over smokeless non-tobacco just literally nicotine salt and [ __ ] So crazy. Mhm. But yeah, long story short though, this is not alcohol. That's why we had this conversation cuz I didn't know this company.
I know all of their brands, but I didn't know they were around. But yeah, like so their stock is down, but so is the trends of the industry. Okay, spies going down. French Mcron spoke to Netanyahu highlighted importance of respecting Israel Iran ceasefire. Mcron told Netanyahu he shares with him the objective.
Iran should never have a nuke. Nuke. Okay. Spy going lower though. You just wked into another low. They made Zen because vapes are more dangerous. Well, I'm think that's true, but like I'm saying here, Zin has existed for I think Zin existed before vapes. Before they started making these little China vapes and even like the [ __ ] sauce and you build your own vape [ __ ] they never like like Zen was around.
That's why I always tell you guys most of this stuff that like gets really commercially successful, you probably know about it in advance. Like most things aren't that as new as you think. Like if something gets popular, like really popular, it's probably not brand new. You know what I'm saying? Like Zen is just exploded recently.
But I'm telling you, it was around when I was in high school. Like literally Zynn, the brand, it was around. You get what I'm saying? Let's see. So yeah, like but I I think it it preceded the vaping trend. Kellanova, Mars remain optimistic. Uh, that's only European investigation if you recall. Yeah, bro.
You're flushing a little bit. I know, man. All of the They paved the way for the vaping. Now you have all these kids doing it and they make it cool. There was a time where like if you were vaping, you just look like a complete loser. She said, "You have to walk around with this like giant contraption and then you were just blowing cotton candy sticks of smoke and people are like, "What the [ __ ] is wrong with you?" You're like, "I got my juice.
All you do is fill it in." And then then they're like, "What the [ __ ] is this, bro?" Like, you just in it, bro. Like, it's actually crazy that like it's became cool. And now kids are like, cuz I remember it looked it looked hella weird, bro. You're like, "What's the [ __ ] wrong with you, bro? It's lithium ion.
Okay, calm the [ __ ] down, dude. All right. All right. Oh, we lost him. Like if you were like I don't know how to explain it any better than this. Like back in the day if you were walking around with one of those vape mods, you just look like you played pinball professionally. Like you know what I'm saying?
I that's it's really random, but I hope it gives you the visual. But everybody who was vaping just looked like they played pinball professionally. Like you know what I'm saying? Like they had a machine and like Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Pinball. And like they did the they had the high score and like they were just they played pinball.
That's that's the first thing that comes to my mind. I'm like, who the [ __ ] You're like, what? It just nothing about it just fit in. And you're like, I don't know, man. All right, whatever. If it makes you happy, bro. If it makes you happy. Good time, man. Good time. bought a $200 one. That was back in the day.
That was like It was like the iPhones. Tech, bro. Tech. Still have crisper. That's good though. We just went through a couple long-term targets. Where's even target? How was I in high school? What do you mean? Do you mean like my personality or you like how could somebody like myself attend non higher education?
I don't know what you're asking me, but uh I I don't know how I thank God my parents put me in school and we grew up in America. So that's how I went to high school and I didn't drop out. I didn't get anybody pregnant. I didn't do any, you know, that's it. I did good. But other than that, I was pretty nerdy.
That's it. I think how I was in high school explains me now. I'm always going to be the middle child. I will just never like, you know, I wasn't like really nerdy, but then I wasn't cool. So, I played sports, but I wasn't a jock. I was in AP classes, but they asked me where to buy weed. So, I just never really, again, like I said yesterday, bro, I played basketball at LA Fitness.
Bro, I hated it. I hated it. I played a lot. It was actually a lot of fun. But then there was like half of the court was like 55 and up and then the other court was like high school kids and then you got me. I'm built like a high schooler. My hairline is like a reverse mortgage and then I like I don't even look like I belong.
You don't even know where I'm like man I hate this. So yeah, but so yeah, I think that explains my same thing here like right I'm not retail but then I'm not Wall Street and they're like oh [ __ ] you Josh. I'm like what the [ __ ] You know what I'm saying? Like retail investors hate me and then my other op is damn Bloomberg.
Literally like you know what I'm saying? Like it's like what the [ __ ] dude? So I don't know man. I don't know. And they cut me. A weird way of saying middle-aged. Okay. Guy with the baseball cap selfie. I'm younger than you. So that's exactly my point is that it's it doesn't it sounds middle-aged.
It looks middle-aged, but I'm not middle-aged. That's the problem. You see, they don't get it. Man, this is [ __ ] I guarded a guy wearing a baseball cap yesterday, bro. He had a jump shot, too. It was disgusting. Mhm. Exactly the problem. I can't escape it. I can't escape it. I bro, how come no one's talking in the video's 52- week high?
You guys don't remember AI, the best thing in the world, now breaking out. How come everyone's so quiet about it? Odd. Shell did deny the BP report. Yeah. Then Marque sues over barred from Brazil port auction and spy at the low. Spy is at the low. But my friends, FO is on the high. Indeed and amen. Uh, Coheris popping.
So, Chadonia, should we do it? All right, time to go. So, Chad, listen. I haven't asked you in a while, but we did get a lot of members already today, but would you like to buy a membership? Let's see if it still works. I don't know. So, here's the best part about it. You do not need a membership to join Filelo, but you will need to use your will and choose to be there.
So, you get what I'm saying? So, make up your mind. Make up your mind. All right. So, God Oh, Billy, see, you've already came in, bro. God bless you. So, thank you. But yeah, get a membership. You don't need it, though. But I will see you on Felo. Make a conscious decision. Otherwise, I'll see you at the end of the day and have a good rest of your middle of the week on a Wednesday.
And remember, you are blessed. You don't believe me, believe it. Then you'll believe me. That's it's a pyramid scheme, but it works. Okay? So, I love you all. God bless y'all. And let's get into a good FO, baby. I'll see you there. Peace. Oh, Zack, let's
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