저자: 미상 · 외국인
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FOMC(2025-12-10)를 앞두고 파월 임기말 상황에서 변동성과 선발매(front run) 가능성을 언급. 금·은 변동성 중시, 중국 바이두/알리바바 등 중국주 강세 관찰, 엔비디아 반도체 수출 관련 뉴스 주목. 옵션 거래 데이터상 1개월 초과 옵션 비중이 10%로 줄었다는 주장을 제시. 실제 종목 방향성 예측은 명확히 제시되지 않고 주로 관찰 포인트 위주.
다듬은 글
All right, ladies and gentlemen, I hope you're having a wonderful day. It is December 10th, 2025. We have the FOMC in the Fed. And it's actually kind of important. Not only are we going to get the dot plot, not only are we going to get a lot of updates on what is going to be happening with rate cuts in the plan forward, but it's going to be one of Powell's final events going on that.
But yeah, either way, uh, what's going to happen here today with Powell, there's going to be a couple of different things, but realistically, the dot plot and everything that we're pricing in for next year, there's going to be some importance there because now all of the other Fed members, we're going to talk about this, their value goes up.
And now with this being one of PAL's final events, there is the possibility that you are going to be getting a lame duck fed. I mean, people are debating that right now. There's only a few other meetings, but remember we talked about this last time and I think Powell got a little bit mad because he came in and surprised a lot of people.
But other than that, this time around the market is really ready for it. They are prepared and we're going to see where it all takes us. There was a couple of events here in the morning talks about Baba and the Nvidia chips in China. We even had Meta. They're about to get rid of their uh open-source AI stuff, which is kind of sad.
And then there was a few things with gold and silver and we're going to talk about volatility and there might be a potential for a front run here before everything begins. But Chattonia game time and here at the stock market live, before we do anything, before we chase a dollar, before we try to enrich ourselves, we must pay homage to a very special group of people.
one that has made a sacrifice that most of us never have and never will. And I am talking about the veterans of the United States of America. So on behalf of the cult, the people here, the people not here, I want to give a huge special shout out. All the active servicemen, past servicemen, anybody who has served our country and done it, man, with honor and true like giving back, bro, you have no idea.
We wouldn't be here without the freedom. Freedom is very important, not only for our country, not only for how we make money, but also freedom of thought, freedom in your mind, my brother. So, God bless every single one of you. And I do want to give you a thank you, but also too, I hope that you could get a longterm.
I hope you could save the 10%. I hope you could really go and apply all this, make your money off the buy, baby. One of the best lessons, but for real, you have learned a lot. You have the discipline. and you have gone through your training and it really does apply very well here to the financial market.
So, at the very least, I do want to give you a thank you and a big shout out. I hope it comes to real life and it shows up and manifests in so many ways. And that's up to you, my brother. And two, I hope all of y'all who haven't served, I really hope you can make some noise and show that love, man. We need to go get the homeless veterans.
We could fix that problem for the price of one submarine. But don't get me started here. Maybe Pal. Maybe somebody should ask Pal at the press conference today. No, it's on my job. But other than that, we love all of you and God bless your families as well. They made that sacrifice, too. And big shout out to everybody else out there giving back to their local communities.
All the 's making their community run, baby. God bless you and thank you. Bu. [snorts] OH, it's game time, baby. HORN. OH, good morning. God bless you. Happy Fed day. Are you kidding me? It's beginning to look a lot like Fed Moss. Oh, yeah. We have a good preview, too. So, don't worry. I have that for all of you.
We have a I give like 30 minutes. We might need 45 a little longer, but we're I got a couple of statements that to go over. We could go over a couple of projections for the SCP and then we're going to go over the real breakdown because again, Powell might really become the lame duck here, but that doesn't mean you're not going to get something.
And like I said, uh the market is a lot more prepared compared to what we went through last time. And I don't know if you noticed last time though too, the market was doing amazing up until Powell kind of came in and messed everything up. So we will see. But other than that, I'm going to be watching a couple of plays.
ABVX, Oracle, Melly, Pepsi, Gold, Silver, Panter, AHT, Fizer, Merc. There's a couple of biotech. Some of them had some headlines there. Again, a couple of upgrades, too. But watch the earnings after the bell. And then really gold and silver. We had those nice talks yesterday and even then gold is starting to pop up here as well in terms of some of the catalysts.
But I do think that silver one is the main focus. But right now it's really whether or not we get a front run into Powell aka bond volatility is high or other volatility is lower. We're going to pretty much see how that all plays out my friends. So get ready and good luck. Uh please follow the rules.
Don't post any plays. Uh just information. That's how we're going to do some good work here. And other than that, if you have any questions, you let me know and let's make the most of it. Let's make the most of it. There was again Baba, there was a lot of China news in terms of uh like their chips and what like they said there was an emergency meeting.
[bell] Round one, fight. Yeah, there is some Nvidia news right now. Intel AMD accused of failing to block chips in Russian missiles. Oh [ __ ] And then AXP, they're going to be at the Goldman conference. Uh remember we saw JP Morgan yesterday, but those are starting to react. But yeah, there was uh what's it called?
Uh there was uh the Baba they said China secret meeting or emergency meeting and that's kind of what had it go crazy here a little bit. Wow. Wow. Wow. Oh, the wire is not up. Well, forgive me, brother. Forgive me. There is your wire. Thank you for shopping at the stack market live. All right, Meta, too.
I can't believe Meta is going to get rid of [ __ ] open open source. That was the other piece of news today. Kind of sad cuz llama is dope. They're going to call it avocado and then they're going to charge for it. What a [ __ ] Did they hire the Chipotle guy or something, bro? Is it [ __ ] Of course.
Why does everybody charge for avocado? This is [ __ ] All right. Uh, let's build up AXP. But yeah, watch Baba. That was up by four or not. Those are either going to fade after the move or that might continue if we get a followup. I thought Meta would do a little bit better on that, but Meta does get a lot of activity from uh Llama.
Merry Christmas. Good morning, baby. Happy Fed day. Happy one of the final Feds, bro. So, some of y'all, man, we've got to watch every single Jerome Powell. I don't know if you realize how insane that is. So, yeah, man, he only has a couple more meetings and every single one after this, it gets a little weird.
Intel, dude, I don't know that Intel news. They're saying they're I guess Intel was up a little bit more. AMD not as much, but they were they literally I just read it. They said they're accusing Intel and AMD of selling it. And then uh Nvidia says they're unaware of Phantom Data Centers. So, I don't know if that's similar or not.
All right. Where are those other ones? And then Fizer had some update on a breast cancer drug. It was in combination with a Merc drug. It was actually pretty good. And then I think Kaza, people confuse that there. There's something mentioned there, but it's it's Merc, not Kaza. So watch out for that.
Path is on the low. Guac is always extra. Pepsi AHT small cap or hospitality. They got like strategic alternative [ __ ] Damn, that actually went up another 6%. And then Panter Nvidia or not Nvidia uh Navy contract for submarines. McDonald's. All right. Who else? Bank of America. Did that one come out yet?
So they're also going to be at the conference, too. Oh, and then where's our boy? Gold and silver. So, they're both down here a little bit, but again, silver was up not too long ago. I mean, again, the guys we called yesterday, some one guy said it was going to go down by the end of the day. Who was the other one?
Bank of America. And then AXP, put your mother hands up and follow me. Oh. turned 31 today. Oh, zero. It does go by fast, my brother. But are you kidding me? Zero. That's amaz. [crying] Your wisdom your wisdom surpasses you, my friend. You know that that discipline. Well, I I think a lot of Chads remember your call too, man.
Are you kidding me? 31. 31. You probably like in the 50s 60s in terms of wisdom, brother. So enjoy that man cuz you're still young. You still your body your body has not turned against you yet. You still have the f you got another 30 in the tank easily brother. Oh my goodness. Happy birthday dog. Yeah's birthday ON ON THE FED DAY.
OH. Oh man. My brother. He and P pal better put some respect on it. He better put some respect on the 10th. Yeah. The XP. I don't think it came out yet. Happy birthday. Yeah. Neither did uh Bank of America. All right. So, that could be your little opportunity. Silver [snorts] Saw 61 this morning. No way.
Welcome to Life After 30. I feel like that's a reality show, but I don't know, man. I do. Zero. I you I would have thought you were older with all that wisdom. You have no idea cuz have you seen that wave of like I've seen people turn 30 something and then they start dressing like a baby like know exact I'm not even kidding like that's a real thing.
Tesla going up iroot. Uh yeah that iroot man I haven't looked at those premiums yet since we made them free but we still got a couple. Where is it? That's that one god, one king, one way, one thing before you long term. Please just save FOMC. Fear of missing Chad. That that make I think that's what it is.
Sounds about right. All righty. I want that [ __ ] load. Leand no I'm going wait for a little bit and hit one of these. Just give it a sec. You already started off pretty bad. I mean down 048 on the NASDAQ spy and Dow just about a quarter. Amazon's on the high and then Russell down 2. There was just a bunch of these [ __ ] Nvidia headlines, but yeah, they are coming down here a little bit again.
Watch Baba BHP. That's related to the minerals one. And Greer did hint at another set of mineral deals coming up. Yeah, bro. It's cold outside, bro. Y'all need to wear [ __ ] even if you're inside. Okay. Circulation. That's why, bro. I've been I've been getting like cold without realizing it. But yeah, get circulation habibi.
It's good for you. You know, you get a circulation. It is very good. Very very good. How many days is that? That's more than a month. And then keep that in mind. We talked about some I'll go over it here a little bit today. It's kind of related to what I've been telling you guys with some of this like BS gambling [ __ ] because you have an opportunity if you didn't know that.
But there's certain options that are not very active. So, not only is it like an opportunity in some senses of finding a good play, but more so just keep in mind, you know, after this week, depending on what we get with Powell, you might just want to uh, you know, set and forget here into the end of the year.
I think you might get some better opportunities. So, yes. See, can we hit that? Oh, Havi, this is expensive. Habibi, these guys are make a scam, you know. They make a make a scamming. Okay. Palanter going up again. They had the Navy news in the morning. All right. And then I'm going for one of the financial plays.
I'm going to go for one of the financial plays and then we'll wait for another unless I could get one now. Where is it? What's good, baby? Merry Christmas. Merry Christmas. I want to set these and then we'll go over it. Okay. There's none that exist. Welcome, Tony. Are you guys ready, man? Believe me, you're going to start getting uh hyped up here in a second.
Oh, you just wait. You just wait, my friends. So yeah, the opportunity for the front end. I'm sorry. I'm still shopping. I am still shopping. Habibi. All right. All right. So, I'm making a commodity play and then I'm done. Not a recommendation. You will lose money. Get a longterm. I think all of you could hear me, so don't get mad.
And then we're going to talk about everything. China to accelerate approval of overseas drugs urgently needed. Remember they had the Fizer update yesterday or again Fizer said they're working on a Chinese obesity drugs and then Boeing and U test advanced airline communications for future. Did you see the Boeing laser?
You know, remember we to we showed it in the big beautiful bill how they literally had all that money for like direct energy weapons. There was a video that came out of uh of the Bobo and the Bobo had a they literally had a damn uh a damn laser weapon that would like fry [ __ ] It was actually insane.
All right, financials and commodities and call it a day. And other one, Bank of America, USB, and Stake Street. Those are the ones at the events and the peach. Oh, what a perfect timing. Yo, we were just talking about bowling, too. Oh, no. Peach nation. Happy Fed day. Happy Fed day. Are you ready? God bless you, brother.
Oh, Bradley. Bradley, bro, are you kidding me? So, do you realize what's going to happen now? I mean, Bradley, you still got like a couple more meetings to go, but Bradley Frile has outlasted Jerome Powell. I don't think people realize that at this point. You know that, man. Bradley, you've probably watched just as many Powell.
You may have watched some of the most amount of Powels here. Like I was I was just saying, we've watched Powell for at least eight years or at least five or six on stream. But I I literally can tell you I have watched every single Jerome Powell press conference from day one till till even right now, which is kind of nuts to think about.
And that's why some of you uh you got to watch it, you know, before Jerome Powell, before watching the Fed became a gambling addiction uh with prediction markets before they made it cool. Uh we were watching the Fed before when my mom thought Jerome Powell was a furniture salesman. So it's amazing, baby.
I can't believe it. I can't believe it. No such thing as a lame duck speech speech. Peach. Amen, dude. Amen. So you guys get that. We're going to talk about it a lot today. I would love to talk about it right now, too. But long story short, man, you know, Powell, uh, GPCR, the fact that he's, uh, this is like, you know, one of his last meetings here, and then, you know, think about the power, the influence, he might still stay on the Fed, believe it or not.
He just won't be the chairman. That's up to him. They usually resign, but if Powell wants to be an [ __ ] he could pretty much stay. But yeah, people are are pretty much saying that he uh the the efficacy the power is going to go down. What's this? MLM Bank of Canada. He say he stepped down. Oh, no, no, no, no, wait, what?
I think it was a rate cut unchanged. Ah, so yeah, Bank of Canada just came out. They expect week fourth quarter. Officials agreed to rate policy revisions explain labor market showing signs of improvement impact from government spending plans to slow filter through the economy. Mhm. I don't know why it said I swear one of those headlines said step down.
It might have mixed in with another one. Mhm. at least early 2019 and we'll we'll talk about it. So, I mean, this is what I went over yesterday. I might as well share it with all of you cuz uh I was telling you guys a lot lately about the data and I was sharing some of the data that I had and what I've noticed with it and you know, some of the gambling trends and how people are are treating things.
But, you know, we were live in like 2018 uh and then our stream got a little bit more popular in 2019 and then really crazy in 2020. But yeah, here's the data from uh the options exchanges. 2019 was the peak of people buying options with more than a month of time. So, right now 10% of options are traded with or only 10% of options have more than a month of time.
That's insanity. So again, it goes to this is you could literally visually see the change in uh the options and behavioral habits, but long story short, you have a tiny amount of people buying real options. These are real Vega options. These are the options that affect the VIX. So you ever wonder why the VIX resets so fast?
Cuz think about it. I mean, people are not purchasing one month. It's one thing to already gamble uh on options, right? But now, you know, again, most people, I mean, nine out of 10 people are getting uh short-term options or at least in terms of the volume. And then I guess that doesn't count the look back activity, but that's another topic.
So, bonds are going up again. You just had a rate action there in Canada. I think they kept rates the same. NXP, there is a silver, there is a gold. Uh, where is the dollar in the oil? And then ne Netflix it might go down because they're saying they might have to engage in this little bidding war. Okay.
Walmart, J&J. Well, yeah. I mean, we went over yesterday, too, cuz like you could even see the bursts with, [snorts] you know, people do buy it. It seems like when there's a good opportunity and like there's a great buying opportunity, the there's an uptick in those one-mon options, but then right when the market like kind of gets ahead of people, then they kind of lose hope again and then they start chasing with the with the one hit wonders.
Mhm. So yeah, maybe we might have destroyed it. I don't know. I didn't invent dailies, though. We had to my day, we had to wait you had to wait a week to get a daily. You had to wait till the weekly contract was on the day. Yeah. We we call we call it open Oceans 11 like George Clooney. Yeah. Yeah. You had to you had to work for your [ __ ] daily.
Now you got Now they [ __ ] they pump you up full of dailies. Oh, we had to work. We had to wait patience to get a [ __ ] to gamble. What do you got? You [ __ ] know about a daily option, huh? You don't know [ __ ] about a daily. Austral [ __ ] target. We have to wait till we hit the target. Oh, Baba too.
Bravo John Baba John. My Ali Baba Prince Ali. Ali Ali. Aliaba. Wow. China. Mhm. So yeah, China's going up again and Baba and K web and BU. I don't think the dailies ruined everything because again on like some of these news plays were like were really early. They're a great opportunity, but then again, I mean, that changes in a couple of seconds.
But yeah, at the same time, you know, the beauty of the market as [ __ ] move around and [ __ ] it it opens up pockets for you. So, with what I showed you, there's a different opportunity. And then, like I'm even telling you though, like I've been telling you how the long-term is becoming a dying breed and then it works so amazing.
Uh, get ready for the transfer. But at the same time, [ __ ] options are options are becoming a dying breed. Like options with more more than one month of time. So please don't get it twisted though cuz someone would be like, "Does that mean a leaf is a long term, Josh?" No, it is not. No, it is not.
I would keep them all separated. Thank you for shopping at the stock market live. All right, a couple value plays are going up here right now. High tickers kind of active. Still negative on the on the NASDAQ. SPY and or or Spy just went green and then Russell and then Dow uh Disney on the low kind of taking some candles again.
Target got that little bit of a boost. Tap tap tap. Bank America flipped AXP. Everybody in the AXP put your mother hands up and follow me. Uh nobody stand tough. Notice that the long term still stands up. These dailies got you gassed up. Now, who's afraid of the big bad fed? One, two, three into the four.
One cut, two cut, three cuts, four, four cuts, three cuts, two cuts, none. This guy ain't no mother in Fed chair. I know every single inflation scare. It is low. They areing dumb. They did say transitory when it was none. I'm sorry. I'm so sorry, Twilio. Yeah, staples are gone. Who else was it? China.
So, yeah, China, bro. China, it was up a little bit more, but it's all this little uh emergency meeting they were talking about cuz remember we had the H200 news and then it popped up Nvidia and then it came back down and then they were saying how uh China the Beijing even banned them but now they might consider it now that they have a shot.
I don't think O has news but that thing's been running up. I mean holidays again last week it was slow a little bit this week. Uh, Mastercard on the high actually and a couple of others and Whirlpool. Uh, damn the high taker just like gassed up right there. There's a bunch of different names. Whirlpool, UNH, CocaCola.
But yeah, a lot of those retail names were going up, but I don't think there is anything. There was this Cyber Monday [ __ ] from a couple days ago. Guggenheim initiates buy on N with 59 Target. That was this morning. So they did have a upgrade upgrade. Eli Lily is waking up too. Yeah, Netflix earnings is next week and you have uh you have CPI and non-farmms next week.
So December 14th and then December 16th. It's going to be the delayed data. I think it's data from November or Yeah, I think so. So we're getting there. But other than that, it is getting to uh we are getting that finally. you're going to get two more sets of data, which is the irony is that, you know, even coming into today's Fed meeting, we're going to talk about it.
Just remember, you know, we were under the shutdown. That's why that's where Powell got a lot of cover to to kind of increase that hawkishness. So, we'll see. Yeah, bro. Silver Ps are still high. They're not moving, though. They gassed more yesterday. Then Qualcomm on the way up again. Dow's the only one green and barely.
I know you see the long term cuz saving 10% is what we on driving. Oh, I'm sorry you guys. It's POW day. Usually I get excited a little later. So, let me let me make sure we pace ourselves. But yeah, I am I'm already excited, man. I have a great preview for all of you. I have a couple of samples to show you, couple of projections, but yeah, remember last time we didn't think it was going to be that important and really it was just Powell's attitude at the press conference, but yeah, man, coming into the end of Powell here, it brings up a lot of unique opportunities.
It's going to be very unique and different how we how we go about this and analyze it. And that's why too is there's a there's a couple of opportunities. I have it I have it broken down very simple too. Uh bullish surprise, bearish surprise and the stage is set. Now all that matters right now for the next couple of hours is the front run or not.
Whether or not you get like volatility picking up. I mean the VIX isn't barely in the green but do we watch the volatility pick up ahead or does it chill? But and why we're saying that because if you haven't noticed the last couple weeks especially even when we got your boy uh uh your boy what's his name?
Kevin Hasset being announced. You know, the bonds got really really volatile. I still stand in here screaming save the 10. Don't ever try to judge me, dude. You don't know what the I've held through, but I know something about you. Nail and homebuilders. They started off this week pretty weak. Aluminina Biotech are doing it again lowkey.
XBI married Chrism SWK now. Gap a couple. You're going in burst again. High ticker is not even fully gassing. You're just getting you're getting some names that are they're making several highs all at the same time or it's going in burst. These aren't like gradual. You're getting like random poppers here and then.
Mhm. The call. Oh, dude. You're a blessing, bro. You have no idea. I really appreciated that. You know that. It was very I, you know, no one's ever really prayed for me on the phone. So, that was very nice. At least I you know, I've called a lot of people. But it's not only just the prayer. You sounded like a wise man, brother.
you sounded like you actually got to learn from here and that it showed and you you were approaching business and everything you're doing, bro. And it was great information, too. I'm sure you're going to hear me talk about it again today. Well, yeah, bro. I God bless you, man. You have no idea that it was very inspiring.
I That's why I said I told the guys even last night, I said, "Man, y'all want to get me a Christmas gift? Just pray for me." You know that the righteous man's prayer. Oh, a fool is despised. You know, a fool is like dripping. It's annoying. But oh man, you get uh IHG Intercontinental. I don't know if that's really the AHT, but yeah, bro.
It uh that was the one this morning that had the strategic thing. I still up 20ome and target still ripping, but yeah, like I said, bro, just a a prayer from a righteous man and to to hear the wisdom and to hear what you know, the real impact and not some foo [ __ ] man. I Oh, I loved it, man. So, thank you.
And then if y'all want to get me a Christmas gift, you know, I got you a nice XBI this year amongst some other ones. But yeah, that's uh you you give me a good prayer, a solid prayer. But that means I want you to pursue pursue righteousness, pursue wisdom, and then pray. Take care of yourself and then take care of me, brother.
You take care of you for you and take care of you for me, and I'll do the same. That's word of Jim Ron. Adobe going up. They have earnings, too. Speaking of which, Broadcom and a rackle. I liked it. Let's get through the morning and we could call a couple more people if you guys want. You know, that's kind of the beauty here, you know, with how we've done the Chad.
I think most of you, if you've survived, uh the Yash awakening of 2025, uh you know, the Chad's pretty clean. I would love to talk to some of y'all on the phone. you know, you have any questions, it'll be your chance. And then, yeah, but I I want wisdom. I want wisdom. It's I should smell it on you.
I should see it from afar. They don't feel me. All right. Intel still staying down. If Intel never cut the divvy, I mean, I just wish Intel never lied. Did you guys hear about that? They were uh they were literally saying that Pat the Rat pretty much fabricated a bunch of [ __ ] when it remember when it popped up and it went from like again 18 to like 50 or whatever like in 2022 2023 and all the guidance and it woke up and that's what led to them having to change their strategy cut the dividend.
Uh they were literally saying how uh they were saying like people were pretty much accusing Pat the Rat of lying and they say it was all fabricated and it led to that cuz there there was a nice little lawsuit on there. So like honestly I mean you would have had your dividend if it wasn't for that 2022 to 2024.
If you didn't have any of that I think you would have been uh golden. But I I think we got it at a good price. I think we got it at a good time as well. it was able to work and even if you missed the repickup of it, you know, all the other old Intel was able to get put to work as well. I just I actually look forward to the future.
Uh, you know, that's the crazy part. Like last time when we looked back on it, like Intel was fire, but dude, it's only been like 3 months, 4 months now tops since we bought it. So, that was crazy that we haven't even got, again, I don't know if you heard, they stole some dude from TSM, too. So, we haven't even entered the part where some of that long-term stuff really starts to hit.
So, I do look forward to that. That one could be good. Tell me why. Uh, BDX. Yeah. Do you see what I'm saying though with these like pops? Warby again. So like you're not getting like a weird like you're getting a different meltup, but it's like going in bursts. These names aren't just like ticking up one at a time.
They're literally going in bursts and they're making like five 10 highs all at once and then it'll chill and then keep going. So yeah, bro. It's kind of crazy. Oh Kanan, God bless you, baby. Thank you, man. And for real, bro. Everybody, every like I said, I want I want love for to watch everybody live wise and and I say that because we have a lot of opportunity next year.
Pal ain't going to be here, but you will be. So, I really want y'all to to live in it, man. And and let it show. Damn, Warbey's killing it. Again, remember they had the Google news the other day, so they're still running off of that. But yeah, man. I want it to show and I I don't know, man. Nothing is better.
Oh, the prayer from a wise man. I love righteous man. And it's it's worth more than you think. So don't I'm telling you that's the best that's the best gift you could give back to the Chad. Be yourself being wise and then spreading that wisdom and praying. Oh, so thank you, man, for all of y'all. Merry Christmas.
It has It's been a good Christmas. It hasn't even started yet. I feel like I'm early on the Christmas hype. Rocket Lab, ENVB. Jeez, bro. Uh, yeah, ENVB. It's already up 100. I think we went over that one in the morning. And then Elevance Healthcare is starting to go up, too. Is that Advanced Auto Parts?
They're flushing. I don't know. You guys know there's still drama with the first brand step ship. So ENVB, this one was already gapped up here in the morning. And then uh AAP is here on the low. I don't know what's up with that. I'm I first thing I think about is uh Advanced Auto Parts. You put up the Christmas tree November 1st.
Oh, damn. But yeah, I've had mine up. I had it right after Thanksgiving. Yeah. Amen, bro. I like it. I like it. Trump approved SNAP exclusions for six more states. BAE Systems awarded 7 billion Navy contract. I never want to hear you say I saw my turn today. A lot a AAP is a JCAP short report. There you go.
Another earthquake in Japan. Jeez. Habibi Baba. We'll talk about Baba too again. Yesterday they had that update with everybody kind of getting disappointed with how China closed the year because remember China was really strong. Their recovery they they've been doing bad for several years with their little deflation.
But yeah, again, another burst of value names. Even some growth names, too. But Hershey's, that was a great one, too. Is it back at that price? No, it was like 140 or something. Yeah. 140 at the beginning of the year. That was a That was one, too. If that one ever moves. Yeah. So, First Brands, bro, it's ridiculous.
So, like it was already going bankrupt and then these people stepped in to help and add like kind of distressed funding and it was supposed to be like backed by half of it was like the guys who weren't getting paid. They rolled over that debt to this new credit facility and then it was set of new people and it was supposed to be backed by like revenues cuz they own a lot of brands.
They own like the windshield wiper brands. They own a couple of brake brands. A lot of auto parts that are sold at like Walmart are are just first brands and they own a [ __ ] ton of them. But then uh yeah, literally those are getting clobbered now. So like even the people coming in like the distressed buyers who are there to like you know pretty much carve up the company, get what they can, get some of the easy money, they just got wrecked again.
It's it's actually very weird. You don't really watch that happen too much. So yeah, that still developing. The Saunders one still clapped. And then Renovo, they're in the process of uh pretty much going BK and they've stopped most of their services. BMNR on the high and then again Rocket Lab again.
Hershey's kind of went straight up. Still small though, all within 1%. Again, keep in mind potential front run. Spy is actually at break even right now. And then the NASDAQ's down a quarter. Russell is up by 0.1 and then the Dow.17. Is it seven? Let's get you a checkup. 03 Harris is to produce additional solid rocket motors.
We saw we just saw BAE too. Seems like a couple contracts are coming in or like these defense ones. So, Dow Jones, you got 19 in the green, 11 in the red. Not bad. NASDAQ is 5050. And then SPY 322 in the green, 180 180ish in the red. Yeah, that 6.5 earthquake hits Hokkaido, Japan. Pepsi was a sweet one.
I would argue that Hershey's is sweeter. Yeah, I feel they were all good. I love it. Good value. Good value. Good quality. David, do you know what that means? That's a code. Yeah, Google's waking up here, too. Let's see. Amazon. Amazon was up all day. Really? 14. Niveda. Let's see. Meta. I can't believe it, dude.
Meta cuz remember Meta killed it with their little llama in the open the open sourcing of it. But I can't believe they said they're going to get rid of that Celsius. That's 20 high. So that's fresh even though it's up 1% already. MBX fly pelican fly and then Eco8's up by.3. So SPY is barely above break even.
Uh Eco8's killing it. Eco is doing better than the Dow. So again, SPY has more names now. Dow has more names and then the NASDAQ is just chilling. Can you believe it? Yeah, GEV they had I think earnings and guidance but yeah [ __ ] massive considering how big the stock is. Yeah, I was up like 8 to 10 and then it went up and they have a hipbuck that means I love you in Arabic.
Warbe is still going. So they're on fire. There's even an update from Esor Luxodica the Ray-B bands maker as well. RTO resume trading where's the other ones XP1 Bank of America chilling papel pipel yeah yeah papapp whatever this is pineapple financial stx now that's 30 high so some of these bro that's like the second name I pulled up it's like 20 or less highs and it's already up still like 1.5 or something like that and then a Robin Hood and and planter hood and then the spy.
Seems like everything's going up. Microsoft I don't Oh, I think there was something. What was it with my Microsoft's now too? I think it was saying it's following their 23 billion AI investment plan yesterday. So it could have been the spending capper. That's the biotech. Biotechs are doing good, but it's again everything in burst today doesn't seem like that crazy when you look at them or most of them had a just a bigger gap up that they're holding.
But SPY is near the high end again. Bonds are going up too. So in an odd way that bond volatility is climbing. I don't think spy volatility market volatility is going up. Sipping on some fizzer. Who else was up still? Yeah, UPS killing it. UPS about to go back to 100. Target was on fire earlier. Where's PG?
Back from the 130s. Fly. That one's starting to go up too. Up five again. High ticker is just it's making you'll see the same name a few times here. That's what's sticking out. Whatever Argon is and then ASTS. Who was it? Oh, gold. Gold and silver. So much more quiet. Yesterday it stayed quiet till what, like the first hour.
We have been here for about 40 minutes. So, good morning. Again, it's about 50/50 on the NASDAQ. The Dow and the SPY are a little bit tilting in favor of advancing. Ecoway is doing a lot better. So, on an ecoy basis, you just got more names climbing. There's a large short floating around on bonds. There is.
I mean, we'll talk about it here today because it kind of makes sense with the Fed and what to look ahead for, but uh just I the bond market is operating very weird. uh you know, not only have we gone through the 40-year bull market ending and a lot of things and it in insinuates it, but I think that the there's a lot of boomers in the bonds and I think the boomers have been they're kind of cuckoo.
I mean, long story short, I you guys don't want me to get started on this conversation. That's why let's wait a little bit, but I don't think the bonds are highlighting the deflationary risks, hence why the curve is steepening. Uh but it's it's fascinating. It's something uh I never thought I'd really see.
But yeah, once we get around the Fed preview and all of that, we'll we'll we'll begin to talk about it. But yeah, the bonds are there's a there's something going on or it's operating very different than the past. And just look at too, ever since we found out about Kevin Hasset and he kind of became the front runner, the bonds went up a quarter on the on the long end, which is kind of nuts.
Is oil hitting a low? No way. That's close, dude. Yeah, you're within what? A dollar or two. A VB and then J&J on the high. There's Taperoon. Intel Rune Cole starting to run up. So again, high ticker. This time, ironically, this is a little bit more active. Every other time it wasn't really going past like 50 like 50% of the the RPM bar like it's starting to go.
Praise the Lord, baby. Finger to the sky. Amen, baby. Amen. And then top. And now Adobe as well. That's another pre- earnings run up. Adobe's been nice last couple days. Oracle, Broadcom, they're chilling. They're still in the red. And then Meta is starting to tick up if that could go. But again, the whole getting rid of the uh open model kind of sucks.
KKR, I saw that one earlier. Then by not at a high, I think I misread that. Nothing like a badge change. Welcome to the dojo. Did you ever play Pokemon? You remember when you would get the little dojo badges? Those are big days, bro. I use a lot of AA batteries to get to that. And then Abbott now and then NBO.
So, more biotechs or more medical companies and then the mobile eye. Oh, no. Uber's down three again. I don't know if they gave Oh, they said uh they said it's going to take like 5 to 10 years for robo taxis to make up like 10% of the volume or something. I don't know if that's the reason they're down.
Lift's down four and a half too. And then whatever CDT is. I don't know if this is one of those Bitcoin ones, but yeah, NASDAQ's the only one in the red now. Again, SPY is barely green, but Eco8, I want to argue that's still climbing. Yeah, a little bit. Eco8's up by.35. SPY is barely moving. Dow is the leader.
Russell doing good. Still a little bit more of a mixed bag. And then NASDAQ down by a quarter. And you have been here for 45 minutes. [snorts] It's the most wonderful time of the year long term. I don't know if it was for the industry. I think Uber was just saying that for themselves, but I wouldn't be surprised if everybody uh kind of priced that in in general.
And then Uber driver carjacked in Harrison. That's just a random headline. Yeah, let me see. So, yeah, here it is. Uber, this is from uh last late last night. It was an interview with the Nikay, the CEO, DHA. They said they expect between 5 and 10 years before self-driving vehicles is greater than 10% of global volume on Uber's on of 10% of global volume on trips on Uber's network.
The length of time to cut costs for the vehicles and to comply with regulations will be contributing factors. Greer, wider trade deficit tied to frontr running tariffs. Hubert H. Dude, get stay warm, bro. Someone told me that and then they were like, "That's why you're waking up like tighter than not.
That's why you're going to get more sore." So, like I wore cuz I don't like wearing clothes when I sleep. Like I wear a minimal clothing and I like kind of being cold when I wake up and then I like I like bundled up and then I woke up like really warm. Dude, felt [snorts] so good. Oh man, it did. I didn't get as sore.
So yeah, man. The weather's cold outside. Stay warm, bro. Good circulation. It's good blood circulation. They're having a council event. That paple that got halted. BV GPCR. That one's still up. Did I even move? Coat on the hat. Canino. All right, man. I think at this point you're going to get these smaller meltups.
Oh, JP Morgan. I don't know if that's going to do the recovery. Like we said, State Street, AXP, Bank of America, and then uh Bank of America. There's one more. I think UBS or USB. Uh they're going to have be at those events, so you might get a random mover on there. Otherwise, baby meltups here. I don't know.
Even then, you're going to have to kind of, it's not like they're doing them fast. A lot of these plays kind of remind me of path last week where they're going to kind of keep climbing up going a little slow, but none of these are like, you know, face rippers. They're not really jacking up the premiums too much.
So, again, I still think it's some uh somewhat positioning ahead of pow pow posture. Very good, Habibi. very good circulation, posturation, inflation. Uh, Figma, that's a little bit more active. I think that Goldman put out a note. They were saying how Figma could be one of the companies that reached 10 billion in revenue.
So, I don't know. I mean again Adobe Adobe's, you know, Adobe is one of the few like hyperscalers or in maybe that's not the word, but they're like one of the big mega cap, you know, they've scaled their revenue very very good. Uh and it's large. It's not too uh not too easy to do. Adab 10% from the bottom.
You pulled something. You stay warm, brother. stay warm. I know that's not going to help fully, but you know, more circulation is going to help you. And uh bar hangs, too. That's what I've been doing. That helps a lot. You hang from a bar and then just like twist around, too. Get some good grip grip strength.
All right, spies going up. We've been here just under an hour. And then I need to go potty. So follow me on Instagram at the trading fraternity. Real cult news on Twitter usar squeeze. That's what uh what's it called? Says zero hedge. We'll watch all of the mineral plays again. I don't know if it'll happen today, but Greer was hinting at a at another set of these deals.
So get ready for it. Get ready. But I'm going to be right back. Follow me on the Instagram, Twitter, whatever. Follow the lawn term. Get a lawn term. It's yours, not mine. Looked at the earnings out of the private credit space. Amen. And saw record low notes from the large managers, bank earnings where you saw charge offs at 60 basis points, flat to down year-over-year, credit card uh delinquencies, you know, moderating.
I I I think everybody understood that this was a isolated incident. Um, but look, it's the credit business. So, it's a good reminder to people that underwriting matters, manager selection matters, and there's going to be losses. That that's part of part of the business. And speaking of that, uh, the Bank of England is launching stress tests for both private equity and private credit, of which you will be a participant.
Aries will be a participant. How do you see that playing out? And do you think regulators in the US ultimately engage and embark on their own stress test for private markets? I don't know if it's going to be a formal stress test in the US, but we spend a lot of time talking to regulators and legislators about the role that private markets play in the broader ecosystem.
If I go back in time to the GFC and I think about all the conversations that we were having with the Fed and the SEC and Congress, there was just not as deep of an understanding of the symbiosis between private markets and public markets. I think we've all made a lot of progress just through constant dialogue and education over the last 17 years where there's a real understanding and transparency.
I think this BOVE uh process is going to be fantastic for the industry. I think what it's going to show private markets are a critical component of the modern capital markets. They are driving growth in the middle market economy. They are smoothing volatility in the liquid markets and it's doing something structurally to better distribute the risk out of levered financial structures into unlevered institutional funds.
So we're actually participating with great enthusiasm because we think increased transparency and understanding is good for everybody. Um, I want to ask you about data centers because you and I sat down in September and at that time you said one of the biggest challenges as it pertains to data centers and the AI infrastructure buildout is that there's actually not enough dollars to fund the pipeline of deals that need need to be done.
Um, how would you characterize the supply and demand dynamic as it stands now? Uh, especially as bubble fears have become an even bigger part of the conversation. Yeah, back to your private credit question, there's a similar type of anxiety about the data center build and and capex and I I again I don't really see it.
So if you zoom out and you look at the demand for data and the demand for data centers, it makes perfect sense just given the digitization of everything and we are years away from the demand overwhelming supply. When we think about this business, you can just look at the large hyperscalers alone and you have $300 billion dollars of capex demand this year to help support the growth in digital infrastructure and and and data consumption.
Um, that's a lot of capital in a market that's also seen growth in the, you know, the real world economy. And so my comment that I made to you the last time we were together stands, which is we're not in a bubble. we're actually in a in an under capitalized market that is scrambling to keep up with the demand.
It's been a while since I've asked you about private equity. Uh but it is a formidable part of your business as well. Um it just is it's been more of a dormant part of the the broader private market ecosystem these days. But it seems to be that the engines are turning back on. We've heard [clears throat] a lot of comments about the private equity deal machine uh you know kind of reigniting in in recent months.
What are you seeing in terms of your own portfolio for the potential uh for realizations for exits and then future deal activity? Deal activity is absolutely up. On our last earnings call, we talked about our pipeline in October being at near record levels across the firm. That's an indication of our own PE business, but also all of the financing business that we do for other institutional equity managers.
Deployment in November, strong early part of December. So it it it feels much better than it did. I think you're seeing a reawakening in PE rates coming down will help going into 2026. A a pro uh DMB still going backdrop is also what do you mean Gby was one of the managers back up. It's interesting because while PE was black Friday the rate environment and the valuation environment it led to a fair amount of innovation in the private market places like secondary credit man you're still kind of doing this I think in some respects while it was amount of play in terms of laggers and leaders private markets on the other side of that
yeah 323 much healthier place we now have a lot of a couple names actually you had about 10 names go green on the NASDAQ that were redity Dow Jones now we got a couple more 21 in the green yeah you're slowly advancing us today slowly same 330 on the spy that was leading the way and then you're going in burst
for bringing us the the conversation all the hot topics turn that off yeah wait what's the Goulsby thing Mhm. no bubble. Well, man, I don't know. Maybe it's kind of early, but I'm really down to talk about it cuz we had a nice discussion uh about what to look for next year. And it sucks because after this, today's a big day when we get Powell and then you're going to get the non-farmms and CPI next week, but then yeah, it's just like you guys realize the year is over.
So, it's like you're going to have to have a little bit of patience uh as we get into next year, but the real focus is next year. And there's a lot of different things that could happen. And it's funny because how many of you uh how many of you think there's going to be a recession next year? Do any of you believe in a recession next year?
I think that's how we could start this conversation. A recession for 2026. I guess it depends on uh what you believe, how you've been politicized, or then again maybe your economic knowledge. But how do you feel about a recession in 2026? Mhm. You believe it? Yes. Do we consider black swans? I don't think there will be.
Midterm there will definitely be shenanigans. No. How do you define it? Oh, that's true. Huh? Right. I forgot. Change the definition. Come on. You don't think Trump will allow a recession? H. No. The golden pad, baby. Oo. Probability. You think more towards the end of the year. Uh, Striker and EW. E.
Yeah, Edwards. Little pop there. Well, here's the deal. Where is it? So if you ask the fund managers and you survey this is uh from the Fed I believe but ironically enough people do not believe or at least these financial people the odds of a recession or like growth going below zero if you want to use that definition is about 1%.
got very low, very very low. So that's where in a weird way if you think there's going to be a recession that you're a contrarian. So why is this weird? Because at the same time where like you could ask the same people, they also believe unemployment is going to be up. So this is the weird part about next year.
This is and I don't know if you guys are picking up on this. Like you'll see it more and more. That's why I'm I'm glad to tell you and talk about it now. But go look around. You're going to start noticing people are they're bringing up this idea that unemployment's going to be like high, but they still believe in like a an economy that does good.
So this time around, like most of the times you said employment's going to be unemployment is going to be near 5%. You would think the economy would be slowing down, growth would be low. But the irony is that they believe that unemployment will be high but then growth isn't going to be necessarily low or let alone to be have a recession.
So the idea of a recession next year is actually very low. Now I don't necessarily believe that or really as Wall Street and again this year last year has shown you mother effers will flip on a dime. They have zero shame in terms of uh you know forecasting all of this stuff. But the way I'm looking at next year, it's either boom or bust.
Once again, we came into this year and we were looking at this year in terms of uh 20% just because of uh the two 20% plus years. Remember I was telling you guys that that's only happened like four or five times in history where you have had backto back 20% plus years on the index. So usually the next year after is also massive up or down.
This time we actually went up. I think we even had down there for a little bit too. But the whole idea is that we've now done about three. I'm pretty sure we're like right under the cusp, but we're about to have three years in a row of I don't know if anybody would like to look this up and maybe ask chat GPT.
I forgot. We We could just [ __ ] AI everything nowadays. How do you trust these little [ __ ] freaking AI? What's his name? Al. Who's Al? No, AI. A Al. [snorts] Okay, I guess Al. Let me see. But yeah, I don't I don't know how many times we've had three 20 plus years. Let's see how many times in history has the stock market went up 20% three three years in a row.
I don't know if it's ever happened. I'm sure it has. It had to has happened once. everything happens once. But either way, next year is going to have a lot. But now this is the part and it relates to today that we're going to that's why today is going to be partially important. I mean, nothing's going to immediately happen.
You will get your rate cut, but what we've really got to look for is just quite simply, I think next year is going to be either boom or bust because there's either deflation that nobody wants to talk about. uh and deflation I think is a very real risk especially when we look at China. That's why like you know Donald Trump even bringing it up a couple of times uh in the last couple of weeks I think is very fascinating.
Uh, I think very realistic. Uh, but at the same time, if it's not deflation, just remember the start of the calendar, next two weeks, [ __ ] the cars, you name it. All of these new programs, money, tax bills, write offs, all of it. That all comes into play. There's going to be a crap ton of money everywhere.
So, that's kind of where we're at right now, I think. And now mix that in with again two, three backtobacks. Uh, let's see. Yeah, based on historical data of the S&P, the stock market has gone up 20% or more three consecutive years only one time in history. This occurred during the dot boom in the late '90s.
Depending on whether you look at total return or price return, the length of the unique streak varies slightly. The only instance was 1995 to 1999. The single instance of three consecutive years of gains happened between 1995 and 1999. So 1995 you went up 37%. 1996 you went up 23%. Uh oil numbers are coming out.
Crude minus 1.8 million estimate was minus 1.3. So 1996 was 23% 1997 was 33%. 1998 was 28% and then 1999 was 21. So you actually when you did three you went four. If measuring price return only, uh, the market rose 20% or more four consecutive years, 1995 to 1999. Notable near misses. There were other two periods in history where the market came very close to achieving this three-year streak.
World War II, 1942, you went up 20.3, 1943, you went up 25.9, and then 1944, you went up 19.8, 8 missed by just2 and then 1945 he went 36%. Current streak 2023 we are currently on a streak of 2 years. 2023 was 26 24 was 25 and then 2025 to establish it the market must finish up 2025 by 20% or more. Holy [ __ ] Mhm.
So yeah, it doesn't. So yeah, I guess n just tech bubble or world war ii, but really tech bubble was the only one. 1995 to 1999. So it went up four years. But anyways, back to what I was saying. The uh the whole key with all of this is that all this money is going to be [ __ ] dumped on the system. Once again, that's partly why I didn't like the uh big beautiful bill when it came out.
But now there is real deflation. And I don't think anybody is talking about this is what I was saying where the bond market's kind of weird right now. And I think it's the boomers, the vigilantes, and again, Powell, you name it. And then also too, like you know, uh, let me see. I I'll ask Gemini again.
What percentage of US treasuries does Warren Buffett and or his companies hold? So yeah, think about it. One person, I'm pretty sure Buffett is between 5 to 10% of all US treasuries. So one person again that's not counting the pimpos the bill grosses you name it but the whole point is I don't think the bond market is reflecting the deflation and think about it if the Fed holds for too long they hold too high for too long I mean we just saw little baby liquidity issues uh and then again tariffs I just I I believe what I was telling you you know like think about it this year when I'm telling you guys about tariffs and we didn't really freak out the same way a lot of people did.
It wasn't just cuz we're like yeah Donald Trump [ __ ] yeah Donald thank you Donald. It was like think about it. We kept tell kept telling you it was deflationary. That's what history has shown. So all these tariffs it brings in a lot of money slows things down and like we're not in the point where we're this isn't 2020 uh where you're where you're having you know supply shortages that are driving certain things.
you have a bunch of goods or a bunch of dollars chasing a bunch of goods. Uh it's it's actually the opposite of that now. It's like there's a fees on that things are amply supplied and that's where it's like at that it's very deflationary in the sense of the longer we hold these tariffs and then if demand if we pour all this money on the system and it doesn't lead to growth and it gets you you know this high high unemployment but then it doesn't lead to growth and then the Fed has just kept high rates for a very long time, you know, they usually go until they break something and like think about it, the deflation that that is on the table and then the tariffs.
I mean tariffs are again, especially at this rate, they've historically been deflationary. [snorts] So yeah, that's that's why I think next year is going to be fascinating. Uh does that make sense? That's kind of the the way to paint the picture. It just again multi multiple years in a row of craziness.
It puts you in a category of your own historically. There is deflation, real deflationary factors that the bonds, the bonds aren't going to show that because again, think about it. This is what we talked about yesterday. The bonds are showing you inflation. The bonds are worried. That's why the short ends, that's why we're getting a curve steepener.
They keep cutting rates. The short end's going down. What's up with Nvidia? Ah, yeah, Nvidia coin. I don't know if crypto is on the low. It is starting to drop but then gold and silver kind of holding here. Well, SPY back to the earlier low. SPY actually went red again. Dow is the only one in the green.
Russell gave up uh the baby gain as well. Equal wave still up by point 2 though. So again, you still have more names. But yeah, those chips are starting to give up a little bit. Ba and then J&J. But yeah, like I'm saying here, you're you're kind of in your own little category all these years in a row and then you mix these in and then oh, I was saying the curve steepener because think about it, they're cutting rates, the short end is going down, but every time they cut rates, the long end is staying up or going up.
Again, even Kevin Hasset coming in, long end is going up by a quarter point. Think about it. The bond market, they're doing that because of uncertainty. Uh but not only that, it's uncertainty in terms of inflation. They think a Fed who's going to keep cutting. They think all of these problems and again playing into that whole affordability crisis.
Uh essentially it's going to uh you know they're worried about inflation. That's what the bond market's saying. That's why they're giving me higher rates. I said this last night cuz it's like bro if you thought there was going to be deflation and and again there was really if there really was going to be you would buy all of these bonds.
But then at the same time, they just [ __ ] they sold massive amounts of bonds in supply. And then that brings up a whole another conversation. But the whole point is that the bond market right now, it is not reacting to anything deflationary. It's only reacting to inflationary. So in a weird way, I I you know, I would look at the bond market.
I wouldn't rely on it. But yeah, I think when we finally get cuz you don't have deflation too often, but once we actually kind of start to get to that point next year where we're going to find out which way it's going to go, I think the bond market might change heavily. Uh but for now, I I just don't think it's correct.
And then for next year, it's either all that money we throw at the system, if it doesn't work, we turn into what happened to China, and then if it does work, I mean, I'm sure there's going to be a lot of uh good things. This is not a one-way road. talked about this last night. Uh, it could go both ways.
It's either golden era or a a road paved with [ __ ] I don't know if that's is that too much of a Anyways, yes, the five figure is correct. It requires important qualifications. Warren Buffett owns roughly five to 6% of all US Treasury bills, not the entire US debt. Uh, BB. So, total T bill market is 6.15 trillion.
Bergkshire owns 360 to 38 billion. So yeah, 5.8%. If you look at the total national debt, which includes long-term 10 and 30year, they own about 1%. So yeah, that's kind of crazy. Well, the Fed could pivot to QE, but if we entered deflation, like a real deflation, it wouldn't really matter because it would it would be too late.
And that's that's kind of what I'm saying here now is like the Fed, you know, people were trying to argue that at the last Fed meeting and when Powell came in and you know, how the market reacted, they were saying it's kind of a response to a policy error. But yeah, I mean, they've kept it high for a really long time.
But then it's not only just the Fed. It's again policies like tariffs. It's stuff now being supplied amply. If we don't have the same productivity and growth, doesn't even you could stimulate all you want, but if it if we start getting that ball rolling down the deflation hill, it doesn't ask China.
It's you're going to need to throw away more than the kitchen sink. And then at that those that's why I always said deflation's scary because at those moments even if you threw the kitchen sink perception gets washed and people it may not still have that effect. They're they're not going to feel the same way and then they might start hoarding and then before you know it we all become Japanese.
Mhm. Again, if everything works out very well though, I mean it's going to be uh it's going to be awesome as well. You'll get a lot of upside. So, I had this conversation last night. I think it was a very good one. But now, here's the problem. We start talking inflation, deflation, start to talk up deflation, especially because it can be scary.
Marvel's going up and then J&J too. J&J, BMY, Marvel, and a few others while GE on the low, Nvidia. So, we just had that little pullback again. Kind of feels like a normal Fed move. I just if the range could widen up that'd be a little bit more exciting. Oh, and then that N's still going. Would deflation show up?
China was a closed market. uh it would it just essentially it wouldn't last as long. That was a question we had a similar question uh on it yesterday. It was more so if we get deflation will you uh it how long would it last? And that's why I'm thinking usually with history it's like 12 to 18 months but then you go look at how China played out.
China's borderline almost been three years in deflation. So I think the timing would be different but will if it if the right situation appears again we do something like tariffs which you could argue kind of closes your market especially if you do it in mass but uh I do think it wouldn't it just wouldn't last as long that would be kind of the answer to your question we're chilling there but yeah the thing I was saying is that people hear this type of stuff And I again I think we're going to find that's why next year is going to be excited.
We're going to see exactly which way. You have to be ready for all of it. And this is why I was telling you guys from like 2022 to 2023 we that's where I started implementing a lot of kind of new rules for the long term or really kind of hammering home the strategy. It's all about balance. It doesn't matter if we get hyperinflation.
It doesn't matter if we get stagflation. It doesn't matter if we get deflation. your long-term strategy will win. And what that's if you play it how we've been doing with the balance. Remember I've been saying you got to diversify your stocks, diversify your asset classes. Do not buy things when they're on the high cuz again you don't know what stage cuz think about it that's after 22 23 we started to pick up on this and the inflation and then it looked like the 70s and then it would play this game back and forth and that's really going to be the answer.
Not too much, not too little, a really nice full balance. And that's why it just sucks because people, you'll hear these conversations and you'll be like, "So everything or you'll hear like it's only going to go up inflation." But remember, if you buy too high in inflation, you might just overpay and still not be able to perform again.
Vice versa, uh even on the downside, if you buy too high, you're gonna you're going to hate it there uh if things start to deflate. But, you know, if you're buying them when they're low, you have a balance. If you have, you know, some industries are going to do good. We just got to wait it out. Uh, and making sure we're very productive while we wait.
Take advantage of the cheap names. Get your diversification. Throw in some dividends there because if it takes a couple of years, you'll increase your total return as well. Uh, Nvidia's coming down. It's crazy. The high ticker is still going. Warby, bro, that been on five 12% now. But yeah, other than that, you got a couple of values running up.
I see a lot of food and some medical. Yeah, Fizer and MNA. Remember yesterday they got some of that bad news. Fizer had the good cancer uh breast cancer drug today. Yeah, that started to move up. But yeah, like straight up your uh your strategy you have here is going to you're you're going to love it either way.
You just have to honestly it's just going to be hard to be patient, stick with it, and not get, you know, caught up in the in the extremes as they start to happen. So, it's going to be fun, but I do think diversification is the true answer no matter what happens. Because again, that same thing, think about real estate.
You want stocks, you want real estate, you want different industries, you want them at good values, the dividends, the growth, not too much cash, not too little. Because again, if things hyperinflate, if all that money gets thrown on and the bond market gets what they think, it's going to be massive inflation.
Some of you, you know, if you've already held and did well through the long term, you're come, you're going to come into this next cycle with the most money you've ever had, that's going to be great. If it hyperinflates, it'll be negative in some other instances, but as far as your assets, you're already an asset owner.
That's going to benefit you. Uh vice versa, if you come into deflation, you're going to have the money, it'll go down, but now, if you're already buying value in some names that were already deflated, it's not going to hit you the same. You're going to have cash to take advantage of the deflation. Not too much.
That's why I saying your 10 20% will turn into 30 40 50% in terms of real value. And then you're going to be able to to go through and play that game. If it only lasts for a couple of of years there or less, then you're also acquiring the dividend as that all has to play around and and go back up. But balance the balance in diversification.
Either way, we're already prepared for it. And I'm talking in the long term. There will be opportunities to speculate in between and trading. But yeah, this is I'm talking midterm longterm here and then especially long-term strategy. But dude, next year is going to be uh it's going to be one for the books.
So I hope too after this week, I hope you get some good rest and you're ready to go. Anything with the M2 rate of change? Not I'm not really I mean I brought that up the other day cuz the M2 is starting to to finally like break out a little bit, but it's kind of just leading to this conversation where I'm saying where you're either going to get inflation and the market and everybody's fears are right about inflation now depending on if we get inflation with growth or if we just get inflation without growth.
Uh but that's kind of where that points to or the reverse where I'm saying if none of this stuff works. If you know we actually get a slowdown, one thing leads to another, the Fed kept it up too much, tightens too hard, the terrorists start to to clap on things and then other who knows what other stuff we can't predict.
And then the money supply is already that high and money is circulating like that. It's not going to be good. That's going to be again deflationary. That's where you lose the the efficacy. Again, China is the uh is the modern uh example for right now with that. So, it's going to be a good one. That's why get ready, be wise, and yeah, next year, man.
And and it's a midterm year, but we are thinking a lot on that. A lot a lot. Yeah. Greer, is that old? No, he says it right now. He'll have discussion with Indonesian counterpart on trade deals. MLM says federal budget is not adding a lot of additional inflationary pressures. My email is trading [email protected].
But I do are you going to send me your long-term? Why? That's the thing. what we're talking about now. Uh you're going to have to uh this is going to be a 5year 10year plan cuz that's what I'm saying. It's like some some of you guys got to watch it in real time. Uh depending on how long you've been here, but you know, it was after some of the peak inflation and all that volatility we had under Biden.
You kind we kind of started picking up on this and that's why, you know, we already already had the idea of the 70s, but diversification really was the answer. home prices. I mean, again, if there's inflationary, especially like big inflationary stuff, they're obviously going to go up, but also too, if it's deflationary, they will come down and but then it's going to track uh like essentially.
So, that's the thing. It's like if we had a deflationary type of crisis, the thing that really matters is that you're going to still be doing certain behaviors still. So housing, housing is still going to be everybody's biggest living cost essentially. Doesn't matter if you're inflation or deflation.
Doesn't matter if there's stagflation. Housing is more for more people than not. Nine out of 10 people, you're going to have housing be your major cost unless you're a senior citizen and your house is either paid off or you're living off of somebody else or whatever it may be. But housing cost is still going to be your biggest consumption.
And then everybody still needs food, right? So, everyone's always going to spend a portion of their income on food and then housing is going to usually be the biggest. So, prices will still come down in deflation, but you're going to have to balance it out with uh just essentially it'll track living cost.
So, it'll still be the highest cost for people. It'll just be lower. And but prices and if you own a house and you're able to hold through it again, you diversify well, you don't get overlevered. It'll be rough, but you'll still be uh better than not, and it'll still track and hold your value of value.
Again, uh China is a great example. You know, the people who overlevered, that's and again, this should sound familiar. We talked the same thing in 2022, 2023. We were talking about it how just remember I was saying if you're overlevered, that's where I started delevering a lot of things. Uh overlever is what's going to kill people in either environment, right?
you overlever on the top of inflation, you don't get the right prices there. Even if it's inflationary, then the assets, you know, you get you top tick them. That's going to hurt. Again, deflation, if there's a big pullback, if prices do start to change, then yeah, your deflation with leverage is going to [ __ ] kill you.
So that's why ideally that's why you don't want to be on margin. You want to have just balance, diversification, not overlevered. Uh, if you could survive through that, that's why I'm saying the next 5 years now, especially if you've already been building up here and you got a good foundation, it's going to be awesome.
It could be we follow China, but we're different. I mean, China just freaks me out in the sense of uh we've everything I'm talking about with deflation up until China just went through it. We never really saw anybody in the modern times really have deflation that wasn't like a you know like a third world country or something or something where a less developed economy.
Are you allowed to say third world anymore? Isn't that offensive? You can say whatever you want. The farm is good. We're working on uh we might be getting a what's it called? Uh I think Ryan found a skid steer for 400 bucks. We're going to rent it. We're doing some work and then uh we're looking into planting some things.
So, it might be plants ahead of animals because I still haven't hired somebody to to live on the property and be an animal caraker. I robot. Where is that one? Those are back to 700. [snorts] I found a mispric. I don't I'm already in the money, so I don't know if I'm going to roll to it, but I'll give it to you guys.
Let me see if it'll actually fill it on that. Am I playing options for the Fed meeting? I mean, if I was, I wouldn't tell you. So, uh, you're in the long-term chat, brother. The long-term chat. Trump Homeland Security Inc's contract for own fleet of Boeings for deportations. Well, well, well. I don't know.
Maybe, maybe we'll do a a survey. Could you guys maybe I could uh I could go through and call you guys like the Michigan consumer sentiment and we could give you a phone survey. Do you guys Do you want to bring the gambling back next year? So, we we we'll have two weeks to decide. I'll think about it over the break.
Do you guys want to bring the gambling back? Do you want options? Do you want plays? Do you want everybody chased? Do you want influence? You want to unban all the pumpers? And do you want is that what you want? Or do you got Cuz again, I mean, I think a lot of people did a lot better this year. Uh, but then again, you did have a you did have different constraints and a different standard.
Baba is starting to flush now. So, I don't know. Maybe is sprinkling. I mean, do you want the locked in or not? Cuz again, the locked in, you guys you guys do get an advantage uh if you're on the trading side. And then, but at the same time, you're not taking advantage of of people who don't know what's going on, which that's what people would do.
Uh so, yeah, but it's there for those who who are in there. You tell me. Uh, but I like I'm again I think a lot better results. I think you no matter what, you're always going to get like the weird like the weird emotions. Like I'm saying, bro, no matter what, it was definitely a lot less people that blew their [ __ ] up, but I like I'm saying, I'm I am still somewhat shocked by like the amount of people that like they just I it's temptation.
I get it. just like straight up randomly like, "Fuck this. I'm selling the long term. We got to go go game on it, bro." Mhm. Yeah, it is. I mean, it's definitely very emotional and I don't I think some people are always going to fall for it uh and fall for the temptation, but I do think that a lot of people uh you know, a lot when it's tighter, you kind of got forced to to really choose sides.
And that's what I'm saying too. The first I saw a lot of people lie about it too. You had to align where your where your interest was at and align with what you were really trying to get out of it. Not this. Yeah. Long-term long-term and then just like secretly gambling all your money. That's what I learned a lot of that with uh some of the changes.
So yeah, but then again, I do I'm thinking of the next generation brothers. I really want to see uh the future future ones, man. That was uh that was golden. That was golden, bro. But then too, you guys have a way cleaner chat. I mean, I banned a [ __ ] ton of people. So, again, we held a very strict standard.
If you didn't meet it, it's don't take it personally. Uh again, I think boredom is the uh doorway to mastery. So, that was uh that was very, very good. Mhm. Three streams. What's FFA? Just unfiltered, never muted, free-for-all. Oh, I said what? Mhm. I think it is. I think it's uh I mean, it's a lot more focused.
Way easier. you guys aren't competing to uh that's what I'm saying. It changes the competition dynamic changes the flow. I've noticed too even how the uh you know everything is like the uh like how the news even gets circulated that that was fascinating that there was actually an impact but it is a lot less competition in terms of a a real good discussion.
Mhm. the watch list. But again, like I said it the other day, I mean, most of the stuff like everything that was on the watch list, I just talked about it. So, and like that's what was happening. You know, some people would just wait till the morning. So, I think the lock and then again for the locked in the watch list is mainly for the day-to-day trading.
What the [ __ ] happened here? Again, a couple of things are going down. Nvidia, Baba, Surl, the the metals, metals, couple biotechs, quantum, and China all coming down. Swiss government reduction of additional tariffs apply retroactively for November, seeking further exemptions uh on tariffs on pharma, chemical, and coffee remain in place.
something. Yeah, Swiss 15% will apply to imports from Switzerland, replacing previously additional rate of 39%. I don't know if that's old or not. But I won't lie, dog. I only need a few. Well, that's what I'm saying. And I think some of y'all really did rise to the occasion. And that's why too I mean it though.
Like look at the the opportunity this year. We were correct on it. Uh you know what I'm saying? There was a lot of things going on. We knew this was going to be a 20% year uh or 15 and it it surely did provide. But that's why I'm saying just please don't give it up. And I I don't know. I hope a certain level of strictness uh will get you to uh to make sure you you put the same emphasis on your future cuz that's what it's about.
Cuz again, what's good what's the good of it? What's the good of working 5 years, 6 years, and then giving it up in a month, man? Giving it up in a day and falling for it. So that's why I think some of y'all really did rise to the occasion. And I think you understand what I mean by securing the future uh and securing and doing good with with what you got.
Ally. All right. Yeah, man. Couple of these names still dumping additional US. Uh, it's the same one. Yeah. Some update on Swiss tariffs. All right. Uh, what time is it? 8:00. We're getting closer. That's it. I'm only going to get more excited as we as we arrive. SQ on the high. I guess SPY is about to go low.
So, this is what I was saying though here too with the volatility. So, again, bond volatility. It's been one way today, but still a big move. But one or the other is going to catch up. Uh oil dumping too. So again, oil is just right around the uh is right around the lows or it's about they might hit a low until the end of the year.
And they said Apple Tim Cook at the White House or seen there. Well, we could see. I just again I just I mean it the the emotions of it that's all. I think the the culture of the gambling and the plays, I just don't think everyone's cut out for it, man. It wrecks people, dude. That's what I'm saying.
It's uh there's a lot of emotions behind it. But all I'm saying is that we have couple more weeks and then we're going to enter a new year. As we enter a new year, we either do things the exactly the same or we change it. That's all. So, we'll have we'll have two weeks for some ideas and deciding. But that's exactly what I did this year.
I did tell you guys. I didn't I warn you. You don't remember me telling you. And I was saying how your boy your boy Yosh is coming back. Then I gave you guys an advanced notice on Yosh returning. And then we said some things are going to change. So now I think it worked out very well. I think it was very very effective.
That's the word. Very effective. We had good again I think some of the best trading, some of the best law-m I think it it really did highlight, you know, pockets of both opportunity and and where people could work on things. So yeah, two more weeks. Uh it's either we continue along the path or we make some adjustments.
Is Netflix a good long term? I it is, but depending on where you got it. So I don't think I'd buy it at the high. It's kind of crazy. I forgot they split cuz technically we bought Netflix at $100 or like 120 but we bought it before the split. So like theoretic what's our price on it? Isn't it our price is like is it 10 bucks 20 bucks?
Yeah we bought in around like $20 essentially posts split. Google introducing comments on eligible YouTube short ads. Gen. Dude, that's what he said. I didn't know what it is. I didn't really look into it, but yeah, that's what he announced yesterday. How do you use it? Are you allowed to talk about it?
I don't want be I just If you talk about it, don't go on a boat afterwards because I know P Oh, okay. My bad. AXP. If that starts getting crazy, that's from the uh Goldman thing. Marquetta high ticker. Look at the high ticker though. Short-term is actually kind of running. You did get that bounce back to VWAP.
Jagex. Isn't that Runescape? Or am I tripping? Oh, Jaguar health. Different Jagex. And then Disney on the high. They dumped earlier. Yo, Gemini. I still love Gemini, bro. That's cool. Even asking him some of the stock stats. You used to have to use uh the stock trading almanac, but I don't know. Gemini seems pretty on it.
Now, let me see. I want to see the sources on that. How come we don't give? Oh, it uses the AI. So, yeah, it does. And then Slick Charts again. Wait, Gemini goes to Slick Charts. That's funny with all the ads. Come on, Gemini. No, I haven't used Opus. I'm just the sad part of today. I can't believe Zuckerberg is going to eliminate the open the open source the llama.
That's crazy. I think the llama is very very powerful. And it's sad, but then again, I don't know what that implies or where we're at with the next stage. I guess they're just going to monet if they monetize Llama, that's insanity. But yeah, Gemini has been the the nice the nice middle ground. There's been a lot of good things with Gemini.
You built a brand new PC to play like right now or is this back in the day? They should come out with the remake. I don't know. How could Would that be a good console game or No, I don't think it'd work. But good times. Good time. Wait, did it sell that [ __ ] Oh, I didn't Bro, they sold that [ __ ] Hold on.
I was looking at that mispriced one. I haven't put it out yet. I was going to roll it. I was hesitating on the rollover, but then it [ __ ] sold it for me. All right. You built it for now. Oh, dog. What? So, Runescape's still popping. So yeah, I'll give you one. Not a recommendation. You will lose money.
God bless America. All right. And I'm going to go get me a carbo. And then little by little, brother, we are inching towards the Fed. We'll have a preview in like two hours. So about 45 minutes ahead of the the meeting. Remember, you are going to get a uh you are going to be getting a SCP today. So, right at two, we're going to get action.
Keep that in mind. Pop pet stores is it or just macro stuff, household formation, think things like that. Well, there's going to be a couple of things. Um they're focusing on verticals besides merchandise. Okay. Which is uh you know, they're doing a lot of uh vet care. They're expanding into that. They are currently have uh 14 um buildings on on that.
They're expanding into 18 by the end of the year. So, um you know, you have healthcare, you have sponsor ads in the in the website, you have um you know, the membership program, you have uh Chewy Plus. So, all of those things were probably going to be tailwinds for the for the company going forward.
They're focusing on like gaining um mid to high single digit uh sales growth over the next few years which is I think it's it's it's a normal forecast but right now they're um you know growing two times the size of the industry. So yeah it's interesting. Is this a trend that you're seeing moving forward for a lot of these kind of consumer-based companies um shifting back a little bit to that instore sort of experience because that seems to be a strategy that's worked for other retailers uh outside of the space as well.
Yes. So, you know, the pet industry it's it's very sticky in terms of demand. Uh so one uh once these companies get the the pet parent at the start of the you know pet ownership they're going to have them for the rest of the life of the pet. So you know that is obviously a a a very uh interesting dynamic compared to other retailers.
But in terms of you the the instore experience this is something that Petco is also doing. They're leveraging their 1400 stores to also increase that traffic and penetration. So definitely uh interesting times. So Walmart, Amazon, how how does Chewy compete against those players that have big big e-commerce platforms?
So based off of them, uh they compete on price. Um we a couple of years ago, we did a pricing study with Amazon, but Walmart and and Chewy and other retailers, and Chewy and Amazon were pretty close in terms of pricing. um where uh where Chewy beats um Walmart and Amazon is that their customer service.
They, you know, if you call them and you have any questions about the food that you're going to feed your dog, they are very knowledgeable compared to, you know, Amazon customer service. So, that is like the edge that they have. Oh, very interesting. Now, another bright spot, of course, is auto ship, right?
which is basically if you're a pet owner, this is the thing that you sign up for like my cat's food each month and then it just keeps charging me every month and then I get a surprise delivery of cat food that I was not maybe expecting but um so obviously that's a bright spot for Chewy. Um what's the outlook uh for that um part of the business?
Is that something that could be sustainable? Yes, absolutely. So right now 84% of their revenue comes from autoshipip which allows them to have a lot of scale um and allows them to be very profitable. So that is obviously they have been growing. Since I started covering this company it was like in the 70s and now it's 84.
So it's probably going to get to the 90s soon. It's very convenient because you sign up for it and then you forget about it. Yeah. Right. And then it just shows up and it's probably like a book of the month club. Yes. Book of the month club. It's cat food in the mail. So there you go. Cat food of the month.
Who doesn't need that? Uh, Diana Rosena, thank you so much. We appreciate that. Diana covers the consumer staple stocks out there, including Chewy.com. Chewy. She does that for Bloom. You know, my girl used to like Chewy until she started feeding her [ __ ] dog. Like these, bro. Her dog, she feeds it like [ __ ] real food.
I think it's just food for dogs. She'd be feeding it [ __ ] venison and like this. I'm like, why does this dog eat like this, bro? Yeah. Back in my day, you gave him kibble. Some good good good old kibble. Oh, he [ __ ] dog. He has a [ __ ] fridge of food. I'm like, this is insane. Mhm. Terrible. And then, yeah, liquidity.
Well, don't be deceived by liquidity. I honestly I think a lot of people I've come to realize that like liquidity isn't talked about enough. Uh like a lot of times we think liquidity is just about like money moving around and it makes sense because like money moving around is part of it but just don't forget liquidity is going from one asset to another and then switching back and then how much you are losing on it that spread.
And that's where I've seen a lot of things and we talked about it yesterday cuz it sucks cuz like right now with what's going on with like silver and gold I do there is such a big disconnect between real life and then paper and that's why it's like if gold and silver like you know if you bought gold and silver physically back in the day I mean you're killing it but in an odd way I think like if we're going to watch like a crazy squeeze in silver or gold I don't think it's going to uh like I think it's really going to boil down to uh to like paper gains and I think you're going to have a better opportunity on paper for a little while unless gold and silver holds this as the new floor.
Somebody brought it up. I don't know if that'll be the case but you know if silver really does then yeah uh we're going to we're going to see what happens. Mhm. Ah, so that's the but just yeah keep in mind liquidity and that's why too when some of these things like bro things getting hyped on the internet and like again people are like that we showed it yesterday people are talking about like mining in silver but then it's like it doesn't even matter the silver mining when it's just like yeah paper prices are moving but if you don't get that same real life effect dude it's It's very and there's a difference between industrial silver and then like investment silver and bullion.
So yeah, man, it's crazy. But yeah, understand liquidity. Same thing real estate. Real estate is very illquid. Uh even though there's a lot of money in real estate, you know, and think about it, one purchase in real estate affects the comps, but real estate is still illquid. All right, spies going up.
Kibble is cancer for dogs. I know she's my girl. I think my girl said that too. Rebecca might get you tough. You get built. You build built tough like a Ford. Swiss. We will talk to us about medicinal products, robotics, and other items to prevent tariffs. Oh, who's the Was it Lace or is that just drones?
Wasn't lace one of those Swiss Swiss ones or am I tripping? You want to go back to the gambling, keep the current filtration. You're not being punished. Well, that's the thing. I mean, we talked about it yesterday. I don't think discipline is being punished. So, I hope none of you feel that way, but I can't control how you feel.
But at the end of the day, uh you know, let's we just have to tighten it up, man. Cuz there was some good things. Uh and there's, you know, the the plays and stuff could be good, but without discipline, it'll hurt you. But how is Do you have a good long-term? Send me your long-term and let's see, cuz you're one of few who has said it.
So, I let's let's compare it. Email me your long-term and put Omar and we'll take a look. I don't I won't share it. I just want to look and see. Cuz that's the thing, too, like priority. I just think a lot of people have I think I've seen I don't I could probably put put a number on it but I've seen a lot of people pretty much the idea is that it's kind of like stripping uh becoming a stripper but they're like I'm going to not do the longterm now and I'll do the longterm let me go and make a lot of money trading and then I'm going to go and gamble and do some quick stuff now and then I'll make a long term and then what happens is that it sets them back and then maybe it sets them forward for a little bit.
They'll get what they wanted, but then they won't put it towards the long term and then eventually before you know it, just like I showed you with that options chart, you could even see it in the global market in volume when there's a good opportunity to buy and hold with time, they go crazy. But then once that opportunity kind of dissipates, you'll just start noticing short-term options start going crazy.
People fall behind and they got to catch up. Fall behind then got to catch up. And then they start using this. And then it's a it's a never- ending cycle until now. Literally 10% of options are traded with more than one month of time. We didn't talk about oil. I mean, you did have oil numbers came in.
I think there was a slightly more of a draw. And just in general, I mean this is it kind of relates to the silver and stuff like that where you know certain metal commodities are up and show inflation but otherwise you know the number one commodity in the world this whole year it's shown the exact opposite of that.
But as far as this year, just the drill baby drill, getting rid of the regulations, and then we are getting closer to the uh end of the Russia stuff. But I don't think there's anything beyond just uh the factors we've seen this year. And then today it moved a little bit off of the uh uh what's it called?
Off of those uh oil numbers, but we are I don't know. It might even flush into the low. CRM still running. That one just I pulled that one up. And then healthcare and biotech on the high. Do it. I see your yours is kind of hard to read, but it seems like your lawn term is just like a couple of tech stocks.
Oh no. And then Regetti. Oh no. And then GameStop. and then BYD. So yeah, it doesn't seem like you followed all of what we're saying here too. So that's what I'm saying. Like I think you want to kind of pick and choose unfortunately, but you could send me a cleaner one. That was from July. But yeah, it's again that's kind of been the some of the problem there.
You're you're more you are more prone to [ __ ] [ __ ] up if that's the case. But you have good tech stocks at a good time and you're holding. But yeah, that's where it's saying like what's that's the confusion and I don't want to cause confusion where I think some people before you know it plays long-term plays long-term people start thinking that these short-term plays they start thinking it's long-term quality and it's not.
So, but other than that, I mean, it was pretty good though. And besides that there, but there is some uh you do got a couple of red flags in there, what would make the price of gold and silver go down? uh really supply going up I'd like to say or demand changing from where it's at now. But like the only there's only one real risk of gold and silver.
Does anybody know what that is? It's not really supply and demand, but that's what will play out. But there's one big risk of gold and especially silver. We kind of talked about it yesterday. Our boy got to bring it up. Well, I couldn't tell. I He sent me like three or four accounts. One of them had like good Nvidia, good Amazon, but it seemed like it was only chip stocks.
And then there's one with a little bit more, but then that one also had stuff that I just I wouldn't know how that got in there. And that's what I'm saying, too. So, you might as well uh you got to kind of just align with it. And if you really want the trading and you think that's like a big driver, I mean, you do have a avenue.
You're just not willing to take it. Uh called the locked in. See, because that that way everybody in the locked in, I'm I'm assuming they know exactly what it is. And we've had a couple people, I've reminded them, if you're not on the path to a home, you don't know what you're getting into. Don't [ __ ] with it.
But yeah, but that's why for like speaking for talking to the broad masses, I don't want areas for people to get confused, not manipulation, not a squeeze. So again, cuz he's saying, "I'm young. I don't want to top tick." Right now, you're gonna have half of the people talking about silver is not going to do [ __ ] or it's going to come down or the other half is saying this is the new floor, right?
And everyone's like this is going to that's it. You're still early. It's going to 100. Gold is going to 10,000. It's getting revalued. All of that. But what's the risk again with how it's played out? You remember remember the other time he's like, "Josh, you told me not to buy gold. I made 50,000. Josh, my mom's a hater.
My dad's a hater. You're a hater. Josh, we did it. I went all in on gold. [ __ ] you, Josh. You ain't want me to succeed, Josh. You remember that one was that?" So, what would be the And what? Remember we we had a chart the other Do you remember that? Right. Josh, dude, Josh, I told you, Josh. You know, Josh, I've never spoken to you ever, and you told me this, so I made, sir, Josh, I've never spoken to you in my life, Josh.
But you not speaking to me had a profound effect to justify an extreme risk on something. And now that I've had some short-term success, [ __ ] you, dog. What? How did How did What? We really out here. All right, man. So, you remember this chart? This was the chart. But more so, here's the problem. So, this is where I'm at right now.
Cuz like I keep telling you everybody, the the real issue is that gold and silver is supposed to be stable. Maybe silver not so much, but gold is not supposed to be crazy. No, they did that with Dogecoin too. Not that that happened with gold and Doge a lot of everything. Every asset, every asset that's been extremely risky or again in this case, gold is I mean a lot safer than a Dogecoin.
But no, that dynamic plays out at least once a year. Somebody or somebody will come back after 3 years. You told me not to do it. And I also told you to buy real estate at the very bottom. How come we don't? Why are we ignoring that one and Abby and IRM and Uber and JP Morgan and Meta and Netflix. But no, no.
Anyways, so this is my worry for all of you guys. Uh that's why I'm saying do whatever you want. Be wise with it. Remember, you could balance anything out. I mean, if you're going to diversify, you could always just don't go all in on anything and diversify appropriately. But the risk with gold and silver, especially silver, you just don't want this.
And what I'm talking about is 10 [ __ ] years of not moving. That's it. That's the scariest part about it. Cuz like if you get it and it and this is the floor, God bless. That'll be great for you. You know, I don't know. Maybe you could argue $20. I would say $20 might have been the new floor. Maybe $30 is the new floor.
But that's like the scary part is that and you just got to plan accordingly. You scale in, you be wise, you diversify. If you really insist on buying it, uh that's that's how you're going to have to balance it. But yeah, that's the risk of it. It's it's not really about I'm not even worried about top ticking.
I'm worried about top ticking it and then it goes back into another 10 20 year cycle of not really doing anything because again 2008 you didn't break out till 2008 prices till recently. You guys realize that it's like what 15 years. So you were still down 50% by like 10 years almost. [clears throat] So that's the that's the worry.
Gold is a safe haven. I mean, gold is always going to be a safe haven, but like I'm saying, it's starting to change a little bit because it just uh it's not stable. Like you used to buy just like I would tell you guys with real estate. You guys remember with real estate like a normal year in real estate would be like 3 to 5%.
That was good. You know, when I was getting excited about real estate, it was 3 to 5%. And that's why people thought it was weird, but it's big money, right? It's supposed to be stable. Real assets should offer stability. You get what I'm saying? You're buying a real physical asset. It's supposed to your money should remain.
You should always have value. You shouldn't be like confused on that. But that's kind of where it kind of it sucks because when it if you buy it high enough and then it ends if it goes non-stable and then back to stable that's where it usually backfires. See so again gold you know 1980s it hit just under a thousand and then what it didn't break out of a thousand for 30 years 27 years.
So yeah you cut out for a second. Uh, don't don't worry about it, man. It's all good. You might have to go back. For some reason, it always cuts out. Do you know? You guys notice that, right? It always It always cuts out on the good feed. I don't know why, bro. It always cuts out. Damn. It always That always happens.
It always do. Have you noticed that? I don't know, Chad. It's uh I don't know if it's me. I might be going insane, but I'm I'm suspicious. Mhm. Let's see. Uh, someone just sent me a longterm for an opinion. Your long-term isn't bad, but you got to start stacking up. That's I don't know. You probably bought those other plays a while ago, but you have a lot of names, which isn't bad.
I mean, you got places to like look and grow, but just start stacking up and then avoid some of the dog [ __ ] You know what I'm saying? Some of those plays that that you guys are picking up. Some of these feel like, this is what I'm saying. A lot of the trades I see in your long term are trades we talked about trading.
Not all of these are going to be long-term plays. You know what I'm saying? Like I don't for some of you I wouldn't put Fanny May in my long term just yet. I don't think I think that's too risky. Uh I think you're playing a different game with time and then again a lot of these are there top ticking him [ __ ] like that.
It's not necessarily uh and you know while you're small you could work around it. It doesn't really matter. But I No, you didn't top tick that one. You did good. But what I would do is stack up. So instead of having 40 names with a couple hundred dollars, I would start uh I would start to uh like really really like pick the couple of good ones and try to build more positions above $1,000 cuz you have a big account.
You got 30 grand, but you have how many [ __ ] stocks is this? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 and I don't know where you got some of these too. Yeah, a couple of top ticks in there, but yeah, you have 50 names.
So, I think if you like some of the names too, like you even the like top ticking ones you you would think you would have top tick, but you actually did very good on them. So, like in a better way, you you could have uh I think if you were like start stacking like you've seen me do. You see what I'm saying?
pick a couple of them, get your deposit, instead of, you know, instead of buying like five plays for $100, put one play with 500, but then that way you're going to have to decide a little bit more. But you got a little, bro, you almost built the S&P 100 in here. So, yeah, it's not too bad. I think that's otherwise good portfolio.
I just some of the names I wouldn't really I'd frown upon, but like I'm saying, I mean, they're all small. you've kept all of them small and then you let a couple of the other ones start to grow there. But that's what I would start doing. Let it grow. Let it grow. No, don't sell. No, no, no, no, no.
That's what I'm saying. I wouldn't necessarily approve of those names. And like I'm saying, some of them you did good, but yeah, you can't sell them. That's not what we believe in. That's what I'm saying. Cuz in a weird way, if you really get one of these good thing you went small, cuz then you get one of these [ __ ] up bubble names, you ride that [ __ ] out, you know?
It's going to it's going to grow for you. But yeah, don't what you do is plan ahead. Now you start thinking about now that you have these little bubble plays, you let these start to work for you if anything. But I would just start thinking about how to stack up now. That's why no more five plays for a 100red.
Start start picking a couple of the other ones. More heat. Yeah. Not bad at all, though. That's going to be the exciting part for some of you guys, cuz I was saying, you grew it big already, little by little, and now you get a couple of good stacks in there. It's gonna Now we got to get to the damn 50K, then get to the 100K and that's all you got to do.
Be fair, the house is already bought, so restacking. Oh, even better. I love it. That's what I was saying. Now we get the [ __ ] long-term that get it to 50K, get it to 100K, and I think it's going to You're You got a good plan already. I could see you stacking up stuff already. That's what I'm saying.
Those other ones, some of them worked for you if they were bubbly. Some were there, but just it's a lot just a lot of names. Uh, that's it. But, you know, you can you can over diversify like that, but then you've seen it. You have plays in there that have done very well. So, you want to make sure next time you're you're actually getting a good amount to work.
And then that's why too, if it ever turns a small amount into a large amount, even if it's dog [ __ ] remember 10 years minimum. you could rebalance in 10 years or if you really want to get rid of uh the bubble names you're only selling if you're going to buy another house or buying something else but that's not a stock it has to be another higher quality investment Okay.
Don't send me any more emails, you guys. I'm done. I'm done. I think. No, no, no. I'm turning off my email now. Now I'm getting all sorts of stuff. And then homeboy sending me that's not a lawn term. Don't send me no options options and [ __ ] stocks. I'm I'm banning you now actually. Were you the guy?
Are you on the locked in? [snorts] Were you the guy who just said, "Josh, I'm making a lawn term." Yeah, that is you, bro. [ __ ] out of here. That's terrible. So, yeah, bro. So, I don't know. AMX resolve path and then having options in the same one. I don't think that's a longterm and I wouldn't do that.
Uh and at the same time, if that's what you're going to do for the long term, I would cancel your locked in cuz I don't think it's going to what's the point? I think you you're you want to trade a little bit and you're going for more gambles. We need to get real good quality. Uh and that's just that's not going to be it.
Trump on Truth Social. Mexico must take care of its water and sewage immediately. It's a true threat to the people of Texas and California. The United States of America No, I'm not going to. See, that's it. Once you guys, Dude, I just got like 50 [ __ ] emails. So, I didn't even tell you I was looking at the emails, but then once you guys picked up on I was looking on the emails, y'all just [ __ ] spammed the [ __ ] out of me.
Oh, yeah. It just gets overwhelming. But ideally though, I think we already learned a couple. Don't over diversify. And then uh at the same time, that's something I've seen. I mean, I've seen people do it. That's where it's like it's kind of disingenuous. Uh you know, where that like just I know some people like, "Oh, long-term long-term." But then if your long-term is only like [ __ ] stocks, dude, that's where we saw people fail in 2021.
That's why and it was brutal because there was, you know, I had people watching for years. They were taking every trade, going for every option. They were not separating their accounts. And then they were buying all EV. Then they were buying every single hype play GameStop. And they were like, "Yeah, this is it." Bro, why are people still obsessed with GameStop?
That is, bro, I think that needs to be studied. You know that? And they get mad, too. and they're like, "No, financially the cash and the balance and the Michael Bur and then but like bro, it just that's not like like I'm saying S&P 500, you know." So that's why like if you're wondering why my reaction to that last one where I'm like, "Bro, you were just telling me I inspired you to get a long-term and then you send me a damn portfolio with options and then lowquality stocks." Not one of those is from the S&P 500.
You know what I'm saying? And I've been spending two months uh even Wall Street took the idea. If you haven't noticed, Wall Street's been pumping the S&P 493 now. And that has already gone up 30 40% in terms of like sentiment and movement. It's like and then you going to send me that. I just like I'm saying I you can't use my doctrine to say I inspired you when the results do not show any of that inspiration.
Right? If that was the case, you would have at minimum a fizzer, a tap, something like that. You could throw that on me and be like, "Look, he inspired me." But not if you send me four different lawn term names that you say is your lawn term and none of them are on the S&P 500, right? That means you found a way to go out that you had 500 options to choose from.
So, yeah, it's not not the business. I just spilled my red ball. Let it go. Let it go. The longterm needs to save and grow. Let it go. Your game stop. Mhm. There is a Netflix movie. No, dude. I don't know. Like, that's just It blows my mind on the GameStop [ __ ] bro. It really does. It really, really blows my mind.
Mhm. Like the amount of people that I've seen like on it, bro. It's kind of crazy. Like it's just something about it is uh Yeah, it's just weird, bro. It's really weird. They're like still obsessed with it. Bezos Blue Origin has a team working on orbital data centers. SpaceX has pitched a data center plan part of share sale.
You got pulled into the hype like right now. I don't care what you did five years ago. That's what I'm saying, bro. You guys realize that, right? I don't care. I'm not I don't care what you did four or five years ago. I mean like currently that's the part that blows my mind cuz I'm like how bro how how are we still like bro I still will see from time to time just like and then if you go and search it on Twitter bro you will see people talking about it to this very day and they're like look and then if you go and look at the picture and then Rory Kitty you know what he meant right you know what he meant and then look get the cash.
This is the value, dog. People don't. Then they start pulling out [ __ ] mathematic charts. They start getting valuations. They're like, "Look, this is the future, the ecosystem, the ecosystem." Then they start using all the buzzwords and then you're like, "What?" Uh, dog, this is So, yeah, just remember the there's 500 names on the S&P 500.
Half of 68% of them are in the red right now. It's a great way to start. It's a great way to start. But yeah, that's what I'm saying though. You got to uh for real, if you if you're really listening here, uh whether you're starting a new long term or you need to like clean it up and make a make a good long term right now, you really should be looking at the S&P 500.
And then two, that's the same time like some of these I'm just I got sent a [ __ ] ton of emails. I'm seeing a lot of people that uh you know also putting in and this is where I'm saying I it's your responsibility but this is where you guys got to see where I got kind of inspired. I see a lot of y'all taking I like I've traded some of these plays and I'm looking at them and I'm like yeah these are trades but I've see some people have long turned them and I understand the appeal.
I used to do that when I was younger and I would be like yeah yeah I like this. No, I'll hold it. I'll hold it. I'll hold it. Yeah, it's a swing trade long term. I'll hold it. But no, uh you have to really again that's why we need a separate account because the long-term needs to be 10 years minimum and whatever comes in is not coming out.
But like you don't want to you need to know about these companies. So like don't be putting in biotechs in here longterm if you don't know about it. You get what I'm saying? Like energy plays that you don't really know about. You're like yeah offshore drilling. like [ __ ] what the [ __ ] you when unless you are working in offshore drilling you know what I'm saying the spaxs you know certain things like that like I really wouldn't be uh I wouldn't be the biggest fan of that deposits versus moving profits inside the lawn term Jbear I answered this for you yesterday so we were in the middle of Felo you were like [ __ ] this Felo Josh should I break the rules and sell and I answered it after I don't know if you over here.
But yeah, if you're not getting around this one, brother, you're not allowed to sell. Okay? Even if you're up just unfortunately, if it's long-term and it's there for 10 years minimum, it's 10 years minimum cuz that's where it sucks. But that's going to maximize everything. You if you really want to like move things around, you buy a house.
if you want to rebalance or you're going to deposit money and then just stop adding to that and add to whatever you want. But, you know, think about it. If we I could have done that with a lot of plays in the long term and it would have [ __ ] up our results. Meta, Netflix, JP Morgan, Uber, Abby, IRM, you name it.
Some of these plays went several hundred% in just a couple of years. But if we were moving them around because they had profits and we're like, "Yeah, yeah, take profit. move it here. Let's use this. Let's spread out the money. Let's spread out the drip. No, that's not that's not the point of compounding, right?
And that's why too, it's it's a blessing because if you get a good play that hits and runs, that's going to allow you to really get a fat gain. That's why I even told other homie he had plays I don't really I don't think he I wouldn't have recommended people to get those and they were bubbly plays, but then they go up.
I'm still saying you can't sell that. 10 years minimum. either you get a house or you hold it cuz even if you got on the right wrong side of the bubble, you could let that work for you in the in the long run. That's the general idea. And then at least very least you'll have growth plays and then you could go and build dividends while while those do their thing.
But yeah, there's no way you're getting around this rule. This is I know it's tempting, but this again this is a lesson. You're either going to uh you're going to either like again look at our performance, look at what what we have done with a lot of these plays. we would have cut all those down if we did that.
So, you're either going to learn this one the hard way or you're gonna understand this was the commitment when you did it. Otherwise, don't put those in the long term. You know, if you're going to be tempted to move [ __ ] around, even if it goes up, I that's just not going to be the long term. So again, if you guys really that's the beauty too cuz like if you got if if you really want to sell something, you got to go find something to invest in outside of the market.
Again, that's part of that asset diversification we were talking about earlier. Ah, let it go. I don't know why Frozen stuck in my head. EU fine will likely come. Yeah, in first quarter 2026. Isn't that crazy? 3 weeks it'll be 2026, Chad. Sad. [clears throat] CX. What's this? It's down three, but ripping.
Bessant retweeted, largest banks should not use their government charters or market power to set public policy. That's the purview of elected officials. Today's findings confirm that banks restricted access to financial services based on lawful business activities. The president's executive order was clear.
This will not continue. Comp troller Jonathan Gold. Yeah, the Google [ __ ] is not hitting that. That's Reuters. Let it go. Hold it for 10 years. Yeah. I don't know. I don't think Be careful, brother. If that I saw the one you sent me, I don't like it at all. And I don't I don't think I think you if you want to gamble and trade options, man, just approach at your own risk.
But I would focus on the long-term first and you don't need a locked in for that one. But if even then for your you go S&P 500. Am I still going on vacation? Yeah, I'm leaving after the end of this week. So after December 14th, I will not be live till like January 7th, I think, cuz I'm going to take the first week off, too, cuz nobody does [ __ ] from the first.
I might even come back on the 10th. So yeah, we'll see. But that first week is [ __ ] too. That's why. So I I'll leave a little later, but I might go live randomly. We'll see what happens. Am I single? I don't know. Do you not check in except for once every 3 months and you believe everything on Twitter?
Are you cute or what? Wait, who's asking now? Now that I think about it, wait a minute. Mhm. I will get relaxing time, bro. Mhm. I get relaxing time every day, but then I get sore because of working out, bro. It's so terrible. It's so terrible. That's why. And then if I don't work out, I still get sore.
You know that? But yeah, man. In my mind, oh, I'm blessed. I'm blessed because it doesn't matter because even if I'm not blessed, I command my mind and I make it blessed. Does that make sense? That's what the fileo is about. Y'all don't feel me. I don't think they No. What stocks have I held the longest?
I think Abby. I think Abby, Spotify, uh Mo, those were some of our first plays. Snapchat, but Abby has been the probably the oldest biggest one. Long term. So, actually Spotify was our first purchase for the long term, then AT&T, then IRM, then Ultria, and then Snapchat. So, actually, you had you had four [ __ ] bangers.
Actually, three bangers ahead of that, and then Abby Vi, and then beyond only one share, and then more IRM, then Disney, then more Spotify, more Abby VI, more mo. I left around the 20th last year. So maybe we'll see. I got to see uh depending on what my girl's going to be doing. But cuz I know next week you have data.
So maybe I'll stay till next week. We'll see though. Unless I got a dip. What if you do weekly deposits? What do you mean? the first week. It's cra I I realized that when I came back last year. Last year, dude, the volume on coming back, everybody was still gone. It was still so slow. Even though it was like post election, everything, bro.
Oh my gosh. It was terrible. It was slow. It was just another It was just the holiday week still. [snorts] Mhm. And why do you guys there's no such thing as a long-term trading account. Why do you guys keep saying that you guys? It's a gambling account. Okay, I don't know who needs to hear this. There's no such thing as a long-term trading account.
Okay? You either have a long-term or you don't. It's very simple. Okay, y'all. I know. Listen, I know they got hella genders and [ __ ] nowadays. That's I get it. But there is only a long-term there is no long-term trading account. This is going to [ __ ] you up. You are confusing yourself. You are trying to justify it.
That's like I don't even man do you guys cheat on your significant others? Cuz I don't know you guys if the wording you like no no no no no it's not it's not a girlfriend it's a female friend it's a shortterm it's a shortterm marriage. Okay. Wait a wait a minute. You [ __ ] No. Okay. It's not. There's just no.
There's a trading account and then there's a long-term account. Okay, trading is tantamount to gambling. That's okay. Nothing wrong with that. That's you just got that should make you more defensive, worrisome in a good way. And then there's a long-term separate. It does its thing, but there's no long-term trading.
I don't know where did you guys get this idea. They literally they're like, "No, it's a short-term marriage. What? That doesn't make sense, man. It's a long-term plus. It's a day trading plus plus account. I hope I read it wrong, but then I look at it and then just please, man. Please. I don't know why I keep hearing this.
I've a lot this year actually. It's a trial marriage. No, that's not. Lord, just have your trading account. That's fine. Have your long-term separate. That's just it. That's that, man. That's that. I know, man. It just we live in a a world of branding, right? Again, prediction markets. It's gambling, dog.
Oh, I saw the crazy I give you. I think we got like two more years. I think two years tops maybe on the prediction markets cuz do you know what they're starting to say? This is the propaganda. Are you ready? It gets so funny. It gets good. Are you ready for this one? Are you ready for this one? I heard somebody say the riskfree prediction rate.
Do you understand? So they're like, "Yeah, if you put your money into bonds or a money market right now, the risk-free rate is about 4%." But if you go and take the risk-free predictions on any of your parked cash, you are getting 10%. Ah yeah. Do you get it? So that's they're going to be your that's and then if that takes off or if like people start doing it that'll be the trigger event when it like gets clapped eventually because then people like yeah all you got to do is just buy the 99% oh you get that back at 10% and then yeah it's no be careful cuz that's how it happened with staking.
Staking didn't get clapped until [ __ ] were like, "It's like a dividend." Until they're like, "Wait, why would it's risk-free?" And then they were like, "You could get 10 20%." I'm like, "Oh no. Oh no." Mhm. Yes, they said risk-free to a gamble. I didn't think that's what I'm saying. It's that's that's risk-free gamble.
It's a it's the wording. I love it. You could do weekly deposits into the lawn term. Yeah. But just remember, if it comes in, it's not coming out. Magg. Isn't that the gene editing one? I think we have this one. Longterm. Yeah, we hit maggot. Which one was that? Which one was the gene editing one? It is is when they start saying they're [ __ ] crazy as [ __ ] They're like risk-f free.
I know, bro. No. long-term stocks in longterm Finn and then Warby all day, bro. All day. 9:00. So, we got what? Two more hours till the Fed. Are you ready? Longterm long-term stocks are always here. Dude, that song's a banger. You know that? Shout out to Elsa. They don't know, man. I hope Elsa don't get Man, what did Elsa turn into Miley Cyrus?
We [ __ ] though. You know, that'd be terrible. Terrible. Risk-free gambling in Canada as real estate. Nah, bro. Ro, it only goes up there. But I remember there was a period like a couple was it beginning of this year, end of last year, there were some people selling houses cheaper in Canada. That was the first time I've ever seen it.
Uh MGI or MIGI. What the [ __ ] is this? It's literally branding, dude. We live in the branding era. But then they got people branding to themselves. That's it, man. I don't even know. They literally branded fat as beautiful. I'm just And we live in the branding generation, bro. I grew up in the generation where we used to like criticize ads and we be like, "That's fake.
That's unrealistic. That's it." They're like, "You know, you're getting sold." And then the next generation was like, "No, this is the Oh, it's Brandon Maradin." Mhm. Polyalty and Google. No, there will not be a felo today. No. Uh I could I I have a mini one for you actually. I could give you a mini felo uh right before our preview.
You know what's wrong with Miley? That's what got you in that whole conversation. So, out of everything I just said, from the fat people to branding to gambling to risk-free rate, Miley Cyrus is what stuck out to you? No, nothing's wrong with Miley, man. Nothing. You're fine. Just I didn't think that was going to be the Yeah, I didn't think that was going to be it.
Don't worry, we're making we're making progress as a generation. The problem is when we degress, you know, like I said, I think a lot of uh Did I get me? No. Hello. Hello. I'm seeing this. Did you guys know this? The state of California, if you don't log into your your crypto accounts, it's considered abandoned property and they will the state of California takes your assets.
I just got an email. I'm reading. I'm like, "What? I already cleaned that account out." That was Remember I logged into those accounts in 20 last time I logged in was 2022, the beginning of the year to remember when I was like, "Wait a minute. I have all these old crypto accounts with money in it." Mhm.
Yeah. Literally, our records indicate you have not logged in or contacted us since February 18th, 2022. Under the unclaimed property laws of your state or jurisdiction, your account is now presumed to be inactive or abandoned. Consequently, if you do not promptly take action to indicate that your account is active, they are obligated to report your account and transfer custody of your assets to the state.
Depending on where you live, you may be required to liquidate any digital assets in your account in US dollars before transferring them. To avoid turnover of your assets to the state, please log in within the next 30 days. Yes, that's crazy. Dude, what? Dude, that's kind of crazy. I do. What's crazy is people are like, "Yeah, I [ __ ] love Gavin.
[ __ ] yeah. Let's keep doing this, dog." What? What do you mean? I have nothing in it. It says 0 USD. I have like fractions of a fraction in there. But then last time I did that, those fractions [ __ ] ballooned. But I had more than fractions. But then yeah, what the [ __ ] bro? Brussels raids Timu and forge study investigation.
I remember this report. I just I I heard about this. I just don't I don't know why I never took it seriously. But yeah, that's that mean I just got notified. So damn, you better log into your lawn term. That's crazy. That migi is going up still. If you don't log into your is it for 30 days? If you don't log into your crypto account, wait, hold on.
Let me read that again. If you do not contact us within 30 days of receiving the email. So, I think it's if you don't check it for two years, two or three years, it's considered abandoned property. Dog, it's harder to abandon a property. Like, if it takes seven years, why are you doing it so quick on [ __ ] digital assets?
Yo, that's crazy, dude. That's a trip. Like literally cuz like if you abandon a property it takes like seven years to go to auction and like you have to not pay taxes for seven years here. Bro, what the [ __ ] Yeah, if you go to jail. Apple CEO discuss smartphone age rules. Uhoh. Well, isn't it going live in Australia?
That's for Google. I think December 26 in Australia to use a search engine, you're going to have to verify your ID. Yeah, that's why I remember they said uh they saw him and Uber's still dumping again. He kind of had negative uh autopilot news. That's great, dude. [ __ ] Gavin. You just paid property taxes for the first time.
Wait, it wasn't you weren't paying it like uh you weren't it wasn't like tied into your mortgage payment. Did you like defer it and pay it all at the end of the year? Well, welcome. Welcome. California property taxes aren't that bad. But yeah, taxes. You're you're moving on. Moving up in life, baby.
That's the you taxes are [ __ ] But yeah, it's part of the game, man. Good thing you paid it. Otherwise, Gavin will take your house. He will take your houses. Mhm. That's crazy. Yeah. All of mine I bundled them in there. I mean, but if you do have a house paid off with no mortgage, you'll have to pay it on your own.
But then you could do it like quarterly or semianually. I'm a sovereign citizen. I'm not pay. It's my land. How can IT'S NOT OWNERSHIP IF I OH, OKAY. Calm down. I ONLY ANSWER TO GOD. OH MY GOOD. How are we? No. Just pay the [ __ ] tax, dude. It's not They're not That's not going to work. I don't answer questions.
my religious beliefs. Your neighbor is like that. He's probably he's either really fun to be around or very obnoxious. It's one or the other. Some [snorts] of them are a good time, bro. Some sovereign citizens, they go hard. So then he's really going to find me then for then they're re if they're really putting in an act the [ __ ] property abandoned property rule they're definitely going to start finding people a million dollars for [ __ ] talking on the internet.
Oh, California. Well, I don't know. My girlfriend said we should just move to Switzerland. You know that? I still think she's a spy, but she's super like Switzerland. You know that? Every time anything she says, "Why don't we move to Switzerland?" She says, "I'd love it." And I'm like, "Fucking I don't like anything about Europe." But, you know, but then again, they're not even they don't even vibe with the EU.
So, that's the only only advantage. Mortgage rates hold steady. the MVP. Oh yeah. Is that so that they could find Satoshi? Uh, Caesars CPS and another one. Couple poppers. Damn it, I can't type. Yeah, Caesar CPS and a what was the other one? GN GN. Yo, Gen Digital just popped up. 2720. They're just not loading.
They're going to move to Florida, Switzerland. I think Zer Zurich Zurich is like the main place. I think Ozerat is where they uh have like cool skiing. And then what's the other one? There's a there's a place where all the Russian people go. the there's like a nice or super bougie ski town. I don't know.
I have to ask my girl CRD all Steve Graasso. It's not gambling. Yeah, I think those are all separate. They all just three threeletter tickers all in a row. The news today is getting ready for Powell. Uh there was Meta News and Baba News in the morning, but they don't really have too much of an effect.
Gold and silver are still being looked at after the last couple days. And now we wait till powpow and the and the fun bunch begin to begin their anti-Trump campaign. But then again, we'll see the dissents depending on the level of dissents we get. Uh it's going to start turning into a a very interesting time.
That's the crazy part because uh I think three descents is like the most since like 200 something. Four descents would be the most since 1992 and then five descents would be the most since 1983. So, we'll see. Yeah, one of the SL. Yeah, bro. That's good. I swore off skiing, too, and snowboarding. I told I'm too I'm too old for that [ __ ] That if I [ __ ] crack my knee, bro, I'm out for like 18 months.
I'm not doing it. I'll do a sled 100%. Have I heard of photonix in place of copper for GPU clusters? I want to say vaguely, but is that one of the ways to save energy? I've heard a lot. And then we've talked about the fision stuff. That's the next level of all of it. Dog, no snowmobiles. I know a guy who died in a snowmobile accident.
I didn't I didn't I knew him and I I found out how this [ __ ] died and it was a snowmobile accident. I was like, "How?" And then I have another friend, their dad died in a [ __ ] skiing accident. I just It doesn't make any I hate it, bro. Did Ken Block die in a snowmobile? I thought he died driving, but he was doing he was like flipping his snowmobile.
No, [clears throat] they would only be able to take your Bitcoin if it's on exchange. So, yeah, they couldn't take any Bitcoin that hasn't hit an exchange. So, yeah, they still couldn't find Satoshi. You didn't know Ken Block? Yeah, Ken Block died a couple years ago, bro. Yeah, but like I tell my girl, I'm like, "You could die skiing." She's just like, "No, you can't." I'm like, "What?" It's insane, though, bro.
These Swiss people are like, they've done it since the day of birth. Like, it's actually nuts, bro. Like, I don't even think my girlfriend knows how to jump. Like, you know what I'm saying? Like, I don't think like, if I told her, I said, "Jump right now." I don't think she could jump. I don't think she knows how to jump.
She's not athletic like that. Like, she don't know how to do that. But then she goes on the [ __ ] skis and just it's it's it's insane, bro. So, no, I don't. Yeah, man. It's [ __ ] wild. So, I'm not even like I just don't I said we don't do that. She said, "Get an instructor." I'm like, "No, I need a I need the turtle.
I need [ __ ] football gear." which is not it's not a good idea. It's experimental. Conduces less heat. I mean, dude, that's whatever like the whoever could come up with the way to save the energy. I mean that is the the barrier we we talked about recently is that and then that's the part I don't you know speaking of all this crypto that's the thing I don't think people really uh really get now is that you you need a lot of power if you want to train any model don't matter what type of chip that's why the TPUs were kind of a crazy update with Google but everything you try try to train anything from scratch it costs so much money in electricity cost hey yo We should do a push-up, you guys.
I'm sorry. I got excited with the Fed. So, we forgot 8:30. I think we were all too excited, but it's 9:30. You guys should stand around. At least relax your eyeballs. Stare away from your computer screen. 10, 20, 30 feet away and just blink a couple times. Go blink blink blink blink blink blink blink blink blink blink.
Oh, wow. I needed that. Oh, that's what's up, baby. Oh my goodness. Wow. Don't underestimate it. You know that's optometrist approved. You know that. That's what the optometrist told me. There's a optometrist recommendation. And please, I have a feeling right now. I have a strange feeling. One of you, you are sitting with your legs wrapped behind your chair.
I don't know why. I feel it. It's odd. You look like you look like a ghetto cowboy. You look like you ride in a weird ass [ __ ] dolphin chair. It's odd. It's giving me bad vibes. So, please correct that and put your legs in front of you. Okay. I sense another person. You are kicking your nuts right now with one of your legs as you lean towards your mouse.
It's very odd. Do you What shape is that? I can't even forecast the shape. You look like a twisted S kicking yourself in the scrotum. It doesn't make any sense. It's It's terrible for you. So, please adjust your posture right now. Okay, just adjust. I know. Just a reminder, that's not going to get you anything in life except pain.
I don't know if you know this. You look like the number four. Yeah. So, please fix that. Okay, I just fix that and you'll be you'll be good to go. All right, [snorts] man. Move around a little bit. I'm doing some hip twists. Oh, I got to get my foam roller. I got to do some some soass. Oh. Oh man. Yeah, there are many types of uh the Swiss people.
They speak Swiss German, then they have another dialect. But yeah, they all speak German. That's why my girl speaks German, French, and some other [ __ ] And then Swiss German. That's why I think she's a spy. And she's like, "That's how the country is." I'm like, "That's CIA training, motherfucker." Mhm.
Not fooling me. That's I'm trying to break her spirit down with McDonald's. I'm trying to get her addicted to McDonald's so she defects from whatever European MI6 organization. You can't resist the 10piece McNuggets and a Big Mac eventually. You see what I'm saying? It's a smart strategy. Uhhuh. And then I bought her a puppy.
How you going to what you going? What are you going to do? I bought you a puppy. How are you going to get mad when you got a puppy? Can't get mad with a puppy. See, I've thought this through. Mhm. The Grinch meal. No, bro. I tried that one. I tried something that was like a limited edition like with a milkshake.
Was it the [ __ ] purple one? And that [ __ ] tasted terrible. They I had one No. Is it the peppermint one? There was one that was just disgusting, dude. Honestly, just [ __ ] give me a Mc Rib and call it a day. The Mc Rib ain't even that good, too. It's not, you know, if we're being honest, the Mc Rib is terrible.
And then any of that chicken [ __ ] that's not a chicken McNugget is terrible. You know that? I I Bro, I have one of them McDonald's like chicken wraps. That [ __ ] was plastic. It was disgusting, dog. I It was disgusting. It felt like, you know, like on the basketball shorts how you have that like elastic waistband.
That's exactly what the chicken felt like. It was disgusting. But yeah, other let's be real. But the McNuggets and a Big Mac, you can't go wrong. A Mc Chicken is fine. But yeah, other than that, no, bro. Mhm. I don't even think it is chicken, dude. It was terrible. I swear it was some 3D printed [ __ ] Oh yeah.
I'm a big fan of McDonald's breakfast. A McGriddle go hard. It goes super hard. Yeah. The Grimish shake is terrible. I remember Remember when everybody was getting hyped up on it and they're like, "Yeah, the Grimace shake. Yeah, it's so good." It tasted terrible, dude. Oh, man. It was not It was not a good time.
That's why that's when I slowly started to realize everybody's just a liar, huh? Everybody just lie for social media, huh? They don't even care. They don't even care how obvious the lie is. You're like, I'm a woman. Okay. All right. All right. I got to go to the bathroom. I do. But please finish your stretches.
That's what I'm doing now. I just got done. Check out, you know, at I got the blood flowing. You can tell by my jokes. All right. So, why is it down 68% year to date? Oh, they had like this huge issue with with like their sales to Argentina and going back and they brought in a new management team a few months ago who came in, maybe it was about a year ago actually, who came in and said like, "Hey, the Argentina business really has been the primary driver of growth." Everyone just kind of freaked out.
So, now there's a credibility problem. So, you you need to get credibility back. You need to get it back to this double digit earnings growth, which it had for years. But that growth needs to be seen as more broad and not focused because of currency issu currency um what should I say like drivers coming from Argentina for years.
So there is a real there is like a real issue there. Okay. Well yeah but they still market likes to call. Yeah. Did you looking at me like you want to say something? No. I I just I'm not being I'm not being critical of your position. I'm actually questioning you as a shareholder. Do you feel as though management has done a good job in navigating the challenges?
because it's not just been one earnings report, it's been several earnings reports. Why not? She's already said that they have a it's a credibility problem. Well, it's tough. And so, so this is the thing. So, you have a relatively new management team and they came in and were kind of like, whoa. Right.
So, it's a couple quarters where they're trying to figure it out. I think they kitchen synced it this time to really say, let's clear the decks. So, you definitely need one or two more to see what this team's doing and how, you know, how they're going to get it back and will they really be able to. We're in in weird spot with it where we've owned it for so long that we actually still have a slight gain on it, but we think it's really undervalued.
That $110 price target, I'm not so sure. So, we may take some off the table next year. You know, I said when when it traded down the first time and I was on, I said, "Look, we will use it as a tax loss, right? We might buy it back." $110 would have looked good at the beginning of the year. Oh, yeah.
Six or whatever it was. Um, so, so it's a tricky one. So, we have like some people with gains, some people with big losses. We have a tax loss that we could use. Do we need to use that this year? It's tricky. It's a pretty bad streak though of four consecutive quarters where you see significant declines post earnings.
That's why. Correct. Somebody says that it's a credibility issue. Yeah. But but it's not the same old management, right? It's a new one. So they you got to give them a chance to get it back. All right, let's get the headlines with Contessa Brewer. Hi, Contessa. Hi there, Scott. Homeland Security has reportedly signed a deal to create a fleet of six Boeing 737s to use for deportation.
The agency will spend nearly $140 million to fund that effort according to the Washington Post. Now, that money reportedly comes from the massive budget increase in the one big beautiful bill passed earlier this year by Congress, which added 170 billion for immigration enforcement. 12 Senate Democrats wrote a letter to the Secretary of the Navy expressing concerns about a review he's conducting into Senator Mark baseless and political.
I could give you a really bad food recommendation. It's bad because it's good and it's unhealthy. Even my mom acknowledged it. My mom bought it for me. And she said she waited to give them to me because she knew I would eat them all. into the French thieves that got away with $100 million in crown jewels at the Lou escaped with 30 seconds to spare.
The probe in the French Senate also dete I'll hurt myself. Mhm. Can you hear it? I don't even know if you guys know about these yet. That's why I don't want to tell you. They're insane. Mhm. Okay, I'll tell you. It's at Costco. What is it called? Oh, yeah. Here it is. Oh, they have them on Amazon. [ __ ] Yeah, bro.
You don't want these. You could hear it, bro. It's so bad. They're like 60 calories a cookie, but then you're going to eat like 10 of them. I use them to take vitamins. So then that way I don't eat my vitamins on an empty stomach. I just eat down like two of these cookies. So yeah, dog. David's Butter Pecan Meltaways.
They're [ __ ] up, dude. They have them every year at Costco. My mom got them last year. She already gave me a box now. They're terrible, dude. They're terribly good. I hate them. I hate how good they are cuz I don't even like these like dry ass cookies. Like these are old people cookies. You know what I'm saying?
These are like old people. Like you would think it's that old like weird dry cookie. No, bro. It's terrible. Sin. You ate half a box, dude. Yeah. No, bro. They're bad. They're very bad. Mhm. Has pecan. It sucks. If you're allergic to nuts, you can't have them unless you're willing to unless you're really willing to die for it.
But that's a personal decision. I did ball yesterday. Mhm. I didn't end up getting in a fight. That was good. That's I had to take it easy though. So I I said Powell day is tomorrow. I can't get too sore. I lifted though too. I got a good lift in. That was nice. And then good stretches. I've discovered some new stretch.
I might need to hit that though. Low key. I've been doing lunges, but I need to see if I could find that stretch for you. Let me see if it loads cuz I can't show you like Instagram [ __ ] without like [ __ ] logging in and I'm not logged in cuz I say I found this stretch on Instagram and it it's it's [ __ ] dope.
Longterm you said skill issue. It is honestly most things I got pretty good discipline, but that cookie, bro. It's not. Nah, bro. It's different. Come on. Please load. I hope this loads. Oh, okay. Ready? So, here. Would you guys like to see the stretches? I'll show you. These are the ones I've been doing the last couple days.
That's why remember when I've been playing the audio and I have to take like a minute at a time cuz I do all of these for like a minute. Holy [ __ ] it loaded. All right, you ready? Here they are. No, no, no. Refresh the [ __ ] So, you do the first one. You go like that. Then this one. This one's hard.
If you have really tight hips, you're going to realize how [ __ ] you are. Yeah. These three right there. That's it. So, one you go left leg, one leg out, and then just push up and hold it for a minute. No, you don't need You don't need beauty moves for women. Then the second one, left, right leg under, left leg over, and then you push them both down.
And then this one will hurt. Yeah, bro. Do all those a minute at a time. Oh, man. Oh, dude. These are fire, bro. Fire. I'm telling you, they've been they've been opening up the hips a little bit. Mhm. Yeah. So, there it is. Good luck. Yeah. No, do them. Do them right now. Honestly, I'm [ __ ] it. I'm going to do it right now.
You know that these are But this is why I would have to play the [ __ ] cuz I'm like, you can't I can't look at the screen the same way. I'm doing that one right now. See, you push up. Oh. I'll show it. No, do the first set first and then I'll redo it. I'm not getting I just got into this, bro. Honestly, that first one, you got to kick the straight leg like really back and then you'll be good.
Oh man. Happy Fed day. This will get you locked in for Powell, bro. It will. You going to be free. free in the lower back. All right, that wasn't a minute, but Okay, here's the second one. It goes quick. You got to watch out. Wait, can I pause it? Yeah. So, go like this. So, lay down. Put your left leg under and then your right leg over.
So, just like that. And then you hold it down. So, you take one leg, one hand pushes your knee down, and then the other hand holds your leg down. This one's hard. I could do it on one side really easily, but then the other side is [ __ ] Oh, it's painful. It's painful. Go. You got to do this one. I don't have the wall heel one.
That one I learned a while ago, but then I've been again when I tighten up. It's simple. Just put your heel against the wall and then just drive your heel into the wall and lunge forward. The other leg isn't going to be on the wall. You put that one in front of you and like do a lunge and then drive your heel into the wall.
You'll feel it through your glute and then the front of it. I'm going hit this one, bro. That's the one right there. This is This one's a little harder. See, I can do it on one side easy. Oh, I'll do this one here. I got to play you propaganda. That's it. But said there could be an upside case next year.
And I think the reason is that the banks are pick up in loan growth especially on the commercial side you know so they are seeing a pickup in terms of corporate loan demand. And I think the second thing is look increased consumer spend is leading to increased consumer lend. The other thing I think that's driving it is the banks are going to benefit from deregulation from a capital standpoint.
There's a lot of excess capital in the banking industry today that is probably going to grow next year as a result of deregulation. And I do think the banks are now at the margin looking at areas where perhaps they've been a little bit more riskaverse from a lending standpoint and looking at at whether or not there's an opportunity.
I mean one of the areas that has come up is commercial real estate lending with a lot of banks saying look this has been shrinking for the last 2 or 3 years. We are now starting to see it plateau, but we are expecting that commercial real estate loan growth could actually grow next year, you know. So, I think the loan growth picture, I think, is actually pretty good.
And also keep in mind, look, lower uh short-term interest rates does. Okay, here's the last one. See this one. So, go put one leg straight going to help. Put your left leg in and then you lean and you just kick it back. This one is going to hurt you, bro. This one's going to hurt you. and I think are feeling better about that metric.
This one you're not. I'm telling you, this one, it looks harder to do, but it's simple. You put one leg on the like back of the knee and then just lean over to that leg that way with the leg kick back. That one will hurt. And then put your arms in front of you. Put your arms in front of you and your head straight.
You're going to [ __ ] you'll even feel it in your chest if you got a tight chest. Without question, one of the most popular has one of its worst days um in 8 months. Damn. Warbe still going. been the man who did the interview on the stage, the conversation that that generated that comment said just now he's surprised.
What What do you do with that as a shareholder? Surprised as well. And I think it now comes down to JP Morgan's ability to increase revenue growth consistent with the expense growth because otherwise you have negative operating leverage. if you don't in 2026 deliver a 9% revenue growth. And by the way, the street doesn't expect they're going to deliver 9% revenue growth.
In 2026, they had a very good year, 12%, the year prior was 22%. So, they've been delivering on that revenue growth. Expenses in the first nine months of this year only grew 4%. So, it it is surprising. And I will be proven wrong in buying JP Morgan last week where I did up around this price level if in fact they don't deliver on revenue growth.
The other element of it is that what does it do for the industry itself? Does it now create an environment where it's almost like an arms race where everyone's spending and again that's a challenge for the certainly the money center banks. You know what it means is that pay attention in January when you get earnings.
All right. There's going to be even more anticipation names in the group, not to mention JPM to hear from JP obviously in the analyst community on what they issue. That one's a little This one's the best one for you. Even though it's the easiest tool, we pay attention. The other two though, they'll just determine next
if your shit's like super tight. Oh, do it. You're They say do it before you like wake up and go to bed and [ __ ] but I think if you just I do it all the time now, [snorts] you know, cuz I did them the other day. My [ __ ] was like really like sore and then nah, I got freed, bro. Longterm dragon breath.
Apple cook discuss smartphones age rules. is reiterating that. Are we still on a delay? I don't know. Ask the news. You left for two weeks. What What did you What did you think was going to happen though? You like me when I go to a restaurant. I try to go to the bathroom before my food gets out there cuz then I'm like, I'm going to leave and then when I come back, the food will be there.
You thought that was going to happen with the stream? Well, I hate to inform you that did not happen. But we talked about it earlier today. Uh we were talking about uh whether or not we were going to uh change anything. We're either going to uh operate the stream exactly how we did this year uh or if you guys want to go back.
But if you want to go gambling mode, we're going to go full gambling mode. So there's no in between. Whatever you do, you must do it hard. You must go all the way. But then again, do you want to destroy society or do you want to plant seeds for the next generation? That's the real question. So Brian Khan pleads guilty to defrauding hedge fund investors.
Happy POW day. The dragon breath is so it relaxes your jaw and like your face muscles and then you get a good deep breath in there. I know. 1 minute and 15. One hour and 15 minutes. So, I got a little mini felo and then I think we could uh uh I think we could what's it called? I think we can uh begin our preview cuz I got a couple of things to go over.
It took me about what I think it took me like 15 or 25 minutes last night to go over, but then I didn't [clears throat] go over the statement as well as some of the other stuff. So, we have a few other things that will be fresh, but yeah, it's going to be both. At least we'll be prepared. I mean, last time we we still were prepared, but we didn't really expect much.
And then Powell came in. He said, "You going to disrespect me?" You know, he had something to prove. But yeah, I am going to uh I'd rather be more prepared than not for power. So, we will see, man. We will see. Oh, you got your first crib. Let's go, baby. Dude, thank you for actually doing it. Thank you for becoming another homeowning Chad.
Thank you for putting yourself on the path to longlasting assets. Amen. Amen. long-term discussion. I think we could do it every day. I mean, I still had a goal this year. Uh we were talking about the diamond. Uh we ended up getting uh Intel, but yeah, I mean I usually do have the same same goal, but it does uh it does get a little different cuz now you know like my goals for like there's thousands of people who have been following along for several years.
So and they've they've followed and grown at a different rate. So, like even in a weird way for newcomers, the goal is going to be different. I mean, you should be a little bit more aggressive and you should you got to also figure out what's best for you. That's why the original video still applies, but people don't like hearing that one.
Uh, but yeah, so it's I'm always going to have a goal. Uh, but then at the same time, too, we're not going to be like restricted to it. Uh, more or less. And then for some people, that's what I'm trying to really guide people on this here is that you got to use the framework, stick to the rules, but my goal isn't necessarily going to be your goal.
All right? Depending on what you're trying to achieve and where you're starting at, you're going to have to and and again, that's why it's more motivation to just put in the time now and get this thing going so that you could get a better foundation because you're going to have to do it regardless. So that is uh but yeah, I don't think that really changed this year.
I mean, you should have been aware of my goals this year. I don't think uh we I don't think we left that out. Where you where you been, dog? [snorts] Yeah, the dragon breath. It hits that hat. You should move your face around, too. But be careful. Don't crush your bones. This isn't uh this isn't looks maxing.
Just get some good relaxation, you know, move around a little bit. I don't think people realize how like still they sit at a computer. It's very easy to get like steel. DRS had a similar laser to Boeing. It's called Dragon Fire. That talk inspired that, huh? That's cool. I didn't know. I didn't even know people were working on that.
Oh [ __ ] this thing's up a lot. I was going to say I thought if that was down on the year, I would have been like, "Wait a minute. You get some laser stocks on the low. Oh, I love pacing. That's how I do my phone calls. I just pace around. Amen. God is good. I agree. I agree. I see it. Just shoot me a prayer, dog.
Give me a good prayer. Live in wisdom and get me a prayer. Okay. But if you live foolishly, you could keep the prayer. You could keep the prayer. I'm good. That's why there's there's some quality in there. Mhm. Going to be quality. TSM. What was the other one? The Migi. Whatever that is keeps going.
All right, I think it's good time. I think we could knock it out. Merry Christmas, Chad. Merry Christmas. long term. How did that get stuck in my head today, bro? Companies like Baba. Yeah, everybody's going to get affected. uh generally some more than others, but yeah, they they had their own things going on today, too.
But and then look at what's happening, too. We're also starting to move. So, we're going to do a a mini fileo and then we're going to do a Fed preview. So, if you would like a mini fileo, stick Honestly, you all have to stick around if you want it. Uh, we're not going to be switching the video today, but yeah, it should be fun for the whole family.
I think it'll be a good time. And then we'll get into the Fed preview right after. So, in the meantime, uh here's uh your boy You get uncle's merry Christmas song. It's the best time of year, Chad. Best time. God bless you. Merry Christmas Chrysler Christmas from my family and misses. I hope you get the things that's not even on your wish list.
I hope you find money doing laundry or the dishes. You a real one. The season will be great. I pray you never see traffic and you never run in late. When you ask your crush out, she'll say yes to the day. And nobody getting mad if you leave food upon your plate. Merry Christmas. It got meaning if you give it some.
I'm always praying for you. And I'm praying for your little ones. Every time you look them in the face, no, you never done. Nah, let that be motivating. I hope every drink you get comes pre-shaking. I hope your Uber don't cancel and is really patient. If you lose your wallet, nobody will take it. They'll return it.
Yep. See, I'm just happy if you happy, G. Every sweet you'll eat this year be made from zero calories. These are all the blessings that I wish for both you and me. So, welcome to the family. But I got a gift for the haters, too. I hope everywhere you go runs out of room. I hope every song you sing is sung out of tune.
Everyone is happy and you're the one that's in the mood. I hope the dinner great you get there they run out of food. I hope you step on Legos every time you enter rooms. I hope you meet a pretty girl but it's just a dude and he doesn't even tell you by day two. Hope you can't find your keys cuz someone probably stole your car.
I hope your Christmas tree falls and then cause a fireball. Hope you find easy parking and then they tow your car for no reason at all. I hope everywhere you go has construction. Everything you have to build will come with no instructions. I hope it doesn't function. I hope you miss the pothole. Avoid it safely then drive into the Hudson.
I hope your family likes you less than all your cousins. I hope you're stressed cuz you're bad at trading options. Actually, I hope it hits and then you get a gift. Then you feel like you can't miss. Then triple up your [ __ ] Get in the money quick. Then Robin Hood goes down and your orders don't submit.
Then the problems still persist by the time it gets refreshed. I hope all of it'll dip. Bye. Okay, hold on. You get one more. I still got to load up some [ __ ] I was enjoying that too much. , that means you going to kill me if it's warm. Me cheap try ski on the arc. Want it easy or in . Tha to ion going to eat me or turn his ass around.
Either way, I will remain up in his name and say a prayer. He had to it's one hell of a decision in it. Hey, if we talk in place, . bust in. Amen. Amen. OH, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, how you doing? Are you ready? Are you feeling good? Are you ready for Jerome Powell in the Fed? I'm excited.
I got a good preview. But before we get into the preview, I just want to talk to you a little bit about life. You know, I give you a nice little pre felo uh or prefed felo. And I got some things for you. You know that I really hope this helps. I really hope it gives you something. You know, it's going to it's already been a fun day.
It's only going to get more fun. We got the holidays. Oh, so many things. But Chad, get a lawnmower, save 10%. And you know what? Just you [clears throat] could cook however you want to cook. Okay? You want to cook where with a hat, you want to cook with a little bit of style, you could cook it up however you want, brother.
You could cook however you want. Just don't add any ingredients. And don't take any away. Meta is dumping. Don't know why. You understand? You could cook however you want, but don't add any ingredients and don't take any away. It's going to get hot while you cooking. And you know what's going to happen?
Some things aren't going to work. You'll find a way. Then everybody's going to be waiting for a plate. You going to have to feed some people. And guess what, brother? When it's time for you to go, you like, I'm hungry. And you going to sit down to get your own plate. Nobody's going to cook for you. But you the chef, baby.
Okay, I'm not talking about cooking. I think that's a little one you might enjoy. But follow along, brothers, and be wise. This is your life. This is your future. Make the most of it. You got the recipe. You got the recipe. That's it. It gets hot in there. Things aren't going to work all the time. You will provide a lot and at the same time it all does.
Boy, if no if Listen, man. Somebody got to do it. I think that's going to be a lot of you. I've already seen it with my own eyes. So, amen. That's just the first part. The second part is society. Don't gamble your future away. And I think what a lot of people are going to notice, give it a couple more years, you know, things happen slowly.
I've said this with a lot of things over the years, I don't know if you've noticed, there's been a lot of stuff that little by little it starts. It takes time. Good and bad all take time. Seeds go in the ground and then seeds develop. Nothing happens overnight with success, failure, all of it. We're going to find out why why a lot of gambling was looked down upon.
You guys ever wondered that? Why there's so many laws against gambling? Why it became such a taboo? You don't know why? We forgot. It's been 40, 50 years. But let me make this one simple for you. And I don't mean to punch some of y'all in the face, but this is true. You've either been on one side or the other.
Gamblers do not take only themselves down. You all think it's about destroying your life. No, you haven't noticed. Gamblers take other people down with them. There's You don't Have you ever had that? You ever try to help somebody? I have. And you believe in them. You're like, "No, just a blip." Do you don't think it you know how many people get into a gambling problem and then they go they go to their parents they'll blow all these opportunities they'll blow all the money they work for and save and then they will have somebody in their life willing to help them and they're like yeah I'm going to change I'm going to do nothing happens and then all they do is they take someone else with them you think it's just about your life it's everybody body.
Gamblers do not take just themselves down. They take other people down with them. That's what we're going to understand in the future. That's what people are going to start to realize. That's why you're going to understand where the taboo came from. Just leave. You have a generation of kids who don't even drink.
You know why? cuz the other generation was a bunch of alcoholics. So what do you think is going to happen with the gambling? So be wise. Again, that's this the reality. You could speculate. There is opportunities out there. This is why mastering yourself in discipline is so important cuz before you know it, if you don't, yes, you're going to take yourself down, but you're going to take a lot of people with you.
Cuz what do you think is going to happen? You wind up into trouble, someone's going to try to help you. And if you don't have the discipline, you don't correct it, you are going to take them down with you or it gets really dark and then you start doing much more shady [ __ ] Once again, taking other people down with you.
Then you'll understand where this taboo came from. Then you'll understand where the laws came from. They didn't come from no reason. It's not like they disappeared either. We just haven't [clears throat] seen it till now. So that's the second one. The third one and then I'll end it with one more thing.
Very, very simple. If you give into the easy stuff, everything is going to get boring. My guy, if you don't discipline yourself now, you don't discipline what you entertain with within life, everything, you keep frying your brain with dopamine without any control over it. Do you not understand what's going to happen?
Everything is going to get boring. So every time you should be doing discipline, working on yourself, making the right decision, you go for the easy cheap fixes. That's why people don't talk about this. That's why lust, it don't even matter if you like if you think lust is spiritually right or wrong.
You always give into that. You always give into addiction and certain things. You're triggering and dumping [ __ ] in your brain. So then when it's time to do the right work and the work that's actually going to advance you, what do you think's going to happen? That shit's going to feel boring. I I think that's what happened to a lot of people.
You had so much stimulus and dopamine, crazy markets here and there, then what happened? If there wasn't any discipline and that's all you were craving, why do you think people like gambling dopamine? than the real [ __ ] the real boring of mastery, the real opportunity that is going to be boring to you.
I would tell any of you right now, you want to build something great, you want to build yourself great, you want to build a business, especially those of you working on business, I don't think you realize you need to control what you're taking in. You need to have this discipline cuz when it's time to work, if all you're doing is chasing the cheap thrills of money, cheap thrills of entertainment, the cheap thrills of lust, of drugs, you name it, alcohol, all of it.
Every single thing you will need to advance your business is going to feel boring. You understand? Cuz think about it. Nothing compares to the dopamine dumps we could get ourselves nowadays. You could go turn on the TV, the phone. Oh man, you could get it anywhere. Everything will become boring. You want to get excited?
Seriously, you know how exciting it is to grow your future? I love it. I think it's one of the most exciting thing. Why do you think I get so excited for some of you? I said, "Wow, you grew up just how I did, man. Some of y'all grew up way worse than I did." And watching y'all make movements, that's a good thing.
You should realize how exciting it is. All of these exciting things, bro. Well, then guess what? If all you keep doing is chasing these cheap thrills, bro, the thing that are really valuable, it's going to feel boring naturally. It makes a lot of sense. That's what I'm saying. This ain't about spiritual.
You know that, right? This has nothing to do with spiritual. None of this has anything to do with what you believe is right or wrong. Moral this, moral that. No, screw all that. I'm just talking about your brain. You keep going for the cheap quick dopamine dumps, bro. The things that are going to advance you, the things that are really worthwhile, the things that are actually valuable are going to feel boring.
You're not going to get excited. It's going to be it's going to feel like a chore to advance yourself, to protect your future, to do all these. It's going to feel like a bore. Your mind ain't going to get excited. You're not going to get motivated. You're not going to be able to sustain it cuz it's boring.
I mean, if you're comparing it to a dopamine dump every 30 minutes, every hour, every time you get stressed out, think about it. That's what you got to watch out for, bro. So, I hope you got get excited. And guess what? Discipline brings that excitement. That's what I've been trying to tell you. That's what I've been trying to show you.
You'll get excited by it. You're going to have to put the other stuff down. You're going to have to decide what's more valuable. Hopefully, you've got to experience both sides. Hopefully, you've got to do it all and say, "Hey, that didn't serve me. That did not help me." All right. Word. Make your choice.
So, the final thing I'll share with you before we get into our Fed preview, it doesn't matter how many books you own, my brother. You only know the ones you read. Buying information does not give you revelation. I don't know if some of y'all were here for that. I told you I wanted revelation. That's something I prayed for coming into this year.
I prayed for it months in advance. That's why I tell y'all, pray for me, bro. That's That's worth a lot. I got what I prayed for. Thank you, Jesus. For real. I prayed for revelation. Things got revealed. Amen. I sought it out. I was seeking something. I got it. You seek, you shall find. Does not matter how many books you own, brother.
You are only going to know the ones you actually read. Buying info does not give you revelation. Being involved, taking it in, soaking in the right things. That's what's going to reveal to you. Discipline is going to reveal to you. You think you think you going to buy enlightenment? You think you going to buy knowledge?
No, man. That's up to you. Knowledge is not power. You know that. Everyone say knowledge is power. Knowledge is power. Knowledge is power. No, it's not. Knowledge of the truth is power. There's nothing more dangerous than learning the wrong thing. Well, you understand? That's why knowledge ain't power.
What if you learn the wrong thing? Are you kidding me? I learned how to cook up crack. What? How is that power? I learned how to gamble. How is that power? I learned how to destroy my life very well, but I didn't learn the things that were going to progress me. I hope you feel me. It is dangerous to learn the long the wrong thing.
Well, you want your knowledge to be power, you must immerse yourself in it. You must unlock it. But it's not just any knowledge being power. Knowledge of the truth is power. Why do you think I've been obsessing over it? Accurate thought, clear thought, clarity, accuracy, and truth. That's what I'm saying, bro.
None of this have to do with spirituality. I've learned it's a dangerous thing to to have a bunch of knowledge that doesn't serve you. It because it doesn't serve you. knowledge of the truth. That is what is going to give you power. You are be you could be able to judge and know what is true and that's the truth and that's the fact.
My brother, you're going to get a lot of things. Anything else? That's I don't know if we could say the same. So, I hope you feel me. But take that to the bank. That is your philosophy, ladies and gentlemen. No. So, God bless every single one of you. And now, are you ready to talk about the Fed? Are you ready to talk about the Fed?
Oh, did I close it? All right, I got one for you. I'm in a coat. Mhm. Well, that was just a quick one, man. I hope it I hope it resonated. I hope it resonated. All right, so I got a couple of screenshots we'll go over. Uh let me see if this actually goes through. Ah, I'm making sure it's the right size.
Hm. Oh, this might work better. I could either do it like this or I could do it like this, but then you won't get the high load ticker. But then I don't know if you could read it as well. So maybe we'll go back and forth between them so that you could read it a little bit. But essentially right here right now you are going to get a SCP.
So you should know this by many years of this but essentially uh right when the release comes out at 11 you are actually going to get a big a big reaction. It's going to have the summary of economic projections. Uh it's going to tell you the inflation expectations, the rates, all of that. But now here's the the real key part to everything going on right now.
This is the exact same setup as last time. There is somewhat limited data, the employment, other information. It hasn't really changed that much. The only thing that's different this time around is that Jerome Powell, everybody is kind of expecting him to be hawkish. If you guys don't know, last time uh people were not really expecting a hawkish Powell.
The market was killing it. Everyone was talking about a bubble and then before you know it, uh, it kind of left us in this weird spot. So, look, you could even see it. Earnings was bottoming out before the Fed and then the market was going up. Everybody was beating their earnings. If you don't notice, the market topped out on the last Powell and then you started to bounce up a little bit after Williams.
Remember when he pulled the parachute? Uh, there's even another one. Oh, I guess I could use this one. So, yeah, literally earnings estimates were running up. The thing that topped everything out in October, it was literally Powell October 29th. So, that's why we had a big reaction. It wasn't anything underneath the surface.
It was more so everything going on with Powell and the rate cut odds. And that's why I'm saying it's a very similar setup to today, but this time people are actually expecting it and pricing it in. So this is what you got to watch out for. Essentially, we're going to see what he says. We're going to see the SCP.
It's a hawkish cut. And by hawkish cut, if you don't understand what that means, people are pretty much saying that Powell is going to cut rates. And what's hawkish is he is going to give you pretty much no clarity on the next cut or he's going to insinuate that they are going to wait until they cut.
That's what's hawkish about it. So you're going to get your rate cut, but you're not going to know when there's going to be another rate cut. So here's one of your easy factors to look for today. As simple as this. If they start saying they're going to wait till March or June to cut, if that is expressed through the summary of economic projections, if that is expressed through the Powell press conference, that is going to be hawkish.
That will be bearish. That is the hawkish element of it. However, if for some reason statement SCP or even the press conference, if he implies that a January cut is on the table, that's actually going to be dovish. That would be unexpected because people are not really expecting that right now. So coming into today, the next 40 minutes or so, people are expecting Powell to give you a rate cut but then not give you a rate cut at the next meeting, possibly up to the next two meetings.
So if he comes in and somehow implies him, the Fed, the other board members, if they could somehow imply that you're going to get a rate cut in January, that's unexpectedly bullish and people will react. But then there is a scenario too where too bullish might also be bad. But we'll talk about that in a little bit.
So that's your first key. And like I'm saying now, the other thing you got to watch out for is the rate cuts for next year. So if you're not aware, pretty much including tomorrow or today now you are pricing in about three cuts between now and the end of 2026. The odds of a January cut are about 30.
So that's why I'm saying it's unexpected. And if that moves around, that could be more bullish or bearish. But really, what we're looking for is the the summary or the excuse me, the terminal rate on the PCE or the terminal Feds rate uh aka PCE doesn't go high. It's going to be about about three cuts and a terminal rate of around 3.0 to 3.25.
That prices in three cuts. Essentially, it's a cut today and then either a cut in January, March or June, then a cut in August, and then a cut at the end of the year next year. That gets you to about three cuts or it could be less or more. And now, depending on what we get here in the next 20 minutes, if we start to price in more than two or three cuts, more or less, that is also going to start changing things.
And then look at the dot plot because if that PCE jumps and they start pricing in a higher terminal then or a higher excuse me not a higher terminal a higher PCE then they are going to price in a higher terminal which would mean less rate cuts more hawkish but once again as it comes out that's what we're going to start getting is that essentially if there is a if there if they're all expecting inflation to go up uh growth or unemployment to go up and then they're not pricing in that many rate cuts, people are going to take that negatively.
And if it prices in anything more than three, that'll be more hawkish. But again, that is what the market's ready for. But if they start saying, "No, inflation's going to go lower." If they're saying unemployment will will be up to justify more rate cuts and it's a high unemployment with low inflation, that's going to be more bullish as that means you got way more than three rate cuts coming in.
So keep your eyes out for that. And now this is the best part about today. This is your secret sauce. Uh I was talking about this in the morning and with some of the other guys last night. Very simple. The dot plot is much more important than any other meeting. Why? Because Powell is essentially becoming a lame duck.
You've heard of a lame duck presidency. It's pretty much where they're in they're president and Congress is in the way or they're about to leave and they can't really do much. Same thing with Powell. This is one of four final meetings. Uh really after the March meeting, it starts to turn into the transition period.
Powell may remain on the board, but essentially his power is dwindling. Now, that's funny because I said this to you guys last Fed meeting and then he ended up coming out swinging and he said, "Put some respect on my name." And you saw the market reaction. I mean, he singly single-handedly stopped some of that bubble and rally that we saw last year.
So, this is where it gets interesting now because you have the dot plot. So, if Powell is going in the next couple of months, yeah, he has weight, but what's the topic everybody keeps bringing up? They keep bringing up all the Fed chairs. They keep talking about all these other Fed governors and where they stand and how the new chair will have to do this.
Whether or not it's true or not, everybody's bringing this up a lot. And that's why the dot plot's going to have much more important importance cuz you're going to be able to see where the other Fed biases are at. I hope you are getting that. That's actually very very important. So think about it. If that starts to occur, then what does that what does this start to imply?
that doesn't matter what Powell says or does. If you get a bunch of other guys that lean heavily in one direction, you're going to know what the next Fed chair is up against and you're going to know whether or not there's a hawkish or a more dovish bar or how stable that is. Cuz again, if the dot plot is really spread out uh and it's showing the Fed members are all over the place, that means everybody's prone to changing.
But if it's really skewed and a bunch of them are dovish, a bunch of them and more of them are hawkish, it's going to be more of an uphill battle. So that's why people keep bringing up the descents to highlight it. But now with a new Fed chair and with this Fed chair leaving, it's going to be actually crucial because more descents, it's going to let you kind of know where the board stands and what you're going to be getting into.
Ideally, why I'm calling this the secret sauce because the dot plot and the SCP, it will actually be more indicative of future Fed policy in the bar than almost anything Powell does. Now, everybody is going to listen to Powell and listen to the press conference, but yeah, this is saying a lot if you really want to put it into perspective.
So, keep that in mind. And then the other part is the descents. Again, I said this earlier, four descents would be the most since 1992 and then five would be the most since 1983. So, we might get a five. Remember, it was just the other day we had the three and everybody was freaking out. But then again, people dissenting means they disagree.
So, if Powell and the Fed come to the conclusion that they're going to cut rates and that they believe certain things about the the bar, and that's something you got to realize. I think I have it on the next one. Yeah. uh the bar that's gonna people could disscent against that and that's where I'm saying that's going to paint the the composition of the Fed board.
That's what you what what is so important today because depending on how many people are pulling apart, pulling for, pulling against, that is going to be the environment and the context that the next guy is going to be inheriting. And that's going to let you know where things will be. especially if you care about short-term rates, especially if you care about how many more rate cuts into 2026, how these guys are spread up is going to be crucial.
So, keep your eyes out for it. But there is that. And now, finally, SPY is coming down in a little bit. Again, I said we'll go back and forth between these, but the final part, and I got a couple more, uh, but the statement changes. So, I have a couple of them. Uh, I have a couple to show you here. Uh I have both a mortgage Stanley and a Goldman Sachs sample and then I have my own as well.
Uh but the statement changes are more likely. This is what's going to be hawkish. So remember SCP comes out with the statement here in the next like 30 or so minutes. But this is how they're going to communicate the hawkishness by making this statement pretty much explain it's going to explain what the bar is for future cuts or it'll explain some of the economic situation and how the Fed is viewing it.
Right? If they're saying it's still uncertain if unemployment if unemployment is high but hasn't changed much. All that is insinuating the exact same circumstance as last time. And that doesn't necess again that means the whole cut and have doubt hawkish cut. But this is also going to be where we'll get clues of any sort of like bar.
If the Fed wants to start, you know, of all these Fed board members, if they want to kind of make it clear that they need employment or need the economy or need inflation to do certain things or a terminal rate, a neutral rate, this is where we might start to see it in the statement. And literally whether there is lack of data or not, this is how we're going to know through partially, again, I think the SCP is going to show more, but the statement itself, there's some opportunities for some key changes.
That's what's going to give you the opportunity to to get an idea of what how hawkish or dovish we're dealing with. So, if the bar isn't set high in the statement, the only thing we're going to have to interpret will be the dot plot. But then, if the there's a really hawkish statement and then a hawkish dot plot, maybe it comes in more hawkish or maybe it'll you know what what's been happening lately.
And I I wouldn't doubt Powell to do this cuz I'm telling you, dot plots's way more important this time, but what's Powell's role? They go and create one picture. They give you one hawkish, one dovish, and then Powell is the guy that comes in and pretty much smooths it around the edges on the press conference.
So, keep that in mind. But here's one statement projection. I believe this is from Morgan Stanley. So, August and September. And this is they don't think something's going to change here. But this is where I'm saying, oh, I should have I should have edited this one. But they say inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.
If they want this will change if they want to go either hawkish or more dovish they're going to change that or they're going to explain if employment has either moderated remain low so on and so forth these are the potential changes so watch for paragraph one if they really want to knock home a pretty big change uh that's what they're going to start showing uh but other than that Morgan Stanley only expects the first paragraph to change and then they're going to change the numbers and then in considering the extent in timing of additional adjustments.
This is the sentence you are going to want to look for because this is going to let you know if they are setting a bar for the next cut. Do I hope you guys all understand about what I'm saying with this one cuz it is very important because essentially what do you care about? How many more rate cuts are they going to be cutting?
How much are they cutting next year? What if you get a new Fed chair? Like we said, we want to know what they're all thinking. If they give you a bar in a target, that's going to play this game again. That's kind of And then again, last time they put in considering the extent of timing. Do you guys remember what happened last time?
When was the last time they used the extend and timing of they said this before? Do you remember? Do you remember the long term is high. So while you answer that question, the other thing they continue to decide uh conclude the aggregate. This just has to do with QT and then everything is just going to be about the uh the uh what's it called?
[snorts] The uh descents. So that's from Morgan Stanley. So the extended timing of additional cuts. When was the last time they said that? Mhm. So here's another one. Uh, is this one from Goldman? I believe so. They think it'll get the red and then they also believe the extended timing of this is what is going to make it a hawkish cut.
When was the last time you heard hawkish cut? You didn't hear it last time. That's why everybody got surprised. See, and they think the e economy continue to expand. So that's going to be a little bit more hawkish because again if the economy is doing good and expanding well that's going to support the next line.
So yeah the extended timing of the cut. What does that relate to? Very important. When was the last time you saw that little little pop quiz mother? Do you remember D. Yep. Before the election, aka that's what they do. That's what they say when they want to pause. So the whole determining the extent in timing, that's the pause line.
So that's why, think about it, they cut, then they cut again recently, and now if they're going to cut today and want to stop, call timeout. Once again, we get that line about pausing cuz remember they cut right before the election and then they paused for a couple months. Do you guys remember that or did we memoryhole that?
So yeah, tada. So yeah, that's the that's the whole line right there. And that's why that's what made it a that was the last time you even heard about hawkish cut. So that's where we're at now. So other than that, like we said, uh the last time the market really rallied. Uh it was the the market rally was halted was due to Powell earnings bottomed out.
Nothing changed. And really that'll be the risk again if Powell really comes swinging. If the Fed composition is really hawkish and they are going to make it clear there's no chance of a cut in January and this cutting cycle is coming to a stop today until either the next guy or whatever bar they want to give us then that's going to set the groundwork and and we'll see and then end of the year uh is usually a little bit more bullish.
So, we will find out, my friends. We will find out. But other than that, uh it'll be more hawkish again. If they start talking about labor market weakening, uh that that would actually or the labor market not weakening, that's going to be more hawkish. Or if they're going to say that they need the labor market to weaken substantially, if they put that in the statement, that will be hawkish.
Uh again, 35 to 37. If they start to say that's not really restrictive, that's also going to be hawkish as well. That's how B Powell might say this during the press conference. And you might watch them the ALOS tank it. Every time he talks about restrictive, they freak out. But if he starts to say, well, we're cutting, but we don't really see this as really restrictive.
That means him, he's pretty much saying he doesn't think the rates are really that high and that's why they're pausing because yeah, it's it's not that restrictive. That would be hawkish. However, if he comes in today and then he starts saying how January is just is more than just data dependent and they start hinting at that or if he just brings it up somehow, market's going to love it.
And then if they start talking, uh, he's not supposed to. there is a I think like a 5% probability that they actually talk about the balance sheet and that growing remember we had the QT stuff but if he starts talking about growing the balance sheet somebody might ask him uh and if he does and that leads to something good then well there you go my friends you might actually get a little bit more of a dovish impact so other than that that is all that I have for you I think I might have one more thing actually but Yeah, welcome to the hawkish cut.
And hopefully you're understanding why it's why it's hawkish. They're going to cut, introduce doubt for the next cut, and then after they stop cutting, you don't know when the next time they're going to cut's going to be. It could be either January, March, or June. So, if we don't get that, then there you go.
But a lot will be dependent on the dot plot. Like I'm saying, uh I think the dot plot is really going to explain a lot and that is going to have slightly some more importance than everything else. So, good luck and God bless America, Chad. God bless America. So, thank you for your time and get ready.
Uh it starts in what 23 minutes and then we're going to get our boy Pow Pow. Uh 30 minutes after that, we'll start getting some of the feeds up. Where is my pretty pictures? Oh, I have a couple more projections for you. So, here was the last time that the FOMC saw descents again. I think even Bloomberg, one of you guys just said that Bloomberg is talking about the most descents, too, since 1983.
That is what happened last time. Uh, or last time it was what, since 1992. But you would need five descents. That's pretty wild. So, take a look. I mean last time we were at like two descents and people were freaking out. Three would be the highest since like 2010 or or the '9s or four would be and then five again that just that this is five.
So if we get five this is where you would be at in terms of governors dissenting. So but then again whether there are dissents for more or less cuts that's going to determine like I'm saying are people going to be more supportive of the next guy or are they going to fight? That's why today is kind of a little bit more important for that dot plot.
So that's the first one. Uh the second one, this is what every single person has said from November. So remember we topped out on October 29th and then what started to happen? You started to get all of these Fed guys. They started coming in and one after the next. This was the parachute. Do you guys remember that?
Remember we were talking about the parachute. Where's the other chart? So again, this was Powell and then all of a sudden we start dumping and then the vice chair comes in and he's like, "Yeah, well I see balance of risk in the economy have shifted with increased downside risk to employment compared to upside which have declined recently." Does that sound Does that sound familiar?
And then what did Williams say? I view monetary policy as modestly restrictive and somewhat less than before our recent actions. Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near-term target. So, that was really the parachute. But the vice chair did come in, start warming it up, and then Fed Williams of New York, that's what saved everything.
Does that sound familiar? And why? Because he said he's down to cut rates again. And remember after Powell came on, they were like, "Nah, we're not cutting rates." The odds went from 80 to like 30. And then after that comment right here, it started running up. But then you had Fed Barkin layoff announcement.
Large companies, they give additional cause for caution on the labor market. It believes inflation is elevated, but it isn't likely to increase. That's dovish. More cuts. Fed hammock. Lowering interest rates to support labor market risk prolonging the period of elevated inflation. and could also encourage risk-taking in financial markets.
So, where where do you think Hammock is going to stand today? So, Jefferson says he sees a balanced risk. Barkin said he's worried about layoffs. And then Fed Hammock says lowering rates to support labor market. He acknowledges the labor. She acknowledges the labor market, but then is worried about inflation.
Where do you think she stands on that? Do you know? Do you remember? Oil is popping up. I have my gold chart up still. They're probably not down. Yeah, Fed Hammock doesn't want to cut. No. So, that could be a potential denter. Fed Bar, I'm concerned we're seeing inflation around 3%. Where do you think he stands?
I don't even have to read the rest of it. Anybody worried about inflation doesn't want to cut. Anybody worried about labor, they're going to want to cut. Tada. So that way too, you could pretty much forecast who is going to be what dot or you could forecast if there's more dots for lower labor, they're more likely to cut.
And vice versa, if you have more dots towards higher PCE, they're more likely to not want to cut. That has been the whole tariff issue that we have really been dealing with all year. So here's a projection of the SCP. So again, this is this is a forecast. This is from Bank of America, uh, Morgan Stanley.
So, they're pretty much expecting that the, uh, GDP will go a little higher for end of the year. GDP will increase in 2026. Unemployment will slightly increase. They think PCE will stay the same. And then core PCE will also stay the same. And then the terminal 3.1. Right now, after the last meeting, it was at 3.37 3.4.
So if that comes in 31, that's three cuts by the end of the year or end of 2026. You get a cut today that lowers you to 35 and then another three to get you to the lower end of that range. And then here is a forecasted projection. This is where it gets crazy. Oh, I don't know. I think it highlights it right here.
But pretty much on a lot of these charts, like we're telling you, if just one or two Fed members changes, that could adjust. that could get you either you're getting four cuts in 2026 or you're getting three and then again you get a couple of these top outliers to really change then we start then we're in business but really what I would look for today is big dispersion aka if you really want to get uncertainty and if it's really going to be hawkish or we're really going to get an idea of where the Fed is at these dots are going to be all over the place that means every it's a [ __ ] mutiny that's that's the whole point remember people were talking about that last time on whether or not it was going to be a mutiny, but think about it.
If you get five descents and then the dots are scattered, I don't think the market's going to like that. I think that's going to give you a lot more doubt, even if the SEP and a lot of other things read the exact same way. So, that's what we're really going to be looking for. But other than that, it only takes a couple.
But then again, look at end of 2025. Most of them are un Well, again, this is the last meeting, so it's easy to be uniform. But take a look at 2026. You know, here's September. This is the forecast for today. So, pretty much somebody who thinks that we should have um Which one is this? Uh is that Oh, yeah.
No, this is all for the terminal, right? Damn. I thought they were going to have one for inflation, too. So, that means one of the people who wanted a cut is going to back out. The same people who think we should be at the three cuts are going to stay the same. You're going to get one more person moving here towards like just above the three cut range and then you're going to have a little bit more everyone's just going to pretty much align there and then these guys who are a little bit more hawkish last time they're pretty much going to disperse in there.
It kind of looks like a downside arrow. But like I'm saying, if this if you get something outside of this realm and we got pretty much if any of these guys move higher and then any of these guys move lower, it's going to be a damn mutiny. But then again, we'll see. And if the market really wants to uh or if the Fed wants to preserve some credibility, they they may fight against that.
But then again, we don't know what's going on in the meeting and what's going through Powell's head. as you know, he's on the precipice of either closing out his legacy or becoming the lame duck. We will find out on the next episode of the Fed. And then, yeah, this is our last Fed meeting of the year.
So, that is all that I have. If you have any questions, feel free to let me know now. Uh otherwise, we will begin in 15 minutes. Oh my goodness, brothers. Oh my goodness. Are you ready? It's game time, baby. It's game time. I'm excited. Do you remember the long term is high? All right. I might need to go get me a carbo.
It all depends on on how long we do this. Do you remember a potential mutiny. Well, yeah, it might not be that bad, though. I mean, it's just going to let you know what I, you know, mutiny is fun to say, but it's just going to let you know that we're going to uh just next year is just going to kind of have the same doubt we had this year.
That's it. Like remember, market was doing good. We were killing it all the way until August. Everybody was like, "Yeah, this is going to happen. This is going to happen." It's just going to be uncertainty. And remember, the market doesn't like uncertainty. So, it just if they want to play this game where, you know, they want you to not know what's going to happen next and kind of debate whether or not we should be getting cuts or to justify and defend their position.
Remember, half of these guys, they think uh they think that you're going to be getting inflation next year because of tariffs. The other half are saying they're worried about whatever is going to happen with uh with your boy unemployment. And then but remember that was their primary goal and then they everybody ignored unemployment.
Remember just up until the this the election it was all about unemployment and then all of a sudden it now became about inflation again. Uh and then you've done that for a year even though they didn't have any data for inflation. It's not as if inflation went up, but then what happened last time, you also you had the data being hidden because of the government shutdown and they used that to justify even though they gave the cut, they still were that's where that's where the Fed and the dissension started to get crazy because they're saying, "Well, we don't know the data.
How can we act if we're going to be data dependent?" And that's why today, depending on the standard they set for data dependent, that's pretty much going to be the next tip in all of this. So, it will be a mutiny more or less if they're all over the place, but it's not I mean, they're all still working together.
We all still have to deal with it. But mutiny is just going to be uncertainty and then it's it's going to really set the stage for what people will expect in policy and then what we have to expect with the next Fed chair and what they're going to be up against. But pretty much, let me put it this way.
If there's a lot of dissensions, there's a lot of things going crazy with the dot plot and they're all over the place, the problem is just going to mean that whoever the next Fed chair is going to come in, it's going to be a lot more difficult for them to follow a plan. Or again, for some of you guys, you know, think about it.
If I told you Donald Trump is going to get his choice of a Fed chair, what are 60% of people going to assume? He's just going to do what Donald Trump wantth, right? That makes sense. But then if the whole entire Fed is already [ __ ] put going on strike against that, how easy is that going to be if you have 18 19 for Fed members all [ __ ] pulling apart the most descent since the 80s and one half is saying inflation, the other half is saying unemployment and then or maybe another third third and one third is saying we do nothing.
We have no idea. So that just means it's going to be a lot more of an uphill battle and you can't even be certain in the idea that whoever even if Trump gets his pick, it's not going to be as strong because now you're going to have to go against again 19 people uh to to play this game. Even though the Fed chair ultimately gets to make the decision, has a little bit more power there.
Remember these guys set the [ __ ] dot plot, the median. So these dots matter. And now that the Fed chair who is, you know, brought everybody together, call it whatever you want, he's leaving. So that's why I saying he's going to start becoming a lame duck. But now at the same time, these dots, the dots are going to give us more of a forecast.
And that's why today is kind of unique more so than any other Fed meeting. Not only is it the last one for this year uh to wrap up the year, but then it's really going to be about uh these dots are are really going to give you the forecasting power. So, cuz again, until you're going to have two, three more meetings with the same Fed members and that's going to last you into the next quarter if not two quarters into next year before the new guy even gets a hold or maybe then we might even get some new Fed members as well.
So hopefully you understand this is what makes it uh so important today. But Godspeed and good luck my friends. We got 10 minutes. So remember uh we're going to be getting uh uh what's it called? We're going to be getting the uh the statement out in 10 minutes. We gave you the uh the things to look for in terms of the of the broader SCP as well as the statement.
And then 30 minutes after that, you're going to get drone pal long term every day. I think the probability is high for Kevin Hasset to be the member, but even then the rate cut odds right now three cuts. So keep that in mind. That's why it could change drastically. If the dots are spread out, that three might become four or that three might become two or one.
And then that's what we're saying. And if that statement comes in with certain changes or a higher bar, more emphasis on unemployment or more emphasis on inflation, one more a more emphasis on one or the other, that that that'll probably count for another cut or two. So, we don't really even know. But the odds of him being the chair, I think, are are pretty high right now.
I would like to say 80 90%. But it's just how everyone's been talking about it. Uh even the the president himself long term every day. Alrighty. Do they have the little fed video up or no? Mhm. Yeah. The Fed is already live, dude. Isn't that crazy, bro? Dude, what the [ __ ] happening? Oh [ __ ] dude.
All right. Yeah, I was tweaking out. All right, so I'll have all of them up. The fed one's pretty quick usually, but my fed one's lagging for some reason. It's lagging hardcore. But yeah, I'll have both of these. We'll get the fastest feed. a find a no one minute delay. Are you seriously asking that question or are you just talking [ __ ] Cuz there's no way you've done years of this and you don't know where to find the Fed.
Uh so in a weird way, you just kind of in the effort to talk [ __ ] you kind of look dumb. Uh I mean that in love. Uh but you could go to the Fed website uh to get it. But I do believe uh even with a delay on any stream uh we should still have the fastest one. So yeah, good luck, brother. Good luck.
Good luck. Long term every day. All right. Well, get ready and I will BRB. Fed decision minutes away. Here's my uncle's Christmas song. Merry Christmas. It's the best time of year, Chad. God bless you. Merry Christmas. Chrysler Christmas from my family and misses. I hope you get the things that's not even on your wish list.
I hope you find money doing laundry or the dishes. You a real one. The season will be great. I pray you never see traffic and you never run in late. When you ask her crush out, she'll say yes to the day. And nobody getting mad if you leave food upon your plate. Merry Christmas. It got meaning if you give it some.
I'm always praying for you. And I'm praying for your little ones. Every time you look them in the face, no, you never done. Let that be motivating. I hope every drink you get comes pre-shaking. I hope your Uber don't cancel and is really patient. If you lose your wallet, nobody will take it. They'll return it.
Yep. See, I'm just happy if you happy, G. Every sweet you'll eat this year be made from zero calories. These are all the blessings that I wish for both you and me. So, welcome to the family. But I got a gift for the haters, too. I hope everywhere you go runs out of room. I hope every song you sing is sung out of tune.
Everyone is happy and you're the one that's in the mood. I hope the dinner great, you get there, they run out of food. I hope you step on Legos every time you enter rooms. I hope you meet a pretty girl, but it's just a dude and he doesn't even tell you by day two. Hope you can't find your keys cuz someone probably stole your car.
I hope your Christmas tree falls and then cause a fireball. Hope you find easy parking and then they tow your car for no reason at all. I hope everywhere you go has construction. Everything you have to build will come with no instructions. I hope it doesn't function. I hope you miss the pothole. Avoid it safely.
Then drive into the Hudson. I hope your family likes you less than all your cousins. I hope you're stressed cuz you're bad at trading options. Actually, I hope it hits. And then you get a gift. Then you feel like you can't miss. Then triple up your [ __ ] Get in the money quick. Then Robin Hood goes down and your orders don't submit.
Then the problem still persists by the time it gets refreshed. I hope all of it'll dip. Bye bye. So yeah, get ready. Uh you can also join the locked in too for real time. Uh that's for the that's for the gamblers because I don't want you to gamble on there. I don't know. I mean I am going to be looking at bonds.
I would watch gold and silver too, but anything in real time. Uh we're going to save that for the locked in guys. Otherwise, I think many many years of your Fed training here at the Colt should help you out. And then as we are about to begin here in a couple minutes, uh again, you could get the live video on the on the Fed website.
But let's get that out the way. Uh what you want to look for, go to meeting calendars and information, and then right away, I would go for the projection materials. Again, it's going to take a little bit to analyze cuz we could go through uh we could go through the damn uh Oh [ __ ] Who's [ __ ] playing that?
Oh, where did that come from? Was that here? Oh, was that not muted? That was another F. Oh, man. They you know they delay it too on the other one. Ah. Oh, my shit's already lagging. Mhm. But yeah, go to the Fed website and then uh it'll literally be on uh what's it called? It'll be on meeting calendar and information.
Yeah, there you go. I think I accidentally clicked it. So yeah, under projection materials, that's what we're going to be really looking for. So it's going to be a mix of both. Uh you pretty much have to go through the projection materials and then we're going to go through the statement. And depending on how that plays out, you will be good to go.
And then I will throw up a wire for you if you want the easy ones. So yeah, you're going to get the quick headlines over here and that will give you uh it'll be up in red. Pretty much the simple one. Well, get ready, man. You got about a minute and a half, maybe less, maybe more uh depending on your lag.
So get ready, baby. Mhm. Hey man, merry Christmas. Merry Christmas, baby. Oh, welcome. Welcome. There you go. They said, "I want some real time." Let's see. So, be careful. Gam remember last time it was a [ __ ] show. Last time, Powell. Well, no, too. So, again, there is going to be a big difference as well uh between uh what's it called?
There's going to be a big difference between how he sounds and what is read. So, he might do that again. He might literally it's going to read one way. We're gonna see the dot plot and then after that, yeah, it's just going to be about what Powell wants to do cuz remember people were feeling good last time and it seemed pretty okay, but then uh Powell did come in with the not a foregone conclusion.
So, watch out for that. Watch out for January hints. Watch out for June hints. And then if he does start to to play the pause game, uh you are going to get another reaction there as well. So get ready. Yeah, crypto too. I mean, considering how it moved. All right, less than 30 seconds. Good luck, baby.
Shout out Chattonia. It's here. I'm excited, bro. the last Fed meeting of the year. There will only be three more Powels after this. Maybe arguably two. So get ready. Get ready. Four, two, one. And we're off. Uh 3.1 on the Fed funds rate. So yeah, three cuts priced in. Uh decision 375. They cut unemployment rate of 44.
Let's just go take a look at the PDF. I'm going to go to the projection before the statement. So September. Ooh yeah. They think the economy is going to do good. They're not worried about employ. Oh, inflation lower. Oh [ __ ] What the [ __ ] These guy. Wait, no. No, that has to be the Is that the other one?
Oh yeah, they f I was going to say no [ __ ] way. Hold up. Yeah. No, it's still a GDP up. Wait a minute. Federal funds rate 3.4. That's a little bit higher. Why? What is keep giving me the wrong way? That 2024. No. Yeah, that was the right one. No [ __ ] way. Yeah. 31. Uh, inflation's lower, dude. So, yeah, this is perfect.
What the [ __ ] Mhm. They now see GDP at 2.3. Yeah, that's odd. So, they don't they're not worried about employment unemployment. This is where it's going to get weird. Let's go see the dots right now. But for now, oh, you have a bigger outlier. That's [ __ ] [ __ ] But yeah, that's different than that projection.
So, couple of the guys went down, but then you had you had a couple more people go a little bit lower. So, that is pretty dovish for right now. You got to wait till Powell bats it down. They remove description of unemployment rate is low. Bond buying to be limited to shorter term treasuries. Goulsby and Schmid descented and no cut.
[ __ ] desented in favor of half a point cut 9 to3. So he only had what? Three descents. That wasn't as bad. All right, let me go to the statement. That's surprising. I think it's it wasn't as hawkish, bro. That's uh that was not as hawkish surprisingly. So available indicators suggest economy has been expanding at moderate pace.
Job gains have slowed. Unemployment rate has edged up through September. So yeah, they didn't say anything about it being low or not. So that's a little bit more supportive of the cuts. And then they did start saying about purchases. They're going to start buying Treasury bills on December 12th. Okay, that was the unexpected part.
Remember I was telling you there was a low chance that they were going to bring that up. They actually brought it up. So yeah, they're going to be buying bonds now. It was a dovish cut. I I would argue it really this wasn't this does not read hawkish yet. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.
Again, we're reading for a bar. Seeks to achieve uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The committee has attended to risk on both sides of the dual mandate in support of its gold in light of the shift of balance of risk in considering the extended timing. So look, this is the OG phrase though.
That's your hawkishness. It wasn't It could have been more hawkishness, but they still have it in there. So that's what you got to watch out for. Yeah. So it's still somewhat in there. But again, the dot plot, the terminal, the unemployment and PCE, none of that indicates that we're uh that were scared of uh your boy.
It it honestly it doesn't even seem like it doesn't seem that bad for Hasset. If he is gonna come in merge and imp the economy will take into account [ __ ] Goulsby and Schmid so three descents you again people were thinking you were going to get five so that wasn't that bad the feds again you have it's literally three cuts though so that didn't change and then everything else is uh good.
It's weird that they said that the unemployment rate either remained low or high. Which one was it? But yeah, watch gold and silver off of this and then the dollar. But you got to wait to see Powell's attitude. That's weird. That wasn't as hawkish, though. I mean, you got everything you expected. I would argue that you just didn't get as many hawkish views that you could have had.
I remember you I don't know if you guys saw it. I had to click back and make sure I was on the right one. That's what I'm saying, bro. They're saying the economy is going to go up. Unemployment range is going to chill. Unemployment will get better in 2027 and then they didn't think it's going to move from last time.
But then again, they have the same exact setup. Uh so you got to think about it. It's the they could argue if he wants to he could still bat this down cuz then he could just play the game and they could say, "Well, yeah, we didn't have the data. We still took it as risk management. You got the in light of what's it called?
Or in the timing of future adjustments, they hit you with that line. That's the hawkish part. But the statement, it could have read more hawkish. The dot plot could have been more hawkish, but they think inflation is going down. But that had to be one dot. Let me see if I can find that one. Very interesting.
Let's see. I don't know. You can see this is where look at the central tendency. Get rid of the high and low. if you got rid of the outliers, it's still this still reads pretty [ __ ] dovish. So, yeah, I think he might add a little bit more doubt, but I'm leaning towards this was a dovish cut. Where's the bonds?
The bonds should catch a bid if that was the case. But then again, if the bonds catch too much of a bid, uh that was one of those scenarios where it gets a little too too hawkish. Let's compare it to the last one. Yeah. So, you see what I'm saying here? Let's pull them up side by side. So, you had one person.
This was the last one or no, this is the new one. You had one more person. One person said we should be higher. One more person went lower. And then everything pretty much was the same. And then one of these guys dropped off. One of these guys got converted. So that's it. One went higher, one went lower, and then one went really low.
That's it. So that that's what it kind of makes sense. That's why I saying look at the central tendency. You could get rid of the outliers, the high and low, and it still reads generally the same. Not to mention, they didn't change anything else. So I view this as uh honestly I view this as positivity for the uh for Hasset.
That's the I think that's the real story until Powell [ __ ] this up because essentially uh they're this is that does that looks a lot better. Like if I was Kevin Hasset and think about it, we were just talking mutiny. That wasn't that's this is nothing close to a mutiny. If anything now you got one person the highest they think you're going to go is four, but then somebody flipped lower.
That could have Oh, John Williams. Duh. Yeah, that probably that was your parachute to be honest. But that was that's just dovish, dude. But again, I think that might backfire if the bonds get [ __ ] up a little bit. But for now, everybody was prepared for a more hawkish outcome. I would argue that this is dovish.
And you're getting the [ __ ] buying of treasuries. Hold on. We haven't even talked about that. That wasn't supposed to come up. Yeah, bro. That's the That's the other part about it. They just said, Let me see. Where's it at? Yeah, that reserve balance of declined and will initiate purchases of shorter term treasury securities as needed.
That wasn't there. That wasn't supposed to come up. They're only going to do it on the short end, but yeah, that's the Yeah, that wasn't supposed to be in there. So, it's way more dovish, dude. Habibi, easy. So, yeah, the risk now is Powell and what he says about uh about like January and then if we get any even gold's ripping off of that.
Where's silver? I think I think that might be one here. cuz literally the Fed will be buying the short end these [ __ ] but then again shy might be limited a little bit and then watch Bitcoin too cuz Bitcoin they are it is reading the end of liquidity but yeah I don't know Bitcoin is going to depend on how dovish Powell is, but that that could be coiling up there.
You might have a different opportunity. All you got to do is be on the lookout that Powell doesn't [ __ ] this up. Go. Does anybody see January rate cut odds? I don't think they moved it. This is I hate to be this guy, but I don't want to say Goldilocks, but in a weird way, they just came in still. They just gave you a pause without it [ __ ] sounding bad.
Does that make sense? Cuz I don't think January rate cut odds moved off of this. So, they found a way to pause it, tell you in the timing and the extent. That's the hawkish part. But then they found a way to [ __ ] the the fear is dissipating, but it's only off of two people. That's a crazy part. And the Fed's not as uh it's two people.
The Fed is not in a mutiny. That's very positive for the next Fed chair. I think that gives the Fed more credibility. Everybody wants to say that Kevin Hassid la the president no credibility. No, this I I honestly this gives me credibility in the Fed's eyes. They're I think they're all behaving. Does that make sense?
Like they're behaving a little better. I don't think they're they're misbehaving. We don't want any plays in there. Like I saying, I'll give you guys some ideas. I already gave you one, but please don't post any strike prices. You don't need to influence your brother. But like I'm think it's dovish, you guys.
This is for all of you. I don't think you need to uh I don't think you need to uh to really fight it that hard. And again, Powell will be there. There'll be a put. Give it. Remember, 15 minutes at a time. You're about four minutes shy. But uh yeah, just watch out if Powell starts to uh to kind of hit with anything.
That's all you really got to watch out for. Powell could break this down in one second if he again. This is what happened last time. He started saying everybody was feeling dovish. That's exactly what happened last time. I remember it read very well. It read dovish and then [ __ ] came in and then he said it's not a foregone conclusion.
So if he says the same thing about inflation, he might say it's not a it's not a foregone conclusion about rates or whatever. But the real bullish part is the Treasury buying and then the dot plot. Like I was telling you, this isn't a big dispersement. You're not This isn't that crazy. Even if you took out the outliers, everything is in check right now.
Like I'm saying, the Fed members seem a little bit more well- behaved. I I was expecting to see a lot more TDS on the Fed members. Uh and like Yeah, it's not. This isn't I'm actually surprised again in the statement they they had a couple of opportunities. Uh but they the only changes they made were a little bit more dovish than not.
Yeah. But then you do have a pause on the table, but we just don't know. Which again I would say leans a little bit more dovish. Maybe it was the data. I think John Williams again John Williams he has to be the other guy. like this has to be the John this has to be John Williams and that's [ __ ] but previously he was one of these because you didn't nobody went higher nobody wanted to act out of pocket one person went higher but then one person went lower and then one person went really low so that's it's that's three three people three four people it's three dots that gave this and then everything else didn't change as much either and then again they're buying which that you could view as bad remember if central banks panic Uh, usually the market stops panicking, but they're going to start buying uh, treasuries.
Mhm. I'd look at the banks. I think that's a good play. Depending on how it plays, that's it. All you got to the risk right now is uh, and then watch IWM, too. Remember, that's at the breakout zone. But all you got to watch out for is that Powell doesn't [ __ ] it up. So, I'll be here. I'll be listening.
Uh, if I start screaming randomly, you'll know Powell [ __ ] something up. But that's it. As long as Powell does not beat you down like last time, I think uh it's a green light. Again, the move uh we just got to get out of Chop City and hit the new high. But yeah, that I don't know. I'm kind of suspicious.
I'm surpris that that was no nowhere near the [ __ ] hawkishness. The only hawkishness is that you're not going to get a cut in January. And I think the market could deal with that. I'm actually impressed that the Fed didn't [ __ ] decide to act like a bunch of children. So, it is what it is. Yeah, bro.
One guy went higher or gal. One, two, three, four, five, six. No, you had two. So, two more people went lower or that or they could have went higher. How many we had? Three. One, two, three, four, five. Four. But then one person went a little higher. No, it's legit, dude. Very weird. It just we got talked into more hawkishness.
That wasn't that hawkish. Where's TLT? Yeah. Uh-oh. See, that's what you don't want. You don't want the bond. So, think about it. What are the bond vigilantes going to do? If now it doesn't come in that hawkish, this is where it could get bad. And people have talked about this theory because essentially, if the bond vigilantes are saying this is a mistake, they're going to [ __ ] wreck the bonds.
And then you're going to get a fat curve steepener because now the Fed is literally buying the short end as they're announcing. And that's starting in two days, three days. So very fascinating in that sense, but it is uh No, it's not I'm I'm still kind of shocked by this. It wasn't that bad at all. So yeah, other than that though, if it bonds, if TLT flushes too hard, you're going to that's going to be people kind of instead of a Fed mutiny, it's going to try to be a bond mutiny, which again, I I take a bond mutiny over a Fed mutiny.
any day cuz again we were expecting five descents at some point. You could have people were would have probably expected four. Do you guys not get that? So think about it. We thought we were going to be having a bunch of disagreement coming into this. And meanw all of them that's it. The same people.
[ __ ] was a given for a descent. I think Goulsby descented last time or was it and then Bowman. Oh, Bowman's probably your [ __ ] Bowman's probably your X factor to be honest cuz remember Bowen descented as well too. Goulby and Schmid. So remember, wasn't Schmid or No, that was Hammock. Let's see what Schmid said last time.
I'm gonna get you his recent comments. Uh yeah, your risk is the yen carry trade now for December 19th. But if nothing gets in the way of that, Fed's going to be buying shortterm, then yeah, you might be able to dodge the bullet. Of course, the guy who didn't have any comments in November. So yeah, Schmid had zero comment.
Who the [ __ ] is Schmid? All right. So, it's a small reaction. I think everybody is still aware of powpow again. [ __ ] could bat it down at any any given moment. That's the from last time. Watching both sides of the mound says downside employment risks have increased. Initial tea buying to stay elevated for a few months.
Future reserve management will be significantly reduced. Was he missing because of family death? That sounds familiar. I'm going to see if you could find a Fed Schmid comment because that's again that's the guy that that kind of came out of nowhere. But like the Bowman Bowman Waller again we we could assume a lot from some of the other comments.
Again, we knew Hammock would have been uh a little bit more bearish, but think about it. You know, they pulled that parachute. Oh, Dolly, too. I forgot. Remember Dolly kind of pivoted as well. But yeah, there's no M. Again, we were 10 20 minutes ago. We were talking about potentially uh potentially having u five descents, but you got nowhere.
This is too clean. It's It's actually very orderly considering how how they all freaked out not too long ago. All right. Well, we got 12 more minutes till powpow. Crazy, dude. The lowest dot is [ __ ] but these other people it it these are this is where the action really happened though cuz like I'm telling you compared to the last time I took that one off.
But it nobody went higher and then you pretty it was all these guys at like 37 pretty much where we should have ended up. They're the those are the ones that all changed but only one of them went higher. aka what you could assume is that more people on the Fed were swayed to lowering rates in the last month or so than they were to to getting worried about inflation.
Does that make sense? Cuz again, right before Powell and during Powell, people were freaking out. You didn't have the data. There was the government shutdown. They were all getting worried about it. Inflation, inflation. In a weird way, this is the Fed kind of acknowledging or at least giving the correct nod that, you know, you haven't seen inflationary pressures come up.
So, but there's still again, they still gave a option. There's still optionality. They have they said the timing of in the timing of future events, that's how they're going to be able to uh to combat against this. So, they're they're ready for it. That mean January, this is where it's going to get hawkish right now.
I'll tell you, is if he starts talking about [ __ ] June, if he's So, again, think about it. If we're now like, okay, it's dovish. Yeah, they're they're they're leaning more towards cuts. The employment obviously they're responding to that. Yeah, but then Powell starts hinting at like June for the for it to restart.
That's where it's going to get a little bit uh that's where I think people might get disappointed. So if they go because now it seems like we got good things but or doubbish but then if they start hinting at a longer pause that with less guidance on there that's going to be tricky but like I'm saying PAL is going to be gone soon.
The I think the real W in all of this is the Fed is not as dispersed as you thought which again a lot of people were getting worried about it. Someone's going to ask about it too. They got a pre-written drama question already. But yeah, that's not uh you you got things kind of falling in line with that.
So, we'll see where it leads us, my friends. We will see where it leads us. Do I stream crypto trades? No, I stream long-term. Long-term. Mhm. But if I ever played like a ETF uh on the locked in, well, but I don't have any Bitcoin place for now. I would look at it though right now, but I do think uh there's another play related to dollar and rates that could be a little bit better.
And then Oh, duh. Hold on. Let me see if I can find this one. The spreads are still wide, these [ __ ] They will fil me. [snorts] his ass is gone in May. why bond market would sell off in protest. It's what's been happening all year. Uh really, we talked about this prior too. It's just the idea that if you know if the bond market thinks the Fed is being irresponsible, if they're like, "Oh, you shouldn't be cutting right now.
You shouldn't be cutting right now." And then, you know, cuz what's going to happen if you cut? If you cut too much too early, it's not necessary. They're going to be worried about inflation. So that's the whole idea here where now it came in so dovish and if it stays dovish after the press conference they're going to try exactly they're going to try to price in a policy error and they're going to say no you should have held it that's going to be too loose baba boo even if you're worried about unemployment they're going to start you know saying it's sparking the inflation rise Man, I know they've been getting clapped.
So, I got one gift for you. So, I gave you one of those last time right ahead of Powo. It was on the whole long duration idea. And for everybody else, if you have been paying attention, long duration, that's the I I took a small long duration play for now. Uh but again, we need Powell to confirm or deny uh what's going on here because again, all it takes is if it's a long wait, if he adds more confusion to it, then you just as quickly, this is what happened last time.
It could easily quickly chill out and do its thing. All right, man. Five minutes. Five minutes and it begins. I have a couple of feeds, so we'll get the fastest one. Uh, even with a delay, you guys should be good. Uh, and then again, I mean, all that matters is the damn commentary right now. You just need to know.
I'll start yelling and [ __ ] Uh, if Powell does kind of flip the script, that's going to be the key. That's it. If Powell confirms it, I think you're going to have an opportunity. You could throw anything at the [ __ ] wall. Uh but then again, if it same thing to the downside, too, though. If Powell comes in swinging, if he drops stuff that we're not really ready for, this, you know, all this doubishness is going to go out the window and then you're going to remember, Wall Street's going to chew on this and then digest it.
So, you got to watch out for that. Is it crashing the web? You guys said it's [ __ ] with Twitter. No way. Again, I think it's surprising people. We were all just ready for the I was I thought it was going to be more hawkish. I thought they were Again, they were very childlike last time. Remember Powell?
I feel like Powell got disrespected. He was being all of a sudden he destroyed the rally for no reason. Everybody started interpreting it. You had the Fed chair, all the Fed governors all over the damn place. Like, it didn't [ __ ] make any sense. So yeah, it's kind of nuts, but we'll find out. But that's why I'm saying if he does it again, that's just the risk of it all.
But then the longer Wall Street sits on this, I mean, you should know how they're most people are going to spin it. But yeah, they didn't change inflation. They did not change the cuts or it's all favorable. It's still three, but that was uh we were ready for a lot worse. Everybody was. That's what I'm saying though.
Last time we were not ready for it. Last time everybody was ready for the opposite. Everybody was ready to rally. They didn't. They thought, "Oh, Powell, done deal." But yeah, that's it. US judge dismisses admin bid to dismiss the challenge over 4 billion highspeed rail funding withdrawal. Nice. Uh Hilton and travel.
What is this? All right. Well, you're getting back literally as Powell's about to come on here. You are getting right back to the level. So nothing is essentially you're about to be unchanged since the release came out. Let me see. There's a couple that have it, but they look delayed. We got one. All right, so get ready.
I still I think this one's going to lag. So again, usually the Fed one is the fastest problems at X. Yeah, I think Twitter's freaking out. But yeah, just get ready for it. Bonds are Okay, bonds are dying. So think about it with what we're saying there. If they want to throw a little tantrum, it's cuz they again I think the bond market had more dissents than the whole [ __ ] Fed.
Let's see. Does he believe in Christmas or not? All right, 20 seconds. The Fed's not live yet. They might begin it, but like I'm saying, I got one live feed and then we're going to see. The Fed usually puts on their own delay as of late. That's been a new feature if you didn't know. All right, I got every feed's up now.
Which one? Yep, the Fed is live. Okay. This is the fastest one. So, look, even with your delay, the other feeds don't have this yet. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals . Although important federal government data for the past couple of months have yet to be released.
Available public and private sector data suggests that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed as much since our meeting in October. Changed as much. Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling and inflation remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals, in light of the balance of risks to decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point.
As a separate matter, we also decided to initiate purchases of shorterterm Treasury securities solely for the purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time, thus supporting effective control of our policy rate. I will have more to say about monetary policy and its implementation after briefly reviewing economic developments.
Although some key government data have yet to be released, available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Consoleid and has continued to expand. In contrast, activity in the housing sector remains weak. The temporary shutdown of the federal government has likely weighed on economic activity in the current quarter, but these effects should be mostly offset by higher growth next quarter, reflecting the reopening.
In our summary of economic projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 1.7% this year and 2.3% next year, somewhat stronger than projected in September. Yeah. So I think the economy is going to do better in the labor market. Although official employment data for October and November are delayed.
If he says it's weaker suggest that both layoffs and hiring remain low. If he highlight focus on households perceptions of job availability and firms posession perceptions of hiring difficulty continue to decline. The official report on the labor market for September the most recent release showed that the unemployment rate continued to edge up reaching 4.4%.
4% and that job gains had slowed significantly since earlier in the year. A good part of the slowing likely . In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen in recent months. Mhm. In our SCP, the median projection of the still is 4.5%. Again, this is most he's just explaining the dot plot now.
We got to wait till the questions, but his attitude has eased significantly from highs in mid 2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2% longer run goal. Very little data on inflation have been released since our meeting in October. Total PCE prices rose 2.8% 8% over the 12 months ending in September and also rose 2.8%.
These readings are higher than earlier in the year as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects of tariffs. In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing for services. declined from their peaks earlier in the year . Most [clears throa. The median projection in the SP for total PCE inflation is 2.9% this year and 2.4% next year, a bit lower than the median projection in September.
Thereafter, the median falls to 2%. . This is all from the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to three and a half and 3/4%. In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risk risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation.
There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals. Okay, this is going to be the bar. A reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short-lived. There it is. Effectively a one-time shift in the price level.
Yeah, if that down time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. But with downside risks to employment having risen in recent months, the balance of risks has shifted. Our framework calls for us to take a balanced approach in promoting both sides of our dual mandate.
Accordingly, we judged it appropriate at this meeting to lower our policy rate by a quarter percentage point. With today's decision, we have lowered our policy rate 3/4 of a percentage point over our last three years. Broadcom into it. This further normalization of our policy stance should help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2% once the effects of tariffs have passed through.
The adjustments to our policy stance since September bring plausible estimates of neutral and leave us well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments. I mean you might say they might have to wait for the inflation to hit the evolving outlook before they move again. In our summary of economic projections, please FOMC participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path of the federal funds rate under what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario for the economy.
The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.4% at the end of 2026 and 3.1% at the end of 2027, unchanged from September. As is always the case, these individual forecasts are subject to uncertainty and they're not a committee plan or decision. Monetary policy is not on a preset course and we will make our decisions on a meeting by meeting basis.
That gives life for January related to the implementation. sounds like he wants to wait to see inflation that these issues are separate from but that last comment was good implications for the stance of monetary policy in light of the continued tightening in money market interest rates relative to going to be the bond program
and other indicators of reserve market conditions the committee judged that reserve balances have declined to ample levels accordingly at today's meeting the committee decided to initiate purchases of shorterterm Treasury securities mainly Treasury bills for the sole purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time.
Such increases in our securities holdings ensure that the federal funds rate remains within its target range and are necessary because the growth of the economy leads to rising demand over time for our liabilities, including currency and reserves. As detailed in a statement released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reserve management purchases will amount to $40 billion in the first month and may remain elevated for a few months to alleviate expected near-term pressures in money markets.
Thereafter, we expect the size of reser reserve management purchases to decline, though the actual pace will depend on market conditions. In our [clears throat] implementation framework, an ample supply of reserves means that the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates are primarily controlled by the setting of our administered rates rather than day-to-day discretionary interventions in money markets.
In this regime, standing repurchase agreement or repo operations are a critical tool to ensure that the federal funds rate remains within its target range even on days of elevated pressures in money markets. Consistent with this view, the committee eliminated the aggregate limit on standing repo operations.
These operations are intended to support monetary policy implementation and smooth market functioning and should be used when economically sensible. To conclude, the Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy, aximum employment, bringing our inflation sustainably down to our 2% goal, nchored.
. We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. At the Fed, we will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you and I look forward to questions. Uh thank you Howard Schneider with Reuters.
Uh just first turning to the statement the just to be clear we're on the same page here. The insertion of the phrase uh considering the extended timing of additional adjustments. Does that indicate that the Fed is now on hold until there's some clearer signal from ready either January, March jobs or the evolution of the economy along the baseline outlook?
So yes, the um the adjustments since September um bring our policy within a broad range of estimates of neutral and as we noted in our statement today, we are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of addition. Watch the January odds outlook. They're pausing after this. Uh that new language points out that we'll carefully evaluate that incoming data.
Uh and also I would note that having reduced our policy rate by 75 basis points since September and 175 basis points since last September, the Fed funds rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value and we are well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves. Follow up on the outlook there.
It would have been more hawkish if he said it's not growth, but you're easing inflation and no cut in January for sure. probably this seems like a pretty optimistic outlook uh for next year. Um what's given rise to that? Is this an early bet on AI? Is there some sense of uh improve improving productivity out there?
What's what's driving that? So a number of things are driving uh what's happening in the forecast? And I I would say if you if you look broadly at outside forecasts, you do see a pickup in growth in many of those now too. So it is um it's partly that consumer spending has held up. it's been resilient and it it to another degree it is it is that uh AI spending on data centers and related to AI has been holding up business investment.
So overall um the the baseline expectation for next year is at least at at the Fed and I think with with outside forecasters too is a pick up in growth from today's relatively low level of level of 1.7%. I mentioned that the SEP median is 1.7 for this year growth and 2.3 for next year. You actually some of that is due to the uh the shutdown.
So you can take 210 out of 2026 and put it in 2025. So it would really be 1.9 and 2.1. But overall yes um you know you know for a few reasons fiscal policy is going to be supportive and as I mentioned AI spending will continue the consumer continues to spend. So it it looks like uh the baseline would be solid growth next year.
Steve, yeah, just pause. That's why you sold off. Um the uh pause no clear guidance on the future rate cuts in terms of then again he just acknowledged that that was following up on what Howard was asking. Um, is the riskmanagement phase of rate cuts over here? And uh um have you taken out sufficient uh insurance I guess against potential weakness in terms of the data we might get next week when it comes to employment?
So we're going to get a great deal of data between now and the and the January meeting and I'm sure we'll talk more about that and that will the data that we get are going to factor into our thinking. But yes, we have uh if if you go back uh we held our policy rate at you know 5.4% for more than a year because inflation was high very high and unemployment when and the labor market was was really solid at that point.
So what happened is over last summer of of of of 24 um inflation came down and the labor market began to show real signs of weakness. And so we we decided as our framework tells us to do that uh when the when the risks to the two goals become more equal, you should move from uh a stance that favors really dealing with one of them, in that case inflation, to a more balanced, more neutral setting.
And so we we we did that. We did some cutting and then we we paused for a while to work our way through uh what was happening in the middle of the year. And then we resumed cuts in in September. We've cut now three. We now cut a total of 175 basis points. And as I mentioned, you know, we feel like uh where we're positioned now puts we're well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves from here.
If I could just follow up on the SCP, um you have a whole lot of big increase in the growth numbers, but not a big decline in the unemployment numbers. And is that an AI factor in there? What is going on in terms of the dynamic of you get more growth, but you don't get a whole lot of decline unemployment?
Steve, he's just setting. So it it is the implication is obviously higher productivity. Um and u some of that may be AI. It just also I think u productivity has just been almost structurally higher for several years now. So if you start thinking of it as 2% per year you can sustain higher growth without more without more job creation.
Uh of course higher productivity incomes to rise over a good thing but that may be but that's certainly the implication. Kobe, thank you. Colobby Smith with the New York Times. Um, today's decision was clearly very divided. It wasn't just the two official descents against the cut, but there were also soft descents from four uh others.
And I'm just wondering if um this reluctance from several people to support recent reductions suggests that there is a much higher bar for cuts in the near term. What exactly does the committee need to see if he shoots this down right now? um to support a January reduction. Sure. So um let me just say as I mentioned u and as I've mentioned here before situation is is that our two goals are a bit in tension.
Right. So um interestingly everyone around the table at the FOMC agrees that [clears throat] inflation is too high and that we want it to come down and agrees that the labor market has softened and that there's further risk. Everyone agrees on that. where the where the difference is is how do you weight those risks and what does your forecast look like and and and where do ultimately ultim where do you think the bigger risk is and and you know it's very unusual to have uh persistent tension between the two parts of the mandate and when you do this is what you see and I think it's actually uh what you would expect to see and we do see it meanwhile the discussions we have are as good as any we've had in my 14 years at the Fed they're very thoughtful respectful And you just have people who have strong views and you know we we come together and and we reach we reach u you know a place where we can make a decision.
We made a decision today. We had you know nine out of 12 supported it. So fairly broad support. Um but it's not like the nor normal situation where everyone agrees on the direction and what and what to do. It's more it's more spread out and I think that's only inherent in the situation in terms of what it would take.
You know, we all have an outlook in terms of what's going to come, but I think ultimately having cut 75 and six of the 75 basis points will only begin to be coming in. As I've said before a couple times, we're well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves. We'll just have to see and we will get, as you know, quite a bit of data.
I should mention on the data, as long as I'm talking about it, that um it's a soft dove on that one. need to be careful in assessing particularly the the household uh survey data. uh there there are very technical uh reasons about the way he's not taking January off the table in some of these measures but he's not confirming it and in uh in labor in the labor market.
Uh so that the the data may be distorted and not just not just sort of more volatile but distorted and and that's it's uh and that's really because data was not collected in October and half of November. So, we're going to get data, but we're going to have to look at it carefully and with a somewhat skeptical eye by the time of the January meeting.
Notwithstanding that, we will have a lot of the December data by the time of the January meeting. So, we expect to see a lot more, but I'm just saying that the what we get for, for example, CPI or for the uh for the um uh uh household survey. Uh we're going to we're going to look we're going to look at that really carefully and understand that it may be distorted by very technical factors.
Um and just just um one more question on descents. Um I mean you talk about in a very positive way just given the complicated nature of the situation we're in economically, but is there any point in which those descents become counterproductive either to you know the Fed's communication and the messaging around the policy path forward?
I wouldn't I don't feel that we're at that point at all. I don't I I would say again these are these are good, thoughtful, respectful discussions and you hear people say and you'll hear you hear many many outside analysts say the same thing. I could make a case for either for either side. I mean I I could make that case.
It's it's a close call. we have to make decisions and uh we you know we always hope that the data will will give us a clear read but in this situation you you have you have competing if you look to if you look through the SCP you'll see that a very large number of participants agree that risks are to the upside for unemployment and to the upside for inflation.
So what do you do? You've got one tool. You can't do two things at once. So at what pace do you move? how how what what size moves do you make and that kind of thing and what what's the timing of them. It's it's very it's a very challenging situation. Uh, I think we're in a good place to, as I mentioned, to wait and see how the economy evolves.
Nick Tim, he hasn't, bro, he hasn't popped off yet. Like I said, that Nick Timmeros or the wall January is kind of live. Chair Pal, there's been some discussion recently of the 1990s. In the 1990s, the committee did two discrete sequences of three quarter point cuts. One in 199596 and one in 1998. And after both of those, the next move in rates was up, not down.
With policy now closer to neutral, is it a foregone conclusion that the next move in rates is down or should we think of policy risks as genuinely two-sided from here? So, I don't think that you just asked if you were going to raise rates. A a rate hike is anybody's base as the next is anybody's base at this point.
And I'm not hearing that. What you what you see is just TRYING TO WHAT THE [ __ ] WE SHOULD stop here and and that we're at the right place and just wait. Some people feel like we should cut once or more this year and next year. But the but when people are writing down their estimates of policy worst case you get two cuts is either holding here or cutting a little or cutting.
He literally tried to get him to I don't see the base case as involving that. some of course you know a bro's nice today he's a dove is is not a big data set but I you're you are right about those two uh three cut times in in the '90s you're correct on history but we're not doing that gradually for the better part of two years and indeed the statement today no longer describes the unemployment rate as remaining low what gives you confidence it won't continue rising in 2026 especially when housing and other rate sensitive sectors still appear to be feeling restrictive policy from the uh notwithstanding the 150 basis points and cuts prior to today.
So the the I think the idea is that with with now having cut 755 basis points more now and having policy you know I'd call it in a broad range of of plausible estimates of neutral that that will be a place which will enable the labor market to stabilize or to only tick up one or two more tents but we won't see uh you know any kind of a sharper downturn which we haven't seen any ev evidence of at all.
At the same time, uh, policy is still in a place where it's not accommodative and and we feel like we feel like we have made progress this year in non-tariff related inflation and it as tariffs come through, as they flow through, that'll show through next year. But, as I said, we're we're well past well placed to to wait and see how that turns out.
That is our expectation. But, you know, we're going to start to see the data and it'll tell us whether we were right or not. Yeah, this is towel is nice today, bro. The dovish everything is confirmed confirming now. A lot of people interpreted your comments at the October meeting that you know when there's a foggy situation, we slow down to mean that, you know, there won't be a cut now, there'd be a cut in January instead.
So it'd be good to get a sense of why did the committee decide to move today rather than to move in January instead. Thank you. Right. So in October I said um that there was no certainty of moving and that was that was indeed correct. I said it's possible you could think about it that way. I was careful to say
other people could look at it differently. So why did we move today? You know I would say point to a couple things. First of all, gradual cooling in the labor market has continued. Unemployment is now up 3/10en from June through September. Payroll jobs uh averaging 40,000 per month since April. We think there's an overstatement in in these numbers by about 60,000.
So that would be negative 20,000 per month. Um and also just to point out one other thing, surveys of households and businesses both showed declining supply and demand for workers. So, I think you can say that the labor market has um uh continued to cool gradually, maybe just a touch more gradually than we thought.
Um Okay. Yeah. You know, in terms he just said the labor, it's the labor market. They're all giving into it. It's come in a touch lower, but he's not panicking. He doesn't want you to panic and he's bullish everything's confirmed. What's happening here is inflation coming down nice and [ __ ] randomly.
that's offset by increases in in in goods and that goods inflation is entirely in sectors where there are tariffs. So that does build on the story and so far it's only a story that this is that that the goods inflation which is really the source of the excess at this point that that most more than half the source of the excess inflation is goods is tariffs and you've got to say then so what do we expect from tariffs um and it's I would say that is to some extent down to looking for broader economic uh you know uh heat you know do we see a hot economy Do we see constraints?
Do we see what it was going on with wages? You saw the ECI report today. It doesn't feel like a hot economy that wants to generate, you know, Philips curve kind of inflation. So, we look at all those things um and we say that this was a decision to make. Obviously, right decision. I mean, honestly, this is he's going they're going back to reality.
That was the judgment that that we made and that's the action we took. Just on the reserves [clears throat] point, how concerned he's not talking about January as much, but he just told you that they're not really seeing real concern. So what what really happened is so again they were more worried about unemployment.
That's the bullish part because you just got to slow down on what to expect moving forward. But at least it seems like they're getting rid of this facility. Be scared of inflation [ __ ] because of tariffs. He just gave you a pretty good explanation of it. In September, uh the federal funds rate started to tick up within the range, right?
And it ticked up almost all the way to uh interest on reserve balances. There's nothing wrong with that. What that's telling you is that we're actually in reserves in an ample reserves regime. So, you know, we we knew this done the Nvidia investment. It did come. It came a little quicker than expected, but we were absolutely there to take the actions that we said we would take.
So, and we those actions are today. So, you know, we we announced that we're resuming reserve management purchases. That is completely separate from monetary policy. It's just we need to keep an ample supply of reserves out there. Why so big? The answer to that is uh you know, if you look ahead, you'll see that that April 15th is coming up and our our framework is such that we want to have ample reserves even at times when reserves are at a low level temporarily.
So, that's what happens on tax day. Mhm. People pay a lot of money to the government. Reserves drop sharply and temporarily. So this seasonal buildup that we'll see in we didn't have enough liquidity for tax was going to happen because April 15th is April 15th. There's also a secular ongoing growth of the balance sheet.
We have to keep reserves call it constant as a as it relates to the banking system or to the whole whole economy. And that alone calls for us to increase about 2025 billion dollars per month. So that's a small part that that's going on. It's also happening in the context of a temporary few month uh front loading to get to get reserves high enough to get through the you know the tax period in in in midappril.
So that's what's happening there. Andrew. Um thanks Mr. Chairman. [clears throat] Um uh this is the last post FOMC press conference uh before an important Supreme Court uh hearing next month. Can you talk about how you're hoping the Supreme Court will rule and uh I'm just curious why the Fed's been so reticent on such a pivotal matter.
It's not something I I want to address here, Andrew. Um, you know, we're not uh we're not legal commentators before the courts and uh we think our we we don't think that we help matters by trying to engage as a as a as a as a public discussion of that. I'll give you a mulligan though. Thanks. I don't know if that means I get three questions, but uh
just one just one more. I I guess I wanted to come back to the the 1990s question and and like do you see that as a useful model for thinking about uh [clears throat] what is happening in the economy right now? I don't think it rises to that level. So I did think that in in 200 was it 19 where we cut three times.
But you know this is such a unique situation. We this is it's not um uh it's not the 1970s let's put it that way. But we do have tension between our two goals. And so that's that's again the other uh what's it called? That Intel headline. It's coming up again too. We haven't had that. So I'm assuming Intel hasn't done the Nvidia deal says that when that's the case that we try to, you know, take a balanced approach to to the two things and we look at how far they are and how long it would take to get them back each of them back to the goal.
That's a very subjective analysis really, but it just tells you you've got to and I think ultimately what it says is when they're broadly equally threatened or equally at risk, you should be kind of neutral because if you're if you're either accommodative or or or tight, you're favoring one or the other goal.
And so we've been trying to we've been sort of moving in the direction of neutral. Now we're in the range of neutral. We're in the high end of of the range of neutral, I would say. And that's what we're doing now. It it so happened that we we've cut three times that you know we have we haven't made any decision about January, but as as I've said, we think we're well positioned to
he's not shooting January down this [ __ ] Last time you knew he was going to cut in December. He's like it's not a foregone conclusion and he's like January might happen with Fox Business. I wanted to ask you um the inflation expectations uh has has come down in your SCP report. Um, do you see the tariff price increases as passing through in the next 3 months?
Is it a six-month process that we're looking for that to end? And then because of that, is jobs the threat to the economy? [cough] So, with with tariff inflation, you know, it takes there's the announcement of a tariff and then there's, you know, they start to take effect and then it takes some months.
Goods may have to be shipped from other parts of the, you know, it may take, you know, quite a while for an individual tariff to take its full effect. But once it's had that effect, then the question is, isn't that just a one-time price increase? So, we've actually we actually look at it all of the announcements and and and and what you get from all that you see sort of a for each one of them, there's a time period and then then it's fully in.
So, if there are no new tariff announcements and we don't know that, but let's assume there are no major new tariff announcements, inflation from goods uh should peak in the first quarter or so, right? Roughly, you know, we haven't been able to predict this with any precision. No one is but call it the first quarter or or so of next year should be the peak and from here it should be
it shouldn't be big it should be a couple tenths or or even less than that we don't really have precision on this but and after that again so they're forecast on the tariff inflation is getting lower take small but they don't know he's giving himself the back out still um then you should start to see that coming down in the back half of
again that's more in line with reality and now again end of first quarter that's already been a time frame we've been um a new Fed chairman. [snorts] Does that hinder your current job right now or change your thinking at all? No. Yeah, cuz he's acting normal now. This is so odd. No mulligans for it.
Michael Michael McKe from Bloomberg radio and television. Uh tenure rates have are 50 basis points higher than when you started cutting back in September of 2024 and the yield curve basically has been steepening. Uh why do you think that continuing to cut now, especially in the absence of data, is going to bring down the yield on the thing that will move the economy the most?
So we're looking at the real economy and focusing on that. And you have you've got when the when the long bonds move around, you've got to look at why they're moving around. If you look at inflation compensation, it's very that's one part of it is is inflation compensation break evens. And you know they're at very comfortable levels.
They're at levels consistent past the once you get out past the very short term now. U break evens are at a you know at at quite levels that are quite consistent with 2% inflation over time. So there's nothing happening with rates going up out there that suggests concern about inflation in the long term or anything like that.
I mean I look I look at these things pretty regularly. Same thing with surveys. surveys are all saying that uh the public understands our commitment to 2% and and expects us to get back there. So, so why why are rates going up? It has to be something else. It must be, you know, an expectation of higher growth or something like that.
And that's that's a lot of what's been going on. I mean, you saw a big move, you know, toward the end of last year, which was not to do with us. It was to do with other developments. Well, you just mentioned that I don't I think the yields will come down if you start telling the truth about tariffs% and Americans overwhelmingly are citing high prices, inflation as their number one concern.
Can you explain to them why you're prioritizing uh the labor market which seems relatively stable to most people instead of their number one concern inflation? So we um as you know we have a network of contacts in the US economy which is really unmatched if you go through the 12 reserve banks. Uh so we hear loud and clear how people are experiencing um really costs.
It's really it's really high costs and a lot of that is not the current rate of inflation. A lot of that is just embedded higher cost due to higher inflation in 2022 and 23. Uh so that's what's going on. And so the best thing we can do is restore inflation to to to its 2% goal. And our policy is is intended to do that.
But also have a strong economy where real wages are going up, where people are getting jobs and and earning money and and uh we're going to need to have some years where real compensation is higher. You know, it's positive, significantly positive. So wages, nominal wages are higher than inflation for people to start feeling good about affordability, the affordability issue.
And you know, so we're we're working hard on that. We want to we're trying to keep inflation under control, but also support the labor market and strong wages so that people are earning enough money and and feeling economically healthy again. Victoria, um, hi Victoria with Go. Uh, just to follow up on that, I mean this is now the third time that you've cut this year and inflation is around 3%.
So is the message that you're sort of trying to send with that that you're okay with where inflation is for now as long as people understand that at some point you still want to get back to 2% because inflation is relatively stable where it is. Everyone should understand and the surveys show that they do that we're committed to 2% inflation and we will deliver 2% inflation.
But it's a complicated, unusual, difficult situation where the labor market is also under pressure where job creation may actually be negative. Now supply of workers has also gone way down. So the unemployment rate hasn't moved that much. But um you know it's it's a labor market that that seems to have significant downside risks.
People care a lot about that. That's their jobs. That's their ability if they get laid off or if they're entering the labor force to find work. So that's that's really important to people. Um the story with inflation and uh you know we're well aware that this is a story at this point is that if you get away from tariffs inflation is in the low twos right so it's I developed my own news that that's causing the most of the inflation overshoot and we do think of those as likely to in the current situation as likely to be a one-time you know one-time price increase.
Our job is to make sure that it is and we will do that job. But right now, you've got this balance and there risks to both sides. There's no risk-free path. If we were if we, you know, if it was just inflation and the labor market was just really strong and then we rates would be higher as they were for more than a year.
You know, we didn't have to worry about inflation. Sorry about the about the labor market. Uh because the labor market unemployment was very low if you remember when inflation was very high. Uh there was a labor shortage. So we could focus entirely on listen to this guy, bro. Now it's different. We actually have risks to both.
This guy sound like he voted for Trump all of a sudden for people. They also care about their jobs. They do care about affordability. Caring about the American people all of a sudden is both to support economic boogeyman of you know um make sure that when tariff inflation goes down and disappears inflation lands around 2%.
Elizabeth [clears throat] Thanks so much, Elizabeth Scholsey with ABC News. Just to follow up, you keep talking about job growth being negative. Why do you think job growth is so much worse than some of the official data? Why do you think job growth is to follow up on your comments about Gold and Silver taking off a little bit differently and a couple of other names, too?
Oh, well, we just we know. Yeah, Dovish everything and Dovish Powell. He's being nice all of a sudden. Controversial. There's a it's very difficult to to estimate job growth in real time. They don't count everybody. They have a survey and there's been something of a systematic overcount. And so we we expected and they correct it twice a year.
So the last time they corrected it, we thought the correction would be 8 or 900,000. I won't get the numbers exactly right. And that was that was exactly what happened. So we think that that has persisted. And uh so there's there's an overcount in the payroll job numbers. we think continuing and it will be corrected.
I don't have the exact month in my head right now, but and that's just I don't again it's going to be a correction and not as many people employed and we think it's about 60,000 a month. So 40,000 jobs could be negative 20 and you know that could be wrong by 10 or 20 in either direction. In any case,
so that's what's supporting their whole idea of a weaker labor market. That's why he's more worried about it in a way that's job that's demand. Labor supply has also come down quite sharply. So, you know, if you had had a world where there just there's just no growth in workers and you really don't need a lot of jobs to have a to have full employment, some people argue that's what we're looking at.
But I think a world where job creation is negative. I just think we need to watch that situation very carefully and be in a position. Yeah. Trump is having comments right now, you know, pushing down on jobs. Apple CEO said it's hard to find employees major American employers like Amazon site AI and job cuts.
How much right now are you factoring in AI into the current weakness in the job market? So it it's probably part of the story. It's not it's not a big part of the story yet. and we don't know whether it will be, but um you know, for example, if you look at you can't miss the big announcements of layoffs and and also companies uh saying that they're they're not going to hire anybody for a long time.
Yeah. If you come here every day, I mean, you'll hear the call outs faster than anywhere in the world. At the same time, um people are not filing for unemployment insurance and uh I got some old videos on it. You want to go back extremely low. If there were big numbers of layoffs, you you'd expect the the continuing claims to go up and you expect new claims to go up.
It really haven't much. So, it's it's a little bit curious. Longer term though, the question is what are we going to see here? And we Yeah, Bitcoin starting to move now finally. It may be that equal weights leading the way and the Russell technology really sign Dude, he's a [ __ ] dove all of a sudden.
Again, we'll go over it, but you should get the vibe by now. eras you have seen some jobs destroyed and other jobs made. Ultimately what's happened for a couple hundred years is when you get through all that you have higher productivity and you have you have new jobs and there are enough jobs for people.
This is a this may be different. Yeah. Trump is live. There's Qualcomm there. Qualcomm CEO Dell and then he's talking about what happened with Apple. People out of work. What are they going to do? In the past there's always been more work and higher productivity and incomes have risen. What will happen here?
We're going to have to see. But right now is such early days. We don't think we see much uh it's certainly not showing up in in layoffs yet. [clears throat] Thank you chair and Curran Bloom Bloomberg News. Given the breadth of views on the policy committee, why is there such a division of views between the policy what
on the committee division of views between the presidents and the board members? You know, it's it's not so stark is that there there's def there the views are are more varied on each in each group as well. There's some of that, but I would say they're also governors and and uh well, he just told you why he's dovish.
This overounted jobs essentially both sides in both groups. I wouldn't put too much in that labor market. Just a follow up please [clears throat] given your growth upgrade literally what John Williams what would be the economic impact if the Supreme Court is to strike down the tariffs that they're currently hearing please in terms of growth and inflation thank you
I I really don't know it would depend um [clears throat] it would depend on a whole bunch of things we don't know so I can't really help you there Christine [cough and clears throat] thank you chair Christine Romans NBC News I wanted to ask you about how the higher income households are really driving spending [clears throat] right now.
They're backed by home equity and stock market. Silver, gold, Bitcoin, they're in their own little world years of rising prices. It's a non-index related dollar holding some of these families back. How sustainable is this so-called K-shaped economy and and what are the Fed's thoughts on whether that's a risk going forward?
So we do um through our vast network of contacts and just through our observation of what's going on in the economy, we hear about this a lot. Uh if you listen to the earnings reports for consumerf facing companies that tend to deal with low and moderate income people, they'll all say that we're seeing people, you know, tightening their belts, uh you know, changing products that they buy, buying less and that sort of thing.
And so it's clearly a thing. It's also clearly a thing that you know asset values, housing values and and and and high tickers almost maxed out now some more dollars hitting a low. Those ones are moving the hardest right now. So as how sustainable it is, I don't know. Most of the consumption does happen by people who have more means.
Uh I think you know the top the top third accounts for way more than a third of the consumption for example. So um it's a good question how sustainable that is. Uh you know the best we can do is to is to have a you know price stability and a strong labor market. And what we saw um for example what we saw at the end of the you know the very very long um expansion that ended with the outbreak of the pandemic.
We saw that it was 10 years and 8 months or something like that. The longest one in recorded history. In the last two years, most of the job, the largest part of of the wage gains were coming going to people in the bottom cortile, the bottom part of the lower low and moderate income. So, you know, a having a a strong labor market for a long period of time is really really good from a social standpoint.
It it's helping people at the lower income levels and that's what we all want to get back to. But we got to we got to have price stability and we got to have uh you know full employment, maximum employment. And just quickly, you mentioned the housing market remains kind of weak with these rate cuts that we've seen.
Is there a chance we're going to see more affordability in the housing market so more people can maybe enjoy that part of wealth creation? I mean, the average age or median age of a first-time home buyer is now 40 years old. That's the highest on record. Yeah. So the housing market faces um some really significant challenges and uh I don't know that you know a 25 basis point decline in the federal funds rate is going to make much of a difference for people.
Um you know housing supply is low. Um many people have very very low low uh uh low rate mortgages from the pandemic period and they kept refinancing and got the the really low. So it's made expensive to them to move and you know we're we're a ways away from that changing. Also we're just we haven't built enough housing in the country for a long time and so a lot of estimates suggest that we just need more housing of different kinds.
So housing is going to be you know a problem and and you know really the tools to address it are are we can we can raise and lower interest rates but we don't really have the tools to address you know a secular housing shortage a structural housing shortage. Chris. Uh, thanks Chris Rabber, Associated Press.
Um, you mentioned on inflation, uh, services inflation being low, goods inflation looking like maybe it'll [clears throat] peak. Uh, we had the wages report you mentioned today showing uh, moderating wage growth. Where are the inflation risks? It looks like inflation is cooling in your view. At the same time, you have potentially negative hiring.
Why not uh why aren't we hearing more about maybe more cuts in this environment? Well, I think the risk risk inflation is pretty clear to see and that is you know we we see um higher inflation and as I mentioned most of the inflation overtarget is from goods and we think we estimate we expect most of us that that inflation will be a one-time price increase and then come down.
We just came off an experience where um inflation turned out to be much more persistent than anyone had expected. Is that going to happen now? Uh you know that's so that's the risk. The risk is is either that that that tariff inflation just turns out to be more and more persistent maybe because uh uh companies who are now holding back from passing through the tariffs will just keep doing that.
So you'll see you see that. Um I think the other possibility is is less likely and that is just that uh you know the labor market gets tight or the economy gets tight and you see you know just just traditional inflation. And I I don't see that as particularly likely. But uh so I I think you know again uh you know all across the committee uh people see the the picture pretty similarly but see the risks quite differently.
And some people do see the the inflation risk and I I wouldn't dismiss that case. I I don't dismiss that case but you've got to you got to make an assessment and this is the assessment we made. [clears throat] Hi chair pal Neil Irwin with Axios. Um so times today but to be clear do you believe that we're experiencing a positive productivity shock whether from AI or policy factors or whatever?
Uh and how much of that is how much is that driving the higher GDP projection in the SCP? So yeah I mean it uh I never thought I would see a time when we had you know five six years of 2% productivity growth. This is this is higher, you know. This is definitely higher. And it was it was before before it could be attributed to AI.
I think you I I also think if you look at what AI can do and if you use it in your personal life, as I I imagine many of us have, you can see the prospects for productivity. I think it makes people who use it more productive. It may make other people have to find other jobs though. So, so it could have productivity implications while also having, you know, social and labor market implications that we don't have the tools to deal with.
But yes, I think we are seeing we're definitely seeing higher productivity. I don't I think it's a little quick to be saying it's it's generative AI, but um I don't know, you know, the pandemic may have induced people to do more automation and do more things with computers to replace people and that raises productivity, you know, output per hour.
Does that uh does that imply a higher does that imply a higher neutral rate and therefore the policy might be a little easier than it seems? All you know all things equal yes but all things aren't equal. There are many uh many things pushing in in different directions on where the neutral rate would be.
But yes, that that argument does come up. Uh Matt Egan. Thanks Chirpow. Matt Eaggan with CNN. Um, after today, you only have three more meetings at the helm of the Fed. Since becoming Fed Chair, you've seen multiple trade wars, the pandemic, COVID reopening, period of high inflation. I know your term's not up as chair until May, but I'm wondering if you've given any thought to what you want your legacy to be.
My legacy? I My thought [clears throat] is that I think he's doing it now. I really want to turn this job over to whoever replaces me in with the economy in really good shape. That's what I want to do. I want I want inflation to be under control coming. No, not last month, [ __ ] Strong. That's what I want.
And uh all of my efforts are to to get to that place. They have been all along, but ultimately that's that's what and it's, you know, I don't have time to think about the bigger things. I have I have I hope many years ahead to worry about that, but there's enough to do. Relatedly, um [clears throat] have you given any more thought and can you tell us any more about your plans on whether or not you plan to stay on the Fed board of governors even after your term as chair expires?
Again, I'm I'm focused on I'm focused on my remaining time as chair. I haven't got anything new on that to tell you. Go to Mark for the last question. Chairman Mark Hamrich with Bank Rate. Uh even while many price levels remain elevated, the reductions in the federal funds rate means that savings rates or yields to be more precise have peaked while key borrowing rates remain elevated.
And that's as we've discussed here as many Americans struggle with liquidity or emergency savings challenges. Is that just collateral damage or an unintended consequence because your tools are limited in addressing individual or household liquidity constraints, insufficient money in the bank? I I don't know.
I would I I wouldn't um agree that that's collateral damage of our of our um I mean over time over time we do what we do in order to create price stability and maximum employment and those things are hugely valuable to to all the people we serve. um when we raise rates to bring inflation down, you know, that does work by slowing the economy, but we've moved back our rate our policy back down to where it's not it's certainly not strongly restrictive at this point.
I think it's sort of in the range of neutral. Um so that's what we're trying to do and uh I would want people to understand to understand that I think what pe what people are feeling is the effect of higher prices with there was a global wave sort of every large economy in the world certain every every large open economy market based economy in the world had a wave of inflation that looked an awful lot like ours.
We actually came through better than any other country substantially better. We had higher growth. We had better labor market and this is really due to the American economy. We have an extraordinary economy and uh you know people are innovative. They work hard and uh so you know we all of those all of us who work in economics jobs are really fortunate to have to have the US economy.
So thank you very much. Thank you very much. Hey yo. All right. Well I have one for you. But yeah, not a recommendation. We got a couple of good plays during that. Now, you're going to get some tech earnings after the bell today and then tomorrow. But yeah, you guys see it, right? I don't know. You guys like you see it, right?
I did you just see what the f happened, bro? Are you kidding me? Did you guys just understand what happened? That was the first time he told the truth on tariffs. He said, "Yeah, it's not that bad." One time he said, "We're going to make sure that, bro, that was crazy. That was actually crazy." That was actually crazy.
He was much, much different. We were all expecting the hawkishness. He came in as a dove. He had every opportunity. You even still have January on the table. But I don't know if you guys get it. Remember I was telling you all this like deflation [ __ ] but he seemed more worried about the jobs market.
He explained it. He explained why uh they're worried about the jobs market. He was saying that there was like a strategic overcount and then he was saying how that's all going to play out. So yeah, bro. I just again people are going crazy. I was just I I'm telling you, if you have any like dead contracts, you could try to ghetto spread them before.
I just sold premiums $40 $50 out the money and they paid me a [ __ ] arm and a leg. It's actually insane. So, yeah, I'd wrap any of those up. Uh again, if you took advantage of the plays with a little bit more time, they moved a little slower, but they got you there. The ones that I guided you to should have been good.
You could have took more rest risk on the short term, but like I'm saying, if he just opened up the door, January is not off the table, bro. That was again that was everybody was expecting him to uh be very hawkish. He all you the hawkish the most hawkish thing out of all of this was homeboy pretty much saying that he's going to uh that they might pause pretty much this could be the pausing but he didn't shut down January [ __ ] Nick Timmerouse try to get him to say if he was going to raise rates so yeah bro all around left and right that was uh yeah bro that was crazy that was uh that was very crazy I I think he definitely switched gears on a lot of it and yeah, I don't think uh people were were really expecting that.
So, we'll see how it all plays out. But at this point, remember Thursdays are bad, but then then again, the media has been talking about Thursdays being bad. So, maybe that ends. But yeah, bro, I'm telling you, that was way too dovish. That was so dovish. You might you might you should probably be worried about the labor market slipping cuz I'm telling you that was nothing like Powell.
I think he did want to leave on a good note cuz again everybody on the Fed was well behaved. Powell did not shoot down anything. He did not go out of bounds. I mean I'm telling you this was all I think we picked up on it pretty early but then all throughout the meeting it all held every single aspect of that.
Uh none of that really pointed towards this idea that he was going to uh you know kind of you know not a foregone conclusion. He acted reasonable. That's what I'm saying. I that was before we even heard Powell I was telling you it seemed like everybody on the Fed was well behaved. But the reality is like he sounds like a person who observed tariffs properly for the first [ __ ] time.
I'm telling you. He's just saying yeah it's a one-time thing. It's already been a year. We'll find out by early next quarter, but even then at this point it hasn't gone that insane. They could manage it. But then he's like he's saying from AI to everything going on the jobs overcount. It really is about the labor market and you know he I think he did a good job today.
That's what I'm saying. I was kind of disappointed with him last time but seems like he brought it back in that way too. The market wasn't too bubbly. But yeah, that was Oh, dude. Nick, didn't I tell you Nick Timmerouse fell off? Y'all thought I was playing, bro. First, Nick Timmer's trying to make it seem this guy knows more history.
He wrote a damn book on it. He know more history of the Fed than all of y'all. And he's like, "Well, what if the Fed board members have a mutiny? What if they all go against it?" I'm like, "Come on now." He's like, "What if you raise rates?" Even Powell shut that down. So Powell didn't really even uh he said he said, "Yeah, you said you're correct on your history, but he's saying it's not." He said if anything you'll get two rate cuts worst case scenario it sounded like maybe even one but this idea of rate cuts uh rate hikes in general he shot that down and again he's he seems like as as he rightfully should be he is more worried about the labor market again you've been watching a lot of data even the quits yesterday so and then I I don't know man you should really be asking yourself what the f is gonna happen between now and January that is what I think is even more fascinating because whatever it is and he was talking about the jobs over account that's what kind of put everything in the game, bro.
So, I think that was absolutely fascinating. I think what your boy just did, bro. Uh yeah. No, he that again very different. The whole expectation was hawkish cut. That was a dovish cut. That was not uh that wasn't a hawkish cut. Powell, the Fed, they did not display any like it just wasn't as partisan.
You hear what I'm saying? Think about it. He paused. He gave you the cut as expected, but it just didn't feel like that was filled with politics. You notice nobody asked any dumb political questions. Everybody on the Fed, all the dot plot, everybody was reasonable. You could argue after that meeting, you could argue Fed Moran was unreasonable.
You see what I'm saying? Go look at the dot plot. Fed [ __ ] that 50 basis points. That's probably the most extreme action. This was too [ __ ] chill after all of these guys uh were tweaking out. I don't think it seems too dovish because again he even highlighted it. He corrected the bond market. I don't go look at TLT right now.
We'll see where TLT ends up. But that's the question that Michael McKe asked him and he's saying well everybody's worried about bonds. He's saying so everyone's worried about bonds because of inflation. And he's saying yeah well it doesn't matter. He said and then he explained it how the the contacts all said inflation but he's saying it's it's jobs.
He's saying they're not we're not worried about inflation. Again, he made sure today to finally this was the first time Powell actually supported and aligned with this idea that tariffs don't cause inflation. And if they were, it was going to be something that they could handle and that there's other, you know, orders of magnitude you should be following, uh, which would be protecting the job market and some other things.
So, and then again, he did acknowledge all of the [ __ ] spend is coming from AI. And so that's he was very realistic, bro. I'm shocked all around. Again, that was you guys saw when we first saw the SCP. I had to make sure I was looking at the right one. But all these guys just started behaving very, very normal after kind of being politically extreme just over the last couple months.
So good for you, Powell. I think you did very, very good. And I think Powell is definitely going to go out on a good note rather than I don't think he's going to walk out leaving like he had TDS cuz that was a good one. Unless something unless they unless something's about to get clapped by here in January.
Cuz that's what I'm saying. If you're going to say it's too dovish, maybe you should be worried about the labor market cuz that was it seems like he knows something. But then again, he did explain it. He said that there was like what a 40,000 overcount in jobs and that that's going to you know, when you factor that into even the data that they have, even if it's limited, he's saying how that's going to, you know, the way that's going to reflect that that's a lot of uh that's a lot of demand going down.
So even though there's a lot of AI spend, yeah, you'll get the tariff inflation, but it's small and and again, it's already by March, by April, that's it's done. You're going to know what's going to going on with it. I do think it is the jobs. I think something something is up with with the jobs. And now, but now January is on the table.
So now, if [ __ ] want to go and he said you're going to see the data, don't put too much weight on the data. But between now and January, any bad news will be good news. any bad labor news will be good news. The market even has a little bit of cover to ignore inflation as long as it doesn't [ __ ] skyrocket.
But yeah, it's uh that was a very very different POW than what you just witnessed on October 29th. So again, that was a Powell that brought the market down. And then again, it seems like John Williams John Williams was talking about the labor market. A lot of people have been, but yeah, all all of that tracks, dude.
It's very that was very weird, man. I was not I don't think anybody was expecting that. Everybody Everybody thought we were going to get five descents. They thought it was going to be a hawkish cut. There was again they The only thing hawkish was him pausing and he didn't even shut it down. He did not shut down January.
He explained it in a way that most people could probably understand it. Just like I'm saying, it wasn't that was the least politically biased he's been all [ __ ] year. So good for him, man. And good for everybody else on the Fed, at least because again, jobs is affects American people. You know what I'm saying?
Imagine for the last 12 months, you know, not being clear and having a policy that was making things more expensive for credit, for homes, all of these. And people are getting [ __ ] fired and losing their job left and right. And then THIS GUY'S LIKE, "INFLATION. DAMN IT. IF THE DONALD [screaming] TRUMP INFLATION, YOU KNOW, SO GOOD FOR HIM." It does seem like he is uh you know going to set the sails towards the actually the American people here towards the final end of his term.
But yeah, man, that's kind of nuts. That was uh that came out of left field comparatively cuz he had room to be a little bit more hawkish. And then again, this time we were all ready for it. But yeah, uh all around it was again, you guys even heard the reporters, they read it dovish, he answered it dovish that he did, he had every o they gave him every opportunity to [ __ ] on every single idea and he did not take it.
So yeah, man, we'll see. Merry Christmas. Jerome Pow's coming to town. He knows if there is job loss. He knows if tariffs raise prices. He knows if you bought puts or calls. So just hold for goodness sake. Hey, you better not cut. You better not hold. You better raise cuz they hate Donald Trump. Jerome Pow's coming to town.
Well, well, look at that. On that note, I'm going to go pee. I didn't get to go pee during all of that, so holy. How do you feel, man? How do you guys feel? Is anybody disappointed? Is anybody I'm surpris I am shocked. Oh [ __ ] I forgot we got Donald Trump now. He's with the Appleward to the couple.
He's chilling with Apple and he's chilling with Dell and Qualcomm. Uh when that happens, oil and gas and energy is so big. So that's why Donald Trump ain't going to talk [ __ ] I don't even know what number two number two. I can't believe Powell is just caving left and right. Energy like that. I think Powell got mad that we called him this time.
He knows. We saw through the [ __ ] I inherited very simply. I'm very surprised. Highest prices in history and I'm bringing them down really fast. They have the option to cut in January even though they shouldn't. And when energy comes, you know, we didn't really need that today. Only been here a short while.
We gave them a beautiful, beautiful. Oh, you're about to hit a new high. They would have destroyed our country. That's what I'm saying. We're getting back to 6,900. I think you're out of chop city, bro. And the Fed's going to be buying short-term bonds. You're 20 points away. I would argue maybe I'm early.
Maybe we front run it, but I think Chop City's done, bro. That's it. You're going to have to get through tomorrow and Friday and then depending on a rack earnings and a Broadcom, but this [ __ ] in a state like nobody's ever seen. He flipped. Worse than anything you've ever imagined. Worse than 1929 in my opinion.
Instead, we have the hottest country in the world. And we're going to keep it that way. But just to finish, uh, we inherited high prices. We're bringing them down very rapidly and we're bringing them down to very, very good levels. They'll soon be down at very good levels. Uh, Michael, please go ahead.
Absolutely. Um, as everyone in this room probably knows very well, leadership in science and technology has been foundational to our economic and national security for for decades. And because of the policies that you have championed and the private sector partnerships that you have made, America currently is leading the world in S&T and is benefiting all Americans every day.
The one thing that I want to remind this group of that many of you know, you know, the president has been arguing for American leadership in AI well before chat GPT was even invented. Uh the president signed executive order on artificial intelligence leadership in 2019 which set the stage for the revolution that we're seeing today.
Um, in the past year, we've built on that. We signed out the AI action plan in July of this year, which the president launched here in Washington along with three EOS. Um, and I know a lot of that effort is around creating a regulatory environment to allow for companies like yours to thrive and for the applications that you build to have the biggest impact on Americans every day.
So, thank you for everything that you do. And I know we're going to keep working together to make sure America is the home for the next great technological discoveries. Thank you, Michael. and Michael. Thank you, sir. Um, well, look, we greatly appreciate the focus the administration has on lowering energy costs and, you know, energy is the substrate of manufacturing at the industrial level and really uh incredibly important input to the economy.
We can't uh be competitive without a super lowcost energy industry and had a great meeting earlier today with Secretary Wright and really appreciate all the work that he's been doing. This is of course incredibly important when it comes to AI because it does consume uh a great deal of power. All the semiconductor manufacturing consumes a great deal of power.
Uh, another big area of focus for us is uh, how we can take all this great AI technology, the AI stack of of the uh, innovative companies here in in the United States and sell that around the world. And, you know, I'd like to ask Arvin to speak a little bit more about this. Arvin, thank you. Uh, so, [clears throat] Mr.
President, first we really would like to thank you for everything you're doing for economic growth. As you said, I completely agree with you. Economic growth then drives a lot of other benefits to everything else. We also want to thank you for all the work you're doing on deregulation and making things easier for business to participate in that growth.
Uh Michael spoke of the AI stack. It's incredibly important that under the action plans that you have laid out and microcatch just spoke of we really uh help promote the AI stack which is not semiconductors only those are incredibly important but the semiconductors it's software it's the systems which many of us here build and it is the software applications adopt the ability to take those to all our friends in countries so all the friendly countries is going to be very very important and we wish to work with your government to make sure that we can do that because otherwise we're afraid that competing countries are going to be able to get that stack.
So we would say that anything we uh that you're looking at that we can help you with so that you create a bigger and better IBM and hire a lot more people. Anything you need? A few countries. Uh we'll speak to members of your administration to make sure that those can go and that barriers get lowered for being able to do it quickly.
We agree guardrails are necessary but lower barriers would be very very helpful. You mean tariffs? No. Because are they are these country tariff are they tariffing you any you know making your life difficult? Are they doing anything else to make your life? [clears throat] It's the ability to take certain systems which have semiconductors inside them into these countries.
So right now because we have uh controls on where all the semiconductors can go then the entire system is restricted. That's what we want to do. The same as how many countries do that? Um probably a half dozen. So so I can tell you the countries already. I know yes I know every country very well and
we have ways of combating that quickly. So you let you let me know. And the last part I'd like to say is also like to thank you for all that you're doing to help modernize government. itself because we think that that's incredibly important. You know, you've made a number of announcements, but a couple that I'd just like to point out.
We worked with Commissioner Frank Bzignano to help make social security better. So, I would like to thank you for your help on that and we'll work with him on making IRS. He's done a fantastic job. He is. Frank's great. He's done a great job, Frank. He's had a great career. Actually left good luck a tremendous career
where his salary I think was a hundred times greater than it is now. Yeah. There is lip pluton headlines. and he was a he said he had to step back from deals. Fantastic. Because he kept trying to buy companies he already owned. We hope to help him replicate that now and our results. Very good. [clears throat] Thank you very much.
Good job, Christian. Please. Yes. Just a few points. I think first of all, Mr. President, thank you for your vision. I think thank you for understanding the importance of uh the American uh private sector in industry. I think in the growth of the economy. I want to just build on some of the things that were said by my colleagues.
I think we have uh built probably one of the most advanced uh technologies in the world and part of it is because I think the commitment to innovation that we have in the country but also the fact that it has been America technology for the world. So I think we have an incredible opportunity when when I think about what um uh Michael said about exporting AI.
I I had conversation with uh Secretary Howard now that their trade deals been made is an opportunity to really build on those trade deals and export I think u America technology and also as we think about the technology it's an important vector to drive the reindustrialization I think of the country uh with technology.
So we're incredibly excited about that. I think there's a big opportunity. I think it's the next um wave of uh growth that we can build on those trade agreements and I think he resonates what also Arvin said about the importance of the American technology stack and then I was just going to finish with two points there are two exciting things happening the word of technology coming right now one is as computing
AI is going to data center but to everything to cars to PCs and looks like we're behind on that one to run models that you can only run AI in the data center. You can AIG is massive computer on a computer for retail. Literally, nobody's [ __ ] even trading it with small server. Uh that might be your opportunity.
You're going to see the proliferation. There's only one, but it's the spreads are really really wide. Uh we had so be careful. The one that's showing is uh look at the last trade. Those are all jacked up. 6G were working. Yeah, the option chains tweaking like something's there in LA Olympics. And I think that's another opportunity for America to lead uh in the next world evolution.
So thank you. I think I thank you for the opportunity. Yeah. Be careful on that. But that's going that's 5%. I think driving that agenda. So we're into 6G now. I just finished 5G. I [clears throat] was I was a leader on 5G getting that done and now they're up to six. Let's do it again. What does that do?
Give you a little bit deeper view into somebody's skin. See how perfect it is. I like the cameras. The old days sort of just had a nice feature. Now they cover every little Oh, you're in good shape. You're not But I tell you, it's So you're the six is coming, huh? It's coming. Does it ever end? And what happens?
You'll be at the seven right before six kids. Yeah, bro. There's a AIG again. Anybody ever I thought we were late on it, but it's just that no one's even [ __ ] trading it. That's a massive name. as well for the openness of your organization and and your team. We always find people that wants to hear what we need and is willing to design programs that will support us.
So, thank you for here. We want you to just dominate the whole world in terms of what you do. It's a very important world and you're doing that. We're making it easy for you and that means you're going to do it faster. It's more jobs and a lot of good things happen. Right. Go ahead, Mr. President. Uh you may don't recall but in your first term you you actually sponsor the department I found the largest systems ever built and thanks to your sponsorship the department ownership owns the three top supercomputers in the world
and we built it with them and these are system that can do quintilion operations per second and that means we can solve I know I know a lot of we made that possible it's worked out very well solve problems so and now we're going to build the next generation again Good. Sounds good to me. Any questions, please?
Mr. President, Mr. President, thank you. Can you explain a little more about this Venezuelan oil tanker and uh share a little more information? Well, I'll let the people do it, but you see the result and I guess they probably have released the pictures by now or pretty soon. Good. We're 20 points from the high.
If we break the new high, we're out of chop city. There's a couple of opportunities for the crackheads to reemerge. And now we're even getting some M&A action still. That's kind of been the theme all month low key. countries have to hand over five years of social media history to to get a tourist visa.
Are you concerned at all that if that's implemented there would be a decline in tourism next year? And then what sort of material do you think we're doing so well? We just want people to come over here. It's safe. We want safety. We want security. We want to make sure we're we're not letting again Broadcom and Oracle.
You could take advantage of those premiums while the crackheads are going for the for the earnings. I can't believe those those still filled. drug. I'm talking shorting premium. If you have any plays that were not as up from the run up 11,000, you can literally get 90% back and then they'll be $30 out the money.
Exactly. Half of them committed more than one. Yeah. And then there was that one. We're getting rid of them. There's only the AIGs. You got to be a little careful on there. We put them in jail because we're afraid Yeah, those already hit actually. Those are up 200%. Be careful. We've taken a very tough stand.
And you see where we've been like Washington DC now. People walking streets are going to res That's crazy. That's what I'm saying. AIG is massive. Beautiful thing to see. So that's what kind of made me doubt it, but that's why it's hard to find a play on there. But yeah, you're getting the dynamic and then there's a rack.
Terrible thing happened two weeks ago with terrorism with regard to two National Guards people that are so phenomenal. what is no longer with us and one amazingly we weren't looking with great hope on that you know that Andrew and uh today he got out of bed actually got stood up didn't say anything it's a little early but the chances of Andrew other than his mother who said nope he's going to be okay his mother was the most positive person and uh could be that she'll be right it's pretty amazing made made progress It was uh both of them were so badly hurt we never we never thought that one could survive.
So looks like Andrew is doing pretty well. The winner of the Nobel Prize dedicated the prize to you the Nobel Peace Prize and she left Venezuela at great risk who make it to the ceremony. U there is a risk she could be arrested actually. What would happen if she's arrested? What message do you send or would you send to Nicholas Maduro?
Well arrested by who? the Nobel Prize committee and that's probably the ones that would arrest. I don't know anything about it. She was very gracious. She said I should have gotten the Nobel Prize and I don't you know I mean I'm doing this to save lives. I'm not doing it for any other reason. But no, I don't like if she would be arrested.
I wouldn't be happy with it. Mr. President, Senate Republicans currently have a healthc care proposal that would take away let those ACA subsidies expire and then put about $1,000 in people's HSAs. Do you think that is enough money? And how do you ensure that people who will uh see those tax subsidies expire won't see their health care cost skyrocket?
Well, the unaffordable care act, which is Obamacare, they call it now the unaffordable because it's unaffordable. It used to be called the affordable, but it was never affordable. It was always bad. It was basically designed for the benefit of insurance companies. And what we're doing is we want all of the billions and billions of dollars that went to insurance companies to go directly to the people
and they can buy their own healthcare and people love it. I don't know if the Democrats still dying. How much time he got? 12 minutes. Obamacare was finalize your plays, brother. But we're going to see. I mean, we the Republicans, I can tell you, want the money to go to the people and we're winning that battle.
The Democrats having a hard time with it because they're in the pocket of the insurance companies. Yes, please. You spoke to some European leaders today, I [clears throat] think, sir. U did you tell us about that? And and is there a new revised peace plan that Ukraine has presented? the leaders of France we spoke to and Germany and UK
all very good leaders very good friends of mine and we discussed Ukraine in pretty strong words and we'll see what happens I mean we're waiting to hear answers CB denies making an offer on Twitter we're not spending any money in Ukraine we're it's up six to see if CB bounces basically missiles and everything else to NATO
and NATO is paying us and then they distribute it to who they want. I guess they're mostly distributing to Ukraine. But but we're not spending money. But you know, we are we're spending a lot of time and a lot of effort. A lot of time because last month 27,000 soldiers were killed. Both think of it.
27 thou that's if you take a football game and take half the stadium that's 27,000. So 27,000 soldiers were killed. Russian and Ukrainian soldiers were killed. And I want to see that stop. We'll find out. Look, there are a lot of things happening right now. A lot of people say it's closer than it's ever been.
It's a war that would have never start if I were president would have never started. It's a war that should never have started. But we'll we'll have it figured out. I think with the within a pretty short You say very strong terms, sir. Could you explain that? Well, I think we had some uh little disputes about people and we're going to see uh how it turns out.
And we said before we go to a meeting, we want to know some chilling out though. They would like us to go to a meeting and then Friday in Europe. Earnings are good though. You might have a good Thursday, but again, everybody has picked up on the whole Thursdays are bad. The cuts. Yeah, they already affected the dollar already, but given the way Powell talked about it, it might be a little limited because, you know, if they really are worried about jobs loss and that happens, that would make the dollar kind of stabilized.
The whole thing is ridiculous. So, it'll be interesting. But for now, the immediate effect was a lower dollar that oil. You'll get that information later. Okay. And have you spoken to Maduro since your last conversation? Has there only been one conversation? And when you say that the European leaders want to have a meeting over the weekend, are you talking about with Zilinski?
Okay. 10 minutes with Zilinski and us. And you said in an interview yesterday that you think it's time for Zilinsky to start accepting things. What things are you talking about? I think he has to be realistic. And uh I do wonder about, you know, how long is it going to be till they have an election?
It's a democracy. It's a long time. They haven't had an election in a long time. It's losing a lot of people. And uh it's possible that the people you know if you look at the polls uh I will say 82% there was a poll came out 82% of the people are demanding a settlement be made. Ukrainian people they want to see a settlement be made.
I understand that they're losing thousands and thousands of people a week. They want to see it ended and I do say you know at what point when do they have a an election in Ukraine? That's not casting dispersions on anybody, but they do have a massive corruption situation going on there. And they do say, you know, when when are they people are asking this question, when do they have an election?
Are they going to have an election or are they going to just keep it going like this? So, I think it's time to get that war settled. And I think it's a war that can be settled, but uh it takes two to two to tangle them. about the new hunters of Warner Brothers Discovery to make changes at CNN, big changes.
And have you spoken to Jared about it? What are you doing with him or are you just sort of wall so what do you want to know? What changes do you want to see? What do you want to know? Well, I'm not involved in that. I I will be probably involved maybe involved in the decision. It depends. You have some good companies bidding on it.
I think the people that have run CNN for the last long period of time are a disgrace. I think it's imperative that CNN be sold because you certainly wouldn't want to put uh people just leave those people with some money good money and CNN so you know they can spend even more poison longterm only here man come on
I wouldn't want to see the same company that's why I'm saying it's protecting you because they already moved I thought we were late on it I just somehow found one now they don't have too much money so don't get clapped their value I guess based on the bids you got value. But I think uh I think CNN should be sold because I think terrible people CNN right now CNN right now
are either corrupt or incompetent. That'll be that'll be a factor in the decision making because you know we've got some well in my in my mind but you know I can be talked out of that by some very talented people that we have antitrust people. But I just think that the people that have run CNN into the ground by the way nobody watches.
Very few people watch. I don't think they should be entrusted with running CNN any longer. So, I think any deal should All right, get ready. Final five in one minute. CNN is part of and wrap it up. Again, if you're going to go for any of the uh people that are running earnings plays at this point, just about finalizing them and then
set up for tomorrow. And let's see. Again, tomorrow is going to be 50/50. It's usually bad on Thursday, but all of this played good. We'll see how people take it, what the bond effect is. and all of that. And then also the follow-up fed speakers, they come in on Friday, I believe. Are you worried at all about
Whoa. 51 suspected cases of botulism from the FDA confirmed by exposure to by heart nutrition infant formula. Who makes that? And even if you do a good job and some people say we've done the best opening 10 months in history, you know who makes that by heart infant formula. Who who's done better? We ended eight wars.
We have the strongest economy. We have $18 trillion coming. Oh yeah. This had it in the beginning of the year. That was on the third, but now it's raised to 51 people. In your standard, right? Yes, sir. Even for that guy. 18. I don't know if it's publicly traded. But we have $18 trillion coming in. Pretty amazing, right?
Well, be careful. Bulism and infant formula. Even a little piece of that. That's But uh so we've done a great job. But for whatever reason, and nobody's been able to give me an answer, when you win the presidency, you seem to lose the midterms. Even if you win the presidency by a lot, and you do a great job as president.
[clears throat] You know, some presidents have done good. And they've lost I think it's like two times by B Y A G- A R T won. It was announced on December 13th, but now the FDA saying it rates to I don't know why, but that's 51 and 10 cases. Identify expanded from doing great. So there's something about an expanded definition of exposure.
There's final five better with all this money pouring in. We have factories being built and forget about AI. We have AI more than anybody. We're leading AI by a lot. But we have many car companies coming in from Canada, from Mexico. They're closing. They're coming in from Mexico. They're coming in from Canada, from Japan, from Europe, all over Europe, Germany, all over Europe.
Uh, I mean, we're doing great, but for whatever reason, it doesn't matter how well they're doing, you know, good and bad, bad, you understand. But when even when a pres president is doing well, they seem to not do well in the midterms. So, we're going to try and change it. There should be no reason for it.
If anybody at the table can figure out, Bruce, a nice psychological reason, but uh so I want to win and winning the midterms is important. Give us a stimulus check. People want us to win the midterms and I think we have we have great spirit. We should win the midterms. Yeah. Under Joe Biden's administration during CO specifically, Biden removed the safety standards on abortion drugs.
Now I'm hearing from a lot of pro liifers that are very anxious because yesterday blueberg reported that your FDA is slow walking a review of the abortion drugs that Secretary Kennedy promised. Yeah. Do you want to see that? I don't know. I'll find out. I'll ask him. Do you want to see? I don't think they're slow walking anything, but I'll find out.
Any update on the the clashes between Thailand and Cambodia, sir? Yeah, I think I'll have to make a phone call. I was going to say that the Thailand and Cambodia, one of the eight that I settled, they've been fighting for a long time. They've been fighting for a very long time, many, many, many decades.
But I got along great with both. I found they were two great leaders, two great people, and I settled it once. I think I can do it pretty quickly. I think we we're scheduling a phone call tomorrow Mr. President with Thailand on the Fed with Thailand. If you, you know, just to answer Steve, with Thailand and Cambodia, I think I think I can get them to stop fighting.
Who else can do that? Think of it. Said late wars. Every once in a while, one will flame up again and I have to put out that little flame. I have to put it out. But we're going to put it out again. So, I think I'm scheduled to speak to them tomorrow and see if I can. It was unfortunate what happened.
I mean, I know exactly what happened. I got it started a little bit, but uh we'll see if we can All right, Chad. Get ready. Not much time left. You should have finalized a good day of surprising Powell. Couple more earnings. I think the rest of this week got exciting. And then you're going to get some data next week too, brother.
Is it true? So rapper checks. We're going to keep the uh rapper on chair Kevin announce your decision within the next two weeks. Is that correct? Maybe. Are you doing your finalist today? Well, I'm meeting with Kevin Walsh today. So I'm meeting with him. Oh, is that going to change the odds? I sort of have a very good idea.
But do you have a again I'm looking for SOMEBODY [screaming] this one? Honestly, our rate should be much lower. Our rate should be the lowest rates in the world because all these countries you see go low rates. Wrap it up, Chad. Don't Man of them are low because of us. Let's go. It's got suck so much money out of us.
But that's not happening anymore. We should have the lowest rates in the world. And without us, none of them really exist as an economy. I mean, I can show you these really prime, really wonderful countries. They've had nothing but success. It's because they they took so much out of the United States.
I mean, it's one of those little problems. Uh I want to see that when we do well, we're rewarded for doing well. Not the way it's been for the last pretty long period of time. Are you asking these pledge to lower rates? I'll be asking questions. in the Let me get a GG. If Oracle comes out soon, I'll stay, but I do got to get going.
I'll drop you. No, I haven't really thought too much about him. He's been Well, let me get a good game, bro. That was a good game, bro. I'm surprised. And God bless you, baby. I hope y'all had a great year. Shout out to the long term. We'll see if the crackheads come back. Does the bubble reemerge? This power remain in the truth.
They have cocaine factories that find out. But for real, God bless y'all, man. Members, non-members, every single one of y'all. I love you. Let's go, baby. Get ready for 2026. You got a lot in store. Are you going to use the discipline or not? Because we don't like people when they kill people. And they sell drugs.
They kill them in the United States. And Colombia is a major manufacturer of drugs. meaning cocaine in particular. Oh, as you know. Um, thank you, Mr. President. Multiple House Republicans in recent weeks, days, have been critical of Speaker Mike Johnson. I wanted to ask you if you're still confident in the speaker to keep his conference together ahead of the midterms.
And how often are you speaking about him? I think Mike Johnson is great. You know, he's had a majority of two, three, four, then back to two. We actually Thank you for not getting one heart attack. You guys know, you see there was thousands of you and thank you. I hope you get a longterm if you're new.
I hope you realize out of any stock chat in the world, I've never seen again. I banned anybody that get in the way. Y'all were perfectly focused approved. Great big beautiful bill. I call it the give me give me four. Give me four lion, not a 100 sheep. To me, it's a great Give me people focused on the goal, baby.
Are you kidding me? The biggest regulation cuts in history. It was beautiful, Chad. Y'all did great, man. So, I appreciate I appreciate it. No tax on overtime. That's what I'm talking about. I think Mike Johnson's been a great speaker. That's what I'm talking about. That you want to see another big package move through capital.
All right. When does Oracle come out? We don't need it because we got everything. You know, this was supposed to be 17 bills. I got to go, dude. I think it was my idea, but you know, with the concurrence of people that have done this a long time, and I said, why don't we make it one bill because it's very hard to get things approved by the Democrats
or just comes out at 2 p.m. for the call. Oracle should come out any minute now. 17 bills, we wouldn't have gotten a third of them approved. It was something great for everybody. So, they're estimating 16.19. Good to see the event last night, Pennsylvania. Huge crowd turned out there. Big crowd. It seemed like uh rally Trump was in prime condition last night.
You enjoyed it. Can you just give me your thoughts on that? Then I do have a a question on the gold card. Last night was amazing in Pennsylvania. We had a tremendous crowd. It was like freezing and people thousands of people trying to get in. It was an amazing uh actually and I think people really enjoyed it.
I enjoyed it. You could tell that. I can tell that you enjoyed it. I enjoyed it. I really Well, you know, it's easy to enjoy when you do a good job and you know when you can talk about things in a very positive way. It's hard not to say we have potentially the greatest economic boom in the history of the world.
It's being built right now and when it opens there will be nothing ever in history like what's happening in our country. And you know Washington DC is safe and Memphis is now look at Memphis. Crime is down 60% in Memphis. We just got there three weeks ago. Not in less. No, y'all did good. I'm telling you,
we're going to have uh I think I had to ban maybe like two people. New Orleans, which is the people trying to pump a play in the middle of a group of people there. And that's it. Y'all did great. I'm not going to put hide behind all the good people. Y'all lost them. No, we do agree, bro. You've already been killing people.
These people are That's why I said if y'all want to go back very tough people if they want to go back, you let me know. Great Patriots, but they are the toughest. either double down next year or take any nonsense in every place we go. We knock down. Too bad that All right, man. Chicago. I'm not waiting until two.
I got We can save Chicago very quickly. But even that, we're doing it on a minimal basis until, you know, at some point we'll just go in and do what we have to do. If the governor does it wiser, they got a bad governor. I can't believe Powell today, bro. I I would say they're both in. He really did it like that.
It's hard to believe that people don't want to stop crime. We could stop the crime in Chicago in about two weeks. Go ahead. My question is on the on the gold card is, and I apologize if I missed the answer to this. Is there a limit to how many gold cards these companies can buy? Howard? So, the the program is part of the
Is Oracle out? So, we're just going to have Yep. Great. Uh, EPS 226, net 6.1, revenue was 16.1. I think they missed a little bit. American, hold on. Software 5.88. I don't think it was that good. Why' they make it pop? That could have been a knee-jerk than average Americans. And the idea is President Trump.
He wants to Yeah, EPS was 226 people into America. So visas. Yeah, there it is. Now just full of the software was 6. Oh, they killed it on software green card and then net was 6.1 cloud was expected to be 792 they came in at 798 hardware was 776 estimate was 722 Q2 5.88 and it also in addition to that help
software they beat on everything but it doesn't seem that big. I don't see the guidance yet get somebody number one in this class at the Wharton School of Finance. I'mma read through it, but be on the numbers. But remember, they need a [ __ ] monster of a beat. Often times they'll say, "I'm sorry, sir.
You got to get out of here. You have 24 hours." Performance obligations are up 438 on the year up to 523 billion. So they're still guiding the half a trillion dollar companies. You know, it's needed for others, but but really it's it's basically better form of a green card. And you can't get green cards.
They are impossible to get remaining performance obligations increased 68 billion up 15% sequentially by new commitments from NIA and Nvidia. Meta Meta and Nvidia. He's a friend. She's a friend. These are two. They sold a because they no longer think it's strategic to design and manufacture our own chips in our cloud.
Not going to be damaging each other. But Elisa is fantastic and Bruce is there. Two fantastic people. Multicloud database up 817. I always hate it when two very good friends of mine are running and I hope there's not a lot of declared a quarterly dividend of.5. I'm looking for the guidance ends up being much stronger because of it.
A lot of times that happens in politics. Everything was in line but and then the again they're still guiding the York half a trillion [ __ ] I'm looking for next quarter. I know pretty much at the end of February what's going to happen and I'll probably have to, you know, do what I want to do. Interest expense was a billion dollars.
I hope he's running now. So that's on that credit [ __ ] We have two very talented people. Either one should win against the Democrats. Mr. President, every other legacy story lately focuses on one of your cabinet members predicting that you're going to fire this one or you're going to get rid of that one.
Of all your cabinet members, who would you perceive as the most under attack? Well, I think my cabinet's fantastic. I read these same stories that I'm unhappy with this one or that one, and I'm not. I think the cabinet's done a great job. Um, I read the Oracle's committed to a policy of chip neutrality with all CPU and GPU providers.
That's not exactly right. I would say very much the opposite. Pete Hexad has been phenomenal. Uh, I read a story recently. I'm unhappy with Christie. Yeah, synopsis don't move, but again, Oracle is the one with all the private credit issues in the history, the half a trillion craziness, which again, that's hitting the wire, but and they're still maintaining that.
You're going to have to wait till the call. I don't see the uh two three guide or four guide. I think I'll have to think about can't have everything. Can't have everything. He's he's doing great. Well, Howard's done really well and Scott's done really well. We have just a fantastic cabinet. Uh, I'll tell you who's uh doing a great job is Linda McMahon.
We're bringing education back to the states where it belongs. Education is going, we can't do any worse than we're doing right now. Let the states run it. You know, if you go back to some of our states that are run so well, so good. I would say 40 of them and then you'll have trouble with five and you'll have bigger trouble tax [ __ ]
another five but you have 35 we need to see the guidance on education so again they talked about the performance obligations going even higher but we don't have a Q3 guide yet we have uh so that's the only part that's missing Denmark Norway I forgot about a few others uh I think if you go to Iowa and you go to Indiana and You go to I can name
a lot of states I think it would be almost the equivalent or maybe better Adobe guided 625 to 638 estimate was 623 fullyear EPS 259 to 2610 uh estimate was 25.89 89. So I think they beat Well, we'll do it early. First quarter 455 to 460 piece. I'm going to It'll be one of the most legendary boards. But just was 550.
Yeah, they beat on it. It's mostly going to be they beat on this. They beat on this quarter by on cents above the high end full year 1790 to 1810 of the most important countries. Mr. President, they all want to be on. It wasn't 6.91 6.19. They came in slightly higher above the top for a living. Yeah, Dolby did good and guided up smaller margin but the heads the kings and the presidents, prime ministers, they all want to be on the board of
the video up to last night's rally. Can you clarify? You have called the affordability crisis as a democratic hoax, but you also want to make America affordable again. know the word the word that they use is a hoax and because they're the ones that caused the problem. I'm only No, I'm talking about when you you know you're trying to say it a different way now.
It's pretty simple though. It's pretty simple. Uh it's a hoax where they created the problem. They're the ones that gave the high prices. So when they use the word affordability, they shouldn't be using that word because they're the ones that created this problem. uh they created the highest inflation in history and they created the highest prices in history and now we have to get those things down but they go they say affordability they never discuss it they just say
the election affordability well we'll see Oracle you need the guide so far all slightly better the job you know the sad thing is pump the future again the whole chip neutrality thing is interesting people come through and then Adobe did good slight raise synopsis. I didn't look into it yet. I just care about the broader market now for the rest of the week.
I'm sure we'll find out by the morning legally. Um, but if you take a look and nobody fact nobody cares about the bann of you. Enjoy your night. I don't know if we're going to have a video tonight. It'll all depend. I'll let you know. But I think our work is cut out for us, man. I think very, very easy.
We ride through. And then again, next week's data that's going to get a little bit more interesting. But you say, sir, you I love you, Chad. God bless you. Finger to the sky. When you fix something, God be the glory. You said, you can't talk about God alone every day. But remember, you choose discipline.
You choose direction. You choose your pain, brother. Choose your frustration. THE CRISIS OF INFLATION IN THIS country's and with that came the highest prices that we've ever All right, guys. You want to use those time of year, Chad? I got to go. God bless you. Bye. Merry Christmas Chrysler Christmas from my family and misses.
I hope you get the things that's not even on your wish list. I hope you find money doing laundry or the dishes. You a real one. The season will be gray. I pray you never see traffic and you never run in late. When you ask your crush out, she'll say yes to the day. And nobody getting mad if you leave food upon your plate.
Merry Christmas. It got meaning if you give it some. I'm always praying for you. And I'm praying for your little ones. Every time you look them in the face. No, you never done. Nah, let that be motivating. I hope every drink you get comes pre-shaking. I hope your Uber don't cancel and is really patient.
If you lose your wallet, nobody will take it. They'll return it. Yep. See, I'm just happy. If you happy, G. Every sweet you'll eat this year be made from zero calories. These are all the blessings that I wish for both you and me. So, welcome to the family. But I got a gift for the haters, too. I hope everywhere you go runs out of room.
I hope every song you sing is sung out of tune. Everyone is happy and you're the one that's in the mood. I hope the dinner great you get there they run out of food. I hope you step on Legos every time you enter rooms. I hope you meet a pretty girl but it's just a dude and he doesn't even tell you by day two.
Hope you can't find your keys cuz someone probably stole your car. I hope your Christmas tree falls and then cause a fireball. Hope you find easy parking and then they tow your car for no reason at all. I hope everywhere you go has construction. Everything you have to build will come with no instructions.
I hope it doesn't function. I hope you miss the pothole. Avoid it safely, then drive into the Hudson. I hope your family likes you less than all your cousins. I hope you're stressed cuz you're bad at trading options. Actually, I hope it hits. And then you get a gift. Then you feel like you can't miss.
Then triple up your [ __ ] Get in the money quick. Then Robin Hood goes down and your orders don't submit. Then the problem still persists by the time it gets refreshed. I hope all of it'll dip.
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